11 ms·

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militaril

by nscalf 4y ago

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.

LeifCarrotson 4y ago
A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- theptip 4y ago
  I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.
  - slickrick216 4y ago
    If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
    - theptip 4y ago
      That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
    - xwolfi 4y ago
      It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
    - mlsu 4y ago
      If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
    - bendhoefs 4y ago
      Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
      - nordsieck 4y ago
        > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
      - etempleton 4y ago
        The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
    - monocasa 4y ago
      Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.
      - SkyMarshal 4y ago
        He might have meant the Quad.
  - blaser-waffle 4y ago
    > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chinese have made it very clear to all involved that they will consider and/all US allies in the region as potential belligerents and act accordingly. AKA military action against Japan and SK, and possibly Australia and NZ. It is just another part of the Taiwan political calculus. Point is: moving the fabs out of Taiwan doesn't mean shit if they're still in a country that China could strike, and in the case of Japan, would likely strike, in the event of hostilities.
    - theptip 4y ago
      > China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here. Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries. It seems quite clear to me that the opening salvo you are hypothesizing (attacking multiple military bases and civilian targets) would be an act of war against the USA and Japan. This would certainly provoke all-out war with the US, and they have a first-use policy that could entail a nuclear response. Frankly the whole scenario above seems extremely unlikely to me, and I think Ukraine is the better example to model here. Essentially, China occupies Taiwan, and dares the US to strike in retaliation, knowing that their retaliation would be the thing that triggers armageddon, and betting that the US is not actually willing to escalate militarily over Taiwan. I predict that China would take an effort to avoid attacking any US military personnel stationed in Taiwan (I gather this is just an unofficial presence), because the rational play is to give the US as little excuse as possible to escalate in response. In other words, China MUST offer the US a path to de-escalation/capitulation in order to take Taiwan without a war with the USA. It's much easier to take Taiwan without a full war with the USA (obviously, IMO).
      - 4y ago
  - godelski 4y ago
    > I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. Countries that have actively threatened Japan with nuclear bombs: China, Russia, North Korea, and the US (which literally dropped a bomb but have yet to make threats since).
    - Dylan16807 4y ago
      Okay? Put some dates on those, because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.
      - godelski 4y ago
        > because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats. Well that was a sarcastic joke at the end. The US has not made any threats to Japan since after the bombing. The other countries listed are a different story though. Russia: I think you have forgotten that the Kuril Islands are still contested territory between Japan and Russia. Russia's same policy is there that they will retaliate if their territories are "attacked." The exact same line with Ukraine. Putin has suggested he would take out Japan and (South) Korea quickly as they are the US's main launching points of an attack. Getting them out of the war quickly gives Russia a serious advantage and the US a serious disadvantage. This is ongoing and has been in discussion since the Cold War. Policies have not shifted on this. Russia has actively been violating international nuclear armament treaties and this has been big news since 2014. So, current. China: Has been much more explicit and aggressive, stating that they will nuke Japan until they unconditionally surrender if they even send a single troop to defend Taiwan[1]. This video is 2021. They have also made similar threats to Australia after a deal with the US for nuclear powered subs (which would not have nuclear weapons) saying that any nuclear nation is not immune from nuclear attack. North Korea: idk, last week when they launched their test missile directly over Japan? I get that searching with respect to Russia might be difficult right now because everything is focused on Ukraine and Google overfits search results. But this has been in military discussion for decades. Maybe it is just saber rattling, but these are still things that have been said. [1] https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1414971285160005634 https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/141497128516000563...
- permo-w 4y ago
  China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target
  - vkou 4y ago
    If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
    - permo-w 4y ago
      pardon?
- rat87 4y ago
  Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily
- sitkack 4y ago
  All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.
  - toss1 4y ago
    Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
    - cowtools 4y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
      - toss1 4y ago
        That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
      - dirtyid 4y ago
        Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
JAlexoid 4y ago
Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.
- nscalf 4y ago
  If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.
  - patmorgan23 4y ago
    There are advanced Fabs in Israel, Intel and TSMC are both building next gen Fabs in Arizona. It's not like Twain is the only place with advanced chip fabs(though yes the vast majority of the capacity is there and IIRC thats where their latest process nodes are but I don't think the military is dependent on those absolute cutting edge process nodes)
    - heavyset_go 4y ago
      Those fabs won't start producing for years.
