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A drought has forced authorities to further slash traffic in Panama Canal
- oneshtein 3y agoThis may create a window of opportunity for Russia, because Russia communicates with China and NK via land routes, while Western allies are separated by ocean.
- saagarjha 3y agoOpportunity to do what?
- oneshtein 3y agoTo disrupt supply routes and perform whatever they have in their mind. Russia switched to war-time mode, so they think that they can win the war with NATO. Massive disruption in trade routes may shift balance of powers in democratic countries, which Russians may want to exploit. Russians are strong at informational front, they are strong liars and shadow players.
- pmontra 3y agoWhatever, but moving a significant part of all the freight from China to Europe through Russia would probably require quite an improvement on the current railway infrastructure. It's probably a multi track system going all the way through China, Russia (with maybe Kazakhstan or Mongolia in between if they care about shortcuts), Belarus and finally to Poland. Then maybe upgrades to the European railways too to handle the excess traffic coming from the wrong direction (EU harbors are not in the East.) It's not something they can do in a short time and it takes a lot of political collaboration. I think that it's easier for them to win the war, if they can win it, and start buying Western Europe politicians again. Or just start buying them again while the war goes on.
- oneshtein 3y agoRussians will not supply EU in case of war with NATO. :-/
- juanani 3y ago[dead]
- AdamN 3y agoRail/Road doesn't compare to ships in terms of throughput by weight so the land route to China from Russia, even if the freight train system were robust, would not handle the same amounts that a trans-oceanic route like China to the Americas could handle (or even China to St. Petersburg if that were needed)
- bombcar 3y agoThe simple railroad idea is “big ship comes to west Panama, unloads onto trains, which load into big ship in east Panama” but that avoids the strength of railroads. You have to unload the ship eventually anyway, so you instead have it load into rail and disperse to final destination more directly. You’d need a heat map of where everything ends up that is going through Panama, but if you’re dumping to rail many of those ships would unload elsewhere. Or in other words, Europe will be hit much harder by this than the USA will.
- brianbreslin 3y agoPanama has a tiny railroad that follows the canal, if they thought this was a viable alternative they would expand it. I think they realize the labor cost on both ends would make this prohibitive + the time to unload and load up another ship would cause major bottlenecks.
- bombcar 3y agoThe problem for Panama is that the cost of rail transport is dominated by the time for loading and unloading; once you've gotten to the point that loading/unloading on trains makes sense, suddenly many more countries in that area are competitive; if I recall correctly Mexico is building a rail line across their narrowest part.
- helsinkiandrew 3y agoAn 'average' panamax container ship carries 4,200 lorries/train carriages of goods. The infrastructure to move 100K of those a day 1000s of miles on land would be enourmous and make global trade prohibitively expensive - far cheaper to sail for longer around the capes.
- oneshtein 3y agoYep, but those two routes around capes can be disrupted too, which may cause advantage for those, who are not using them. Then it will be easy to plant the message into brains of those 50% who have less than average IQ: "Blame your government for this sudden spike in prices! Vote for those, who want to protect us, not foreigners!"
- rtpg 3y agoaside because everyone who makes that comment seems to get it wrong: 50% of the population has less than the median IQ, not the average!
- oneshtein 3y agoWe cannot rank all the people and put their IQ into a sorted array to calculate median, so some of us accept loss of precision when we use average numbers.
- thaumasiotes 3y ago> because everyone who makes that comment seems to get it wrong: 50% of the population has less than the median IQ, not the average! What's the mistake? It's a normal distribution; the average is equal to the median.
- pi-e-sigma 3y agoThe median itself is a type of an average, too, regardless of the distribution. We have many averages to choose from
- raverbashing 3y agoAnd no port that is constantly free from ice
- bombcar 3y agoYet.
- avidphantasm 3y agoPanama Canal at reduced capacity. Suez Canal at reduced capacity (for very different reasons). Therefore shipping costs and delays are rising. Could this be a trigger for the recession everyone seems to be predicting?
