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2023 Letter

• lippihom 3y ago
  Love these annual letters from Dan. It was a joy meeting him randomly in Berlin years ago and I'm glad to see him having carved out such an interesting part of the internet for himself.
• simonebrunozzi 3y ago
  I am pleasantly surprised to see that he attended the "walk and talk" organized by Craig Mod, also discussed previously on HN [0]. I am really inspired by that, and I am trying to organize one in either the Dolomites (Italy), or in Venice and its Lagoon (also Italy), which would have to be adapted to the characteristics of a lagoon with islands [2]. Anyway, if this is of interest to you, please say hi to WalkAndTalkItaly@gmail.com and let me know why you'd like to do it, and if you'd prefer Venice or Dolomites. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38613170 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38613170 [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolomites https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolomites [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_Lagoon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_Lagoon
  • mdrzn 3y ago
    Very interested in a walk and talk in Italy! I'll shoot you an email
• deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
• latchkey 3y ago
  > I’ve never felt great enthusiasm for crypto. After chatting with these young Chinese, I became more tolerant of their appeal. Digital currencies are solutions looking for problems most everywhere in the Western world, but they have real value for people who suffer from state controls. The crypto community in China has attracted grifters, as it has everywhere else. But it is also creating a community of people trying to envision different paths for the future. This is where most HN commenters fall down. It is easy to sit in "the west" and hate on crypto, but once you've experienced capital controls first hand in poorer countries, it all starts to make more sense. It goes beyond just paying for things. I'll point out my favorite post here as well: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26238410 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26238410
  • aaron695 3y ago
    [dead]
  • kome 3y ago
    ...yeah, but also capital controls make sense. you don't want foreign currency to inflate your economy, as you don't want too much of your currency going abroad. it's not like capital controls are made for fun. Ofc they are not in the interest of everybody, but usually they are for the greater good. And despite what the IMF was hammering in the 90s: yes, they really work. (also the IMF backpedaled on this)
    • latchkey 3y ago
      > but usually they are for the greater good In your opinion. That is like Jamie Dimon saying that bitcoin is a pet rock and is only used for bad stuff, while also being Epstein's banker. https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/1749820534790205767 https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/1749820534790205767
  • keyle 3y ago
    The problems with crypto are two folds and I think it's resounding in HN in general: A- it festers with scams and scammers. B- it uses astronomic resources world-wide. Both of these have counter points but the overwhelming majority denies it credibility. I have for example envisionned systems like "proof of latency" but have never engaged in proving it seriously, due to the overwhelming putrid nature of the crypto world. I hope some day it turns, I personally love the ideology behind it.
    • latchkey 3y ago
      Those two points are valid and I don't deny the credibility at all. As someone who's been involved in crypto for quite some time, I can add 1000 other items to that list. At the same time, I also think it is wrong to deny/ignore/discount the counter points. In my eyes, there are always two sides to any story.
  • kelnos 3y ago
• echelon 3y ago
  > There still are some corners in China that are relatively permissive. One of these is Yunnan’s Dali, a city on the northern tip of highland Southeast Asia, where I spent much of 2022. There, one can find the remnants of a drug culture as well as a party scene for an occasional rave. But even Dali is becoming less tenable these days since the central government has cottoned on that the city is a hub for free spirits. The tightening restrictions emanating from Beijing are spreading to every corner of the country. “China feels like a space in which the ceiling keeps getting lower,” one person told me. “To stay means that we have to walk around with our heads lowered and our backs hunched.” This is incredibly sad, and the analogy is both palpable and frightening.
  • jbm 3y ago
    [flagged]
• Lucasoato 3y ago
  It’s rare to witness such an unbiased view of China, US, and their problems. I dream of a world in which these biggest countries unite together to grant peace and basic human rights to every person on Earth.
  • corethree 3y ago
    It's hard for humans to be unbiased. Part of the reason is he seems to be an ABC. ABCs are attached to both worlds, and thus are likely to feel pride and shame for both countries. Sometimes they will feel more loyalty towards one world over the other and sometimes the loyalties cancel out where you're left with a rare person who can look at the situation completely impartially.
    • seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      A lot of ABCs have more of a chip on their shoulder about China, or for that matter immigrants from China itself. Every Saturday, a bunch of falun dafa protesters are out in downtown Seattle protesting against the CCP, most of them just Chinese Ayis (middle aged women). Gordon Chang “china will implode” articles are a popular straw man whenever any news articles mentions China possibly going into recession.
      • corethree 3y ago
        It's a whole spectrum. But almost everyone on the face of the earth has some bias towards their own country. The percentage of impartiality among ethnic minorities born in the US like ABCs have a tendency to be much higher then normal. I wouldn't say it's the majority but it's definitely much higher then normal.
    • leosanchez 3y ago
      ABC = American born Chinese?
      • mangamadaiyan 3y ago
        Likely. Not to be confused with ABCD.
• maxglute 3y ago
  Glad Dan decided to keep doing these letters.
  • kelnos 3y ago
    Sounds like he's taking next year "off", though, to write a book.
• zubairq 3y ago
  I loved the "elephants nose cold to the touch"! Makes me think I need to get out, travel and explore more!
• wizwit999 3y ago
  [flagged]
• kelnos 3y ago
  It was interesting to read about younger Chinese people, and their dissatisfaction with life in China. At the risk of being too US/West-centric, I do worry a lot about Western domination declining, and China taking its place. I fundamentally do not believe that their system of government is good for people, and for the world at large. (To be clear, I'm fine with US/Western dominance declining over time, but I would like to see something I feel is equivalent or better taking its place, or, preferably, sharing its place.) So in a way it's good to read about two things in concert: 1) Xi tightening things up and cracking down harder and harder on free expression, and 2) younger Chinese people -- despite the propaganda I hear they're exposed to -- becoming disillusioned and frustrated by it. Overall it sucks: I certainly don't wish more and more censorship etc. being foisted upon a billion of my fellow humans. But I also don't want to see a totalitarian regime being the main dominant world power. Of course, dissatisfied young people -- and probably not even that many when compared to the whole of young Chinese people in China -- don't guarantee any kind of meaningful change over time. I'm sure there are plenty of young people in China who will happily step into the party's shoes once the current leadership's time has past.
  • huijzer 3y ago
    > I do worry a lot about Western domination declining, and China taking its place. What gives me hope is that we’re not driving in North Korean or Russian cars, nor use their chips, or airplanes. The Soviet Union tried to be a leader in all these fields. I know China is not Russia, but in many things it is. How many Western companies, for example, have the government sit on their board? Top-down economic planning has never worked and I don’t see why it would be different now.
    • kelnos 3y ago
      I think there are different levels to "things working" though. A country can be using an economic and governing system that ultimately doesn't work, but still have enough weight to throw around for a while, enough to do plenty of damage to others. Russia is clearly showing that right now in Ukraine. Even if Ukraine prevails (far from certain), the country may never be the same. China may pull something similar (and be more successful at it) in Taiwan in the near future. I do worry about Chinese products in the classes you mention. OP notes that China became the world's largest automobile exporter in 2023 (by units sold, not by revenue). China still can't rival Intel or AMD in chips, but they're gaining ground all the time, and have some decent (though not superb) competitors in the ARM market, with inroads into RISC-V, I believe. The Comac C919 airliner isn't exactly all over yet, and I don't know how safe, relable, and airworthy it is (not that Boeing has done well in that regard lately), but it exists, regardless of whether or not the allegations that they stole IP from US manufacturers is true.
• dentonliu 3y ago
  I haven't traveled to many places like the author, nor have I ever been in contact with those young people in the mountains. To comment on the whole of China based on the comments and feelings of these people is probably one-sided. Asking these people in the mountains or those living overseas is as ridiculous as investigating on the train if everyone has bought tickets. Western networks always have such inherent prejudices, when criticizing our leaders, they always criticize our system. But when criticizing their own country's leaders, they never consider the issue of the system. Isn't it true that those obnoxious leaders in the West were elected under their system? Or is it not because they have that kind of system or culture that they would elect more and more unsatisfactory leaders? There is an ancient saying in China, "I reflect on myself three times a day", while the Western world never does "self-reflection", only "others reflection".
