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Every retail/food service job is understaffed. You ask what people displaced by AI will do for a living? That. They'll do that. Because, actually, we do need pe
by yterdy 3y ago
Every retail/food service job is understaffed. You ask what people displaced by AI will do for a living? That. They'll do that. Because, actually, we do need people at PoS, if we're selling to other people. Hint hint as to why you should be supporting "unskilled" labor unions, high wages for those workers, and the destigmatizing of those types of jobs.
- bumby 3y agoDisplaced workers going into unskilled labor doesn't seem like an idealized "post-AI" situation. If anything, it might be something we should guard against. There's nothing wrong with honest work, but some would probably paint that scenario as dystopian, if you consider that many people think creative and autonomous work are important to human flourishing. If anything, I'd want AI to take over those rote jobs so people can focus on that type of creative work they tend to find more fulfilling.
- candiddevmike 3y agoAI will enter meat space long after it replaces knowledge workers
- chmod775 3y agoAutomation entered meat space centuries before it replaced knowledge work.
- bumby 3y agoI tend to agree, but there are various degrees of "meat space." Rote manual work has been getting automated away for decades. Now AI is taking away rote (or adjacent) knowledge work. The question is whether a reasonable solution for those displace by AI in the knowledge sector is to go work in the rote manual labor space. That presupposes their labor rate is suppressed below that of automation.
- thih9 3y agoI’m not sure if I’m capable of performing fulfilling work that would also have anything resembling of a demand. Take creative work. The pre-AI market was already extremely competitive. Few artists can chase autonomy, the rest needs to sell out to some level - usually significant; not the human flourishing we wanted. AI may disrupt this; still, my guess is that the pool of profitable creative workplaces remains unchanged, at best.
- bumby 3y agoI think that's largely true and most of us are trying to find a balance. Most modern jobs have some aspect of drudgery, or at least less palatable tasks, and we're trying to move the needle towards those tasks that we find fulfilling. But I'd argue some jobs are inherently less amenable to this, if you subscribe to the previously mentioned idea of fullment.
- WalterBright 3y agoIf an artist wants to make a living making art, the art has to be something people are willing to pay for. If that's "selling out", then so be it. Why should society support the artist if his art has no value to anyone?
- thih9 3y agoNote that our initial goal was different - not an artist who wants to make a living, but an artist who wants to perform fulfilling work.
- WalterBright 3y agoDraw two circles, 1. fulfilling art 2. art that pays the bills. Create the art that is in the intersection. Otherwise, you'll need another source of income in order to create fulfilling art. There's lots of software I'd like to write. I've spent my time writing code that lies in the intersection.
- thih9 3y ago
- opportune 3y agoIt's not unskilled labor which will preserve, so much as it is labor that is difficult to automate. Plenty of skilled jobs, like being a therapist or surgeon, would also be difficult to automate. McDonalds is also at the far end of the spectrum of "human service jobs that are less-skilled but difficult to automate". There is plenty of demand for higher quality versions - requiring a higher degree of skill and creativity - of the same general type, like fine-dining. Truly creative (in the sense of it having a high degree of novelty and quality) work is not at risk of being automated any time soon. What is at risk of being automated is the category of "creative" work that requires some skills but is mostly assembly line. Category-defining or truly novel art almost by definition can't be produced by existing AI in any form, because AI can only remix the content it's seen already. "Generic rock song" or "clip-art like picture of a guy yelling at a computer" are at risk of going away, but I hardly think that means humanity will no longer flourish - producing that kind of stuff is romanticized as a cool, highish status thing to do, but functionally I don't really see it as any different or more worth preserving than obsolete skilled labor of the past like carriage-makers or human-computers. I also think people tend to make the "Lump of Labor" fallacy when thinking about this stuff - economically speaking, if human workers are no longer needed to produce some high-value output, in the long run the excess labor/"talent" that gets freed from that task finds other value-producing tasks to do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy. Long-term unemployment and underemployment is completely a solvable economic problem; both can increase due to short term shocks like technological development and shifts in supply/demand, and in some cases underemployment is more a matter of "wrongly skilled", but long term they're both a matter of ensuring there is enough money, liquidity, and capital deployed to drive demand for marginal increases in both jobs and quality-of-jobs (without ruinous inflation).