- maroonblazer 3y agoIsn't it more likely to be a trigger for continued/increasing inflation? I.e., the goods still need to get where they're going, but it's going to cost more, either through longer routes or more expensive means (rail/truck).
- bombcar 3y agoTake all the goods at Walmart. Find the cheapest largest ones - eg, the ones that fill a container with the least dollar amount. You’ll find that many of those are already made in the USA, especially if they can be made by robots. Here’s one now! https://www.walmart.com/ip/Hyper-Tough-32-Gallon-Heavy-Duty-Plastic-Garbage-Can-Included-Lid-Indoor-Outdoor-Black/17203827 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Hyper-Tough-32-Gallon-Heavy-Duty-... China will end up making high value items where shipping is a small fraction of the cost (Apple already flies most of their products via jet) whereas cheap items that are not labor intensive will move back to near their destination. Other things will move to Mexico and further south.
- alephnerd 3y ago> high value items Medium value parts actually (eg. OEM). And it's the same specialization that Mexico has had since the late 1990s and early 2000s when their factories left for China [0][1][2]. That's why Mexican manufacturing has started growing again - costs have equalized between CN and MX manufacturing for intermediate parts. For example, take apart a Sony PS2, Compaq workstation, or a Toshiba DVD Player from the early 2000s - all the electronics parts in it will say Made in "Mexico/Malaysia/Thailand", and the plastic molding was 50% Mexico and China. China didn't enter the fray until after 2008 when Steve Jobs tasked Tim Cook with exploring manufacturing in China, and Samsung began opening OLED factories there as well. Low cost gizmos and gadgets have been manufactured in Vietnam and India for a decade now, and within 10 years they'll both also climb up the value chain manufacturing wise. Nhat Tao in Saigon and Sector 63 in Noida have a similar feel as Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen 10-15 years ago. History doesn't repeat, but it sure as hell rhymes. Mexico also saw economic and political instability 20-30 years ago when its factories began leaving for China. Same thing happened to Thailand in the 1990s, Malaysia in the 2000s, Turkiye in the 2010s, and Phillipines in the 1990s-2000s. [0] - http://international-economy.com/TIE_Sp03_Rosen.pdf http://international-economy.com/TIE_Sp03_Rosen.pdf [1] - https://www.cnn.com/2003/BUSINESS/12/13/china.mexico.reut/ https://www.cnn.com/2003/BUSINESS/12/13/china.mexico.reut/ [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/03/world/as-china-gallops-mexico-sees-factory-jobs-slip-away.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/03/world/as-china-gallops-me...
- lgleason 3y agoNormally this area gets a lot of rain and there is not an issue which is how they planned for it. We are in a drought cycle which happens from time to time, but this is obviously a rare set of two events happening at the same time. With Nicaragua, beyond the corruption and the instability of the government there, many had concerns about the ecological impact of it.
- loceng 3y agoAnd how is the seed clouding that's occurring globally impacting this [it's very obvious now, for those unaware, there is GeoengineeringWatch.org and their documentary free on YouTube called "The Dimming"], as well as perhaps hurting crops and those local economies enough to shift power-buying power away from those food producers?
- losteric 3y agoThere are no "global cloud seeding" projects. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/02/28/fact-check-false-claim-geoengineering-behind-climate-change-chemtrails/11360545002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/02/28/fac... anything like that would be trivially observed by layperson scientists. (Also cloud seeding = more rain, drought = less rain)
- loceng 3y agoThat's a very shallow view and understanding, no? You don't think weather patterns could shift? It's not black-and-white as "clouds = more rain" - as there's obviously the question of distribution. Likewise, water vapour in the atmosphere traps more heat - warming the planet; locally of course where there's cloud cover, at least initially, it will be cooler.
- mjevans 3y agoWater is, mostly, only added to the atmosphere by evaporation. This is mostly solar, but can include indirect solar (wind) and industrial processes. Rain 'seeding' can be thought of as offering water already in the atmosphere an excuse to form rain and drop out of the atmosphere. It's about controlling where it rains rather than if it rains.
