15 ms·

2022 letter on life in China

262 points by jger15 4y ago

eimrine 4y ago
Friends spoke about three types of shock. First, the raw novelty of extended physical confinement. Second, the wonder of feeling food insecure in this age and in this city. Third, a disenchantment with government pronouncements.
yuy910616 4y ago
Feels weird to read about Dali in such context. As a 90s kid who grew up reading Mr Jin Yong's books, and the only thing I know about Dali is 六脉神剑
marianatom 4y ago
China is in a state of terminal decline and closing off to the world, barring any huge macro trend reversal (CCP loses power) - Factories are quickly moving out of China. Judging by the recent -40% export collapse from Hong Kong https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post-biggest-plunge-in-70-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post..., where Hong Kong serves as the main hub to transport stuff out of China, at least 40% of factory outputs have moved out of China. A few apple suppliers have confirmed the fact https://fortune.com/2023/02/28/airpods-maker-goertek-apple-suppliers-rushing-out-china/ https://fortune.com/2023/02/28/airpods-maker-goertek-apple-s.... Unlike the majority consensus on hacker news that "it's too hard to move out of China", almost half the factories that were in China in 2022 had already left. The factories that left and went to Southeast Asia are mainly from the Guangdong and Shenzhen regions. - Apple, a China laggard, has finally decided to pull the string and move itself and all its related supply chain out of China. Tesla is building its next big factory in Mexico. Samsung has completely left China. Dell is asking all of its suppliers to move out of China. The list of technology multinationals leaving is increasing day by day. The age of China's hold on technological supply chain is over. - There's about 80% reduction in retail activities in China, 50% reduction in home prices, and 80% reduction in labor demands. Judging from on the ground testimonials from social media in China, such as https://www.youtube.com/@realchina https://www.youtube.com/@realchina, https://www.youtube.com/@baixingzhengxiang https://www.youtube.com/@baixingzhengxiang, https://www.youtube.com/@XMKZG666 https://www.youtube.com/@XMKZG666, https://www.youtube.com/@ZGQSL https://www.youtube.com/@ZGQSL (need to understand mandarin to view). There are millions of unemployed young men walking the city streets, and millions that have gave up and returned to the country side to farm. There are people with entire savings lost in real estate and small business. It's a very volatile situation. - China's unwavering decision to be friends with Russia with "no limit" is slow changing into "directly giving military aids". US and EU is threatening sanctions on China for this, something that most on this board would consider impossible a year ago.
- mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
  I wonder what happens when Western megacorps run out of third world to put their factories in.
  - mostlysimilar 4y ago
    Hopefully put them in their home countries.
  - satvikpendem 4y ago
    That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. I was talking with someone a few years ago who is from one of these third world countries who lamented that corporations were coming in. I asked them whether they thought the people who worked there would prefer a relatively stable factory job over backbreaking farm work, factory jobs which usually pay more than the average wage of the area anyway in order to entice people to start working there. Free trade is good.
    - bryanrasmussen 4y ago
      >That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. maybe climate changes makes lots of hotter countries unlivable.
  - throwaway4good 4y ago
    Foreign companies in China will probably do fine as they live in the real world and not in the wild world of politics and speculation. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions Trade between the US and China hit a record high last year even as their diplomatic relations deteriorated. Imports and exports between the two countries totalled $690.6bn (£572.6bn) in 2022, official figures show.
    - mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
      Really not sure what trade relations between the US and China has to do with the very general strategic practice of placing factories in countries with low wages and limited worker rights, in order to cut costs.
ETHisso2017 4y ago
Not one mention of the tech sanctions placed on China, but so much focus on COVID controls. Easy to see where this author's bread is buttered
dmitriid 4y ago
If there's a seemingly "free region" that everyone knows about and deflects to, you can be 100% sure that the state knows about it, knows everyone who "deflected" there, and keeps tabs on everyone. A smart authoritarian government will have these "free" zones as a pressure release valve: - Most active dissidents jailed - Active dissidents allowed to flee the country - Somewhat active ones allowed to "flee the regime to the free-thinking zones far from government control"
- rippercushions 4y ago
