54 ms·
Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024
- holmesch 3y ago2024?
- gigatexal 3y agoA blockbuster quarter for sure with eps up 854%.
- NickC25 3y agoAbsolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?
- reilly3000 3y agoIt’s basically a meme stock now. I don’t think anyone should be surprised by wide swings and irrational pricing going forward into the next few months.
- pb7 3y agoWhat makes it a meme stock? It's printing money from an industry that is only starting. This isn't crypto nonsense.
- fnordpiglet 3y agoYeah, every company of any note is planning how to use AI, and a lot of the use cases are already proved out. This isn’t speculative nonsense. The question is how big does it get, not will it be big. Crypto and blockchain never had an actual proved out use case. There was an interesting idea but no one ever could figure out a way it was useful. The costs associated were much higher than the risks of not using it. People who think this is a meme aren’t paying attention, and they’re certainly not in the rooms of power where AI planning is happening at megacorps. I’ve been in them, and it’s serious and material and we are just now beginning to scratch the surface.
- reilly3000 3y agoI’m saying all of that growth has been priced in for multiple years now. It’s likely to have very solid fundamentals and new relationships in enterprises everywhere for years to come. As such it’s ripe for overvaluation by both retail and institutional traders. If I had a horse in this race I would ride the wave for a while as others piled on, then take a nice honest profit before one of their many competitors turns in a healthy AI driven quarter like this. It will still be a strong stock, but expect some significant flux in a correction.
- fnordpiglet 3y ago100% it’ll be an overshoot. Always is. But, I think the top is really hard to gauge this time.
- kelvie 3y ago(Not sure if it's true), but a meme stock is one whose price is propped up by retail traders, and spreads through social media / word-of-mouth, as memes do. How we prove it's one is probably another matter.
- pb7 3y agoRetail investors make up a low single digit percent of individual stock ownership. /r/wallstreetbets is not putting even a dent in a $1T company's stock price.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoTop line growing 100% a year, faster recently..... Doesn't take long for $50 bill pa to turn into 1 trillion pa at that rate...
- vsareto 3y agoI don't think the market leader for graphics cards -- a technically complex product compared to a bunch of brick stores selling video games -- is what you can consider a meme stock
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mikeweiss 3y agoIn my opinion it's likely mostly pull forward demand. Companies are racing to buy as many chips as possible and hoard them. I already saw a few posts here on HN from companies that threw down insane amounts of $$ on H100s and are now looking to rent out their excess capacity. I'm guessing we'll be seeing a lot more posts like that soon.
- mortehu 3y agoLooking to rent out, or fully booked for the next year and looking to buy more GPUs?
- mholm 3y agoNvidia is the pickaxe seller in a gold rush. Their valuation is very much tied to how big AI grows in the next several years, and how quickly competitors can arise. I could easily see them continuing to go up from here, especially if AI keeps on expanding utility instead of leveling off as some fear.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- creer 3y agoVery much so. Nvidia was lucky with the perfect sequence of video and compute farms, then cryptocurrency and model training, and now the model training direction is flowering into application (hopes) left and right. But they did great with their luck. And now they are yet again in the position of selling tools to soak up everyone else's capital investment power. They are still now (and yet again) at the perfect spot for a giant new market. But that's still a high valuation - that is even if that new market grows to the sky, it's not clear that it can justify that new valuation. Is Nvidia failing anytime soon? No. Is it the best investment you can find? That's harder to tell which is why the complaint of "very high valuation already". It's not in doubt that it's a great business. It's less easy to decide whether it's a great investment to get in right now. But everything is relative a PE around 40-60 is NOT historically crazy high for the verge of a giant new market. And yet it is very high for a trillion dollar market cap. This is exciting: a trillion dollar market cap at the verge of a giant new market!
