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Question. For 20 years I've been hearing China will takeover, and also that it is about to collapse. It seems like daily there is some story about how China wil

Question. For 20 years I've been hearing China will takeover, and also that it is about to collapse. It seems like daily there is some story about how China will collapse, and then also stories of how it will still takeover. I did read it, but not seeing what this article brings new. What is the point being made here? Except, things are bad, and nobody realizes it. The term Zombie Economy has been used for a lot of years, when will it actually manifest?

makotech221 3y ago
[dead]
SkyMarshal 3y ago
You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait.
- adaml_623 3y ago
  What about Argentina? 100% inflation!?
  - eclipticplane 3y ago
    Charts go up and to the right!
  - ajot 3y ago
    We can always get the IMF to handle us some big ol' sum of DEGs, not comply with their requisites and ask for some more. I believe we're "too big to fail" for the IMF. But less tongue in cheek, this value destruction will end someday. With every cyclic crisis, a ~10% of our population falls into poverty. Maybe the percentages will become smaller every decade, but theres a feudal 99% poverty rock bottom, you can't really go deeper than that.
  - Izikiel43 3y ago
    Over a 100%, thank you very much
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  On the other hand, recessions and even depressions are possible. Just don’t invest in Chinese real estate (not that you can without residency), and it won’t affect you.
- nonethewiser 3y ago
  > You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait. Japan’s economy arguably collapsed in the 90s. Perhaps burst and stagnated is more accurate ever but its a semantic game at that point. No one knows if China’s economy will collapse but there are lots a serious and unique risks.
  - SkyMarshal 3y ago
    And yet Japan is still there, the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world. “Collapse” = clickbait.
- nine_k 3y ago
  "Collapse" is not turning into a war-torn wasteland. I's just losing much / most of the power, and getting by in that mode somehow. Japan is a mild example, but I bet you have much fewer "Made in Japan" things in your house than you would in 1985. Argentina is a much more painful example, with no recovery in sight. Wait what's going to happen when Russia loses the war.
  - SkyMarshal 3y ago
    Japan is still the third or fourth largest economy in the world. They didn’t collapse. “Collapse” would be Great Depression, or unbailed-out Global Financial Crisis. The GFC (rightly) spooked everyone, but now we’ve got millions of wanna-be prophets in the media trying to predict the next “collapse” and take credit for being a modern day Nostradamus. But it’s all just clickbait.
  - r00fus 3y ago
    Perhaps not in the house but in your car and phone? They just transitioned industries.
adventured 3y ago
Both ends (takeover / collapse) are exaggerations for the benefit (attention) of the person making the claim. The US and EU/Eurozone/Western Europe are not going away. Their significant allies are not going away (eg Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, etc.). China isn't taking over, they're becoming (have become) a peer global power. China has accumulated vast wealth, infrastructure, manufacturing, know-how, and so on. It's not going to reverse backwards in the sense of collapse. Things aren't going back to the way they were 30-40 years ago. China is - at least for our relevant time - permanently established as a free-standing power (ie even if the West wanted to, that genie can't be put back). They will likely continue to progress, even if at a slower pace. Stagnation brought on by hyper rigid authoritarianism is most likely. At least during the Xi era. Perhaps there will be a Deng Xiaoping like loosening again afterward, who knows (maybe someone far worse will use Xi's levers of power to implement even stricter authoritarianism).
- worrycue 3y ago
  China is having quite a few problems on their hands though like the implosion of their real estate market that is tied to nearly everything else due its size. Their exports are down from companies decoupling somewhat with “China + 1”. In the long term, they have a bit of a population problem as their demographic dividend ends and their birth rate remains low.
  - ivalm 3y ago
    These are things that can lead to stagnation, not really collapse. Even in the worst case of real estate bubble pop + massive unwind. Real estate loans and ownership are almost entirely domestic, and ccp has a lot of power to reshuffle however is advantageous to them.
    - nonethewiser 3y ago
      Real estate is largely what funds local governments. Collapse is possible.
    - peterfirefly 3y ago
trailingComma 3y ago
You have been hearing predictions about what might happen to China in the future for 20 years, if the nation grows too quickly in the wrong ways and doesn't solve it's impending demographic problems. The article is saying 'China peaked in 2021 and the past two years have been a zombie economy'. It's not talking about what might happen, but about what has already happened and why the state has been hyper-focusing on security and military competition with the west for the last couple of years.
creer 3y ago
My impression has been that this looks simply like the result of an extemely rapidly changing economy and economic framework and government. The rules change frequently. In an ad-hoc manner. Even when it seems there are a lot of people working behind all these rule changes - both on the theory and the applicability. So yes of course there is a lot of waste and randomly propped up systems and temporary fixes. And then that's even if we want to argue that say US systems are really built for the long term... which is problematic also with a total willingness to change the rules from one day to the next but nowhere near to the level of China. Good luck running long term businesses (but some people seem to manage pretty well - survivor bias?) and long term personal or family investments (scary just a bit? - I mean beyond US-style investing?)
kwere 3y ago
>The term Zombie Economy has been used for a lot of years, when will it actually manifest? Around 30% of the economy is linked to real estate, seems pretty zombified. Export economy is being strangled by increased labour costs/shortages and carefully rolled sanctions. Consumption economy has difficulties to grow due to a lack of "hope in better times" from consumers. But the elephant in the room is the CCP, which is looking more concerned with "political stability" at the expense of everything else. Things are bad since Xi Jimping first years with first wave of delocalization of (textile) industries, politicization of society, political infightings that target the economy, etc...

