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Russia to Withdraw Troops from Kherson

187 points by IdealeZahlen 4y ago

cokeandpepsi 4y ago
RU was banking on a big GOP midterm win in the USA as their last hope, this pointless bloodbath needs to end
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  They likely were hoping for that, but I think this decision was tactical based on the frontline degrading over the past couple weeks, not reacting to the election. They've been prepping defenses on the left bank for most of a month.
- mushbino 4y ago
  I agree. The only sensible option at this point is a peace deal.
  - timbit42 4y ago
    ...which won't last unless Ukraine becomes a member of NATO.
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    Yes, Putin would very much like to popeacedealet and then attack again with fresh forces.
    - mcphage 4y ago
      > and then attack again with fresh forces Can they afford fresh forces? Can they afford to replace the hardware they've already lost?
      - Yizahi 4y ago
        Yes they can, unfortunately. Much worse and slower that west would expect, but they can. They have a lot of broken soviet stuff in the storage, which can be somehow repaired at least to the drive and shoot condition, even without fancy active armor or heat optics. They have a capability to manufacture dozens of ballistic missiles per month, so each new month is another 2-3 days of new bombardments in the future. Iran and NK are supplying them with contraband chips and other small but hard to get stuff, while these sources are just a trickle in the active war, but during the peace time they can accumulate a lot of stuff such way. And humans - their mobilization capability is approximately idk 100k-150k of soldiers at one time, due to lack of equipment for them, officers to train them and locations to quarter them. That's why half of new mobilised soldiers recently were sent directly to the active army. But a peace time would afford them to a) train a lot of troops in a batches of 100k, and b) expand mobilisation capacity by a lot, maybe x2 times for example. That's why Putin dropped all of his public demands recently and just about begs USA and Ukraine for the peace talks. ANd it's not because he will admit his defeat, it's to gain a tactical peace for his war.
  - synu 4y ago
    It has to include Ukraine joining NATO or Putin will be back.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    They already had a peace deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum > The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. There's no reason to believe any new one would be better respected by Russia; it'd be just an opportunity for Russia to rest, rearm, and invest in propaganda efforts.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Nope, Russia can unilaterally walk away from their unprovoked war of aggression and expansion any time.
- TechBro8615 4y ago
  - regnull 4y ago
    Putin has invaded Ukraine in 2014. The war was ongoing since then.
    - TechBro8615 4y ago
      In 2014 the Democrats were in charge, and he made no advances or significant additional aggression from 2016-2020.
      - piva00 4y ago
        Are you aware that Trump praised Putin multiple times during his term?
        TechBro8615 4y ago
        piva00 4y ago
        Ukraine was already being invaded and occupied while Trump was president and he did absolutely nothing about it. He praised Putin, he said Putin is a smart man. Worse, he tried to do a quid pro quo to get political ammo in exchange of support for Ukraine, for fucks sake. He was gonna throw Ukraine under the bus because they didn't give him some dirt on Biden's son. How does that not play in the hands of Putin, exactly? Are you seriously stating that because Putin didn't further invade during Trump's presidency, a president who was keen on taking down NATO and the alliance between EUA-EU wasn't playing in the hands of Putin? What exactly should have Putin done so you could see that? Just further invading Ukraine is the only point you can see for that? It seriously tires me out to have to read this bullshit on Hacker News.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
- wffurr 4y ago
  The Russians can end it at any moment by withdrawing their troops to the pre-war borders.
  - david927 4y ago
    - regnull 4y ago
      Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 when NATO membership was nowhere on the actual agenda.
    - samsk 4y ago
      I've also a good and old one: Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet
      - krisoft 4y ago
        > 500 tanks That doesn't seems to be right. Oryx lists 1450 lost Russian tanks, of which destroyed: 835, damaged: 62, abandoned: 53, captured: 500. And these are only the visually confirmed losses. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum...
    - vpribish 4y ago
      holy cats, a real live one
      - piva00 4y ago
        It's not the first one I bumped into here on Hacker News, just a day or two ago I tried calling out a poster that they were repeating literal Russian propaganda lines [1]. It doesn't seem to matter, they'll keep repeating it, ad nauseam... [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33522269 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33522269
- fallingknife 4y ago
  Why would they want that? Mitch McConnell has been calling for sending weapons that Biden has denied. And in any event, new congress isn't seated until January.
  - gremlinsinc 4y ago
    The guy who's nicknamed 'Moscow Mitch'? Everything he does has a shadow on it, he's a self-serving political viper. It's not just a smear, there's actual history behind the moniker (https://www.salon.com/2021/10/21/rachel-maddow-explains-origins-of-how-mcconnell-earned-his-moscow-mitch-moniker/ https://www.salon.com/2021/10/21/rachel-maddow-explains-orig...)
    - fallingknife 4y ago
      Surely, then, you also call the president "Beijing Biden" for all the deals his family has done in China? Or maybe it's not a good idea to just believe whatever someone's political opponents and their propagandists come up with.
    - FredPret 4y ago
      Nicknames are given by the other side. And all top politicians are self-serving, hence the need to swap them every now and then
