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Toyota somehow develop this magical battery for an EV but forgot to develop an EV. I truly think Toyota's ignorance of EVs will end up turning them into the ne
by TheRealSteel 3y ago
Toyota somehow develop this magical battery for an EV but forgot to develop an EV.
I truly think Toyota's ignorance of EVs will end up turning them into the next Kodak or Blackberry.
They don't NEED a breakthru battery like this, the current ones work well -- I drove 1200km today in a Tesla. What they need to do is develop and sell electiric cars.
It's such a shame. Toyota had the first hybrid. And it was good -- I drove a Prius for ten years. They even made a plugin hybrid. They were the leaders. Now they seem to be last in the electric car race. Tragic.
- _hypx 3y agoBullshit. All car companies will have to abandon batteries because it is not a sustainable idea. It is Tesla and not Toyota that is facing a disruptive risk because of that.
- _hypx 3y agoTesla is shaping up to be the next Blackberry. They are stuck with just one idea: The battery powered car. An idea that predates internal combustion BTW.
- TheRealSteel 3y agoIf you think so, what's the major technology that they're ignoring that the industry is in the process of switching to?
- _hypx 3y agoIn the short-run, just more practical cars such as hybrids and plug-in cars. In the long-run, it is the inevitable plunge in cost of hydrogen, which will make fuel cell cars the cheaper type of car to own.
- fomine3 3y agoWhat's unique for Toyota is that their hybrids are sold like a pancake. Hybrids also uses batteries but it uses far less. Battery supply is the current constraint for xEV. Since they can sell many hybrids for less battery use, I understand that they don't want to "waste" batteries for BEV, but it makes bad reputation for slow BEV transition. It's the classic innovator's dilemma, but hybrids are also great vehicle for who can't afford BEV for some reason now. Still, I think they should released moderate BEV (like Nissan Aria?) in 2021, even if they ship very limited count.
- achow 3y agoYou may want to give some benefit of doubt to unarguably the most successful car company of this world. Unlike USA (and Europe?) public charging infra' is nonexistent in most part of the world. Compounded by unavailability of affordable home charging devices and easy/affordable installation logistics. Toyota perhaps does not see sense in riding the 'hype', instead continue to focus on where demand is - conventional cars. However, they seem to be investing for the future when charging infra catches up. They started on electric car tech in 1992 (way before anyone else), and continue to invest in R&D; infact had released mainstream electric vehicle - Rav4, which they discontinued in 2014 as the "charging time was slow". Toyota couldn’t convince the world it wasn’t reluctant about EVs, in part because of Toyoda’s straight-shooting, plain-spoken approach. He (new CEO Toyoda) outlined insufficient clean energy and charging infrastructure as a “limiting option” for customers. At the end of last year, Toyoda said “it takes time,” while also noting that they’d “been investing in electrification” since they “started working on hybrids, with our sights on building BEVs (battery electric vehicles). [0] [0]https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/this-is-toyotas-boldest-ev-rebranding-exercise-yet/2023/01/30/7d1af020-a063-11ed-8b47-9863fda8e494_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/this-is-toyot...
- darknavi 3y agoBtw Europed DC fast charging story is much stronger than the USA's.
- TheRealSteel 3y agoYou could say all this about Kodak in the early 2000s - they were incredibly successful, demand was still mostly for film cameras, people didn't have PC for transferring photos etc... I'm not saying it makes business sense for Toyota to drop ICE sales immediately. But their feeble, half assed EV effort is going to turn them into another Blackberry if it doesn't change quickly.
- ke88y 3y agoI don't think Toyota has lost anything. I think they understand the mid-range market better than other care makers and are executing on a strategy that pushes most people's first EV purchase out into 2030, with hybrid and plugin-hybrids dominating until then. I think that's probably the right bet. My basic thought on TSLA's long-term prospects and the EV market in general is that the legacy auto makers are patient, not sclerotic. (Also, toyota has several EVs: the Toyota-badged BZ4X, the Subaru-badged Solterra, and the Lexus-badged RZ. Branding aside, those are all Toyota EVs.)
