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I'm particularly interested in how Egypt responds to this. They lose about $300,000 per vessel that diverts around the cape. In fiscal 2023, about 25,000 vessel

by mattas 3y ago

I'm particularly interested in how Egypt responds to this. They lose about $300,000 per vessel that diverts around the cape. In fiscal 2023, about 25,000 vessels went through the canal.

LargeTomato 3y ago
What can they do? They are the longest standing Arab security partner to the West and Israel. They gave Israel early warning about the attacks. They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel and are cooperating with the US and Israel on aid flowing into Palestine. They only control the Suez (north Red Sea) and the Houthis are across-the-sea from Somalia. Egypt couldn't defend against Houthi rockets if they wanted to. Egypt has a vested interest in stabilizing the region and returning to the status quo. They are politically and economically aligned with the West and Israel and their best, and only, option is to remain a stable partner.
- sparrc 3y ago
  They're free to patrol the waters in the South Red Sea though. Doesn't Egypt have a navy? To me this situation seems like it would warrant sending nearly their entire fleet to the South Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
  - LargeTomato 3y ago
    Good questions! Egypt doesn't have the advanced anti missile cruisers. Egypt has a massive tank force. There is already a multi national naval fleet in the Red Sea patrolling the waters. Mostly US but also UK and some others. Edit There's more :) Egypt can't counter the missiles better than the US can, but it could certainly get pulled into a larger conflict if it started deploying military assets outside it's borders. They can't really make their situation better but they can definitely make it worse.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    The danger isn't primarily from other ships that the Egyptian Navy could chase off but from land-based cruise missiles launched by the Houthis. The US Navy's most advanced weapons systems can intercept most of the missiles but not all of them, and at some considerable degree of risk to the US vessels. The only military option to stop the attacks are drone / bomber incursions into Yemen which of course Egypt has no interest in doing since it could turn into a full hot war pretty easily.
    - f6v 3y ago
      > The only military option to stop the attacks are drone / bomber incursions into Yemen After they withstood years of war with Saudis? Those sandal-and-skirt guys are much tougher than people think.
      - logicchains 3y ago
        [flagged]
        miguelazo 3y ago
        [flagged]
        logicchains 3y ago
        It's not racist; the Taliban and the Houthis are Muslims, and most Muslims believe that martyrdom leads directly to heaven, since the Qur'an explicitly states so. "Those who leave their homes in the cause of Allah, and are then slain or die,- On them will Allah bestow verily a goodly Provision: Truly Allah is He Who bestows the best provision. Verily He will admit them to a place with which they shall be well pleased: for Allah is All-Knowing, Most Forbearing." - Quran 22:58–59 Many Muslims take pride in the fact, hence the popularity of the "I have bought you men who love death as much as you love life" quote from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalid_ibn_al-Walid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalid_ibn_al-Walid to the Persian governor. Plus the Houthis and the Afghanistanis aren't even the same race, since the Houthis are Arabs and the majority of Afghanistanis are not.
  - Terr_ 3y ago
    > [Egypt is] free to patrol the waters Putting patrol-boats out there may deter boarding by Somalia-style pirates, but in this case the risk comes from various missiles and bomb-drones launched from the shore [0]. Even if the the defender has a few fancy anti-missile warships, the attacker could choose the least-covered target from a constant stream of (big, slow) cargo-ships through a ~300km route. [1] [0] https://www.mei.edu/publications/houthis-red-sea-missile-and-drone-attack-drivers-and-implications https://www.mei.edu/publications/houthis-red-sea-missile-and... [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/12/20/map-houthi-shipping-vessel-attacks-red-sea https://www.axios.com/2023/12/20/map-houthi-shipping-vessel-...
  - Axsuul 3y ago
    Not many navys can project force that far due to logistics.
  - jessepasley 3y ago
    Israel has a navy, and is curiously missing from 'Operation Prosperity Guardian'
    - zilti 3y ago
      I suspect after the ground invasion in Gaza and the attacks at Lebanon, the Israeli public would be even less pleased at a "third front"
      - jessepasley 3y ago
        Good thing there a lot of other countries willing to foot that bill.
        WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
        It puzzles me that how little mention Saudi Arabia is getting here - given that they've been Yemen's war-partner against the Houthis for a while (w/ US, UK, French, etc help).
        greedo 3y ago
        Saudi Arabia's military is staffed largely by dilettantes. The only reason they ever fought against the Houthi's was because they're Sunni and the Houthi's are Shia. And the Houthis are really in control of all most all of Yemen, so calling them insurgents etc is misplaced. They dissolved the government and replaced it with revolutionary councils.
      - r00fus 3y ago
        I love how Israel expects the US and other countries to do all the heavy lifting on a front that is actually vital for their economic needs while they're on a mission dropping a Hiroshima of bombs on their own territory.
        pi-e-sigma 3y ago
  - maxglute 3y ago
    They also can't afford to potentially embarrass themselves militarily with much more existential grand renaissance dam drama unfolding in the background.
  - namaria 3y ago
    It's quite painless to allocate the limited resources of others isn't it?
  - scythe 3y ago