  It's not a "free" region, just a remote, poor province where the central government is less relevant. As the Chinese say, 山高皇帝远: the mountains are high and the emperor is far away. If there was a genuine insurgency, as in Xinjiang and Tibet, the central government does get involved and stomps down hard.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    I heard it as 天高皇帝远. Just change mountain 山 for sky 天 (and probably meaning heaven where the gods live).
    - abudabi123 4y ago
      天 (and probably meaning heaven where the gods live). A grounding would be to visit Mount Tai and see the clouds beneath you when the weather conditions are just right. You have the same picture looking out the window of a Boeing 737max8. Anyway the ruler and ruling elites used to perform ceremonies on Mount Tai, poeticly gods living in heaven. 天 looks a bit like the picture postcards of Mount Fuji from various angles.
  - dmitriid 4y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35029186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35029186
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  I think people overestimate how authoritarian China is. Not in the good sense, but in the central government has limitations in what it can pay attention to (large country, lots of local governments, not a lot of police, etc...). Truth is, China can be a very free place at the same time it is restrictive (easy to break laws and not get caught, hard to hand out fliers in public criticizing the government...at least in Beijing).
blindriver 4y ago
The title is so mundane, and the first dozen paragraphs weren't very interesting, but I'm very glad to have persevered through it. His first-hand account of COVID in China was one of the most interesting I've read in a very long time. It was great! If he could create a separate, edited version focusing on just COVID in China, it would be newspaper/magazine worthy!
- netsharc 4y ago
  What an interesting piece of writing! Even after you think it's ended, he starts writing about the food he had. It's inspiring me to pay more attention to the little things in life (like having interesting meals so I can write/talk about it later...).
- netsharc 4y ago
  Looking around his site, he did write about Covid in China in magazines, one article in April 2020[1], curiously entitled "Life After COVID-19", and one in April 2022, during/after the Shanghai lockdowns. [1] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the-view-from-beijing.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the... [2] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/locked-down-in-shanghai.htm https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/locked-down-in-shang...
- chucknthem 4y ago
  I have a rare reaction in this HN crowd. I found the first half completely fascinating. I was born in Yunnan and familiar with some of the region, but left at an early age with little memory of it now. It’s surreal to see this remote region of China written about in English this way. Reading it makes me yearn to visit and see everything for myself!
  - xwolfi 4y ago
    Heh im French, and when time came to emigrate because I had become fluent in English and tired of France, the choice between the US and China was trivial: I chose China. It's more atheist, safer, more optimistic generally. I think we ignore it right now, but there s a little migration wave towards China that goes beyond "rich executive parachuted in Shanghai branch", and while we re far from democracy or any kind of "Chinese dream", well, I think I ended up much much better in China than I would have in the US... China is frigging great, the people are amazing, and we all will build this country despite the communists and the americans doing all they can to fuck it up :D Come back!
awinter-py 4y ago
props for citing any scott book other than seeing like a state the word 'legible' doesn't appear here once
kilgnad 4y ago
>The Chinese state is usually levelheaded; but every so often it succumbs to a manic episode, in which it grips the population, not relenting until it has shaken them out of their pots for backyard steel furnaces, out of their schools for class struggle, or out of their minds for dynamic zero clearing. What happened here isn't a case of the government going insane. What happened here is the case of the government making a hypothesis and then being completely wrong about the hypothesis. China isn't the only country that has been wrong. Parts of the US was definitely wrong about the pandemic in the initial stages and they suffered for it as a result. If omnicron turned out to be as lethal as ebola or equivalent than China took the right action. That is really all there is too it. They took appropriate action for a coming disaster and they turned out to be wrong about the disaster. The interesting thing here is not the fact that China was wrong. The interesting thing is that if China was right, then China is literally the only first world country with the capability to execute these drastic measures at a massive scale. From these massive lock downs to the creation of hospitals to deal with the fallout in mere weeks... illustrates the true controversies between authoritarian and democratic governments. As a US citizen I grew up indoctrinated on freedom and democracy. But the truth is actually not so black and white. Either way I know which government I'd rather be under if a zombie outbreak broke out.
