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Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argent
by noduerme 3y ago
Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina.
You must understand: Most Americans are not accustomed to shoving a third party currency under their mattress, or buying physical gold. The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve.
The actual significance of this is that metal is being offered at a "blue dollar" rate by one of the three largest retailers in America. Prior to there being any concept of blue dollars here. This is going to influence spot prices. The people buying this are too stupid to even go to their local coin dealer. (Which I do, sometimes, go to my local coin dealer - and trust me - the people there to buy are generally pretty stupid).
If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. But I'll leave it at the fact that they seem to be starting to alert themselves to the one critical thing that has defined Argentinian inflation for the past 20 years: Bullshit figures from the government saying the currency is stabilized, at the same time as the government takes obvious punitive measures to curb inflation. This leads to distrust which leads to the demolition of the currency.
Argentines can take a 20% drop in the Peso with a morning medialuna. Americans have no fucking idea what's going on. Americans have barely begun to put together the networks to measure it - and is evidenced by Costco taking advantage here, Americans have absolutely no peer-to-peer ways of negotiating the value of a dollar against value anymore. That's quite a dangerous situation, because it means prices are psychologically still thought of as an "act of God" as opposed to any true understanding of who is outpacing whom.
Like I said, inflation and hyperinflation especially are a steep learning curve.
If I were living in BsAs, I'd begin looking for something else to put under the floorboards besides USD. And voting for that clown who wants to tie ARS to USD as if it was 1983 is probably like trying to get tickets to the Titanic right before it sinks. You can do better than resurrecting Menem's economy. (Then again, the Fernandez are even bigger clowns, which is why I refuse to engage in anyone's politics in Argentina).
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- pjc50 3y agoArgentina has 100% annual inflation and going up while the US has less than 10% and going down. The USD is not going anywhere spectacular, because there is no more stable country to flee to. The one thing that can reliably trigger inflation in almost any country is oil/gas shortages on the global market, and you can't hedge that with precious metals nor store a 20 year supply in your house.
- ClumsyPilot 3y ago> one thing that can reliably trigger inflation in almost any country is oil/gas shortages I am convinced we are making a huge mistake by conflating shortage of raw material with general inflation. If there was shortage of food tomorrow, the correct responce is not to raise interest rates - that would cause even greater problems and famine. The correct responce is immediate intervention to expand supply - build greenhouses, accelerated permits, zero interest finance for agriculture, etc. This issue will lead to disaster as climate change bites - we are only managing fictisious financial parameters and ignoring what is happening to physical atoms.
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- mistrial9 3y ago> the US has less than 10% if you read the plea from the Argentine above.. they say "peer networks to measure value" .. it implies that the entire inflation is NOT one single number. It is in sector by sector, with local "shadows" .. In the USA, it is housing obviously in large populated areas, but also health care and the cost of a University education. Those measures have climbed triple digits while yes, petrol and candy-bars are the same.
- boppo1 3y agoThis concept is so important, but people are so unwilling to embrace it because regime economists dismiss it as nonsense.
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- kawhah 3y agoHow is it a 'blue dollar' rate? Firstly the bars are being sold only a couple of percentage points above spot. This is a perfectly normal price for decent bars or coins in small sizes. Secondly the 'blue dollar' concept refers to the fact that Argentines are restricted from buying more than a certain amount of US dollars. They pay much higher prices to buy dollars illegally. US citizens can buy as much gold as they like, and Costco is not an underground or illicit market.
- oblio 3y ago> The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve. LOL. What the US has is in no way, shape, or form hyperinflation. I've lived in a place with hyperinflation and less than 10% ain't it, chief :-)
- tialaramex 3y agoJust as with the people who wake up every morning expecting the Second Coming, or indeed a Nuclear War, these folks fixate on a hyperinflationary US economy so much they begin to hallucinate. Everything must be a sign. Strong job figures? Those are a precursor to hyperinflation. More mortgages fail than average? Hyperinflation on the horizon. Trump gets elected? He'll certainly cause hyperinflation. Trump loses? Democrat policies lead to hyperinflation. They're not capable of understanding that they're wrong. JWs for example believe that the end of the world is extremely imminent... and it has been for over a hundred years. I know JWs who were taught as kids that their grandparents would live to see "God's Kingdom" and now, having lost those grandparents, they're still preaching the same nonsense and their own grandkids will be brought up to do the same.
