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A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Kore

A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.

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theptip 4y ago
I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.
- slickrick216 4y ago
  If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
  - theptip 4y ago
    That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
  - xwolfi 4y ago
    It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
  - mlsu 4y ago
    If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
  - bendhoefs 4y ago
    Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
    - nordsieck 4y ago
      > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
    - etempleton 4y ago
      The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
      - ericmay 4y ago
        NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.
      - lmm 4y ago
        > The United States has indicated that they would intervene, The US has made multiple unclear statements. What one president may say, another may walk back or reverse. Or the US might simply not do what they said, or adopt some face-saving half-measure. Killing US troops stationed in Japan, OTOH, would force a very strong response; even if the government wanted to deescalate, the public wouldn't let them.
  - DeathArrow 4y ago
    China does not want Japan. They want Taiwan and preferably with chip factories intact.
  - georgeecollins 4y ago
    It's possible for China to attack fabs in Japan but China attacking Japan is a WW3 level escalation without a doubt. Invading Taiwan may or may not be. Japan is very able to defend itself against China and the Chinese know that. That doesn't mean the Japanese would win a war with China, but who knows? Who would think Ukraine could take on Russia? If China seriously went to war with the US and Japan China could be blockaded. The history of the last fifty years suggest the Chinese are pretty measured in their use of force. I'm sure they would try to capture Taiwan if they were confident they could with acceptable losses. But they realize time is on their side and they are not crazy gamblers like Putin.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      Depends on how Sino-US competition veers. As important as TW is to rejuvenation narrative, it's ultimately the consolation prize versus dismantling US east asian security architecture and securing regional+ hegemony. That's the grand finale battle for the lightcone of future PRC security/prosperity. >Japan is very able to defend Japan (and SKR, and TW, and even PH) like most US allies in island chain are are heavily dependant on energy and calorie imports. They can defend themselves against invasion, but they can't defend against PRC turning them into Yemen by wrecking critical infra (cut internet cables, destroy power nodes, mine ports etc). Stuff that make them non viable as a modern economy/society. The flip side of trying to contain PRC during peace is if they try to contain PRC during war, they're stuck in the island chain with a much more autarkic PRC who can spoil region indefinitely. And because US has security commitments, it maybe in PRC interest to draw US to defend allies where PRC forces balance is strongest. I also think while CCP obviously prefers low cost reuninfication (even if armed), I personally would not be surprised if things escalate much broader because there are larger (and worthwhile) goals / targets. If Australia is going to contribute to even supporting US efforts in TW scenario, then destroying US military infra in AU (Pinegap, Geraldton, Exmouth) will cripple US Indo Pac operation. If anything, there may come a point of favourable future PRC power balance mixed with levels of percieved US antagonism where PRC will be eager for excuses to eliminate US regional/global military infra.
      - greycol 4y ago
  - addingadimensio 4y ago
    If China invades Taiwan it’s not unrealistic to think they’ll also start World War III at the same time? I think that’s unrealistic
  - bluepizza 4y ago
    It is completely unrealistic. Japan is protected by the USA. Any attacks on Japanese territory would lead to nuclear annihilation of Beijing.
    - heavyset_go 4y ago
      This sounds like what was being said about Taiwan a few years ago.
      - bluepizza 4y ago
        It absolutely does not. Taiwan was never under any sort of agreement, and the USA has always been ambiguous about its policy towards Taiwan. This is completely different from the mutual defense agreement that Japan has with the USA, where it has been made very clear that the USA will protect Japan. I understand you want to have a critical opinion, but you need to look at the facts.
        hollerith 4y ago
        In particular, Japan has the economic and technological might to have been able to make nukes decades ago. They didn't because they received a promise from the US that if anyone nuked them, the US would retaliate with its nukes. In exchange, Japan promised it would not make nukes (and probably also promised to consult with the US on Japanese national security matters). This deal came about because both Japan and the US see the value in keeping the number of countries with nukes low.
    - pweezy 4y ago
      China is a nuclear power and neither the US nor China is interested in MAD. Any attacks on Japanese territory would probably lead to a hot war with the US, but almost certainly not nuclear annihilation.
    - vagrantJin 4y ago