- bumby 3y agoI agree with some of what you said, but some of this comment seems overly intellectualized to the point of being out-of-touch. Have you ever worked in fast food? What makes you think it can’t be automated? From my experience (admittedly decades ago), it’s ripe for automation. The work is largely rote and well controlled. The main edge cases (eg an order of salt free fries, or custom orders) are fairly easily managed without out-of-the-box thinking. The processes are well-defined and controlled. In fact, that’s a major contribution of franchise model: the entire process is already defined largely turn-key. IMO one of the reasons they aren’t automated already is because we essentially subsidize wages with social safety nets. This allows the human wage rate to stay below the cost of automation. We also may disagree on the idea of creative work. By my estimation, creative is defined as not being rote. Maybe the discrepancy is whether you believe combining preexisting ideas is creative; to a large extent most would agree, but that doesn’t, for example, pass the PTOs definition of “non-obvious” so I think there’s some debate as to if it’s truly creative work. I currently think the jobs that are least likely to be automated are non-rote manual labor, especially non-greenfield repair. Fixing a non-routine plumbing issue or installing a one-of-a-kind control system would just not be economical to automate.
- yterdy 3y agoWhatever you'd like, you have to look at reality. It's clear that AI is coming for jobs that are about manipulating information before jobs that are about switching between manipulating objects and serving people. Service jobs COULD be fulfilling. Spending a few hours a day helping your neighbors access the goods and services that they need is a part of community-building; people enjoy that kind of labor. The problem is the corporatization and "shareholder value"-centric bone-deep resource cuts that characterize most of these workplaces, where employees are forced to work under conditions that nominally prioritize profit over everything else (but are really also about, specifically: employee control, legal ass-covering, and union-busting). If people got paid well for working limited and predictable hours where they could rely on coworkers to keep the labor load reasonable, I think these jobs would be more desirable. What better way to spend the value unlocked by AI automation?
- bumby 3y agoA couple things: 1) as already stated elsewhere in this thread, automation has been coming for manual labor jobs for decades/centuries before AI has been coming for knowledge workers 2) I think "service" jobs is the wrong discriminator. There are lots of service jobs that are fulfilling. We're a social species and generally have the desire to contribute to our tribe. Service jobs often scratch that itch. Personal training, wedding planners, hairstylists, chef etc. are all service jobs that are fulfilling enough that people want to do those things even when they don't get paid. That should be confused with the rote, drudgery that is associated with jobs like assembly line work or fast food. I'd argue it's less about the pay (although that can't be ignored) and more about the work. Just look at the service job of attorney with its relatively high bar of entry and high pay, yet it still has pretty insane attrition rates. Even if the pay and status is good, people want a job that's fulfilling.
- yterdy 3y ago1) *Silicon-based manual automation (which is mere decades old and has hit a people-shaped wall) 2) You're conflating and categorizing jobs to benefit your argument, not as an accurate reflection of what I presented. Chef work is brutal, too. The main point seems to be that a mechanically unfulfilling job either needs to have fulfilling social contact (functioning as pressure relief, leverage, etc.), or high pay (i.e., an out). Most people would work a (safe) soul-deadening job for a year if they'd get 20 times the median wage out of it.
- gruez 3y ago>Because, actually, we do need people at PoS, if we're selling to other people. They haven't installed ordering machines[1] at your local mcdonalds yet? [1] https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ihydn_7eemNM/v0/-1x-1.jpg https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ihydn_7eemN...
- enraged_camel 3y agoYeah, I was going to ask. Last time I went to McDonalds, the lady at the counter directed me towards the order machines!
- RockRobotRock 3y agoAnd service became even worse
- benbristow 3y agoThose things never seem to work properly, at least in the UK. Receipt printers are always broken. Also was a study a few years back pre-COVID about them being covered in faeces particles. I do prefer them to ordering at the counter due to pretty bad eyesight and having more time and I usually pay by card anyway but they're not the best things.