- panamatt88 3y agoThe illegal mining operation in Donoso also had an impact on water sources that were supposed to be replenishing the canal in case of a drought like this. See: https://www.tvn-2.com/de-frente/canal-panama-administrador-agua-de-frente-minera_1_2073153.html https://www.tvn-2.com/de-frente/canal-panama-administrador-a...
- shepardc737 3y ago[dead]
- jgord 3y agoI was amazed to hear they relied on large amount of fresh water supply to refill the lochs for each ships passage.
- throwaway5752 3y agoGatun Lake
- scythe 3y agoPanama is very rainy on average. The average rainfall in Colón is 3.4 meters (136 inches) per year. Ciudad de Panamá is a little drier with 1.9 meters (75 inches). For comparison, New Orleans, the continental US's wettest city, gets 1.6 meters (64 inches). But it can vary, and unfortunately, January is the beginning of the dry season, which ends in May.
- jacquesm 3y agoNot only is it rainy, when it rains it rains. I've been soaked through on 5 meters of exposure between a building and a cab.
- thehappypm 3y agoWow! That is a truly insane amount of rain. Perfect place for this canal which essentially runs on hydropower!
- p1mrx 3y agohttps://www.dw.com/en/will-climate-change-cut-off-the-panama-canal-and-global-supply-chains/a-65761965 https://www.dw.com/en/will-climate-change-cut-off-the-panama... discusses some possible solutions: > solutions [...] include water-saving sluices that would collect freshwater in basins so it can be reused. To this end, possibilities are being examined to develop and exploit other water sources near the canal. The construction of reservoirs and saltwater desalination plants are also being considered. There's also: > The transport route from Asia through the Panama Canal to the US' east coast can be partially rerouted through the Suez Canal whoops.
- cma256 3y ago"A canal on one side of the planet is broken? Just use the canal on the other side of the planet." I'm enjoying that sentiment very much. I wonder if there's a mileage breakdown of China -> US (around South America) versus China -> US (through the Suez Canal).
- djbusby 3y agoToday it might be China -> USA via Cape - which is a long way.
- biotopia 3y agoThis is going to speed up the export decline from China to US. In 2023, among key trading partners, exports to the U.S. led the decline, down 13% from the previous year. https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports-drop-for-first-time-in-seven-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports...
- Fatnino 3y agoVery roughly, it's the same distance from Hong Kong to New York through either Panama or Suez. Like if one raises transit tolls the ships can immediately chose to go through the other. But to directly answer your wish, this site does exactly what you want https://sea-distances.org/ https://sea-distances.org/
- donor20 3y agoOne note - they don’t pump water out and back into the locks from a neighboring storage. They flush the water. Each ship needs like 40 million gallons? Maybe title should be insane wastes of water forces authorities…. :)
- huytersd 3y agoThey really should use solar arrays to pump the water back. If there’s no sun, you can always just flush it like they’re doing now.
- dralley 3y agoThat would risk introducing salt into the resovoir and water table.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- nostrademons 3y agoThey do pump water out and back into the locks from neighboring storage. There is a limit to the minimum amount of water that you can use, though, since the potential energy to raise the ship comes from the loss of water. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBvclVcesEE&t=338s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBvclVcesEE&t=338s
- pacificmint 3y agoIsn’t that how all locks work? Or at least most? I’ve always assumed the energy cost to pump the water would make it cost prohibitive, but I wonder how it compares to rerouting ships or moving containers over land.
- perihelions 3y agoSome canal locks pump water back, - "The hydraulic cylinders enable the water used by the locks to be pumped back. Up to 48,000 cubic metres of water are displaced in a single lockage operation. In periods of low discharge on the Meuse, the screws can pump back the water lost due to the passage of a ship through the lock to the upper canal reach." https://www.inlandnavigation.eu/power-of-water-and-wind/ https://www.inlandnavigation.eu/power-of-water-and-wind/
- myself248 3y agoDone to death in this other thread 3 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38991317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38991317
- brianbreslin 3y agoThere was another nicaraguan canal project that was floated maybe 10 years ago and supposedly financed by the Chinese government. The government officials involved all ended up charged with an assortment of graft surrounding the project.
