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I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. If they considered it a security threat they would've downed it before it reached continental US. Ove

I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. If they considered it a security threat they would've downed it before it reached continental US. Overall it's a fair resolution. It's a good political move to raise public awareness of tensions with the PRC (you'd be surprised how many people don't know). Downing it is mostly symbollic and completes the safety narrative.

ikekkdcjkfke 4y ago
F35 signature probe
riskpreneurship 4y ago
Seems unlikely, considering the size of the payload and the presence of propellers to help it navigate.
chitowneats 4y ago
Were the balloons from China transiting over Guam and Hawaii also blown of course? There are enough of these incidents for it to not seem like a coincidence.
neuralRiot 4y ago
I’m not in the defense industry neither know how the Chinese spy agency works but I guess there are more covert ways to spy than sending a 20ft ballon half way around the world.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  One theory is that the Chinese know that. This could be them sending a message: "If you defend Taiwan, we can get over your heads cheaply and easily". The only casualties on the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast. I doubt that symbolism was lost on the military or the Biden administration.
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    That can't be the message. You saw how easy it was to down the balloon.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - chitowneats 4y ago
      It was easy to down one balloon during peace-time. You're right. Please see my comment further below for why that might not work in aggregate during a real military conflict. Edit: I'll paste it here in case it gets buried: I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1]. I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah. 1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-balloons-menaced-american-skies-during-world-war-ii-20230204-p5chvt.html https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...
      - breck 4y ago
        I thought the whole thing was blown out of proportion and was almost certainly a weather balloon mistake, but I forgot about that WWII anecdote, and you are absolutely right. The odds of it actually being related to military just went up a lot in my calculations.
      - luckylion 4y ago
        Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't you just need a single plane with a machine gun on board to take down hundreds of these if you cared to take them down? And you can spot them far, far away and take them down far away from the coast, can't you? I mean, they can't really do evasive maneuvers, they're not fast, they don't fight back, they're not armored, you wouldn't need super modern missiles.
- rtourn 4y ago
  I expected this to be some dude’s project that got blown out of proportion.
  - tcmart14 4y ago
    Thats why I am waiting in more info to come out and not jumping on the "evil Chinese spies" band wagon. It could be "evil chinese spies," but I also know there are communities like Ham Radio that people around the world have balloons they deploy. And yea, the DoD said it may be. But I think the DoD is still looking for WMDs in Iraq.
  - pkaye 4y ago
    There is report of another one across Costa Rica.
- ancientworldnow 4y ago
  The balloon diameter was more like 40-60 meters.
- SonicScrub 4y ago
  20ft payload. Making this a very large system as far as high altitude balloons are concerned. The balloon is about the size of a football field
  - barbariangrunge 4y ago
    So that is how many desktop computers worth of processing power? Or how many cars worth of sensor equipment? What did they need so much space/weight carrying capacity for?
- charlieyu1 4y ago
  But not many ways are as cheap and close to the ground if you don't care about being found out.
mrtksn 4y ago
It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era military drone that flew half of the EU without detection to crash far away from Ukraine. Maybe the world is not under complete surveillance just yet.
- rationalist 4y ago
  Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
    - rationalist 4y ago
      The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
      - sandworm101 4y ago
        Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...
matthewdgreen 4y ago
There is now a second one over Costa Rica. https://www.crhoy.com/mundo/un-segundo-globo-de-vigilancia-chino-sobrevuela-latinoamerica-dice-el-pentagono/ https://www.crhoy.com/mundo/un-segundo-globo-de-vigilancia-c...
thevagrant 4y ago
Why is everything a narrative these days? That word comes up with ridiculous frequency. Do we believe we are part of some kind of Truman show experiment? As for it being a weather balloon, it seems they must be floating a lot of these balloons lately to check the 'weather'.
- krapp 4y ago
  Yes, we are part of some kind of Truman show experiment. Every form of media you consume, which in aggregate forms much of your perception of the world at large and reality in general, is engineered to manipulate you with a narrative to serve someone's agenda, be that advertising, propaganda, psychological manipulation, addiction or manufactured consent.
  - lazyeye 4y ago
    This is true but has got absolutely nothing to do with whether the balloon is being used for spying or not.
    - chii 4y ago
      Without first hand, primary sources of information, the media and their dissemination of information (or lack thereof) is a form of manipulation to suite someone's agenda, and has a lot of analogs with the truman show. For example, nobody right now, except may be the US military, knows whether it's a real spy balloon, or really just a weather balloon. But the media reporting of it has framed it as a spy balloon with high probability.
      - lazyeye 4y ago
        Yes we can ignore the media because all the media is garbage, I agree on that. But I also believe that the the likelihood the balloon is being used for spying is probably pretty high.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
tzs 4y ago
> I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. Most experts seem to think that is unlikely because its payload was much larger than a weather balloon needs. It's also got some sort of maneuvering system that you don't find on most weather balloons, or even on most non-weather high altitude balloons. Generally, balloons either have no maneuverability at all, or they can go up and down. Since the wind often blows in different directions at different altitudes that gives the up and down ones some ability to control their course by going up or down to a layer going the right direction. But in the winter in the US there isn't that much variation. Right now for example its blowing east from around 4000 ft to something like 70000 ft or more. In the summer there is a lot more variation, so normally if you were trying to send a spy balloon over the US you'd want to do it in summer. Then you can use altitude changes to guide it or have it stay roughly over a target. A huge maneuverable balloon in winter in the US is something special.
- nineteen999 4y ago
  Surely it's not a very good spy balloon though if it can be observed from the ground with the naked eye ...
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  > Generally, balloons either have no maneuverability at all, or they can go up and down. Since the wind often blows in different directions at different altitudes that gives the up and down ones some ability to control their course by going up or down to a layer going the right direction. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the balloon was maneuvered by anything more than up and down control. But if you have a link I’d like to take a look? This is the best I could find so far: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinese-spy-balloon-has-unexpected-maneuverability/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinese-spy-ballo...

