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China solar module prices keep diving

174 points by flipbrad 3y ago

mensetmanusman 3y ago
China subsidized the worlds PV. That's great. Practically this was possible by pegging the currency which lowers the purchasing power of all their citizens.
- mullingitover 3y ago
  Whatever they're doing, it doesn't seem to be worse than the US. Chinese PPP has been growing faster[1]. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locat...
  - arcticfox 3y ago
    That could be simply a function of having a lot of room for growth. I personally think their growth is not sustainable once they achieve ~US levels of PPP per capita. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=CN-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
    - bilbo0s 3y ago
      This. It's the natural progression of anything in this universe. Even people. Your rate of physical growth between the ages of 2 and 22 was enormous. Your rate of physical growth between the ages of 22 and 42 was likely minimal. (Unless you grew, um, laterally.) A 22 year old should not be comparing himself to a 2 year old and lamenting that he can't match the 2 year old's growth rate.
    - oblio 3y ago
      It's super debatable if they can reach US levels of GDP PPP per capita. The US is at 80k, Germany is at 66k, Canada is at 60k, South Korea is at 56k, Romania is at 41k. China is at 23k. If Germany or South Korea can't reach the US, China getting there seems incredibly hard. Though if China reaches Romania's level (funny when presented this way :-) ), the nominal total GDP of China will probably be 1.5 - 2x the US one, just by virtue of them having 5x the number of people compared the US.
      - justsomehnguy 3y ago
        > Though if China reaches Romania's level Population • 2023 estimate Neutral decrease 1,411,750,000[7] Population • 2021 census Neutral decrease 19,053,815[3] I can bet my pumpkin latte what there are more people in China living better than Romanians, all Romanians.
        oblio 3y ago
        Yeah... and how does that relate to what I was saying? Even the poorest country in the world has at least a multi millionaire in dollars.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    I'd be a bit cautious about using GDP PPP in isolation. It's a good metric for a rough comparison/transformation, but has relatively weak prediction power. That said, the same holds for any economic metric used in isolation (eg. HDI, GDP, GDP Per Capita, GDP Growth Rate, GDP PPP Per Capita, Debt Rate, Median Income, etc.) All metrics need to used together to gain a holistic view on economic development. It's the equivalent of driving and only concentrating on the odometer at the expense of the fuel gauge, speedometer, and tachometer.
    - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
      what specifically are the shortcomings of using GDP PPP to measure purchasing power in this specific example? to that end, what metrics would you use instead to compare purchasing power?
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        Well, in this case we are talking about the Photovoltaic Sector within the PRC. This implies that this is a microeconomics problem, not a macroeconomic one. This means that metrics like GDP PPP, HDI, etc are completely useless when investigating a subsegment of industrial production. If I was analyzing the Photovoltaic sector, I'd probably look at 1. Current TAM, Future TAM, TAM growth rate (both past and present) 2. The price of the inputs used (wafers, polysilicon, cells, modules, labor, R&D, tariffs, subsidies) 3. The growth of comparable manufacturers globally 4. Adjacent markets/segments (if I am specialized in solar wafer manufacturing tools, can I potentially pivot into tools for IC wafer manufacturing) This is a non-comprehensive list, but in general I'm not surprised with a collapse in the price of Photovoltaic Cells. This was kind of the whole point globally of spearheading the industry - it helped build domain experience or subsidize the adjacent semiconductors sector as well as helped countries like the PRC and the US pivot away from foreign ONG dependency, and is why countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and India also invest heavily in the sector.
        ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
        in this case we are talking about the comparative purchasing power between countries, so what metric(s) would you use for that?
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    China’s PPP is weird. It isn’t apples to apples, it is Chinese living standard to American living standard. Many things in China are actually more expensive than the USA, what is cheaper is generally related to food and services, otherwise you just go with cheaper alternatives in China instead, and they are cheaper for a reason. Housing is a good example: you aren’t going to fund the same standard f housing in China for cheaper than the USA, but you can find cheaper housing (I.e. not as nice as you would rent in the states). Cars are another good example: they have cheap cars, but if you want to buy say a Camry in china, you’ll pay more than you would in the USA (and we aren’t even talking imports, they are made in Chinese factories at a lesser quality standard than the USA or Japan).
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  The WalMart market dominance model. Undercut everyone else until you eliminate the competition, then raise the price.
  - toolz 3y ago
    At least in the US market there isn't a single category of a thing in any walmart that you can only buy exclusively at walmart. If this was their strategy they would still be price cutting.
    - mywittyname 3y ago
      There are a lot of companies that produce what amounts to the "Walmart line" - basically a cheap version of their normal products. Sure, their products are sold elsewhere, but never for as cheap as Walmart. Plus, Walmart has pretty terrible payment terms. Suppliers hand over the product, and maybe Walmart pays them for it in a year. Walmart is too large to ignore, but too cut-throat to survive exclusively on. But Walmart isn't the only company like this. The entire domestic auto industry operates like this (supplier costs are known to the fraction of a cent, and manufactures know exactly what margin to give in order to keep them around, but just barely), as is Apple.