- jddj 4y ago
  There's a bit of a glaring omission here. They persisted with covid 0 well into mid-late 22. It was very clear 2 and a half years into the pandemic that covid was not ebola. Hard-line initially is defensible, rationalizable. Later not so much. The other conclusions seem off too. Other Asian and South Pacific countries demonstrated their willingness to lock down and turn more authoritarian in the face of an unknown threat. They pivoted though.
  - kilgnad 4y ago
    >They persisted with covid 0 well into mid-late 22. It was very clear 2 and a half years into the pandemic that covid was not ebola. It was not clear what omicron was. Anyway I don't entirely blame them for maintaining the hardline even well past the advent of conflicting evidence. This is actually normal human behavior. People cannot flip their opinions and beliefs in the exact instant they are presented with opposing evidence. Humans just don't work this way. There's no individual or government that will reverse a policy and admit a mistake instantly. Literally not one. It's not right, but I don't expect any other form of behavior from a human or humans running an organization. >The other conclusions seem off too. Other Asian and South Pacific countries demonstrated their willingness to lock down and turn more authoritarian in the face of an unknown threat. They pivoted though. Naw not at the scale of China. It's easy for a small island to execute lockdown. It's extremely hard for a landmass as large as china to execute the same thing.
shadowofneptune 4y ago
Reading through the 2021 note, it's quite a change of tone. > Whereas Beijing is hit hard by every domestic outbreak, Shanghai hasn’t had many cases while being the least restrictive city in the country. It’s hard for us fresh arrivals not to smirk at our friends in the north each time we read about new restrictions in Beijing. I can't help but feel a sense of betrayal in his words. He's very clear in these notes that he feels China is creatively stunted, top-heavy, repressive, yet is still capable of great things. The end of zero-covid was an abrupt end to such a prokect.
roenxi 4y ago
It is worth reflecting that the bureaucrats in China are probably of a higher quality than their colleagues in the west. The difference in the COVID response is mainly down to how much power each group had.
- pewpew2020 4y ago
  >>> It is worth reflecting that the bureaucrats in China are probably of a higher quality than their colleagues in the west Please come to china and evaluate their efficacy, you will never go back :)
dirtyid 4y ago
Glad Dan decided to keep writing these these letters. >I acknowledge that my views may be too colored by the resentments of Shanghainese around me; and that I might be wrongfooted in my assessments. And despite being one of the better writers in the expat bubble, also self aware enough to acknowledge PRC like any other country has their (regional) bubbles whose experiences he may not be privy too.
deleted 4y ago
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ggm 4y ago
Absolutely fascinating. It suggests that the party has overtly broken the compact with the people, to keep them safe and offer prosperity for a price of social conformity. What's left works by limping along but another privilege gone each time reinforces that the future may not be better than the past. An internal struggle in the party for power has "wrecked the joint" for everyone else. I think they've made a mistake. It may not wreak havoc now but future cohorts may be less willing to be part of a one party state that breaks its internal promise so severely. The long term excess deaths will echo in education, economic and defence outcomes. Claiming victim status or launching out to reclaim Taiwan may well happen, but also may not work: people have a strong "fool me twice" reaction, and the diaspora talk to people at home, Great firewall or not. There's not a lot the state can do about it. The idea of fringe cities and hill towns in the provinces as "pressure relief valves" the central authorities accept in some sense, reminded me of Ira Levin's "this perfect day" and the hidden maps to sanctuary islands for the rebellious. If I were in the party, I'd be very worried about "quiet quitting". They sort of caused it.
yeetaway1111 4y ago
It is beautiful in my opinion how we in Europe and USA stan, cheer and celebrate those Chinese brave resisters of COVID regime, but when the same people see someone doing same in Europe or USA they want to put them in a camp. And no it is not beautiful it is actually fucking disgusting.
dylanzhangdev 4y ago
As a developer in China, I am re-strengthening my English, and I hope to have the opportunity to find a job in Japan and immigrate. I want free access to information and I want my daughter to have a life of safety and choice. Before the COVID, I didn't have this idea. After the COVID is over, I can't wait to leave. I'm pessimistic about the future here. As a small, ordinary person, I can't change anything, I can only change myself.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  I don't think you're alone, considering child births dropped in halve in China. They can not protest, but that seems to signify a severe drop in confidence in the government. As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. If you want to talk sometimes, let me know. I'm interested about what's it like there at the moment ( and you can practice your English in the mean time). Ps. Just mentioning, as everywhere, CCP could be monitoring here. It's a popular site...