    The Egyptian government is a dictatorship holding together a powder keg. The military coup of 2013 overthrew a Muslim Brotherhood government and was followed by the election of 2014 which produced the very believable and realistic result of 96% of the vote for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (he was reëlected with 97% in 2018 and 90% in 2023). A military mobilization of Egypt would jeopardize the minimal existing political infrastructure in the country and, arguably, play into the hands of the Houthis themselves, who are no friends of regional stability.
  - partiallypro 3y ago
    It's fairly obvious at this point that the only way to stop it is to bomb targets in Yemen...which isn't going to be politically popular. The US is even struggling to put together a coalition to secure the water ways.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > What can they do? Hypothetically, Egypt can do the same thing they did the last time Yemen fell into civil war - support the PLC. The issue is Saudi and UAE - Egypt's primary backers - are supporting conflicting factions in the Yemeni Civil War. The Saudis are supporting the Yemeni Republican Guard (the old leadership of the Republic of Yemen) while the UAE is supporting the secessionist Southern Transitional Council which is fighting to reconstitute South Yemen. If Egypt choses one side over they other, they are in big trouble, as the other side will start meddling in Egypt in retaliation. Egypt is already in a de facto Cold War with Turkiye and Qatar because they supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, and Sisi needs as much support as possible to retain power in Egypt.
- justrealist 3y ago
  > They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel I'm not arguing they should do this, but what Israel actually wants right now is to allow Gaza residents to exit into the Sinai, not a blockade.
- zardo 3y ago
  While a large portion of the Egyptian population likely agree with the Houthi stance, the political actors they would support are in prison.
- ars 3y ago
  > They gave Israel early warning about the attacks. Both Israel and Egypt denied that this was true. They both said the warnings were of a general natural "Hamas wants to attack", nothing specific.
- autoexecbat 3y ago
  Their navy can defend the shipping routes rather than waiting for someone else to step up
- splittingTimes 3y ago
  > They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel Where did you get the info from that it was on Israel's request and not of their own accord?
  - greedo 3y ago
    Like all the neighbors of Israel, the last thing they want is the refugees on their land...
- golemiprague 3y ago
  [dead]
- panick21_ 3y ago
  They have invaded Yemen before ...
  - testrun 3y ago
    And that did not go well.
theonlybutlet 3y ago
It's a big area, I believe there's US Navy and UK Navy ships there right now.
mk89 3y ago
I didn't believe this comment until i found that they hit $7B record in 2022, which matches the numbers. Crazy, thanks for sharing this.
justinzollars 3y ago
Conspiracy corner: Egypt is joining BRICS. Maybe this is deliberate pressure and this is a convenient excuse?
- alephnerd 3y ago
  BRICS is not some omnipresent challenge to NATO or the WB. China and India hate each other and were literally a trigger away from war 3 years ago. "[the] two countries almost at the brink of war with artillery guns ready to fire at Chinese tanks which were trying to storm Indian positions, a fate averted by a hotline between the two sides, reveals former Army chief Gen M.M. Naravane (Retd)" [0] [0] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-naravane-recalls-how-india-china-were-at-brink-of-war-in-aug-2020/1892648/ https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...
  - pi-e-sigma 3y ago
    Turkey and Greece hate each other but it doesn't prevent them both being in NATO. It's hard to tell what BRICS really is but it's not a military organization so no point comparing them to NATO anyway
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > Turkey and Greece hate each other but it doesn't prevent them both being in NATO No, but their mutual dependence on the US for military procurement and defense keeps them within NATO. China and India on the other hand began the process of a hard decoupling in 2020. Major Chinese tech companies were frozen out of the Indian market, and others were "encouraged" to sell off their operations to Indian, American, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies. For example, the Foxconn factory manufacturing iPhones in India was originally built for Xiaomi before they were pushed out. So was Huawei India's assets to Cisco and Vivo India's factory to Samsung. Indian tax authorities raid Chinese run companies at such a high frequency that even China has publicly complained about this [0]. This is a stunning change for a country that 4 years before was the 2nd largest FDI investor in India after the US. > It's hard to tell what BRICS really It's a half assed attempt at becoming a WB, ADB, or IMF competitor, but is hemmed by mutual competition between China and India. This is why the only 4 countries added in the expansion were those that had a roughly equal dependency on China and India. > it's not a military organization so no point comparing them to NATO anyway Agreed! I'm just dismissing a common pop fact I've noticed regurgitated on HN and Reddit. I have a hunch that the overlap between some of the more braindead subreddits and HN is quite high. [0] - https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/enforcement-directorate-china-vivo-india/ https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/enforcement-directora...
janmo 3y ago
Egypt will feel some pain, but most of it will be felt by Israel and Europe. Egypt has closed the canal many times itself as a form of protest, the longest closure was from 1967 to 1975 after the 6 day war with Israel. So I do not expect them to do anything.
SergeAx 3y ago
GDP of Egypt in 2023 was $1.4T. $7.5B of the Canal revenue is 0.5% of total GDP.

