10 ms·

Pessimism is a barrier to progress

171 points by kiyanwang 4y ago

jschveibinz 4y ago
If I could only upvote this ten thousand times.
- dazc 4y ago
  What's the point?
amelius 4y ago
But I think pessimists generally have better humor.
gherkinnn 4y ago
As Karl Popper beautifully but it: optimism as a duty.
- andrewgleave 4y ago
  Followed by Deutsch: All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge.
gw99 4y ago
Conversely optimism can waste resources on unworkable progress which could have been applied to workable progress. Reality is way more nuanced than single perspectives.
- chubs 4y ago
  Maybe it's both? Say, for some potential project, you rate it X on the pessimism/optimism scale. If you're too pessimistic, you won't attempt it, even though it would have worked out nicely! But if you're too optimistic, you'll waste time attempting it even though it has no chance of success. Perhaps the ideal is to be able to correctly assess the chance of success of projects, and then you can make an accurate allocation of effort :)
- have_faith 4y ago
  Traversing nuance can be debilitating for many people. I think over-optimism and going gung-ho can be a good strategy. Not a strategy that comes naturally to me of course, I've wasted many hours/days/weeks trying to figure out the optimal way to do something taking into consideration all of the nuances at play.
- hardlianotion 4y ago
  Reminds me of a version Pandora's Box story. Pandora opens a box of furies on the world, closes it too late in a panic, then hears a little voice in the box, pleading to be let out. In one version, Pandora lets out Hope, who acts as a balm to the pain and trouble caused by the furies. In another version, false Hope is the worst fury of all - a niggling voice that drives you on when there is no possibility of success.
- DoctorDabadedoo 4y ago
  That's survivorship bias right there. We mostly hear of successful stories, where grinding, blood and tears paid off and have an amazing story to tell. For each one of those there are countless others that didn't work out because the conditions were not there and there is no pride/gain in sharing that to the same extent.
- endorphine 4y ago
  This doesn't negate the value of optimism though, which is what this article is about. Yes, there's a price to pay for optimism, but the alternative is much more costlier - I think this is the premise of this article. > Reality is way more nuanced than single perspectives. That's a truism, I believe.
kixxauth 4y ago
I've considered myself an optimist for most of my life. But, starting in about 2014 I started to find myself being more of a pessimist more of the time. It got to the point in 2020 where I found myself pessimistic about pretty much everything. You know what I noticed? It takes a lot of energy to be pessimistic and pissed off all the time. So, instead, I'm trying to remain focused and motivated by the wrongs I would like to see made right. I'm picking problems which I think I can positively impact. And while I'm not optimistic about much of it, neither am I succumbing to a pessimistic view which leads to not taking action. It's not binary.
- lexapro 4y ago
  What has fundamentally changed since 2014? Or is it the lack of change? Or did you just get older?
  - kixxauth 4y ago
    Good question. That made me think about it. Why did it start to change for me in 2014? Posted my initial thoughts above
- mozey 4y ago
  "People mistakenly see optimism as an excuse for inaction. They think that it’s pessimism that drives change, and optimism that keeps us where we are. The opposite is true. Optimists are the ones that move us forward" Exactly, it's not binary. Some pessimism is healthy, "the ones that speak truth to power". However, complaining without offering solutions is pointless. Good on you for following up, and trying to be optimistic about some of your solutions.
- TheCapeGreek 4y ago
  I've turned to optimism this year as well, after being a lifelong pessimist. I realised the same - it takes up way too much energy and I end up doing nothing. Either not stressing all the time will make me do more, or at least I'll feel better. That's still a win for my mental health if nothing else. I'm still well aware of all the problems around me, and try to help where I can, but beyond that point I maintain some personal distance.
PeterStuer 4y ago
You might want to click through a few times on this. Basically this is WEF propaganda saying how billionaires are good for the world, and urge you not to get in their way with criticism or be labeled a doomsayer, negative Andy or 'pessimist'.
- jollybean 4y ago
  That is definitely not what this article is.
  - PeterStuer 4y ago
    Have you read the Gates foundation funded IPSOS reports it references?