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Nicknames are given by the other side. For sure. More revealing is what's said internally about their own. "There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump." - Kevin McCarthy McConnell's no MAGA, but he's not really in full control of the Party any longer.
- danans 4y ago
  > RU was banking on a big GOP midterm win in the USA How do we know there wasn't a big GOP win? The election outcome of several Senate seats is still unknown at this moment, and at least one is going to a run-off, so I doubt this was central to their decision making. Despite Russia's now openly admitted US election interference, I don't think they have more foresight into actual election outcomes than the US itself does. I'm not discounting your logic, though. Clearly the GOP has expressed intent to reduce US support for Ukraine. It's just too early to apply the logic to the situation on the ground.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win; if they take the Senate, it's gonna be with a 1-2 person majority at most (the Dems have 48 confirmed seats as of this morning). They'd need unity on fucking Ukraine over; it seems unlikely all ~51 would be on board here given the popularity of the Ukranians in the war in the US.
    - danans 4y ago
      > It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win I guess it depends on how you define "big". A supermajority in the Senate was never in the cards. A majority, however slim, would still be (per my own definition) a big win for the GOP. > They'd need unity on fucking Ukraine over; it seems unlikely all ~51 would be on board here given the popularity of the Ukranians in the war in the US. I think this is partially because Americans haven't felt the brunt of increased energy prices caused by the war to the degree that Europeans and others have. If/when that impact hits, the fact that half the country listens to media personalities that are openly supportive of the Russian side and are happy to suggest that appeasing Russia would bring down energy prices, suggests to me that public opinion could change pretty quickly. And I'll give the GOP credit for one thing: they have listened to what their base voters actually wanted (regardless of the morality of it) and they changed their tune. I'd love to be wrong, but doubt many people are willing to put the Ukrainians rights to peoplehood over the price of gas at the pump.
      - 4y ago
- indymike 4y ago
  That was a bad bet, maybe as bad as invading Ukraine. The GOP is even more in the pocket of the defense industrial complex and would very quickly realize that they get to replace and update all kinds of weapon systems and create jobs back home. > pointless bloodbath needs to end Yes, it does, right after Ukraine's territory is restored and the 1M or so people that have been relocated to Russia are returned home.
  - squarefoot 4y ago
    Then identified war criminals must be surrendered as well, and very harsh sanctions must be imposed to Russian govt and its supporting oligarchs in order to force them to pay for the destruction they brought. To me, just returning land and prisoners then saying sorry isn't enough.
    - indymike 4y ago
      > To me, just returning land and prisoners then saying sorry isn't enough. One of the lessons of WWI was heavy-handed reparations create more even larger problems. It took WWII to clean it up the mess, and while the de facto military dictatorship that emerged under the Kaiser was was bad, the Nazi replacement was far, far, far worse. What is important is that whatever end this comes to puts an end to wars of territorial conquest like this. They make little sense in the modern world, and are an absurd waste of life and wealth. After the war, Ukraine will become a NATO country, and the west will invest heavily in rebuilding and GDP will grow. So long as the people of Russia tolerate totalitarian rule, they will live with stagnant growth and dim future. If the people of Russia can once again open up, maybe that future will be different.
- exabrial 4y ago
  You should probably educate yourself, this comment is plain stupid. Support for Ukraine is bi-partisan, and if you would spend 5 minutes out of the echo chamber and look at the facts and voting record, you would see how ignorant you are of reality. Any of the debates have been on the _method_ and _extent_ of support, not _whether or not to support_. Both red and blue have had objections to types of aide being sent for legit national security concerns (for instance, classified fire control systems on 155mm artillery).
- openasocket 4y ago
  I think this is an overly ameri-centric take. There are a lot of factors impacting this war, and sure the composition of the US Congress is one of them, but it is fairly insignificant. A much bigger factor in deciding the war is how successful Russian mobilization is/was/will be, and the political costs to doing a partial mobilization. Another factor would be the sales of arms from Iran to Russia, and whether they can be used to real tactical effect beyond the terror-bombing we've seen thus far.
  - mobilefriendly 4y ago
    Russian media had wall-to-wall coverage of the US elections.
    - openasocket 4y ago
      Sure, but the Russian media can have an overly ameri-centric take too. It's not like we trust the Russian media to fairly and accurately represent the factors impacting the war. And even if we did, they can still be wrong.
  - wiseowise 4y ago
    > A much bigger factor in deciding the war is how successful Russian mobilization is/was/will be More meat into the grinder.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
midislack 4y ago
- theCrowing 4y ago
  Is it though?
- simmerup 4y ago
  If they could destroy the Ukrainian forces with artillery, why have they not already done that? Sure, this frees them to shell civilians but that’s hardly much of a victory
  - midislack 4y ago
    They already did, it's why the Ukraine's running on NATO "volunteers" now.
  - miohtama 4y ago
    Russia is too busy to waste its artillery ammo on civilian targets. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-terror-tactics-putin-escalates-attacks-on-ukrainian-civilian-targets/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-t...
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      Indeed, civilian targets get much cheaper guided missiles and now "drones" /s
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  They haven't retaken any significant cities with this strategy (and please don't start telling me about some farming village like Makiivka with three houses and a barn).
