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Japan's population may drop by almost one-third by 2070
- leidenfrost 3y agoThere's a lot of working, intelligent people who would happily emigrate to Japan if: - They weren't somewhat hostile to immigration - Their working culture wasn't borderline slavery
- hammyhavoc 3y agoWho's "they"? Slavery means people are not remunerated and have no personal freedom. Japanese are definitely remunerated and definitely have personal freedom. "お疲れ様でした" (otsukaresamadeshita) = "Thank you for your hard work". Japan takes great pride in work. Just because you don't understand the culture doesn't give you the right to call it slavery. If you want to invoke a discussion on slavery in East Asia, do it in the right context. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelinaochab/2020/04/04/the-fate-of-uighur-muslims-in-china-from-re-education-camps-to-forced-labor/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelinaochab/2020/04/04/the-fat...
- eulgro 3y agoThe Japanese
- hammyhavoc 3y agoFuck me. That's a horrible broad stroke.
- pessimizer 3y agoThat Japanese work culture is exploitative? You might as well say it's a broad stroke to say Americans like hamburgers.
- nashashmi 3y agoWe will have to accept a newer modern form of slavery. Where workers must work. And their options to move to a different job are little to none. It is what is binding women to work in Japan because living cost is high.
- hammyhavoc 3y agoWhere's the difference to the USA or UK with people taking second and third jobs just to make ends meet due to the cost of living? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
- nashashmi 3y agoIt's the holy grail of capitalistic and socialistic work cultures.
- tokai 3y agoborderline slavery =/= slavery There is absolutely nothing controversial about stating that work conditions in Japan are appalling. Calm down.
- newmanships 3y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
- leidenfrost 3y agoI don't see the need to bring China to the conversation. If your entire waking hours have to be dedicated to working, what's the point of having a wage at all? I already know that Japanese culture takes great pride in work. I wasn't being literal with the word "slavery" (that's why I added "borderline" next to it). That pride doesn't make the day magically last longer than 24 hours. Being passionate with your work is great and all. But time is finite, and life passes by. If I'm left with no time to cultivate any hobbies or even spend quality time with my family and/or friends, then I don't see the point at all.
- hammyhavoc 3y agoThe need is because your comment diminishes actual modern slaving in East Asia and is an incredibly disrespectful stereotype of a "salaryman". Is American "crunch culture" any better? Does that crunch culture in America represent America as a whole? "The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development does annual research into the amount of work done by the average citizen in a given country over the course of the year. According to these statistics, these countries rank higher than Japan in terms of average working time in a year: Mexico, South Korea, Greece, Chile, Russia, Poland, Latvia, Israel, Iceland, Ireland, Estonia, Portugal, and the United States. Even New Zealand ranks higher than Japan on documented hours worked."
- steveoscaro 3y agoThe savior mentality is strong here
- Lagavulin1816 3y agoWhataboutism at it's finest. Instead of trying to engage with the original commentee you try to steer the discussion towards "hey, but what about these places". Of course the working hours of the average American "paycheck-to-paycheck-working-three-jobs citizen" are insane but that is a direct consequence of hyper-capitalism. It is a matter of fact that the working conditions of the average salaryman are not well suited towards building families. There are more than enough statistics to support this fact, however, you need to be careful about the target demographics of the workers. Additionally, the social and cultural pressure to spend time with your coworkers and your boss after work means further time spent away from your (possible) family. I don't really understand why it is so difficult for you to accept the fact that Japanese working culture is not suitable for the 21st century. Automation and effiency is increasing accross nearly all white-collar industries and Japanese traditions still see it fit to mandate "arrive before your boss, leave after (sic!) him".
- yangikan 3y agoNot slavery, but https://www.kalzumeus.com/2014/11/07/doing-business-in-japan/ https://www.kalzumeus.com/2014/11/07/doing-business-in-japan...
- zztop44 3y agoI think language is a much bigger barrier than any purported hostility to immigration. Japanese visa laws are actually relatively open.
- stainablesteel 3y agoimmigration is a bandaid, not a solution, to population collapse i honestly don't want to see countries import large swaths of people who don't agree with their culture and values the way europe has, its sad to see it happen the americas are much better at handling immigration, but eurasian countries should probably not try to copy it too hard. a better solution is to fix the culture and encourage women to have children
- mytailorisrich 3y agoThis is a tough one to adapt to, and I think important aspects will be to boost productivity of working-age people as much as possible and to go all in on automation. But on the other hand this is the best thing that can happen for long term sustainability and against the environment and climate crises.
