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Tesla’s 2022 Collapse Hits 69% After Deepest Selloff Since April

126 points by theflyingelvis 4y ago

sidcool 4y ago
Musk's Twitter antiques should not hurt Tesla.
- sli 4y ago
  That would be the case if he weren't in charge of both companies, but he is. The actions of a company's CEO reflects on the company, as it should. They want to pull all the strings, so they get to shoulder all the responsibility as well. If the CEO of a company you're invested in starts acting erratically, it doesn't matter where they're doing it, it's going to affect your investment.
- elihu 4y ago
  A huge part of Tesla's value is based on their brand. They have great manufacturing capabilities that incumbent automakers struggle to compete against, but if a large portion of their target market stops wanting to buy a Tesla because they feel like doing so is giving their endorsement to someone who behaves in erratic and alarming ways, then their cars aren't going to enjoy such a large profit margin going forward. They might make just as many cars as they would otherwise, but the business is worth less than it would be if they could sell at higher prices.
  - glass3 4y ago
    That erratic behavior could also be a means to shift the target market. If Musk and thus Tesla are no longer perceived as left then people on the right are able to buy Teslas without losing face.
    - tigershark 4y ago
      Yeah, of course coal-rolling maga hats can’t wait to buy an electric car.
      - kfarr 4y ago
        4D chess to get red states to buy electric cars
      - glass3 4y ago
        If somebody wants to drive their car with coal, it has to be an electric car. Apart from nostalgic maga hats, what's a better match for an electric car than a person who can make America great again by supporting state of the art technology? The opportunity is there. The future will tell how many of Musk's recent decisions were clever.
    - elihu 4y ago
      It's plausible. I don't know how Musk looks from the point of view of, say, a pro-Trump Republican, but from my own biased point of view he doesn't come across as a serious businessman with conservative or libertarian leanings, but rather as someone who has, for some reason, begun making unpredictable self-destructive decisions. I think he's probably losing a lot more potential customers than he's gaining. There may be a political aspect to it, but the way I look at it is that he's an ordinary fallible human. We all know people who would make a big mess of things if they took Musk's place, but we don't usually worry about them all that much (except maybe on their behalf) because their ability to help or harm other people is limited.
seydor 4y ago
[flagged]
JonathanBeuys 4y ago
I wonder how much Musks behavior on Twitter over the last months impacted the Tesla brand. A lot of people I know hesitate to take a seat on a plane, even for a week-long holiday. Having to read about Elon Jet and that Musk takes a whole plane to watch a football game certainly rubs them the wrong way. Censoring users at will for his own ego or his own benefit also seems to go against what intellectual tech enthusiasts value. A lot of his tweets seem cold-hearted, passive-aggressive towards minorities like immigrants and LGBT people. For the people who followed it (not sure if it is many of the Tesla target demographic), it must have been a change from "Smart free speech absolutist who works on accelerating the advent of sustainable energy to save the world" to "Unethical, narcissistic despot with ill will towards minorities".
- hrrsn 4y ago
  My mother has been in the market for a new car for the last few months. I was keen on a Tesla until the shitposter in chief took the reins. We bought an Audi last week instead.
  - alvah 4y ago
    Wait until you find out the history of Audi (and its parent company VW)
    - werdnapk 4y ago
      Any reason why people have to keep bringing this up? At this point, who really cares.
      - alvah 4y ago
        Audi or VW are poor choices if virtue signaling is the aim. Almost any other Western car company would have been better.
        FatActor 4y ago
        Comparing corporations from 80 years ago under a regime that was toppled to a shitty CEO from today is utterly meaningless. The point of conscientious spending is to affect change. Not buying an Audi today does not send a message to Nazi Germany because it no longer exists (and it wasn't even Audi, it was their predecessor). Not buying a Tesla today sends a message to Tesla, because it exists. Make sense?
georgeg23 4y ago
Elon is basically a defense contractor now (see Starshield). Chinese government is going to turn the screws.
- justapassenger 4y ago
  SpaceX was always a defense contractor. Their own payloads and military are bulk of the launches. I would be worried more about USA turning the screw. Elon is extremely close and exposed to their biggest adversary, China. I’m actually surprised he wasn’t forced out of spacex by the military by now.
  - paganel 4y ago
    And replace him with who? The bloated NASA thing? The guys from Detroit who saw their lunch eaten several times during the last few decades by foreign car companies? (that is if you treat the car industry as a strategic one, as I think the US military does). By the looks of it there are still some cooler heads at the Pentagon.