    - ElevenLathe 4y ago
      Taiwan is also the center of a lot of specialist equipment (not the big swiss-watch ASML machines, but stuff like wafer transports, cleanroom gear, etc.) and consumables (chemicals, bunny suits, etc.). I don't know how extensive and fragile that ecosystem is but I live in eastern Michigan and it seems like every small to midsize town has some tiny automotive supplier that is somehow still in business even while the big plants have moved on. I suspect this is largely because they have no competitors and it is specialist work that doesn't really scale (meaning there is only so much of this work to go around, even if global auto sales 10x) so no one is really motivated to compete either. The result is that the GM and Ford plants leave the country, but still rely on a relatively small set of expertise and tooling that only exist in the rust belt. Presumably, a thorough nuking of the Midwest would (in addition to lots of other unpleasant effects, like the death and famine millions, perhaps billions) at least require the pause of the majority of auto manufacturing around the globe. Assuming people still wanted cars after such an event, it could be recovered, but it would take time. I got a little carried away with the Michigan analogy, but IMO it doesn't go far enough: Taiwan is far more integral to the global semiconductor industry than Detroit is to the global auto industry.
rat87 4y ago
No just no Our dedication to protect our ally Taiwan has nothing to do with Silicone and neither does China's nationalist obsession over it. If it comes to war, chips will play no role
- l33t233372 4y ago
  What does our dedication have to do with if not that? Why are you so quick to dismiss being protective of such an important resource as a motivation to protect Taiwan?
- giobox 4y ago
  While we can likely all agree "Silicone" is not the issue, silicon chips is undoubtedly an important variable. The Taiwanese government agrees too, and does think chips will play a role: "Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, told one group that she saw the island’s tech prowess as a means of shoring up support for its democracy. Calling economic security a “pillar” of national security, she said Taiwan was willing to work with partners to build sustainable supply chains for what she called “democracy chips.” > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.h... This is hardly an "out-there" take, too.
Apofis 4y ago
My laptop and iPhone are fast enough… I can’t believe some people would risk a nuclear war over not having the latest iPhone next year.
- toss1 4y ago
  The latest electronic gadget is NOT what it is about It is whether the democracies of the world will abandon democracy and allow dictators to take over their societies by threat of force or force. If we are not both better armed, better prepared, and willing to fight, we might as well hand over the key to Putin, Xi, and Un, and live under their dictatorships. If we want freedom, we must risk war, and if the threat is nuclear war, then that most of all must be faced down. There is a reason we don't negotiate with terrorists or blackmailers — because if we negotiate and let them gain from terrorism or blackmail, we get a short period of peace before they try it again, along with every other wannabe dictator who can get their hands on some weapons. This all applies even more strongly with nukes. It sucks, but there is no other choice.
  - aaronblohowiak 4y ago
    I agree with you. But people don't care about democracy and freedom anymore. Not like they used to, anyway.
    - toss1 4y ago
      If they don't start caring on their own in a big hurry, they'll be forced to understand why they should care in only a slightly lesser hurry... I don't want to be condemned to repeat history because hordes of dolts can't even begin to pay attention ugh
jotm 4y ago
I mean, yeah, they're great, but come on. Most of the important stuff runs on stuff that's decades old.
iepathos 4y ago
The western world would not be compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan. We'd only need to provide money and weapons to Taiwan (rank #21 military in the world) to hold off China (#3) indefinitely given the fact that Taiwan is incredibly difficult to invade due to the barrier the mountain ridges form around it and the narrow straight leading to it for a sea attack. It's a natural fortress. Look at the ongoing failure of Russia (#2) in Ukraine (#22) despite not having difficult land to traverse in their invasion and having a greater advantage in military power by comparison.
- xyzzyz 4y ago
  How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Ahead of time.
    - SkyMarshal 4y ago
      They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.
      - tuatoru 4y ago
        I hope the US is ready to go with orbital kinetic energy weapons. Ten thousand or so projectiles, each made of 50 kilograms of tungsten, raining down at multiple kilometers per second, would likely...suppress...any attempted blockade. "Star wars" is feasible with reusable launch to orbit vehicles.
    - xyzzyz 4y ago
      Just like we did with Ukraine?
      - 4y ago
rcarr 4y ago
The company that makes the machines that TSMC use to make chips is Dutch if I remember correctly. So if Taiwan gets invaded it is a disaster but not an absolute disaster as presumably USA/other countries could order some machines from said company and start afresh. Supply would be constrained for a long period of time and there would be a massive economic hit but it wouldn’t necessarily have to lead to WW3. If Russia is anything to go by, presumably there will be indicators in the months before as to when an attack is going to happen which means TSMC staff could be evacuated to other countries to get things up and running. I think I also read somewhere that USA was already in the process of setting up more chip fabrication on US soil in conjunction with TSMC, I think maybe in Texas if I remember right? I think I also read that the entire foundry would be rigged to blow in the case of invasion. Between controlled demolitions such as these by Taiwan and whatever China has to fire at them to successfully win, there would be very little of value left standing on the island by the end of it. It would take them decades to redevelop it. Very hollow victory for China.

