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Both ends (takeover / collapse) are exaggerations for the benefit (attention) of the person making the claim. The US and EU/Eurozone/Western Europe are not goi

Both ends (takeover / collapse) are exaggerations for the benefit (attention) of the person making the claim. The US and EU/Eurozone/Western Europe are not going away. Their significant allies are not going away (eg Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, etc.). China isn't taking over, they're becoming (have become) a peer global power. China has accumulated vast wealth, infrastructure, manufacturing, know-how, and so on. It's not going to reverse backwards in the sense of collapse. Things aren't going back to the way they were 30-40 years ago. China is - at least for our relevant time - permanently established as a free-standing power (ie even if the West wanted to, that genie can't be put back). They will likely continue to progress, even if at a slower pace. Stagnation brought on by hyper rigid authoritarianism is most likely. At least during the Xi era. Perhaps there will be a Deng Xiaoping like loosening again afterward, who knows (maybe someone far worse will use Xi's levers of power to implement even stricter authoritarianism).

worrycue 3y ago
China is having quite a few problems on their hands though like the implosion of their real estate market that is tied to nearly everything else due its size. Their exports are down from companies decoupling somewhat with “China + 1”. In the long term, they have a bit of a population problem as their demographic dividend ends and their birth rate remains low.
- ivalm 3y ago
  These are things that can lead to stagnation, not really collapse. Even in the worst case of real estate bubble pop + massive unwind. Real estate loans and ownership are almost entirely domestic, and ccp has a lot of power to reshuffle however is advantageous to them.
  - nonethewiser 3y ago
    Real estate is largely what funds local governments. Collapse is possible.
  - peterfirefly 3y ago
    China is not good at normal taxation. Local governments mostly get their money from property "sales" (long-term leases) and loans (mostly off-books these days). China has tried to enact property taxes but the push back was so big the government backed off. It is gonna be real rough soon.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      China has an income tax and VAT, but the central government takes most of that, leaving most local governments incredibly underfunded. Property taxes could solve that, land transfer taxes can only be collected when property is built (and so they build).
      - peterfirefly 3y ago
        > China has an income tax and VAT, Both are fairly low.
jacquesm 3y ago
China could still turn into a North Korea writ larger with as extra lever the fact that they hold the keys to the manufacturing kingdom.
- ElectricalUnion 3y ago
  But then you keep adding countries to this special "sanctioned from normal economy and normal institutions" status and it will keep undermining the effect being "sanctioned from normal economy and normal institutions" are supposed to bring. So then after a while if the things keep going on North Korea stops being "that isolated contry"?

worrycue 3y ago

China is having quite a few problems on their hands though like the implosion of their real estate market that is tied to nearly everything else due its size. Their exports are down from companies decoupling somewhat with “China + 1”. In the long term, they have a bit of a population problem as their demographic dividend ends and their birth rate remains low.

ivalm 3y ago
These are things that can lead to stagnation, not really collapse. Even in the worst case of real estate bubble pop + massive unwind. Real estate loans and ownership are almost entirely domestic, and ccp has a lot of power to reshuffle however is advantageous to them.
- nonethewiser 3y ago
  Real estate is largely what funds local governments. Collapse is possible.
- peterfirefly 3y ago
  China is not good at normal taxation. Local governments mostly get their money from property "sales" (long-term leases) and loans (mostly off-books these days). China has tried to enact property taxes but the push back was so big the government backed off. It is gonna be real rough soon.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    China has an income tax and VAT, but the central government takes most of that, leaving most local governments incredibly underfunded. Property taxes could solve that, land transfer taxes can only be collected when property is built (and so they build).
    - peterfirefly 3y ago
      > China has an income tax and VAT, Both are fairly low.

jacquesm 3y ago

China could still turn into a North Korea writ larger with as extra lever the fact that they hold the keys to the manufacturing kingdom.

ElectricalUnion 3y ago
But then you keep adding countries to this special "sanctioned from normal economy and normal institutions" status and it will keep undermining the effect being "sanctioned from normal economy and normal institutions" are supposed to bring. So then after a while if the things keep going on North Korea stops being "that isolated contry"?