  - pastacacioepepe 4y ago
    > farming village like Makiivka with three houses and a barn Nice try. Makiivka is an industrial city with a population of 345,685 as of 2017. Source: Wikipedia.
Invictus0 4y ago
UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka dam and wash them all away.
- roywiggins 4y ago
  It seems like it would mostly flood the wrong side of the river to be useful to Russia. > The flooding isn’t enough to push artillery out of range, so the damage would be to all the settlements on the south side (which are not minor, but are claimed by Russia) and to the nuclear plant up river that could loose cooling water. It would seem like more of an own goal, flooding the south side — the left bank — more than any damage to liberated Kherson. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Lo...
- miohtama 4y ago
  The city is likely filled with mines, so chasing won’t be fast. Russia had good time to dig in.
- Yizahi 4y ago
  Next Ukrainian deoccupation will likely happen directly south from Zaporizhzhia which would cut occupying forces in two halves. Then left bank Dnieper river forces can be attacked from the east, without crossing big rever (and right bank Ukrainian forces can meanwhile strategically blow up things with St. Himars and other artillery).
  - varjag 4y ago
    A push along Svatove-Luhansk is equally likely.
    - Yizahi 4y ago
      They will probably threaten both areas and then attack whichever is weaker at the moment, just like in September.
shmerl 4y ago
No signs of it according to Ukranian side: https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440 https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440
- DocTomoe 4y ago
  - timbit42 4y ago
    The Russians are trying to entrap the Ukrainians so they are trying to look like they've run away like in other places, but they aren't running away because a city like Kherson would be a huge loss.
    - risyachka 4y ago
      Because it works all previous times lol This will go sideways for them no matter if they are retreating or pretending
  - matkoniecz 4y ago
    There are no signs of withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian territory in general (for now).
  - shmerl 4y ago
    That would make zero sense. Support should ensure Putin loses the war, not a single area. Withdrawing it means letting Putin win. That won't happen.
- rosywoozlechan 4y ago
  Yeah, I'll believe it if I see ISW update their maps. Until then this is just another psyops op.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    ISW says it's happening. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1590549998894448640 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1590549998894448640
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
paganel 4y ago
Also worth pointing out that Stremousov, Deputy Head of Kherson region, died today in a supposed car accident (it is told the driver survived). Here’s the acting governor of Kherson confirming it [1]. It smells like the Russians taking out one of their non-cooperating assets, they have done that post-2014 in Donetsk. I guess we’ll have to wait for more details. [1] https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123 https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Georgelemental 4y ago
  Isn't it more likely to just be an SBU hit?
  - rekoros 4y ago
    More likely an FSB hit
  - paganel 4y ago
    I would have expected a bomb from the SBU. That’s what they did with Dugina and to some other officials working for the Russians in the contested territories.
  - wiseowise 4y ago
    Unlikely. The guy was nuts, talking about Andromeda galaxy, Ukrainian Wehrmacht, etc. Frankly he was giving so much bad PR for Russians, that it’s strange he wasn’t eliminated earlier.
myth_drannon 4y ago
They are preparing to flood it, just waiting for Ukrainian army to enter the trap.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Unlikely; the main floodplains are on the other side of the river. https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520 https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520
  - Balgair 4y ago
    You know that, and I know that, but given the performance of Russia thus far, I'm not certain that the Russians know that. You could have them staring at the map for hours and they'd still do something that stupid.
c7b 4y ago
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Scroll down. > Please don't complain that a submission is inappropriate. If a story is spam or off-topic, flag it.
danielodievich 4y ago
Few notes and stream of consciousness. As a naturalized USA citizen with Russian citizenship, this war has been on my mind 100% of the time since it started. My brother (in Russia) is as they say "Zed-turbo-patrioting" and I am (in USA) horrified at the elaborate seppuku my former country is committing, it's like a (not a very slow train wreck). And my cousin is trying to send me her teenage son so him the hell out of there. Challenging family dynamic to say the least. The Russian army is a clay-legged colossus. All the money for it's weapons has been stolen and turned into fancy real estate and shiny yachts and parked offshore. Rusty AKs, WW2 era artillery, and purchases of Iranian (!?!) weapons? WTF! If China wants to go help itself to a chunk of Siberia, nobody is going to be able to stop it. Regardless of who controls the USA chambers of power, the support of Ukraine will continue, whether financial or via weapons. The money USA and the west has spent on this war is an INCREDIBLY GREAT bargain, I mean, it's f*ng cents on the dollar to utterly annihilate the historical strategic enemy AND! not spend a single soldier? It's brilliant. And the weapons are getting tested. It's like a public field test of superiority of western weapons, the world is watching, and there will not be any Russian weapon system sales anymore...
- jimbob45 4y ago
  Zed-turbo-patrioting What does that mean?
  - bsagdiyev 4y ago
    I think there's a not insignificant amount of the Russian population that has been fed, and thoroughly believes, this was something they had to do and Ukraine is full of literal Nazis.
  - VHRanger 4y ago
    Russians paint "Z" on their combat vehicles
  - FBISurveillance 4y ago
    Those guys who print their "Z" and "V" swastika everywhere.
maltalex 4y ago
