7 ms·

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Americans (the item), then the big payday for Mr.Musk, that's what happened with Mr. Ford back in the day, but what did the guy know? Nowadays you can just bluff your way into riches using the marvelous phenomenon of cult of personality and stock appreciation. > > It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off? Want to see a sample of what Microsoft's ChatGPT can do?? It's amazing! But that has nothing to do with Microsoft giving Apple a run for its money in the smartphone market like Ballmer predicted back in 2012 There is no correlation between the 2 things just like there is no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, and it's laughable that synchopants think they are correlated just because thought leader and cult of personality enthusiast Elon Musk is both the founder of SpaceX and the petty individual who sued for the right to be called the founder of Tesla
- austhrow743 3y ago
  Elon is paid in stock not cash.
  - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
    that he regularly sells.
    - philippejara 3y ago
      And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.
      - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
        Point is that you first sign off the effing self-driving car, then you get your effing money. That is what we used to do in America, since the days of JD Rockefeller, Henry Ford...but also Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Larry Ellison. I mean I used Windows before Gates became richest man in the world and so did hundreds of millions of people. Musk got to #1 by selling go karts to a handful of rich people and promises of future selfdriving and total domination of the EV sector when EVs are not even sure to be the winner tech in the decarbonization of cars The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. You seem to condone the poker game that Wall St. has become, I don't agree with that because entrepreneurship shouldn't be about bluffing and then offloading your hand to a bigger fool. We do that in Vegas, like men where at least you have to look in the eyes the dude you are screwing over.
        dmix 3y ago
        How do you expect self driving cars, or any extremely hard technology, to come about then without long term risk capital via public/private investment? Just pure R&D working out of universities and gov labs? Let them perfect it and only then try to raise capital? Go back to the Rockefeller days before there was venture capital and mature public markets?
        TylerE 3y ago
        > The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. Not so sure about that. Model 3s seem to rapidly replacing Civics as the Uber car of choice.
        3y ago
- TheCaptain4815 3y ago
  My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. You seem to have a more personal vendetta against him, I’m just looking at his insane success and envying hype/ management style
  - notmypenguin 3y ago
    Easy there, cowboy, he’s had incredible success whipping his fans into frothing frenzies of self congratulatory adulation that would make a seesaw get dizzy. No other boss person since the mighty Steve has had this effect on the mass psyche, and Elon has arguably done a lot less. I claim teslas success is in spite of him, not because of him. Facts matter, and the SEC case was where I first realized his lack of leadership skill, and boasting about tanking his own stock price was not impressive. He’s not impressive, rather dull and low imagination if you ask me, which you didn’t, as you were busy falling over yourself to worship Elon Musk, who sounds like a cheap cologne
    - ironSkillet 3y ago
      ...this...has to be a troll right? The guy helped bring space flight out of a stagnant era into commercial viability and put electric cars into the world's popular psyche.
  - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
