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EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least. If everyone other than Toyota goes completely electric, Toyota is going to be th

• schuke 4y ago
  I can totally imagine underdeveloped countries where you’ll find a lot of: - Used Chinese EVs which costed around 10-15k USD new. - Used and older upmarket EVs. - Low speed and low range EVs that cost around 1-2k USD new.
• Waterluvian 4y ago
  In many ways cars are basically a first world item, even today. Go to various urban centres worldwide and you’ll find a majority of other vehicle types.
• legutierr 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least. The largest EV market right now is China, and in India and other similar markets battery-swapping auto-rickshaws are increasingly common. EVs in developing markets won't look like EVs in North America and Europe, but that doesn't mean that they won't be massive EV markets.
  • seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    EVs have already hit it big in China now for more than a decade in the form of electric bicycles (the cheap kind, not the fancy > $1k ones we want in the west).
  • verisimi 4y ago
    I guess all their coal fueled power stations produce lots of cheap electricity.
    • jeegsy 4y ago
      Indeed!
• Gigachad 4y ago
  Without the current economies of scale, petrol production will explode in price and become completely unaffordable.
  • gary_0 4y ago
    That was my first thought. Once the world's richest economies hit the EV tipping point where automotive gasoline becomes a shrinking market, gas costs are going to go crazy, especially since things like refining capacity will go down as costs are cut and new investment goes to zero. The market for cheap electric cars and scooters/bikes will explode as consumers worldwide see the price of gas get higher and higher. Many of these cheap EVs won't be sold (or even legal to sell) in North America, but someone somewhere will meet that demand.
  • theshrike79 4y ago
    The telling fact is that oil companies refuse to start new oil fields even when they have the permissions. Opening up a new field costs mucho $$ and it takes a while to pay it back before it'll start making a profit. And it seems that their analysis shows that 25+ years in the future they're not making as much as they are today so there's no point in spending money up front. It's easier just to sell their existing inventory at insane prices.
• greenthrow 4y ago
  They aren't that now. You can get a used Leaf for $6k.
  • velhartice 4y ago
    Yea and it will have a range of ~50 miles if you’re lucky.
    • seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      You can spend $3.5-6k plus labor to replace a leaf’s battery with a reconditioned battery. It can work out to a reasonable investment.
      • velhartice 4y ago
        So 10k+ in for a 5+ year old car with a “reconditioned” battery that should last another year or two for 100 miles range on a good day? All the early Leafs suffer from short range along with terrible battery degradation. Where’s the value in that against my current paid for ICE car that will last me another 100k plus miles with no range degradation and that can charge to 400 miles in less than 5 minutes?
        • seanmcdirmid 4y ago
          ICE used cars have similar problems, at least with the used EV I know mostly what I’m getting myself into. ICEs don’t degrade, they just break.
          • cpsns 4y ago
            Sure, but they usually don’t cost so much to fix. Most engines don’t catastrophically fail and in the given scenario an ICE car would be a better choice than a used electric with a reconditioned batter.
            • 4y ago
• kumarvvr 4y ago
  Dude, Tata just released a new EV, Tata Tiago, which has a range of 250 km, charges in 7 hours (or 1 hour fast charging). Costs Rs. 9 lakhs, about 11,000 USD. They give a 7 year battery warranty. For coty commutes, which is most of car usage in India, this is a perfect spot. And Tata, has proven EV tech, via its Nexon EV range (400 km range, 22000 USD for the highest end version). Tata cars have solid build quality, great resale value and are blindly trusted by many Indians.
  • nitinreddy88 4y ago
    It doesn't cost 9 lakhs. It costs 19 lakhs (about 23,000 USD). Tata cars never had solid build quality nor blindly trusted by Indians. Please state facts with sources than making false claims
    • Retric 4y ago
      Their website lists 9 not 19 as the base price, as does multiple other sources. https://tiagoev.tatamotors.com/ https://tiagoev.tatamotors.com/
    • SECProto 4y ago
      > It doesn't cost 9 lakhs. It costs 19 lakhs The source[1] I found immediately showed a range from 8.5 to 11.8 lakh. If you're going to criticize someone for not providing facts and sources, you should do the same yourself. [1] lot of ads warning https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/electric-vehicles/tata-tiago-ev-vs-tata-tigor-ev-which-electric-ride-should-you-choose-41664690180527.html https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/electric-vehicles/tata-...
