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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

117 points by Michelangelo11 4y ago

marcusverus 4y ago
https://archive.is/OdlIr https://archive.is/OdlIr
jmclnx 4y ago
All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.
- yogthos 4y ago
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  - edrxty 4y ago
    If any state is being propagandized into secession it's Florida right now. They, however, find themselves in a race with mother nature to see who will remove them from the continental US first.
    - solarpunk 4y ago
      I think you and GP should be aware of Calexit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California
    - yogthos 4y ago
      The point here is that this is the equivalent of what US is doing, and something US would never tolerate itself. Just imagine for a second if China set up equivalent of NED and USAID, started funding political campaigns in Texas or Florida, and so on. This is what US is currently doing. US is blatantly interfering in Chinese internal politics and violating Chinese sovereignty while acting as if US has some god given right to meddle in other countries. It's absolutely surreal.
      - DennisP 4y ago
        If the people of Taiwan want to be independent, then it seems a bit paternalistic to assume that it's only because of US propaganda.
        yogthos 4y ago
        No, we can assume that because of long and well documented history of US interfering in Taiwan and pouring billions of dollars into creating a secessionist movement there.
        brazzy 4y ago
        No, we can assume that Taiwan is an independant sovereign country in its own right according to the will of its people. The one pouring billions into creating a secessionist movement there is China.
        yogthos 4y ago
        Just like we can assume that Texas or Florida are independant sovereign countries in their own right according to the will of their people. Once DeSantis gets his private army going, I'll remember to cheer for Flordia's freedom and independence https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/florida-state-guard-desantis/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/florida-state-guard-...
        brazzy 4y ago
        Except Florida and Texas have actually been part of the USA for centuries, while Taiwan has never been part of the PRC and has existed as a de facto sovereign country as long as the PRC has. Plus only a clear minority of the people of Texas or Florida actually wants to secede, whereas a large majority of Taiwanese wants to remain an independent country.
        ashwagary 4y ago
  - 100pctremote 4y ago
    Texas and Taiwan share very little in common in terms of history as political states and entities in the world economic system. It's a strange analogy you're asking us to make with negligible equivalencies.
    - yogthos 4y ago
      What Texas and Taiwan share is that they're both territories of sovereign nations. US has no business interfering in the internal politics of other countries. It's that simple. US State Department acknowledges that Taiwan is par of China in black and white: The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy**, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
      - nl 4y ago
        You keep quoting this, seemingly without reading it: From the "Six Assurances" mentioned right there: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Additionally, the "Taiwan Relations Act" (again mentioned right there) says: > The act authorizes de facto diplomatic relations with the governing authorities by giving special powers to the AIT to the level that it is the de facto embassy, and states that any international agreements made between the ROC and U.S. before 1979 are still valid unless otherwise terminated. (noting the that Postdam treaty you mention elsewhere was made with the ROC government because it was in 1945) > The TRA provides for Taiwan to be treated under U.S. laws the same as "foreign countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities", thus treating Taiwan as a sub-sovereign foreign state equivalent. The act provides that for most practical purposes of the U.S. government, the absence of diplomatic relations and recognition will have no effect. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
  - manuelabeledo 4y ago
    Maybe they should. They didn't even seem bothered to vote against the Crimea annexation, so there's some history there.
  - bxtt 4y ago
    I never got this argument and I now where this point devolves into - I see this take a lot from Chinese on Weibo, locally here in Asia, and by Chinese people in the States. I’m Taiwanese-American for background. If China were to interfere domestically into U.S affairs covertly and somehow convince Texas into secession - I would find it difficult to believe the United States would go to war with Texas. If it was democratically voted, most Americans would be fine with it. It would be extremely unpopular to go to war over this. Just reverse it, if California were to leave the Union, most conservative states would say good riddance. Now bomb SF? Not even the most deranged Americans would want that.
- itake 4y ago
  > All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. Maybe I am diving too much into the weeds here, but my understanding with HK is when the UK left and setup autonomous region with China in 1984, China/UK agree to leave the gov unchanged for 50 years after 1997 [0]. This interim government that was setup is controlled by CCP members. My understanding is the Taiwan gov has always been completely separate from HK's. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration
  - anonkogudhyfhhf 4y ago
    Taiwan govt ruled China and lost to the Communists in the civil war. Both countries see Taiwan as part of a greater China
    - foobarian 4y ago
      It's a governmental net-split!
  - mulmen 4y ago
    Taiwan has no relationship to HK. My understanding as an outsider: Taiwan is governed by the Republic of China (ROC), which regained control of Taiwan in 1945 after the Japanese pulled out. ROC was overthrown my Mao's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Chinese Civil War and lost control of the Chinese mainland allowing the CCP to form the People's Republic of China (PRC). The ROC retained control of Taiwan. Taiwan has always been independent from the PRC and CCP. This completely ignores the actual native Taiwanese people who may or may not consider themselves Chinese. That is a topic I can't even begin to comment on. The takeaway from HK in the context of Taiwan is that the People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule.
    - simplotek 4y ago
      > (...) the People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule. This. PRC's talk of "reunification" reads like a trojan horse played with a long hand which was what happened in HK.
- pphysch 4y ago
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  - gumby 4y ago
    The CCP abandoned their promises of a democratic system and controlled the legislature, then more recently cracked down on speech, protest, and anything different from mainland practice. HK had had no democracy under the British, but declassified documents have since shown that that was at the demand of the Chinese government who threatened to invade if HK was allowed to vote.
    - nayuki 4y ago