- kjkjadksj 3y agoThe plug in hybrid is a better choice for most people honestly these days. Fiat only sold the 500e in california where every other new parking garage sees a dozen ev charging spots put in. It’s hard to imagine that being viable in other parts of this country.
- hliyan 3y ago> I drove 1200km today in a Tesla Sorry, was this in one day, with a single charge? Or over multiple days (ending today), with charges in between?
- TheRealSteel 3y agoOne day but multiple charges. Got up at 7am and got home at 1am. Port Macquarie to Melbourne. I was bringing the car home from buying it interstate. On autopilot probably 95% of the time. I charged 6 times that day, but those were around 40% to 90%, not 0 to 100. It could have been 3 charges if I risked getting closer to zero and spent more total time charging. The car mapped the charging stops out for me. Sometimes multiple supercharger stops are better as the car can charge faster when the battery is low - I.e. 30% to 40% is quicker than 90 to 100, so if they're not much out of the way it's quicker to stop for 6 quick charges than 3 slow ones.
- londons_explore 3y agoFast chargers exist. One could drive 1200 km in an EV in a day. The Cross-US race in an EV managed to average 66 mph - 80 mph average while driving, with twenty-four 18 minute charging stops. Obviously a 1200 km drive could do even better than this - since it could start the day at 100% and end at 0%, saving ~25 mins of charge time.
- venv 3y agoI mean, who drives 1200km in day anyway? But it is doable with todays EVs, many of which have ranges of around 500km or more, and only need a couple of hours of charging to drive 1200km (after starting with full capacity), during breaks you would mostly take anyways. Teslas, VW's ID.4, Hyundai's Kona electric and many more come to mind. Cheers for Toyota's research, though.
- xcskier56 3y agoIn the US, long drives aren’t crazy. This year I’ve done 4 single day drives in excess of 1400km. The furthest I’ve ever driven without stopping was 2500km, but that was with 4 drivers, and I guess a “day” isn’t quite right bc it took us like 27hrs.
- sremani 3y agoToyota is a Japanese company, a country that will burn any thing to keep lights on. So, when people question Toyota's commitment to Electric, I do not take them seriously. Toyota might have sunk-cost going with Hydrogen, but sooner or later they will build electric vehicles. My take is, the complexity of Li-based battery supply chain coupled with their views on Total Carbon Footprint of Li-based cars made them wait for better options.
- _hypx 3y agoThis is totally backwards. We will have to switch to hydrogen cars because batteries are not sustainable. It is nearly everyone else that picked wrong and will eventually have to pay the price.
- rsynnott 3y agoToyota does have a couple of electric cars; bZ* plus a Lexus.
- drewg123 3y agoThe charging performance of one of the bZ variants is so bad one could say it doesn't really do "fast" charging. See the out of spec review "The Toyota bZ4X AWD Sets A New Low Record In Our 10% EV Road Trip Challenge (US Spec / CATL Battery)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9A73U-kAO0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9A73U-kAO0
- Dalewyn 3y agoIt's commonplace for whoever gets a throne to inevitably squander it because they get complacent and proud, becoming top dog is essentially the grim reaper giving you written notice. Combined with other failures Japan is going through right now, it really is tragic how far Japan has fallen from its former glory.
- merpnderp 3y agoBuilding an electric car is far simpler than an ICE. The batteries are by far the most important part.
- MrVitaliy 3y agoNo, not really -- https://www.drive.com.au/news/volkswagen-group-cariad-executive-shake-up/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/volkswagen-group-cariad-execut...
- idiotsecant 3y agoElectric cars are significantly easier than ICEs to develop electrically and mechanically. Car companies are notoriously bad at writing software. These are orthogonal statements.