      • spaceman_2020 4y ago
        GP is right, it costs nearly 18-19 lakh on road. Auto websites are a much better source of prices. See: https://www.cardekho.com/tata/nexon-ev-prime https://www.cardekho.com/tata/nexon-ev-prime However, there are cheaper EVs available from the Tata stable, such as Tigor EV for under 12 lakh, so the point stands.
• everettp 4y ago
  This is a very narrow view that probably stems from the fact that people in the US tend to think only of Teslas and other luxury cars when they think of EVs. Low end EVs, of kinds that either wouldn't obtain road safety approval in the US or appeal to consumers who are looking for large comfort cars, are rapidly emerging and are poised to dominate China, India and other non-Western countries in coming years
• 2143 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least. In India there are some relatively cheap EVs on sale, and they're all picking up stream. By cheap, this is what I mean: the price of Tata Nexon EV is slightly over the price of Hyundai Accent (called "Verna" over here) and maybe equivalent to the price of a Kia Seltos. The Nexon EV is now a fairly common sight in Indian cities. Then there's the slightly more expensive MG ZS EV, which at this point I'm seeing on the roads fairly frequently. Haven't seen too many Hyundai Kona on the road. Tesla is unfortunately not in India yet. There are some super-expensive EV models from Mercedes and the likes, but those are very expensive. (Disclaimer: I'm NOT affiliated in any way with any of the brands I mentioned).
  • King-Aaron 4y ago
    While they are starting to sell more EVs in India, as soon as you travel even half an hour outside of a major city the infrastructure gets... rather average. While people who live in New Delhi will be able to charge their car, that's not the case in the majority of the country.
    • theshrike79 4y ago
      It's way easier to charge your EV in rural areas using local small scale wind/solar/hydro than it is to lug around immense amounts of liquid fuel to said remote areas. You don't need hectares of panels to charge an electric rickshaw or a scooter.
  • spaceman_2020 4y ago
    You have to keep in mind that India’s best selling cars are usually under the 8 lakh price barrier. EVs are not there yet, but its only a matter of time before they go under that mark.
    • kumarvvr 4y ago
      Tata is releasing Tiago EV in 2023, starting at 8.5 lakhs.
• ngcc_hk 4y ago
  Getting gas is not easy. But have a solar or wind slowly charging an easier to maintain vechicle … why 1st world. In fact due to apartment living some cannot go there.
  • theshrike79 4y ago
    Apartment living + EV is not a technical problem, it's 100% a political/social one.
    • dmitriid 4y ago
      It's a technical problem, too. You can't just run an extension cord and happily power vehicles for an apartment block.
      • theshrike79 4y ago
        You need to run a fancy extension cord and use a professional to do it. That's pretty much it. You can spend a little extra to get load balancing if needed, the tech is multiple decades old. The only issue is people being against it politically/socially.
        • dmitriid 4y ago
          Ah yes. Let's forget about the additional load on the grid. All we have to do is run a fancy cord
          • theshrike79 4y ago
            Load management is 50+ year old technology, you don't need a javascript-powered IoT device with NFTs and Blockchain to do it. The chargers can either do it by themselves (adjust load to match hookup to grid) or the power company can manage it. Usually it's a lot easier just to manage it locally.
            • 4y ago
• 01100011 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item And that's fine. Remember, EV cars don't just compete with ICE vehicles. They compete with walkable cities, bicycles, scooters(ICE or EV), busses and other mass transit. They will face that competition even in the first-world.
• freddie_mercury 4y ago
  I live in Vietnam and we have EVs for "normal people" here. EV doesn't mean "cars". The V is for vehicles. We've had electric scooters on the roads for many years. In some cities, especially in the north they are nearly the majority of vehicles on the road. But even if you limit yourself to cars, a friend just bought a Volvo S90 Recharge electric car to drive in Ho Chi Minh City. And the first electric bus route launched earlier this year. Toyota will never be very popular in Vietnam. If anything the Kia Smile is probably the most popular car and will be for a long time.
  • onpensionsterm 4y ago
    Vietnam's transport stats are skewed by insane import and luxury taxes.
  • potatolicious 4y ago
    If there's one thing I've learned is that one shouldn't underestimate the sheer speed at which a maturing technology cheapens itself in a drive downmarket. Cars themselves went from being a rich person's curiosity to mostly-affordable to ubiquitous in the space of 50 years. Airline travel went from a luxury for the rich to broadly affordable in about ~30 years. For more recent examples see smartphones - in less than 10 years it's gone from exclusively high-end device to near-universal adoption across the world. It's often hard to figure out what technologies will stick and what will never resolve fundamental flaws - but once it sticks in the high-end market there is a good bet it will rapidly drive its way down the price scale, at a far faster speed than you might expect.