      - toolz 3y ago
        right, my point isn't that they aren't cheap or cheaper. My point is that if the strategy of price cutting until you have zero competition even works, walmart isn't employing such a tactic because everything they sell has alternatives at some other store, which means they have not price cut to the point of eliminating competition.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
      Walmart pays low wages and doesn't have high margins. How cheap are we expecting things to be?
    - esafak 3y ago
      How? There is a competitive market in China itself; more than one provider, no?
- marianatom 3y ago
  Meanwhile, China's solar industry is in rapid decline, dropping 40% in market cap y/y, due to overcapacity, falling price margins, bans on goods from China's Xinjiang region, and increased non-Chinese solar growth - US's solar industry seem to be on the rise. China's solar industry should follow similar trends as its electronics industry, with massive pullout of factories to other countries, and eventually only mostly servicing China's internal markets. Plunging Solar Stocks Fly in Face of Booming Panel Demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/solar-stocks-plunge-even-as-demand-booms-from-clean-energy-drive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/solar-sto... U.S. solar installations to fall 23% this year due to China goods ban -report https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-installations-fall-23-this-year-due-china-goods-ban-report-2022-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-installatio...
RobinL 3y ago
Not sure if it's a comparable metric, but it seems to largely follow the long term time series here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices
- dopa42365 3y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve > As the cumulative installed capacity increased, the price of solar declined exponentially. Solar technology is a prime example. For more than four decades, the price of solar panels declined by 20% with each doubling of global cumulative capacity.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
    Is that adjusted for inflation?
    - philipkglass 3y ago
      Yes, the chart says that prices are adjusted for inflation and presented in 2019 US dollars.
- tryptophan 3y ago
  Hmm interesting, suggests that solar panel prices should drop to like 8c/W by 2030. At that point they are pretty much free because the ROI will be so high.
- photochemsyn 3y ago
  Some of this is related to China's apparent mastery of monocrystalline silicon PV technology. The article and the graph don't distinguish panels by mono vs poly but for non-thin-tech panels, monocrystalline is preferable. See (2018): https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chinas-monocrystalline-boom/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chin... > "When potential expansions from other mono ingot and wafer makers are factored in, this points to a tectonic shift in the supply of monocrystalline silicon which threatens to reconfigure the entire upstream solar landscape and potentially push monocrystalline silicon solar into a dominant market position in much shorter timeframe than previously anticipated."
causality0 3y ago
Rather sad to me that none of these price drops seem to trickle down. Hurray for more solar farms but it would nice if the price of a backpack solar panel was a dollar less than it was a decade ago.
- nico_h 3y ago
  It practically did thanks to inflation.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - ZoomerCretin 3y ago
    Wages don't rise with inflation. The price of everything rising 20% doesn't affect the price of things that don't.
    - throwaway32908 3y ago
      See here or the .gov link from it if you prefer https://www.multpl.com/us-median-income/table/by-year https://www.multpl.com/us-median-income/table/by-year Regardless of whether wages match inflation completely or how long they take to do so, the fact is that if solar panels cost the same in dollars as they did 10 years ago, the average person's wage buys more of them. You could counter-argue that other things gone up by so much that despite this, people have less money to spare for solar panels. But given that solar panels are competing with some of those things, importantly fossil fuels, it's still important to be clear that they are getting cheaper - as the trend continues a solar panel pays for itself more and more quickly.
- eternityforest 3y ago
  I don't remember what the price was a decade ago, but something like a 60W folding panel these days often goes on sale for really cheap, like, under $2 a watt. The backpacks with built in panels are still expensive because I'm guessing it's hard to find customers who want to be in direct sunlight long enough to get significant charge, while carrying a backpack.
aitchnyu 3y ago
I have almost 5kw of panels and a 5kw inverter. If solar panels get cheaper than dirt, will future 5kw inverters allow 10 kw of panels, so that the power vs time graph is a wide "plateau" instead of a thin "hill"?
- andruby 3y ago
  5kW inverters already support 10kW(peak) solar panels. It’s mostly a voltage compatibility, not a max output.
- philipkglass 3y ago
  The ratio of DC panel wattage to AC inverter wattage is called the inverter loading ratio, and it has been creeping up over time in utility scale solar farms. The reasoning is indeed to give more of a plateau shape to AC output (which is limited by transmission line capacity) and to perform more steadily under hazy or partly cloudy conditions. In theory, this ratio could go up a lot if panel prices continue to decline faster than inverter prices. In practice, inverters probably also need partial redesign for a high loading ratio. Higher ILRs in large solar farms has appeared to contribute to faster inverter failures in recent years.
