6 ms·

then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery.

selcuka 4y ago
> then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery. Reductio ad absurdum won't work here. There are ways to test a "low confidence" theory, and re-evaluate its confidence level. This is called science.
- philippejara 4y ago
  You aren't going to get any confirmation or material evidence until the chinese government allows it to happen, and with their initial reaction to the situation before the rest of the world kenw what was happening and their reaction to the WHO inquiries, odds are we'll never get anything aside from "low confidence". Science isn't a magic wand, its a process, and honestly assuming we do get access an investigation like this most likely wouldn't even involve the scientific method at all. If science was enough to determine the origin given current available knowledge it probably would've been solved already.
  - junofan 4y ago
    You can’t call spoliation “low confidence.”
wkat4242 4y ago
That's what China wants yes. But while this helps the CCP party save face, it doesn't help to move on with the investigation. It's not even about the blame. We investigate air crashes in such detail so we can prevent them from happening again. Of course with an even bigger event like this we should do the same. The pandemic has happened and no kind of blame or money can revert it. But we can try to learn everything about it that we can to stop the next one. I'm sure it was an accident but we need to know what happened. For this reason I really think China should cooperate with the investigators.
- landemva 4y ago
  Pilots are licensed and airframes are certified. Licenses can be revoked. Where are the personal civil and criminal penalties for the GoF staff?
  - roelschroeven 4y ago
    You're missing the point. The main purpose of airplane crash investigations is to find the cause and fix it so it doesn't happen again in the future. This is done mostly without placing blame on anyone, precisely because that leads to finding a scapegoat instead of finding and fixing a problem. Finding and fixing a problem is exactly what needs to happen here too.
- hsbauauvhabzb 4y ago
  On that basis does the actual cause even matter as opposed to mapping out likely vs unlikely caused? I’m sure air crash investigations would resolve many safety issues completely unrelated to the actual cause of a crash.
- officialjunk 4y ago
  let's remember that the US contributed the the funding of this research https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-function-risky-bat-virus-engineering-links-america-to-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-...
  - wkat4242 4y ago
    Assigning blame is not so important here. Finding out what happened is so it can be prevented from happening again. But the US could perhaps push for openness considering they contributed financially. Though I suspect they already have and failed.
kristopolous 4y ago
People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with. All of the theories had the properties of being convenient darlings of some pre-existing political faction. The most responsible thing is to claim ignorance on the origin story unless you have genuine, credentialed, expertise and analytical training for it and even then, those people choose their audiences and presentation carefully because of the unintended consequences. Those who refuse to fuel speculation on topics they are unqualified to comment on is by definition, absent and invisible. It's also a distraction. The real problem is the chain of decisions and coordinating made by hundreds of groups around the planet between say November and April that catalyzed this from a problem to a global catastrophe. That's really the focus here because an H5N1 mutation is potentially around the corner and that could be much much worse. It's dramatically affected egg supplies as you've probably seen at your local supermarket. A human uncontrolled outbreak would be a disaster. It's far more dangerous than covid. For instance, that's today's date: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON445 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... The first part (origin) has already happened, the second part about the management, that's the actual important stuff.
- wonderwonder 4y ago
  "People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with." You are right and thats the most fascinating / absurd part of this whole thing. Somehow wet market vs lab leak has political sides and people are emotionally invested in one over the other. Its crazy, lets just have the truth and move on, either way it came out of China and savaged the world. People don't want the lab leak theory to be true for the sole reason that Trump said it and they believe Trump is the devil. I am very much not a fan of Trump and saw his actions leading up to the election as a clear and present danger to our democracy but still have no emotional investment in one theory over another. I just want the truth. This is an example of how insane American politics have gotten over the last 8? years
  - jboy55 4y ago
    Do you need the truth though? In some ways the mere question on the origin of the virus is a political one. No one in the public has ever cared to have definitive proof where any virus came from before. The ability to point to a specific time and place is probably outside of our ability. A lab had it on Nov 1st, 2021. A lab worker brought it home, is that 100% proof that was the first infection? Or did the lab get it from a place where it was already infecting people? Finally, what do we do with the info? Is it just a, 'oh well, that's interesting'?

