16 ms·

A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth

200 points by gok 4y ago

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
I want to agree with this conclusion, but it feels like the GDP being accurate, and the GDP not being a good reflection of citizen welfare is both more likely and more telling. I used to love the Economist but they appear to have gone downhill more recently and those graphs seem designed to make a specific point rather than present data objectively. edit: after fighting my way past the paywall, this was poorer than I suspected: > Assuming that the most democratic countries reported growth figures accurately, he then used the satellite data to estimate if other countries under- or over-stated theirs. So they just graphed the assumption as if it was data, rather than an assumption. Though now I'm wondering why Australia isn't considered democratic enough to have their GDP taken as correct.
- dereg 4y ago
  I agree with your criticism. I want to add one more: GDP is a measure of activity. Measuring lights on satellite images is a state. So somehow this study is correlating stock (# of lights) to a flow (economic activity). Seems like a pretty basic comparison error. There have to be a gazillion other caveats - something stinks about this study. This content sings to many of their readers who cant moss an opportunity to tell others that china’s books are cooked.
  - ETH_start 4y ago
    This doesn't measure lights (stock). It measures light (the emission). This is an active process of the stock of lights, emitting light, and might correlate closely with other economic activity.
- achow 4y ago
  And also the question is what data from satellite? Electricity usage may not be all encompassing indicator; Ex. increase in cultivated area, or more production from same land parcel (by using fertilizers, pesticides, modern techniques) will not show up as corresponding increase in electricity usage at night.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    I believe the state of the art in these things do mix multiple different types of satellite data, night time lights is just the longest dataset we have since even crappy old satelittes could capture it. Several parallels with the various reconstructions of earth's atmosphere via proxies like tree rings and ice cores and its later recalibration with satellite measures.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- thyrsus 4y ago
  The chart (currently; it might have been updated) does show both reported GDP and light-at-night inferred GDP for "free" economies. The article doesn't say explicitly, but we must assume they're using a linear mapping between the two, since there are minor discrepancies in the "free" economies (as one expects with necessarily noisy data).
- visarga 4y ago
  I was expecting a "light intensity vs GDP" graph to see if they really correlate.
- spuz 4y ago
  > So they just graphed the assumption as if it was data, rather than an assumption. Many studies make an assumption and then explore the implications of that assumption. They are not claiming that democratic countries have accurate official GDP figures. They are simply saying: if democratic countries' GDP figures are accurate then the correlation factor between GDP and light output is X. If the correlation factor between GDP and light output is X for all countries (another assumption) then the discrepancy between expected GDP and official GDP is Y. That's all they are saying, they are not presenting made up data as facts.
  - riedel 4y ago
    Not only that the GDPR must be reported in the same way but also that the system be comparable/generalisable. The free country correlation pretty much is the 'traing error' here. If there is e.g. a systematic bias with light and freedom one also might have a problem. Also the pretty much assume a linear model as the GDPR is much higher in the 'free' world. Still it is actually good to have such a proxy measures. Wonder if authoritarian regimes will now have dedicated lighting development strategies...
- darawk 4y ago
  It might be useful to note that the Economist did not do this research. This is a summary of a study by an academic economist: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3882062 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3882062 It's likely your questions are answered therein. EDIT: Skimming it briefly it seems like section 4, equation 4 is relevant to your criticism. It seems to be allowing for some level of independence in the internal relationship between a country's gdp growth and light, and trying to capture the parameter of interest in part fromm the within-country variation over time.
- notahacker 4y ago
  Assume (I don't have an Economist sub) it's based off this paper https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/BFI_WP_2021-78.pdf https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/BFI_WP_2... Others include this from 2015 https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/isqu.12143 https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/isqu.12143 What the data explicitly shows is that night light intensity increased faster than GDP increased in countries classed as "free" than countries classed as "non-free". (the model itself makes no assumptions that the most democratic countries report growth figures accurately. An alternative interpretation equally compatible with the data is that democratic countries deliberately underreport their GDP growth, but that's a lot sillier than assuming autocracies lie, or exaggerate more) The obvious perturbing factor is that countries classed as "non-free" also tend to start off poorer and more inegalitarian (the link between the two is generally assumed causal, but both ways causal) so the oilfields raking in cash doesn't necessarily translate to more electricity for the average citizen, and the countries classed as non-free are on average growing faster (even after taking into account the estimated inflation of the GDP figure) and since it's not estimated on a per capita basis the GDP figure grows through population growth. Economists can try to control for this, but controls aren't perfect. The "free" countries are also a relatively homogenous group of countries which started relatively wealthy and experienced modest GDP growth with relatively little disruption or demographic change. Satellite light data also isn't a particularly great proxy for citizen welfare. It's an indicator as it's broadly proportional to increased access to electricity (and its regional distribution) and light intensity growth correlates well with GDP growth. But those "free" countries tended to have affordable household lighting everywhere anyway; the extra light being pumped into mall car parks and advertising hoardings and bigger traffic jams are pretty loosely linked to the welfare improvements we've experienced since 1991.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    Yes, I agree, you can get a more nuanced take on what I'm getting at by looking at papers that just ask the question: "Can we measure GDP from space?". And the answer is, yeah kind of, but with various caveats. And looking at those that ask "can we measure human welfare with GDP?" And the answer is, yeah kind of, but with various caveats. This paper builds on both of those and somewhat sweeps the caveats under the rug to make a point about autocracies. It feels like a PR pitch for "free markets", which I broadly agree with, but still don't want to see badly drawn graphs of. I think it was the naming of only a few countries that really set of my "how to lie with graphs" alarm.