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- alephnerd 3y agoHN seems to have a lot of kooks these days, or maybe the kind of people who would push back have just stopped. I've seen a surprising amount of vaccine denialism, xenophobia, unsubstantiated pop Econ takes, Peter Zeihan bullshit, etc. YC should just cut the cord on this forum tbh. It's not about "Hackers" or "News" anymore.
- 542458 3y agoSegments of HN have been predicting the imminent collapse of the US dollar for at least the last decade. One thing 10-years-ago HN had but today doesn’t is the constant predictions of the imminent collapse of the VC startup model in general, or maybe I’m just looking in the wrong threads these days. That said, you may be correct in that the voices have gotten louder. Also, the Covid conspiracy stuff drives me up the wall, and I didn’t remember older HN being like that.
- arcticbull 3y ago> If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. Costco occasionally sells gold below spot if Reddit is to be believed. Most of the time it's right around spot. These 1oz bars were going for $1900 give or take, which is spot give or take. It's fairly common to see a small ~$50 ish premium on small quantities like this, around 2-3%. Costco is also not a monopoly, and it's not really vertically integrated - these bars come from PAMP, a Swiss company. You can get gold for exactly spot if you have a lot of money - just buy a futures contract and stand for delivery.
- noduerme 3y agoCostco's not a monopoly by the current definition, but they do occupy a very cozy spot between wholesale and retail, and they do vertically control everything Kirkland from mayonnaise to roast chicken. We have a strange situation right now, in the US, in which any company with at least one major competitor is considered good for the free market; and it takes a hell of a lot of work to show that those two competitors are working together. But they don't actually need to be price-fixing with each other in a classical way. One has $5 roast chickens and the other has free oil changes. This, then, is the apotheosis of consumer choice? Fuckit, I own stocks of both of them and I just hope the American consumer goes broke before I do.
- chiefalchemist 3y ago> But they don't actually need to be price-fixing with each other in a classical way. Spot on. There doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Like entities with like goals and finite ways to maximize will follow similar or like paths. The example I like to use are starlings (birds) and murmurations. Obviously, the birds aren't conspiring in any way. And yet they magically move in sync. Business competitors can do the same. So do political parties. It's not a conspiracy. It's murmuration. p.s. There's actually a more scientific term. I think it's in the math theory field about the study of such patterns. Starlings are simply the goto example. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV54oa0SyMc&pp=ygUVc3RhcmxpbmdzIG11cm11cmF0aW9u https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV54oa0SyMc&pp=ygUVc3Rhcmxpbmd...
- lotsofpulp 3y ago> I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. I am more interested in when Costco got into the gold mining business.
- tialaramex 3y agoA truly vertical business would own the stars manufacturing gold, and cut out the middle man entirely.
- datavirtue 3y agoOmg, we could slice up the sun and charge people for our solar rays. Genius!!
- infecto 3y agoNo. The easier explanation is that Costco whose customers are regularly middle class and above, love to buy whatever Costco shoves in front of them. There are other observations to be made based on cultural demographics that could also explain why these get sold so quick. I don’t think any of it has to do with your conspiracy theories though.
- addicted 3y agoThis is almost exactly it. Costco shoppers will buy whatever they push. And I suspect the cultural factors you’re talking about are the large number of middle class Indian and Chinese Costco shoppers who will buy gold regularly culturally, and if they see gold being sold in Costco I suspect they will buy it instantly.
- alephnerd 3y ago> large number of middle class Indian and Chinese Costco shoppers who will buy gold regularly culturally Gold hoarding wasn't much of a Chinese thing, and Indian gold purchases were a mix of regional biases (South Indian families seemed to purchase way more gold than equally well off North Indian families) and tend to skew more towards jewelery (why buy a store of wealth when you can buy a store of wealth and show off to the other aunties as well). This is just being used to take advantage of deflated consumer expectations, as the article itself said
- datavirtue 3y agoCostco is their hobby.
- napoleon_thepig 3y ago>Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina. As someone who is studying economics in Argentina... You're pretty much the polar opposite of Argentina when it comes to the economy.
- m101 3y agostopped reading at: The United States is starting to look like Argentina. It is nothing like Argentina.