  - eternityforest 3y ago
    I wonder what kind of onsite loads they could have to use extra capacity? Is there any high power industrial process doesn't require too much space, setup cost, or transport infrastructure for materials in and out, and can run when there's sun available? Maybe carbon capture, if that's a thing yet?
    - laverya 3y ago
      This is the idea behind Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/ https://terraformindustries.com/ They're capturing carbon to turn into a useful product (fossil fuels) though.
      - 3y ago
yesbut 3y ago
And all of this cheap PV being produced required burning coal. We've basically outsourced this production, reduced our own coal burning, and then yell at China for increasing its carbon output.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Producing PV does not require burning coal.
  - Tade0 3y ago
    It does require energy though, and China gets a lot of it from coal. That being said panels still produce multiples of their embedded energy throughout their lifetime, so it's still worth it. It's their construction industry which is incredibly wasteful and isn't a result of outsourcing.
    - soligern 3y ago
      China is building dozens of nuclear reactors as of right now. Coal is a stepping stone.
    - throwawaymaths 3y ago
      Purchasing pvs doesnt require china. Mine come from South Korea, for example.
    - elif 3y ago
      coal is a very specific facet of the discussion where the US has targetted coal reductions, and at the same time increasing other fossil fuel based sources. Meanwhile china uses very little oil and gas for electricity production. For an example of why focusing on one segment does not give you a full picture, china is the world leader in solar, hydro, and wind energy production. they also use less fossil fuel energy per capita than the united states. for a more accurate comparison of how clean their power is compared to the united states, i would say a better metric would be that they are 26% renewable while the US is 17% renewable.
testhest 3y ago
Once the Chinese run out of money or they have killed off the last competition the price will increase again.
- andy_ppp 3y ago
  Surely we’ll just invest in factories in the Philippines or Mexico and build these things (even more) cheaply there instead? Capitalism is good at finding ways to make a return and if solar panels become profitable money will make it happen. It could turn out to be good if there was a load of unused solar capacity in China rather than the coal they are burning today…
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    At some point the modules get so cheap that transportation costs will become important. This is why we don't ship window glass great distances.
    - andy_ppp 3y ago
      Yes, I was surprised to see screws and industrial fastenings being made in the UK in what looks like really modern highly automated factories. I guess shipping them isn’t worth it.
  - xen2xen1 3y ago
    Or India. See the announcements today.
marianatom 3y ago
China's PPP should reduce in half this year. It has seen massive layoffs from every industry (average 22% decline in revenue across all industries). It has seen 50% reduction in wages, even in stable positions like government offices. It has seen unpaid wages for anywhere from a few months up to a year!! This is reinforced by 50% in price cuts in real estate listings in tier 1 cities, 10X increase in real estate inventory this year, and 90% physical retail decline China’s Latest Source of Unrest: Unpaid ‘Zero Covid’ Workers https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/asia/china-covid-protests.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/asia/china-covid-pr... China's Industrial profits in the January-March period declined 21.4% from a year earlier https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/china-s-industrial-profits-continue-to-plunge-as-prices-decline https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/china-s-i...
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Huh? Even the most bearish projections about Chinese economic growth are at about 3% per year. For PPP to actually halve you'd have to actually see a recession comparable to the Great Depression, the Peso Crisis in the 90s, or the 2015 EU+US sanctions in Russia.
  - marianatom 3y ago
    China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely higher since netizens have found that only 20% of this year's graduate has secured jobs, and 50% - 70% reduction in real estate listing prices, when real estate is 30% of China's economy and how local governments mostly gets funded, we will see retroactively that China entered its Great Depression in 2022.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      Chinese youth unemployment in 2023 is roughly comparable to the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) in the 2010s. Those countries still held around a 2-3% GDP growth rate. Also, the bearish 2-3% growth rate estimation was derived independently of the PRC government - it was reached by both Blackstone and the IMF. None of this is to say there isn't an economic malaise/recession in the PRC circa 2023, but honestly it's playing out the same way a similar growth slowdown happened in Mexico, Türkiye, South Korea, Thailand, and Brazil in the 2000s when those countries hit similar economic metrics to China in the early 2020s.
secondcoming 3y ago
My biggest use of electricity is my laptop and monitor. Any ideas on a portable solar panel that could power those during the summer? Portable because I rent and can’t fix anything down, it doesn’t have to fit in a backpack or anything like that.
- syntaxing 3y ago
  That’s…really surprising? A ceiling fan uses about 75W a hour. A MacBook Pro has a 100 Wh battery and last about 4 hours so 25W per hour. Your laptop and monitor should be lower than any other appliance. That being said, there’s a lot of options nowadays which is exciting! For instance, you could have a 200W port panel and a 1kWh battery system from eco flow that should run both with room to spare. Anker has a new system meant for patios but it’s only for Europe.