- jialutu 4y ago
  > it feels like the GDP being accurate This has been my personal gripe for a long time now! Imagine that I needed to borrow £1000 from my mum, she lends me that money, and then I return that much back to her shortly after; therefore generating £2000 in GDP. It excludes the reason why I needed to borrow that money, ie it could be that I am in dire economic situation, and could not pay for essentials, therefore this GDP growth is due to poverty rather than growth! Additionally, in the US, there is a thing called "imputed GDP", which is essentially GDP that is not realised due to an owned property being lived in and not being rented out. This generally accounts for around 15% of US's GDP https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/488 https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/488 I guess companies such as Black Rock seem to be doing good for the GDP by buying people's properties and then renting it back to them. tl;dr I am also not a fan of purely looking at GDP as an accurate metric for the economy.
- Quarrel 4y ago
  > I'm wondering why Australia isn't considered democratic enough to have their GDP taken as correct. Australia is clearly shown in the "Free Countries" graph.
dereg 4y ago
https://archive.ph/GVCgW https://archive.ph/GVCgW
pazimzadeh 4y ago
> Assuming that the most democratic countries reported growth figures accurately I'm not sure you can assume that/would like more detail on their assumptions, even though I have also heard that the trains running on time thing is a myth/momentum from previous administration. I'm not convinced that we can meaningfully quantify the impact of each president on the country when the legislative branches are often not in sync enough to get anything done and everything is being sabotaged by the opposing team. Although I will admit it was uncanny how much the stock market went up right after Donald Duck got elected.
- IIAOPSW 4y ago
  It doesn't matter if they are both lying, because if they are the study would still show if the magnitude of the lie in dictatorships is larger.
- vagrantJin 4y ago
  > Donald Duck got elected. Hes a president with conservative backing. Thats always good for business.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    That's a lie you've been told for a long time. "Trickle-down economics" never worked. Mango Mussolini's trade policies and disastrous handling of the COVID pandemic have probably more than wiped out the tax cuts even for the richest companies, much less the average citizen.
    - vagrantJin 4y ago
      Nope. I said nothong about trickle down economics. Only that an elected president with conservative backing will always be percieved as good for business hence the up tick in business confidence.
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    This book never gets old: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Read_Donald_Duck https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Read_Donald_Duck
bell-cot 4y ago
While "authoritarian governments" would be better than "dictators", this is SO not news. A slightly less superficial article might note how such lies "naturally" arise in autocratic systems - where local officials are both under pressure to report good economic results, and have enough power to lie. That is how tens of millions of Chinese starved to death in the Three Years of Great Famine ~1960. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine ) Local officials reported excellent harvests of food crops, and Chairman Mao's central government generally tried to do the right things - but sustaining human life requires that the food "on the books" actually exists.
- alfiedotwtf 4y ago
  > this is so not news I originally read about this in the Potemkin Village Gazette :)
- drieddust 4y ago
- arcticbull 4y ago
  Curious your thinking as to how that relates to the Colorado River Compact's allocation of water [1]. The basis of the compact in 1922 mis-calculated the amount of water that was actually available to be drawn, and since then the states have found out that this was in fact very inaccurate. In recent renegotiations, this was solved by adding imaginary water onto the books instead of actually figuring out a meaningful solution and confronting reality. I recall the governor of Utah suggesting un-ironically praying for rain. I suspect that this kind of lie is more than just a 'free' vs 'authoritarian' issue, but rather some kind of artifact of human nature. It seems a little bit too easy to attribute this to the 'other' when there's plenty of examples at home where it's happening right out in the open. John McCain wanted this sorted in 2008 - 14 years ago. After all one would imagine that sustaining human life requires that the water "on the books" actually exists, too, no? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Compact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Compact
  - 4y ago
willyt 4y ago
My local council has been replacing street lights with ones that don’t leak light upwards and also only turn on full brightness when you walk close to them. I wonder if other places have done this to an extent that would affect the data.
- blowski 4y ago
  I imagine the model assumes all countries are adopting such technologies at the same time, so the base rate will be consistent.
- benj111 4y ago
  On the other hand, Jevons paradox and less would suggest we're creating more light for a given GDP.
zoobab 4y ago
Politicians always lie about economics.
- unwind 4y ago
  Sure, much cynic, but isn't the entire point of the article that using objective data (satellite imagery) it clearly looks as if politicians/leaders/whatever in less free countries lie more? That was my takeaway at least, and it's somehow more interesting in my opinion.
roenxi 4y ago
This goes to a little-appreciated fact about democracy - the evidence suggests that while there is a common perception that democracy has failed in any given year, and that any given instance of incompetence will surely sink us all this time. But over time it consistently turns out that democracies are making consistently better decisions than the authoritarians. Similar to how liberty usually gets much better results but high-status people refuse to accept that the plebs can make decisions for themselves. I think people just can't handle the complexity of distributed decision making, so are consistently biased to believe that small, centralised & appointed authorities make better decisions than the hive mind. Similarly to how everyone knows how a kingdom works, but people get hazy really quickly on how the successes of the worlds many parliamentary or republican systems of government actually function. Dictators cannot manage multiple constraints simultaneously. Democracy is just better at resource allocation. Insofar as somewhere like China remains ahead of somewhere like India, I think it depends on the ability of the CCP to simulate a typical democracy internally. Once groupthink takes hold, without a release valve to turn over the people, I don't see how a government recovers.
- planetsprite 4y ago
  Human thinking naturally aligns towards authoritarianism, winner-takes-all, strict unbreakable hierarchies. The only reason democracies are so common in the world nowadays is that they end up being so successful, even the minority accidental democracies end up having a disproportionate influence and growth over the span of history.
  - goodpoint 4y ago
    > Human thinking naturally aligns... Citation needed.