To those of you that are interested in following the war in greater detail, check out the daily updates [1] from the Institute For The Study Of War [2]. There's even a map that updates daily [3]. [1]: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-confli... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War [3]: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641...
- nordsieck 4y ago
  For more macro level coverage, Perun[1] does a really good job at doing a deep dive into various strategic issues that affect the conflict. For example, his first video: "All Bling, No Basics"[2] does a good job explaining why the Russian military had such a difficult time during the early part of the conflict compared to the predictions by most of the analysts at the time. Just be aware that his shtick is hour long power point presentations. --- 1. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg
  - DarmokJalad1701 4y ago
    The name was similar to this gaming channel I follow. Imagine my surprise when I realized its the same guy. His "Terra Invicta" playthroughs have been really good.
  - LegitShady 4y ago
    just also be aware Perun isn't an expert and doesn't appear to have any qualifications. He's just parsing public information like everyone else. Trust as much as you'd trust any other random youtuber.
- CoastalCoder 4y ago
  Also apropos: [0] [0] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone
Simon_O_Rourke 4y ago
They've got some precedence in mining/sabotage operations. In WW2 the Soviets knew that the advancing Germans would basically re-use their own headquarters buildings, so they would rig up some pretty obvious trip-wires/mines that the unsuspecting Germans would clear out, not realizing some far more powerful booby trap was installed waiting a command signal. https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlled-explosive-device/ https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlle...
LegitShady 4y ago
It's a trap - while visibly talking about retreating from Kherson, according to Ukrainian intelligence they've actually boosted troop numbers in Kherson in the last 2 weeks (from ~20k to ~30k) and dug into the city very hard. They want the Ukrainians fighting to take ground around Kherson and then spend months fighting street by street (as russians have failed to do in Bakhmut) all under pre-sighted Russian artillery sitting pretty on the south side of the Dniepr. They don't want to blow the dam, or give up Kherson, they want to embroil the ukrainians in a grind like the ukrainians have done to them (and continue to do) in bakhmut, with a prize the ukrainians want (the liberation of Kherson the city and the region). If you're not sure watch Shoigu's announcement of this - one of the most scripted and least convincing 'military' discussion the russians have publicized. The butchers sending drafted men to their death's as meat with nothing but AKs, no training or medicine, and who slaughtered civilians wholesale throughout ukraine are now talking about how much they care about their men and civilians. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94 It's a deadly joke, but some Western media outlets are too excited for a big headline and will print anything that they think people will click on. Asking the ukrainians matters less than getting the headline first. I've already seen headlines that say "RUSSIA RETREATING FROM KHERSON" which aren't true. Russia says they will retreat from kherson, but aside from stripping every washing machine and kiddy train in the region, they have not retreated.
mint2 4y ago
Why is the media reporting like this is actually happening? It’s like they’re naive children. And theres even have other articles talking about how misinformation, intentional confusion and bluffing has been a huge part of the war. Anything the Russians proclaim can only sensibly be taken with extreme skepticism. This is most likely an attempt at a trap
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > Why is the media reporting like this is actually happening? Because the Ukranians have been running a fairly successful counter-offensive and pushing within artillery range of the city. It's quite clearly an untenable position for the current state of the Russian army. They're not going to be dumb about it; any withdrawal will show up on satellite, and will take time. Ukraine isn't likely to rush on in recklessly.
- dandanua 4y ago
  It can't be a trap with the current intelligence capabilities. It's just an informational warfare, psychological games. They say it loud to keep attention to them, not to Ukrainian officials. They say it to appear as those who control the situation, like it's their "goodwill gesture". They want to remove the idea that Ukrainian army controls the war from the informational space. It's them who must be in the center of attention of all media, not their enemies.
Max-Ganz-II 4y ago
Careful. The Russian Government has made an announcement they are evacuating. The Ukrainian military have stated they're not seeing it actually happen on the ground. They have been saying for some days they suspect it's a trap, and Kherson has not really been evacuated. This announcement could well be just more encouragement to dive in, from the Russians.
- alde 4y ago
  This. As a Ukrainian with relatives near Kherson, it is too early to judge. Russians have been changing their uniform to civil clothes and spreading through the city after semi-forcibly “evacuating” locals from their homes.
  - type0 4y ago
    From reports in Kherson they have been "evacuating" i.e looting everything of value for several day now.
- tonypags 4y ago
  From the article (buried in the middle): But its decision to pull back across the Dnipro river was treated with caution by Ukrainian officials. "Actions speak louder than words," said presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak. "We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight... [Ukraine] is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements."
  - type0 4y ago
    There has been intelligence reports of Russian soldiers taking on civilian clothes and occupying the houses. I think they would return to the same tactics like when they stepped back from Kyiv they mined everything including fridges in flats and even bodies of Ukrainians.
MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
I'll believe it when UAF soldiers are posting selfies from the town centre.
tjr225 4y ago