  - NotYourLawyer 3y ago
    >75W a hour Just 75W.
    - syntaxing 3y ago
      Yeah, it’s gets a bit murky to stick with power or energy even though Wh isn’t SI. But it’s usually pretty important to keep the time component when it comes to describing an energy storage system.
      - NotYourLawyer 3y ago
        75 watt-hours per hour then, if you must…
      - a_cardboard_box 3y ago
        Watts per hour are not a unit of power or energy. Watts are power. Watt hours are energy.
        3y ago
Animats 3y ago
Are those numbers inflation-adjusted? That big downward spike coincides with the US inflation spike.
- kurthr 3y ago
  The Yuan has roughly been pegged to the dollar @ ~7Y/$ for the last few years, but it rose (falling ratio) during the pandemic and it has been falling a lot (rising ratio) recently. https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rat... China PPI is in Yuan, but sales prices of panels are mostly in Dollars.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    It was under 7 for a really long time. Seeing it above 7 again actually feels weird to me, like we are back in 2007 or so.
aaron695 3y ago
[dead]
megaman821 3y ago
I am trying to figure when solar panels will have a lower LCOE than just a steam turbine alone. At that point even absolutely free fusion would have a hard time competing with solar for half the day.
- rgmerk 3y ago
  I think we’re pretty close to that point already.
- abeppu 3y ago
  I mean, all the land that will eventually be used for solar has some cost.
  - irrational 3y ago
    This past spring break we drove through a lot of the back country of Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. There is an unbelievable amount of flat desert land that would be perfect for solar. We drove at highway speeds for hours without seeing anyone or anything else.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
      ~1% of Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico could power all of the Americas. There's definitely 1% of land there that's almost desolate and lifeless.
      - hackeraccount 3y ago
        Is that the case? I've seen maps of a largely solar powered America and the amount of land used seemed much higher.
  - killingtime74 3y ago
    Many countries have otherwise uninhabitable land. You can always float them as well. Farmers are also able to dual use land for generation and growing
bluSCALE4 3y ago
I keep seeing articles like this but install prices don't go down at all. Does news like this only apply to people building PV farms?
- drcross 3y ago
  Panel cost is probably 10-20% of a total install cost. What you're paying for is labour, inverter, cabling and metal mounting equipment. Mostly labour. If you're able to self install you can shave years off ROI.
  - bluSCALE4 3y ago
    Yeah, I was looking into this. Look like I can get most of the equipment for a 18kW system for roughly 15k.
  - zbrozek 3y ago
    DIY install is great. It's really not hard and saves a huge amount of money.
  - irrational 3y ago
    Where can you purchase everything wholesale?
    - simpsond 3y ago
      I got my equipment through a local wholesaler. I built a BOM using solardesigntool and submitted through them. The wholesaler called me and accommodated me as a DIYer. CED Greentech was the company.
  - bilsbie 3y ago
    Why can’t we make those things cheaper?
    - htag 3y ago
      Labour: Having people climb around roofs is dangerous, and people with dangerous work expect higher compensation. Inverter: Cost of materials, assembly, and QA. You want good stuff for the amount of current passing through. Cabling: Cabling is mostly materials in cost. Conductive metals are expensive. Metal Mounting: It's heavy, and requires lots of raw material and expensive equipment to create it.
cmrdporcupine 3y ago
So frustrating that pro-installed solar at the consumer level around here does not seem to have dropped. If anything it's gone way up.
- sroussey 3y ago
  Labor costs dominate.
- sgerenser 3y ago
  Just got a quote last week (US east coast, mid-atlantic region) for $2.07/W DC with a 1.26 DC/AC ratio (9.6KW panels, 7.6KW string inverter). After 30% tax credit that’s $1.45/W, which might finally push me over the edge to install. My previous quote last year was about $2.36/W and in 2017 was about $2.85/W. So installed prices are definitely going down, at least in some parts of the country.
  - LUmBULtERA 3y ago
    Who was this? Do they service Northern Virginia? Thanks!
    - sgerenser 3y ago
      Local solar installer in the Raleigh, NC area: https://8msolar.com https://8msolar.com. I don't think they service anywhere outside of central NC. I was trying to be a bit generic on the region but turns out mid-atlantic (by most definitions) technically stops at Virginia, my mistake.
  - cmrdporcupine 3y ago
    I haven't gotten an official quote in a while, I should do that. But I'm in Canada (Ontario) so my situation will be quite different. I have a 50x100 shop with a metal roof I'd like to cover at least one half of, someday. So many other priorities here though :-(
- n40487171 3y ago
  Regulatory capture by electricians
kinnth 3y ago
As a homeowner in the UK (or EU) how can I benefit from these cheap prices? What steps can I take to even just buy and hold the stock?
egberts1 3y ago
Westinghouse (AC) must be rolling in their grave.
spokeonawheel 3y ago
where does one go to purchase said diving solar modules?
tibbydudeza 3y ago
Living in S.A and our decade long power crisis it is rather noticable to see solar panels now appearing on homes and office parks. I got 3.7Kw panels, 5Kw inverter and 10Kw battery - only our stove is not on the PV circuit - water heater is already solar based (not PV) and it has been brought some measure of sanity back to our lives. The worst outages was 6 hours daily. Should have done this a long time ago but it is now helped by banks tailoring financing packages for such installs.
enslavedrobot 3y ago
In Australia they deregulated the solar industry. Now you can get rooftop solar for around 44 cents a watt installed (66 cents Australian).