- worldsayshi 4y ago
  I'm definitely on the left side of the political spectrum. But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. "Speaking truth to power" is not really working because power doesn't care. Organizing seldom leads anywhere because it's just interpreted as more of "speaking truth to power" through protest. More critique. If a power structure is bad and it doesn't listen to you yelling louder doesn't really work. Complaining doesn't work. There needs to be something positive. Something that creates an alternative. But somehow the right owns the idea of entrepreneurship and unions are out of fashion and have maybe stagnated as a concept so the left is stuck protesting. /Rant
  - sitkack 4y ago
    > But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. You realize that this is rhetorical scam to prevent the questioning of action and the suppression of dissent? The left has plenty of good ideas on how to constructively corral the greed and stupidity of the right. And no unions are not out of fashion.
alchemist1e9 4y ago
Pessimism provides reasons not to do something, that’s the real reason it’s popular, it’s intellectual excuses for laziness.
jollybean 4y ago
Just the opposite, I see empathetic, gushing, ridiculous cotton candy optimisim all over places like LinkedIn and the corporate world. Everybody Smile! There isn't nearly enough contention, questioning, satire (notice how SNL never really goes for that) etc.. Marc Benioff spends the entirety of his time virtue signalling about how he is saving LGBT refugees from this or that, while superficially that's nice, it's ultra narcissistic PR and self aggrandization to use those people as tools for corporate branding. Nobody calls him out. On the contrary, I see a lot of dour young people, with kind of a 'lack of faith' in the general sense, which is really odd, and I suggest maybe a new concept in the west. When I was very young we had the 'Cold War' with nukes starring right at us and we were full of ... gumption, positivity, pride, goodwill, hope etc.. Finally - I don't think positivity/pessimism matters that that much - you have to be a 'strong believer' in some capacity to innovate, the rest is head games.
- foldr 4y ago
  >Marc Benioff spends the entirety of his time virtue signalling about how he is saving LGBT refugees from this or that, while superficially that's nice, it's ultra narcissistic PR and self aggrandization to use those people as tools for corporate branding. Nobody calls him out. I don't think this sort of cynicism about LGBT rights activism is helpful. If we want to make progress in this area, we need support from all sectors of society. That definitely includes people who aren't saints and who don't act from wholly disinterested and pure motives. Whatever his motives (and I can't read his mind – can you?), Marc Benioff did something substantial to support LGBT rights when many other CEOs did not. There's no objective content to the accusation of "virtue signalling". It's a zero-effort means of objecting to whatever kind of activism someone doesn't like. Instead of making a substantive criticism of the activism itself, just jump to uncharitable conclusions about the person's inner motivations.
  - hoseja 4y ago
    Why do we want that? We're well past the point of diminishing returns on that particular obsession.
cercatrova 4y ago
This is why I worry about the doomerism, especially by young people, I see online so often. Thankfully, stepping out of the bubbles that are Twitter and Reddit, it's not nearly as common to see in the real world. Just one more reason not to (unproductively) use these platforms.
- johnaspden 4y ago
  But muh perfectly predictable catastrophe a moderately intelligent twelve year old could see coming and that we could avoid by just not doing that, that we're blundering into because our short-term and long-term incentives are not well aligned, that will destroy the world without a shadow of a doubt!
  - cercatrova 4y ago
    For real. So much of their thought process is predicated on wanting to tear down entirely the system and build something new, without even considering why it's like that in the first place. It leads me to think they don't have much real world experience, which, being young people, is accurate. It's the societal version of Chesterton's fence.
davidork 4y ago
hope for the best, plan for the worst.
- js8 4y ago
  Be pesimistic in your predictions but optimistic in your actions.
janmarsal 4y ago
>People mistakenly see optimism as an excuse for inaction. They think that it’s pessimism that drives change, and optimism that keeps us where we are. The opposite is true. Optimists are the ones that move us forward. Wait, what? Who thinks that way? This part is even highlighted in the article. Even blind optimism is seen as something that gives results. Sure it fails 99% of the time and a pessimist would think he will be part of the 99% but throwing things at the wall to see what sticks is a valid strategy for progress. I can't be the only pessimist who thinks that most successful people are just lucky idiots who went along with their foolishly risky idea and somehow managed to make it work. Isn't that the most common coping strategy for the average Joe? I can't be a black sheep, right? Optimists get all the chicks, and pessimists are bitter about it.
mupuff1234 4y ago
> There's an "optimism stigma" that's pervasive throughout society. Funny, I'd say it's quite the opposite, you aren't allowed to say anything negative or you'd be labeled as a "downer". Everything nowadays is "amazing" and "transformative".