187 points by IdealeZahlen 4y ago

cokeandpepsi 4y ago

RU was banking on a big GOP midterm win in the USA as their last hope, this pointless bloodbath needs to end

bpodgursky 4y ago
They likely were hoping for that, but I think this decision was tactical based on the frontline degrading over the past couple weeks, not reacting to the election. They've been prepping defenses on the left bank for most of a month.
mushbino 4y ago
I agree. The only sensible option at this point is a peace deal.
- timbit42 4y ago
  ...which won't last unless Ukraine becomes a member of NATO.
- Yizahi 4y ago
  Yes, Putin would very much like to popeacedealet and then attack again with fresh forces.
  - mcphage 4y ago
    > and then attack again with fresh forces Can they afford fresh forces? Can they afford to replace the hardware they've already lost?
    - Yizahi 4y ago
      Yes they can, unfortunately. Much worse and slower that west would expect, but they can. They have a lot of broken soviet stuff in the storage, which can be somehow repaired at least to the drive and shoot condition, even without fancy active armor or heat optics. They have a capability to manufacture dozens of ballistic missiles per month, so each new month is another 2-3 days of new bombardments in the future. Iran and NK are supplying them with contraband chips and other small but hard to get stuff, while these sources are just a trickle in the active war, but during the peace time they can accumulate a lot of stuff such way. And humans - their mobilization capability is approximately idk 100k-150k of soldiers at one time, due to lack of equipment for them, officers to train them and locations to quarter them. That's why half of new mobilised soldiers recently were sent directly to the active army. But a peace time would afford them to a) train a lot of troops in a batches of 100k, and b) expand mobilisation capacity by a lot, maybe x2 times for example. That's why Putin dropped all of his public demands recently and just about begs USA and Ukraine for the peace talks. ANd it's not because he will admit his defeat, it's to gain a tactical peace for his war.
- synu 4y ago
  It has to include Ukraine joining NATO or Putin will be back.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  They already had a peace deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum > The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. There's no reason to believe any new one would be better respected by Russia; it'd be just an opportunity for Russia to rest, rearm, and invest in propaganda efforts.
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  Nope, Russia can unilaterally walk away from their unprovoked war of aggression and expansion any time.
TechBro8615 4y ago
- regnull 4y ago
  Putin has invaded Ukraine in 2014. The war was ongoing since then.
  - TechBro8615 4y ago
    In 2014 the Democrats were in charge, and he made no advances or significant additional aggression from 2016-2020.
    - piva00 4y ago
      Are you aware that Trump praised Putin multiple times during his term?
      - TechBro8615 4y ago
        piva00 4y ago
        Ukraine was already being invaded and occupied while Trump was president and he did absolutely nothing about it. He praised Putin, he said Putin is a smart man. Worse, he tried to do a quid pro quo to get political ammo in exchange of support for Ukraine, for fucks sake. He was gonna throw Ukraine under the bus because they didn't give him some dirt on Biden's son. How does that not play in the hands of Putin, exactly? Are you seriously stating that because Putin didn't further invade during Trump's presidency, a president who was keen on taking down NATO and the alliance between EUA-EU wasn't playing in the hands of Putin? What exactly should have Putin done so you could see that? Just further invading Ukraine is the only point you can see for that? It seriously tires me out to have to read this bullshit on Hacker News.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
wffurr 4y ago
The Russians can end it at any moment by withdrawing their troops to the pre-war borders.
- david927 4y ago
  - regnull 4y ago
    Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 when NATO membership was nowhere on the actual agenda.
  - samsk 4y ago
    I've also a good and old one: Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet
    - krisoft 4y ago
      > 500 tanks That doesn't seems to be right. Oryx lists 1450 lost Russian tanks, of which destroyed: 835, damaged: 62, abandoned: 53, captured: 500. And these are only the visually confirmed losses. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum...
  - vpribish 4y ago
    holy cats, a real live one
    - piva00 4y ago
      It's not the first one I bumped into here on Hacker News, just a day or two ago I tried calling out a poster that they were repeating literal Russian propaganda lines [1]. It doesn't seem to matter, they'll keep repeating it, ad nauseam... [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33522269 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33522269
fallingknife 4y ago
Why would they want that? Mitch McConnell has been calling for sending weapons that Biden has denied. And in any event, new congress isn't seated until January.
- gremlinsinc 4y ago
  The guy who's nicknamed 'Moscow Mitch'? Everything he does has a shadow on it, he's a self-serving political viper. It's not just a smear, there's actual history behind the moniker (https://www.salon.com/2021/10/21/rachel-maddow-explains-origins-of-how-mcconnell-earned-his-moscow-mitch-moniker/ https://www.salon.com/2021/10/21/rachel-maddow-explains-orig...)
  - fallingknife 4y ago
    Surely, then, you also call the president "Beijing Biden" for all the deals his family has done in China? Or maybe it's not a good idea to just believe whatever someone's political opponents and their propagandists come up with.