174 points by flipbrad 3y ago

China subsidized the worlds PV. That's great. Practically this was possible by pegging the currency which lowers the purchasing power of all their citizens.

mullingitover 3y ago
Whatever they're doing, it doesn't seem to be worse than the US. Chinese PPP has been growing faster[1]. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locat...
- arcticfox 3y ago
  That could be simply a function of having a lot of room for growth. I personally think their growth is not sustainable once they achieve ~US levels of PPP per capita. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=CN-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
  - bilbo0s 3y ago
    This. It's the natural progression of anything in this universe. Even people. Your rate of physical growth between the ages of 2 and 22 was enormous. Your rate of physical growth between the ages of 22 and 42 was likely minimal. (Unless you grew, um, laterally.) A 22 year old should not be comparing himself to a 2 year old and lamenting that he can't match the 2 year old's growth rate.
  - oblio 3y ago
    It's super debatable if they can reach US levels of GDP PPP per capita. The US is at 80k, Germany is at 66k, Canada is at 60k, South Korea is at 56k, Romania is at 41k. China is at 23k. If Germany or South Korea can't reach the US, China getting there seems incredibly hard. Though if China reaches Romania's level (funny when presented this way :-) ), the nominal total GDP of China will probably be 1.5 - 2x the US one, just by virtue of them having 5x the number of people compared the US.
    - justsomehnguy 3y ago
      > Though if China reaches Romania's level Population • 2023 estimate Neutral decrease 1,411,750,000[7] Population • 2021 census Neutral decrease 19,053,815[3] I can bet my pumpkin latte what there are more people in China living better than Romanians, all Romanians.
      - oblio 3y ago
        Yeah... and how does that relate to what I was saying? Even the poorest country in the world has at least a multi millionaire in dollars.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  I'd be a bit cautious about using GDP PPP in isolation. It's a good metric for a rough comparison/transformation, but has relatively weak prediction power. That said, the same holds for any economic metric used in isolation (eg. HDI, GDP, GDP Per Capita, GDP Growth Rate, GDP PPP Per Capita, Debt Rate, Median Income, etc.) All metrics need to used together to gain a holistic view on economic development. It's the equivalent of driving and only concentrating on the odometer at the expense of the fuel gauge, speedometer, and tachometer.
  - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
    what specifically are the shortcomings of using GDP PPP to measure purchasing power in this specific example? to that end, what metrics would you use instead to compare purchasing power?
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      Well, in this case we are talking about the Photovoltaic Sector within the PRC. This implies that this is a microeconomics problem, not a macroeconomic one. This means that metrics like GDP PPP, HDI, etc are completely useless when investigating a subsegment of industrial production. If I was analyzing the Photovoltaic sector, I'd probably look at 1. Current TAM, Future TAM, TAM growth rate (both past and present) 2. The price of the inputs used (wafers, polysilicon, cells, modules, labor, R&D, tariffs, subsidies) 3. The growth of comparable manufacturers globally 4. Adjacent markets/segments (if I am specialized in solar wafer manufacturing tools, can I potentially pivot into tools for IC wafer manufacturing) This is a non-comprehensive list, but in general I'm not surprised with a collapse in the price of Photovoltaic Cells. This was kind of the whole point globally of spearheading the industry - it helped build domain experience or subsidize the adjacent semiconductors sector as well as helped countries like the PRC and the US pivot away from foreign ONG dependency, and is why countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and India also invest heavily in the sector.
      - ImPostingOnHN 3y ago
        in this case we are talking about the comparative purchasing power between countries, so what metric(s) would you use for that?
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  China’s PPP is weird. It isn’t apples to apples, it is Chinese living standard to American living standard. Many things in China are actually more expensive than the USA, what is cheaper is generally related to food and services, otherwise you just go with cheaper alternatives in China instead, and they are cheaper for a reason. Housing is a good example: you aren’t going to fund the same standard f housing in China for cheaper than the USA, but you can find cheaper housing (I.e. not as nice as you would rent in the states). Cars are another good example: they have cheap cars, but if you want to buy say a Camry in china, you’ll pay more than you would in the USA (and we aren’t even talking imports, they are made in Chinese factories at a lesser quality standard than the USA or Japan).
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
SoftTalker 3y ago
The WalMart market dominance model. Undercut everyone else until you eliminate the competition, then raise the price.
- toolz 3y ago
  At least in the US market there isn't a single category of a thing in any walmart that you can only buy exclusively at walmart. If this was their strategy they would still be price cutting.
  - mywittyname 3y ago
    There are a lot of companies that produce what amounts to the "Walmart line" - basically a cheap version of their normal products. Sure, their products are sold elsewhere, but never for as cheap as Walmart. Plus, Walmart has pretty terrible payment terms. Suppliers hand over the product, and maybe Walmart pays them for it in a year. Walmart is too large to ignore, but too cut-throat to survive exclusively on. But Walmart isn't the only company like this. The entire domestic auto industry operates like this (supplier costs are known to the fraction of a cent, and manufactures know exactly what margin to give in order to keep them around, but just barely), as is Apple.
    - toolz 3y ago
      right, my point isn't that they aren't cheap or cheaper. My point is that if the strategy of price cutting until you have zero competition even works, walmart isn't employing such a tactic because everything they sell has alternatives at some other store, which means they have not price cut to the point of eliminating competition.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
    Walmart pays low wages and doesn't have high margins. How cheap are we expecting things to be?
  - esafak 3y ago
    How? There is a competitive market in China itself; more than one provider, no?
marianatom 3y ago
Meanwhile, China's solar industry is in rapid decline, dropping 40% in market cap y/y, due to overcapacity, falling price margins, bans on goods from China's Xinjiang region, and increased non-Chinese solar growth - US's solar industry seem to be on the rise. China's solar industry should follow similar trends as its electronics industry, with massive pullout of factories to other countries, and eventually only mostly servicing China's internal markets. Plunging Solar Stocks Fly in Face of Booming Panel Demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/solar-stocks-plunge-even-as-demand-booms-from-clean-energy-drive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/solar-sto... U.S. solar installations to fall 23% this year due to China goods ban -report https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-installations-fall-23-this-year-due-china-goods-ban-report-2022-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-installatio...