      What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not come from its military - but diplomacy. Allies in strategic places captured by the flow of capital. The military maintains the status quo but isn't invincible. If it were, Russia would not exist. China would not become a superpower. These are basics.
  - 22SAS 4y ago
    If they agree to stay the fuck out of Japan and focus solely on Taiwan, NATO will stay put to avoid WW3. Plus, South Korea, Japan, have treaties with the US, which will lead the US to intervene if either of these countries gets attacked. China might not want to officially give NATO a reason to start WW3.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
  - monocasa 4y ago
    Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.
    - SkyMarshal 4y ago
      He might have meant the Quad.
- blaser-waffle 4y ago
  > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chinese have made it very clear to all involved that they will consider and/all US allies in the region as potential belligerents and act accordingly. AKA military action against Japan and SK, and possibly Australia and NZ. It is just another part of the Taiwan political calculus. Point is: moving the fabs out of Taiwan doesn't mean shit if they're still in a country that China could strike, and in the case of Japan, would likely strike, in the event of hostilities.
  - theptip 4y ago
    > China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here. Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries. It seems quite clear to me that the opening salvo you are hypothesizing (attacking multiple military bases and civilian targets) would be an act of war against the USA and Japan. This would certainly provoke all-out war with the US, and they have a first-use policy that could entail a nuclear response. Frankly the whole scenario above seems extremely unlikely to me, and I think Ukraine is the better example to model here. Essentially, China occupies Taiwan, and dares the US to strike in retaliation, knowing that their retaliation would be the thing that triggers armageddon, and betting that the US is not actually willing to escalate militarily over Taiwan. I predict that China would take an effort to avoid attacking any US military personnel stationed in Taiwan (I gather this is just an unofficial presence), because the rational play is to give the US as little excuse as possible to escalate in response. In other words, China MUST offer the US a path to de-escalation/capitulation in order to take Taiwan without a war with the USA. It's much easier to take Taiwan without a full war with the USA (obviously, IMO).
    - 4y ago
- godelski 4y ago
  > I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. Countries that have actively threatened Japan with nuclear bombs: China, Russia, North Korea, and the US (which literally dropped a bomb but have yet to make threats since).
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    Okay? Put some dates on those, because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.
    - godelski 4y ago
      > because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats. Well that was a sarcastic joke at the end. The US has not made any threats to Japan since after the bombing. The other countries listed are a different story though. Russia: I think you have forgotten that the Kuril Islands are still contested territory between Japan and Russia. Russia's same policy is there that they will retaliate if their territories are "attacked." The exact same line with Ukraine. Putin has suggested he would take out Japan and (South) Korea quickly as they are the US's main launching points of an attack. Getting them out of the war quickly gives Russia a serious advantage and the US a serious disadvantage. This is ongoing and has been in discussion since the Cold War. Policies have not shifted on this. Russia has actively been violating international nuclear armament treaties and this has been big news since 2014. So, current. China: Has been much more explicit and aggressive, stating that they will nuke Japan until they unconditionally surrender if they even send a single troop to defend Taiwan[1]. This video is 2021. They have also made similar threats to Australia after a deal with the US for nuclear powered subs (which would not have nuclear weapons) saying that any nuclear nation is not immune from nuclear attack. North Korea: idk, last week when they launched their test missile directly over Japan? I get that searching with respect to Russia might be difficult right now because everything is focused on Ukraine and Google overfits search results. But this has been in military discussion for decades. Maybe it is just saber rattling, but these are still things that have been said. [1] https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1414971285160005634 https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/141497128516000563...
permo-w 4y ago
China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target
- vkou 4y ago
  If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
  - permo-w 4y ago
    pardon?
rat87 4y ago
Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily
sitkack 4y ago
All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.
- toss1 4y ago
  Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
  - cowtools 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
    - toss1 4y ago
      That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.
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theptip 4y ago