- tmn 3y agoValuation fundamentals don't justify current prices. That said it could easily go higher (much higher). Passive investing has created a constant bid that has significantly distorted price discovery compared to pre passive era.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- rvz 3y ago> The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. 8% is close to nothing in stocks. Biotech stocks go up and down more than that without earnings announcements. > Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run? As long as fine-tuning, training or even using these models are inefficient and no other efficient alternatives to that without these GPUs, then Nvidia will remain unchallenged unless that changes. EDIT: It is true like it or not AI bros. There are too many to list. For example, just yesterday: Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) 38% up. China SXT Pharmaceuticals (CM:SXTC) down 25%. Regencell Bioscience Holdings (RGC) 28% up. NanoViricides (NNVC) up 20%. Armata Pharmaceuticals (ARMP) down 23%. [0] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech
- pb7 3y agoBiotechs are lottery tickets, not stocks. You're just gambling on binary results.
- gorenb 3y agoStocks are lottery tickets…
- rvz 3y agoExactly. Nvidia is just one of many lottery tickets and 8% in one day is hardly volatile in stocks.
- mthoms 3y agoThe point is that 8% is volatile relative to the market cap. That's a massive amount of (paper) wealth being created.
- saberience 3y agoVolatility in stocks is measured in terms of “IV” (implied volatility) and Nvidia (and Tesla) have some of the highest IV in the stock market which is why they are so interesting for people trading in options making money from theta decay. Also I would add, volatility measures continued volatility over periods of time, not single days. Most pharma stocks are essentially static for months or years until they announce one good result and the stock jumps 30% in a day. This doesnt mean they are volatile stocks, compare Gileads IV to Tesla for example.
- squeaky-clean 3y agoIt's pretty overpriced already if you're looking at the fundamentals, and has been for a while. But fundamentals haven't really mattered in tech stocks for a long time. If you want the responsible advice, it's overpriced. If you want my personal advice, well I bought more yesterday afternoon.
- what_ever 3y agoCan you add a little more color on what fundamentals is it overpriced? Have you looked at their QoQ growth (not even YoY) for last few quarters? I would say the stock price is just trying to keep up with the numbers they are putting out.
- ripper1138 3y agoTheir quarterly dividend is only $0.04 per share, total assets at 50B (vs 350B+ for other 1T companies), they cannot easily sell more chips and increasing price can only go so far.
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoA lot of stocks don't pay dividends at all. They are problematic with tax and theoretically the same benefit can be achieved with buybacks.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoI don't see it. It would have been overpriced if not for this insane report. 854% YoY earnings growth. A PE that's now below 50 (even taking into account the $500 share price). Its not overpriced anymore. In fact if there's anything left in the tank or this is at all sustained it's cheap.
- epolanski 3y agoThis incredible growth was already priced in at 250$. Now it's just crazy.
- csomar 3y agoI would not predict a peak if I didn't predict this rise (which most people didn't?). A new crypto that requires GPU mining, continued AI boom, GPUs being used for something else?, etc.. Their price could go infinitely up.
- gen220 3y agoThe fundamental model of company valuation is that the company's equity is worth the accumulation of the company's future cash flows, typically discounted by some rate so that predicted cash flows 5 years from now are worth some % less than 100%, with the intent of pricing in uncertainty. Nvidia has had a watershed moment of revenue growth, because they're the only significant player in the space of top-of-the-line GPUs for training LLMs. Their current valuation bakes in the assumption that not only is this unprecedented level of pricing power durable, but that top line revenue will also grow significantly over the next few years. Reminder that Nvidia is selling chips, mostly to datacenters, whose purchasing habits are primarily driven by "customer" demand (where customers are, in this case, tech companies wanting to train neural nets). So a bet that they go up from here is a bet that datacenters will want at least as many chips in the next N continuous quarters, and will be willing to pay the current premium that Nvidia is charging, today. The corollary is you're betting that "customer demand" for ever-improving GPUs is climbing an incredibly upwards, secular (read: permanent, non-cyclical) trajectory, such that it outpaces the assumptions of these already-lofty expectations. I think betray my own opinion, but the price is what it is. :)
- saberience 3y agoSo you think demand for AI driven software and tools is going to stop growing over the next few years? It’s a big call. I think it’s just the beginning personally but time will tell.