    > My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. His biggest success is the rocket industry. Let's examine top competitors - corrupt ULA which flies rockets on 50 year old engines and does cost+ contracts, his other competitor was Russia, a corrupt kleptocracy that stopped innovating when USSR fell apart. Russia would sell engines physically made in USSR to ULA. This market literally had no competition and no innovation for like 40 years. So yes, his great achievement is that he could march finance into an industry that no-one would consider for investment. But results in other industries were not so great. Tesla had a head start on electric, but they could not take advantage of this. Once other manufacturers woke up to the threat, it became clear Tesla has nothing on them, and car industry is fiercely competitive. His leadership was not good enough to take advantage of the head start he had and extremely high level of finance that he had. Where is cybertruck? Other automakers are already selling electric trucks. VW and even Chinese automakers are eating Tesla's lunch. Elon's boring company is an abject failure, as is hyperloop.
- gumby 3y ago
  > …while all the synchopants keep ranting… We definitely now live in a world that needs this word. I am now adopting it myself. Thanks!
- Prickle 3y ago
  > no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, This is actually false. Automation of vehicle controls has a surprisingly large overlap between air/space and land. The main difference is the amount of traffic and lack of vibration dampening.
- tsuujin 3y ago
  Do you mean “sycophants” or is “synchopants” a new word I’m not trendy enough to know yet?
swader999 3y ago
"It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?" Can they even build a strong enough launch pad to handle starship?
- DennisP 3y ago
  Probably. https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-test https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-...
  - swader999 3y ago
    That is awesome!
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
SecretDreams 3y ago
If his dream involves people dying using FSD along the way, it's a nightmare.
pnt12 3y ago
> that anyone realized Not to be pedantic, but lots of people "realized" (or predicted) this, myself included. He promised something, charged for it, and had little to show for. To me that's a big mistake, not little "ooopsie shit happens". And it's not clear this will be fixed 10 years from now. Experimental research often fails in some stage between research and production.
Nextgrid 3y ago
Rocketry and self-driving are completely different domains of difficulty. Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge, refining it and increasing efficiency, but the basics have been figured out and proven since we've launched the first satellites in orbit. SpaceX is successfully doing this. Unsupervised self-driving in an unconstrained environment is a completely different game. The reason humans can drive is that they have millions of years of evolution in both low-level image processing, reasoning, etc, diverse knowledge of the world that an individual obtains during the course of their life which can be blended in various ways to make driving-related decisions, as well as a sense of self-preservation that generally forces them to err on the side of caution. Short of a major AGI breakthrough, safe self-driving on existing road infrastructure is impossible.
- 4gotunameagain 3y ago
  > Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge This is not true. The only thing that enabled the reusability of SpaceX rockets was the convexification of the soft landing problem, a novelty by Lars Blackmore. Sure, you could argue the the model predictive control scaffolding was pre-existing, but so was linear algebra for self driving.
- sidcool 3y ago
  Countries have failed at rocketry. It's not a solved problem.

JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago

> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Americans (the item), then the big payday for Mr.Musk, that's what happened with Mr. Ford back in the day, but what did the guy know? Nowadays you can just bluff your way into riches using the marvelous phenomenon of cult of personality and stock appreciation. > > It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off? Want to see a sample of what Microsoft's ChatGPT can do?? It's amazing! But that has nothing to do with Microsoft giving Apple a run for its money in the smartphone market like Ballmer predicted back in 2012 There is no correlation between the 2 things just like there is no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, and it's laughable that synchopants think they are correlated just because thought leader and cult of personality enthusiast Elon Musk is both the founder of SpaceX and the petty individual who sued for the right to be called the founder of Tesla

austhrow743 3y ago
Elon is paid in stock not cash.
- JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
  that he regularly sells.
  - philippejara 3y ago
    And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.
    - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
      Point is that you first sign off the effing self-driving car, then you get your effing money. That is what we used to do in America, since the days of JD Rockefeller, Henry Ford...but also Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Larry Ellison. I mean I used Windows before Gates became richest man in the world and so did hundreds of millions of people. Musk got to #1 by selling go karts to a handful of rich people and promises of future selfdriving and total domination of the EV sector when EVs are not even sure to be the winner tech in the decarbonization of cars The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. You seem to condone the poker game that Wall St. has become, I don't agree with that because entrepreneurship shouldn't be about bluffing and then offloading your hand to a bigger fool. We do that in Vegas, like men where at least you have to look in the eyes the dude you are screwing over.
      - dmix 3y ago
        How do you expect self driving cars, or any extremely hard technology, to come about then without long term risk capital via public/private investment? Just pure R&D working out of universities and gov labs? Let them perfect it and only then try to raise capital? Go back to the Rockefeller days before there was venture capital and mature public markets?
      - TylerE 3y ago
        > The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. Not so sure about that. Model 3s seem to rapidly replacing Civics as the Uber car of choice.
      - 3y ago
TheCaptain4815 3y ago
My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. You seem to have a more personal vendetta against him, I’m just looking at his insane success and envying hype/ management style
- notmypenguin 3y ago
  Easy there, cowboy, he’s had incredible success whipping his fans into frothing frenzies of self congratulatory adulation that would make a seesaw get dizzy. No other boss person since the mighty Steve has had this effect on the mass psyche, and Elon has arguably done a lot less. I claim teslas success is in spite of him, not because of him. Facts matter, and the SEC case was where I first realized his lack of leadership skill, and boasting about tanking his own stock price was not impressive. He’s not impressive, rather dull and low imagination if you ask me, which you didn’t, as you were busy falling over yourself to worship Elon Musk, who sounds like a cheap cologne
  - ironSkillet 3y ago
    ...this...has to be a troll right? The guy helped bring space flight out of a stagnant era into commercial viability and put electric cars into the world's popular psyche.
- ClumsyPilot 3y ago
  > My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. His biggest success is the rocket industry. Let's examine top competitors - corrupt ULA which flies rockets on 50 year old engines and does cost+ contracts, his other competitor was Russia, a corrupt kleptocracy that stopped innovating when USSR fell apart. Russia would sell engines physically made in USSR to ULA. This market literally had no competition and no innovation for like 40 years. So yes, his great achievement is that he could march finance into an industry that no-one would consider for investment. But results in other industries were not so great. Tesla had a head start on electric, but they could not take advantage of this. Once other manufacturers woke up to the threat, it became clear Tesla has nothing on them, and car industry is fiercely competitive. His leadership was not good enough to take advantage of the head start he had and extremely high level of finance that he had. Where is cybertruck? Other automakers are already selling electric trucks. VW and even Chinese automakers are eating Tesla's lunch. Elon's boring company is an abject failure, as is hyperloop.
gumby 3y ago
> …while all the synchopants keep ranting… We definitely now live in a world that needs this word. I am now adopting it myself. Thanks!
Prickle 3y ago
> no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, This is actually false. Automation of vehicle controls has a surprisingly large overlap between air/space and land. The main difference is the amount of traffic and lack of vibration dampening.
tsuujin 3y ago
Do you mean “sycophants” or is “synchopants” a new word I’m not trendy enough to know yet?

swader999 3y ago

"It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?" Can they even build a strong enough launch pad to handle starship?

DennisP 3y ago
Probably. https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-test https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-...
- swader999 3y ago
  That is awesome!

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

SecretDreams 3y ago

If his dream involves people dying using FSD along the way, it's a nightmare.

pnt12 3y ago

> that anyone realized Not to be pedantic, but lots of people "realized" (or predicted) this, myself included. He promised something, charged for it, and had little to show for. To me that's a big mistake, not little "ooopsie shit happens". And it's not clear this will be fixed 10 years from now. Experimental research often fails in some stage between research and production.

Nextgrid 3y ago

Rocketry and self-driving are completely different domains of difficulty. Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge, refining it and increasing efficiency, but the basics have been figured out and proven since we've launched the first satellites in orbit. SpaceX is successfully doing this. Unsupervised self-driving in an unconstrained environment is a completely different game. The reason humans can drive is that they have millions of years of evolution in both low-level image processing, reasoning, etc, diverse knowledge of the world that an individual obtains during the course of their life which can be blended in various ways to make driving-related decisions, as well as a sense of self-preservation that generally forces them to err on the side of caution. Short of a major AGI breakthrough, safe self-driving on existing road infrastructure is impossible.

4gotunameagain 3y ago
> Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge This is not true. The only thing that enabled the reusability of SpaceX rockets was the convexification of the soft landing problem, a novelty by Lars Blackmore. Sure, you could argue the the model predictive control scaffolding was pre-existing, but so was linear algebra for self driving.
sidcool 3y ago
Countries have failed at rocketry. It's not a solved problem.