    - actually_a_dog 4y ago
      You're wasting your breath. There is so much "citation needed" going on in this entire comments section it's pathetic. Practically every statement everyone is making is completely unsourced. I expected better when I clicked through.
bayesian_horse 4y ago
I'm shocked!!
- amelius 4y ago
  In other news, Apple lies about AppStore sales.
t0bia_s 4y ago
I don't understand, what data are exactly collected by satellites? Amount of light at night?
- zhdc1 4y ago
  The author of the original study used VIIRS, which is essentially a large CCD sensor(s) on the Soumi-NPP weather satellite. The overview for the actual data product is at: https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/missions-and-measurements/products/VNP46A2/ https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/missions-and-measurem... There are a couple of different VNP46 products, but A2 is iirc usually the one used in academic research.
graycat 4y ago
> A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth The lights -- nice source of data! So, this claim is about "dictators" and "economic growth". So, I think of a joke, although with maybe some truth: Dictators are politicians. Economic growth is a political issue. Since politicians lie about political issues, as just a special case dictators lie about economic growth! Ha ha. But the fraction of politicians I believe are lying is so large, I'm not laughing at my own joke.
enviclash 4y ago
Lights are overrated as proxy. I would like to see the ecosystem of contracts and transactions, but this is not possible. Phone calls could be a better proxy? I saw a paper using them in Scientific Reports.
- mrtksn 4y ago
  How do you count number of calls in a dictators country?
  - enviclash 4y ago
    Indeed. I saw they were available in a few countries only.
Sin2x 4y ago
People and industries do not generally operate at nighttime, especially in more conservative societies. How exactly could this be an indicator of economic efficiency?
- zhdc1 4y ago
  They do, though. Many factories, railways, transportation hubs, ports, &c operate 24x7. Particularly in countries where manufacturing is the predominant industry. You can also use nighttime light data to learn about levels and patterns of urban growth. Compare VIIRS imagery for India in 2013 with 2022. The issue is whether there's a strong correlation between GDP and nighttime light data in all regions. There's a weak correlation (a lot has been published on this) and it's a good tool if you want to identify sharp, short term changes one way or the other. It's arguable, though, whether it's an appropriate proxy for a lot of different regions/countries with different economic models.
graycat 4y ago
Sure, I'm a native born US citizen, and I love, adore, honor, respect ... thank lucky stars for our Constitution. I have a copy on my main computer and search its contents frequently, especially while reading the news. So, as a simple thinking, pure/applied math, computer, business guy, I think of our government as a democracy where (1) the Constitution's 1st Amendment free press provides "informed citizens" and (2) the rest of our Constitution says we citizens, INFORMED citizens, get to vote. And the free press is credible because there is a lot of competition in the press, and any mistakes will severely hurt the circulation and revenue. Simple view. Yup, too simple: It seems to me that somehow not much of the free press much wants to be credible -- at least I have a tough time finding sources I regard as credible for the information for an "informed electorate". That pair of words were from Jefferson, Franklin? So, instead, best I can guess, nearly all publishers believe that it is strongly in their financial interests to dump credibility, actual accurate information, etc. in the trash, pick a political faction, some one side in a big fight, and publish stuff that faction likes to read. But, still, we have the 1st Amendment! And now with the Internet, publishers don't have to spend on ink, paper, or $10 million printing plants. Hate to suck up, but, e.g., we have Hacker News -- there I'm generally pleased and impressed! Okay, for the HN audience: With the 7+% per year inflation, why don't we have millions of US citizens demonstrating in the streets? Multiple choice: (1) They are not much bothered by the price of eggs or even gasoline in their daily activities. (2) They like what the inflation is doing for their equity in their house, farm, business. (3) So far the inflation seems to make it easier for them to get a job. (4) They believe that after prices increase by 10% or so they will stabilize. (5) They are quite busy with their own lives and see nothing much to do about the inflation, e.g., believe that demonstrations in the streets will make noise but do nothing about inflation, until the next election. (6) See all the talk, hysteria, noise, etc. about inflation in the news as not worth listing to or paying much attention to. (7) They accept the advice that in general they should concentrate on the problems they can solve and mostly forget about, or just somehow circumvent, the rest. (8) Other. Me, I don't know, would have to pick (8).
- RugnirViking 4y ago
  6 and 7, nobody cares about inflation. It is as the weather, uncaring and random. About as much changes due to wars on the other side of the planet, or large companies deciding to change their offerings for obscure reasons. (from the average person's perspective) Besides, there really isn't that much "hysteria" in the media about it, ctrl-f on cnn, fox news, bbc, etc frontpages shows only 1 result for inflation and I literally can't see where it is amongst the headlines. Life goes on
zhdc1 4y ago
I do a reasonable amount of empirical work with VIIRS VNP46A* data (the remote sensing platform and data product(s) used for the nighttime light data analysis). GDP estimates from nighttime light data are possible but often inaccurate. Before you even get into the larger issues, there are a lot of small things, such as cloud coverage, ground coverage changes, lunar illumination, &c... that have to be accounted for. It's great when you're trying to track urban development. It's good when you need quick ground truth estimates (e.g., you're looking at an area impacted by war or lockdown and you want to get a rough guess of the actual impact), and it's ok when you are looking at a country with an economic model (manufacturing/export-led) where changes in nighttime light volumes can tell you something. It's iffy if you're trying to compare a lot of different countries, with different economic models, across different time spans, and you don't have the time to accurately assess whether nighttime light data is a good proxy for GDP in each of the many regions/country <-> economic model combinations you're looking at.
- boltzmann-brain 4y ago
  they're not trying to estimate GDP though (absolute value), they're trying to estimate GDP increase (relative value). I agree estimating the absolute value would be erroneous. However, estimating an increase is less so. Other issues you mention are circumstantial - and that's why companies doing this estimation have specific experts on politics, economy, and so on. It's not just some geek with python going gdp[country] = bright_pixels * 0.18