- outlace 3y agoDoes sustainability or climate change matter if humanity goes extinct?
- osobo 3y agoHow does a population drop equal extinction?
- chaostheory 3y agoI think they’re implying the opposite. The world would be destroyed if the total population continues to grow. As of right now, we would need 5 Earths to sustain everyone’s current lifestyle, keeping in mind that more than half the world lives in poverty.
- xnx 3y agoIndividually, we all go extinct.
- delecti 3y agoJapan could lose 90% of its population and still have more people just in Japan than existed worldwide ~10,000 years ago. I don't know what the "ideal" number of humans is, but I know we could survive just fine with quite a bit fewer than 8 billion.
- Msw242 3y agoHow many rockets were they launching 10k years ago? More people is more good
- RugnirViking 3y agoJapan has the second oldest population in the world, averaging at 48. I was surprised to learn europe's average is 44 while both china and the US average 38 years old. If I had been asked to guess I would have assumed china averaged much younger than US, and US and europe would be closer
- mytailorisrich 3y agoYoung population means high birthrate/population growth and/or low life expectancy. Neither is the case for China. Young populations are in Africa mostly.
- ad404b8a372f2b9 3y agoI was astounded to learn that in Afghanistan about half the population is under 15.
- mytailorisrich 3y agoiirc, Afghanistan is currently the country with the world's fastest population growth. Google says that population went from 19.7 million in 2001 (to take a significant date...) to 40.1 million in 2021. So +20 million/doubled in 20 years, which is crazy.
- pessimizer 3y agoChina carefully controlled population growth for a lot of years. The result was very asymmetrical due to misogyny, but there was surely some addition to Chinese quality of life over the long term.
- qwytw 3y ago>surely some addition Disputable. And they'll have severe problems because of it in the upcoming decades.
- 3y ago
- mattigames 3y agoThe world should follow suit, 8 billions people it's just a ridiculous amount of people given the fast-paced damage we are doing such as climate change and many others born from consumerism and mindless growth.
- rippercushions 3y agoThe world is following suit, and quite rapidly at that: China, Korea, virtually all of Europe, the US (excluding immigration), etc. Even parts of southern India are now below replacement level.
- modo_mario 3y agoThe world population is still going up steadily and will continue to do so for a good while led by Africa no? I think Africa's population growth is predicted to plateau around 2100
- rippercushions 3y agoYup, it's by no means equally distributed, but fertility is dropping fast in Africa too.
- jemmyw 3y agoI think it'll plateau well before that though because they'll see so much pressure on food and water resources. Africa doesn't feed itself now and if the rest of the world needs to direct more food production locally due to lower yield caused by climate change then Africa is positioned to suffer the most.
- qwytw 3y agoBut yields continue increasing at a relatively fast pace overal?
- ido 3y agoIt's projected to peak at a bit over 10B before the end of the century and then steadily decline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#/media/File:World_Population_Prospects.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... (see solid red median line).
- o_m 3y agoWouldn't a shrinking population make housing more affordable, which makes it easier to start a family
- Invictus0 3y agoYes, there are many Japanese properties that can be purchased for a song. Many of these homes are located in rural areas though and may need extensive renovations or repairs.
- pjc50 3y agoBy that metric so do Europe and the US. It's "property near where the decent jobs and society are" that's expensive.
- dagw 3y agoI watched a program about a couple that bought a "1€" house in Italy. Long story short, by the time the house was in a liveable state they'd spent around 100k, and the village they were living in had virtually nothing to offer in the way of shops or services and everything was a 45 minute drive away. They eventually put the house on the marker for less than they'd spent on it.
- zztop44 3y agoOutside of central Tokyo housing is already quite affordable.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoOk but a third of the population lives in tokyo and that number is only going up
- pnw 3y agoJapan already has a lot of semi-abandoned older properties that you can buy comparatively cheaply but the cost of bringing them up to modern standards is prohibitive due to regulation as I understand it. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/realestate/japan-empty-houses.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/realestate/japan-empty-ho...
- tnel77 3y ago[flagged]
- lnsru 3y agoJapan is not alone. Whole western world will shrink signify in this century. There is only single family with 2 kids in 9 houses in close neighborhood. In other 8 houses live retirees between 70 and 90 years old. That’s west Germany close to Munich. Other places do not really look younger. I am really very curious which country will emerge in 2084. It will not be an European one for sure. Edit: Many people don’t like the truth. Please take your time and look at UN demographic forecast: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.deve...
- mytailorisrich 3y ago> It will not be an European one for sure. No-one forces Europe to allow such high immigration...