makotech221 3y ago

[dead]

SkyMarshal 3y ago

You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait.

adaml_623 3y ago
What about Argentina? 100% inflation!?
- eclipticplane 3y ago
  Charts go up and to the right!
- ajot 3y ago
  We can always get the IMF to handle us some big ol' sum of DEGs, not comply with their requisites and ask for some more. I believe we're "too big to fail" for the IMF. But less tongue in cheek, this value destruction will end someday. With every cyclic crisis, a ~10% of our population falls into poverty. Maybe the percentages will become smaller every decade, but theres a feudal 99% poverty rock bottom, you can't really go deeper than that.
- Izikiel43 3y ago
  Over a 100%, thank you very much
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
On the other hand, recessions and even depressions are possible. Just don’t invest in Chinese real estate (not that you can without residency), and it won’t affect you.
nonethewiser 3y ago
> You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait. Japan’s economy arguably collapsed in the 90s. Perhaps burst and stagnated is more accurate ever but its a semantic game at that point. No one knows if China’s economy will collapse but there are lots a serious and unique risks.
- SkyMarshal 3y ago
  And yet Japan is still there, the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world. “Collapse” = clickbait.
nine_k 3y ago
"Collapse" is not turning into a war-torn wasteland. I's just losing much / most of the power, and getting by in that mode somehow. Japan is a mild example, but I bet you have much fewer "Made in Japan" things in your house than you would in 1985. Argentina is a much more painful example, with no recovery in sight. Wait what's going to happen when Russia loses the war.
- SkyMarshal 3y ago
  Japan is still the third or fourth largest economy in the world. They didn’t collapse. “Collapse” would be Great Depression, or unbailed-out Global Financial Crisis. The GFC (rightly) spooked everyone, but now we’ve got millions of wanna-be prophets in the media trying to predict the next “collapse” and take credit for being a modern day Nostradamus. But it’s all just clickbait.
- r00fus 3y ago
  Perhaps not in the house but in your car and phone? They just transitioned industries.

adventured 3y ago

Both ends (takeover / collapse) are exaggerations for the benefit (attention) of the person making the claim. The US and EU/Eurozone/Western Europe are not going away. Their significant allies are not going away (eg Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, etc.). China isn't taking over, they're becoming (have become) a peer global power. China has accumulated vast wealth, infrastructure, manufacturing, know-how, and so on. It's not going to reverse backwards in the sense of collapse. Things aren't going back to the way they were 30-40 years ago. China is - at least for our relevant time - permanently established as a free-standing power (ie even if the West wanted to, that genie can't be put back). They will likely continue to progress, even if at a slower pace. Stagnation brought on by hyper rigid authoritarianism is most likely. At least during the Xi era. Perhaps there will be a Deng Xiaoping like loosening again afterward, who knows (maybe someone far worse will use Xi's levers of power to implement even stricter authoritarianism).

worrycue 3y ago
China is having quite a few problems on their hands though like the implosion of their real estate market that is tied to nearly everything else due its size. Their exports are down from companies decoupling somewhat with “China + 1”. In the long term, they have a bit of a population problem as their demographic dividend ends and their birth rate remains low.
- ivalm 3y ago
  These are things that can lead to stagnation, not really collapse. Even in the worst case of real estate bubble pop + massive unwind. Real estate loans and ownership are almost entirely domestic, and ccp has a lot of power to reshuffle however is advantageous to them.
  - nonethewiser 3y ago
    Real estate is largely what funds local governments. Collapse is possible.
  - peterfirefly 3y ago

trailingComma 3y ago

You have been hearing predictions about what might happen to China in the future for 20 years, if the nation grows too quickly in the wrong ways and doesn't solve it's impending demographic problems. The article is saying 'China peaked in 2021 and the past two years have been a zombie economy'. It's not talking about what might happen, but about what has already happened and why the state has been hyper-focusing on security and military competition with the west for the last couple of years.

creer 3y ago

My impression has been that this looks simply like the result of an extemely rapidly changing economy and economic framework and government. The rules change frequently. In an ad-hoc manner. Even when it seems there are a lot of people working behind all these rule changes - both on the theory and the applicability. So yes of course there is a lot of waste and randomly propped up systems and temporary fixes. And then that's even if we want to argue that say US systems are really built for the long term... which is problematic also with a total willingness to change the rules from one day to the next but nowhere near to the level of China. Good luck running long term businesses (but some people seem to manage pretty well - survivor bias?) and long term personal or family investments (scary just a bit? - I mean beyond US-style investing?)

kwere 3y ago

>The term Zombie Economy has been used for a lot of years, when will it actually manifest? Around 30% of the economy is linked to real estate, seems pretty zombified. Export economy is being strangled by increased labour costs/shortages and carefully rolled sanctions. Consumption economy has difficulties to grow due to a lack of "hope in better times" from consumers. But the elephant in the room is the CCP, which is looking more concerned with "political stability" at the expense of everything else. Things are bad since Xi Jimping first years with first wave of delocalization of (textile) industries, politicization of society, political infightings that target the economy, etc...