      Yup. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-push-against-hong-kong-elections-in-50s.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-pu... > But documents recently released by the National Archives in Britain suggest that beginning in the 1950s, the colonial governors who ran Hong Kong repeatedly sought to introduce popular elections but abandoned those efforts in the face of pressure by Communist Party leaders in Beijing. > The documents, part of a batch of typewritten diplomatic dispatches requested by reporters from two Hong Kong newspapers, reveal that Chinese leaders were so opposed to the prospect of a democratic Hong Kong that they threatened to invade should London attempt to change the status quo. > Another document recounts a meeting two years earlier, during which Premier Zhou Enlai told a British military officer that any effort to introduce even a modicum of self-governance to Hong Kong would be viewed as “a very unfriendly act” and a “conspiracy,” one he suggested would be seen as a move to set the colony on a path to independence. > The threats had the desired effect. Britain made little effort to introduce electoral democracy in Hong Kong in the decades that followed.
  - bena 4y ago
    When Hong Kong was ceded back to China, they were promised a certain level of autonomy for a certain amount of years. After a few years, China realized they didn't have to keep their word and have been rapidly taking more direct control of the area than initially promised.
- dwohnitmok 4y ago
  The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're thinking of. The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite direction. The opposing faction rejects these ambitions and wants Taiwan to go its own way. EDIT: Since it's not necessarily military intervention.
  - adastra22 4y ago
    That was Taiwanese politics in the 90’s. It doesn’t reflect current party policy.
    - dwohnitmok 4y ago
      As far as I'm aware this is still the official party line of the KMT. It's just that now the DPP (their opposition) is in power.
      - bxtt 4y ago
        My parents are from Taiwan with my moms side hardline KMT govt officials, and Dad is Green Party/DPP - grew up listening about Taiwanese politics my entire life around friends and family. I’ve never heard of this stance. I’ve only heard of your stance on Reddit and Twitter within the past two years.
        adastra22 4y ago
        My wife is from Taiwan, so I’m kinda clued into this even if once removed. Doesn’t trump your inside source though. My understanding is that in the last few decades the KMT had been following (in practice at least) a more business-friendly economic and regulatory unification with the mainland. The deals negotiated by the KMT with the PRC that led to the sunflower movement and the rise of the DPP were very much pro-status quo, pro-stability rejection of the historical KMT policy. The KMT has never officially given up the reconquest position, but it has been decades since that that was anymore than lip service to the one China idea. In practice KMT policies have been pro-unification in the EU or HK sense.
- dirtyid 4y ago
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  - simplotek 4y ago
    > Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover. Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      >unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war continues. TW won't be that lucky, reality is it's too small and close to PRC backyard to rebuild. PRC can ensure TW stays a subsistence society post war forever. And that's going to be the lesson / choice TW politicians will draw, they can look at integrated HK or free UKR (really, Yemen/Palestine) and decide.
      - simplotek 4y ago
        I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance. To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling regime is now afraid their defeat spells the collapse of Russia and consequently it's fragmentation. In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine, not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. There are countries who had a far less favourable postwar setting which rebounded quite well. If Taiwan has any lesson to take from Ukraine, that lesson is that fighting for its independence pays off.
- kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
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  - wk_end 4y ago
    It wasn't about "taking orders", and it had nothing to do with the British. The CCP broke promises they'd made to the people of Hong Kong.
    - kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
      Promises made to appease the British as a condition for the handover.
      - simplotek 4y ago
        > Promises made to appease the British as a condition for the handover. Care to explain what point you believe you are making?
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      The opposite, HK broke the promise it made to PRC by dragging out implementation of NSL that was always in PRC legal perview to unilaterally implement. The reality is PRC demonstrated stupid patience by letting the HK, the spyhub of Asian operate for 20 years under state of national security exception that any other sovereign would not tolerate. HKers literally had the carte blanche to commit treason (and did), so reasonab for PRC to close that legal loophole after putting up with it for 20 years. E over post limit >You can't commit treason to a country no never agreed to join. As if they have a say in the matter. British Crown handed them over to PRC and turned them into Chinese citizens. Ergo they can commit treason the second they formally draw breath on Chinese soil. Law finally catching up so said treason can be prosecuted, like any sensible national security framework.
      - ginko 4y ago
        >HKers literally had the carte blanche to commit treason You can't commit treason to a country no never agreed to join.
- epolanski 4y ago
  Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997. Very different case. As for Taiwan, if they declared independence it will be an act of war. Don't forget that US protects Taiwan on the basis it does not declare itself a sovereign country. Also, don't forget this is the official map of the Republic of China (Taiwan): https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg
  - uniqueuid 4y ago
    While these facts are important, they sound like Taiwan is unequivocally part of the PRC. But that's probably not what people in Taiwan or many western nations would say. - Taiwan clearly has the outward appearance of a full-fledged nation - There are (few) countries that have recognized it as a sovereign nation - Taiwan maintains some form of diplomatic relations, and Nancy Pelosi's recent visit was a very public sign of that - Taiwan and the PRC have been at war in the past Some might take this to say that the official status is contested.
    - epolanski 4y ago
      > they sound like Taiwan is unequivocally part of the PRC No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes. It's like the US had a civil war and the losing side flees to Hawaii and in 2090 we still arguing whether it is part of not of US or should it declare independence.
      - uniqueuid 4y ago
        > It's like the US had a civil war and the losing side flees to Hawaii and in 2090 we still arguing whether it is part of not of US or should it declare independence. That actually sounds like a very plausible counterfactual to someone outside the US.
      - tablespoon 4y ago
        > No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes. That presumes the "official" position is the genuine position, which is often not the case. With regards to Taiwan, "official" positions are often lies tied in knots to appease Mainland China's sensibilities.
- Aperocky 4y ago