    - meepmorp 4y ago
      I think OP was just talking about removing him from SpaceX, not ditching SpaceX entirely. The company would be fine without him, it's run by Gwynne Shotwell anyway.
      - paganel 4y ago
        > The company would be fine without him I don't think that to be true on the middle to long term, things would just settle into a nice local maximum for SpaceX/Tesla as companies but most of the real innovation would be gone for good. Just look at Apple, they're a nice $2 trillion company but they've got nothing Earth-shattering since Jobs has been gone. To put it another way, without Musk there would have been no Starlink, which is an Earth-shattering thing in its own way (satellite internet for the masses is Earth-shattering). Without Starlink being possible the West wouldn't have had the same military results on the war front against Russia as it now has. Move Musk aside and who will come with the next Starlink? Later edit: Speaking of the car industry and its strategic value, we all know at this point that Henry Ford was literally a Nazi sympathiser and a Hitler groupie. That didn't stop him from doing business with Stalin's USSR since early in 1929, when the US hadn't established diplomatic relations with the Soviets just yet. If it hadn't been for Ford and for the American vehicles Stalin and USSR would have found it next to impossible to defeat Hitler and the Nazis a decade later. Stalin himself praised Henry Ford in 1944, i.e. after Ford's direct contacts with the Nazis in the late 1930s. > Stalin wrote to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, calling Henry Ford “one of the world’s greatest industrialists” and expressing the hope that “may God preserve him.” In other words, without the help of Nazi-loving Henry Ford most probably the Nazis wouldn't have been defeated. Like I said, hopefully there are still some cooler heads in the Pentagon who try to look at the middle to long term and try not to be influenced by the latest ideological scandals. [1] https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-signs-agreement-with-soviet-union https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-signs-agree...
hiddencost 4y ago
I wonder what margin call thresholds are for some loans collateralized by $TSLA...
- DavidPiper 4y ago
  Saw this earlier today (apologies for the eye-bleeding all-caps) - https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1607809970082299906?s=46&t=OUUvZ5hkrONcLFb5YXr22A https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1607809970082299906?s=46... Some interesting times ahead if we start seeing some mass sell-offs triggered.
  - babyshake 4y ago
    Is this essentially a stop-loss? It would seem that Cathie Woods is crazy for buying/holding at the top and selling now.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  $100? $50? Who is to say. Stop loss orders may well accelerate the drop if that should happen. And the lower it goes the more they will have to sell to keep up! That feedback loop could get quite interesting soon.
tzm 4y ago
Worth noting the Dow Jones U.S. Auto Manufacturers Index is down 62% YTD.
- fbdab103 4y ago
  What percentage of that is weighted to Tesla? I think looking at the major brands individually would be more informative.
  - wfme 4y ago
    1 Year TSLA: -69.93% GM: -41.66% FORD: -46.05% STLA: -26.47% 5 Years TSLA: 425.53% GM: -18.71% FORD: -10.33% STLA: -21.52%
    - tigershark 4y ago
      1 Month TSLA: -40%, GM: -15%, Ford: -18%, STLA: -7%
  - SilasX 4y ago
    I was able to find this, which lists each automaker's YTD change that's in the index. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-US-AUTOMOBILES-449429/components/ https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-US-AUTO... Tesla's is still clearly the worst, at -69%, but Ford and GM have -45 and -43% respectively. If it's market-cap weighted (I can't tell at a glance), TSLA will have outsized influence, at a current market cap of $344B vs Ford and GM at $45B and $47B, and those three together being about 90% of the index's market cap. Only three components of it are up for the year.
- ChuckMcM 4y ago
  GM down 42% Past year Ford (F) down 46% Past Year Chrysler/Jeep (Stellantis) down 26% Past Year Toyota (TM) down 27% Past year Mercedes (MGGYY) down 31% Past Year Lucid Group (LCID) down 84% Past Year Nissan (NSANY) Down 36% Past Year Tesla (TSLA) Down 71% Past Year Honda (HMC) Down 18% Past Year Volkswagon (VWAGY) Down 48% Past Year BMW (BMWYY) down 13% Past Year
prvc 4y ago
>threshold used is 69% This kind of snark is uncalled for in a purportedly serious domain like financial journalism.
- aaronbrethorst 4y ago
  C’mon https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/business/elon-musk-420-twitter-filing.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/business/elon-musk-420-tw... https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/did-you-know-that-all-of-tesla-s-products-are-acronymized-to-spell-sexy-cars/ https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/did-you-know-that-all...
  - prvc 4y ago
    His prerogative, and not theirs.
    - aaronbrethorst 4y ago
      C'mon https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/a-day-in-the-life-of-elon-musk-a-puerile-69-joke-and-being-sued-for-258-billion.html https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/a-day-in-t...