    • ballenf 4y ago
      LED bulbs is the one that still surprises me. The quality jump and price cliff from the flickery, blindness-inducing early bulbs was very fast.
      • rhino369 4y ago
        Semiconductors have HUGE upfront R&D cost, but marginal costs aren't that bad.
• tokipin 4y ago
  That's roughly my thinking on Toyota's strategy if we give them the benefit of the doubt. They want to own a larger piece of the ICE pie as it shrinks. This is a great strategy. What they might not appreciate is that the oil pie will also shrink and that both of these industries will have increasing costs across their entire supply chains as volumes diminish. Their vehicles will suffer for both ICE tech and gasoline propulsion and be completely outcompeted on cost and convenience. This will happen over a much shorter time frame than they expect. Green solutions are part of the continuing decentralization through technology and will be just as popular in developing countries as in first world countries. One practical example of this is that green tech can be financed in bite-sized chunks, compared to the large commitments needed for power plants.
• nonethewiser 4y ago
  I feel like we are also quietly ignoring their large investment into fully EV vehicles.
• onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least. How much longer are you planning to live? EVs WILL be the VAST majority of autos sold globally in 30 years. Depending on the curve, ICE vehicles could still make up the majority of vehicles on the road - but the writing for them will have been on the wall for a long time - probably within 10 years.
  • dmitriid 4y ago
    > EVs WILL be the VAST majority of autos sold globally in 30 years. They won't. You underestimate the amount of investment needed to upgrade grids, add capacity to account for EVs, and the cost of upgrade to new cars. Edit: and the cost of scaling up battery production
    • hampereddustbin 4y ago
      We already have a lot of excess capacity at night. Slowly charging EVs could even be a net-boon for required peaker plants if people could cover their own needs for the 15% of the day
• grizzles 4y ago
  It will be all electric because electric cars will be the most affordable. You can buy decent $3000 electric cars from alibaba.com today. [1] Check out this article about it. [2] [1] https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Cheapest-Chinese-Electric-Car-only-3000_62174796532.html https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Cheapest-Chinese-Elec... [2] https://electrek.co/2022/04/02/awesomely-weird-alibaba-electric-vehicle-of-the-week-3000-electric-pickup-truck-with-bed-cap/ https://electrek.co/2022/04/02/awesomely-weird-alibaba-elect...
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • vel0city 4y ago
    They're great assuming you'll never be on the road with any other 1 ton vehicle that might impact you at 30mph+. Then they're fiery death traps that you'd hope to never experience again, if you survive. EDIT: 100Ah 12V battery? So an electric golf cart, supposedly rated to go up to 50mph, with a "bed" and four seats and a lot of extra weight and drag. You're barely going to go 10 miles at 30mph in this even without four people and cargo in the bed of this "truck".
    • reidjs 4y ago
      In a perfect world 90% of those massive vehicles would be replaced by golf carts, in cities with temperate climates at least.
      • vel0city 4y ago
        Entirely depends on your point of view of a "perfect world" and the realism of that. I'd love to just have transporters entirely powered by 100% renewable energy capable to send me anywhere at light speed, but that's not the world we live in. Does a "perfect world" imply me missing birthdays? Does it imply me missing lunch with close friends? Does it imply me not taking a job outside the local bus line? Does it imply me not visiting a dying relative? If I'm limited to either entirely public transit or a vehicle which can barely do 10 miles at 30mph then yes, I'll miss many of these things.
• sanderjd 4y ago
  Why do you think this? It seems unrealistic and unsupported to me.
• seer-zig 4y ago
  Good points. Plus, there are many countries and districts where it is just not feasible. Wander into the deserts or jungles and tell me how to reliably operate and refuel EVs in those harsh environments. Toyota leads the way with offerings like the Land Cruiser, Prado, Hilux, etc.
  • hampereddustbin 4y ago
    People in hot countries still tend not to drive several hundred mile trips trough the desert, they work reasonably close to where they live. For whatever around-the-globe fun trip you can of course rent whatever you want
  • theshrike79 4y ago
    How do you refuel ICEs in harsh environments? Someone has to drive the huge tanker full of fuel over there a bunch of times a week, right? What if there's a some kind of weather event and the roads are unavailable for two weeks, how does the Land Cruiser get refueled then? With EVs people in remote locations can have local infrastructure to generate what they need locally.
