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No one really knows how AI will develop and what sort of capabilities the next iterations will have. These kind of predictions are pointless. 1 year ago if you

by spaceman_2020 3y ago

No one really knows how AI will develop and what sort of capabilities the next iterations will have. These kind of predictions are pointless. 1 year ago if you’d told me that commercial photographers would be toast, I wouldn’t have believed you. But after Midjourney V6, I have zero doubts that commercial photography is absolutely doomed.

omeid2 3y ago
We don't need to predict what the next iteration will have to calculate the damage, just understanding what "this iteration can do" is almost enough to cover that 40% job losses due to increased productivity.
Retric 3y ago
It’s really hard to say how many unsolved issues with AI are going to be fixed tomorrow vs 20+ years from now. Midjourney v6 still has massive issues with lining up stuff that goes behind something else and I have no idea if that’s fixable or an inherent limitation to their approach. Hands have noticeably improved, but are still very hit and miss etc. What’s really frustrating is I often can’t tell if I’m bad at prompts or the underlying system is has issues.
huytersd 3y ago
If we get to a point where AI can generate realistic 3D models it’s game over for a lot of things. If you have a 3D model of a character it completely eliminates continuity issues. At that point entire games and movies should be possible without a single actor/actress or any support crew.
- guappa 3y ago
  It's not like animating a 3d model is easy…
  - huytersd 3y ago
    If it’s rigged, it’s extremely easy. Rigging is already automated for most humanoid characters…
    - coffeebeqn 3y ago
      If anything it’s easier. It gives a nice abstraction to capture and transform movement rather than figuring out each frame how to draw everything from scratch
  - lucubratory 3y ago
    Animating 3D models isn't safe from AI either: https://youtu.be/8oIQy6fxfCA?si=8Vy0p4LNAm6r547D https://youtu.be/8oIQy6fxfCA?si=8Vy0p4LNAm6r547D It's not just NVIDIA, Ubisoft also has some very impressive research in this area. I believe Ubisoft has already implemented some of the new tech in their recent games - it makes sense, they have hundreds and hundreds of people work on their games and they require huge amounts of animation, any savings there are going to be huge for them.
- smt88 3y ago
  There are some companies working on using AI for animating the movements, although I'm sure full models aren't far off.
AzuraIsCool 3y ago
Why do you think commercial photography is toast? (asking as someone who paid obscene amount to few photographers last year ((wedding, budoir, maternity photos hoot))
- guappa 3y ago
  You can just ask "make photo of a baby" to a computer. Why do you need the actual baby when you can have a fake baby with mangled hears and 7 fingers per hand?
  - aquafox 3y ago
    Becaus you can't do that if you want a professional photo of your baby.
    - b112 3y ago
      This isn't about this moment. You think "now" is "always like this"??? Future images will make real babies look ugly in comparison.
    - foota 3y ago
      You can with finetuning, but I think parent is being sarcastic :-) I think the point is that no one (ok, not no one, but few people) will view fake photos in the same way as real ones when it comes to sentimentality.
      - Gigachad 3y ago
        It’s probably good enough to replace blog post header images that served close to no value to begin with. Everything else is still to be seen.
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    > Why do you need the actual baby when you can have a fake baby with mangled hears and 7 fingers per hand? Comments like these are fine on Twitter and Facebook, but if you're on HackerNews, commenting on an article about AI, it makes you look completely out of touch. You've clearly not kept pace with the technology and are just repeating verbatim what you saw 6 months ago. HN, as a whole, has been so behind the curve that it's not even funny.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
I'm not so sure, at all. I think folks are woefully underestimating most people's desires for at least some level of "authenticity". For example, in the past 6-9 months or so, it feels like nearly every random blog post or corporate announcement I read feels the need to use an AI-generated header image. I understand why - "stock imagery" has always been used to paint a scene for an article. The thing is, though, is that, at least for me, it just cheapens the use of imagery in the first place. Every time I see one of these now I roll my eyes, I think they look cheesy and stupid. Even ones that are photo-realistic quality, you can tell by the composition that it's just generic AI. If you make something ridiculously cheap to produce, it also has the effect of discounting the value people take from it.
- cryptoz 3y ago
  MJ 6 is only a few weeks old or so though (I think…internet time is weird, but not 6 months for sure!) and is quickly becoming nearly indistinguishable from real photos. And that’s not even mentioning the obvious future v7. We’re crossing the uncanny valley and soon enough you won’t know if an image is real or AI. The tell-tale signs will fade (already are) and the “authenticity” you speak of will actually be there. So to speak.
  - master234 3y ago
    [dead]
  - bawolff 3y ago
    I don't think it really matters though. I can already take a photorealistic photo with my camera, no AI needed. We don't hire photographers just because they can create photorealistic images, we hire them because they can take the right photorealistic images.
    - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
      Thanks very much for putting the point I was trying to make so well and succinctly. It's similar to how people are worried about AI killing all programming jobs. Yes, I've also been blown away by the ability of LLMs to write some code, but my value as a developer comes more from being detail oriented, understanding when requirements are underspecified, thinking through edge-cases, and then finally being able to turn this into something a machine can execute. Compilers didn't put earlier assembly language programmers out of business, it just required most programmers to program differently. While I do worry about the sheer number of jobs (because I think more junior, entry-level jobs will get supplanted, which makes it harder to move up the career ladder in the first place), I think people will still want the expertise of good photographers.
adra 3y ago
I have no idea what you're getting a commercial photography has been on the edge of obscurity for a long time, and there's little new here. Of the several photographers I've known in my years, there's only maybe a couple that managed to make an actual career out of it. I'm not entirely sure a final nail will be from AI, but there are def. too many people chasing too few jobs in that industry.
dtf 3y ago
Why do people pay premium for "hand made", "artisanal" etc? If AI is cheap, then by using AI generated content to cut costs, you will cheapen your brand by association. There are examples of brands doing this to themselves already.
- janalsncm 3y ago
  Some people pay a premium for handmade, artisanal stuff. In the past, that was the only option. Today, most people buy mass produced goods. You can still buy handmade furniture, but most don’t. You can still ride a horse-drawn carriage, most don’t.
  - omeid2 3y ago
    And who says you can't use AI to produce cheaper "handmade" and "artisanal" stuff? I am not saying this in gist or to as a gotcha, the reality is that many --I dare say majority of-- "handmade" and "artisanal" brands are just that "brands" and are often only slightly --if that-- different from their mass produced "counter-parts". And yes, I hate how much quote I had to use too, you can blame the marketing people for that.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  I literally used Midjourney to create luxury brand quality images for one of my d2c product. The images are at par with print ads for top tier luxury brands. My friends who work in creative industries had to zoom in 300% to spot that its AI generated. Average consumers won’t be able to tell at all Do yourself a favor and head over to Midjourney’s explore tab after signing up for an account.