I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.

slickrick216 4y ago
If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
- theptip 4y ago
  That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
- xwolfi 4y ago
  It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
- mlsu 4y ago
  If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
- bendhoefs 4y ago
  Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
  - nordsieck 4y ago
    > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
  - etempleton 4y ago
    The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
    - ericmay 4y ago
      NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.
    - lmm 4y ago
      > The United States has indicated that they would intervene, The US has made multiple unclear statements. What one president may say, another may walk back or reverse. Or the US might simply not do what they said, or adopt some face-saving half-measure. Killing US troops stationed in Japan, OTOH, would force a very strong response; even if the government wanted to deescalate, the public wouldn't let them.
- DeathArrow 4y ago
  China does not want Japan. They want Taiwan and preferably with chip factories intact.
- georgeecollins 4y ago
  It's possible for China to attack fabs in Japan but China attacking Japan is a WW3 level escalation without a doubt. Invading Taiwan may or may not be. Japan is very able to defend itself against China and the Chinese know that. That doesn't mean the Japanese would win a war with China, but who knows? Who would think Ukraine could take on Russia? If China seriously went to war with the US and Japan China could be blockaded. The history of the last fifty years suggest the Chinese are pretty measured in their use of force. I'm sure they would try to capture Taiwan if they were confident they could with acceptable losses. But they realize time is on their side and they are not crazy gamblers like Putin.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Depends on how Sino-US competition veers. As important as TW is to rejuvenation narrative, it's ultimately the consolation prize versus dismantling US east asian security architecture and securing regional+ hegemony. That's the grand finale battle for the lightcone of future PRC security/prosperity. >Japan is very able to defend Japan (and SKR, and TW, and even PH) like most US allies in island chain are are heavily dependant on energy and calorie imports. They can defend themselves against invasion, but they can't defend against PRC turning them into Yemen by wrecking critical infra (cut internet cables, destroy power nodes, mine ports etc). Stuff that make them non viable as a modern economy/society. The flip side of trying to contain PRC during peace is if they try to contain PRC during war, they're stuck in the island chain with a much more autarkic PRC who can spoil region indefinitely. And because US has security commitments, it maybe in PRC interest to draw US to defend allies where PRC forces balance is strongest. I also think while CCP obviously prefers low cost reuninfication (even if armed), I personally would not be surprised if things escalate much broader because there are larger (and worthwhile) goals / targets. If Australia is going to contribute to even supporting US efforts in TW scenario, then destroying US military infra in AU (Pinegap, Geraldton, Exmouth) will cripple US Indo Pac operation. If anything, there may come a point of favourable future PRC power balance mixed with levels of percieved US antagonism where PRC will be eager for excuses to eliminate US regional/global military infra.
    - greycol 4y ago
- addingadimensio 4y ago
  If China invades Taiwan it’s not unrealistic to think they’ll also start World War III at the same time? I think that’s unrealistic
- bluepizza 4y ago
  It is completely unrealistic. Japan is protected by the USA. Any attacks on Japanese territory would lead to nuclear annihilation of Beijing.
  - heavyset_go 4y ago
    This sounds like what was being said about Taiwan a few years ago.
    - bluepizza 4y ago
      It absolutely does not. Taiwan was never under any sort of agreement, and the USA has always been ambiguous about its policy towards Taiwan. This is completely different from the mutual defense agreement that Japan has with the USA, where it has been made very clear that the USA will protect Japan. I understand you want to have a critical opinion, but you need to look at the facts.
      - hollerith 4y ago
        In particular, Japan has the economic and technological might to have been able to make nukes decades ago. They didn't because they received a promise from the US that if anyone nuked them, the US would retaliate with its nukes. In exchange, Japan promised it would not make nukes (and probably also promised to consult with the US on Japanese national security matters). This deal came about because both Japan and the US see the value in keeping the number of countries with nukes low.
  - pweezy 4y ago
    China is a nuclear power and neither the US nor China is interested in MAD. Any attacks on Japanese territory would probably lead to a hot war with the US, but almost certainly not nuclear annihilation.
  - vagrantJin 4y ago