  > I would announce it is now a independent Country. I am disappointed to see HN devolve into armchair general territory. In this specific case, the constitution ruling over Taiwan is the Constitution of Republic of China adopted in 1946 in Nanjing, before the PRC was a thing. In general most of Taiwan does not believe it needs to do anything to "proclaim" their independence, only a tiny minority want to change the constitution (not just an amendment, the name of the constitution itself), which would be rather difficult on almost all levels..
  - mytailorisrich 4y ago
    That reminds me when Ma Ying-jeou was President in Taiwan and was asked about independence, and he replied "Independence from what? The ROC has been independent since 1912".
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - tpoacher 4y ago
    If Ukraine is anything to go by, US publications starting to "prompt" us this way now, means something has just changed in the political chessboard, and we're likely only a couple of months away before China is poised to announce its own "special operation".
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country. Then you have war, and China attacks Taiwan and probably conquers it. What did your announcement gain? I believe pretty much every recent US wargame about Taiwan has ended in a US loss, and the US military has only recently started to reconfigure itself to fight great-power wars again and it is far from done. Also, the US has already emptied its existing stockpiles to help Ukraine, and the logistics to get war material to Taiwan are much more challenging. China also gets to learn from Russia's mistakes, and it would also be foolish to assume China will be as incompetent as Russia proved to be. Basically, such an announcement would be a "Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200," move on Taiwan's part.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  Considering how the mainland and Taiwan split there is never going to be a peaceful reunification as long as the communists are in power on the mainland. That's why Beijing did not care, and does not care, about the signals they send in HK.
- stjohnswarts 4y ago
  If there is one thing that the CCP cannot stand is the idea that democracy exists somewhere under their umbrella. It will be destroyed and there is no room for it under their totalitarian philosophy that common people are children to be controlled by The Party
- MrRiddle 4y ago
  [dead]
- real_jiakai 4y ago
  So you have no qualification to say in Taiwan.
questime 4y ago
[flagged]
steponlego 4y ago
It may be time to recognize that the one China policy which the US has supported has essentially doomed Taiwan. Sure we had some laughs and a lot of people made many billions of dollars off the backs of Chinese slaves, but there is no resisting the PRC’s power and might - power and might that the United States, or more accurately a clique of business people and government functionaries here, have nurtured.
mupuff1234 4y ago
Probably a completely idiotic suggestion, but why can't the US secretly provide Taiwan with a few nukes if things really heat up as a very last measure to deter China.
- pphysch 4y ago
  That worked out fantastic in 1962.
- krisoft 4y ago
  To quote Dr. Strangelove: “Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret!” What do you think would be the point of Taiwan having secret nukes? What would they do with them? Or for that matter non-secret nukes?
- steponlego 4y ago
  China would provide us with a few if we did that. Actually I believe the nukes are coming soon but thankfully will be limited to Europe and the UK.
  - ChatGTP 4y ago
    Thankfully? There is nothing ‘thankfully’ about watching millions of people be vaporised or their skin melting off and children with cancers?
    - steponlego 4y ago
      Hey, you don't get to start WWIII and then puss out at the last, most kinetic stage. Europe is solidly on track for nuclear war. Russia already said they wouldn't nuke the USA, after nuking the UK that'd take the starch out of us, in their estimation. I suspect they're correct. NATO has been all fired up to balkanize Russia and start WWIII. I won't hear any whining and moaning when the dream comes true. I won't stand for it no matter HOW many people die.
- cm2187 4y ago
  What would be idiotic is to do that secretly. The whole point of nukes is that the enemy (and its public opinion) knows you have them and intend to use them if necessary.
cm2187 4y ago
What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?
- pphysch 4y ago
  The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.
    - amelius 4y ago
      They are more difficult to intercept, though.
      - cm2187 4y ago
        The thing with nukes is that unless you think you can intercept 100% of the missile with certainty, the deterrence is there. Particularly with China’s megacities.
    - pphysch 4y ago
      China is big
      - cm2187 4y ago
        All the cities and population are on the coast. You don't threaten to nuke a desert
  - monkeydreams 4y ago
    > The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands. The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year. Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific. Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer). +Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents
it_citizen 4y ago
I am curious what the dominant opinion is in China regarding what the population of Taiwan wants. That the majority of Taiwanese want to become Chinese? That it doesn’t matter what the Taiwan population wants because China has the right to claim it?
- deleted 4y ago
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- bena 4y ago
  The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the government of China? I would say that the majority of the people of China are much like the majority of the people of any land, they don't directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for most of their days. However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. That island is part of China. The people of Taiwan have different opinions. Three major ones last I looked. There's the opinion of the natives who think Taiwan should be its own country, independent of any other country's influence. Control of the area has alternated between China and Japan. With China getting control back in 1945 after WWII. Then there's the people who believe that the ROC should be reinstated on the mainland. And finally, some people who think they should just become members of the PRC and get all over with.
  - epolanski 4y ago
    > However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.
    - DennisP 4y ago
      As of today though, "rogue" seems a bit of a judgment call. From the perspective of every country besides China, there's nothing rogue about Taiwan's government, they're a pretty well-behaved member of the international community.
yrdmb 4y ago
[flagged]
- gruez 4y ago
  What exactly are you argue here? That because Taiwan is a democracy, newspapers can't write articles about what they should do? That Taiwan's people doesn't want to prepare for conflict?
- stale2002 4y ago
  > How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and taiwan decide the matter for themselves. Taiwan currently has decided for themselves that they are happy to accept military weapons from the US, to defend themselves in the case of any military action against them from China. If that is Taiwan's decision, they should be supported and allowed to make it.
  - yrdmb 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - stale2002 4y ago