- bumby 3y agopre-COVID about them being covered in faeces particles. Gross. But somehow I doubt the POS credit card reader would be any different. Those types of studies find grossness everywhere (feces on movie seats, urine in the bar peanuts etc)
- benbristow 3y agoDon't need to touch those unless you need to use chip and pin. 99% of card machines in the UK take contactless and mobile payments.
- gruez 3y ago
- kevin_thibedeau 3y agoReminds me of a short story from 30 years ago that centered around fast food workers who were micromanaged by an AI directing every daily activity.
- toomuchtodo 3y agohttps://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(novel)
- extr 3y agoFor anyone wondering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manna_(novel) It's got a happy ending actually.
- WJW 3y agoIt has a happy ending for the protagonist, and IIRC only because he inherited an Australian passport. Everyone else in the USA was completely stuck into being meat robots for the overseer AIs.
- JohnFen 3y agoSo, not a happy ending.
- willcipriano 3y agoDepends on if you are a protagonist or not.
- XorNot 3y agoDepends more on whether you support progressive social policies though (I'm a lot less confident Australia would go in like it did, but I'd like to think it could - we did Medicare in the 70s after all).
- legitster 3y ago> high wages for those workers Part of the problem is that for some of these jobs, there is only so much money an employee is able to generate. And for some industries you can only get away with raising prices so much (fast food is relatively easy to raise prices). I have friends in the grocery industry and they are so hard up for workers (even unionized/good-paying ones) and the margins are already so razor thin that they are looking at starting to close the store on certain days of the week. So even in unskilled positions, you are going to need huge increases in labor productivity. Which means more customers per employee. So bigger fast food places, bigger stores, bigger farms, bigger hospitals, etc.
- arrosenberg 3y ago> So even in unskilled positions, you are going to need huge increases in labor productivity. Or you could tax the excess profits that companies are earning from eliminating jobs through automation and AI, use that money to pay for healthcare and cover subsidies to bring the cost of food and other necessities down. Then the cost of labor goes down and you don't need to torture people for more productivity.
- Eisenstein 3y agoAustralia has a real minimum wage almost twice that of the USA. Do they not have grocery stores there? * https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=RMW https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=RMW > Real hourly and annual minimum wages are statutory minimum wages converted into a common hourly and annual pay period for the 30 OECD countries and six non-member countries for which they are available. The resulting estimates are deflated by national Consumer Price Indices (CPI). The data are then converted into a common currency unit using either US $ current exchange rates or US $ Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) for private consumption expenditures.
- zlg_codes 3y agoNot aimed at you, but the other commenters on your comment. There is no such thing as unskilled labor. Put a fucking normie from the street into any of these 'unskilled' jobs and find out just how many skills are needed just to do something like customer service. Looking down on those people is what will lead to another internal conflict. They'll be the ones you depend on when society goes to shit.
- Wytwwww 3y ago"Unskilled" just means that those type of jobs don't require any prior experience or qualifications. No need to interpret every word literally..
- bumby 3y agoIt is not a moral argument. It's a colloquialism that differentiates between different types of work. In part, those jobs are "unskilled" when they take less training to perform. It's not meant to demean the work or the worker. A plumber or electrician is equally "skilled" work as a software developer, largely due to the extensive apprenticeship requirements.
- WalterBright 3y agoThe local Starbucks has regular staff turnover. I've observed that it takes a new guy about 2 days to get up to speed on how to make the treats and run the cash register. Over time they'll get better and more efficient at it, but not that much.
- rgblambda 3y agoThe difference between unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour is usually based on how long it takes to learn how to do the job. It's not meant to be demeaning.
- derefr 3y agoMost jobs ever done by convicts as penal labor would be fundamentally unskilled, no? These are jobs with no expectation of unique talent or skill; with no lengthy on-the-job training; with no ability to fail at the job so badly that they would ever "fire" you. Jobs like "here's a pickaxe, start hitting rocks" or "sit here and pull down the stamper each time a license plate is in front of you" literally can't be done poorly — only done either efficiently or lazily.
- WalterBright 3y agoIf McDonald's paid their workers like software engineers, they'd have to charge at least $50 a burger, assuming the sales volume stays the same. But if burgers were $50, the sales volume would drop to zero, and the business would collapse.
