7 ms·

I do not believe russians will want or need to get into space until 2050, because the economy of this country is screwed and electronics tech-stack is dependent

I do not believe russians will want or need to get into space until 2050, because the economy of this country is screwed and electronics tech-stack is dependent on global market to deliver required chips... Needless to say the window of opportunity to receive the electronic components is closing. They can't run a space program on gray market deliveries.

chii 4y ago
They can run one where china supplies the required components.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  I doubt China will pay Russia for the space program as the US did.
- vincnetas 4y ago
  Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics : On October 7, the Biden administration unveiled a sweeping set of export controls that ban Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. The rule also restricts the ability of “US persons” — including American citizens or green card holders — to provide support for the “development or production” of chips at certain manufacturing facilities in China.
  - trogdor 4y ago
    Doesn’t China create advanced electronics?
    - yabones 4y ago
      Mostly assembly with some fabrication. Most semiconductor manufacturing is in Korea and Taiwan, with assembly in China, India, Malaysia, etc. The majority of the design work happens outside of China as well.
    - nyokodo 4y ago
      > Doesn’t China create advanced electronics? It creates advanced electronics in the sense that it assembles them. It does not manufacture advanced or even mid-grade chips though which is the crucial point. That’s all Taiwan, Korea, Japan, USA.
      - spacebanana7 4y ago
        Advanced stuff isn't necessary for space, most rockets/aerospace worked fine with 1960s tech. Obviously nicer chips can be useful, but it's not like TSMC/Samsung are necessary conditions for getting to the moon or making an ICBM.
        convolvatron 4y ago
        Rad hardened chips use really large node sizes
      - kube-system 4y ago
        I’m not sure that 7nm is not good enough to be called “mid-grade”, but SMIC definitely has the capability of manufacturing chips good enough to get to space.
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        SMIC makes 7nm chips, which is considered high-end. It's not the highest of the high end, but it's not far from that, and it's definitely considered high-end.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics : In the short term, I'm sure China will be able to get whatever chips it needs (for military applications, at least) that are available on the civilian market, they'll just have to setup front companies, etc. In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much.
    - chii 4y ago
      > In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much. which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. The cost of the export ban is a drop in business value for all the companies being banned (and without compensation by the US gov't afaict). The ban isn't really going to prevent china from getting close-to-cutting-edge chips for military applications either. So the ban, and the associated costs, is for what exactly?!
      - tablespoon 4y ago
        > which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are delaying tactics, they'll make things harder but not impossible for Russia and China to do certain things, and they might have to make unwanted compromises (e.g. force short-term supply chain issues and redesigning using a less robust common civilian grade chip they can get on the grey market rather than the harder-to-get specialized chip they want). Basically, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
        chii 4y ago
        > don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. this assumes that the "good" is enough, given just a bit more time. My concern is that a delaying tactic is insufficient. The bans will force the domestic production, for real this time, in these technologies. After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not really be able to convince businesses to take the hit and pay high capital cost to produce a worse version just as a stepping stone. The investment capital is likely to be wasteful, or misspent - since the "fallback" of western products are available (until they go to war like russia, and the cut off is abrupt and sudden). A pro-longed ban, like what we see today, without the actual war to trigger it, is likely to give the domestic production the reason it needs to actually get their act together. There's no western "fallback" to make them complacent. So either they fail miserably, or succeed and wipe the west's technological advantage. The "good idea", might not be so good if that were to actually happen.
nradov 4y ago
Many years ago they ran a successful space program with no chips at all.
- tokai 4y ago
  No they didn't. The Soviet Union did.
  - Etheryte 4y ago
    This is an important distinction. The majority of the aerospace know-how in the Soviet Union came from Ukraine, not from Russia.
    - selivanovp 4y ago
      What you’re missing is that factories were built in Ukraine as a part of reconstruction after WW2, but engineers were mostly Russian, relocated from Russia. These days pretty much all Ukrainian space industry is dead, and it was dead even before war. Most competent people left for Russia or USA. Yes, they still provided some components just because it was cheaper to build them in the original factory, but in a last few years Russia just replaced all Ukraine components. Antares had Ukrainian fuel tanks I believe, but I doubt it’ll last long.
      - Etheryte 4y ago
        Regarding engineers, I don't think that's true at all — as a simple example, two of the three lead engineers on the Soviet space program were from Ukraine.
  - WeylandYutani 4y ago
    And the USSR actually traded with the West. Made tons of money selling oil, gas and grain. Putin's actions are devoid of economic logic.
    - Retric 4y ago
saiya-jin 4y ago
I don't think you understand russian mentality. If it will be the only option, they will run their space program, however gutted and affected, from grey market. The war will only strengthen this mentality and approach. Just don't expect thats the same grey market that we individuals are exposed to, currently places like Turkey, Georgia, Belarus and plenty of *stan countries are happily providing all the banned wares. Its not like they need to buy enriched plutonium (of which they have plenty), rather just chips and few things around. Or they go completely China way, they can pay in raw materials like platinum, oil, gold, diamonds etc.
- batter 4y ago
  To run space programs they'll need money. Even with resources they have running both war and space programs will lead to catastrophic consequences. But I suspect that's exactly the way they'll choose.
  - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
    For the time being, the West has been supplying Putin's troops with plenty of money (taxes from selling natural resources go into the federal budget, which is used to fund the military, and therefore the war). They made record profits last year. https://svtv.org/gas-for-putin-war/ https://svtv.org/gas-for-putin-war/
    - inglor_cz 4y ago
      IDK about gas, but the price cap on Russian oil is lower than what Russians need to break even. They are now losing money on each exported barrel, but IIRC they can't just stop the production; the wells would become unusable. Of course, the price cap is only in force since December 2022, so the effects haven't fully shown themselves yet.
      - SXX 4y ago
        Where do you get that information about profitability? According to BBC [0] back in 2019 expenses per barrel was $25 before taxes. Obviously sanctions make everything more expensive (hardware, extraction, transport, insurance), but not that expensive. If selling oil was unprofitable Putun would just burn it instead of selling it at loss just like they burned natural gas for $10,000,000 / day for months. [0] https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/news-50392407?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/news-50392407?_x_...
johnwalkr 4y ago
Many aerospace engineers have left Russia in the last year, too.
- SXX 4y ago
  Yes, but it's unlikely they will continue their work outside of Russia and many people can very well be bought back. Western countries don't really help talent with Russian passports to leave the country and since space industry is very close to military it's only make it harder to get EU / US visas. Source: I have a friend who worked at Sea Launch more than decade ago and now he wasn't able to get green card he won because of security clearance.
hadlock 4y ago
Access to space for the military is right up there with having a tank factory, rifle factory and bullet factory. You cannot be a superpower, let alone have a functional independent military without access to space.