      > only "independent" because we got involved The people of Taiwan do not want to be invaded by China. So, given that this is their wish, and Taiwan wants to be able to defend itself, it is OK to support their wishes and give them the means to defend themselves. > The decision was already made. Well, they are right now deciding that they want to be able to defend themselves. So I respect that decision, which is that they want weapons and ways to defend themselves. > don't want war. There isn't going to be a war if China doesn't invade. Which is why it is important to respect Taiwan's wishes to have the means of defending themselves. > So taiwan can't decide anything Even if you think that, this is all the more reason that they should be given as many weapons as they want, so they can make their own decisions and are not forced to do anything by an invading army.
      - yrdmb 4y ago
yogthos 4y ago
The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their official page [3]: The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy**, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-uncertain/ https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-unc... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Declaration [3] https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
- unethical_ban 4y ago
  What is your point?
  - yogthos 4y ago
    What part of my comment is unclear to you?
    - unethical_ban 4y ago
      The part where any of that matters. Which country has billions of dollars in defense spending with the US?
      - yogthos 4y ago
        As the links I provided clearly explain, Taiwan is not a country. What US is doing is funding and arming a separatist movement in a province of China.
Animats 4y ago
If there is a war, it will not be a short, victorious one. It will mean the destruction of cities in both Taiwan and mainland China. Russia has the advantage with Ukraine that there are no major Russian population or industrial centers in range of Ukraine. That's not true of China and Taiwan.
aseerdbnarng 4y ago
While the Chinese threat to Taiwan is not something to be dismissed completely, the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating so I really struggle to see a convincing case for the CCP risking national suicide and its own existence over Taiwan
- epolanski 4y ago
  I find it funny how much we in the west demonize China while we have attacked them, colonized them, consistently tampered with them, didn't recognize the PRC till the late 70s. China has never laid a finger on the west, we did, yet we keep demonizing them, meddling in their own business (HK, e.g.) all while we fight wars all around the globe, spy everyone and overthrow governments left and right.
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    The PRC did send troops to Korea during the Korean war, the result of which is the north Korean dictatorship that abuses it's citizens and threatens nuclear war. It also drove out the KMT, which was part of "the west" in the sense that they were the principle Chinese Allied faction combating the empire of Japan during WWII. That and continued violation of territorial waters of surrounding countries. "China hasn't laid a finger" is quite the understatement.
    - epolanski 4y ago
      So for the US troops it was fine to go there, but for chinese not?
      - dragon-hn 4y ago
        Who said that? Also, the US were there under UNSC resolution. Not so much for the PRC.
  - 4y ago
ninethirty 4y ago
If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. If I was rich I'd move to Buenos Aires, the Paris of South America, and wait this thing out.
- epolanski 4y ago
  China isn't invading anyone and SK has a strong modern army.
- simplotek 4y ago
  > If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. You mean just like what the US did during the 90s and 2000s?
- postingawayonhn 4y ago
  Why would North Korea try that? I don't believe there is any sign they have plan to invade South Korea.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Unlikely NKR would invade but theyve explicitly stated US intervention in TW especially from SKR could destablize and pop off drama on the peninsula. https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiwan-could-target-north-korea-pyongyang-warns/ https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiw...
inconceivable 4y ago
does anyone know of a betting/futures market where one can put a wager on this happening or not by a certain date? the rhetoric in the west has gotten so intense in this area that i'm feeling like talking about it online is pointless - i'd rather put my money down.
- not-my-account 4y ago
  https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-inv...
- cwkoss 4y ago
  Found: https://insightprediction.com/m/162/will-there-be-an-armed-conflict-between-taiwan-and-china-by-2023 https://insightprediction.com/m/162/will-there-be-an-armed-c... no depth, and unavailable to US people
- AnnikaL 4y ago
  https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan?r=YQ https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invad... https://manifold.markets/a/china-will-not-launch-a-fullscale-i?r=YQ https://manifold.markets/a/china-will-not-launch-a-fullscale...
peter303 4y ago
I can see much of the paywalled article. But I hope it mentions the recent book Chip Wars about how TMSC became the worlds leading high end chip manufacturer. However even they are dependent on international expertise like Extreme Ultraviolet lasers. A Taiwan war could bring international semiconductor manufacturing to a full halt. We have seen previews in covid slowdowns and large 1990s earthquake,
stephc_int13 4y ago
There is one big problem with military force: training soldiers and officers is so difficult that real military powers always have to fight somewhere to "stay in shape" so to speak. A generation that never fought is likely to be confronted with a very harsh reality on the field. Luckily, China has not been fighting much during the past few decades.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Luckily, China has not been fighting much during the past few decades. On the other hand, neither has Taiwan.
newbie578 4y ago
I'll never understand how are there so many CCP apologetics on HN.. Just read some of the comments.. Especially when people try to reason that a democratic USA is worse for your personal benefit than a communist China.. I do wonder if those kind of people actually lived in a communist country..
- ipnon 4y ago
  For a variety of reasons CCP talking points are legitimately popular in PRC, and there are many PRC citizens in the tech industry.
ipnon 4y ago
From the perspective of the Taiwanese state, survival is the primary objective. In this case it is best to prolong the status quo where Taiwan is a political Rorschach test, obtaining the appearance of whatever you want depending on who looks. This satisfies the demands of Cross-Strait relations, internal politics, and the relationship with United States and other allies. Obtaining nuclear weapons or declaring independence makes no sense then because it jeopardizes national security, despite “making sense.” National security and sociopolitical logic are often at odds, by no means uniquely in Taiwan.
ipnon 4y ago
I just returned from Taiwan and to be frank Cross-Strait relations and escalation seems to take up little real estate in the public psyche, I would estimate about as much as it does in the United States if not less. The news cycle is more likely to be filled with stories of scooter crashes or the war in Ukraine than any perceived deterioration in relations with PRC.