- chris11 3y agoYou can custom order electric versions of random gas vehicles. Toyota can make an EV. https://www.zelectricmotors.com/tesla-porsche https://www.zelectricmotors.com/tesla-porsche https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/ https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/
- darkclouds 3y agoBut they are a lot harder to drive, mainly because you have not got any engine noise feedback. Just like if I were to buy a Porsche with a flappy paddle gearbox, I'd ask their Sonderwunsch dept, to put a clutch peddle in, for those times I need to dip the clutch in order to gain control of the vehicle when driving on the limit because of the reasons why the 930 got its nickname the Widow Maker. At best all I could do at the moment with a flappy paddle gearbox is try to boot the gearbox into a high gear like 6 or 7 and hope it can change gear fast enough whilst hoping the engine is not too powerful to act like the handbrake has been pulled up unceremoniously when taking my foot off the accelerator. Now where in the controls do I alter the regen amount on an electric car, in order to stop it from contributing to an accident when driving on the limit? I bet its not a single action control, but something buried deep inside a menu somewhere. Of course the added weight of the batteries and thus increased weight of the vehicle, makes the experience much more like driving an electric train on the open road, stable and safe most of the time, but one hell of an accident when one does occur!
- dghughes 3y ago>Toyota somehow develop this magical battery for an EV but forgot to develop an EV. The Prius in 1997 doesn't count? Sure it was a Hybrid mainly because of no charging network. A decade before Tesla. And selling ever since. They could have a dozen models in development ready to release who knows. It's a huge company.
- TheRealSteel 3y agoNo, it doesn't count, as the Prius in 1997 was entirely powered by petrol. It was a great car. I drove a Prius for ten years and only sold it because I moved overseas. But it was no EV. Even the plugin Prius is not what we mean when we say 'EV'.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- toomuchtodo 3y agoOne trick pony. Been sitting on their hands since the hybrid synergy drive.
- bentcorner 3y ago> One trick pony. Care to explain? Because by this metric every carmaker is a one trick pony. Tesla even more so.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoTesla innovates at a rapid pace, even if judging solely on the battery architecture and cell chemistry between their platforms over the last decade. The tech in my 2021 and 2023 Ys is far superior to my earlier 2018 S and X. The jump in tech from v1 Superchargers to v4 is material. Toyota invented the hybrid drive when the US was encouraging higher fuel standards with policy (and Toyota was concerned about being left behind), and have barely put forth a half hearted effort to build EVs. Their earlier compliance car RAV4 EVs used Tesla drivetrains, for example. Meanwhile, Tesla sells almost 2 million EVs a year and continues to ramp manufacturing. Toyota manufactures press releases. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-before-the-real-history-of-the-toyota-prius/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-be... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesla-to-make-a-disappointing-electric-rav4/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesl...
- YesBox 3y agoToyota's decision is based on their calculation that there wont be enough electricity produced to meet the demands of electric cars on a large scale, IIRC.
- pfdietz 3y agoAnd so they decided to go for hydrogen? If there isn't enough electricity, that means hydrogen derived from fossil fuels. So their hydrogen take was even more evil that it first appeared.
- stubish 3y agoThis is pure spin. Toyota cannot make this claim for every region in the world where they sell cars. It is especially disingenuous when they have been pushing their hydrogen vehicles and there is not enough hydrogen production either, in any region, because it makes no sense to overproduce when there is no market.
- outside1234 3y agoYes, because the grid is static and never can be expanded.
- treeman79 3y agoIt is more likely to be contracted.
- idiotsecant 3y agoWe're adding capacity to the grid literally every day, both at the transmission and distribution level. It's not going to 'contract'
- Someone1234 3y agoThere's reason to think otherwise: Natural Gas is being replaced and is due to see price increases. It will likely be replaced by electricity (namely Heat-Pump HVAC systems, and induction cook tops). In some states some developments aren't even hooked to the gas network, and the homes standards are such that electrification is the default. You have to measure electricity demand over years, not months, because seasonal changes and or weather can really corrupt your data.
- willio58 3y agoAgreed. If they started releasing EVs en mass tomorrow they could stay relevant. If they wait another 3 years they’ll decay away
- getarofilter 3y ago[dead]
- whalabi 3y ago? They developed an entirely new platform for EVs [1] They started a subsidiary for self driving with around a thousand employees [2] They released EVs, the bZ3, the bZ4x, the Lexus RZ Current battery technology is a huge reason why people don't switch to EVs. Everyone I know talks about the charging times, needing to find a supercharger route when going long distance. A 10 minute charge on that massive range would convince me to switch easily. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_New_Global_Architecture#e-TNGA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_New_Global_Architecture... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woven_by_Toyota,_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woven_by_Toyota,_Inc.