RobinL 3y ago

Not sure if it's a comparable metric, but it seems to largely follow the long term time series here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices

dopa42365 3y ago
https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve > As the cumulative installed capacity increased, the price of solar declined exponentially. Solar technology is a prime example. For more than four decades, the price of solar panels declined by 20% with each doubling of global cumulative capacity.
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  Is that adjusted for inflation?
  - philipkglass 3y ago
    Yes, the chart says that prices are adjusted for inflation and presented in 2019 US dollars.
tryptophan 3y ago
Hmm interesting, suggests that solar panel prices should drop to like 8c/W by 2030. At that point they are pretty much free because the ROI will be so high.
photochemsyn 3y ago
Some of this is related to China's apparent mastery of monocrystalline silicon PV technology. The article and the graph don't distinguish panels by mono vs poly but for non-thin-tech panels, monocrystalline is preferable. See (2018): https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chinas-monocrystalline-boom/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chin... > "When potential expansions from other mono ingot and wafer makers are factored in, this points to a tectonic shift in the supply of monocrystalline silicon which threatens to reconfigure the entire upstream solar landscape and potentially push monocrystalline silicon solar into a dominant market position in much shorter timeframe than previously anticipated."

causality0 3y ago

Rather sad to me that none of these price drops seem to trickle down. Hurray for more solar farms but it would nice if the price of a backpack solar panel was a dollar less than it was a decade ago.

nico_h 3y ago
It practically did thanks to inflation.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ZoomerCretin 3y ago
  Wages don't rise with inflation. The price of everything rising 20% doesn't affect the price of things that don't.
  - throwaway32908 3y ago
    See here or the .gov link from it if you prefer https://www.multpl.com/us-median-income/table/by-year https://www.multpl.com/us-median-income/table/by-year Regardless of whether wages match inflation completely or how long they take to do so, the fact is that if solar panels cost the same in dollars as they did 10 years ago, the average person's wage buys more of them. You could counter-argue that other things gone up by so much that despite this, people have less money to spare for solar panels. But given that solar panels are competing with some of those things, importantly fossil fuels, it's still important to be clear that they are getting cheaper - as the trend continues a solar panel pays for itself more and more quickly.
eternityforest 3y ago
I don't remember what the price was a decade ago, but something like a 60W folding panel these days often goes on sale for really cheap, like, under $2 a watt. The backpacks with built in panels are still expensive because I'm guessing it's hard to find customers who want to be in direct sunlight long enough to get significant charge, while carrying a backpack.

aitchnyu 3y ago

I have almost 5kw of panels and a 5kw inverter. If solar panels get cheaper than dirt, will future 5kw inverters allow 10 kw of panels, so that the power vs time graph is a wide "plateau" instead of a thin "hill"?

andruby 3y ago
5kW inverters already support 10kW(peak) solar panels. It’s mostly a voltage compatibility, not a max output.
philipkglass 3y ago
The ratio of DC panel wattage to AC inverter wattage is called the inverter loading ratio, and it has been creeping up over time in utility scale solar farms. The reasoning is indeed to give more of a plateau shape to AC output (which is limited by transmission line capacity) and to perform more steadily under hazy or partly cloudy conditions. In theory, this ratio could go up a lot if panel prices continue to decline faster than inverter prices. In practice, inverters probably also need partial redesign for a high loading ratio. Higher ILRs in large solar farms has appeared to contribute to faster inverter failures in recent years.
- eternityforest 3y ago
  I wonder what kind of onsite loads they could have to use extra capacity? Is there any high power industrial process doesn't require too much space, setup cost, or transport infrastructure for materials in and out, and can run when there's sun available? Maybe carbon capture, if that's a thing yet?
  - laverya 3y ago
    This is the idea behind Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/ https://terraformindustries.com/ They're capturing carbon to turn into a useful product (fossil fuels) though.
    - 3y ago

yesbut 3y ago

And all of this cheap PV being produced required burning coal. We've basically outsourced this production, reduced our own coal burning, and then yell at China for increasing its carbon output.