https://archive.is/OdlIr https://archive.is/OdlIr

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

yogthos 4y ago
[flagged]
- edrxty 4y ago
  If any state is being propagandized into secession it's Florida right now. They, however, find themselves in a race with mother nature to see who will remove them from the continental US first.
  - solarpunk 4y ago
    I think you and GP should be aware of Calexit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California
  - yogthos 4y ago
    The point here is that this is the equivalent of what US is doing, and something US would never tolerate itself. Just imagine for a second if China set up equivalent of NED and USAID, started funding political campaigns in Texas or Florida, and so on. This is what US is currently doing. US is blatantly interfering in Chinese internal politics and violating Chinese sovereignty while acting as if US has some god given right to meddle in other countries. It's absolutely surreal.
    - DennisP 4y ago
      If the people of Taiwan want to be independent, then it seems a bit paternalistic to assume that it's only because of US propaganda.
      - yogthos 4y ago
        No, we can assume that because of long and well documented history of US interfering in Taiwan and pouring billions of dollars into creating a secessionist movement there.
        brazzy 4y ago
        No, we can assume that Taiwan is an independant sovereign country in its own right according to the will of its people. The one pouring billions into creating a secessionist movement there is China.
        yogthos 4y ago
        Just like we can assume that Texas or Florida are independant sovereign countries in their own right according to the will of their people. Once DeSantis gets his private army going, I'll remember to cheer for Flordia's freedom and independence https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/florida-state-guard-desantis/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/florida-state-guard-...
        brazzy 4y ago
        Except Florida and Texas have actually been part of the USA for centuries, while Taiwan has never been part of the PRC and has existed as a de facto sovereign country as long as the PRC has. Plus only a clear minority of the people of Texas or Florida actually wants to secede, whereas a large majority of Taiwanese wants to remain an independent country.
        ashwagary 4y ago
- 100pctremote 4y ago
  Texas and Taiwan share very little in common in terms of history as political states and entities in the world economic system. It's a strange analogy you're asking us to make with negligible equivalencies.
  - yogthos 4y ago
    What Texas and Taiwan share is that they're both territories of sovereign nations. US has no business interfering in the internal politics of other countries. It's that simple. US State Department acknowledges that Taiwan is par of China in black and white: The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy**, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
    - nl 4y ago
      You keep quoting this, seemingly without reading it: From the "Six Assurances" mentioned right there: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Additionally, the "Taiwan Relations Act" (again mentioned right there) says: > The act authorizes de facto diplomatic relations with the governing authorities by giving special powers to the AIT to the level that it is the de facto embassy, and states that any international agreements made between the ROC and U.S. before 1979 are still valid unless otherwise terminated. (noting the that Postdam treaty you mention elsewhere was made with the ROC government because it was in 1945) > The TRA provides for Taiwan to be treated under U.S. laws the same as "foreign countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities", thus treating Taiwan as a sub-sovereign foreign state equivalent. The act provides that for most practical purposes of the U.S. government, the absence of diplomatic relations and recognition will have no effect. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
- manuelabeledo 4y ago
  Maybe they should. They didn't even seem bothered to vote against the Crimea annexation, so there's some history there.
- bxtt 4y ago
  I never got this argument and I now where this point devolves into - I see this take a lot from Chinese on Weibo, locally here in Asia, and by Chinese people in the States. I’m Taiwanese-American for background. If China were to interfere domestically into U.S affairs covertly and somehow convince Texas into secession - I would find it difficult to believe the United States would go to war with Texas. If it was democratically voted, most Americans would be fine with it. It would be extremely unpopular to go to war over this. Just reverse it, if California were to leave the Union, most conservative states would say good riddance. Now bomb SF? Not even the most deranged Americans would want that.
itake 4y ago
> All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. Maybe I am diving too much into the weeds here, but my understanding with HK is when the UK left and setup autonomous region with China in 1984, China/UK agree to leave the gov unchanged for 50 years after 1997 [0]. This interim government that was setup is controlled by CCP members. My understanding is the Taiwan gov has always been completely separate from HK's. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration
- anonkogudhyfhhf 4y ago
  Taiwan govt ruled China and lost to the Communists in the civil war. Both countries see Taiwan as part of a greater China
  - foobarian 4y ago
    It's a governmental net-split!
- mulmen 4y ago
  Taiwan has no relationship to HK. My understanding as an outsider: Taiwan is governed by the Republic of China (ROC), which regained control of Taiwan in 1945 after the Japanese pulled out. ROC was overthrown my Mao's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Chinese Civil War and lost control of the Chinese mainland allowing the CCP to form the People's Republic of China (PRC). The ROC retained control of Taiwan. Taiwan has always been independent from the PRC and CCP. This completely ignores the actual native Taiwanese people who may or may not consider themselves Chinese. That is a topic I can't even begin to comment on. The takeaway from HK in the context of Taiwan is that the People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule.
  - simplotek 4y ago
    > (...) the People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule. This. PRC's talk of "reunification" reads like a trojan horse played with a long hand which was what happened in HK.
pphysch 4y ago
[flagged]
- gumby 4y ago
  The CCP abandoned their promises of a democratic system and controlled the legislature, then more recently cracked down on speech, protest, and anything different from mainland practice. HK had had no democracy under the British, but declassified documents have since shown that that was at the demand of the Chinese government who threatened to invade if HK was allowed to vote.
  - nayuki 4y ago
    Yup. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-push-against-hong-kong-elections-in-50s.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-pu... > But documents recently released by the National Archives in Britain suggest that beginning in the 1950s, the colonial governors who ran Hong Kong repeatedly sought to introduce popular elections but abandoned those efforts in the face of pressure by Communist Party leaders in Beijing. > The documents, part of a batch of typewritten diplomatic dispatches requested by reporters from two Hong Kong newspapers, reveal that Chinese leaders were so opposed to the prospect of a democratic Hong Kong that they threatened to invade should London attempt to change the status quo. > Another document recounts a meeting two years earlier, during which Premier Zhou Enlai told a British military officer that any effort to introduce even a modicum of self-governance to Hong Kong would be viewed as “a very unfriendly act” and a “conspiracy,” one he suggested would be seen as a move to set the colony on a path to independence. > The threats had the desired effect. Britain made little effort to introduce electoral democracy in Hong Kong in the decades that followed.
- bena 4y ago
  When Hong Kong was ceded back to China, they were promised a certain level of autonomy for a certain amount of years. After a few years, China realized they didn't have to keep their word and have been rapidly taking more direct control of the area than initially promised.
dwohnitmok 4y ago
