haldujai

4 ms·

1.
by haldujai 10d ago
> China will become the world's reserve currency by 2032. China doesn’t want this for the same reason that some Americans currently in power don’t want the USD to be the world’s reserve currency - it comes with an export and trade c
2.
by haldujai 14d ago
While not the only ones, the NYT notoriously pushed a lot of false and poorly verified information from questionable sources as fact in an effort to be the first to publish. They subsequently issued a mea culpa. https://www.nytim
3.
by haldujai 17d ago
No, just that “What if I just cheat to get the treat” is also something my lovable Boxer does when I hide rewards as well. I suppose her energy is limited but even if infinite, and with caution, I estimate the chances of a mass extinction e
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by haldujai 17d ago
Not explicitly, but hacking HF is within the scope of “solve this problem at all costs” + no/poor guardrails + infinite budget + unsolvable problem.
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by haldujai 22d ago
> The US produces about 70% more electricity per capita. And consumers use 4x as much per capita. Industrial generation per capita China comes out ~2x > industrial electricity prices in China are roughly 34% higher than in the US For
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by haldujai 23d ago
1. I don’t think that’s a very strong argument. OpenAI and Anthropic don’t buy the vast majority of GPUs they use they rent capacity. Nvidia could just the same rent those GPUs out for inference and actually have way better margins than the
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by haldujai 23d ago
About the same, 5-10, when you consider major (aka frontier) airlines. Actually not a bad comparison. Both burn massive amounts of up front capital to protect an oligopoly in the hopes their commodity product eventually pays off.
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by haldujai 1mo ago
> 1. The whole Burry argument is that AI hardware becomes obsolete faster. If aux hardware can be reused, that works against the argument. Burry’s main argument is depreciation is being understated and the capex vintages will not be paid
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by haldujai 1mo ago
1. Not really, current valuations are priced for persistent 80%+ margins based on spot. If auxiliary hardware lasts longer (I.e. next gen GPU reusing the same shell) then that reduces supply pressure and spot prices. 2. Jevon’s paradox is a
10.
by haldujai 1mo ago
1. The same isn’t necessarily true of the rest of the hardware stack which may be reused between accelerator generations. 2. You’re missing the “New Nvidia chips 10x B200, compute requirement grows less than 10*software improvements YoY -&g
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by haldujai 1mo ago
Paying customer at what price? My understanding of Meta’s request is API pricing per token (of course discounted for volume) for content moderation etc. which is a lower margin product than Gemini enterprise seats. They also prioritize inte
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by haldujai 2mo ago
It is very suspicious when they’re paying for GB300 more than they turn around and charge those out as a4x instances, it was announced a week before IPO and they have a 90 day exit option. > The RPO can be anywhere from 3 - 6 years, sure
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by haldujai 2mo ago
Backlog meaning RPO over 5 years. It’s not as if they would be able to collect 250B today from OpenAI and Anthropic if they were to have that compute. In any case, my point is that the SpaceX deal specifically likely has ulterior motives.
14.
by haldujai 2mo ago
A deal with a company Google has a share of, announced a week before their IPO, with very non-committal terms and ramp period protections delivered in one large block on short term notice priced likely at the high end of what Google charges
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by haldujai 2mo ago
It hasn’t bent already? 2022-2024 certainly seemed far more exponential than 2024 to present.
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by haldujai 2mo ago
No, that’s not my argument. Rather it is that a counterexample to a mathematical proof whether produced by human or AI may be a scientific discovery but it is not inherently new and brilliant by definition. The case for AI is also weakened
17.
by haldujai 2mo ago
The comment more likely means the harness source was read, not memory from a previous run and the first few turns of bp35 appear to be a cold start. Sure none of this is certain without the source. I do believe the authors that this schema
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by haldujai 2mo ago
If you are referring to the Jacobian conjecture Claude only provided a counterexample, not a disproof, neither of which is necessarily a “new brilliant scientific idea”.
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by haldujai 2mo ago
No but the session traces are available. It passes the sniff test considering how AGI-3 is scored and how this wrapper works. For example on bp35 it took fable 290M and >12k simulated turns for 566 real turns and finish more efficiently
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by haldujai 2mo ago
For frontier models, not local. https://schema-harness.github.io/
21.
by haldujai 2mo ago
> Say, Claude 7 creates a new, brilliant scientific idea every 1 out of 1000 times. I would not hand wave that away - but Claude 5 feels closer to Claude 1 than the hypothetical Claude 7 you propose. I do not believe one can extrapolate
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by haldujai 2mo ago
Agreed. Berkeley / CXRO is the American beyond-NA research center not Albany NanoTech which doesn’t have a charter AFAIK. They are just beginning to install the EXE:5200 in Albany now.. They do have the xLight program which doesn’t hav
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by haldujai 3mo ago
Claude, the model in the post.
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by haldujai 3mo ago
Radiologist who does read shoulder MRI would like to add that over half the annotations are wrong, glaring mistakes in anatomy and cardinal direction which begs the question of how is it making these findings without knowing what it’s looki
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by haldujai 3mo ago
Ultrasound is very operator dependent. Shoulder ultrasound is very hard. Visualizing the labrum let alone detecting pathology is very very hard and you will miss huge chunks of it due to limited windows. Ignoring all of this, there are few
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by haldujai 3mo ago
Half baked images? No one said that is impossible. I am skeptical of any brain ultrasound claim that doesn’t use skull correction which requires a CT scan. Very large chunks of vasculature and major arteries are missing in the images they p
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by haldujai 3mo ago
Depends for what reason. I trained in Canada. Studies are triaged priority 1 through 4 in most provinces. Nowhere in Canada is a high priority MRI waiting 2 months.
28.
by haldujai 3mo ago
They are mistaken. I am a practicing radiologist in the US. We regularly work-up findings from private pay whole body screening MRIs and the workups are covered by insurance.
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by haldujai 3mo ago
It’s called evidence based medicine for a reason. Medicine has long since moved away from making decisions based on whether a person thinks it will be better. > Ultimately, it should be about personal freedom. This is not a contagious di
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by haldujai 3mo ago
1. Having concerns over unvetted AI is not the same thing as running an exclusive protectionist racket. 2. Doctors who depend on revenue from forced visits to renew prescriptions are grifters and not close to a majority. The profession obvi

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