7 ms·

Elon doesn't actually believe that Tesla cars are about to quintuple in value now, any more than he did 7+ years ago when he first started saying it; that's jus

by rurp 3y ago

Elon doesn't actually believe that Tesla cars are about to quintuple in value now, any more than he did 7+ years ago when he first started saying it; that's just marketing BS. > So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation. Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right.

TheCaptain4815 3y ago
And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?
- JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
  > > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Americans (the item), then the big payday for Mr.Musk, that's what happened with Mr. Ford back in the day, but what did the guy know? Nowadays you can just bluff your way into riches using the marvelous phenomenon of cult of personality and stock appreciation. > > It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off? Want to see a sample of what Microsoft's ChatGPT can do?? It's amazing! But that has nothing to do with Microsoft giving Apple a run for its money in the smartphone market like Ballmer predicted back in 2012 There is no correlation between the 2 things just like there is no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, and it's laughable that synchopants think they are correlated just because thought leader and cult of personality enthusiast Elon Musk is both the founder of SpaceX and the petty individual who sued for the right to be called the founder of Tesla
  - austhrow743 3y ago
    Elon is paid in stock not cash.
    - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
      that he regularly sells.
      - philippejara 3y ago
        And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.
        JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
        Point is that you first sign off the effing self-driving car, then you get your effing money. That is what we used to do in America, since the days of JD Rockefeller, Henry Ford...but also Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Larry Ellison. I mean I used Windows before Gates became richest man in the world and so did hundreds of millions of people. Musk got to #1 by selling go karts to a handful of rich people and promises of future selfdriving and total domination of the EV sector when EVs are not even sure to be the winner tech in the decarbonization of cars The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. You seem to condone the poker game that Wall St. has become, I don't agree with that because entrepreneurship shouldn't be about bluffing and then offloading your hand to a bigger fool. We do that in Vegas, like men where at least you have to look in the eyes the dude you are screwing over.
        dmix 3y ago
        How do you expect self driving cars, or any extremely hard technology, to come about then without long term risk capital via public/private investment? Just pure R&D working out of universities and gov labs? Let them perfect it and only then try to raise capital? Go back to the Rockefeller days before there was venture capital and mature public markets?
- swader999 3y ago
  "It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?" Can they even build a strong enough launch pad to handle starship?
  - DennisP 3y ago
    Probably. https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-test https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-...
    - swader999 3y ago
      That is awesome!
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- SecretDreams 3y ago
  If his dream involves people dying using FSD along the way, it's a nightmare.
- pnt12 3y ago
  > that anyone realized Not to be pedantic, but lots of people "realized" (or predicted) this, myself included. He promised something, charged for it, and had little to show for. To me that's a big mistake, not little "ooopsie shit happens". And it's not clear this will be fixed 10 years from now. Experimental research often fails in some stage between research and production.
- Nextgrid 3y ago
  Rocketry and self-driving are completely different domains of difficulty. Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge, refining it and increasing efficiency, but the basics have been figured out and proven since we've launched the first satellites in orbit. SpaceX is successfully doing this. Unsupervised self-driving in an unconstrained environment is a completely different game. The reason humans can drive is that they have millions of years of evolution in both low-level image processing, reasoning, etc, diverse knowledge of the world that an individual obtains during the course of their life which can be blended in various ways to make driving-related decisions, as well as a sense of self-preservation that generally forces them to err on the side of caution. Short of a major AGI breakthrough, safe self-driving on existing road infrastructure is impossible.
  - 4gotunameagain 3y ago
    > Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge This is not true. The only thing that enabled the reusability of SpaceX rockets was the convexification of the soft landing problem, a novelty by Lars Blackmore. Sure, you could argue the the model predictive control scaffolding was pre-existing, but so was linear algebra for self driving.
  - sidcool 3y ago
    Countries have failed at rocketry. It's not a solved problem.
throwawayadvsec 3y ago
Personally I believe it, I'm not sure about the year, but someone is going to make a fully autonomous car in the next few years. If you look at just CLIP, Dino, GPT-4, given the current pace of progress, it's pretty obvious that it's going to happen.
- polishdude20 3y ago
  So it happens, then people realize they can earn money with it, then tesla realizes they can sell it now for 4 times more. In the end, you're not going to earn 4 times more because Tesla or whoever makes the car will take that into account and skim off that top.
  - fennecfoxy 3y ago
    As with everything, competitors will prevent a single offering from being priced too high. I personally don't think Tesla will ever develop the FSD architecture that ends up used by everyone else. Whilst I agree with Elon that _technically_ FSD could be done only with cameras, because that's how humans do it, humans only drive "fine" and not "perfectly". We need cameras, LIDAR and whatever other sensors we can fuse in. The software that runs the thing will not be developed by a car company, because car companies (yes, even Tesla) are absolute dogshit at software. All of them. Every single one. They can't even make a proper entertainment system that isn't laggy, let alone all of the legwork & research required to piece together enough models in the right way for FSD that meets the lofty standards of the public (ie a perfect 0 fatalities, vs angry evolution-driven hormonal monkeys in multi-tonne hunks of steel powered by explosions whose fatality count grows every day at 3700 deaths/day, 8th leading cause of death globally).
brewtide 3y ago
>Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right. Unrelated but GameStop should combine combine games plus what RadioShack used to be for 'us', for modern times / tech / electronics
andsoitis 3y ago
> Buying a popular meme stock I don’t know that I would connote “meme stock” and “Tesla”
93po 3y ago
> Elon doesn't actually believe What's your evidence of this?