- gen220 3y agoNote it isn’t the demand for AI driven software and tools that has to be sustained or increased, it’s the demand for massive GPUs that are used to train AI tools. To make a flawed analogy, but if people want oil (AI), NVDA sells drills (means of AI production). Demand for each is obviously correlated, but the profile of demand for the two products is really different.
- mikestew 3y agoWhelp, I guess those September NVDA call options I sold are going to get exercised. Who woulda guessed after the crypto fallout that "AI" would come along and bump the price back up. Record revenues, and a dividend of $0.04 on a $450 stock? That's not even worth the paperwork. For example, if you bought 100 shares, that's $45K. From that, around September $4 will show up in your account, which you have to pay taxes on. So $3 or so net on a $45,000 investment. Sure, there were stock buybacks, but why keep the token dividend around?
- kinghajj 3y agoShould have sold a call credit spread instead! For large shareholders, the dividend would still be worthwhile. From what I could find, Jensen has 1.3 million shares, so he'd receive over $200k in dividends this year. You might think that's chump change, but another source lists his salary at just under $1m; another 20% bump in liquid income is nothing to sneeze at.
- loeg 3y agoThis benefit is basically only to large shareholders who can't sell stock. Which might be insiders like Jensen and... anyone else? Everyone else can just sell, like, 0.0001% of their stock or whatever.
- catchnear4321 3y agomany times what a lot of people make in a year is nothing to sneeze at. especially when it is awarded for merely having a stack of papers.
- Vvector 3y agoThe stock is up 9% or $45/share after hours. Jensen just made $58 million. $200k doesn't pay his dry cleaning bill.
- wincy 3y agoGetting all those leather jackets cleaned is expensive!
- HDThoreaun 3y agoUp more than 10% after hours compared to close yesterday. I really thought NVDA had hit its ceiling at $1+ trillion, apparently not. Really does feel like a huge opportunity for Intel to me. They have the fab capacity to pump out at least reasonably competitive GPUs if they can figure out the software side of things. P/E still above 50 even after the AI craze 9x'd eps this quarter. Still hard for me to see that valuation ever makes sense but what do i know.
- smolder 3y agoI wonder if this is what Nancy Pelosi's husband actually bought all his NVDA in preparation for, way back then. Their prices have been shit for consumers since then, but it's still been good for them.
- UncleOxidant 3y agoIntel doesn't seem to be able to execute. It's not just pumping out GPUs - for AI you need drivers, and the equivilent of CUDA and all the various libraries built on CUDA like cuDNN. They do have OneAPI but it hasn't caught on like CUDA in that space. It's kind of too bad since OneAPI is open and CUDA is not.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoRight but the market is saying that a dominant GPU business is worth more than a trillion dollars. Just hard for me to believe that they can't get the business off the ground with that kind money on the table. Can't they just hire all of nvidia's developers and pay them 5x as much?
- tgma 3y ago- Can't they just hire all of nvidia's developers and pay them 5x as much? No.
- UncleOxidant 3y ago> Can't they just hire all of nvidia's developers and pay them 5x as much? Lol... Intel is famously stingy when it comes to salaries.
- rightbyte 3y agoSeems like the shovel seller is on top of this AI thing?
- solardev 3y agoI miss the small graphics company that used to care about gamers :(
- FirmwareBurner 3y agoIntel has entered the chat. If you wanna game on abudget with lots of VRAM go for A750 or A770.
- bozhark 3y agoIntel has left the chat.
- FirmwareBurner 3y agoIntel is very much in the game. Every of their recent big driver update ads double digit performance boosts on AAA titles.