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. Casualization != correlation. People banged a lot back then as they were stuck in home with money in their pockets and nothing to do outside, and getting cheap loans for real estate was not a problem, so having kids didn't seem like a bad decision, not because they had more confidence in their government. Though during covid and lockdowns a lot of couples also broke up. This trend has rapidly came to a halt in 2022 to 2203, with the war in Ukraine, inflation, high mortgage rates, insane energy bills, high food prices, exploding costs of rents and buying real estate, unavailable housing, longer waiting times in the healthcare system and a shortage of staff, layoffs, hiring freezes or stagnating wages in the private sector, etc. With the way things happened last in the last 12 months, average people really lost hope in the government, the economy and in the future and aren't rushing to have kids at all. Though I'm only talking about Europe, not "the west". Maybe things might be different elsewhere like US, Canada or Australia.
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
travisgriggs 4y ago
Naive western question here. You see headlines about this type of person quietly dissapearing. But it's not clear to me how real or common that is. Is this guy likely to end up incarcerated for this kind of post?
- Symbiote 4y ago
  Does this type of person disappear? He didn't attend the protests except to spectate, and he writes in English. I'm not sure that he's a Chinese citizen. Far easier to deny a new visa if they don't like him.
- lozenge 4y ago
  You can say anything in China as long as you don't question the legitimacy of the Party's right to govern. The people who get disappeared are people who organize protests or try to sue the government. Not people who just attend protests. People who distribute VPNs, not mere users of VPNs. And ethnic minorities.
  - lazyweb 4y ago
    That's a very big AND.
baxtr 4y ago
> China has superb entrepreneurs and artists who could bring the national glory that Xi craves only if they were allowed to do their creative work. Tight controls to control outcomes will inevitably destroy creativity and thus economic growth. This will backfire enormously. So China will fall back mit because it’s lacks intelligent and capable people, but because it won’t let these people do what they want to do freely.
deleted 4y ago
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remarkEon 4y ago
This was a wild read. It started out as (more or less) an essay on how geography can and does influence how likely it is that you get dissidents living in your political environment, transitioned to how the Chinese State handled the lock downs, connected that with commentary on the likelihood Xi maintains or expands his power and influence, and then called back to the first part to tie everything in a neat little bow. Very, very well done.
m0llusk 4y ago
Very interesting reading, but > ... and I share the government’s hostility towards video games ... Yikes!
- swalling 4y ago
  The sentiment is understandably scary and totalitarian in nature, but the consequences of the extreme American predilection toward individual choice has indisputable negative consequences at the population level. Video games are a leading explanation for why American men are increasingly satisfied to not work (https://w.wiki/6Qck https://w.wiki/6Qck). Video games and TikTok aren't even the worst of it. The progressive American agenda in drugs is towards decriminalization. States like Oregon are at the vanguard of this (https://w.wiki/6Qcq https://w.wiki/6Qcq), and the impact years later is widely seen as contributing to an epidemic of crime, homelessness, and bad health outcomes. China is the leading source of the worst synthetic drugs like fentanyl and meth (https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs-control-fentanyl-methamphetamines-and-precursors/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs...). Of course, the correct response is to not go the totalitarian control route, but to retain the flexibility and creativity that American independence fosters, invest in positive countermeasures (CHIPs act investment in manufacturing employment, drug treatment and diversion), and heavily regulate industries prone to create negative externalities.
dekhn 4y ago
If you're curious why the monks slip a picture of the Dalai Lama behind the Panchen Lama, it's because the Chinese government kidnapped and hid the Dalai Lama's selected successor and replaced him with a stooge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedhun_Choekyi_Nyima https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedhun_Choekyi_Nyima Really quite extraordinary.

