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What this reinforces is that unlike with previous big innovations (cloud, iphone, etc), incumbents will not sit on their laurels with the AI wave. They are aggr
by dopeboy 4y ago
What this reinforces is that unlike with previous big innovations (cloud, iphone, etc), incumbents will not sit on their laurels with the AI wave. They are aggressively integrating it into their products which (1) provides a relatively cheap step function upgrade and (2) keeps the barrier high for startups to use AI as their wedge.
I attribute the speed at which incumbents are integrating AI into their products to a couple things:
* Whereas AI was a hand-wavey marketing term in the past, it's now the real deal and provides actual value to the end user.
* The technology and DX with integrating w/products from OpenAPI, SD, is good.
* AI and LLMs are capturing a lot of attention right now (as seen easily by how often they pop up on HN these days). It's in the zeigeist so you get a marketing boost for free.
- wongarsu 4y agoAnother point is that many of the incumbents have seen the trend for far longer than the general public, and had time to gather inhouse talent. For example this isn't Adobe's first stint into generative AI, back in 2016 they announced (and quietly dropped after the backlash) Adobe VoCo, "photoshop for voice".
- dopeboy 4y agoThis is a great point. It appears the success of OpenAPI has validated their approach, specifically around (1) using the web as a training set and (2) using transformers. I imagine a lot conversations with in-house AI folks is around deploying these methods.
- MarcoZavala 4y ago[dead]
- Pxtl 4y agoRight? Adobe was first to market with properly integrated AI-based photo editing features with stuff like Content Aware Fill back in 2015 iirc.
- nvr219 4y ago> * Whereas AI was a hand-wavey marketing term in the past, it's now the real deal and provides actual value to the end user. Ehhh.... Sometimes. It's still a hand-wavey marketing term today. Almost every sales call I'm in either the prospect is asking about AI, or more likely the vendor is saying something like "We use our AI module to help you [do some function not at all related to AI]". Also, even when it's "real" AI (in the sense that we're talking about here), it's not always providing actual value to the end user. Sometimes it is, and sometimes it isn't.
- aardvarkr 4y agoLike a toothbrush with “AI” that tells you when you’ve brushed enough
- jstummbillig 4y agoYes, not everything AI is working out – never has, and never will. The same is true in any field. And yes, there will be a display of incompetence, delusion and outright fraud. Again, in any field, always. However, with AI in general, we have very decidedly passed the point where it Works (image generation probably being the most obvious example of it) Even if, starting now, the underlying technology did not improve in the slightest, while adoption rises as it is going to with any new technology that provides value, anyone who does not adopt is going to be increasingly uncompetitive. It quite simply is too good already, to not to be used to challenge what a lot of average humans are paid to do in these fields.
- hn_throwaway_99 4y agoI think you're missing a fundamental reason: adding AI functionality into products is simply easier. That is, these companies are largely not doing the hard part, which is creating and training these models in the first place. The examples you gave of of cloud and iPhone have both huge capital barriers to entry, and in iPhones case other phone companies just didn't have the unique design talent combination of Jobs and Ive.
- Vt71fcAqt7 4y agoAdobe in particular, however, has been more twords the forefront of AI research. I'm pretty sure they aren't just using SD here. They might not even be using transformers at all. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35089661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35089661
- capableweb 4y agoThey also have the resources to build a huge training set, together with people who willingly upload their art and photos to them, which they can use to make the training set better than publicly available data.
- lelandfe 4y agoOne step further, they already have a huge training set. Stock libraries have the luxury of the hard part already being done: labeling. As of today, that's >313M labeled images they can use with no fear of legal woes: https://stock.adobe.com/search/images?filters%5Bcontent_type%3Aphoto%5D=1&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Aillustration%5D=1&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Azip_vector%5D=1&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Avideo%5D=0&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Atemplate%5D=0&filters%5Bcontent_type%3A3d%5D=0&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Aaudio%5D=0&filters%5Binclude_stock_enterprise%5D=0&filters%5Bis_editorial%5D=0&filters%5Bfree_collection%5D=0&filters%5Bcontent_type%3Aimage%5D=1&order=relevance&safe_search=1&search_type=remove-breadcrumb&search_page=1&get_facets=0 https://stock.adobe.com/search/images?filters%5Bcontent_type... Stable Diffusion was trained on billions of images, of course. But having explored some of LAION-2B, it's clear that Adobe Stock has far better source images and labels.