  - FredPret 4y ago
    Nicknames are given by the other side. And all top politicians are self-serving, hence the need to swap them every now and then
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      > Nicknames are given by the other side. For sure. More revealing is what's said internally about their own. "There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump." - Kevin McCarthy McConnell's no MAGA, but he's not really in full control of the Party any longer.
danans 4y ago
> RU was banking on a big GOP midterm win in the USA How do we know there wasn't a big GOP win? The election outcome of several Senate seats is still unknown at this moment, and at least one is going to a run-off, so I doubt this was central to their decision making. Despite Russia's now openly admitted US election interference, I don't think they have more foresight into actual election outcomes than the US itself does. I'm not discounting your logic, though. Clearly the GOP has expressed intent to reduce US support for Ukraine. It's just too early to apply the logic to the situation on the ground.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win; if they take the Senate, it's gonna be with a 1-2 person majority at most (the Dems have 48 confirmed seats as of this morning). They'd need unity on fucking Ukraine over; it seems unlikely all ~51 would be on board here given the popularity of the Ukranians in the war in the US.
  - danans 4y ago
    > It's very clear there hasn't been a big GOP win I guess it depends on how you define "big". A supermajority in the Senate was never in the cards. A majority, however slim, would still be (per my own definition) a big win for the GOP. > They'd need unity on fucking Ukraine over; it seems unlikely all ~51 would be on board here given the popularity of the Ukranians in the war in the US. I think this is partially because Americans haven't felt the brunt of increased energy prices caused by the war to the degree that Europeans and others have. If/when that impact hits, the fact that half the country listens to media personalities that are openly supportive of the Russian side and are happy to suggest that appeasing Russia would bring down energy prices, suggests to me that public opinion could change pretty quickly. And I'll give the GOP credit for one thing: they have listened to what their base voters actually wanted (regardless of the morality of it) and they changed their tune. I'd love to be wrong, but doubt many people are willing to put the Ukrainians rights to peoplehood over the price of gas at the pump.
    - 4y ago
indymike 4y ago
That was a bad bet, maybe as bad as invading Ukraine. The GOP is even more in the pocket of the defense industrial complex and would very quickly realize that they get to replace and update all kinds of weapon systems and create jobs back home. > pointless bloodbath needs to end Yes, it does, right after Ukraine's territory is restored and the 1M or so people that have been relocated to Russia are returned home.
- squarefoot 4y ago
  Then identified war criminals must be surrendered as well, and very harsh sanctions must be imposed to Russian govt and its supporting oligarchs in order to force them to pay for the destruction they brought. To me, just returning land and prisoners then saying sorry isn't enough.
  - indymike 4y ago
    > To me, just returning land and prisoners then saying sorry isn't enough. One of the lessons of WWI was heavy-handed reparations create more even larger problems. It took WWII to clean it up the mess, and while the de facto military dictatorship that emerged under the Kaiser was was bad, the Nazi replacement was far, far, far worse. What is important is that whatever end this comes to puts an end to wars of territorial conquest like this. They make little sense in the modern world, and are an absurd waste of life and wealth. After the war, Ukraine will become a NATO country, and the west will invest heavily in rebuilding and GDP will grow. So long as the people of Russia tolerate totalitarian rule, they will live with stagnant growth and dim future. If the people of Russia can once again open up, maybe that future will be different.
exabrial 4y ago
You should probably educate yourself, this comment is plain stupid. Support for Ukraine is bi-partisan, and if you would spend 5 minutes out of the echo chamber and look at the facts and voting record, you would see how ignorant you are of reality. Any of the debates have been on the _method_ and _extent_ of support, not _whether or not to support_. Both red and blue have had objections to types of aide being sent for legit national security concerns (for instance, classified fire control systems on 155mm artillery).
openasocket 4y ago
I think this is an overly ameri-centric take. There are a lot of factors impacting this war, and sure the composition of the US Congress is one of them, but it is fairly insignificant. A much bigger factor in deciding the war is how successful Russian mobilization is/was/will be, and the political costs to doing a partial mobilization. Another factor would be the sales of arms from Iran to Russia, and whether they can be used to real tactical effect beyond the terror-bombing we've seen thus far.
- mobilefriendly 4y ago
  Russian media had wall-to-wall coverage of the US elections.
  - openasocket 4y ago
    Sure, but the Russian media can have an overly ameri-centric take too. It's not like we trust the Russian media to fairly and accurately represent the factors impacting the war. And even if we did, they can still be wrong.
- wiseowise 4y ago
  > A much bigger factor in deciding the war is how successful Russian mobilization is/was/will be More meat into the grinder.
deleted 4y ago
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midislack 4y ago