    - benatkin 4y ago
      It's his doing, and with the year about to end there probably won't be a conventional landmark like 75%
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
starik36 4y ago
> Analysts on average expect revenue to grow 54% in 2022 and 37% in 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That is some crazy growth still.
- babypuncher 4y ago
  It is, but Tesla's valuation was based on predictions of much bigger growth.
- pengaru 4y ago
  Is it really though? If you consider how few EVs there are on the roads relatively speaking, and of that small fraction only another fraction are Teslas... Assuming we're on the cusp of a global electrification of transportation, we should be looking at exponential growth. 54%->37% is the opposite of that.
  - starik36 4y ago
    Car is not something someone buys on a lark. It's a once a decade purchase at best. And you can get an EV from any manufacturer these days, so I'd still consider double digit growth pretty incredible. Azure had 33% growth a couple of quarters ago and financial analysts acted like they are on the verge of collapse.
- Fordec 4y ago
  A stock that never rose on fundamentals (Tesla stock at its peak valuation was more than GM and Ford combined, their fundamentals were never that good) will also fall regardless of fundamentals. If the argument is about Tesla stock was worth that because of future expectations, then this fall can just be equally described as based on future expectations. Tesla still has a 33.7 P/E ratio, it could still fall another 50% again before the valuation is "worth it" depending on what metric you personally decide to base your investments.
- jillesvangurp 4y ago
  The craziness is that this company is indeed still performing really well in terms of revenue and growth. And yet investors are selling their shares. Presumably at a loss. And probably it's a really good investment opportunity at this point. I actually bought some mor shares a few weeks ago. Short term that's obviously not working out for me but I have good hopes longer term. It's still a good market to be producing batteries and electrical vehicles in. Tesla is still a market leader in that market. They've got production capacity, supply chains, etc. working just fine with more capacity coming online. It's still growth market. Nothing has changed really other than people's perceptions. And those can change again. It does raise the question: why are people selling shares at a loss? Who are these people? Why are they panicking so much that they'll take the loss? It's not very rational behavior. Which suggests an answer that maybe there are some people with a financial interest in this manipulating the markets. Either way, I expect Elon Musk might be buying some shares back at a discount just to make a point. There has been talk of buying back shares by Tesla in any case so there is plenty of support for that among share holders. At the current prices of the shares, that might actually not be the worst way to spend a few billion. And slightly evil of Elon Musk as well. So, entirely in character. Sell shares to buy Twitter, cause chaos there, watch Tesla's stock price collapse, buy back some Tesla shares at a discount, stock price goes back up again and Tesla continues making money and growing like nothing happened. Win win. Maybe Twitter survives all this. Maybe it won't. But does it matter if he comes out making a profit?
Ozzie_osman 4y ago
I think the effects of social media on the brains of famous people who get stuck in that feedback loop, is akin to being on drugs. Same level of addiction, same deterioration of connection to reality.
- robmerki 4y ago
  Combining that with the feedback loop of being insanely wealthy can only spell disaster. Being ultra rich is a disease.
andrewstuart 4y ago
Hope Musk is getting $50,000,000,000 worth of joy from owning Twitter, or whatever it’s cost him directly and indirectly.
- code_biologist 4y ago
  It's not good to see money burn... but it's not every day you get to see a 44 billion dollar pile doused with arrogance gasoline go up in flames.
  - lolc 4y ago
    Why though? I welcome it! The pile could have been used to buy land and extract rent. But no, it was pissed away in a vanity project that is now feeding a robust alternative. That is great! More billionaires should do this and take their oligarch friends with them on the ride. Of course, the pile could also have been used to drive tech advancement. Yea, that'd been nice. Humanity might have gotten more out of it that way.
birdymcbird 4y ago
