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Is the ChatGPT and Bing AI boom already over?
- mgax 3y agoThis article feels like it’s written by someone who wants the boom to be over. Just spending a few hours with AutoGPT made me realize it’s very far dram over. It just started.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ph4evers 3y agoDoesn’t seem to be “over”, I know many people that use it on a daily basis. The initial hype might be cooling off a bit which is not strange.
- t0mas88 3y agoThe big hype "anything can be done by ChatGPT" was never going to last long. The next step will be embedding these models in other products as practical tools (for example automatically summarising things) and they become part of day to day usage. That's already happening.
- dbg31415 3y agoRemember when tesla told us their cars could drive themselves? Then, like five years later, they still weren’t really driving themselves. (= AI feels sort of like that. ChatGPT is fun, but gets as much wrong as it gets right. The only things I consistently use it for are rewriting my emails in different tones and to summarize large documents / emails that I don’t feel like reading.
- numbers_guy 3y agoBut ChatGPT is already useful if you use it correctly. I don't try to make it write my code. I use it as an expert knowledge system. If I need a specific BASH command or I want to figure out how to do something in some badly documented but widely used API, I just ask it and it gives me good hints.
- quonn 3y agoThis is spot on, I also use it to write bash scripts where I could never remember the exact syntax to accomplish a task.
- wudangmonk 3y agoThis reflects my experience with it so far but I see so many claims of multiplicative "productivity" boosts but there's always a lack of concrete examples of what this means. Avoiding a quick google/stack overflow search is not my definition of productivity boosts. ChatGPT is useful for generating text that look okay at a distance. I can see the use for creating low quality content to drive traffic to a website, something like medium. For coding its not useful for any language you are proficient in. There is just so much hype around it but I just can't find the usecase for it.
- ttctciyf 3y ago> I just can't find the usecase for it Evidently: for coding in languages you are not proficient in! What could go wrong?
- gaganyaan 3y agoIt's been great as I've been trying out Nix, exactly because I'm not familiar with Nix. It doesn't just magically solve all my problems, but it's been super helpful in showing me general aporoaches that I wasn't aware of, and also gets the answer right most of the time. You're being facetious, but I agree unironically.
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- vouaobrasil 3y agoThis is my opinion as a professional content creator: of course, the boom is over, if by 'boom' you mean the frenzy generated on the internet. But, the ONLY reason why this is true is because nowadays the internet functions on trends. It was always true that people followed trends, but the difference between attention to any one trend between when it first becomes trendy and mere days later is far greater than it's ever been. On the other hand, the economic and social impact of AI has only just begun. Now it will move more quietly to slowly integrate itself in society like a virus, making us more and more dependent on AI. This integration will push us to becoming more like automatons, needing people less, and further concentrating the wealth of the world towards Silicon Valley, because it will create a worldwide addiction and dependency on something we never needed in the first place.
- chii 3y ago> slowly integrate itself in society like a virus, making us more and more dependent on AI so you could say the same for electricity. And yet i dont see you calling it a virus! > needing people less no, needing people to do less isn't the outcome. The same amount of people can now produce _even_ more. Just like having tractors pushed out farmers that used to hire lots of manual labour. It's a good outcome in the long term. It sucks for those who get displaced - but the train of technological progress runs over tracks made of the bones of those it displaces. this has always been the case in history, and will continue to be until the day we reach post-scarcity.
- vouaobrasil 3y ago> so you could say the same for electricity. And yet i dont see you calling it a virus! It is like a virus in a way. > no, needing people to do less isn't the outcome. The same amount of people can now produce _even_ more. Just like having tractors pushed out farmers that used to hire lots of manual labour. We have reached the point of diminishing returns when it comes to technological development. We do NOT need to produce more things more efficiently. That only leads to more resource usage, which this planet can no longer accommodate. Instead, we need to concentrate on sustainability rather than productivity. > It's a good outcome in the long term. It sucks for those who get displaced - but the train of technological progress runs over tracks made of the bones of those it displaces. this has always been the case in history, and will continue to be until the day we reach post-scarcity. If we go down that route, we will use up too many resources. We should not aim for post-scarcity, but rather post-productivity. Technology is no longer making the world better, it's making it worse. If you live in a city, simply look out the window. We're destroying our planet all in the name of endless economic growth, which is only making us slaves to the technological machine.