• sscarduzio 3y ago
  [flagged]
  • khazhoux 3y ago
    This was useful. I understand why gpt summaries are frowned upon, but this is a fine TLDR for anyone looking for one. And you’ve properly attributed it.
  • badcppdev 3y ago
    Thank you for reminding me of how important it is to read the full original text.
• yyyfb 3y ago
  I do local walk and talk all the time with my alumni association and other hiking / biking meetup groups. No need to travel so far for it
• austin-cheney 3y ago
  [flagged]
  • devjab 3y ago
    Well, a lot of people flag those topics because Israel is part of our western hegemony as far as political influence goes. What I find the most interesting is how uncritical we in the west are of the raise in authoritarianism in our own countries. I’m Danish and all of our internet traffic is monitored and saved by our ISPs on behalf of our own government. A government who recently tried to have a former minister of justice and the former chief of the military spy agency (not sure what the English word for that is) tried for treason, not because they did anything wrong, but because they sort of leaked that our secret police let the NSA monitor our traffic because while it’s illegal for the PET to monitor Danish citizens directly, it’s not illegal for them to use surveillance information gathered by the NSA… Obviously we’re not living in a totalitarian state like the citizens of China, but it’s not like we’re really living in a democratic paradise either and things are continuing slipping in the authoritarian direction. With the US likely to re-elect Trump and several European nations going for far right wing or very conservative governments it’s not like there will be a lot of “help” from our foreign partners either. But to return to your question, any political topic related to the west is often flagged on HN. I suspect this particular topic, and topics focused on China stay here because a lot of people actually find them interesting. It’s not exactly hard to find your information on Israel and Palestine, and almost none of it is related to HN, but insights into China especially with a tech focus aren’t easy or common in much of western media. This particular input is also very unbiased and well written on top of being very interesting. Where as a lot of the conflict or political topics that get flagged are mostly propaganda of sorts.
    • austin-cheney 3y ago
      > (not sure what the English word for that is) That is several different positions in the US: Director of National Intelligence and Director of the CIA are probably the most prominent.
• amadeuspagel 3y ago
  > It’s easy to forget that the Politburo is entirely made up of old men. I wonder whether there are any other countries entirely governed by old men ... and women.
• amadeuspagel 3y ago
  > One of the questions I ask my SF friends is what the entrepreneurial 20-year-olds are doing these days. Are they starting a billion-dollar company, or are they more interested in becoming a memelord who is trying to incite a movement on the Internet? I’m not sure we’re seeing a surge of exciting startup creation, but we sure are seeing a lot more online craziness. This is a fun question. These things could mean the same thing: Starting a website. But too many people think that "becoming a memelord" and "inciting a movement" means trolling around on someone elses website. The only reason people start their own website today is to start a billion-dollar company.
• amadeuspagel 3y ago
  > I’ve written seven annual letters. Every year, a few weeks after I’ve published a letter, I would open up a new notepad for the following year’s. That’s where I put in data, observations, and book recommendations that should go into the next year’s letter. These notes are not organized. In the last two weeks of the year, I sort through everything, try to coax out a structure, and then write the damn thing. I’ve complained about how much work it demands, but I also want to say that it has been great fun. I don’t understand why more people aren’t writing them. It’s not just about sharing your thoughts and recommendations with the rest of the world. Having this vessel that you’re motivated to fill encourages being more observant and analytical in daily life too. I think the reason that more people aren't writing them is that they don't have the patience, that they want to immidiately tweet every thought they have, get feedback, approval/disapproval.
• userabchn 3y ago
  In the past few months I have talked (separately) to three Chinese students who were doing PhDs in different countries. I asked each what their plans were for the future, and was struck by how determined all three were to not return to China. This is obviously a biased sample, since they already chose to do their PhD outside China, but conditions in China, such as 996 culture, definitely seem to be pushing some talented young people away.