Is this really news or is it being posted as snark at Elon? Most of the market is down, outside of energy and defense sectors. Tech and tech related things have taken a massive hit. Tesla was massively overvalued on future sales. Given we going to a recession predicted as hard landing, its within reason this stock drops and more than Toyota, honda etc But sure, Tesla is suffering because elon is too focused on Twitter. feels more to me like corporate news media and progressive allies have a fight with elon. they wanted him to close the Twitter deal, then they were upset elon got rid of the woke crowd running the company. now now i keep hearing Twitter is about to collapse and Tesla is collapsing, all because of elon. i don’t buy this narrative. Nope. and from the corporate news media reports, i had a fairly negative perception of this guy until i saw his interviews and on some podcasts. he’s brash but ultimately he threatens publishing industry with what he might do at Twitter. corporate media fears him and almost has a 24/7 section devoted to him and his companies, just to get ahead in case he knives them like trump did.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > feels more to me like corporate news media and progressive allies have a fight with elon. The fact that it feels this way to you is exactly the problem. It's pointless to politicize a car company but that's what Musk has gone ahead and done. It's not helping Tesla's stock price and it's not helping Tesla sell cars. > they wanted him to close the Twitter deal Musk signed a binding agreement to buy Twitter and then spent six months trying to back out of the deal. When Musk realized a contract is a contract and he wasn't going to win in court, he finally closed the deal. No one has done this to him. He did it to himself.
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - clouddrover 4y ago
      Musk is too closely associated with the Tesla brand. The things the "Technoking" of Tesla does to make himself look bad also makes Tesla look bad. That's the practical reality of it whether you like it or not.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
lossolo 4y ago
TSLA -73.82 (-40.36%) past month only
- meepmorp 4y ago
  Half that (-$37) is in the last week, too
ent2022 4y ago
Me along with many others criticizing Elon Musk for about a decade but no one paid attention until things have become dire. How all masses including journalists missed this is beyond me
- meepmorp 4y ago
  Congratulations
pauljurczak 4y ago
You can defy gravity only so long...
jupp0r 4y ago
Anecdotal evidence, but I was planning to buy a Model 3 early next year mostly for in town driving with two small kids. Not going to happen anymore because of Elon openly spreading blatant conspiracy theories. Even if I didn't personally care, I feel like the brand has taken such a reputation hit. I might go for an Ionic 5 instead, need to do a test drive and some research. This makes me really sad because I used to admire Elon for being a CEO that really understood the technology that his companies create.
- thinking4real 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - leereeves 4y ago
    Just curious: why is parent comment [flagged] but not [dead]?
  - freejazz 4y ago
    How prescient that your post consists entirely of describing your own post.
AussieWog93 4y ago
Really bizarre that on a site where people from incredibly diverse backgrounds can have reasonable, adult discussions about topics like politics and religion, civil discourse breaks down as soon as someone says the phrase "Elon Musk".
yyyk 4y ago
The thing about Tesla is that short-sellers were right about the company being overvalued but wrong about the reasons people invested in Tesla. Tesla's FSD was obviously anything but; Tesla could have never gotten most of the EV market, unavoidable production limits made sure of that even before considering Tesla's patent stance (of not holding EV patents). However, many investors actually held Tesla as an 'ethical' climate-based contribution and never cared that much about profitability or hype or value. Musk was useful in promoting the brand by keeping it in the spotlight. Now, with other carmakers finally entering EV in force + Musk being, well, Musk, this contribution factor will strongly reduce. The risk now is overcorrection in the other direction - Tesla is too firmly established to go away.
sourcecodeplz 4y ago
He really needs to let go of Tesla. As that investor said, he will always be the father.
college_physics 4y ago
People focus on the Musk (key person risk) factor, but there is the broader tech factor (overhyping / faking what is being offered), the macro interest rates factor (unwinding risky bets) and possibly also the sector specific EV factor (fitness to the broader mobility / energy landscape) and the competitive landscape factor
pdinny 4y ago
Putting aside all things Elon: Tesla was arguably incredibly overpriced (pick your reasons) and in a falling market that price is correcting. We like to construct simple narratives in which causes are few and their effects are clear. The real world is far messier than our stories about it. Perhaps Elon's actions at Twitter have played a factor here but to pretend that that is the sole (or even primary) cause would require some greater evidence than anecdotes of users who changed their minds about buying a Tesla. It would be great to see some debate about this story in the spirit of traders discussing the merits of the business rather than a fans-vs-haters style discussion about Elon.
weakfortress 4y ago
Lots of people are saying this is due to Elons behavior which I think misses the underlying actual reason. Tesla was extremely overvalued. Elon leveraged this value to purchase Twitter and is now funding that dumpster fire with Tesla's gold. The market is effectively correctly for this. Nothing more, nothing less. The market doesn't care what you say. It cares what you do.
- watwut 4y ago
  Yeah, but tesla was overvalued due to Musk behavior too.