- helf 3y ago[dead]
- beebeepka 3y agoWhen was that? Surely it must have been at least a decade before the GTX 970 "4GB" but maybe after all the driver cheating in the late 90s and early 2000s. I no longer buy nvidia hardware but I do enjoy stock price getting higher. I just wish I had the sense to buy more, a lot more, stock when it was much cheaper. How does a chicken shit like me make big money :(
- grouchomarx 3y agoIt's a tough game. Gotta have the guts to get in and stay in
- wmf 3y agoThe 970 was amazing for gaming; the 3.5GB problem was just for CUDA.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- xnx 3y agoThe good new is that Nvidia's high GPU prices motivate everyone (Intel, AMD, ARM, Google, etc.) to try and tackle the problem by making new chips, making more efficient use of current chips, etc. For all the distributed computing efforts that have existed (prime factorization, SETI@Home, Bitcoin, etc.), I'm surprised there isn't some way for gamers to rent out use of their GPU's when idle. It wouldn't be efficient, but at these prices it could still make sense.
- Conscat 3y agoI am certain that several years ago, I was given an ad for exactly such a service and even tried it out, but I cannot for the life of me remember its name. It had some cute salad motif, and its users are named "chefs". EDIT: It was just named Salad. https://salad.com/ https://salad.com/ https://salad.com/download https://salad.com/download
- WanderPanda 3y agoWith interconnect being the biggest limitation these days I don’t think this would work.
- xnx 3y agoI'm not familiar with all the varied uses of GPUs but it seems like image generation could feasibly be distributed: large upfront download of models, then small inputs of text and settings, and small output of resulting images.
- WanderPanda 3y agoFor inference I agree! But training requires centralized gradient steps
- vajrabum 3y agoIf you're in a data center and running large training jobs then RDMA over Nvidia Mellanox Infiniband cards over high speed ethernet (like 100GB) are used to ship coefficients around without having that transfer bottleneck in the CPU.
- TechnicolorByte 3y agoIncredible company. It’s absolutely insane how far ahead they are with the investments they made over a decade ago. So nice to see a “hard” engineering (from silicon to software) SV-founded company getting all this recognition. Especially after what has felt like a decade of SV hype software companies dominating the mainstream financial markets pre-pandemic with a spate of overpriced IPOs or large ad-revenue generating mega corporations.
- epolanski 3y agoAre they so far ahead? AMD GPUs get comparable results as of late on Stable Diffusion. Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science.
- johnvanommen 3y ago> Software and hardware from competitors will catch up, crunching 4/8/16 bit width numbers is no rocket science. I made the mistake of buying an A770 from Intel, based on the spec sheet. Hardware is comparable to what Nvidia is selling, for 70% of the price. It's basically a useless paperweight. The AI software crashes constantly, and when it's not crashing, it performs at half the level of Nvidia's cards. Turns out that drivers and software compatibility are a big deal, and Intel is way way behind in that arena.
- epolanski 3y agoSure, but there's lots of room for improvement and plenty of financial benefits to do so.
- andromeduck 3y agoThe problem is HW companies like Intel are dominated by EEs and bean counters. Both see software as cost center.
- geodel 3y ago
- marricks 3y agoWhy, and what does it mean, for Nvidia to announce fiscal results a year ahead of time. Is it just promise to sell chips in advance, so that's how far it's booked, do they own a Time Machine...?
- scrlk 3y agoFinancial years are named by the calendar year that they end in, so FY24 is the financial year ending in 2024.
- lotsofpulp 3y agoI have never seen it referred to as financial year until now, but I guess it makes sense too. Fiscal year is the typically used term.
- epolanski 3y agoEvery company I know of estimates future revenue. It's not black magic, they have contracts in place and know both how many GPUs will be produced and sold give or take few %s.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoThey announced Q2 results, ending July 31. Their fiscal year is a little unusual, it ends at end of Jan. So their 2024 year ends Jan 31 2024.
- steno132 3y agoNvidia's undervalued. Once enterprise adoption of AI picks up, demand for chips will increase 2-3 times further. I'm told Nvidia's building their own fab in Southeast Asia over the next few years. This will massively boost their output.
- kccqzy 3y agoIt remains debatable whether mass enterprise adoption of AI would happen first, or Nvidia's competitors coming up with equivalent chips would happen first.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoOn the surface, it's not debatable. Enterprises are going full steam ahead on AI. Building out an ecosystem to challenge Nvidia seems like a decade long battle, if it's even possible.