- rvz 3y agoIn this AI cycle, we are now currently at the late stage peak of inflated expectations in the Gartner hype cycle. There is going to be a ton of losers with the incumbent big tech companies ending up as the winners.
- LASR 3y agoIt’s getting started. Serious use cases never have the glamour of hype. But I am starting to see generative AI cover more and more ground into business utility. Saying it’s over is like saying that the internet is over after the dotcom bubble burst. Nah. This is a revolutionizing foundational tech. Bigger than the internet even IMO. More like computerization of business, or the steam engine.
- HPMOR 3y agoCompletely agree. These foundational models are more akin to the invention of transistors or the internet than anything else. It's a little disheartening from a startup perspective to see already large "incumbents" in the form of Google, Open-AI but I think most of the value created, in the future, from generative AI, will not be captured by these players.
- croes 3y agoThe question is if the models can get significantly better or are they already near the peak of their capabilities.
- flangola7 3y agoResearchers are still picking low hanging fruit by the fortnight. We are a lo00000ng way from a place where we may even estimate the peak capability. Look at what GPT-4 can achieve from only receiving text and a primitive form of image training.
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- halotrope 3y agoThis is such a naive take. I’m using gpt4 daily for anything coding, sql, directions, text editing, research etc. It’s absolutely invaluable and if it was $1k a month I’d seriously consider getting it. Computer just had their GUI moment again and we’re just getting started.
- spaceman_2020 3y agoI’m using it to generate social media content, code, and for digging through documentation
- yyt88 3y agoFor many companies, it's already hard to get a human support person on the line. "It's all on our website, just look there!" In the future this will be even harder.
- danielovichdk 3y agoYes. As a programmer gpt is a very valuable tool. I use it as an extension of my mind towards getting answers for grey areas. A grey area such as "write a unit test skeleton for this method signature", where the method in my head is either too abstract or has complexity that increase my short term memory span. I find it a helpful extra pair of eyes that seems to know a lot more than can be expected by a human.
- pjmlp 3y agoUntil architects can talk to them, when models are able to deliver the same quality as many offshoring projects, it is going to be a great cost saver.
- nunodonato 3y agosame. I happily pay my 20$, such an invaluable tool. And now much more with the app on the phone
- voz_ 3y agoIt’s just begun baby
- stranded22 3y agoIt is getting blended into life - so you won’t realise AI is being used. Companies are too focussed on efficiency. I have bought a perplexity pro subscription which is excellent - it creates useful summaries of search results across various sources but also has generative AI with chatgpt 3.5 FT, 4, Claude 2 along with llama 2. I personally have difficulty trusting generative AI - too many hallucinations- so to see sources is helpful.
- Roark66 3y agoBTW, people get excited with "chatgpt for enterprise", but bing is doing something somewhat similar. For example if you go to bing.com from the internal network of one company I work for you get a "work" menu item(in addition to "news" "images" etc). If you search there it's not only searching all the company wikis, sharepoint sites, and any shared documents you might have access to, but it also answers questions "a la chatgpt" in company's context. I'm not sure how long this has been available. I noticed it last month, but it is pretty useful to search for documentation or if you don't know internal procedures. You can just just describe what you want to achieve and it is reasonably good in finding the right documents. The AI boom is far from over. It hasn't even started properly yet.
- pletnes 3y agoTo me, the hype is about big flashy use cases. The usage is like google search - scattered throughout my work week. Generate a power BI function (I don’t know the syntax at all), extract info from a strange document in english (not my mother tongue), write boring copy for marketing (I don’t do it often, I can fix the facts myself but ChatGPT’s english is better). Some use cases are enabled just the last few weeks by company-internal models. This will accelerate and evolve. Generative AI is a new appliance. We just got started.