theCrowing 4y ago
Is it though?
simmerup 4y ago
If they could destroy the Ukrainian forces with artillery, why have they not already done that? Sure, this frees them to shell civilians but that’s hardly much of a victory
- midislack 4y ago
  They already did, it's why the Ukraine's running on NATO "volunteers" now.
- miohtama 4y ago
  Russia is too busy to waste its artillery ammo on civilian targets. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-terror-tactics-putin-escalates-attacks-on-ukrainian-civilian-targets/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-t...
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Indeed, civilian targets get much cheaper guided missiles and now "drones" /s
bpodgursky 4y ago
They haven't retaken any significant cities with this strategy (and please don't start telling me about some farming village like Makiivka with three houses and a barn).
- pastacacioepepe 4y ago
  > farming village like Makiivka with three houses and a barn Nice try. Makiivka is an industrial city with a population of 345,685 as of 2017. Source: Wikipedia.

Invictus0 4y ago

UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka dam and wash them all away.

roywiggins 4y ago
It seems like it would mostly flood the wrong side of the river to be useful to Russia. > The flooding isn’t enough to push artillery out of range, so the damage would be to all the settlements on the south side (which are not minor, but are claimed by Russia) and to the nuclear plant up river that could loose cooling water. It would seem like more of an own goal, flooding the south side — the left bank — more than any damage to liberated Kherson. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Lo...
miohtama 4y ago
The city is likely filled with mines, so chasing won’t be fast. Russia had good time to dig in.
Yizahi 4y ago
Next Ukrainian deoccupation will likely happen directly south from Zaporizhzhia which would cut occupying forces in two halves. Then left bank Dnieper river forces can be attacked from the east, without crossing big rever (and right bank Ukrainian forces can meanwhile strategically blow up things with St. Himars and other artillery).
- varjag 4y ago
  A push along Svatove-Luhansk is equally likely.
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    They will probably threaten both areas and then attack whichever is weaker at the moment, just like in September.

shmerl 4y ago

No signs of it according to Ukranian side: https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440 https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440

DocTomoe 4y ago
- timbit42 4y ago
  The Russians are trying to entrap the Ukrainians so they are trying to look like they've run away like in other places, but they aren't running away because a city like Kherson would be a huge loss.
  - risyachka 4y ago
    Because it works all previous times lol This will go sideways for them no matter if they are retreating or pretending
- matkoniecz 4y ago
  There are no signs of withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian territory in general (for now).
- shmerl 4y ago
  That would make zero sense. Support should ensure Putin loses the war, not a single area. Withdrawing it means letting Putin win. That won't happen.
rosywoozlechan 4y ago
Yeah, I'll believe it if I see ISW update their maps. Until then this is just another psyops op.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  ISW says it's happening. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1590549998894448640 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1590549998894448640

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

paganel 4y ago

Also worth pointing out that Stremousov, Deputy Head of Kherson region, died today in a supposed car accident (it is told the driver survived). Here’s the acting governor of Kherson confirming it [1]. It smells like the Russians taking out one of their non-cooperating assets, they have done that post-2014 in Donetsk. I guess we’ll have to wait for more details. [1] https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123 https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123

deleted 4y ago
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Georgelemental 4y ago
Isn't it more likely to just be an SBU hit?
- rekoros 4y ago
  More likely an FSB hit
- paganel 4y ago
  I would have expected a bomb from the SBU. That’s what they did with Dugina and to some other officials working for the Russians in the contested territories.
- wiseowise 4y ago
  Unlikely. The guy was nuts, talking about Andromeda galaxy, Ukrainian Wehrmacht, etc. Frankly he was giving so much bad PR for Russians, that it’s strange he wasn’t eliminated earlier.

myth_drannon 4y ago

They are preparing to flood it, just waiting for Ukrainian army to enter the trap.

ceejayoz 4y ago
Unlikely; the main floodplains are on the other side of the river. https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520 https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520
- Balgair 4y ago
  You know that, and I know that, but given the performance of Russia thus far, I'm not certain that the Russians know that. You could have them staring at the map for hours and they'd still do something that stupid.

c7b 4y ago

ceejayoz 4y ago
Scroll down. > Please don't complain that a submission is inappropriate. If a story is spam or off-topic, flag it.

danielodievich 4y ago

Few notes and stream of consciousness. As a naturalized USA citizen with Russian citizenship, this war has been on my mind 100% of the time since it started. My brother (in Russia) is as they say "Zed-turbo-patrioting" and I am (in USA) horrified at the elaborate seppuku my former country is committing, it's like a (not a very slow train wreck). And my cousin is trying to send me her teenage son so him the hell out of there. Challenging family dynamic to say the least. The Russian army is a clay-legged colossus. All the money for it's weapons has been stolen and turned into fancy real estate and shiny yachts and parked offshore. Rusty AKs, WW2 era artillery, and purchases of Iranian (!?!) weapons? WTF! If China wants to go help itself to a chunk of Siberia, nobody is going to be able to stop it. Regardless of who controls the USA chambers of power, the support of Ukraine will continue, whether financial or via weapons. The money USA and the west has spent on this war is an INCREDIBLY GREAT bargain, I mean, it's f*ng cents on the dollar to utterly annihilate the historical strategic enemy AND! not spend a single soldier? It's brilliant. And the weapons are getting tested. It's like a public field test of superiority of western weapons, the world is watching, and there will not be any Russian weapon system sales anymore...

jimbob45 4y ago
Zed-turbo-patrioting What does that mean?
- bsagdiyev 4y ago
  I think there's a not insignificant amount of the Russian population that has been fed, and thoroughly believes, this was something they had to do and Ukraine is full of literal Nazis.
- VHRanger 4y ago
  Russians paint "Z" on their combat vehicles
- FBISurveillance 4y ago
  Those guys who print their "Z" and "V" swastika everywhere.