The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're thinking of. The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite direction. The opposing faction rejects these ambitions and wants Taiwan to go its own way. EDIT: Since it's not necessarily military intervention.
- adastra22 4y ago
  That was Taiwanese politics in the 90’s. It doesn’t reflect current party policy.
  - dwohnitmok 4y ago
    As far as I'm aware this is still the official party line of the KMT. It's just that now the DPP (their opposition) is in power.
    - bxtt 4y ago
      My parents are from Taiwan with my moms side hardline KMT govt officials, and Dad is Green Party/DPP - grew up listening about Taiwanese politics my entire life around friends and family. I’ve never heard of this stance. I’ve only heard of your stance on Reddit and Twitter within the past two years.
      - adastra22 4y ago
        My wife is from Taiwan, so I’m kinda clued into this even if once removed. Doesn’t trump your inside source though. My understanding is that in the last few decades the KMT had been following (in practice at least) a more business-friendly economic and regulatory unification with the mainland. The deals negotiated by the KMT with the PRC that led to the sunflower movement and the rise of the DPP were very much pro-status quo, pro-stability rejection of the historical KMT policy. The KMT has never officially given up the reconquest position, but it has been decades since that that was anymore than lip service to the one China idea. In practice KMT policies have been pro-unification in the EU or HK sense.
dirtyid 4y ago
[flagged]
- simplotek 4y ago
  > Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover. Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    >unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war continues. TW won't be that lucky, reality is it's too small and close to PRC backyard to rebuild. PRC can ensure TW stays a subsistence society post war forever. And that's going to be the lesson / choice TW politicians will draw, they can look at integrated HK or free UKR (really, Yemen/Palestine) and decide.
    - simplotek 4y ago
      I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance. To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling regime is now afraid their defeat spells the collapse of Russia and consequently it's fragmentation. In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine, not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. There are countries who had a far less favourable postwar setting which rebounded quite well. If Taiwan has any lesson to take from Ukraine, that lesson is that fighting for its independence pays off.
kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
[flagged]
- wk_end 4y ago
  It wasn't about "taking orders", and it had nothing to do with the British. The CCP broke promises they'd made to the people of Hong Kong.
  - kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
    Promises made to appease the British as a condition for the handover.
    - simplotek 4y ago
      > Promises made to appease the British as a condition for the handover. Care to explain what point you believe you are making?
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    The opposite, HK broke the promise it made to PRC by dragging out implementation of NSL that was always in PRC legal perview to unilaterally implement. The reality is PRC demonstrated stupid patience by letting the HK, the spyhub of Asian operate for 20 years under state of national security exception that any other sovereign would not tolerate. HKers literally had the carte blanche to commit treason (and did), so reasonab for PRC to close that legal loophole after putting up with it for 20 years. E over post limit >You can't commit treason to a country no never agreed to join. As if they have a say in the matter. British Crown handed them over to PRC and turned them into Chinese citizens. Ergo they can commit treason the second they formally draw breath on Chinese soil. Law finally catching up so said treason can be prosecuted, like any sensible national security framework.
    - ginko 4y ago
      >HKers literally had the carte blanche to commit treason You can't commit treason to a country no never agreed to join.
epolanski 4y ago
Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997. Very different case. As for Taiwan, if they declared independence it will be an act of war. Don't forget that US protects Taiwan on the basis it does not declare itself a sovereign country. Also, don't forget this is the official map of the Republic of China (Taiwan): https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg
- uniqueuid 4y ago
  While these facts are important, they sound like Taiwan is unequivocally part of the PRC. But that's probably not what people in Taiwan or many western nations would say. - Taiwan clearly has the outward appearance of a full-fledged nation - There are (few) countries that have recognized it as a sovereign nation - Taiwan maintains some form of diplomatic relations, and Nancy Pelosi's recent visit was a very public sign of that - Taiwan and the PRC have been at war in the past Some might take this to say that the official status is contested.
  - epolanski 4y ago
    > they sound like Taiwan is unequivocally part of the PRC No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes. It's like the US had a civil war and the losing side flees to Hawaii and in 2090 we still arguing whether it is part of not of US or should it declare independence.
    - uniqueuid 4y ago
      > It's like the US had a civil war and the losing side flees to Hawaii and in 2090 we still arguing whether it is part of not of US or should it declare independence. That actually sounds like a very plausible counterfactual to someone outside the US.
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes. That presumes the "official" position is the genuine position, which is often not the case. With regards to Taiwan, "official" positions are often lies tied in knots to appease Mainland China's sensibilities.
Aperocky 4y ago
> I would announce it is now a independent Country. I am disappointed to see HN devolve into armchair general territory. In this specific case, the constitution ruling over Taiwan is the Constitution of Republic of China adopted in 1946 in Nanjing, before the PRC was a thing. In general most of Taiwan does not believe it needs to do anything to "proclaim" their independence, only a tiny minority want to change the constitution (not just an amendment, the name of the constitution itself), which would be rather difficult on almost all levels..
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  That reminds me when Ma Ying-jeou was President in Taiwan and was asked about independence, and he replied "Independence from what? The ROC has been independent since 1912".
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- tpoacher 4y ago
  If Ukraine is anything to go by, US publications starting to "prompt" us this way now, means something has just changed in the political chessboard, and we're likely only a couple of months away before China is poised to announce its own "special operation".
tablespoon 4y ago
> This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country. Then you have war, and China attacks Taiwan and probably conquers it. What did your announcement gain? I believe pretty much every recent US wargame about Taiwan has ended in a US loss, and the US military has only recently started to reconfigure itself to fight great-power wars again and it is far from done. Also, the US has already emptied its existing stockpiles to help Ukraine, and the logistics to get war material to Taiwan are much more challenging. China also gets to learn from Russia's mistakes, and it would also be foolish to assume China will be as incompetent as Russia proved to be. Basically, such an announcement would be a "Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200," move on Taiwan's part.
mytailorisrich 4y ago
Considering how the mainland and Taiwan split there is never going to be a peaceful reunification as long as the communists are in power on the mainland. That's why Beijing did not care, and does not care, about the signals they send in HK.
stjohnswarts 4y ago
If there is one thing that the CCP cannot stand is the idea that democracy exists somewhere under their umbrella. It will be destroyed and there is no room for it under their totalitarian philosophy that common people are children to be controlled by The Party
MrRiddle 4y ago
[dead]
real_jiakai 4y ago
So you have no qualification to say in Taiwan.