pfdietz 3y ago
Producing PV does not require burning coal.
- Tade0 3y ago
  It does require energy though, and China gets a lot of it from coal. That being said panels still produce multiples of their embedded energy throughout their lifetime, so it's still worth it. It's their construction industry which is incredibly wasteful and isn't a result of outsourcing.
  - soligern 3y ago
    China is building dozens of nuclear reactors as of right now. Coal is a stepping stone.
  - throwawaymaths 3y ago
    Purchasing pvs doesnt require china. Mine come from South Korea, for example.
  - elif 3y ago
    coal is a very specific facet of the discussion where the US has targetted coal reductions, and at the same time increasing other fossil fuel based sources. Meanwhile china uses very little oil and gas for electricity production. For an example of why focusing on one segment does not give you a full picture, china is the world leader in solar, hydro, and wind energy production. they also use less fossil fuel energy per capita than the united states. for a more accurate comparison of how clean their power is compared to the united states, i would say a better metric would be that they are 26% renewable while the US is 17% renewable.

testhest 3y ago

Once the Chinese run out of money or they have killed off the last competition the price will increase again.

andy_ppp 3y ago
Surely we’ll just invest in factories in the Philippines or Mexico and build these things (even more) cheaply there instead? Capitalism is good at finding ways to make a return and if solar panels become profitable money will make it happen. It could turn out to be good if there was a load of unused solar capacity in China rather than the coal they are burning today…
- pfdietz 3y ago
  At some point the modules get so cheap that transportation costs will become important. This is why we don't ship window glass great distances.
  - andy_ppp 3y ago
    Yes, I was surprised to see screws and industrial fastenings being made in the UK in what looks like really modern highly automated factories. I guess shipping them isn’t worth it.
- xen2xen1 3y ago
  Or India. See the announcements today.

marianatom 3y ago

China's PPP should reduce in half this year. It has seen massive layoffs from every industry (average 22% decline in revenue across all industries). It has seen 50% reduction in wages, even in stable positions like government offices. It has seen unpaid wages for anywhere from a few months up to a year!! This is reinforced by 50% in price cuts in real estate listings in tier 1 cities, 10X increase in real estate inventory this year, and 90% physical retail decline China’s Latest Source of Unrest: Unpaid ‘Zero Covid’ Workers https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/asia/china-covid-protests.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/asia/china-covid-pr... China's Industrial profits in the January-March period declined 21.4% from a year earlier https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/china-s-industrial-profits-continue-to-plunge-as-prices-decline https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/china-s-i...

alephnerd 3y ago
Huh? Even the most bearish projections about Chinese economic growth are at about 3% per year. For PPP to actually halve you'd have to actually see a recession comparable to the Great Depression, the Peso Crisis in the 90s, or the 2015 EU+US sanctions in Russia.
- marianatom 3y ago
  China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely higher since netizens have found that only 20% of this year's graduate has secured jobs, and 50% - 70% reduction in real estate listing prices, when real estate is 30% of China's economy and how local governments mostly gets funded, we will see retroactively that China entered its Great Depression in 2022.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Chinese youth unemployment in 2023 is roughly comparable to the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) in the 2010s. Those countries still held around a 2-3% GDP growth rate. Also, the bearish 2-3% growth rate estimation was derived independently of the PRC government - it was reached by both Blackstone and the IMF. None of this is to say there isn't an economic malaise/recession in the PRC circa 2023, but honestly it's playing out the same way a similar growth slowdown happened in Mexico, Türkiye, South Korea, Thailand, and Brazil in the 2000s when those countries hit similar economic metrics to China in the early 2020s.

secondcoming 3y ago

My biggest use of electricity is my laptop and monitor. Any ideas on a portable solar panel that could power those during the summer? Portable because I rent and can’t fix anything down, it doesn’t have to fit in a backpack or anything like that.

syntaxing 3y ago
That’s…really surprising? A ceiling fan uses about 75W a hour. A MacBook Pro has a 100 Wh battery and last about 4 hours so 25W per hour. Your laptop and monitor should be lower than any other appliance. That being said, there’s a lot of options nowadays which is exciting! For instance, you could have a 200W port panel and a 1kWh battery system from eco flow that should run both with room to spare. Anker has a new system meant for patios but it’s only for Europe.
- NotYourLawyer 3y ago
  >75W a hour Just 75W.
  - syntaxing 3y ago
    Yeah, it’s gets a bit murky to stick with power or energy even though Wh isn’t SI. But it’s usually pretty important to keep the time component when it comes to describing an energy storage system.
    - NotYourLawyer 3y ago
      75 watt-hours per hour then, if you must…
    - a_cardboard_box 3y ago
      Watts per hour are not a unit of power or energy. Watts are power. Watt hours are energy.
      - 3y ago