sidcool 4y ago

Musk's Twitter antiques should not hurt Tesla.

sli 4y ago
That would be the case if he weren't in charge of both companies, but he is. The actions of a company's CEO reflects on the company, as it should. They want to pull all the strings, so they get to shoulder all the responsibility as well. If the CEO of a company you're invested in starts acting erratically, it doesn't matter where they're doing it, it's going to affect your investment.
elihu 4y ago
A huge part of Tesla's value is based on their brand. They have great manufacturing capabilities that incumbent automakers struggle to compete against, but if a large portion of their target market stops wanting to buy a Tesla because they feel like doing so is giving their endorsement to someone who behaves in erratic and alarming ways, then their cars aren't going to enjoy such a large profit margin going forward. They might make just as many cars as they would otherwise, but the business is worth less than it would be if they could sell at higher prices.
- glass3 4y ago
  That erratic behavior could also be a means to shift the target market. If Musk and thus Tesla are no longer perceived as left then people on the right are able to buy Teslas without losing face.
  - tigershark 4y ago
    Yeah, of course coal-rolling maga hats can’t wait to buy an electric car.
    - kfarr 4y ago
      4D chess to get red states to buy electric cars
    - glass3 4y ago
      If somebody wants to drive their car with coal, it has to be an electric car. Apart from nostalgic maga hats, what's a better match for an electric car than a person who can make America great again by supporting state of the art technology? The opportunity is there. The future will tell how many of Musk's recent decisions were clever.
  - elihu 4y ago
    It's plausible. I don't know how Musk looks from the point of view of, say, a pro-Trump Republican, but from my own biased point of view he doesn't come across as a serious businessman with conservative or libertarian leanings, but rather as someone who has, for some reason, begun making unpredictable self-destructive decisions. I think he's probably losing a lot more potential customers than he's gaining. There may be a political aspect to it, but the way I look at it is that he's an ordinary fallible human. We all know people who would make a big mess of things if they took Musk's place, but we don't usually worry about them all that much (except maybe on their behalf) because their ability to help or harm other people is limited.

seydor 4y ago

[flagged]

JonathanBeuys 4y ago

I wonder how much Musks behavior on Twitter over the last months impacted the Tesla brand. A lot of people I know hesitate to take a seat on a plane, even for a week-long holiday. Having to read about Elon Jet and that Musk takes a whole plane to watch a football game certainly rubs them the wrong way. Censoring users at will for his own ego or his own benefit also seems to go against what intellectual tech enthusiasts value. A lot of his tweets seem cold-hearted, passive-aggressive towards minorities like immigrants and LGBT people. For the people who followed it (not sure if it is many of the Tesla target demographic), it must have been a change from "Smart free speech absolutist who works on accelerating the advent of sustainable energy to save the world" to "Unethical, narcissistic despot with ill will towards minorities".

hrrsn 4y ago
My mother has been in the market for a new car for the last few months. I was keen on a Tesla until the shitposter in chief took the reins. We bought an Audi last week instead.
- alvah 4y ago
  Wait until you find out the history of Audi (and its parent company VW)
  - werdnapk 4y ago
    Any reason why people have to keep bringing this up? At this point, who really cares.
    - alvah 4y ago
      Audi or VW are poor choices if virtue signaling is the aim. Almost any other Western car company would have been better.
      - FatActor 4y ago
        Comparing corporations from 80 years ago under a regime that was toppled to a shitty CEO from today is utterly meaningless. The point of conscientious spending is to affect change. Not buying an Audi today does not send a message to Nazi Germany because it no longer exists (and it wasn't even Audi, it was their predecessor). Not buying a Tesla today sends a message to Tesla, because it exists. Make sense?

georgeg23 4y ago

Elon is basically a defense contractor now (see Starshield). Chinese government is going to turn the screws.