by mattas 3y ago

I'm particularly interested in how Egypt responds to this. They lose about $300,000 per vessel that diverts around the cape. In fiscal 2023, about 25,000 vessels went through the canal.

LargeTomato 3y ago

What can they do? They are the longest standing Arab security partner to the West and Israel. They gave Israel early warning about the attacks. They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel and are cooperating with the US and Israel on aid flowing into Palestine. They only control the Suez (north Red Sea) and the Houthis are across-the-sea from Somalia. Egypt couldn't defend against Houthi rockets if they wanted to. Egypt has a vested interest in stabilizing the region and returning to the status quo. They are politically and economically aligned with the West and Israel and their best, and only, option is to remain a stable partner.

sparrc 3y ago
They're free to patrol the waters in the South Red Sea though. Doesn't Egypt have a navy? To me this situation seems like it would warrant sending nearly their entire fleet to the South Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- LargeTomato 3y ago
  Good questions! Egypt doesn't have the advanced anti missile cruisers. Egypt has a massive tank force. There is already a multi national naval fleet in the Red Sea patrolling the waters. Mostly US but also UK and some others. Edit There's more :) Egypt can't counter the missiles better than the US can, but it could certainly get pulled into a larger conflict if it started deploying military assets outside it's borders. They can't really make their situation better but they can definitely make it worse.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  The danger isn't primarily from other ships that the Egyptian Navy could chase off but from land-based cruise missiles launched by the Houthis. The US Navy's most advanced weapons systems can intercept most of the missiles but not all of them, and at some considerable degree of risk to the US vessels. The only military option to stop the attacks are drone / bomber incursions into Yemen which of course Egypt has no interest in doing since it could turn into a full hot war pretty easily.
  - f6v 3y ago
    > The only military option to stop the attacks are drone / bomber incursions into Yemen After they withstood years of war with Saudis? Those sandal-and-skirt guys are much tougher than people think.
    - logicchains 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - miguelazo 3y ago
        [flagged]
        logicchains 3y ago
        It's not racist; the Taliban and the Houthis are Muslims, and most Muslims believe that martyrdom leads directly to heaven, since the Qur'an explicitly states so. "Those who leave their homes in the cause of Allah, and are then slain or die,- On them will Allah bestow verily a goodly Provision: Truly Allah is He Who bestows the best provision. Verily He will admit them to a place with which they shall be well pleased: for Allah is All-Knowing, Most Forbearing." - Quran 22:58–59 Many Muslims take pride in the fact, hence the popularity of the "I have bought you men who love death as much as you love life" quote from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalid_ibn_al-Walid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalid_ibn_al-Walid to the Persian governor. Plus the Houthis and the Afghanistanis aren't even the same race, since the Houthis are Arabs and the majority of Afghanistanis are not.
- Terr_ 3y ago
  > [Egypt is] free to patrol the waters Putting patrol-boats out there may deter boarding by Somalia-style pirates, but in this case the risk comes from various missiles and bomb-drones launched from the shore [0]. Even if the the defender has a few fancy anti-missile warships, the attacker could choose the least-covered target from a constant stream of (big, slow) cargo-ships through a ~300km route. [1] [0] https://www.mei.edu/publications/houthis-red-sea-missile-and-drone-attack-drivers-and-implications https://www.mei.edu/publications/houthis-red-sea-missile-and... [1] https://www.axios.com/2023/12/20/map-houthi-shipping-vessel-attacks-red-sea https://www.axios.com/2023/12/20/map-houthi-shipping-vessel-...
- Axsuul 3y ago
  Not many navys can project force that far due to logistics.
- jessepasley 3y ago