Animats 3y ago

Are those numbers inflation-adjusted? That big downward spike coincides with the US inflation spike.

kurthr 3y ago
The Yuan has roughly been pegged to the dollar @ ~7Y/$ for the last few years, but it rose (falling ratio) during the pandemic and it has been falling a lot (rising ratio) recently. https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rat... China PPI is in Yuan, but sales prices of panels are mostly in Dollars.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  It was under 7 for a really long time. Seeing it above 7 again actually feels weird to me, like we are back in 2007 or so.

aaron695 3y ago

[dead]

megaman821 3y ago

I am trying to figure when solar panels will have a lower LCOE than just a steam turbine alone. At that point even absolutely free fusion would have a hard time competing with solar for half the day.

rgmerk 3y ago
I think we’re pretty close to that point already.
abeppu 3y ago
I mean, all the land that will eventually be used for solar has some cost.
- irrational 3y ago
  This past spring break we drove through a lot of the back country of Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. There is an unbelievable amount of flat desert land that would be perfect for solar. We drove at highway speeds for hours without seeing anyone or anything else.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
    ~1% of Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico could power all of the Americas. There's definitely 1% of land there that's almost desolate and lifeless.
    - hackeraccount 3y ago
      Is that the case? I've seen maps of a largely solar powered America and the amount of land used seemed much higher.
- killingtime74 3y ago
  Many countries have otherwise uninhabitable land. You can always float them as well. Farmers are also able to dual use land for generation and growing

bluSCALE4 3y ago

I keep seeing articles like this but install prices don't go down at all. Does news like this only apply to people building PV farms?

drcross 3y ago
Panel cost is probably 10-20% of a total install cost. What you're paying for is labour, inverter, cabling and metal mounting equipment. Mostly labour. If you're able to self install you can shave years off ROI.
- bluSCALE4 3y ago
  Yeah, I was looking into this. Look like I can get most of the equipment for a 18kW system for roughly 15k.
- zbrozek 3y ago
  DIY install is great. It's really not hard and saves a huge amount of money.
- irrational 3y ago
  Where can you purchase everything wholesale?
  - simpsond 3y ago
    I got my equipment through a local wholesaler. I built a BOM using solardesigntool and submitted through them. The wholesaler called me and accommodated me as a DIYer. CED Greentech was the company.
- bilsbie 3y ago
  Why can’t we make those things cheaper?
  - htag 3y ago
    Labour: Having people climb around roofs is dangerous, and people with dangerous work expect higher compensation. Inverter: Cost of materials, assembly, and QA. You want good stuff for the amount of current passing through. Cabling: Cabling is mostly materials in cost. Conductive metals are expensive. Metal Mounting: It's heavy, and requires lots of raw material and expensive equipment to create it.

cmrdporcupine 3y ago

So frustrating that pro-installed solar at the consumer level around here does not seem to have dropped. If anything it's gone way up.

sroussey 3y ago
Labor costs dominate.
sgerenser 3y ago
Just got a quote last week (US east coast, mid-atlantic region) for $2.07/W DC with a 1.26 DC/AC ratio (9.6KW panels, 7.6KW string inverter). After 30% tax credit that’s $1.45/W, which might finally push me over the edge to install. My previous quote last year was about $2.36/W and in 2017 was about $2.85/W. So installed prices are definitely going down, at least in some parts of the country.
- LUmBULtERA 3y ago
  Who was this? Do they service Northern Virginia? Thanks!
  - sgerenser 3y ago
    Local solar installer in the Raleigh, NC area: https://8msolar.com https://8msolar.com. I don't think they service anywhere outside of central NC. I was trying to be a bit generic on the region but turns out mid-atlantic (by most definitions) technically stops at Virginia, my mistake.
- cmrdporcupine 3y ago
  I haven't gotten an official quote in a while, I should do that. But I'm in Canada (Ontario) so my situation will be quite different. I have a 50x100 shop with a metal roof I'd like to cover at least one half of, someday. So many other priorities here though :-(
n40487171 3y ago
Regulatory capture by electricians

kinnth 3y ago

As a homeowner in the UK (or EU) how can I benefit from these cheap prices? What steps can I take to even just buy and hold the stock?

egberts1 3y ago

Westinghouse (AC) must be rolling in their grave.

spokeonawheel 3y ago

where does one go to purchase said diving solar modules?

tibbydudeza 3y ago

Living in S.A and our decade long power crisis it is rather noticable to see solar panels now appearing on homes and office parks. I got 3.7Kw panels, 5Kw inverter and 10Kw battery - only our stove is not on the PV circuit - water heater is already solar based (not PV) and it has been brought some measure of sanity back to our lives. The worst outages was 6 hours daily. Should have done this a long time ago but it is now helped by banks tailoring financing packages for such installs.

enslavedrobot 3y ago

In Australia they deregulated the solar industry. Now you can get rooftop solar for around 44 cents a watt installed (66 cents Australian).