262 points by jger15 4y ago

Friends spoke about three types of shock. First, the raw novelty of extended physical confinement. Second, the wonder of feeling food insecure in this age and in this city. Third, a disenchantment with government pronouncements.

yuy910616 4y ago

Feels weird to read about Dali in such context. As a 90s kid who grew up reading Mr Jin Yong's books, and the only thing I know about Dali is 六脉神剑

marianatom 4y ago

China is in a state of terminal decline and closing off to the world, barring any huge macro trend reversal (CCP loses power) - Factories are quickly moving out of China. Judging by the recent -40% export collapse from Hong Kong https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post-biggest-plunge-in-70-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Hong-Kong-exports-post..., where Hong Kong serves as the main hub to transport stuff out of China, at least 40% of factory outputs have moved out of China. A few apple suppliers have confirmed the fact https://fortune.com/2023/02/28/airpods-maker-goertek-apple-suppliers-rushing-out-china/ https://fortune.com/2023/02/28/airpods-maker-goertek-apple-s.... Unlike the majority consensus on hacker news that "it's too hard to move out of China", almost half the factories that were in China in 2022 had already left. The factories that left and went to Southeast Asia are mainly from the Guangdong and Shenzhen regions. - Apple, a China laggard, has finally decided to pull the string and move itself and all its related supply chain out of China. Tesla is building its next big factory in Mexico. Samsung has completely left China. Dell is asking all of its suppliers to move out of China. The list of technology multinationals leaving is increasing day by day. The age of China's hold on technological supply chain is over. - There's about 80% reduction in retail activities in China, 50% reduction in home prices, and 80% reduction in labor demands. Judging from on the ground testimonials from social media in China, such as https://www.youtube.com/@realchina https://www.youtube.com/@realchina, https://www.youtube.com/@baixingzhengxiang https://www.youtube.com/@baixingzhengxiang, https://www.youtube.com/@XMKZG666 https://www.youtube.com/@XMKZG666, https://www.youtube.com/@ZGQSL https://www.youtube.com/@ZGQSL (need to understand mandarin to view). There are millions of unemployed young men walking the city streets, and millions that have gave up and returned to the country side to farm. There are people with entire savings lost in real estate and small business. It's a very volatile situation. - China's unwavering decision to be friends with Russia with "no limit" is slow changing into "directly giving military aids". US and EU is threatening sanctions on China for this, something that most on this board would consider impossible a year ago.

mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
I wonder what happens when Western megacorps run out of third world to put their factories in.
- mostlysimilar 4y ago
  Hopefully put them in their home countries.
- satvikpendem 4y ago
  That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. I was talking with someone a few years ago who is from one of these third world countries who lamented that corporations were coming in. I asked them whether they thought the people who worked there would prefer a relatively stable factory job over backbreaking farm work, factory jobs which usually pay more than the average wage of the area anyway in order to entice people to start working there. Free trade is good.
  - bryanrasmussen 4y ago
    >That means wages have equalized in every country, which is a good thing. maybe climate changes makes lots of hotter countries unlivable.
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  Foreign companies in China will probably do fine as they live in the real world and not in the wild world of politics and speculation. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64563855 US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions Trade between the US and China hit a record high last year even as their diplomatic relations deteriorated. Imports and exports between the two countries totalled $690.6bn (£572.6bn) in 2022, official figures show.
  - mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
    Really not sure what trade relations between the US and China has to do with the very general strategic practice of placing factories in countries with low wages and limited worker rights, in order to cut costs.