chii 4y ago

They can run one where china supplies the required components.

NicoJuicy 4y ago
I doubt China will pay Russia for the space program as the US did.
vincnetas 4y ago
Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics : On October 7, the Biden administration unveiled a sweeping set of export controls that ban Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. The rule also restricts the ability of “US persons” — including American citizens or green card holders — to provide support for the “development or production” of chips at certain manufacturing facilities in China.
- trogdor 4y ago
  Doesn’t China create advanced electronics?
  - yabones 4y ago
    Mostly assembly with some fabrication. Most semiconductor manufacturing is in Korea and Taiwan, with assembly in China, India, Malaysia, etc. The majority of the design work happens outside of China as well.
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    > Doesn’t China create advanced electronics? It creates advanced electronics in the sense that it assembles them. It does not manufacture advanced or even mid-grade chips though which is the crucial point. That’s all Taiwan, Korea, Japan, USA.
    - spacebanana7 4y ago
      Advanced stuff isn't necessary for space, most rockets/aerospace worked fine with 1960s tech. Obviously nicer chips can be useful, but it's not like TSMC/Samsung are necessary conditions for getting to the moon or making an ICBM.
      - convolvatron 4y ago
        Rad hardened chips use really large node sizes
    - kube-system 4y ago
      I’m not sure that 7nm is not good enough to be called “mid-grade”, but SMIC definitely has the capability of manufacturing chips good enough to get to space.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      SMIC makes 7nm chips, which is considered high-end. It's not the highest of the high end, but it's not far from that, and it's definitely considered high-end.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics : In the short term, I'm sure China will be able to get whatever chips it needs (for military applications, at least) that are available on the civilian market, they'll just have to setup front companies, etc. In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much.
  - chii 4y ago
    > In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much. which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. The cost of the export ban is a drop in business value for all the companies being banned (and without compensation by the US gov't afaict). The ban isn't really going to prevent china from getting close-to-cutting-edge chips for military applications either. So the ban, and the associated costs, is for what exactly?!
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are delaying tactics, they'll make things harder but not impossible for Russia and China to do certain things, and they might have to make unwanted compromises (e.g. force short-term supply chain issues and redesigning using a less robust common civilian grade chip they can get on the grey market rather than the harder-to-get specialized chip they want). Basically, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
      - chii 4y ago
        > don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. this assumes that the "good" is enough, given just a bit more time. My concern is that a delaying tactic is insufficient. The bans will force the domestic production, for real this time, in these technologies. After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not really be able to convince businesses to take the hit and pay high capital cost to produce a worse version just as a stepping stone. The investment capital is likely to be wasteful, or misspent - since the "fallback" of western products are available (until they go to war like russia, and the cut off is abrupt and sudden). A pro-longed ban, like what we see today, without the actual war to trigger it, is likely to give the domestic production the reason it needs to actually get their act together. There's no western "fallback" to make them complacent. So either they fail miserably, or succeed and wipe the west's technological advantage. The "good idea", might not be so good if that were to actually happen.