- haldujai 3y agoWhat is full steam ahead for enterprises? It's not like they're throwing autoregressive LLMs into production any time soon. In any case Nvidia is expecting to ship ~550k H100s in 2023, hardly enough to satisfy every user. Tesla decided to in-house. TPUv4 and Gaudi2 exceeded A100 performance, they just never hit scale or the market and then Hopper added optimization for transformers rendering these chips relatively obsolete. Nvidia's lead is not unassailable and it seems incredibly unlikely that they would not face serious competition within the next 2-3 years given the $ being thrown around.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoLarge enterprises are already putting them into production. I have direct experience with it. It's not unassailable. But it's going to take a lot to make any difference to Nvidia's volume or pricing, let alone a meaningful difference. They already face serious competitors in google and aws with TPU and inferentia, but those competitors are at a pretty big disadvantage for now (and others too). The cuda ecosystem is a big advantage. Nvidia has a lot of leverage with semi manufacturers because of volume. They spend way more on chip R&D than their competitors in the space. They have brand recognition. You can buy and own Nvidia chips v tpu and inferentia. It's... a tough road ahead for competitors.
- anjel 3y agoI've seen a regular stream of reports on HN about people "sort of" getting AI done on laptops and non and lowly GPU machines. Is it unreasonable or far-fetched to imagine that someone figures out how to efficiently get it all done without GPUs and pull the rug out from under Nvidia?
- SpacePortKnight 3y agoJust like existence of MariaDB does not prevent Snowflake from being worth $50B, just being good enough on laptop is not enough to replace the need for the cutting edge.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- lsh123 3y agoTraining is very expensive and requires GPUs. What you read about is running trained model on consumer devices (even phones!).
- FreshStart 3y agoLet's assume for a moment you could sort of trade parallel computation for vast space, fast search and retrieval. So in this hypotheticals computational theory, you could build a lookup machine from CPUs and ssds.. squeezing the parallel cores into one CPU, by squeezing the shaders running into a million hashes.. And before you know it your simulating a micro verse trying desperately to find out how to avoid climate change. What if God hates recursion?
- bob1029 3y agoI have an options strategy that is riding on this possibility right now. All you have to do is take 5 seconds in a typical code base to determine that the way we write software today isn't exactly... ideal. Given another 6-12 months, I cannot comprehend another ~OOM not being extracted somewhere simply by making the software better.
- creer 3y ago
- nathias 3y agoselling shovels for a few different gold rushes seems to be profitable
- seydor 3y agoIt s come to the point that people are begging competitors to do something in the space. Who knows, maybe some cheap Chinese asic that can do matrix multiplication ends up eating their lunch. You d think that, at the level of capitalization of tech companies, competition would be cutthroat
- zapdrive 3y agoThere are a bunch of startups trying to develop AI GPUs. Someone linked them in a comment a few days ago.
- TheAlchemist 3y agoCapitalization in itself is meaningless. If you have 50% of NVidia outstanding shares, and you try to sell 10% of that, the capitalization would crater. What really counts is the profit. It is pretty huge now, but not 'that' huge (at least yet).
- creer 3y agoTry and buy 10% and see what happens! Your point stands but in both directions: The market cap is not "the value of the company" as in, you can neither buy it or sell it at that price.
- mortehu 3y agoHistorical acquisition premiums give you a distribution of what you can expect to pay for the whole company given the market cap.
- smoldesu 3y agoYou're kinda underselling what exactly Nvidia is doing right now. If any Chinese company could compete with something like the DGX GH200, they would be building GPUs for the PRC, not exporting them. There's also the problem of industry hostility, anyways. Even if Nvidia was dethroned in the hardware-space, it's unlikely their successor would improve the lock-in situation. It will take an intersectional effort to change things.
- 3y ago
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- nabla9 3y agoTheir revenues are seriously supply restricted. ~2x revenue if chip manufacturing could keep up with demand. Packaging seems to be the bottleneck just now.