ETHisso2017 4y ago

Not one mention of the tech sanctions placed on China, but so much focus on COVID controls. Easy to see where this author's bread is buttered

dmitriid 4y ago

If there's a seemingly "free region" that everyone knows about and deflects to, you can be 100% sure that the state knows about it, knows everyone who "deflected" there, and keeps tabs on everyone. A smart authoritarian government will have these "free" zones as a pressure release valve: - Most active dissidents jailed - Active dissidents allowed to flee the country - Somewhat active ones allowed to "flee the regime to the free-thinking zones far from government control"

rippercushions 4y ago
It's not a "free" region, just a remote, poor province where the central government is less relevant. As the Chinese say, 山高皇帝远: the mountains are high and the emperor is far away. If there was a genuine insurgency, as in Xinjiang and Tibet, the central government does get involved and stomps down hard.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  I heard it as 天高皇帝远. Just change mountain 山 for sky 天 (and probably meaning heaven where the gods live).
  - abudabi123 4y ago
    天 (and probably meaning heaven where the gods live). A grounding would be to visit Mount Tai and see the clouds beneath you when the weather conditions are just right. You have the same picture looking out the window of a Boeing 737max8. Anyway the ruler and ruling elites used to perform ceremonies on Mount Tai, poeticly gods living in heaven. 天 looks a bit like the picture postcards of Mount Fuji from various angles.
- dmitriid 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35029186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35029186
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
I think people overestimate how authoritarian China is. Not in the good sense, but in the central government has limitations in what it can pay attention to (large country, lots of local governments, not a lot of police, etc...). Truth is, China can be a very free place at the same time it is restrictive (easy to break laws and not get caught, hard to hand out fliers in public criticizing the government...at least in Beijing).

blindriver 4y ago

The title is so mundane, and the first dozen paragraphs weren't very interesting, but I'm very glad to have persevered through it. His first-hand account of COVID in China was one of the most interesting I've read in a very long time. It was great! If he could create a separate, edited version focusing on just COVID in China, it would be newspaper/magazine worthy!

netsharc 4y ago
What an interesting piece of writing! Even after you think it's ended, he starts writing about the food he had. It's inspiring me to pay more attention to the little things in life (like having interesting meals so I can write/talk about it later...).
netsharc 4y ago
Looking around his site, he did write about Covid in China in magazines, one article in April 2020[1], curiously entitled "Life After COVID-19", and one in April 2022, during/after the Shanghai lockdowns. [1] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the-view-from-beijing.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the... [2] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/locked-down-in-shanghai.htm https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/locked-down-in-shang...
chucknthem 4y ago
I have a rare reaction in this HN crowd. I found the first half completely fascinating. I was born in Yunnan and familiar with some of the region, but left at an early age with little memory of it now. It’s surreal to see this remote region of China written about in English this way. Reading it makes me yearn to visit and see everything for myself!
- xwolfi 4y ago
  Heh im French, and when time came to emigrate because I had become fluent in English and tired of France, the choice between the US and China was trivial: I chose China. It's more atheist, safer, more optimistic generally. I think we ignore it right now, but there s a little migration wave towards China that goes beyond "rich executive parachuted in Shanghai branch", and while we re far from democracy or any kind of "Chinese dream", well, I think I ended up much much better in China than I would have in the US... China is frigging great, the people are amazing, and we all will build this country despite the communists and the americans doing all they can to fuck it up :D Come back!

awinter-py 4y ago

props for citing any scott book other than seeing like a state the word 'legible' doesn't appear here once

kilgnad 4y ago

>The Chinese state is usually levelheaded; but every so often it succumbs to a manic episode, in which it grips the population, not relenting until it has shaken them out of their pots for backyard steel furnaces, out of their schools for class struggle, or out of their minds for dynamic zero clearing. What happened here isn't a case of the government going insane. What happened here is the case of the government making a hypothesis and then being completely wrong about the hypothesis. China isn't the only country that has been wrong. Parts of the US was definitely wrong about the pandemic in the initial stages and they suffered for it as a result. If omnicron turned out to be as lethal as ebola or equivalent than China took the right action. That is really all there is too it. They took appropriate action for a coming disaster and they turned out to be wrong about the disaster. The interesting thing here is not the fact that China was wrong. The interesting thing is that if China was right, then China is literally the only first world country with the capability to execute these drastic measures at a massive scale. From these massive lock downs to the creation of hospitals to deal with the fallout in mere weeks... illustrates the true controversies between authoritarian and democratic governments. As a US citizen I grew up indoctrinated on freedom and democracy. But the truth is actually not so black and white. Either way I know which government I'd rather be under if a zombie outbreak broke out.