- panick21_ 3y ago> They started a subsidiary for self driving with around a thousand employees [2] Lots of 'self driving' investments have invested a huge amount without much benefit. > They released EVs, the bZ3, the bZ4x, the Lexus RZ Their total EV sales are tiny. The bZ4x is universally mocked at one of the worst EV in class and not actually cheaper then the competition. > Current battery technology is a huge reason why people don't switch to EVs. And yet huge amounts of people are switching to EV and the actual limit is batteries supply limitations not battery size.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- KRAKRISMOTT 3y agoYou forgot their most famous joint venture clusterfuck Made in Japan. Designed by Tesla in California. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV
- propogandist 3y ago[dead]
- duped 3y agoCar manufacturers can't make enough EVs to keep up with demand, so you might not be talking to the right people.
- troyvit 3y agoWhen there's a gold rush sell shovels.
- tasubotadas 3y agoThe last time I've done calculations it was something like x2 of energy production increase is required to satisfy 100% migration to EVs. Not that big of increase.
- entropicgravity 3y agoToyota and its fellow Japanese car makers were betting the bank on hydrogen based green cars. This was wishful thinking but they had a reason. A regular ICE car produces several post sales revenue streams. For example, regular oil changes, brake replacements, engine issues and etc. EV's produce almost none of these ongoing revenue streams and therefor the ongoing value for Toyota would drop significantly. With hydrogen based car though it's an almost exact copy of the ICE car. It's got a big, hot finicky fuel cell under the hood that requires ongoing highly qualified maintenance. It would require complex 'hydrogen stations' to refuel. If there's no battery then brakes will continue to wear out on schedule. In short, everything a ICE car offers except the CO2. It's not surprising that this is the future that Toyota had its eyes on for way too long. Group think. Now they're playing catch up and they're far behind.
- _hypx 3y ago> With hydrogen based car though it's an almost exact copy of the ICE car. It's got a big, hot finicky fuel cell under the hood that requires ongoing highly qualified maintenance. That's utter bullshit. A fuel cell is literally an electrochemical system no different than a battery.
- FullyFunctional 3y agoA fuel cell is not a closed system, a battery is. A fuel cell need a supply of hydrogen (obvious) and oxygen from the air and in return it produces heat, water, and some electricity (with pretty terrible efficiency). A battery produces electricity and heat (depending on load).
- _hypx 3y agoThat's widely inaccurate. The fundamental advantage of an electrochemical system is that you are no longer limited by Carnot's theorem in the same way as heat engines. As a result, the efficiency of both systems can be the same. Not to mention you don't have to deal with all that heat either, making operation much simpler. In the end, a fuel cell is basically a metal-air battery, and has the same level of efficiency.
- TheBigSalad 3y agoI don't know anything about cars, but is an all electric really that much different from a plug in hybrid?
- jeffrallen 3y agoWell, do you know much about physics? What do you think happens to overall system efficiency if you need to carry an internal combustion engine, a gas tank, and gas along with you, in addition to a battery, inverter, and electric motor? Hybrids are strictly worse than electrics in every measure except range, and most customers do not need the range they claim to need. But salesmen are not paid commissions to explain why customers don't need things, so we have hybrids.
- VectorLock 3y ago>Hybrids are strictly worse than electrics in every measure except range, and most customers do not need the range they claim to need. Thats the benefit of a plug-in Hybrid. Most people don't need to drive much on a day to day basis and the smaller battery can handle that fine. For longer driving you have the ICE engine. The ICE engine can weigh as much or less than a comparatively "long range" battery.
- jeffrallen 3y agoBut they don't seem to be engineered that way. When my friends drive by in hybrids the engines are invariably burning gasoline. I just don't get it.
- TheBigSalad 3y agoWhat I mean is, if they've been making plug in hybrids for years, couldn't they easily make an all electric?
- ezfe 3y agoMy 2023 Corolla Hybrid is a great vehicle as someone who cannot go electric - wish they had gone further for the people who can.