  Israel has a navy, and is curiously missing from 'Operation Prosperity Guardian'
  - zilti 3y ago
    I suspect after the ground invasion in Gaza and the attacks at Lebanon, the Israeli public would be even less pleased at a "third front"
    - jessepasley 3y ago
      Good thing there a lot of other countries willing to foot that bill.
      - WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
        It puzzles me that how little mention Saudi Arabia is getting here - given that they've been Yemen's war-partner against the Houthis for a while (w/ US, UK, French, etc help).
        greedo 3y ago
        Saudi Arabia's military is staffed largely by dilettantes. The only reason they ever fought against the Houthi's was because they're Sunni and the Houthi's are Shia. And the Houthis are really in control of all most all of Yemen, so calling them insurgents etc is misplaced. They dissolved the government and replaced it with revolutionary councils.
    - r00fus 3y ago
      I love how Israel expects the US and other countries to do all the heavy lifting on a front that is actually vital for their economic needs while they're on a mission dropping a Hiroshima of bombs on their own territory.
      - pi-e-sigma 3y ago
- maxglute 3y ago
  They also can't afford to potentially embarrass themselves militarily with much more existential grand renaissance dam drama unfolding in the background.
- namaria 3y ago
  It's quite painless to allocate the limited resources of others isn't it?
- scythe 3y ago
  The Egyptian government is a dictatorship holding together a powder keg. The military coup of 2013 overthrew a Muslim Brotherhood government and was followed by the election of 2014 which produced the very believable and realistic result of 96% of the vote for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (he was reëlected with 97% in 2018 and 90% in 2023). A military mobilization of Egypt would jeopardize the minimal existing political infrastructure in the country and, arguably, play into the hands of the Houthis themselves, who are no friends of regional stability.
- partiallypro 3y ago
  It's fairly obvious at this point that the only way to stop it is to bomb targets in Yemen...which isn't going to be politically popular. The US is even struggling to put together a coalition to secure the water ways.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 3y ago
[dead]
alephnerd 3y ago
> What can they do? Hypothetically, Egypt can do the same thing they did the last time Yemen fell into civil war - support the PLC. The issue is Saudi and UAE - Egypt's primary backers - are supporting conflicting factions in the Yemeni Civil War. The Saudis are supporting the Yemeni Republican Guard (the old leadership of the Republic of Yemen) while the UAE is supporting the secessionist Southern Transitional Council which is fighting to reconstitute South Yemen. If Egypt choses one side over they other, they are in big trouble, as the other side will start meddling in Egypt in retaliation. Egypt is already in a de facto Cold War with Turkiye and Qatar because they supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, and Sisi needs as much support as possible to retain power in Egypt.
justrealist 3y ago
> They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel I'm not arguing they should do this, but what Israel actually wants right now is to allow Gaza residents to exit into the Sinai, not a blockade.
zardo 3y ago
While a large portion of the Egyptian population likely agree with the Houthi stance, the political actors they would support are in prison.
ars 3y ago
> They gave Israel early warning about the attacks. Both Israel and Egypt denied that this was true. They both said the warnings were of a general natural "Hamas wants to attack", nothing specific.
autoexecbat 3y ago
Their navy can defend the shipping routes rather than waiting for someone else to step up
splittingTimes 3y ago
> They locked down the Palestine border at the request of Israel Where did you get the info from that it was on Israel's request and not of their own accord?
- greedo 3y ago
  Like all the neighbors of Israel, the last thing they want is the refugees on their land...
golemiprague 3y ago
[dead]
panick21_ 3y ago
They have invaded Yemen before ...
- testrun 3y ago
  And that did not go well.