    • seer-zig 4y ago
      You can carry gas tanks with you on long desert crossing trips, and refuel in minutes. How are you going to do that with an EV? Not to mention that the high heat (45+ C) might take a toll on the range of batteries.
      • theshrike79 4y ago
        I can grab a generator and jerrycans full of diesel =) But seriously, if you're doing a bunch of long desert crossing trips it's a good idea to keep using an ICE.
• chaostheory 4y ago
  There’s a reason why many countries are transitioning to EVs, and it’s not mainly for the environment. With the end of cheap oil and the rise of economical EVs from companies like Tara, I feel that you’re wrong on this one. Toyota is living in the past, and resting on their laurels just like GM did decades past. I used to be a Toyota loyalist. Not anymore when it’s clear where the future lies
• colordrops 4y ago
  This is ignorant of the facts. China has many very cheap EVs for from scooters to bikes to trikes to small carts to small cars all the way to buses, and they are used across the entire economic spectrum.
• rixrax 4y ago
  I think you're greatly underestimating momentum for the change. China and India are first hand feeling the effects of climate change, global warming, cyclical warming or what ever we want to call it. They may not be able to switch off of fossil fuels immediately, but their politicians and bureaucrats aren't walking around blindfolded either. Meanwhile russias barbaric war in Ukraine and energy (and food) blackmail has put Europe (and really rest of the world) on notice about relying on fossil fuels. Europe will never go back to fossil fuels at least in pre Feb 20200 capacity, and is on overdrive to move to non-fossil fuels. Fossils are out, electricity is in. And so will be EVs.
• JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime Lithium-ion cars, sure. The EV category, however, is far larger. Economies of scale go both ways. If "everyone other than Toyota goes completely electrics," maintaining consumer gasoline-distribution infrastructure becomes solely Toyota's problem.
• Dalewyn 4y ago
  >If you’ve stepped outside a devolved country for even a few days… I've noticed, especially recently, that a lot of tech people are hilariously out of touch with anything outside of first-world metropolitian environments.
  • llampx 4y ago
    Americans are famous for not realizing that there's an entire world outside their borders. They think everyone needs to go 80 mph on the highway, sorry _freeway_ for 1-2 hours to get to their job.
    • Dalewyn 4y ago
      It's not necessarily Americans. For example, anytime I see someone espousing the virtues of EVs and lambasting pickup trucks and SUVs, or how <popular> infrastructure should be just erected, nearly every time they are only concerned/knowledgable with city life and don't have a single clue what life in rural/undeveloped regions are like. Sometimes I wonder if they even understand how the world functions in general. Incidentally, yes, some people do need to drive an hour or two down the freeway to commute. Not everyone has the luxury of, nor necessarily likes, city life with decent public transport and tight population density.
      • sofixa 4y ago
        You can have decent public transport with low population density, it just costs more (but probably less, or at least not more by a lot, than alternatives, if all externalities are included). Switzerland has villages of hundreds of people served by regular frequent rail (and it's pretty much the norm). Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU, has that too (in very specific cases, not as a general rule, but still).
      • llampx 4y ago
        Most of the world's population lives in cities, and the trend shows no sign of abating, even with the pandemic. It is completely fair to prioritize energy and land usage there. A rural/suburban lifestyle where you commute hours a day is inherently energy-intensive, and the rising price of oil is going to put a serious cramp in the lifestyles of wannabe ranchers. Not to mention that roads and oil is pretty seriously subsidized by governments as they are essential for commerce. What happens when oil gets too expensive even after subsidies? Let's see. So far the SPR of the US has had the biggest drawdown in its history just in 2022 in an attempt to rein in the price of oil. I daresay that ends with the Midterms.
• chrischen 4y ago
  Android is doing well in non-first world countries and Android takes a ridiculously small portion of the global handset profits.
• petre 4y ago
  > Toyota is going to be the monopoly automaker in every underdeveloped country and will be laughing all the way to the bank You are probably aware that ICE vehicles can run on LPG or hydrogen and even diesel cars can run on synthetic dimethyl ether (DME). A PHEV with a 10 kWh battery or an EV with a small backup combustion generator make total sense as one can charge at home with a wall charger. Use the car regularily for urban trips of less than 50 km and run on some sort of fuel when one needs extended range for extraurban trips. Renault did exactly this with the new Captur PHEV. In markets where suffcient H2 infrastructure becomes available, automakers could sell a variant with a H2 tuned engine and fuel tank, in other markets they could continue to sell the gas version or gas/LPG. Of course, if one wants people to use LPG rather then gas, the gas tank can be made smaller as it's only required at power startup. Others automakers targeting first world countries with sufficient H2 infrastructure will use fuel cells combined with a smaller battery to accomplish the same thing and fully ditch the ICE. I too think Toyoda-san has the right market approach. They also have a headstart in H2 tech.