- bredren 4y agoI attribute it more to open source and free plugins into existing Adobe products like Photoshop. People are already using these plugins to do inpainting etc with Stable Diffusion. Adobe is trying to provide official support simply to keep up. To me, the most novel thing is the data source being free of licensing concerns. But that, too, will be eroded as more models appear based on datasets with straightforward licensing for derived works. Image stock collections (and prior deals around them) seem more valuable now than they did before all this.
- criddell 4y ago> I attribute the speed at which incumbents are integrating AI into their products to a couple things And also it's something many companies have been working on for a big part of the last decade. Kevin Kelly in particular has been talking about it for at least the past 7 years. In 2016 he released a book titled "The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future" and the addition of AI to everything is covered in that book.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago> * Whereas AI was a hand-wavey marketing term in the past, it's now the real deal and provides actual value to the end user. The skeptic in me thinks it's more: * The market is rewarding companies for doing X (integrating AI), so companies are doing X (integrating AI). Song as old as time.
- luke_cq 4y agoI think what we're going to see is that all the small startups going for big, broad ideas ("we do AI writing for anything", "your one-stop marketing content automation platform", etc) are going to flat out lose to the big companies. I predict that the startups we'll see survive are the ones that find tight niches and solve for prompt engineering and UX around a very specific problem.
- DantesKite 4y ago> It's in the zeigeist so you get a marketing boost for free. I never thought about it that way, but now that you mention it, it makes so much sense.
- adam_arthur 4y agoCreating AI models has proven to simply be easier than other past innovations. Much lower barrier to entry, the knowledge seems to be spread pervasively within months of breakthroughs. People seem to take offense at this idea, but the proof is in the pudding. Every week there's a new company with a new model coming out. What good did Google's "AI Talent" do for them when OpenAI leapfrogged them with only a few hundred people? It's difficult to achieve high margins when barrier to entry is low. These AI companies are going to be moreso deflationary for society rather than high margin cash cows as the SaaS wave was
- ftufek 4y agoIt's easier for large rich companies with infrastructure and datasets. It's very hard for small startups to build useful real world models from scratch, so you see most people building on top of SD and APIs, but that limits what you can build, for example it's very hard to build realistic photo editing on top of stable diffusion.
- unreal37 4y agoSomeone was able to replicate GPT 3.5 with $500. The training of models is getting very cheap. [1] https://newatlas.com/technology/stanford-alpaca-cheap-gpt/ https://newatlas.com/technology/stanford-alpaca-cheap-gpt/
- ftufek 4y agoI've tried it, sure it's good, but not even close to the real thing. But yes it's getting cheaper through better hardware, better data and better architectures. Also it builds on Facebook's models that were trained for months on thousands of A100 GPUs.
- lern_too_spel 4y agoBy fine-tuning a leaked model trained with a lot more money than that. If somebody leaks the GPT 3.5 model, can I say that I replicated it for $0?
- 4y ago
- balls187 4y agoIt's important to note that this is generative AI. As pretty much everyone on HN is aware, AI is a broad term for a variety of technologies. AI has been in our everyday lives for quite some time, but not in a way that generated (no pun intended) such buzz. Having my iphone scan emails and pre-populate my calendar with invite suggestions is far less newsworthy as the ability to generate a script for an Avengers film where all the members are as in articulate as the Incredible Hulk. If anything, with generative AI being so buzzy, this latest round of AI integration is more marketing.
- cmorgan31 4y agoI can’t think of a company more suited to take advantage of the generative AI hype. If firefly is built into the adobe stack you’ll have a rather elegant composition and refinement toolkit to modify anything you dislike about the generative output.
- wouldbecouldbe 4y agoExcept for Chat GPT I havent yet seen super impressive implementations. Dall-e, codepilots, text to speech etc. are still all not good enough to use for more then playing around. However this landingpage looks amazing. Any good other tips?
- danielbln 4y agoMidjourney v5 might be ready for prime time, in most cases it seems to have solved faces, hands, etc. The difference between version 1 from exactly one year ago and v5 now is rather striking: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c16244d-2201-452e-b13d-a6aae88d5567_2048x1024.png https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_...
- ShamelessC 4y agoThis is effectively DALLE-2 (apparently retrained on different data) with a native frontend designed by experienced designers. You don't see the value in effectively not needing any art/design skills to make aesthetically pleasing logos/mockups/memes? Even just for "playing around" - I bet there's a large market of people who want to add "fun edits" to their existing personal photo library. Focus less on landing pages and more on the implications a technology brings. Then you'll see where things are headed.