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    >It's not just some geek with python going gdp[country] = bright_pixels * 0.18 With respect to this study, it more or less is. Go read Martinez original study from 2017 and lol at the methadology. It's rudimentary application of Henderson et. al. original work on predicting economic activity with nighttime light as proxy with all the caveates parent comment highlighted - not expert estimation. Martinez updated his study occasionally with newer data, for click bait articles like this (started with Washington Post in 2018), with no modification in methodology as far as I'm aware (have not tracked down latest revision to compare). As someone who follows PRC development closely, NBER released a paper using light data with more sophisticated analysis also from 2017 stating PRC growth being understated. NBER is one of the most influential economic think tanks. To compare credential wank as proxy for expertise, author of this paper Martinez, is assisant prof at Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. NBER paper was conducted by two current staff economists at the FED and a titled prof of economics prof at Columbia. But guess which study gets repeatedly posted in western MSM.
O__________O 4y ago
Having lights on/off at night could easily be a cultural pattern, security measure, etc. Think most telling thing to me is that democracies very clear extract value from non-democracies. Yes, economic dependencies are likely net positive, but it doesn’t change the fact that to my knowledge there are no “pure” democratic countries. While I am 100% sure the non-democracies would continue to exist without the democracies, unclear to me if the democracies would as is be able to exist without the non-democracies.
- vidarh 4y ago
  Yes, but unless those cultural patterns change differently over time, you should still be able to get estimates of growth from them.
  - JPLeRouzic 4y ago
    I agree, I live in Brittany, west of France, yet roads lights are off at night (and as someone with an interest in night sky I appreciate it)
    - unbalancedevh 4y ago
      When are the lights used, if not at night?
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - O__________O 4y ago
        >> “Reasons include the high, and still rising cost of energy, and the negative effects of light pollution on biodiversity” SOURCE: https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Why-some-French-towns-are-switching-off-their-street-lights-at-night https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Why-some...
- benj111 4y ago
programmer_dude 4y ago
https://web.archive.org/web/20221002054840/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth https://web.archive.org/web/20221002054840/https://www.econo...
T3RMINATED 4y ago
rsynnott 4y ago
I'm... a little dubious about some of their estimates. In particular Ireland, where their light-based estimate is shown as being spot on. Ireland's very high apparent GDP growth is largely structural weirdness (the economy has grown relatively fast once you filter it out, but not at the ridiculous pace that raw GDP figures would suggest), and we definitely haven't been adding lights at an extra-fast pace to keep up with it :) (More seriously, this seems like an interesting approach for developing nations, but is less likely to give useful results for developed ones.)
- Rallen89 4y ago
  wouldn't it be offset by the fact like 1/5 of the population lives in 1 city?
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    Depending on how you define 'city', more like 40%! But you'd expect that to make light-based growth estimates _worse_, really; most of the new lights will be coming on in the already-pretty-bright Greater Dublin Area, rather than the more even distribution you'd expect in a country less dominated by one city.
tpoacher 4y ago
so ... having better street lighting leads to worse GDP outcomes in democratic countries?
dhruval 4y ago
Skeptical of this data for the following reasons: 1. Ireland - has high GDP due to it being a tax haven, yet the light data is spot on. 2. Every developed country has correct light data, but none of the developing countries do. (doesn't matter how free)
- sct202 4y ago
  Their satellite based GDP model is clearly biasing towards saying all reported GDP's are overstated. There's not a single country with a satellite based GDP higher than reported, and even America's plot has a slight negative difference between reported and satellite based.
mhneu 4y ago
Dictators lie about everything. Modern (semi)fascism is built on lying. What we are seeing is co-option of liberal democracies by a minority of wealthy oligarchs that have to lie to voters in those democracies. By contrast, parties that embrace rule-of-law democracy lie much less than rightwing/fascist parties. Rule-of-law democracy is based on truthful public speech and an independent press -- to reduce lying.
- indymike 4y ago
  > By contrast, parties that embrace rule-of-law democracy lie much less than rightwing/fascist parties Most dictatorships are left wing (socialist or communist). I think the truth is that the continuum between democracy and dictatorship is a circle, and if you go far enough left or right, you eventually end up at the opposite poll.
amarant 4y ago
The article starts out with a quote about Mussolini, that brings me back. I used to live in Brazil for a while, and while there I met a girl who's last name was Mussolini. I was fascinated and asked where that name has come from, and apparently her grandfather had moved to Brazil from Italy sometime in the 40s. I was very excited to be talking with what I imagined to be a relative of such an historical figure, but she didn't understand it at all: she had no idea who Mussolini was, what he did, or why it would be interesting at all. Having grown up in Europe, and with some Italian ancestry(my grandad also left Italy in the 40s, but for Sweden instead of Brazil) it hasn't occurred to me that someone could be unaware of Benito Mussolini, much less someone who wears his last name! (God knows I'm reminded of the associations of my own Italian last name frequently enough!) At the same time I can kinda understand why her parents wouldn't talk too much about it, if they were indeed related to Benito. Always interesting to peer into the mind of someone with a background that is so different from my own, yet at the same time so very similar!
efficax 4y ago
I'd like to see this model applied to individual states or territories to confirm its accuracy. For example the GDP of Colorado is more than 5 times that of Delaware, but nighttime images of Colorado are much much darker than Delaware. What impact would that have on these results?
- nh23423fefe 4y ago
  delaware is 8x when you normalize area. 4.2 vs 32.6 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=colorado+gross+state+product+%2F+colorado+area https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=colorado+gross+state+p... https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=delaware+gross+state+product+%2F+delaware+area https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=delaware+gross+state+pr...
jtsuken 4y ago
Where is the Occam's razor? If I am a dictator sitting on an oil well, exporting more and more oil and keeping 100% of profits to myself, the GDP will still grow in line with the amount and price of oil exported. There is little correlation between what the population is doing and what the countries economic and social potential is. Isn't that in-part the definition of a dictator?
Am4TIfIsER0ppos 4y ago
What does that say about the west when they turn the lights off? I know the eco-commies around here have convinced the govt to turn off the street lights at midnight but I had no idea it was also a dog whistle for what they are doing to the economy.
JohnClark1337 4y ago