questime 4y ago

[flagged]

steponlego 4y ago

It may be time to recognize that the one China policy which the US has supported has essentially doomed Taiwan. Sure we had some laughs and a lot of people made many billions of dollars off the backs of Chinese slaves, but there is no resisting the PRC’s power and might - power and might that the United States, or more accurately a clique of business people and government functionaries here, have nurtured.

mupuff1234 4y ago

Probably a completely idiotic suggestion, but why can't the US secretly provide Taiwan with a few nukes if things really heat up as a very last measure to deter China.

pphysch 4y ago
That worked out fantastic in 1962.
krisoft 4y ago
To quote Dr. Strangelove: “Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret!” What do you think would be the point of Taiwan having secret nukes? What would they do with them? Or for that matter non-secret nukes?
steponlego 4y ago
China would provide us with a few if we did that. Actually I believe the nukes are coming soon but thankfully will be limited to Europe and the UK.
- ChatGTP 4y ago
  Thankfully? There is nothing ‘thankfully’ about watching millions of people be vaporised or their skin melting off and children with cancers?
  - steponlego 4y ago
    Hey, you don't get to start WWIII and then puss out at the last, most kinetic stage. Europe is solidly on track for nuclear war. Russia already said they wouldn't nuke the USA, after nuking the UK that'd take the starch out of us, in their estimation. I suspect they're correct. NATO has been all fired up to balkanize Russia and start WWIII. I won't hear any whining and moaning when the dream comes true. I won't stand for it no matter HOW many people die.
cm2187 4y ago
What would be idiotic is to do that secretly. The whole point of nukes is that the enemy (and its public opinion) knows you have them and intend to use them if necessary.

cm2187 4y ago

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

pphysch 4y ago
The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.
- cm2187 4y ago
  Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.
  - amelius 4y ago
    They are more difficult to intercept, though.
    - cm2187 4y ago
      The thing with nukes is that unless you think you can intercept 100% of the missile with certainty, the deterrence is there. Particularly with China’s megacities.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    China is big
    - cm2187 4y ago
      All the cities and population are on the coast. You don't threaten to nuke a desert
- monkeydreams 4y ago
  > The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands. The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year. Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific. Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer). +Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents

it_citizen 4y ago

I am curious what the dominant opinion is in China regarding what the population of Taiwan wants. That the majority of Taiwanese want to become Chinese? That it doesn’t matter what the Taiwan population wants because China has the right to claim it?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
bena 4y ago
The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the government of China? I would say that the majority of the people of China are much like the majority of the people of any land, they don't directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for most of their days. However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. That island is part of China. The people of Taiwan have different opinions. Three major ones last I looked. There's the opinion of the natives who think Taiwan should be its own country, independent of any other country's influence. Control of the area has alternated between China and Japan. With China getting control back in 1945 after WWII. Then there's the people who believe that the ROC should be reinstated on the mainland. And finally, some people who think they should just become members of the PRC and get all over with.
- epolanski 4y ago
  > However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.
  - DennisP 4y ago
    As of today though, "rogue" seems a bit of a judgment call. From the perspective of every country besides China, there's nothing rogue about Taiwan's government, they're a pretty well-behaved member of the international community.