jddj 4y ago
There's a bit of a glaring omission here. They persisted with covid 0 well into mid-late 22. It was very clear 2 and a half years into the pandemic that covid was not ebola. Hard-line initially is defensible, rationalizable. Later not so much. The other conclusions seem off too. Other Asian and South Pacific countries demonstrated their willingness to lock down and turn more authoritarian in the face of an unknown threat. They pivoted though.
- kilgnad 4y ago
  >They persisted with covid 0 well into mid-late 22. It was very clear 2 and a half years into the pandemic that covid was not ebola. It was not clear what omicron was. Anyway I don't entirely blame them for maintaining the hardline even well past the advent of conflicting evidence. This is actually normal human behavior. People cannot flip their opinions and beliefs in the exact instant they are presented with opposing evidence. Humans just don't work this way. There's no individual or government that will reverse a policy and admit a mistake instantly. Literally not one. It's not right, but I don't expect any other form of behavior from a human or humans running an organization. >The other conclusions seem off too. Other Asian and South Pacific countries demonstrated their willingness to lock down and turn more authoritarian in the face of an unknown threat. They pivoted though. Naw not at the scale of China. It's easy for a small island to execute lockdown. It's extremely hard for a landmass as large as china to execute the same thing.

shadowofneptune 4y ago

Reading through the 2021 note, it's quite a change of tone. > Whereas Beijing is hit hard by every domestic outbreak, Shanghai hasn’t had many cases while being the least restrictive city in the country. It’s hard for us fresh arrivals not to smirk at our friends in the north each time we read about new restrictions in Beijing. I can't help but feel a sense of betrayal in his words. He's very clear in these notes that he feels China is creatively stunted, top-heavy, repressive, yet is still capable of great things. The end of zero-covid was an abrupt end to such a prokect.

roenxi 4y ago

It is worth reflecting that the bureaucrats in China are probably of a higher quality than their colleagues in the west. The difference in the COVID response is mainly down to how much power each group had.

pewpew2020 4y ago
>>> It is worth reflecting that the bureaucrats in China are probably of a higher quality than their colleagues in the west Please come to china and evaluate their efficacy, you will never go back :)

dirtyid 4y ago

Glad Dan decided to keep writing these these letters. >I acknowledge that my views may be too colored by the resentments of Shanghainese around me; and that I might be wrongfooted in my assessments. And despite being one of the better writers in the expat bubble, also self aware enough to acknowledge PRC like any other country has their (regional) bubbles whose experiences he may not be privy too.

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ggm 4y ago

Absolutely fascinating. It suggests that the party has overtly broken the compact with the people, to keep them safe and offer prosperity for a price of social conformity. What's left works by limping along but another privilege gone each time reinforces that the future may not be better than the past. An internal struggle in the party for power has "wrecked the joint" for everyone else. I think they've made a mistake. It may not wreak havoc now but future cohorts may be less willing to be part of a one party state that breaks its internal promise so severely. The long term excess deaths will echo in education, economic and defence outcomes. Claiming victim status or launching out to reclaim Taiwan may well happen, but also may not work: people have a strong "fool me twice" reaction, and the diaspora talk to people at home, Great firewall or not. There's not a lot the state can do about it. The idea of fringe cities and hill towns in the provinces as "pressure relief valves" the central authorities accept in some sense, reminded me of Ira Levin's "this perfect day" and the hidden maps to sanctuary islands for the rebellious. If I were in the party, I'd be very worried about "quiet quitting". They sort of caused it.

yeetaway1111 4y ago

It is beautiful in my opinion how we in Europe and USA stan, cheer and celebrate those Chinese brave resisters of COVID regime, but when the same people see someone doing same in Europe or USA they want to put them in a camp. And no it is not beautiful it is actually fucking disgusting.

dylanzhangdev 4y ago

As a developer in China, I am re-strengthening my English, and I hope to have the opportunity to find a job in Japan and immigrate. I want free access to information and I want my daughter to have a life of safety and choice. Before the COVID, I didn't have this idea. After the COVID is over, I can't wait to leave. I'm pessimistic about the future here. As a small, ordinary person, I can't change anything, I can only change myself.