200 points by gok 4y ago

I want to agree with this conclusion, but it feels like the GDP being accurate, and the GDP not being a good reflection of citizen welfare is both more likely and more telling. I used to love the Economist but they appear to have gone downhill more recently and those graphs seem designed to make a specific point rather than present data objectively. edit: after fighting my way past the paywall, this was poorer than I suspected: > Assuming that the most democratic countries reported growth figures accurately, he then used the satellite data to estimate if other countries under- or over-stated theirs. So they just graphed the assumption as if it was data, rather than an assumption. Though now I'm wondering why Australia isn't considered democratic enough to have their GDP taken as correct.

dereg 4y ago
I agree with your criticism. I want to add one more: GDP is a measure of activity. Measuring lights on satellite images is a state. So somehow this study is correlating stock (# of lights) to a flow (economic activity). Seems like a pretty basic comparison error. There have to be a gazillion other caveats - something stinks about this study. This content sings to many of their readers who cant moss an opportunity to tell others that china’s books are cooked.
- ETH_start 4y ago
  This doesn't measure lights (stock). It measures light (the emission). This is an active process of the stock of lights, emitting light, and might correlate closely with other economic activity.
achow 4y ago
And also the question is what data from satellite? Electricity usage may not be all encompassing indicator; Ex. increase in cultivated area, or more production from same land parcel (by using fertilizers, pesticides, modern techniques) will not show up as corresponding increase in electricity usage at night.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  I believe the state of the art in these things do mix multiple different types of satellite data, night time lights is just the longest dataset we have since even crappy old satelittes could capture it. Several parallels with the various reconstructions of earth's atmosphere via proxies like tree rings and ice cores and its later recalibration with satellite measures.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
thyrsus 4y ago
The chart (currently; it might have been updated) does show both reported GDP and light-at-night inferred GDP for "free" economies. The article doesn't say explicitly, but we must assume they're using a linear mapping between the two, since there are minor discrepancies in the "free" economies (as one expects with necessarily noisy data).
visarga 4y ago
I was expecting a "light intensity vs GDP" graph to see if they really correlate.
spuz 4y ago
> So they just graphed the assumption as if it was data, rather than an assumption. Many studies make an assumption and then explore the implications of that assumption. They are not claiming that democratic countries have accurate official GDP figures. They are simply saying: if democratic countries' GDP figures are accurate then the correlation factor between GDP and light output is X. If the correlation factor between GDP and light output is X for all countries (another assumption) then the discrepancy between expected GDP and official GDP is Y. That's all they are saying, they are not presenting made up data as facts.
- riedel 4y ago
  Not only that the GDPR must be reported in the same way but also that the system be comparable/generalisable. The free country correlation pretty much is the 'traing error' here. If there is e.g. a systematic bias with light and freedom one also might have a problem. Also the pretty much assume a linear model as the GDPR is much higher in the 'free' world. Still it is actually good to have such a proxy measures. Wonder if authoritarian regimes will now have dedicated lighting development strategies...
darawk 4y ago
It might be useful to note that the Economist did not do this research. This is a summary of a study by an academic economist: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3882062 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3882062 It's likely your questions are answered therein. EDIT: Skimming it briefly it seems like section 4, equation 4 is relevant to your criticism. It seems to be allowing for some level of independence in the internal relationship between a country's gdp growth and light, and trying to capture the parameter of interest in part fromm the within-country variation over time.
notahacker 4y ago
Assume (I don't have an Economist sub) it's based off this paper https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/BFI_WP_2021-78.pdf https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/BFI_WP_2... Others include this from 2015 https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/isqu.12143 https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/isqu.12143 What the data explicitly shows is that night light intensity increased faster than GDP increased in countries classed as "free" than countries classed as "non-free". (the model itself makes no assumptions that the most democratic countries report growth figures accurately. An alternative interpretation equally compatible with the data is that democratic countries deliberately underreport their GDP growth, but that's a lot sillier than assuming autocracies lie, or exaggerate more) The obvious perturbing factor is that countries classed as "non-free" also tend to start off poorer and more inegalitarian (the link between the two is generally assumed causal, but both ways causal) so the oilfields raking in cash doesn't necessarily translate to more electricity for the average citizen, and the countries classed as non-free are on average growing faster (even after taking into account the estimated inflation of the GDP figure) and since it's not estimated on a per capita basis the GDP figure grows through population growth. Economists can try to control for this, but controls aren't perfect. The "free" countries are also a relatively homogenous group of countries which started relatively wealthy and experienced modest GDP growth with relatively little disruption or demographic change. Satellite light data also isn't a particularly great proxy for citizen welfare. It's an indicator as it's broadly proportional to increased access to electricity (and its regional distribution) and light intensity growth correlates well with GDP growth. But those "free" countries tended to have affordable household lighting everywhere anyway; the extra light being pumped into mall car parks and advertising hoardings and bigger traffic jams are pretty loosely linked to the welfare improvements we've experienced since 1991.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Yes, I agree, you can get a more nuanced take on what I'm getting at by looking at papers that just ask the question: "Can we measure GDP from space?". And the answer is, yeah kind of, but with various caveats. And looking at those that ask "can we measure human welfare with GDP?" And the answer is, yeah kind of, but with various caveats. This paper builds on both of those and somewhat sweeps the caveats under the rug to make a point about autocracies. It feels like a PR pitch for "free markets", which I broadly agree with, but still don't want to see badly drawn graphs of. I think it was the naming of only a few countries that really set of my "how to lie with graphs" alarm.
jialutu 4y ago
> it feels like the GDP being accurate This has been my personal gripe for a long time now! Imagine that I needed to borrow £1000 from my mum, she lends me that money, and then I return that much back to her shortly after; therefore generating £2000 in GDP. It excludes the reason why I needed to borrow that money, ie it could be that I am in dire economic situation, and could not pay for essentials, therefore this GDP growth is due to poverty rather than growth! Additionally, in the US, there is a thing called "imputed GDP", which is essentially GDP that is not realised due to an owned property being lived in and not being rented out. This generally accounts for around 15% of US's GDP https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/488 https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/488 I guess companies such as Black Rock seem to be doing good for the GDP by buying people's properties and then renting it back to them. tl;dr I am also not a fan of purely looking at GDP as an accurate metric for the economy.
Quarrel 4y ago
> I'm wondering why Australia isn't considered democratic enough to have their GDP taken as correct. Australia is clearly shown in the "Free Countries" graph.