by nscalf 4y ago

LeifCarrotson 4y ago

A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
theptip 4y ago
I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.
- slickrick216 4y ago
  If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
  - theptip 4y ago
    That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
  - xwolfi 4y ago
    It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
  - mlsu 4y ago
    If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
  - bendhoefs 4y ago
    Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
    - nordsieck 4y ago
      > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
    - etempleton 4y ago
      The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and call it a victory or B. completely overestimate their chance of success. I think China's real hope is that they can threaten their way to an advantageous position and take Taiwan without firing a bullet, but so far no one is blinking and the west is fed up with autocrats threatening warfare to get their way.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
  - monocasa 4y ago
    Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.
    - SkyMarshal 4y ago
      He might have meant the Quad.
- blaser-waffle 4y ago
  > Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chinese have made it very clear to all involved that they will consider and/all US allies in the region as potential belligerents and act accordingly. AKA military action against Japan and SK, and possibly Australia and NZ. It is just another part of the Taiwan political calculus. Point is: moving the fabs out of Taiwan doesn't mean shit if they're still in a country that China could strike, and in the case of Japan, would likely strike, in the event of hostilities.
  - theptip 4y ago
    > China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here. Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries. It seems quite clear to me that the opening salvo you are hypothesizing (attacking multiple military bases and civilian targets) would be an act of war against the USA and Japan. This would certainly provoke all-out war with the US, and they have a first-use policy that could entail a nuclear response. Frankly the whole scenario above seems extremely unlikely to me, and I think Ukraine is the better example to model here. Essentially, China occupies Taiwan, and dares the US to strike in retaliation, knowing that their retaliation would be the thing that triggers armageddon, and betting that the US is not actually willing to escalate militarily over Taiwan. I predict that China would take an effort to avoid attacking any US military personnel stationed in Taiwan (I gather this is just an unofficial presence), because the rational play is to give the US as little excuse as possible to escalate in response. In other words, China MUST offer the US a path to de-escalation/capitulation in order to take Taiwan without a war with the USA. It's much easier to take Taiwan without a full war with the USA (obviously, IMO).
    - 4y ago
- godelski 4y ago
  > I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. Countries that have actively threatened Japan with nuclear bombs: China, Russia, North Korea, and the US (which literally dropped a bomb but have yet to make threats since).
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    Okay? Put some dates on those, because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats.
    - godelski 4y ago
      > because you know damn well WWII is irrelevant to the question of current threats. Well that was a sarcastic joke at the end. The US has not made any threats to Japan since after the bombing. The other countries listed are a different story though. Russia: I think you have forgotten that the Kuril Islands are still contested territory between Japan and Russia. Russia's same policy is there that they will retaliate if their territories are "attacked." The exact same line with Ukraine. Putin has suggested he would take out Japan and (South) Korea quickly as they are the US's main launching points of an attack. Getting them out of the war quickly gives Russia a serious advantage and the US a serious disadvantage. This is ongoing and has been in discussion since the Cold War. Policies have not shifted on this. Russia has actively been violating international nuclear armament treaties and this has been big news since 2014. So, current. China: Has been much more explicit and aggressive, stating that they will nuke Japan until they unconditionally surrender if they even send a single troop to defend Taiwan[1]. This video is 2021. They have also made similar threats to Australia after a deal with the US for nuclear powered subs (which would not have nuclear weapons) saying that any nuclear nation is not immune from nuclear attack. North Korea: idk, last week when they launched their test missile directly over Japan? I get that searching with respect to Russia might be difficult right now because everything is focused on Ukraine and Google overfits search results. But this has been in military discussion for decades. Maybe it is just saber rattling, but these are still things that have been said. [1] https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1414971285160005634 https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/141497128516000563...
permo-w 4y ago
China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target
- vkou 4y ago
  If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
  - permo-w 4y ago
    pardon?
rat87 4y ago
Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily
sitkack 4y ago
All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.
- toss1 4y ago
  Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
  - cowtools 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
    - toss1 4y ago
      That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

JAlexoid 4y ago

Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.