- pchristensen 3y agoThe idea for a canal through Nicaragua goes back to at least the 1880s, when agents for the bankrupt French canal company tried to lobby for the US Government to buy the remaining assets. Source: https://www.amazon.com/Path-Between-Seas-Creation-1870-1914/dp/0671244094 https://www.amazon.com/Path-Between-Seas-Creation-1870-1914/... - it's one of the most fascinating books I've ever read. It covers engineering, geography, 19th century stock market investing, medical advances, and the birth of US state capacity to run projects. Highly recommended!
- sethrin 3y agoAt the time it was seen as extremely dubious; the criminal charges are the least surprising outcome.
- nuc1e0n 3y agoCan't the canal authorities reduce the water used somehow? If you paired up ships so that one going up the lock system is matched with one going down you could just pump the water back and forth from one lock to the other and back. Then way less water would be lost from the system. The Falkirk wheel in Scotland can move boats with minimal electricity usage. Could a bigger one be built?
- lstodd 3y agoThe pump is the rain. The water flows down into both oceans, evaporates there and falls down on the lake's tributary areas, then flows down into it. That's the beauty of the whole design.
- BuildTheRobots 3y agoThe Falkirk wheel is quite an immense structure, but each one of it's basins is only 80m long and 6.5m wide. It's moving 500 tonnes of weight each rotation (split between the two basins to keep it balanced). To service the Panama Canal, you'd need basins 370m long and 50m wide. The new Panamax ships are apparently capable of carrying 120,000 tonnes of weight (no idea what they weigh themselves), but we're talking about swinging around half a millions tonnes of weight. My brain can't comprehend that... are there _any_ moving structures of that size in the world?
- nuc1e0n 3y agoIs getting the ship across the canal even necessary when we're talking about shipping containers? a Flotilla of smaller ships for just a few containers could be used in a continuous convoy.
- mattmaroon 3y agoI guess it never occurred to me it was fresh water. Can they not just use salt water?
- jillesvangurp 3y agoNo, because the salt water is at sea level and the drinking water is at the level the ships need to rise to via the locks. Water flows out from a lake at 26 meters above sea level that is fed by a river that comes from the mountains by gravity. Making the amounts of water that drains out from there move up requires massive amounts of energy. We're not talking a few little pipes here and there. The pumps and energy generation infrastructure project needed to get that done would probably rival or surpass the Panama canal in complexity, scale, and scope. It would be expensive and take a long time to build. Add to that the complexity of doing that while not shutting down the canal for a few years. Basically the amount of water needed for the locks is a function of the amount of tonnage that ships through the canal and the altitude that ships needs to rise to. We're talking about pumping millions of tonnes of water up by 26 meters. Think something in the order of hundreds of gwh per day at least. Of course you could continue to rely on rivers for part of that. But still, it might be doable but it wouldn't be cheap. That and the fact that pumping a lot of salt water would destroy large parts of the ecosystem in Panama is a reason that will likely never happen. The locals might object a bit to that. And they probably also rely on that water for drinking and agriculture.
- mattmaroon 3y agoI'd think you could recapture a lot of the energy as it drained right? Proposed solutions involve a lot of pumping and seem to rely on it. Hydroelectric efficiency is over 90%. The salt water would be largely contained so I'm not sure why it would be so bad for the ecosystem. I don't doubt it would be very expensive, everything about that canal has been. But if this turns out to be the new normal, rather than just a weather abberation, it will be cheaper than re-reouting all of those ships, whether the pumping is done with fresh or salt water.
- jacquesm 3y agoIf you want to destroy Panama that would be an excellent way to accomplish it.