- TheAlchemist 3y agoWhat's also pretty interesting that they actually didn't sell more chips this quarter - they ... just pretty much doubled the prices (hence the huge margin). This is what having a monopoly looks like ! This is also why companies that manufacture their cards didn't report any uptick in profits. I'm wondering how this play out in some months ? Do they have any pricing power with respect to NVidia ? Or NVidia could just switch to another manufacturer ?
- thfuran 3y agoThere probably isn't another manufacturer they can switch high end stuff to. They recently tried moving at least some of their cards to Samsung but switched back last generation due to yield issues.
- pb7 3y ago[flagged]
- parthdesai 3y ago> Raising prices means you are a monopoly? Not sure if you're intentionally choosing to ignore their point, but what they meant is Nvidia can unilaterally choose to raise the prices and customers can't do anything since they're a monopoly. You can't just say well, i'll go to the next shop and buy something for cheaper.
- 3y ago
- pier25 3y agoSo gaming is now less than 20% of their business? Holy shit.
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoWell their earnings went up 854% YoY and that's basically all in the data center segment so it makes sense. People are having a really hard time grasping that sometimes established companies 10x.
- parhamn 3y agoA tangent to this I've been thinking about quite a bit is how big a moat drivers are to the software/hardware ecosystem. They're a major moat/hurdle (depending on your perspective) for operating systems, new hardware platforms, graphics cards, custom chips, and more. It's interesting to think that we're not _that_ far from being able to generate decent drivers for things on the fly with the latest code gen advancements. Relevant to this, that could reduce the monopolies here, but perhaps as interesting is we can have more new complete OSes with more resources allocated to the user experience vs hardware compatibility.
- bdangubic 3y agowhen everyone is digging for gold you want to be the one selling shovels
- pstuart 3y agoIs there any scuttlebutt on AMD investing in making their GPUs/ROCm work as seamlessly with the standard ML tooling as Nvidia? It seems like it would be "easier" now that the path has been cleared and all they have to do is reach parity.
- ayakang31415 3y agoTheir GPUs have been very performant for my research (DNN training). However, their VRAM could be much larger. In my mind CPU ram is very cheap (for 32GB, it is currently around $65). But their GPUs for DNN that I use oh HPC are always less than 32GB but the GPUs are very pricey. Does anyone know why they don't increase their VRAM capacity so I can test models that require higher VRAM? Is VRAM considerably more expensive to attach to GPU versus CPU ram?
- samspenc 3y agoFolks on Reddit's /r/pcmasterrace have been discussing this for years - the consensus seems to be that Nvidia could add more VRAM to its GPUs without too much additional cost - but they don't want to, in order to push higher spending businesses and consumers to buy their more expensive chips to get more VRAM at exponential higher costs.
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoYeah their high VRAM cards (80gb h100) cost $40k. That's their price differentiator. It's the reason for their profits. nVidia is now <20% gaming in terms of revenue and that gaming revenue has much tighter margins than the 80% datacenter/professional market revenue which is almost all profit sine 80gb ram doesn't cost $40k more. So yes it'd be nice if nVidia made it so there was no reason for their $40k AI cards to exist. But they aren't going to do that.
- jules22 3y agoI hope Intel, as the underdog, can do mid-tier cards, but with lot more VRAM. I can see myself using multiple LLM models at once, not necessarily running at once, but interleaved.
- AnotherGoodName 3y agoAgreed. I think people would accept the <50% perf as long as there's plenty of RAM to play in. I think that's the biggest risk to Nvidia right now. No one's catching up to the topline perf or even power efficiency (Intel actually suck at perf/power right now) but they might be able to compete with raw GPU costs at least. Give us a $2k card with 256gb ram and we'll probably take it over the $40k 80gb cards despite the power efficiency and topline perf that the $40k card has.
- synaesthesisx 3y agoI’ve been a longtime Nvidia investor (since ~2014 or so) and have no plans on selling anytime soon. Their market dominance will be tough to unseat, and the only other company making strides in silicon is Apple.