nscalf 4y ago
If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.
- patmorgan23 4y ago
  There are advanced Fabs in Israel, Intel and TSMC are both building next gen Fabs in Arizona. It's not like Twain is the only place with advanced chip fabs(though yes the vast majority of the capacity is there and IIRC thats where their latest process nodes are but I don't think the military is dependent on those absolute cutting edge process nodes)
  - heavyset_go 4y ago
    Those fabs won't start producing for years.
  - ElevenLathe 4y ago
    Taiwan is also the center of a lot of specialist equipment (not the big swiss-watch ASML machines, but stuff like wafer transports, cleanroom gear, etc.) and consumables (chemicals, bunny suits, etc.). I don't know how extensive and fragile that ecosystem is but I live in eastern Michigan and it seems like every small to midsize town has some tiny automotive supplier that is somehow still in business even while the big plants have moved on. I suspect this is largely because they have no competitors and it is specialist work that doesn't really scale (meaning there is only so much of this work to go around, even if global auto sales 10x) so no one is really motivated to compete either. The result is that the GM and Ford plants leave the country, but still rely on a relatively small set of expertise and tooling that only exist in the rust belt. Presumably, a thorough nuking of the Midwest would (in addition to lots of other unpleasant effects, like the death and famine millions, perhaps billions) at least require the pause of the majority of auto manufacturing around the globe. Assuming people still wanted cars after such an event, it could be recovered, but it would take time. I got a little carried away with the Michigan analogy, but IMO it doesn't go far enough: Taiwan is far more integral to the global semiconductor industry than Detroit is to the global auto industry.

rat87 4y ago

No just no Our dedication to protect our ally Taiwan has nothing to do with Silicone and neither does China's nationalist obsession over it. If it comes to war, chips will play no role

l33t233372 4y ago
What does our dedication have to do with if not that? Why are you so quick to dismiss being protective of such an important resource as a motivation to protect Taiwan?
giobox 4y ago
While we can likely all agree "Silicone" is not the issue, silicon chips is undoubtedly an important variable. The Taiwanese government agrees too, and does think chips will play a role: "Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, told one group that she saw the island’s tech prowess as a means of shoring up support for its democracy. Calling economic security a “pillar” of national security, she said Taiwan was willing to work with partners to build sustainable supply chains for what she called “democracy chips.” > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.h... This is hardly an "out-there" take, too.

Apofis 4y ago

My laptop and iPhone are fast enough… I can’t believe some people would risk a nuclear war over not having the latest iPhone next year.

toss1 4y ago
The latest electronic gadget is NOT what it is about It is whether the democracies of the world will abandon democracy and allow dictators to take over their societies by threat of force or force. If we are not both better armed, better prepared, and willing to fight, we might as well hand over the key to Putin, Xi, and Un, and live under their dictatorships. If we want freedom, we must risk war, and if the threat is nuclear war, then that most of all must be faced down. There is a reason we don't negotiate with terrorists or blackmailers — because if we negotiate and let them gain from terrorism or blackmail, we get a short period of peace before they try it again, along with every other wannabe dictator who can get their hands on some weapons. This all applies even more strongly with nukes. It sucks, but there is no other choice.
- aaronblohowiak 4y ago
  I agree with you. But people don't care about democracy and freedom anymore. Not like they used to, anyway.
  - toss1 4y ago
    If they don't start caring on their own in a big hurry, they'll be forced to understand why they should care in only a slightly lesser hurry... I don't want to be condemned to repeat history because hordes of dolts can't even begin to pay attention ugh

jotm 4y ago

I mean, yeah, they're great, but come on. Most of the important stuff runs on stuff that's decades old.

iepathos 4y ago

The western world would not be compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan. We'd only need to provide money and weapons to Taiwan (rank #21 military in the world) to hold off China (#3) indefinitely given the fact that Taiwan is incredibly difficult to invade due to the barrier the mountain ridges form around it and the narrow straight leading to it for a sea attack. It's a natural fortress. Look at the ongoing failure of Russia (#2) in Ukraine (#22) despite not having difficult land to traverse in their invasion and having a greater advantage in military power by comparison.

xyzzyz 4y ago
How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Ahead of time.
  - SkyMarshal 4y ago
    They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      I hope the US is ready to go with orbital kinetic energy weapons. Ten thousand or so projectiles, each made of 50 kilograms of tungsten, raining down at multiple kilometers per second, would likely...suppress...any attempted blockade. "Star wars" is feasible with reusable launch to orbit vehicles.
  - xyzzyz 4y ago
    Just like we did with Ukraine?
    - 4y ago

rcarr 4y ago

The company that makes the machines that TSMC use to make chips is Dutch if I remember correctly. So if Taiwan gets invaded it is a disaster but not an absolute disaster as presumably USA/other countries could order some machines from said company and start afresh. Supply would be constrained for a long period of time and there would be a massive economic hit but it wouldn’t necessarily have to lead to WW3. If Russia is anything to go by, presumably there will be indicators in the months before as to when an attack is going to happen which means TSMC staff could be evacuated to other countries to get things up and running. I think I also read somewhere that USA was already in the process of setting up more chip fabrication on US soil in conjunction with TSMC, I think maybe in Texas if I remember right? I think I also read that the entire foundry would be rigged to blow in the case of invasion. Between controlled demolitions such as these by Taiwan and whatever China has to fire at them to successfully win, there would be very little of value left standing on the island by the end of it. It would take them decades to redevelop it. Very hollow victory for China.