- wouldbecouldbe 4y agoI've tried to use DALL-E for practical purposes such as generating icons, art etc. for commercial products but most of it is unusable.
- Auracle 4y agoDall-e is far behind Midjourney and Stable Diffusion. As we speak I’m generating images of my dog as every Pokémon type (for fun) that are frankly quite a bit better than the art of most Pokémon cards. I’ve also used it for a photo composite: https://youtu.be/c_1mRWthhek https://youtu.be/c_1mRWthhek
- nonethewiser 4y agoLet’s just take this moment to declare that AI did not turn out to be the next 3D hype. That’s something I almost forgot about. This was not a forgone conclusion - there was a pretty big divide between people who thought AI would have real value and staying power and those that didnt.
- tialaramex 4y ago> unlike with previous big innovations (cloud, iphone, etc), incumbents will not sit on their laurels with the AI wave Adobe had a whole bunch of smart people including Dave Abrahams helping transition to iPhone and iPad, and to build for the cloud, so I'm not sure what you're thinking here.
- FooBarWidget 4y agoStartups? Cloud and mobile were not spearheaded by startups but by megacorporations.
- random_cynic 4y ago> They are aggressively integrating it into their products And no reason to suspect that it won't spectacularly backfire. Not that they're integrating (or more correctly slapping it on with some hot glue) transformative technology they barely understand into legacy products which are themselves likely to go defunct. Why even use a spreadsheet when you can get GPT-4 to write a whole data analysis pipeline and summarize everything? Or why bother with word documents when GPT-4 can generate, spell/grammar check, translate (if necessary), format and output into any format you want?
- fardo 4y agoFrom a practical perspective, because of inertia and all managers seemingly being "burned once, twice shy" on re-designs. If my company already uses spreadsheets and teams of people skilled at manipulating them, it might not be very hard to convince my manager that good AI use cases (quick formatting, intelligent auto-completes, intention detection from sheet structure) could probably speed us up by 20% - but convincing management of the value of a full system re-design by comparison would likely be a very tough sell, if not viewed as an insult or sign that I'm not a team player. Just because the future may prove these methods antiquated doesn't mean management is liable or likely to change their tune today.
- random_cynic 4y ago> good AI use cases (quick formatting, intelligent auto-completes, intention detection from sheet structure) could probably speed us up by 20% That would imply these AI systems have been integrated well, which in most cases are not and I suspect the amount of work it would take to do it properly would not pay off considering the limited window available before people transition to a fully chat based system. > but convincing management of the value of a full system re-design by comparison would likely be a very tough sell In this case it would be convincing the management to transition to a system where you can just order around and someone/something would get the job done, which is well in their comfort zone (I'm only half joking).
- jasfi 4y agoExactly this. This makes will eventually make it difficult for new AI startups, once those existing solutions get technically up to speed, if they can't differentiate in a meaningful way. My own startup is https://inventai.xyz https://inventai.xyz. Subscriptions aren't ready, so you can't actually generate anything yet, just trying to move quickly.
- louison11 4y ago> “incumbents will not sit on their laurels with the AI wave.” Yes, because they are already technology companies who understand tech. In the disruptive times of the Internet, then iPhone (mobile Internet), the companies being disrupted were not tech companies, so they didn’t know how to catch up. This time this is a massive tech improvement, but in a market already saturated by key tech power players who are in prime position to implement these improvements into their existing competitive advantage.
- ChildOfChaos 4y agoI think the other thing driving this is the market / investors. Companies have to get involved in this field because it's all the buzz, while everything else you said is true, this means companies have no choice to get involved. If someone like Adobe, google etc, doesn't get into the game, they are sure going to be a lot of questions on there next investment / financial calls. The incumbents need to keep up appearances and not look like they are behind / unaware of AI, else investors will be worried that they will simply be sidelined/replaced at some point in the future.
- thih9 4y ago> unlike with previous big innovations (cloud, iphone, etc), incumbents will not sit on their laurels with the AI wave Wasn’t “cloud” also added to major products? Even Adobe relies on that heavily. Similarly, most big companies (including Adobe) offer an App Store app.
- 8note 4y agoIphone? Didn't the incumbents come together for Android as a group?