by rurp 3y ago

TheCaptain4815 3y ago

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Americans (the item), then the big payday for Mr.Musk, that's what happened with Mr. Ford back in the day, but what did the guy know? Nowadays you can just bluff your way into riches using the marvelous phenomenon of cult of personality and stock appreciation. > > It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off? Want to see a sample of what Microsoft's ChatGPT can do?? It's amazing! But that has nothing to do with Microsoft giving Apple a run for its money in the smartphone market like Ballmer predicted back in 2012 There is no correlation between the 2 things just like there is no correlation between rockets and self driving cars, and it's laughable that synchopants think they are correlated just because thought leader and cult of personality enthusiast Elon Musk is both the founder of SpaceX and the petty individual who sued for the right to be called the founder of Tesla
- austhrow743 3y ago
  Elon is paid in stock not cash.
  - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
    that he regularly sells.
    - philippejara 3y ago
      And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.
      - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
        Point is that you first sign off the effing self-driving car, then you get your effing money. That is what we used to do in America, since the days of JD Rockefeller, Henry Ford...but also Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Larry Ellison. I mean I used Windows before Gates became richest man in the world and so did hundreds of millions of people. Musk got to #1 by selling go karts to a handful of rich people and promises of future selfdriving and total domination of the EV sector when EVs are not even sure to be the winner tech in the decarbonization of cars The vast majority of Americans have never even set foot in a Tesla. You seem to condone the poker game that Wall St. has become, I don't agree with that because entrepreneurship shouldn't be about bluffing and then offloading your hand to a bigger fool. We do that in Vegas, like men where at least you have to look in the eyes the dude you are screwing over.
        dmix 3y ago
        How do you expect self driving cars, or any extremely hard technology, to come about then without long term risk capital via public/private investment? Just pure R&D working out of universities and gov labs? Let them perfect it and only then try to raise capital? Go back to the Rockefeller days before there was venture capital and mature public markets?
swader999 3y ago
"It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?" Can they even build a strong enough launch pad to handle starship?
- DennisP 3y ago
  Probably. https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-test https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/raptor-steel-...
  - swader999 3y ago
    That is awesome!
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
SecretDreams 3y ago
If his dream involves people dying using FSD along the way, it's a nightmare.
pnt12 3y ago
> that anyone realized Not to be pedantic, but lots of people "realized" (or predicted) this, myself included. He promised something, charged for it, and had little to show for. To me that's a big mistake, not little "ooopsie shit happens". And it's not clear this will be fixed 10 years from now. Experimental research often fails in some stage between research and production.
Nextgrid 3y ago
Rocketry and self-driving are completely different domains of difficulty. Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge, refining it and increasing efficiency, but the basics have been figured out and proven since we've launched the first satellites in orbit. SpaceX is successfully doing this. Unsupervised self-driving in an unconstrained environment is a completely different game. The reason humans can drive is that they have millions of years of evolution in both low-level image processing, reasoning, etc, diverse knowledge of the world that an individual obtains during the course of their life which can be blended in various ways to make driving-related decisions, as well as a sense of self-preservation that generally forces them to err on the side of caution. Short of a major AGI breakthrough, safe self-driving on existing road infrastructure is impossible.
- 4gotunameagain 3y ago
  > Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge This is not true. The only thing that enabled the reusability of SpaceX rockets was the convexification of the soft landing problem, a novelty by Lars Blackmore. Sure, you could argue the the model predictive control scaffolding was pre-existing, but so was linear algebra for self driving.
- sidcool 3y ago
  Countries have failed at rocketry. It's not a solved problem.

throwawayadvsec 3y ago

Personally I believe it, I'm not sure about the year, but someone is going to make a fully autonomous car in the next few years. If you look at just CLIP, Dino, GPT-4, given the current pace of progress, it's pretty obvious that it's going to happen.

polishdude20 3y ago
So it happens, then people realize they can earn money with it, then tesla realizes they can sell it now for 4 times more. In the end, you're not going to earn 4 times more because Tesla or whoever makes the car will take that into account and skim off that top.
- fennecfoxy 3y ago
  As with everything, competitors will prevent a single offering from being priced too high. I personally don't think Tesla will ever develop the FSD architecture that ends up used by everyone else. Whilst I agree with Elon that _technically_ FSD could be done only with cameras, because that's how humans do it, humans only drive "fine" and not "perfectly". We need cameras, LIDAR and whatever other sensors we can fuse in. The software that runs the thing will not be developed by a car company, because car companies (yes, even Tesla) are absolute dogshit at software. All of them. Every single one. They can't even make a proper entertainment system that isn't laggy, let alone all of the legwork & research required to piece together enough models in the right way for FSD that meets the lofty standards of the public (ie a perfect 0 fatalities, vs angry evolution-driven hormonal monkeys in multi-tonne hunks of steel powered by explosions whose fatality count grows every day at 3700 deaths/day, 8th leading cause of death globally).

brewtide 3y ago

>Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right. Unrelated but GameStop should combine combine games plus what RadioShack used to be for 'us', for modern times / tech / electronics

andsoitis 3y ago

> Buying a popular meme stock I don’t know that I would connote “meme stock” and “Tesla”

93po 3y ago

> Elon doesn't actually believe What's your evidence of this?