justapassenger 4y ago
SpaceX was always a defense contractor. Their own payloads and military are bulk of the launches. I would be worried more about USA turning the screw. Elon is extremely close and exposed to their biggest adversary, China. I’m actually surprised he wasn’t forced out of spacex by the military by now.
- paganel 4y ago
  And replace him with who? The bloated NASA thing? The guys from Detroit who saw their lunch eaten several times during the last few decades by foreign car companies? (that is if you treat the car industry as a strategic one, as I think the US military does). By the looks of it there are still some cooler heads at the Pentagon.
  - meepmorp 4y ago
    I think OP was just talking about removing him from SpaceX, not ditching SpaceX entirely. The company would be fine without him, it's run by Gwynne Shotwell anyway.
    - paganel 4y ago
      > The company would be fine without him I don't think that to be true on the middle to long term, things would just settle into a nice local maximum for SpaceX/Tesla as companies but most of the real innovation would be gone for good. Just look at Apple, they're a nice $2 trillion company but they've got nothing Earth-shattering since Jobs has been gone. To put it another way, without Musk there would have been no Starlink, which is an Earth-shattering thing in its own way (satellite internet for the masses is Earth-shattering). Without Starlink being possible the West wouldn't have had the same military results on the war front against Russia as it now has. Move Musk aside and who will come with the next Starlink? Later edit: Speaking of the car industry and its strategic value, we all know at this point that Henry Ford was literally a Nazi sympathiser and a Hitler groupie. That didn't stop him from doing business with Stalin's USSR since early in 1929, when the US hadn't established diplomatic relations with the Soviets just yet. If it hadn't been for Ford and for the American vehicles Stalin and USSR would have found it next to impossible to defeat Hitler and the Nazis a decade later. Stalin himself praised Henry Ford in 1944, i.e. after Ford's direct contacts with the Nazis in the late 1930s. > Stalin wrote to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, calling Henry Ford “one of the world’s greatest industrialists” and expressing the hope that “may God preserve him.” In other words, without the help of Nazi-loving Henry Ford most probably the Nazis wouldn't have been defeated. Like I said, hopefully there are still some cooler heads in the Pentagon who try to look at the middle to long term and try not to be influenced by the latest ideological scandals. [1] https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-signs-agreement-with-soviet-union https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-signs-agree...

hiddencost 4y ago

I wonder what margin call thresholds are for some loans collateralized by $TSLA...

DavidPiper 4y ago
Saw this earlier today (apologies for the eye-bleeding all-caps) - https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1607809970082299906?s=46&t=OUUvZ5hkrONcLFb5YXr22A https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1607809970082299906?s=46... Some interesting times ahead if we start seeing some mass sell-offs triggered.
- babyshake 4y ago
  Is this essentially a stop-loss? It would seem that Cathie Woods is crazy for buying/holding at the top and selling now.
jacquesm 4y ago
$100? $50? Who is to say. Stop loss orders may well accelerate the drop if that should happen. And the lower it goes the more they will have to sell to keep up! That feedback loop could get quite interesting soon.

tzm 4y ago

Worth noting the Dow Jones U.S. Auto Manufacturers Index is down 62% YTD.

fbdab103 4y ago
What percentage of that is weighted to Tesla? I think looking at the major brands individually would be more informative.
- wfme 4y ago
  1 Year TSLA: -69.93% GM: -41.66% FORD: -46.05% STLA: -26.47% 5 Years TSLA: 425.53% GM: -18.71% FORD: -10.33% STLA: -21.52%
  - tigershark 4y ago
    1 Month TSLA: -40%, GM: -15%, Ford: -18%, STLA: -7%
- SilasX 4y ago
  I was able to find this, which lists each automaker's YTD change that's in the index. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-US-AUTOMOBILES-449429/components/ https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/DOW-JONES-US-AUTO... Tesla's is still clearly the worst, at -69%, but Ford and GM have -45 and -43% respectively. If it's market-cap weighted (I can't tell at a glance), TSLA will have outsized influence, at a current market cap of $344B vs Ford and GM at $45B and $47B, and those three together being about 90% of the index's market cap. Only three components of it are up for the year.
ChuckMcM 4y ago
GM down 42% Past year Ford (F) down 46% Past Year Chrysler/Jeep (Stellantis) down 26% Past Year Toyota (TM) down 27% Past year Mercedes (MGGYY) down 31% Past Year Lucid Group (LCID) down 84% Past Year Nissan (NSANY) Down 36% Past Year Tesla (TSLA) Down 71% Past Year Honda (HMC) Down 18% Past Year Volkswagon (VWAGY) Down 48% Past Year BMW (BMWYY) down 13% Past Year

prvc 4y ago

>threshold used is 69% This kind of snark is uncalled for in a purportedly serious domain like financial journalism.