  • llampx 4y ago
    Hydrogen is a totally different beast than LPG or NG, needing much different fuel lines and engines.
    • petre 4y ago
      Toyota has demonstrated this on the Corolla H2 Concept. Their CEO, Akio Toyoda also raced this car to emphasize safety. The engine is not fundamentally different from e regular ICE engine, probably other seals, fuel lines and injectors. A quote from the press release[1]: The car utilizes the turbocharged inline-3-cylinder engine from the GR Yaris, but with a few alterations to accommodate the hydrogen fuel. Because the hydrogen is delivered in pressurized gas form, the same kind used in its Mirai FCEVs, Toyota teamed with Denso to develop special fuel injectors that could safely and efficiently introduce the hydrogen—which has a higher ignition temperature than gasoline and eight times the combustion speed—into the combustion chambers. “Controlling abnormal combustion is the key to hydrogen engines,” said Naoyuki Sakamoto, the Chief Engineer of the project. “The abnormal combustion has the potential to add stress to the engine hardware. Therefore, we developed high-heat parts as well as adjusted the ignition timing and fuel ratio for the Corolla Sport H2 Concept.” 1. https://pressroom.toyota.com/the-familiarity-of-sound-sensation-without-all-of-the-carbon-toyota-refines-its-hydrogen-engine-corolla-concept/ https://pressroom.toyota.com/the-familiarity-of-sound-sensat...
• hliyan 4y ago
  I'm from Sri Lanka and Nissan Leafs are everywhere. Even I used to drive one a while back. My brother still drives one.
• srg0 4y ago
  > EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least I disagree. iPhone remained a first world item. Smartphones are being adopted even in the poorest countries. I'd argue that it's in the third world where the advantages of the EV are particularly important. Lower operating costs, simpler maintenance, local power sources. Most of the developing world is where there is a lot of solar radiation. Solar PV has already the lowest generation costs. It's already the power source that requires the least capital investments, and works the best in the regions with underdeveloped infrastructure (see stories about Afghan farmers). Yes, 50K vehicles are too expensive for countries with a GDP of < 10K per capita. They are even too expensive for most of the EU. But eventually the cost parity will be reached, and at some point it will be more economical to produce budget and low margin EVs than to support a legacy supply chain of ICE vehicles. Even the bleakest estimates predict EV cost parity in 10 years. 20 years for nearly complete fleet replacement. So in 30 years or so an ICE vehicle will be like a steam engine. TCO parity will happen sooner, and most vehicles are replaced after 10 years, so the majority of the cars will be EVs in 15 years or so (in high GDP countries). And if the majority of the cars produced are EVs, and they are less expensive, the developing world will switch too.
• Renaud 4y ago
  You need to factor in that China is pushing heavily for EV and Chinese car manufacturers will handle part of the demand for cheaper EV in China and other countries. Same for India, Tata will probably not stop making combustion engines for a while but they will have to produce cheap EV for their market and abroad. Toyota may resist for a while but they will lose market share in luxury and middle-range cars as combustion engines get banned or at least restricted in wealthy countries and will remain too expensive for emerging markets. So Toyota may end up producing the cheaper models of ICE cars only.
• torginus 4y ago
  I think once they figure out self-driving, car ownership will plummet and most family cars will be replaced with self-driving taxis and shuttles, which will be electric. Society subsidizes car ownership to an extreme degree, from the environmental impact, parking space to road infrastructure etc. A lot of people live in cities, and in a lot of cities, there is just not enough space for cars.
  • Workaccount2 4y ago
    There is no way humans give up control over their own vehicle. This isn't a practical issue it's a psychological one.
• WorldMaker 4y ago
  In truly underdeveloped countries, the gas infrastructure is worse than the electric grid. EVs give the country an excuse to focus on one infrastructure instead of two. Underdeveloped countries are in a decent place to leapfrog the developed world on EV adoption because there's less reliance/inertia in existing gas infrastructure and vehicles. (Just as some underdeveloped countries have been able to jump over transitionary steps in internet infrastructure and where they are seeing investments in internet infrastructure it is often faster on average than developed world averages because they jump straight to fiber everywhere skipping over many copper wire intermediaries.)