omeid2 3y ago

We don't need to predict what the next iteration will have to calculate the damage, just understanding what "this iteration can do" is almost enough to cover that 40% job losses due to increased productivity.

Retric 3y ago

It’s really hard to say how many unsolved issues with AI are going to be fixed tomorrow vs 20+ years from now. Midjourney v6 still has massive issues with lining up stuff that goes behind something else and I have no idea if that’s fixable or an inherent limitation to their approach. Hands have noticeably improved, but are still very hit and miss etc. What’s really frustrating is I often can’t tell if I’m bad at prompts or the underlying system is has issues.

huytersd 3y ago

If we get to a point where AI can generate realistic 3D models it’s game over for a lot of things. If you have a 3D model of a character it completely eliminates continuity issues. At that point entire games and movies should be possible without a single actor/actress or any support crew.

guappa 3y ago
It's not like animating a 3d model is easy…
- huytersd 3y ago
  If it’s rigged, it’s extremely easy. Rigging is already automated for most humanoid characters…
  - coffeebeqn 3y ago
    If anything it’s easier. It gives a nice abstraction to capture and transform movement rather than figuring out each frame how to draw everything from scratch
- lucubratory 3y ago
  Animating 3D models isn't safe from AI either: https://youtu.be/8oIQy6fxfCA?si=8Vy0p4LNAm6r547D https://youtu.be/8oIQy6fxfCA?si=8Vy0p4LNAm6r547D It's not just NVIDIA, Ubisoft also has some very impressive research in this area. I believe Ubisoft has already implemented some of the new tech in their recent games - it makes sense, they have hundreds and hundreds of people work on their games and they require huge amounts of animation, any savings there are going to be huge for them.
smt88 3y ago
There are some companies working on using AI for animating the movements, although I'm sure full models aren't far off.