NicoJuicy 4y ago
I don't think you're alone, considering child births dropped in halve in China. They can not protest, but that seems to signify a severe drop in confidence in the government. As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. If you want to talk sometimes, let me know. I'm interested about what's it like there at the moment ( and you can practice your English in the mean time). Ps. Just mentioning, as everywhere, CCP could be monitoring here. It's a popular site...
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. Casualization != correlation. People banged a lot back then as they were stuck in home with money in their pockets and nothing to do outside, and getting cheap loans for real estate was not a problem, so having kids didn't seem like a bad decision, not because they had more confidence in their government. Though during covid and lockdowns a lot of couples also broke up. This trend has rapidly came to a halt in 2022 to 2203, with the war in Ukraine, inflation, high mortgage rates, insane energy bills, high food prices, exploding costs of rents and buying real estate, unavailable housing, longer waiting times in the healthcare system and a shortage of staff, layoffs, hiring freezes or stagnating wages in the private sector, etc. With the way things happened last in the last 12 months, average people really lost hope in the government, the economy and in the future and aren't rushing to have kids at all. Though I'm only talking about Europe, not "the west". Maybe things might be different elsewhere like US, Canada or Australia.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago

travisgriggs 4y ago

Naive western question here. You see headlines about this type of person quietly dissapearing. But it's not clear to me how real or common that is. Is this guy likely to end up incarcerated for this kind of post?

Symbiote 4y ago
Does this type of person disappear? He didn't attend the protests except to spectate, and he writes in English. I'm not sure that he's a Chinese citizen. Far easier to deny a new visa if they don't like him.
lozenge 4y ago
You can say anything in China as long as you don't question the legitimacy of the Party's right to govern. The people who get disappeared are people who organize protests or try to sue the government. Not people who just attend protests. People who distribute VPNs, not mere users of VPNs. And ethnic minorities.
- lazyweb 4y ago
  That's a very big AND.

baxtr 4y ago

> China has superb entrepreneurs and artists who could bring the national glory that Xi craves only if they were allowed to do their creative work. Tight controls to control outcomes will inevitably destroy creativity and thus economic growth. This will backfire enormously. So China will fall back mit because it’s lacks intelligent and capable people, but because it won’t let these people do what they want to do freely.

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remarkEon 4y ago

This was a wild read. It started out as (more or less) an essay on how geography can and does influence how likely it is that you get dissidents living in your political environment, transitioned to how the Chinese State handled the lock downs, connected that with commentary on the likelihood Xi maintains or expands his power and influence, and then called back to the first part to tie everything in a neat little bow. Very, very well done.

m0llusk 4y ago

Very interesting reading, but > ... and I share the government’s hostility towards video games ... Yikes!

swalling 4y ago
The sentiment is understandably scary and totalitarian in nature, but the consequences of the extreme American predilection toward individual choice has indisputable negative consequences at the population level. Video games are a leading explanation for why American men are increasingly satisfied to not work (https://w.wiki/6Qck https://w.wiki/6Qck). Video games and TikTok aren't even the worst of it. The progressive American agenda in drugs is towards decriminalization. States like Oregon are at the vanguard of this (https://w.wiki/6Qcq https://w.wiki/6Qcq), and the impact years later is widely seen as contributing to an epidemic of crime, homelessness, and bad health outcomes. China is the leading source of the worst synthetic drugs like fentanyl and meth (https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs-control-fentanyl-methamphetamines-and-precursors/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs...). Of course, the correct response is to not go the totalitarian control route, but to retain the flexibility and creativity that American independence fosters, invest in positive countermeasures (CHIPs act investment in manufacturing employment, drug treatment and diversion), and heavily regulate industries prone to create negative externalities.

dekhn 4y ago

If you're curious why the monks slip a picture of the Dalai Lama behind the Panchen Lama, it's because the Chinese government kidnapped and hid the Dalai Lama's selected successor and replaced him with a stooge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedhun_Choekyi_Nyima https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedhun_Choekyi_Nyima Really quite extraordinary.