dereg 4y ago

https://archive.ph/GVCgW https://archive.ph/GVCgW

pazimzadeh 4y ago

> Assuming that the most democratic countries reported growth figures accurately I'm not sure you can assume that/would like more detail on their assumptions, even though I have also heard that the trains running on time thing is a myth/momentum from previous administration. I'm not convinced that we can meaningfully quantify the impact of each president on the country when the legislative branches are often not in sync enough to get anything done and everything is being sabotaged by the opposing team. Although I will admit it was uncanny how much the stock market went up right after Donald Duck got elected.

IIAOPSW 4y ago
It doesn't matter if they are both lying, because if they are the study would still show if the magnitude of the lie in dictatorships is larger.
vagrantJin 4y ago
> Donald Duck got elected. Hes a president with conservative backing. Thats always good for business.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  That's a lie you've been told for a long time. "Trickle-down economics" never worked. Mango Mussolini's trade policies and disastrous handling of the COVID pandemic have probably more than wiped out the tax cuts even for the richest companies, much less the average citizen.
  - vagrantJin 4y ago
    Nope. I said nothong about trickle down economics. Only that an elected president with conservative backing will always be percieved as good for business hence the up tick in business confidence.
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  This book never gets old: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Read_Donald_Duck https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Read_Donald_Duck

bell-cot 4y ago

While "authoritarian governments" would be better than "dictators", this is SO not news. A slightly less superficial article might note how such lies "naturally" arise in autocratic systems - where local officials are both under pressure to report good economic results, and have enough power to lie. That is how tens of millions of Chinese starved to death in the Three Years of Great Famine ~1960. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine ) Local officials reported excellent harvests of food crops, and Chairman Mao's central government generally tried to do the right things - but sustaining human life requires that the food "on the books" actually exists.

alfiedotwtf 4y ago
> this is so not news I originally read about this in the Potemkin Village Gazette :)
drieddust 4y ago
arcticbull 4y ago
Curious your thinking as to how that relates to the Colorado River Compact's allocation of water [1]. The basis of the compact in 1922 mis-calculated the amount of water that was actually available to be drawn, and since then the states have found out that this was in fact very inaccurate. In recent renegotiations, this was solved by adding imaginary water onto the books instead of actually figuring out a meaningful solution and confronting reality. I recall the governor of Utah suggesting un-ironically praying for rain. I suspect that this kind of lie is more than just a 'free' vs 'authoritarian' issue, but rather some kind of artifact of human nature. It seems a little bit too easy to attribute this to the 'other' when there's plenty of examples at home where it's happening right out in the open. John McCain wanted this sorted in 2008 - 14 years ago. After all one would imagine that sustaining human life requires that the water "on the books" actually exists, too, no? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Compact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Compact
- 4y ago

willyt 4y ago

My local council has been replacing street lights with ones that don’t leak light upwards and also only turn on full brightness when you walk close to them. I wonder if other places have done this to an extent that would affect the data.

blowski 4y ago
I imagine the model assumes all countries are adopting such technologies at the same time, so the base rate will be consistent.
benj111 4y ago
On the other hand, Jevons paradox and less would suggest we're creating more light for a given GDP.

zoobab 4y ago

Politicians always lie about economics.

unwind 4y ago
Sure, much cynic, but isn't the entire point of the article that using objective data (satellite imagery) it clearly looks as if politicians/leaders/whatever in less free countries lie more? That was my takeaway at least, and it's somehow more interesting in my opinion.

roenxi 4y ago

This goes to a little-appreciated fact about democracy - the evidence suggests that while there is a common perception that democracy has failed in any given year, and that any given instance of incompetence will surely sink us all this time. But over time it consistently turns out that democracies are making consistently better decisions than the authoritarians. Similar to how liberty usually gets much better results but high-status people refuse to accept that the plebs can make decisions for themselves. I think people just can't handle the complexity of distributed decision making, so are consistently biased to believe that small, centralised & appointed authorities make better decisions than the hive mind. Similarly to how everyone knows how a kingdom works, but people get hazy really quickly on how the successes of the worlds many parliamentary or republican systems of government actually function. Dictators cannot manage multiple constraints simultaneously. Democracy is just better at resource allocation. Insofar as somewhere like China remains ahead of somewhere like India, I think it depends on the ability of the CCP to simulate a typical democracy internally. Once groupthink takes hold, without a release valve to turn over the people, I don't see how a government recovers.

planetsprite 4y ago
Human thinking naturally aligns towards authoritarianism, winner-takes-all, strict unbreakable hierarchies. The only reason democracies are so common in the world nowadays is that they end up being so successful, even the minority accidental democracies end up having a disproportionate influence and growth over the span of history.
- goodpoint 4y ago
  > Human thinking naturally aligns... Citation needed.
  - actually_a_dog 4y ago
    You're wasting your breath. There is so much "citation needed" going on in this entire comments section it's pathetic. Practically every statement everyone is making is completely unsourced. I expected better when I clicked through.

bayesian_horse 4y ago

I'm shocked!!

amelius 4y ago
In other news, Apple lies about AppStore sales.

t0bia_s 4y ago

I don't understand, what data are exactly collected by satellites? Amount of light at night?