maltalex 4y ago

To those of you that are interested in following the war in greater detail, check out the daily updates [1] from the Institute For The Study Of War [2]. There's even a map that updates daily [3]. [1]: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-confli... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War [3]: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641...

nordsieck 4y ago
For more macro level coverage, Perun[1] does a really good job at doing a deep dive into various strategic issues that affect the conflict. For example, his first video: "All Bling, No Basics"[2] does a good job explaining why the Russian military had such a difficult time during the early part of the conflict compared to the predictions by most of the analysts at the time. Just be aware that his shtick is hour long power point presentations. --- 1. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg
- DarmokJalad1701 4y ago
  The name was similar to this gaming channel I follow. Imagine my surprise when I realized its the same guy. His "Terra Invicta" playthroughs have been really good.
- LegitShady 4y ago
  just also be aware Perun isn't an expert and doesn't appear to have any qualifications. He's just parsing public information like everyone else. Trust as much as you'd trust any other random youtuber.
CoastalCoder 4y ago
Also apropos: [0] [0] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone

Simon_O_Rourke 4y ago

They've got some precedence in mining/sabotage operations. In WW2 the Soviets knew that the advancing Germans would basically re-use their own headquarters buildings, so they would rig up some pretty obvious trip-wires/mines that the unsuspecting Germans would clear out, not realizing some far more powerful booby trap was installed waiting a command signal. https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlled-explosive-device/ https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlle...

LegitShady 4y ago

It's a trap - while visibly talking about retreating from Kherson, according to Ukrainian intelligence they've actually boosted troop numbers in Kherson in the last 2 weeks (from ~20k to ~30k) and dug into the city very hard. They want the Ukrainians fighting to take ground around Kherson and then spend months fighting street by street (as russians have failed to do in Bakhmut) all under pre-sighted Russian artillery sitting pretty on the south side of the Dniepr. They don't want to blow the dam, or give up Kherson, they want to embroil the ukrainians in a grind like the ukrainians have done to them (and continue to do) in bakhmut, with a prize the ukrainians want (the liberation of Kherson the city and the region). If you're not sure watch Shoigu's announcement of this - one of the most scripted and least convincing 'military' discussion the russians have publicized. The butchers sending drafted men to their death's as meat with nothing but AKs, no training or medicine, and who slaughtered civilians wholesale throughout ukraine are now talking about how much they care about their men and civilians. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94 It's a deadly joke, but some Western media outlets are too excited for a big headline and will print anything that they think people will click on. Asking the ukrainians matters less than getting the headline first. I've already seen headlines that say "RUSSIA RETREATING FROM KHERSON" which aren't true. Russia says they will retreat from kherson, but aside from stripping every washing machine and kiddy train in the region, they have not retreated.

mint2 4y ago

Why is the media reporting like this is actually happening? It’s like they’re naive children. And theres even have other articles talking about how misinformation, intentional confusion and bluffing has been a huge part of the war. Anything the Russians proclaim can only sensibly be taken with extreme skepticism. This is most likely an attempt at a trap

ceejayoz 4y ago
> Why is the media reporting like this is actually happening? Because the Ukranians have been running a fairly successful counter-offensive and pushing within artillery range of the city. It's quite clearly an untenable position for the current state of the Russian army. They're not going to be dumb about it; any withdrawal will show up on satellite, and will take time. Ukraine isn't likely to rush on in recklessly.
dandanua 4y ago
It can't be a trap with the current intelligence capabilities. It's just an informational warfare, psychological games. They say it loud to keep attention to them, not to Ukrainian officials. They say it to appear as those who control the situation, like it's their "goodwill gesture". They want to remove the idea that Ukrainian army controls the war from the informational space. It's them who must be in the center of attention of all media, not their enemies.

Max-Ganz-II 4y ago

Careful. The Russian Government has made an announcement they are evacuating. The Ukrainian military have stated they're not seeing it actually happen on the ground. They have been saying for some days they suspect it's a trap, and Kherson has not really been evacuated. This announcement could well be just more encouragement to dive in, from the Russians.

alde 4y ago
This. As a Ukrainian with relatives near Kherson, it is too early to judge. Russians have been changing their uniform to civil clothes and spreading through the city after semi-forcibly “evacuating” locals from their homes.
- type0 4y ago
  From reports in Kherson they have been "evacuating" i.e looting everything of value for several day now.
tonypags 4y ago
From the article (buried in the middle): But its decision to pull back across the Dnipro river was treated with caution by Ukrainian officials. "Actions speak louder than words," said presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak. "We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight... [Ukraine] is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements."
- type0 4y ago
  There has been intelligence reports of Russian soldiers taking on civilian clothes and occupying the houses. I think they would return to the same tactics like when they stepped back from Kyiv they mined everything including fridges in flats and even bodies of Ukrainians.

MonkeyMalarky 4y ago

I'll believe it when UAF soldiers are posting selfies from the town centre.

tjr225 4y ago