yrdmb 4y ago

[flagged]

gruez 4y ago
What exactly are you argue here? That because Taiwan is a democracy, newspapers can't write articles about what they should do? That Taiwan's people doesn't want to prepare for conflict?
stale2002 4y ago
> How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and taiwan decide the matter for themselves. Taiwan currently has decided for themselves that they are happy to accept military weapons from the US, to defend themselves in the case of any military action against them from China. If that is Taiwan's decision, they should be supported and allowed to make it.
- yrdmb 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - stale2002 4y ago
    > only "independent" because we got involved The people of Taiwan do not want to be invaded by China. So, given that this is their wish, and Taiwan wants to be able to defend itself, it is OK to support their wishes and give them the means to defend themselves. > The decision was already made. Well, they are right now deciding that they want to be able to defend themselves. So I respect that decision, which is that they want weapons and ways to defend themselves. > don't want war. There isn't going to be a war if China doesn't invade. Which is why it is important to respect Taiwan's wishes to have the means of defending themselves. > So taiwan can't decide anything Even if you think that, this is all the more reason that they should be given as many weapons as they want, so they can make their own decisions and are not forced to do anything by an invading army.
    - yrdmb 4y ago

yogthos 4y ago

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their official page [3]: The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy**, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-uncertain/ https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-unc... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Declaration [3] https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/

unethical_ban 4y ago
What is your point?
- yogthos 4y ago
  What part of my comment is unclear to you?
  - unethical_ban 4y ago
    The part where any of that matters. Which country has billions of dollars in defense spending with the US?
    - yogthos 4y ago
      As the links I provided clearly explain, Taiwan is not a country. What US is doing is funding and arming a separatist movement in a province of China.

Animats 4y ago

If there is a war, it will not be a short, victorious one. It will mean the destruction of cities in both Taiwan and mainland China. Russia has the advantage with Ukraine that there are no major Russian population or industrial centers in range of Ukraine. That's not true of China and Taiwan.

aseerdbnarng 4y ago

While the Chinese threat to Taiwan is not something to be dismissed completely, the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating so I really struggle to see a convincing case for the CCP risking national suicide and its own existence over Taiwan

epolanski 4y ago
I find it funny how much we in the west demonize China while we have attacked them, colonized them, consistently tampered with them, didn't recognize the PRC till the late 70s. China has never laid a finger on the west, we did, yet we keep demonizing them, meddling in their own business (HK, e.g.) all while we fight wars all around the globe, spy everyone and overthrow governments left and right.
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  The PRC did send troops to Korea during the Korean war, the result of which is the north Korean dictatorship that abuses it's citizens and threatens nuclear war. It also drove out the KMT, which was part of "the west" in the sense that they were the principle Chinese Allied faction combating the empire of Japan during WWII. That and continued violation of territorial waters of surrounding countries. "China hasn't laid a finger" is quite the understatement.
  - epolanski 4y ago
    So for the US troops it was fine to go there, but for chinese not?
    - dragon-hn 4y ago
      Who said that? Also, the US were there under UNSC resolution. Not so much for the PRC.
- 4y ago

ninethirty 4y ago

If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. If I was rich I'd move to Buenos Aires, the Paris of South America, and wait this thing out.

epolanski 4y ago
China isn't invading anyone and SK has a strong modern army.
simplotek 4y ago
> If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. You mean just like what the US did during the 90s and 2000s?
postingawayonhn 4y ago
Why would North Korea try that? I don't believe there is any sign they have plan to invade South Korea.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Unlikely NKR would invade but theyve explicitly stated US intervention in TW especially from SKR could destablize and pop off drama on the peninsula. https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiwan-could-target-north-korea-pyongyang-warns/ https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiw...

inconceivable 4y ago

does anyone know of a betting/futures market where one can put a wager on this happening or not by a certain date? the rhetoric in the west has gotten so intense in this area that i'm feeling like talking about it online is pointless - i'd rather put my money down.

not-my-account 4y ago
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-inv...
cwkoss 4y ago
Found: https://insightprediction.com/m/162/will-there-be-an-armed-conflict-between-taiwan-and-china-by-2023 https://insightprediction.com/m/162/will-there-be-an-armed-c... no depth, and unavailable to US people
AnnikaL 4y ago
https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan?r=YQ https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invad... https://manifold.markets/a/china-will-not-launch-a-fullscale-i?r=YQ https://manifold.markets/a/china-will-not-launch-a-fullscale...

peter303 4y ago

I can see much of the paywalled article. But I hope it mentions the recent book Chip Wars about how TMSC became the worlds leading high end chip manufacturer. However even they are dependent on international expertise like Extreme Ultraviolet lasers. A Taiwan war could bring international semiconductor manufacturing to a full halt. We have seen previews in covid slowdowns and large 1990s earthquake,

stephc_int13 4y ago

There is one big problem with military force: training soldiers and officers is so difficult that real military powers always have to fight somewhere to "stay in shape" so to speak. A generation that never fought is likely to be confronted with a very harsh reality on the field. Luckily, China has not been fighting much during the past few decades.

tablespoon 4y ago
> Luckily, China has not been fighting much during the past few decades. On the other hand, neither has Taiwan.

newbie578 4y ago

I'll never understand how are there so many CCP apologetics on HN.. Just read some of the comments.. Especially when people try to reason that a democratic USA is worse for your personal benefit than a communist China.. I do wonder if those kind of people actually lived in a communist country..

ipnon 4y ago
For a variety of reasons CCP talking points are legitimately popular in PRC, and there are many PRC citizens in the tech industry.

ipnon 4y ago

From the perspective of the Taiwanese state, survival is the primary objective. In this case it is best to prolong the status quo where Taiwan is a political Rorschach test, obtaining the appearance of whatever you want depending on who looks. This satisfies the demands of Cross-Strait relations, internal politics, and the relationship with United States and other allies. Obtaining nuclear weapons or declaring independence makes no sense then because it jeopardizes national security, despite “making sense.” National security and sociopolitical logic are often at odds, by no means uniquely in Taiwan.

ipnon 4y ago

I just returned from Taiwan and to be frank Cross-Strait relations and escalation seems to take up little real estate in the public psyche, I would estimate about as much as it does in the United States if not less. The news cycle is more likely to be filled with stories of scooter crashes or the war in Ukraine than any perceived deterioration in relations with PRC.