zhdc1 4y ago
The author of the original study used VIIRS, which is essentially a large CCD sensor(s) on the Soumi-NPP weather satellite. The overview for the actual data product is at: https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/missions-and-measurements/products/VNP46A2/ https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/missions-and-measurem... There are a couple of different VNP46 products, but A2 is iirc usually the one used in academic research.

graycat 4y ago

> A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth The lights -- nice source of data! So, this claim is about "dictators" and "economic growth". So, I think of a joke, although with maybe some truth: Dictators are politicians. Economic growth is a political issue. Since politicians lie about political issues, as just a special case dictators lie about economic growth! Ha ha. But the fraction of politicians I believe are lying is so large, I'm not laughing at my own joke.

enviclash 4y ago

Lights are overrated as proxy. I would like to see the ecosystem of contracts and transactions, but this is not possible. Phone calls could be a better proxy? I saw a paper using them in Scientific Reports.

mrtksn 4y ago
How do you count number of calls in a dictators country?
- enviclash 4y ago
  Indeed. I saw they were available in a few countries only.

Sin2x 4y ago

People and industries do not generally operate at nighttime, especially in more conservative societies. How exactly could this be an indicator of economic efficiency?

zhdc1 4y ago
They do, though. Many factories, railways, transportation hubs, ports, &c operate 24x7. Particularly in countries where manufacturing is the predominant industry. You can also use nighttime light data to learn about levels and patterns of urban growth. Compare VIIRS imagery for India in 2013 with 2022. The issue is whether there's a strong correlation between GDP and nighttime light data in all regions. There's a weak correlation (a lot has been published on this) and it's a good tool if you want to identify sharp, short term changes one way or the other. It's arguable, though, whether it's an appropriate proxy for a lot of different regions/countries with different economic models.

graycat 4y ago

Sure, I'm a native born US citizen, and I love, adore, honor, respect ... thank lucky stars for our Constitution. I have a copy on my main computer and search its contents frequently, especially while reading the news. So, as a simple thinking, pure/applied math, computer, business guy, I think of our government as a democracy where (1) the Constitution's 1st Amendment free press provides "informed citizens" and (2) the rest of our Constitution says we citizens, INFORMED citizens, get to vote. And the free press is credible because there is a lot of competition in the press, and any mistakes will severely hurt the circulation and revenue. Simple view. Yup, too simple: It seems to me that somehow not much of the free press much wants to be credible -- at least I have a tough time finding sources I regard as credible for the information for an "informed electorate". That pair of words were from Jefferson, Franklin? So, instead, best I can guess, nearly all publishers believe that it is strongly in their financial interests to dump credibility, actual accurate information, etc. in the trash, pick a political faction, some one side in a big fight, and publish stuff that faction likes to read. But, still, we have the 1st Amendment! And now with the Internet, publishers don't have to spend on ink, paper, or $10 million printing plants. Hate to suck up, but, e.g., we have Hacker News -- there I'm generally pleased and impressed! Okay, for the HN audience: With the 7+% per year inflation, why don't we have millions of US citizens demonstrating in the streets? Multiple choice: (1) They are not much bothered by the price of eggs or even gasoline in their daily activities. (2) They like what the inflation is doing for their equity in their house, farm, business. (3) So far the inflation seems to make it easier for them to get a job. (4) They believe that after prices increase by 10% or so they will stabilize. (5) They are quite busy with their own lives and see nothing much to do about the inflation, e.g., believe that demonstrations in the streets will make noise but do nothing about inflation, until the next election. (6) See all the talk, hysteria, noise, etc. about inflation in the news as not worth listing to or paying much attention to. (7) They accept the advice that in general they should concentrate on the problems they can solve and mostly forget about, or just somehow circumvent, the rest. (8) Other. Me, I don't know, would have to pick (8).

RugnirViking 4y ago
6 and 7, nobody cares about inflation. It is as the weather, uncaring and random. About as much changes due to wars on the other side of the planet, or large companies deciding to change their offerings for obscure reasons. (from the average person's perspective) Besides, there really isn't that much "hysteria" in the media about it, ctrl-f on cnn, fox news, bbc, etc frontpages shows only 1 result for inflation and I literally can't see where it is amongst the headlines. Life goes on

zhdc1 4y ago

I do a reasonable amount of empirical work with VIIRS VNP46A* data (the remote sensing platform and data product(s) used for the nighttime light data analysis). GDP estimates from nighttime light data are possible but often inaccurate. Before you even get into the larger issues, there are a lot of small things, such as cloud coverage, ground coverage changes, lunar illumination, &c... that have to be accounted for. It's great when you're trying to track urban development. It's good when you need quick ground truth estimates (e.g., you're looking at an area impacted by war or lockdown and you want to get a rough guess of the actual impact), and it's ok when you are looking at a country with an economic model (manufacturing/export-led) where changes in nighttime light volumes can tell you something. It's iffy if you're trying to compare a lot of different countries, with different economic models, across different time spans, and you don't have the time to accurately assess whether nighttime light data is a good proxy for GDP in each of the many regions/country <-> economic model combinations you're looking at.

boltzmann-brain 4y ago
they're not trying to estimate GDP though (absolute value), they're trying to estimate GDP increase (relative value). I agree estimating the absolute value would be erroneous. However, estimating an increase is less so. Other issues you mention are circumstantial - and that's why companies doing this estimation have specific experts on politics, economy, and so on. It's not just some geek with python going gdp[country] = bright_pixels * 0.18
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >It's not just some geek with python going gdp[country] = bright_pixels * 0.18 With respect to this study, it more or less is. Go read Martinez original study from 2017 and lol at the methadology. It's rudimentary application of Henderson et. al. original work on predicting economic activity with nighttime light as proxy with all the caveates parent comment highlighted - not expert estimation. Martinez updated his study occasionally with newer data, for click bait articles like this (started with Washington Post in 2018), with no modification in methodology as far as I'm aware (have not tracked down latest revision to compare). As someone who follows PRC development closely, NBER released a paper using light data with more sophisticated analysis also from 2017 stating PRC growth being understated. NBER is one of the most influential economic think tanks. To compare credential wank as proxy for expertise, author of this paper Martinez, is assisant prof at Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. NBER paper was conducted by two current staff economists at the FED and a titled prof of economics prof at Columbia. But guess which study gets repeatedly posted in western MSM.