> then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery. Reductio ad absurdum won't work here. There are ways to test a "low confidence" theory, and re-evaluate its confidence level. This is called science.

philippejara 4y ago
You aren't going to get any confirmation or material evidence until the chinese government allows it to happen, and with their initial reaction to the situation before the rest of the world kenw what was happening and their reaction to the WHO inquiries, odds are we'll never get anything aside from "low confidence". Science isn't a magic wand, its a process, and honestly assuming we do get access an investigation like this most likely wouldn't even involve the scientific method at all. If science was enough to determine the origin given current available knowledge it probably would've been solved already.
- junofan 4y ago
  You can’t call spoliation “low confidence.”

wkat4242 4y ago

That's what China wants yes. But while this helps the CCP party save face, it doesn't help to move on with the investigation. It's not even about the blame. We investigate air crashes in such detail so we can prevent them from happening again. Of course with an even bigger event like this we should do the same. The pandemic has happened and no kind of blame or money can revert it. But we can try to learn everything about it that we can to stop the next one. I'm sure it was an accident but we need to know what happened. For this reason I really think China should cooperate with the investigators.

landemva 4y ago
Pilots are licensed and airframes are certified. Licenses can be revoked. Where are the personal civil and criminal penalties for the GoF staff?
- roelschroeven 4y ago
  You're missing the point. The main purpose of airplane crash investigations is to find the cause and fix it so it doesn't happen again in the future. This is done mostly without placing blame on anyone, precisely because that leads to finding a scapegoat instead of finding and fixing a problem. Finding and fixing a problem is exactly what needs to happen here too.
hsbauauvhabzb 4y ago
On that basis does the actual cause even matter as opposed to mapping out likely vs unlikely caused? I’m sure air crash investigations would resolve many safety issues completely unrelated to the actual cause of a crash.
officialjunk 4y ago
let's remember that the US contributed the the funding of this research https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-function-risky-bat-virus-engineering-links-america-to-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-...
- wkat4242 4y ago
  Assigning blame is not so important here. Finding out what happened is so it can be prevented from happening again. But the US could perhaps push for openness considering they contributed financially. Though I suspect they already have and failed.

kristopolous 4y ago

People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with. All of the theories had the properties of being convenient darlings of some pre-existing political faction. The most responsible thing is to claim ignorance on the origin story unless you have genuine, credentialed, expertise and analytical training for it and even then, those people choose their audiences and presentation carefully because of the unintended consequences. Those who refuse to fuel speculation on topics they are unqualified to comment on is by definition, absent and invisible. It's also a distraction. The real problem is the chain of decisions and coordinating made by hundreds of groups around the planet between say November and April that catalyzed this from a problem to a global catastrophe. That's really the focus here because an H5N1 mutation is potentially around the corner and that could be much much worse. It's dramatically affected egg supplies as you've probably seen at your local supermarket. A human uncontrolled outbreak would be a disaster. It's far more dangerous than covid. For instance, that's today's date: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2023-DON445 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... The first part (origin) has already happened, the second part about the management, that's the actual important stuff.

wonderwonder 4y ago
"People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with." You are right and thats the most fascinating / absurd part of this whole thing. Somehow wet market vs lab leak has political sides and people are emotionally invested in one over the other. Its crazy, lets just have the truth and move on, either way it came out of China and savaged the world. People don't want the lab leak theory to be true for the sole reason that Trump said it and they believe Trump is the devil. I am very much not a fan of Trump and saw his actions leading up to the election as a clear and present danger to our democracy but still have no emotional investment in one theory over another. I just want the truth. This is an example of how insane American politics have gotten over the last 8? years
- jboy55 4y ago
  Do you need the truth though? In some ways the mere question on the origin of the virus is a political one. No one in the public has ever cared to have definitive proof where any virus came from before. The ability to point to a specific time and place is probably outside of our ability. A lab had it on Nov 1st, 2021. A lab worker brought it home, is that 100% proof that was the first infection? Or did the lab get it from a place where it was already infecting people? Finally, what do we do with the info? Is it just a, 'oh well, that's interesting'?