AzuraIsCool 3y ago

Why do you think commercial photography is toast? (asking as someone who paid obscene amount to few photographers last year ((wedding, budoir, maternity photos hoot))

guappa 3y ago
You can just ask "make photo of a baby" to a computer. Why do you need the actual baby when you can have a fake baby with mangled hears and 7 fingers per hand?
- aquafox 3y ago
  Becaus you can't do that if you want a professional photo of your baby.
  - b112 3y ago
    This isn't about this moment. You think "now" is "always like this"??? Future images will make real babies look ugly in comparison.
  - foota 3y ago
    You can with finetuning, but I think parent is being sarcastic :-) I think the point is that no one (ok, not no one, but few people) will view fake photos in the same way as real ones when it comes to sentimentality.
    - Gigachad 3y ago
      It’s probably good enough to replace blog post header images that served close to no value to begin with. Everything else is still to be seen.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  > Why do you need the actual baby when you can have a fake baby with mangled hears and 7 fingers per hand? Comments like these are fine on Twitter and Facebook, but if you're on HackerNews, commenting on an article about AI, it makes you look completely out of touch. You've clearly not kept pace with the technology and are just repeating verbatim what you saw 6 months ago. HN, as a whole, has been so behind the curve that it's not even funny.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

I'm not so sure, at all. I think folks are woefully underestimating most people's desires for at least some level of "authenticity". For example, in the past 6-9 months or so, it feels like nearly every random blog post or corporate announcement I read feels the need to use an AI-generated header image. I understand why - "stock imagery" has always been used to paint a scene for an article. The thing is, though, is that, at least for me, it just cheapens the use of imagery in the first place. Every time I see one of these now I roll my eyes, I think they look cheesy and stupid. Even ones that are photo-realistic quality, you can tell by the composition that it's just generic AI. If you make something ridiculously cheap to produce, it also has the effect of discounting the value people take from it.

cryptoz 3y ago
MJ 6 is only a few weeks old or so though (I think…internet time is weird, but not 6 months for sure!) and is quickly becoming nearly indistinguishable from real photos. And that’s not even mentioning the obvious future v7. We’re crossing the uncanny valley and soon enough you won’t know if an image is real or AI. The tell-tale signs will fade (already are) and the “authenticity” you speak of will actually be there. So to speak.
- master234 3y ago
  [dead]
- bawolff 3y ago
  I don't think it really matters though. I can already take a photorealistic photo with my camera, no AI needed. We don't hire photographers just because they can create photorealistic images, we hire them because they can take the right photorealistic images.
  - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
    Thanks very much for putting the point I was trying to make so well and succinctly. It's similar to how people are worried about AI killing all programming jobs. Yes, I've also been blown away by the ability of LLMs to write some code, but my value as a developer comes more from being detail oriented, understanding when requirements are underspecified, thinking through edge-cases, and then finally being able to turn this into something a machine can execute. Compilers didn't put earlier assembly language programmers out of business, it just required most programmers to program differently. While I do worry about the sheer number of jobs (because I think more junior, entry-level jobs will get supplanted, which makes it harder to move up the career ladder in the first place), I think people will still want the expertise of good photographers.

adra 3y ago

I have no idea what you're getting a commercial photography has been on the edge of obscurity for a long time, and there's little new here. Of the several photographers I've known in my years, there's only maybe a couple that managed to make an actual career out of it. I'm not entirely sure a final nail will be from AI, but there are def. too many people chasing too few jobs in that industry.

dtf 3y ago

Why do people pay premium for "hand made", "artisanal" etc? If AI is cheap, then by using AI generated content to cut costs, you will cheapen your brand by association. There are examples of brands doing this to themselves already.

janalsncm 3y ago
Some people pay a premium for handmade, artisanal stuff. In the past, that was the only option. Today, most people buy mass produced goods. You can still buy handmade furniture, but most don’t. You can still ride a horse-drawn carriage, most don’t.
- omeid2 3y ago
  And who says you can't use AI to produce cheaper "handmade" and "artisanal" stuff? I am not saying this in gist or to as a gotcha, the reality is that many --I dare say majority of-- "handmade" and "artisanal" brands are just that "brands" and are often only slightly --if that-- different from their mass produced "counter-parts". And yes, I hate how much quote I had to use too, you can blame the marketing people for that.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
I literally used Midjourney to create luxury brand quality images for one of my d2c product. The images are at par with print ads for top tier luxury brands. My friends who work in creative industries had to zoom in 300% to spot that its AI generated. Average consumers won’t be able to tell at all Do yourself a favor and head over to Midjourney’s explore tab after signing up for an account.