- andrewstuart 3y agoThe next step must be something like wikigpt where humans can actively teach it what it doesn’t know or how to do things better.
- j-a-a-p 3y agoAn acquaintance of mine wrote commercial content for a living. Pretty repetitive work, which he performs remotely. He recently quit because of AI. This will happen more and more and the people concerned will often have a negative bias on AI. To wrap AI technology into a chatbot is a deceiving, strategic move. It is a wolf in sheep's clothes aiming for people to believe the technology is there to help them. As such it is a solution looking for the problem, and now a year later there are not enough problems that a chat interface can solve. In reality the genie is out of the box, but not to help people rather to replace them. Reduction of ChatGPT traffic does not tell us what is really ahead of us.
- sublinear 3y agoWell, yeah. The use cases are fundamentally limited by its approach. Statistical techniques underperform compared to symbolic rules no matter how much hardware you throw at the problem. This has been known from the start. Anyway, all known AI techniques struggle with common sense reasoning. The majority of ambiguities in natural language are distinct and uncorrelated. Combining known techniques is not going to solve the problem. Either we discover new theories, or revise our natural languages to be less ambiguous (likely a deeply unpopular social change). Both will probably occur in this century. As for ChatGPT and Bing? I expect these brands will be dead long before we get to the next wave of AI. Additional reading for the curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge
- akomtu 3y agoI feel like a passable reasoning will be achieved by an equally dumb / brute force approach. Basic reasoning isn't different from pattern matching. When one calculates an integral, he matches the function against known patterns until something sticks and applies the transformation. Similarly, logical reasoning is often just noticing patterns (a or not b) = (b -> a).
- wcoenen 3y agopalm-2-l-instruct scores 0.909 on Winogrande few-shot. Where are the symbolic rule systems that get such results? https://github.com/LudwigStumpp/llm-leaderboard/blob/main/README.md https://github.com/LudwigStumpp/llm-leaderboard/blob/main/RE...
- nopinsight 3y agoLLMs still do not match humans on Winograd Schema Challenge but the top ones already get pretty close. The current top model, Vega v2, is already at 98.6 (compared to human’s 100.0). https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard Several other LLMs score higher than 95.0 as well. I suspect some upcoming multimodal LFMs will be very close to human level since their training data would include video, audio, and possibly even physical interaction input. Moreover, top LLMs already surpass the human baseline on SuperGLUE, a suite of many language tasks. This is my experience when using GPT-4 as well. It’s like an extremely well-read intern who follows instructions much better than an average person on the street. It is just often a little drunk or sleepy at work ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, ……for now.
- marginalia_nu 3y agoI don't think the technology is going anywhere, but the hype is cooling down, as limitations are starting to be better understood, and the 'Dude! Don't you get it! At this pace[1] we'll have a 1e304 parameter GPT17 model and weaponized AGI by noon on Thursday'-bros have quieted down a bit. [1] https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- tomjen3 3y agoChat GPT what is betteridges law of headlines?
- hendersoon 3y agoIf anything it's underhyped, in that the technology will be foundational to how we do work and sort through tremendous data volumes in the future. The pushback is simply that these giant companies haven't found any clear way to monetize primary LLMs as a service-- and they won't, because open-source models are improving at a breakneck pace and hardware requirements (and thus cost) is dropping due to community development. Ultimately I don't see those primary LLMaaS offerings being particularly profitable. Secondary LLM applications are a completely different matter. For example, LLMs acting as medical scribes, sitting in your doctor's office and filling out your chart, handling a job that formerly required a skilled human. That sort of thing will make tons of money. It just probably won't use Azure/Amazon/Google LLMs to do it.
- redhale 3y agoThis is surely the "Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)"[1] of our time. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37362181 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37362181