O__________O 4y ago

Having lights on/off at night could easily be a cultural pattern, security measure, etc. Think most telling thing to me is that democracies very clear extract value from non-democracies. Yes, economic dependencies are likely net positive, but it doesn’t change the fact that to my knowledge there are no “pure” democratic countries. While I am 100% sure the non-democracies would continue to exist without the democracies, unclear to me if the democracies would as is be able to exist without the non-democracies.

vidarh 4y ago
Yes, but unless those cultural patterns change differently over time, you should still be able to get estimates of growth from them.
- JPLeRouzic 4y ago
  I agree, I live in Brittany, west of France, yet roads lights are off at night (and as someone with an interest in night sky I appreciate it)
  - unbalancedevh 4y ago
    When are the lights used, if not at night?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - O__________O 4y ago
      >> “Reasons include the high, and still rising cost of energy, and the negative effects of light pollution on biodiversity” SOURCE: https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Why-some-French-towns-are-switching-off-their-street-lights-at-night https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Why-some...
benj111 4y ago

programmer_dude 4y ago

https://web.archive.org/web/20221002054840/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth https://web.archive.org/web/20221002054840/https://www.econo...

T3RMINATED 4y ago

rsynnott 4y ago

I'm... a little dubious about some of their estimates. In particular Ireland, where their light-based estimate is shown as being spot on. Ireland's very high apparent GDP growth is largely structural weirdness (the economy has grown relatively fast once you filter it out, but not at the ridiculous pace that raw GDP figures would suggest), and we definitely haven't been adding lights at an extra-fast pace to keep up with it :) (More seriously, this seems like an interesting approach for developing nations, but is less likely to give useful results for developed ones.)

Rallen89 4y ago
wouldn't it be offset by the fact like 1/5 of the population lives in 1 city?
- rsynnott 4y ago
  Depending on how you define 'city', more like 40%! But you'd expect that to make light-based growth estimates _worse_, really; most of the new lights will be coming on in the already-pretty-bright Greater Dublin Area, rather than the more even distribution you'd expect in a country less dominated by one city.

tpoacher 4y ago

so ... having better street lighting leads to worse GDP outcomes in democratic countries?

dhruval 4y ago

Skeptical of this data for the following reasons: 1. Ireland - has high GDP due to it being a tax haven, yet the light data is spot on. 2. Every developed country has correct light data, but none of the developing countries do. (doesn't matter how free)

sct202 4y ago
Their satellite based GDP model is clearly biasing towards saying all reported GDP's are overstated. There's not a single country with a satellite based GDP higher than reported, and even America's plot has a slight negative difference between reported and satellite based.

mhneu 4y ago

Dictators lie about everything. Modern (semi)fascism is built on lying. What we are seeing is co-option of liberal democracies by a minority of wealthy oligarchs that have to lie to voters in those democracies. By contrast, parties that embrace rule-of-law democracy lie much less than rightwing/fascist parties. Rule-of-law democracy is based on truthful public speech and an independent press -- to reduce lying.

indymike 4y ago
> By contrast, parties that embrace rule-of-law democracy lie much less than rightwing/fascist parties Most dictatorships are left wing (socialist or communist). I think the truth is that the continuum between democracy and dictatorship is a circle, and if you go far enough left or right, you eventually end up at the opposite poll.

amarant 4y ago

The article starts out with a quote about Mussolini, that brings me back. I used to live in Brazil for a while, and while there I met a girl who's last name was Mussolini. I was fascinated and asked where that name has come from, and apparently her grandfather had moved to Brazil from Italy sometime in the 40s. I was very excited to be talking with what I imagined to be a relative of such an historical figure, but she didn't understand it at all: she had no idea who Mussolini was, what he did, or why it would be interesting at all. Having grown up in Europe, and with some Italian ancestry(my grandad also left Italy in the 40s, but for Sweden instead of Brazil) it hasn't occurred to me that someone could be unaware of Benito Mussolini, much less someone who wears his last name! (God knows I'm reminded of the associations of my own Italian last name frequently enough!) At the same time I can kinda understand why her parents wouldn't talk too much about it, if they were indeed related to Benito. Always interesting to peer into the mind of someone with a background that is so different from my own, yet at the same time so very similar!

efficax 4y ago

I'd like to see this model applied to individual states or territories to confirm its accuracy. For example the GDP of Colorado is more than 5 times that of Delaware, but nighttime images of Colorado are much much darker than Delaware. What impact would that have on these results?

nh23423fefe 4y ago
delaware is 8x when you normalize area. 4.2 vs 32.6 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=colorado+gross+state+product+%2F+colorado+area https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=colorado+gross+state+p... https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=delaware+gross+state+product+%2F+delaware+area https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=delaware+gross+state+pr...

jtsuken 4y ago

Where is the Occam's razor? If I am a dictator sitting on an oil well, exporting more and more oil and keeping 100% of profits to myself, the GDP will still grow in line with the amount and price of oil exported. There is little correlation between what the population is doing and what the countries economic and social potential is. Isn't that in-part the definition of a dictator?

Am4TIfIsER0ppos 4y ago

What does that say about the west when they turn the lights off? I know the eco-commies around here have convinced the govt to turn off the street lights at midnight but I had no idea it was also a dog whistle for what they are doing to the economy.

JohnClark1337 4y ago