- andromeduck 3y agoIsn't Google the main competititor in AI training? Maybe tenstorrent, rivos & others too.
- gen220 3y agoHow durable do we think their Revenue is? To remind us all, they're selling capitalized assets, not contracts or services. Is the marginal demand for GPU chips over the next 3 years enough to sustain (or grow?) current revenues and keep this valuation afloat? To me, it feels like a comparatively fragile situation to find themselves in, to convince the world of 2025 that they need even more chips, unless "everybody needs to train their own LLM" is a secular trend. I'm not sure if investors fully appreciate the nuances of this boom, or if I'm not fully appreciating how many GPUs "need" to be held by different companies (and sovereign entities, if you've read the headlines in the last couple weeks) to train LLMs in the coming decade.
- gmm1990 3y agoIt seems pretty similar to Tesla’s valuation with a product that won’t be as sticky as electric cars
- redox99 3y agoThey are not similar at all. Tesla P/E is 67, Nvidia's P/E is 244.
- Gareth321 3y agoWhich is - excuse my French - fucking insane. The current PE ratio of 244 is pants on head ridiculous. That's 244 years worth of exceptionally high profit just to break even. Your great great great great great great great great grandchildren could take over your shares at the same value as today and the company would still be overpriced. That's centuries worth of technological change and high volatility baked into the price. There is no way on Earth the company is worth anywhere near that. No one can impute that kind of extraordinary risk effectively. This is now officially a meme stock. Nvidia is proof positive we currently have an equities bubble. Not even Tesla was this overpriced, and they're still down 40% since their all time high.
- redox99 3y ago
- srj 3y agoI interned at NVIDIA in 2009 on the kernel mode driver team. Was super fun there in terms of the project work and the people. If the code still exists, I created the main class that schedules work out to the GPU on Windows. That level of programming gave such rewarding moments in between difficult debugging sessions. When I wanted to test a new kernel driver build I needed to walk into some massive room with all of these interconnected machines that emulated the non-yet-fabricated GPU hardware. One of the full time people on my team was going insane trying to track down a memory corruption issue between GPU memory and main memory when things paged out the entire time I was there. Back then the stock was around $7/share and the CEO announced a 10% paycut across the board (even including my intern salary) and had an all hands with everyone in the cafeteria. It's pretty cool they went from that vulnerable state, with Intel threatening to build in GPU capabilities, to the powerhouse they are today.
- radium3d 3y agoI do wonder though, why has moore's law stopped in its tracks? Using CS:GO benchmark, a 1070 got 218 FPS, while a 4090 is at 477 FPS. Only a ~2.2x increase in FPS in 6 years? :(
- bexsella 3y agoFPS of one specific game isn't a great indicator of GPU grunt.
- transcriptase 3y agoAdmittedly knowing nothing, I’m going to assume that a great deal of the advantages of the latest generation aren’t going to improve performance in a decade old game since the engine won’t touch them. How does a 1070 fare versus a 4090 in Hogwarts Legacy or another modern game at 1440 or 4K?
- Mechanical9 3y agoMy guess is that we've reached a peak in the amount of new investment that can be made annually, based on tech nearing total proliferation throughout society. The tech can sort of only advance as fast as tech companies can grow, and they can't grow exponentially after they account for some percentage of the global workforce. My guess is that we'll see improvements at closer to the current rate rather than at an increasing rate.
- omnitron 3y agoI thought Nvidia just make graphics cards for games, how did they end up making general purpose CPUs like Intel that actually is more powerful than Intel
- omnitron 3y agoDid Nvidia get lucky even though Intel was bigger at the time or could it have been predicted that AIs would work better in GPUs?
- smcleod 3y agoIt's such a shame that these big companies are allowed to make so much profit, 'the shareholder is the customer' only furthers disproportionate wealth distribution.
- edpichler 3y agoGood for the shareholders and for all the ones who worked and devoted themselves to research and solve all of these new challenging problems. We also need more Nvidias. More competition in the chipset industry.
- szlin13 3y ago"The more you buy, the more you save." - Jenson Huang