aaronbrethorst 4y ago
C’mon https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/business/elon-musk-420-twitter-filing.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/business/elon-musk-420-tw... https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/did-you-know-that-all-of-tesla-s-products-are-acronymized-to-spell-sexy-cars/ https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/did-you-know-that-all...
- prvc 4y ago
  His prerogative, and not theirs.
  - aaronbrethorst 4y ago
    C'mon https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/a-day-in-the-life-of-elon-musk-a-puerile-69-joke-and-being-sued-for-258-billion.html https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/a-day-in-t...
  - benatkin 4y ago
    It's his doing, and with the year about to end there probably won't be a conventional landmark like 75%
deleted 4y ago
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starik36 4y ago

> Analysts on average expect revenue to grow 54% in 2022 and 37% in 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That is some crazy growth still.

babypuncher 4y ago
It is, but Tesla's valuation was based on predictions of much bigger growth.
pengaru 4y ago
Is it really though? If you consider how few EVs there are on the roads relatively speaking, and of that small fraction only another fraction are Teslas... Assuming we're on the cusp of a global electrification of transportation, we should be looking at exponential growth. 54%->37% is the opposite of that.
- starik36 4y ago
  Car is not something someone buys on a lark. It's a once a decade purchase at best. And you can get an EV from any manufacturer these days, so I'd still consider double digit growth pretty incredible. Azure had 33% growth a couple of quarters ago and financial analysts acted like they are on the verge of collapse.
Fordec 4y ago
A stock that never rose on fundamentals (Tesla stock at its peak valuation was more than GM and Ford combined, their fundamentals were never that good) will also fall regardless of fundamentals. If the argument is about Tesla stock was worth that because of future expectations, then this fall can just be equally described as based on future expectations. Tesla still has a 33.7 P/E ratio, it could still fall another 50% again before the valuation is "worth it" depending on what metric you personally decide to base your investments.
jillesvangurp 4y ago
The craziness is that this company is indeed still performing really well in terms of revenue and growth. And yet investors are selling their shares. Presumably at a loss. And probably it's a really good investment opportunity at this point. I actually bought some mor shares a few weeks ago. Short term that's obviously not working out for me but I have good hopes longer term. It's still a good market to be producing batteries and electrical vehicles in. Tesla is still a market leader in that market. They've got production capacity, supply chains, etc. working just fine with more capacity coming online. It's still growth market. Nothing has changed really other than people's perceptions. And those can change again. It does raise the question: why are people selling shares at a loss? Who are these people? Why are they panicking so much that they'll take the loss? It's not very rational behavior. Which suggests an answer that maybe there are some people with a financial interest in this manipulating the markets. Either way, I expect Elon Musk might be buying some shares back at a discount just to make a point. There has been talk of buying back shares by Tesla in any case so there is plenty of support for that among share holders. At the current prices of the shares, that might actually not be the worst way to spend a few billion. And slightly evil of Elon Musk as well. So, entirely in character. Sell shares to buy Twitter, cause chaos there, watch Tesla's stock price collapse, buy back some Tesla shares at a discount, stock price goes back up again and Tesla continues making money and growing like nothing happened. Win win. Maybe Twitter survives all this. Maybe it won't. But does it matter if he comes out making a profit?

Ozzie_osman 4y ago

I think the effects of social media on the brains of famous people who get stuck in that feedback loop, is akin to being on drugs. Same level of addiction, same deterioration of connection to reality.

robmerki 4y ago
Combining that with the feedback loop of being insanely wealthy can only spell disaster. Being ultra rich is a disease.

andrewstuart 4y ago

Hope Musk is getting $50,000,000,000 worth of joy from owning Twitter, or whatever it’s cost him directly and indirectly.

code_biologist 4y ago
It's not good to see money burn... but it's not every day you get to see a 44 billion dollar pile doused with arrogance gasoline go up in flames.
- lolc 4y ago
  Why though? I welcome it! The pile could have been used to buy land and extract rent. But no, it was pissed away in a vanity project that is now feeding a robust alternative. That is great! More billionaires should do this and take their oligarch friends with them on the ride. Of course, the pile could also have been used to drive tech advancement. Yea, that'd been nice. Humanity might have gotten more out of it that way.

birdymcbird 4y ago

Is this really news or is it being posted as snark at Elon? Most of the market is down, outside of energy and defense sectors. Tech and tech related things have taken a massive hit. Tesla was massively overvalued on future sales. Given we going to a recession predicted as hard landing, its within reason this stock drops and more than Toyota, honda etc But sure, Tesla is suffering because elon is too focused on Twitter. feels more to me like corporate news media and progressive allies have a fight with elon. they wanted him to close the Twitter deal, then they were upset elon got rid of the woke crowd running the company. now now i keep hearing Twitter is about to collapse and Tesla is collapsing, all because of elon. i don’t buy this narrative. Nope. and from the corporate news media reports, i had a fairly negative perception of this guy until i saw his interviews and on some podcasts. he’s brash but ultimately he threatens publishing industry with what he might do at Twitter. corporate media fears him and almost has a 24/7 section devoted to him and his companies, just to get ahead in case he knives them like trump did.