ikekkdcjkfke 4y ago

F35 signature probe

riskpreneurship 4y ago

Seems unlikely, considering the size of the payload and the presence of propellers to help it navigate.

chitowneats 4y ago

Were the balloons from China transiting over Guam and Hawaii also blown of course? There are enough of these incidents for it to not seem like a coincidence.

neuralRiot 4y ago

I’m not in the defense industry neither know how the Chinese spy agency works but I guess there are more covert ways to spy than sending a 20ft ballon half way around the world.

chitowneats 4y ago
One theory is that the Chinese know that. This could be them sending a message: "If you defend Taiwan, we can get over your heads cheaply and easily". The only casualties on the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast. I doubt that symbolism was lost on the military or the Biden administration.
- credit_guy 4y ago
  That can't be the message. You saw how easy it was to down the balloon.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    It was easy to down one balloon during peace-time. You're right. Please see my comment further below for why that might not work in aggregate during a real military conflict. Edit: I'll paste it here in case it gets buried: I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1]. I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah. 1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-balloons-menaced-american-skies-during-world-war-ii-20230204-p5chvt.html https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...
    - breck 4y ago
      I thought the whole thing was blown out of proportion and was almost certainly a weather balloon mistake, but I forgot about that WWII anecdote, and you are absolutely right. The odds of it actually being related to military just went up a lot in my calculations.
    - luckylion 4y ago
      Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't you just need a single plane with a machine gun on board to take down hundreds of these if you cared to take them down? And you can spot them far, far away and take them down far away from the coast, can't you? I mean, they can't really do evasive maneuvers, they're not fast, they don't fight back, they're not armored, you wouldn't need super modern missiles.
rtourn 4y ago
I expected this to be some dude’s project that got blown out of proportion.
- tcmart14 4y ago
  Thats why I am waiting in more info to come out and not jumping on the "evil Chinese spies" band wagon. It could be "evil chinese spies," but I also know there are communities like Ham Radio that people around the world have balloons they deploy. And yea, the DoD said it may be. But I think the DoD is still looking for WMDs in Iraq.
- pkaye 4y ago
  There is report of another one across Costa Rica.
ancientworldnow 4y ago
The balloon diameter was more like 40-60 meters.
SonicScrub 4y ago
20ft payload. Making this a very large system as far as high altitude balloons are concerned. The balloon is about the size of a football field
- barbariangrunge 4y ago
  So that is how many desktop computers worth of processing power? Or how many cars worth of sensor equipment? What did they need so much space/weight carrying capacity for?
charlieyu1 4y ago
But not many ways are as cheap and close to the ground if you don't care about being found out.