- anovikov 3y agoThis piece seems like it was written by someone writing strictly from American perspective without seeing what happens elsewhere. Inflation in America is not, and was not anywhere in this post-Covid episode, worse than in any other developed nation except Japan, which has so many problems hardly anyone will want to use it as a point of reference. U.S. economy is in better shape than almost any other advanced nation (and poor countries may be doing better but exactly because they are poor, they are playing technology catch-up, once they are caught up they have no avenues for quick growth and are stuck on Eastern European level). It is both currently richer, and grows faster, and is more stable, and provides more ways for an everyday, layman person to invest. Europeans don't buy stocks of European companies - because they know those companies are ridden with protectionist rules and omnipowerful unions - in all of which they actively, and cynically, participate - and will never give a good return. They buy American stocks. America is virtually insulated from global warming because it's so big and diverse: some places may be wrecked but others will even win - no other nation is like that. It is virtually insulated from potential wars or invasions due to protection of the oceans. It is safe from any demographic issues because it has a guaranteed stream of immigrants with a lot more brains and money than any other country can hope attracting. It has an attitude to politics where people don't expect politicians to do much, apart from entertaining them, an expectation current generation of politicians fulfils brilliantly. Because there is no way America can be wrecked by politicians NOT doing something (as everything was built from the ground up with exactly that expectation - the government not doing anything), only threat comes from government actuallY DOING very wrong things - but American political system is built to very effectively prevent that. All in all, comparing America to other rich places, it is evidently the best place to be for the rest of XXI century, at least as long as you have cash.
- addicted 3y agoI bet the vast majority of gold being purchased at Costco is by Indian and Chinese immigrants who buy gold culturally and not as a response to global financial events and movements.
- IG_Semmelweiss 3y agoWhy do Indian and chinese buy "gold culturally"? Would it be the same reasons african americans rejected the covid shots in greater numbers than the rest of the US population? Maybe they perceive something "culturally" , or maybe something historically....which has not been forgotten?
- BirAdam 3y agoThese are cultures of saving. Saving in fiat is typically worthless.
- lotsofpulp 3y agoThe Indians and Chinese buying gold are most likely much older and not as well educated or trusting of brokerage accounts and ETFs.
- another2another 3y agoWell, Argentina had plenty of opportunities to get itself in order (and could still do so), but I'm not sure that the US would let things slide so badly over a long period - they (and the rest of the world) would rather take the short term pain. Possibly being a reserve currencies adds an additional burden to US policymakers, so they can't always take the easy way out.
- anon373839 3y ago> The actual significance of this is that metal is being offered at a "blue dollar" rate by one of the three largest retailers in America Or, it’s a novelty item to get PR buzz.
- mlinhares 3y agoComparing the US with Argentina is wild. Americans are buying gold because there's a lot of propaganda about how the country is going to hell, the economy is fucked and there's plenty of marks out there that fall for this, while unemployment is historically low and the mcdonalds close to me is offering 17 an hour for line workers. There's been a huge increase in ads about "buying hold to protect yourself" instead of buying US government bonds, that will actually make you money, because these grifters feed off fear and there's plenty of people there that will believe in it. These people will all lose money on this gold when they decide to sell it.
- noduerme 3y agoThis isn't some fear grift, just so you know. I lived in Argentina for many years, my family is from there, and I've been saying for awhile that America is on the brink of making the same mistakes that Argentina makes that lead to cycles of hyperinflation, default, and instability. It's clear that it's "wild" in the sense that everyone in the world pegs their economy to USD, and as long as you expect that to continue you have nothing to worry about. Fundamentally, though, in its divided politics and its willingness to oscillate between propping up the economy and going hog-wild with privatization, the US is the same as Argentina and has been for a long time. The only difference is the ability to project military power and enforce the value of its currency through bribery and fear; Argentina doesn't have that ability. (Nor would we think it would be great for the free market if she did).
- mlinhares 3y agoI’m Brazilian and I lived through our hyperinflation over the 80s and 90s, it’s not the same at all, if it was the economy would already be underground given how much money was printed
- marcosdumay 3y agoBrazilian here, I've also experienced the hyperinflation at the 80's and 90's. The US has recently been moving on the exact opposite direction from hyperinflation. At least on the short term, they don't have exploding debits, they are removing money from the economy, and have a concerned monetary regulator.
- osigurdson 3y agoThe current monetary policy in the US seems unlikely to lead to hyperinflation.
- takinola 3y ago> If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. The only thing Costco has a monopoly on is $1.50 hotdogs. Also, inflation in the US has dropped by more than half in the last year. I think this is the opposite of countries like Argentina.