nradov 4y ago

Many years ago they ran a successful space program with no chips at all.

tokai 4y ago
No they didn't. The Soviet Union did.
- Etheryte 4y ago
  This is an important distinction. The majority of the aerospace know-how in the Soviet Union came from Ukraine, not from Russia.
  - selivanovp 4y ago
    What you’re missing is that factories were built in Ukraine as a part of reconstruction after WW2, but engineers were mostly Russian, relocated from Russia. These days pretty much all Ukrainian space industry is dead, and it was dead even before war. Most competent people left for Russia or USA. Yes, they still provided some components just because it was cheaper to build them in the original factory, but in a last few years Russia just replaced all Ukraine components. Antares had Ukrainian fuel tanks I believe, but I doubt it’ll last long.
    - Etheryte 4y ago
      Regarding engineers, I don't think that's true at all — as a simple example, two of the three lead engineers on the Soviet space program were from Ukraine.
- WeylandYutani 4y ago
  And the USSR actually traded with the West. Made tons of money selling oil, gas and grain. Putin's actions are devoid of economic logic.
  - Retric 4y ago

saiya-jin 4y ago

I don't think you understand russian mentality. If it will be the only option, they will run their space program, however gutted and affected, from grey market. The war will only strengthen this mentality and approach. Just don't expect thats the same grey market that we individuals are exposed to, currently places like Turkey, Georgia, Belarus and plenty of *stan countries are happily providing all the banned wares. Its not like they need to buy enriched plutonium (of which they have plenty), rather just chips and few things around. Or they go completely China way, they can pay in raw materials like platinum, oil, gold, diamonds etc.

batter 4y ago
To run space programs they'll need money. Even with resources they have running both war and space programs will lead to catastrophic consequences. But I suspect that's exactly the way they'll choose.
- 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
  For the time being, the West has been supplying Putin's troops with plenty of money (taxes from selling natural resources go into the federal budget, which is used to fund the military, and therefore the war). They made record profits last year. https://svtv.org/gas-for-putin-war/ https://svtv.org/gas-for-putin-war/
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    IDK about gas, but the price cap on Russian oil is lower than what Russians need to break even. They are now losing money on each exported barrel, but IIRC they can't just stop the production; the wells would become unusable. Of course, the price cap is only in force since December 2022, so the effects haven't fully shown themselves yet.
    - SXX 4y ago
      Where do you get that information about profitability? According to BBC [0] back in 2019 expenses per barrel was $25 before taxes. Obviously sanctions make everything more expensive (hardware, extraction, transport, insurance), but not that expensive. If selling oil was unprofitable Putun would just burn it instead of selling it at loss just like they burned natural gas for $10,000,000 / day for months. [0] https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/news-50392407?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/news-50392407?_x_...

johnwalkr 4y ago

Many aerospace engineers have left Russia in the last year, too.

SXX 4y ago
Yes, but it's unlikely they will continue their work outside of Russia and many people can very well be bought back. Western countries don't really help talent with Russian passports to leave the country and since space industry is very close to military it's only make it harder to get EU / US visas. Source: I have a friend who worked at Sea Launch more than decade ago and now he wasn't able to get green card he won because of security clearance.

hadlock 4y ago

Access to space for the military is right up there with having a tank factory, rifle factory and bullet factory. You cannot be a superpower, let alone have a functional independent military without access to space.