theonlybutlet 3y ago

It's a big area, I believe there's US Navy and UK Navy ships there right now.

mk89 3y ago

I didn't believe this comment until i found that they hit $7B record in 2022, which matches the numbers. Crazy, thanks for sharing this.

justinzollars 3y ago

Conspiracy corner: Egypt is joining BRICS. Maybe this is deliberate pressure and this is a convenient excuse?

alephnerd 3y ago
BRICS is not some omnipresent challenge to NATO or the WB. China and India hate each other and were literally a trigger away from war 3 years ago. "[the] two countries almost at the brink of war with artillery guns ready to fire at Chinese tanks which were trying to storm Indian positions, a fate averted by a hotline between the two sides, reveals former Army chief Gen M.M. Naravane (Retd)" [0] [0] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-naravane-recalls-how-india-china-were-at-brink-of-war-in-aug-2020/1892648/ https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...
- pi-e-sigma 3y ago
  Turkey and Greece hate each other but it doesn't prevent them both being in NATO. It's hard to tell what BRICS really is but it's not a military organization so no point comparing them to NATO anyway
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > Turkey and Greece hate each other but it doesn't prevent them both being in NATO No, but their mutual dependence on the US for military procurement and defense keeps them within NATO. China and India on the other hand began the process of a hard decoupling in 2020. Major Chinese tech companies were frozen out of the Indian market, and others were "encouraged" to sell off their operations to Indian, American, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies. For example, the Foxconn factory manufacturing iPhones in India was originally built for Xiaomi before they were pushed out. So was Huawei India's assets to Cisco and Vivo India's factory to Samsung. Indian tax authorities raid Chinese run companies at such a high frequency that even China has publicly complained about this [0]. This is a stunning change for a country that 4 years before was the 2nd largest FDI investor in India after the US. > It's hard to tell what BRICS really It's a half assed attempt at becoming a WB, ADB, or IMF competitor, but is hemmed by mutual competition between China and India. This is why the only 4 countries added in the expansion were those that had a roughly equal dependency on China and India. > it's not a military organization so no point comparing them to NATO anyway Agreed! I'm just dismissing a common pop fact I've noticed regurgitated on HN and Reddit. I have a hunch that the overlap between some of the more braindead subreddits and HN is quite high. [0] - https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/enforcement-directorate-china-vivo-india/ https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/enforcement-directora...

janmo 3y ago

Egypt will feel some pain, but most of it will be felt by Israel and Europe. Egypt has closed the canal many times itself as a form of protest, the longest closure was from 1967 to 1975 after the 6 day war with Israel. So I do not expect them to do anything.

SergeAx 3y ago

GDP of Egypt in 2023 was $1.4T. $7.5B of the Canal revenue is 0.5% of total GDP.