- willcipriano 3y ago> they'd have to charge at least $50 a burger, That's only a little more than 100% increase from the current near $20 combo meal prices. McDonalds has high margins lately they can afford raises.
- WalterBright 3y agoA McBurger is what, about $3 ? Also, McDonald's Corporation is a different company than the McDonald's franchise that sells you the burgers.
- filoeleven 3y agoThey don’t account for externalities.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoI actually prefer fast food restaurants with ordering kiosks and not manned POSes. Just like self checkout, no need to wait in a long line.
- JohnFen 3y ago> You ask what people displaced by AI will do for a living? That. They'll do that. And then the dystopia will be complete.
- yterdy 3y agoI worked at a big box retailer. I enjoyed helping people find solutions to their problems. I assume many chefs enjoy making good food and interacting with their regulars. Ask old-school diner workers or department store salespeople how they felt about their work, particularly when they were paid an actual living wage. The soul-crushing parts aren't inherent to those jobs, they're imposed by exploitative elites. Your dystopia is a "filthy rich f*ckwad" problem, not a "thank you, please come again" problem.
- JohnFen 3y agoI'd argue that working in a fast food restaurant isn't in the same category as working in a diner or other actual restaurant, being a chef, or working for a big box retailer. However, whether or not some people find those positions enjoyable isn't relevant to my point. If everyone has to work in those jobs, most people won't find that fulfilling or enjoyable because they're not suited to that sort of work. And when you add the fact that these are low-paying jobs, you have most people doing something they hate for very little pay, because (in this scenario) the work they are suited to do is unavailable. That's the beating heart of a dystopia right there. (I put too much emphasis on the pay rate. I actually think the pay rate is of secondary importance for this point. A job you hate that pays very well will still make you unhappy.)
- yterdy 3y ago>I'd argue that working in a fast food restaurant isn't in the same category as working in a diner or other actual restaurant, being a chef, or working for a big box retailer. I don't disagree. I'd like you to think critically about why. >If everyone has to work in those jobs, most people won't find that fulfilling or enjoyable because they're not suited to that sort of work. And when you add the fact that these are low-paying jobs, you have most people doing something they hate for very little pay, because (in this scenario) the work they are suited to do is unavailable. That's the beating heart of a dystopia right there. I think this is incorrect. Firstly, because (per the proposal) they wouldn't be low-paying. Secondly, and to the contrary, if everyone has to work these jobs, then not only are they no longer jobs only for losers and the unskilled, they are suddenly jobs with a lot of staff with which to build accommodating and reasonable schedules. I WANT a society where my doctor serves food or works the register for a few hours a week, or where someone laid off from their 6-figure coding job can earn (or even be given) enough to avoid losing their house. That's the opposite of a dystopia; that's a world where even the most educated and prestigiously-employed community members are connected to the rest of us. Maybe that's a dystopia for them?
- yencabulator 3y ago> Because, actually, we do need people at PoS, if we're selling to other people. I don't know about that. I used to order from a kiosk at a Burger King in 2007 and skip the line.. At a fast food joint, point of sale is likely the easiest job to replace with a machine. My guess for the hardest to replace is cleaning..
- Slartie 3y agoHe doesn't strictly refer to a cash register and the person behind it, but to the entire counter where someone has to put your order together. The cash register ringing part can be automated away easily, but the "putting all your ordered items onto a tray" part is not automatable in any economically feasible way in 2023, and will not be for the foreseeable future.
- yencabulator 3y agoIn my experience, "Point of Sale" as a term refers to the cash register and the actions around it, not the rest of the business such as delivering the food to the customer.
- rjh29 3y agoSo it's going to be a dystopian Amazon job, where the fries and burgers come down in conveyor belts and you just put them into the right box. For 8 hours at a time. Personally I'd prefer that job be automated because it's so mindless.
- ngcc_hk 3y agoGradually not sure. Do we need people in pos. You already do your own order in kiosk and phone. No staff. Cut that. Sorry you cannot order thee we do it take your order. The food arrived by order number as like today in slot. Then the backend machine vision can enough … Sorry … I did think my Go playing is safe you know.