    What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not come from its military - but diplomacy. Allies in strategic places captured by the flow of capital. The military maintains the status quo but isn't invincible. If it were, Russia would not exist. China would not become a superpower. These are basics.
- 22SAS 4y ago
  If they agree to stay the fuck out of Japan and focus solely on Taiwan, NATO will stay put to avoid WW3. Plus, South Korea, Japan, have treaties with the US, which will lead the US to intervene if either of these countries gets attacked. China might not want to officially give NATO a reason to start WW3.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
- monocasa 4y ago
  Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.
  - SkyMarshal 4y ago
    He might have meant the Quad.
blaser-waffle 4y ago
> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chinese have made it very clear to all involved that they will consider and/all US allies in the region as potential belligerents and act accordingly. AKA military action against Japan and SK, and possibly Australia and NZ. It is just another part of the Taiwan political calculus. Point is: moving the fabs out of Taiwan doesn't mean shit if they're still in a country that China could strike, and in the case of Japan, would likely strike, in the event of hostilities.
- theptip 4y ago
  > China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here. Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries. It seems quite clear to me that the opening salvo you are hypothesizing (attacking multiple military bases and civilian targets) would be an act of war against the USA and Japan. This would certainly provoke all-out war with the US, and they have a first-use policy that could entail a nuclear response. Frankly the whole scenario above seems extremely unlikely to me, and I think Ukraine is the better example to model here. Essentially, China occupies Taiwan, and dares the US to strike in retaliation, knowing that their retaliation would be the thing that triggers armageddon, and betting that the US is not actually willing to escalate militarily over Taiwan. I predict that China would take an effort to avoid attacking any US military personnel stationed in Taiwan (I gather this is just an unofficial presence), because the rational play is to give the US as little excuse as possible to escalate in response. In other words, China MUST offer the US a path to de-escalation/capitulation in order to take Taiwan without a war with the USA. It's much easier to take Taiwan without a full war with the USA (obviously, IMO).
  - 4y ago
godelski 4y ago
> I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. Countries that have actively threatened Japan with nuclear bombs: China, Russia, North Korea, and the US (which literally dropped a bomb but have yet to make threats since).
- Dylan16807 4y ago
  Okay? Put some dates on those, because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.
  - godelski 4y ago
    > because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats. Well that was a sarcastic joke at the end. The US has not made any threats to Japan since after the bombing. The other countries listed are a different story though. Russia: I think you have forgotten that the Kuril Islands are still contested territory between Japan and Russia. Russia's same policy is there that they will retaliate if their territories are "attacked." The exact same line with Ukraine. Putin has suggested he would take out Japan and (South) Korea quickly as they are the US's main launching points of an attack. Getting them out of the war quickly gives Russia a serious advantage and the US a serious disadvantage. This is ongoing and has been in discussion since the Cold War. Policies have not shifted on this. Russia has actively been violating international nuclear armament treaties and this has been big news since 2014. So, current. China: Has been much more explicit and aggressive, stating that they will nuke Japan until they unconditionally surrender if they even send a single troop to defend Taiwan[1]. This video is 2021. They have also made similar threats to Australia after a deal with the US for nuclear powered subs (which would not have nuclear weapons) saying that any nuclear nation is not immune from nuclear attack. North Korea: idk, last week when they launched their test missile directly over Japan? I get that searching with respect to Russia might be difficult right now because everything is focused on Ukraine and Google overfits search results. But this has been in military discussion for decades. Maybe it is just saber rattling, but these are still things that have been said. [1] https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1414971285160005634 https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/141497128516000563...

permo-w 4y ago

China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target

vkou 4y ago
If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
- permo-w 4y ago
  pardon?

rat87 4y ago

Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily

sitkack 4y ago

All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.

toss1 4y ago
Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
- cowtools 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
  - toss1 4y ago
    That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]