- epolanski 3y agoActually immigration is what is saving our economy and why we're not struggling yet at a social/financial level with the whole retirees issue like Japan is.
- mytailorisrich 3y agoNo, it's not. Immigration is 'easy' as it avoids making the changes to adapt to stagnant/decreasing population, but those changes will have to made one day because population cannot keep growing indefinitely, so it's just kicking the can down the road. On the other hand, high immigration creates many social issues. Frankly the debate has been poisoned by ideology and political agendas to the point people actually believe that there is no choice. But, really it has not been going well at all for the social and cultural fabric of European countries and just stating that means risking being labelled whatever nasty term you can think of.
- epolanski 3y agoI think it is you stating ideologically poisoned opinions. Regular (even ignoring irregular) immigration contributes for 10% of the GDP in Italy alone. All stats clearly show how regular (and even irregular) immigration is a high benefit to European countries. I'm Italian and I can guarantee you that many sectors of our economy would be dead without immigrants, especially our precious food industry. Immigrants pay taxes here, produce goods here, consume here, but they get little out of it as they are neither schooled nor retire here. See, e.g. key findings here: https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/library-document/projecting-net-fiscal-impact-immigration-eu_en https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/library-document/pr... The other part of your comment is similarly loaded. Yes, it happens that immigration may lead to social tensions. That's very true. But the experience differs wildly and real stats have to be taken into account. E.g. In Germany crime is at all times low after having taken more than 2 million refugees and regular/irregular immigrants in a decade. They have been absolutely core to German growth and I am hardly pressed to state that taking so many immigrants has been anything but a net positive.
- mymythisisthis 3y agoThe unintended consequences of WWII are mind boggling. 78 years latter we are still seeing the social consequences playing out in demographics. A big Baby Boom, followed by a bust. Economists don't look at demographic models enough.
- pjc50 3y agoDon't forget that WW2 itself killed well over 50 million people, between direct casualties, civilians, the Holocaust and other genocides and war crimes, and starvation.
- tomger 3y agoAre there different solutions to pension planning other than controlling the birth rate or reducing pension sizes?
- curiouscats 3y agoA higher savings rate directed toward retirement-savings/pension and increasing immigration are two.
- Ekaros 3y agoThe nastiest one is to reduce period it is paid... Probably not something that is going to happen with current cohort.
- Qem 3y agoRaise the overall productivity of working-age people, and ensure these productivity gains help finance pensions, instead of getting stuck in billionaires accounts in some tax evasion heaven.
- m4jor 3y agoAnother L https://www.npr.org/2023/04/25/1171924186/contact-is-lost-with-a-japanese-spacecraft-attempting-to-land-on-the-moon https://www.npr.org/2023/04/25/1171924186/contact-is-lost-wi...
- npalli 3y agoAs bad as the drop might be the population is still reasonably big. The worse part is how the demographic pyramid is predicted to look like, mostly older folks with a small consuming portion. https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2073/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2073/ Having said that 2070 is so far out, projecting current trends and sensibilities (say towards immigration or family planning) might not be the best way to understand where Japan lands in 2070.
- chaostheory 3y agoOther countries have been dealing with Japan’s problem for decades now. Their population projections have been pretty accurate. They’ve been able to stave off the impending disaster facing Japan through immigration
- mc32 3y agoBut would Japan be Japan when Japanese culture is replaced by an admixture of foreign cultures? People are attracted to Japan because of the uniqueness of their culture --like Tibet. One of the arguments against the annexation of Tibet by China is that it would dilute Tibetan culture and be replaced by Han culture, else that argument is moot and Tibetans are better off with the lesser dictatorship of the CCP over the theocracy of a Dalai Lama. One of the disgraceful things when traveling abroad is the "ghettoes" where all you see are foreign retirees, ex-pats and other "nomads" where local culture is replaced and a new culture emerges to cater to this new influx in order to extract commercial benefit. So the Spanish Riviera, Thai beaches, Dubai, (also in FL who cater to Spring Break, for example It's the cultural equivalent to the Strip Mall. In the US and Canada lots of towns have the similar feel because they have the common thread of national and regional chains which mimic national chains. This is something most people lament --but this is what would happen to Japan if they allowed mass migration so supplement their own population targets. It would be a country like many others with nothing distinguishing it apart.