clouddrover 4y ago
> feels more to me like corporate news media and progressive allies have a fight with elon. The fact that it feels this way to you is exactly the problem. It's pointless to politicize a car company but that's what Musk has gone ahead and done. It's not helping Tesla's stock price and it's not helping Tesla sell cars. > they wanted him to close the Twitter deal Musk signed a binding agreement to buy Twitter and then spent six months trying to back out of the deal. When Musk realized a contract is a contract and he wasn't going to win in court, he finally closed the deal. No one has done this to him. He did it to himself.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - clouddrover 4y ago
    Musk is too closely associated with the Tesla brand. The things the "Technoking" of Tesla does to make himself look bad also makes Tesla look bad. That's the practical reality of it whether you like it or not.

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lossolo 4y ago

TSLA -73.82 (-40.36%) past month only

meepmorp 4y ago
Half that (-$37) is in the last week, too

ent2022 4y ago

Me along with many others criticizing Elon Musk for about a decade but no one paid attention until things have become dire. How all masses including journalists missed this is beyond me

meepmorp 4y ago
Congratulations

pauljurczak 4y ago

You can defy gravity only so long...

jupp0r 4y ago

Anecdotal evidence, but I was planning to buy a Model 3 early next year mostly for in town driving with two small kids. Not going to happen anymore because of Elon openly spreading blatant conspiracy theories. Even if I didn't personally care, I feel like the brand has taken such a reputation hit. I might go for an Ionic 5 instead, need to do a test drive and some research. This makes me really sad because I used to admire Elon for being a CEO that really understood the technology that his companies create.

thinking4real 4y ago
[flagged]
- leereeves 4y ago
  Just curious: why is parent comment [flagged] but not [dead]?
- freejazz 4y ago
  How prescient that your post consists entirely of describing your own post.

AussieWog93 4y ago

Really bizarre that on a site where people from incredibly diverse backgrounds can have reasonable, adult discussions about topics like politics and religion, civil discourse breaks down as soon as someone says the phrase "Elon Musk".

yyyk 4y ago

The thing about Tesla is that short-sellers were right about the company being overvalued but wrong about the reasons people invested in Tesla. Tesla's FSD was obviously anything but; Tesla could have never gotten most of the EV market, unavoidable production limits made sure of that even before considering Tesla's patent stance (of not holding EV patents). However, many investors actually held Tesla as an 'ethical' climate-based contribution and never cared that much about profitability or hype or value. Musk was useful in promoting the brand by keeping it in the spotlight. Now, with other carmakers finally entering EV in force + Musk being, well, Musk, this contribution factor will strongly reduce. The risk now is overcorrection in the other direction - Tesla is too firmly established to go away.

sourcecodeplz 4y ago

He really needs to let go of Tesla. As that investor said, he will always be the father.

college_physics 4y ago

People focus on the Musk (key person risk) factor, but there is the broader tech factor (overhyping / faking what is being offered), the macro interest rates factor (unwinding risky bets) and possibly also the sector specific EV factor (fitness to the broader mobility / energy landscape) and the competitive landscape factor

pdinny 4y ago

Putting aside all things Elon: Tesla was arguably incredibly overpriced (pick your reasons) and in a falling market that price is correcting. We like to construct simple narratives in which causes are few and their effects are clear. The real world is far messier than our stories about it. Perhaps Elon's actions at Twitter have played a factor here but to pretend that that is the sole (or even primary) cause would require some greater evidence than anecdotes of users who changed their minds about buying a Tesla. It would be great to see some debate about this story in the spirit of traders discussing the merits of the business rather than a fans-vs-haters style discussion about Elon.

weakfortress 4y ago

Lots of people are saying this is due to Elons behavior which I think misses the underlying actual reason. Tesla was extremely overvalued. Elon leveraged this value to purchase Twitter and is now funding that dumpster fire with Tesla's gold. The market is effectively correctly for this. Nothing more, nothing less. The market doesn't care what you say. It cares what you do.

watwut 4y ago
Yeah, but tesla was overvalued due to Musk behavior too.