mrtksn 4y ago

It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era military drone that flew half of the EU without detection to crash far away from Ukraine. Maybe the world is not under complete surveillance just yet.

rationalist 4y ago
Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).
- mrtksn 4y ago
  Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
  - rationalist 4y ago
    The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
    - sandworm101 4y ago
      Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...

matthewdgreen 4y ago

There is now a second one over Costa Rica. https://www.crhoy.com/mundo/un-segundo-globo-de-vigilancia-chino-sobrevuela-latinoamerica-dice-el-pentagono/ https://www.crhoy.com/mundo/un-segundo-globo-de-vigilancia-c...

thevagrant 4y ago

Why is everything a narrative these days? That word comes up with ridiculous frequency. Do we believe we are part of some kind of Truman show experiment? As for it being a weather balloon, it seems they must be floating a lot of these balloons lately to check the 'weather'.

krapp 4y ago
Yes, we are part of some kind of Truman show experiment. Every form of media you consume, which in aggregate forms much of your perception of the world at large and reality in general, is engineered to manipulate you with a narrative to serve someone's agenda, be that advertising, propaganda, psychological manipulation, addiction or manufactured consent.
- lazyeye 4y ago
  This is true but has got absolutely nothing to do with whether the balloon is being used for spying or not.
  - chii 4y ago
    Without first hand, primary sources of information, the media and their dissemination of information (or lack thereof) is a form of manipulation to suite someone's agenda, and has a lot of analogs with the truman show. For example, nobody right now, except may be the US military, knows whether it's a real spy balloon, or really just a weather balloon. But the media reporting of it has framed it as a spy balloon with high probability.
    - lazyeye 4y ago
      Yes we can ignore the media because all the media is garbage, I agree on that. But I also believe that the the likelihood the balloon is being used for spying is probably pretty high.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

tzs 4y ago

> I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. Most experts seem to think that is unlikely because its payload was much larger than a weather balloon needs. It's also got some sort of maneuvering system that you don't find on most weather balloons, or even on most non-weather high altitude balloons. Generally, balloons either have no maneuverability at all, or they can go up and down. Since the wind often blows in different directions at different altitudes that gives the up and down ones some ability to control their course by going up or down to a layer going the right direction. But in the winter in the US there isn't that much variation. Right now for example its blowing east from around 4000 ft to something like 70000 ft or more. In the summer there is a lot more variation, so normally if you were trying to send a spy balloon over the US you'd want to do it in summer. Then you can use altitude changes to guide it or have it stay roughly over a target. A huge maneuverable balloon in winter in the US is something special.

nineteen999 4y ago
Surely it's not a very good spy balloon though if it can be observed from the ground with the naked eye ...
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
> Generally, balloons either have no maneuverability at all, or they can go up and down. Since the wind often blows in different directions at different altitudes that gives the up and down ones some ability to control their course by going up or down to a layer going the right direction. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the balloon was maneuvered by anything more than up and down control. But if you have a link I’d like to take a look? This is the best I could find so far: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinese-spy-balloon-has-unexpected-maneuverability/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinese-spy-ballo...