- tomrod 3y ago> But would Japan be Japan when Japanese culture is replaced by an admixture of foreign cultures? Is Japan of 1950 also Japan of 2050? Its a sort of ship-of-Theseus issue, but when we recognize that cultures evolve, grow, mix, adapt, and continually become something wonderful, it's less of a concern in my mind. > Tibetans are better off with the lesser dictatorship of the CCP over the theocracy of a Dalai Lama. Oof, I doubt this is anywhere close to true given the treatment of minority groups under CCP policy. Sovereignty, forcibly taken, is rarely an improvement and is detrimental both to the people whose sovereignty was taken and to the people who took the sovereignty. Much better to engage in economic trade and diplomacy.
- pjc50 3y agoJapan will be fine. Russia, not so much. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-populati...
- postsantum 3y ago[flagged]
- brink 3y agoRather than just slandering it, can you please offer points on why it's inaccurate?
- postsantum 3y agoYou mean except the clickbait in the title? 1) War propaganda numbers about both losses and those who fled the country. These numbers are published by Ukraine and uncritically relayed by western media (with a tiny disclaimer "we are not able to independently verify this data"). Many neutral parties (Mossad, etc) have published drastically different numbers 2) Emotional takes (can't resist that sweet Hitler invocation, understandable). Not an inaccuracy per se but still wouldn't expect that from a supposedly reputable newspaper behind a paywall 3) Easily verifiable lies (male life expectancy compared to Haiti's)
- phillipp_8734 3y ago[flagged]
- xiphias2 3y agoIt may be not as bad as it sounds if we see the advances in age reversal happening. The next 50 years will be nothing like the last 50 years, and the last 50 years were full of changes.
- jyscao 3y agoThat's a big if. IMO anti-aging could be similar to self-driving, i.e. harder than it seems.
- rtkwe 3y agoWorse, it's biology so we have to actually work with the messy wet lab system that makes up our bodies instead of a human built system we can at least nominally control and design. At least traffic has a design and intent so we're not fully wedded to whatever worked for a bacterial half a billion years ago with big dreams and a fancy new mutation.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- pjc50 3y agoI'm terrified of the consequences of anti-aging in societies that are already gerontocracies. Do you really want 150-year-old Supreme Court judges? Besides which, anti-aging really will kill any political desire to increase birth rates.
- xiphias2 3y agoIf it would mean saving my mom and getting her healthy again, or me getting healthy again (even though I'm not that old), then yes, I can deal with 150 year old supreme court judges. Dictators with nukes are much more scary to me
- mensetmanusman 3y agoDon’t forget that they have one of the highest fertility rates in Asia.
- stainablesteel 3y agoour entire culture revolves around pushing women into the workforce instead of encouraging them to have children its nice to have more people participating in the economy but why should their most fertile years be spent getting bureaucratic requirements just so they can struggle to find a job that gives them maternity leave? if that's what they want that's one thing, but they aren't really offered any other choice i want a serious quality of life study on women who chose to have kids at 20 vs having no kids at 30, we're doing things wrong and its only going to be a more painful realization because population collapse is exponential, not linear
- ninkendo 3y ago> if that's what they want that's one thing, but they aren't really offered any other choice I was with you until here… how is it they are not given a choice? If a woman wants to have children instead of entering the workforce, what exactly is stopping her from doing that?
- pjc50 3y agoOne of those pays you money and the other one doesn't.
- tivert 3y ago> I was with you until here… how is it they are not given a choice? If a woman wants to have children instead of entering the workforce, what exactly is stopping her from doing that? Economics. If all the other women are part of two-income households, they will inflate the cost of certain essential goods (like housing) out of reach from a single-income family. Ultimately, the shift to dual incomes will probably pay out as well as deciding to eat your seed corn instead of planting--a wonderful time of plenty followed by starvation and collapse. Of course, there's a ready made solution to the problem of eating your seed corn that everyone should be happy with: dump your starved, dead body on the street and have someone else move into your home.
- stainablesteel 3y agoyou have to be able to afford to have a kid plus you might need time and a place to find a decent husband none if this simple imo, it would take either a loan or a subsidy, or someone whose family structure is fine with them living with their parents
- majikaja 3y agoIt's ok, the least productive sections of society will face the greatest declines.
- tinus_hn 3y agoI don’t quite see the problem with this. Japan requires innovative solutions because they don’t have space for all their people. In the future they’ll have less people.
- midoridensha 3y agoThere's plenty of space here for people. There isn't enough space for everyone to live like in American suburbs though.
- stillbourne 3y agoI have yet to hear a cogent answer as to why this is a problem. I see so many alarmist articles that talk about this being the lead up to some sort of financial armageddon but are short on why or how. Can anyone please explain that to me?