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I’m glad you bring up Toyota’s production numbers because they show how absurd Tesla’s stock valuation is for this 1/5 of Toyota’s production. Tesla stock P/E
by Mistletoe 3y ago
I’m glad you bring up Toyota’s production numbers because they show how absurd Tesla’s stock valuation is for this 1/5 of Toyota’s production.
Tesla stock P/E ratio 261.
Toyota stock P/E ratio 10.6.
- NotYourLawyer 3y agoYes, share price is based on expectations rather than last year’s results.
- qaq 3y agoIf you think it's absurd you can always short it
- rootusrootus 3y agoYeah, the people who shorted TSLA in the past 18 months did pretty great. It remains a solid strategy.
- vardump 3y agoCherry picking dates can make any company look like an excellent short.
- rootusrootus 3y agoOkay. If you shorted it 24 months ago you are still ahead.
- brianwawok 3y agoNow do the math with 48 months
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoThis kind of info nugget is useful only for time travelers who can take advantage of it.
- typon 3y agoMade ~$10,000 from that bet last year. I was pretty pleased with myself.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoWould you have made more if you were still holding that short position today?
- kelnos 3y agoGood work; you successfully managed to time the market. I'm sure there were many, many others who didn't make out so well. Now redo the calculation a bunch of times to account for all the other possible times you could have both opened and closed that short position, and see how many other times you would have turned a profit. Probably not in many of them. You got lucky. Contrary to some popular belief, lucky timing is not a generally-applicable investing strategy.
- typon 3y agoTotally agreed
- medler 3y agoI think someday reality will set in and Tesla stock will plummet, but I would be crazy to short it. I guarantee Tesla fans can stay irrational way longer than I can stay solvent.
- fleshdaddy 3y agoI think regardless Tesla is positioned to have a lot of value. Granted I don’t know a whole lot about it so let me know if I’m wrong but it seems like even if their cars fizzle out eventually they are still building the majority of electric car infrastructure. If more and more companies cut deals with Tesla to use their stations they may end up being some majority of the countries “gas stations”. If I were investing in them it’d be as an energy company instead of a car company.
- sixQuarks 3y agoIt’s funny that people have been coming out of the woodwork finally, realizing Teslas worth the valuation because of the charging station partnerships they’ve done recently. Those are actually meaningless and will contribute a very very tiny percentage of profits into the future. The reason Teslas valuation is so high is because people value it as an AI company which may dominate Robo taxis and humanoid robots in the future
- fleshdaddy 3y agoWhy do you say that? It seems like it’s going to be really hard to build a network of fast charging stations for EVs and Tesla has a big head start it seems like.
- joshxyz 3y agoimagine betting against one of the smartest and one of the richest man in the world yes they make mistakes, but it has been a bloodbath out there for $TSLA shorters in the past 5 years
- sitzkrieg 3y agosmartest? id agree in darling paypal days but have you see whats going on over in tw*terland?
- joshxyz 3y agolol'd at the downvotes definitely not the smartest at the heights of marie curie nor stephem hawking but smart and rich enough to be worth more than all of us in this thread shorters are literally betting against the guy that spearheaded reusable rockets in space, i'm not saying all his decisions and perspectives are agreeable, but seriously what do you all think is your leverage against the guy?
- xbmcuser 3y agoAnother smart guy that is almost as rich is short tesla ie Bill Gates I don't know or care about who is right and who is wrong just saying your investment should not be purely based on Musk name. Personally I think Tesla might win the car race but as prices for electricity, batteries and pc chips keep going down. I am not so sure about self driving cars being worth that much as it will be race to the bottom in terms of price and cost. Cheaper electricity is coming that is the bigger change than most people realise not electric cars. So far majority of electricity has been produced using fossil fuels a finite resource where as solar is practically an infinite resource price for harvesting it as well as storing it keeps dropping.
- FireBeyond 3y ago> in darling paypal days Not even. Musk had a company which had plans for an online bank (can you imagine?) but it wasn't working out so well. So his company merged with one that was in the process of creating PayPal (trademarked, prototype in place)... Musk was the largest shareholder of the combined companies, so he was made CEO... And promptly spent four months complaining that the working prototype needed to be thrown away, because it was written in Java on Solaris, and he didn't understand it, and he wanted it rewritten in Classic ASP on Windows. Four months, because at that point, the board, lead by Peter Thiel had had enough of it and removed him as CEO. That was the extent of Musk's tenure at PayPal.
- sofixa 3y agoThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- dsugarman 3y agoToyota has 9% yoy growth, $220b of debt and a $260b market cap, tesla has >50% yoy growth, $5b of debt and a $820b market cap. Why are you focused on p/e ratio? It tells basically none of the story
- rootusrootus 3y agoLet's see Tesla's growth rate when they're closer to Toyota's size. And speaking of meaningless numbers, who cares about market cap? How does revenue compare? Toyota is about 3x, I think?
- dsugarman 3y agoMy whole point was to care about enterprise value and growth rate over market cap and p/e
- wrsh07 3y agoThey're literally responding to someone commenting about stock price Tesla sales growth currently seems limited by their ability to produce, so that's fairly bullish Market cap isn't meaningless, though. Neither is debt. Market cap should be a function of assets, so presumably if Toyota had as little debt as Tesla it would be ~480b market cap. Why is Tesla higher? It has a better story (not saying I buy it, but at least I can explain it!): Better self driving prospects (data + compute), licensing charger design, huge growth numbers
- FireBeyond 3y agoAt one point, Tesla was worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi combined. (Plus several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng). I'd love anyone to justify that with a straight face.
- YetAnotherNick 3y agoTesla is the only company significantly ahead of its competition in technical specification.
- arc4n0n 3y agowhat. No it's not. TSLA PE ratio is like 70. A long time ago I didn't buy AMZN because of it's high PE ratio. That was a mistake.
- rootusrootus 3y agoIf you believe TSLA is going to the moon, now's the time to buy! Though I don't think there are any good comparisons to be made with AMZN. Very different situation.
- arc4n0n 3y agoI don't think TSLA will go to the moon soon, the corporate strategy seems to be to attack competitors on margin and go for market share.
- MR4D 3y agoTSLA net income ~12.5 billion TM net income ~2.5 billion The relative valuation seems about right. Also, your P/E ratio for TSLA seems really high. It’s about a third of that.
- Mistletoe 3y agoYou are right, I apologize. My quick googling gave me the wrong PE for Tesla. The correct PE is about 77. I didn’t notice because during the euphoria phase it was insanely over 1000 so 261 seemed plausible. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/pe-ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/pe-rati...
- panick21_ 3y agoWell it was infinity and then it was 1000s and then 100s. And these changes happened in a few years. This is why the endless talk about PE is so incredibly dumb and misleading when elevating companies.
- tahoeskibum 3y agoHighly rated Wall St analysts were saying the same thing in 2009 comparing about Apple with Nokia.