- Version467 4y ago
  Soo maybe it's neither and just heavily dependent on a) the social circles you are a part of, and b) your personal bias towards pessimism/optimism? It's pure speculation, but it feels much more plausible than a society wide bias towards one or the other.
- blooalien 4y ago
  My own personal experience is that every single time I try to be positive about changing anything for the better in any way, the vast majority of humans I voice any "optimism" to are hell-bent on beating that "naïvety" out of me. The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all, but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone. All the technology in the world does only harm if the only thing people want to do with it is "weaponize" it in the service of greed and power-lust. There's nothing "amazing" or "transformative" about repeating the same old mistakes humanity's been guilty of since pretty much the dawn of "civilization". Perhaps instead of actively trying to find excuses to dissuade "optimists" from even trying, society might be better off trying to teach that supporting good ideas that benefit everyone is a good thing, not bad…
  - v-erne 4y ago
    I am low energy person (at least for now - its a medical thing that perhaps will be fixed some day). When I hear "positive" people that force a change for the sake of change I know that this will probably mean that I will have to spend the last of my depleted energy resources on this naive persons dummy ideas that are not backed up by experience and insight. And this instantly changes me into pesimist that tries to test the other person if he thought it out, did due dilligence and spend his own energy first before he tries to use my. This is simply a defense mechanism that protects me from people that have aboundance of energy and do no understands that other are not like them. And most good ideas is shit - in real world only execution and timing matters.
foldr 4y ago
We're an emotionally obsessed culture. You see this in management culture too. Everything is thought to hang on people having the right attitude and the right emotional state. I suspect that on a large scale these emotional states don't make much difference to anything (although of course they're very important on the level of individual people).
Gravityloss 4y ago
It's like the caricature roles in a football team. Offense is optimists, they run to good shooting positions in case the ball comes there. Most of their running is in vain, yet they have to do it every time. They get praise if they make a goal, and if the opponent scores, it doesn't make a difference to them personally or affect their career. Defense is pessimists, they try to prevent the opponent from scoring. They for example have to sometimes commit a tactical fault in order to prevent the opponent from getting to a dangerous position where they could score a goal. They have to guard opponent offense players, even if the ball never comes near. They are criticized if the opponent makes a goal and they don't get credit for their team's offense scoring goals. So, one thinks a good thing might happen and tries to seize the opportunity. The other one thinks a bad thing might happen and tries to make sure it is prevented. Both are estimating an uncertain future and a lot of their work goes to waste - but only in hindsight. Both are needed for a team to win the championships.
kirab 4y ago
Optimism and Pessimism are viewed very differently in different Countries (Germany vs USA) and even Regions (Silicon Valley vs idk Utah). Apart from that I think the article is mostly wrong. To make progress you need agency and self-confidence. The effects of Optimism and Pessimism are very context-dependent. Just one example: A very driven and confident pessimist might be much more motivated to find a solution for Climate Change, because he knows for sure otherwise Earth is Doomed. While a very driven and confident optimist in Politics might reduce Carbon Tax, because he knows for sure that Technology Companies will find solutions for Climate Change and they'll find it faster if they have more money.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ordu 4y ago
  The article talks not about "personal" optimism/pessimism, but about a social one. It compares an optimistic society with a pessimistic one. What this choice brings to a society? > A very driven and confident pessimist might be much more motivated to find a solution for Climate Change, because he knows for sure otherwise Earth is Doomed. Not so driven pessimists might tell that it is a waste of time, because Earth is Doomed.
  - kirab 4y ago
    Yes of course! What I'm saying is that neither is better in all contexts. There's a lot of nuance.
  - peoplefromibiza 4y ago
    > Not so driven pessimists might tell that it is a waste of time, because Earth is Doomed or kill himself because Earth is Doomed and effectively be part of the solution. The reason why people do things it's mostly irrelevant, it's what they do that counts.
- 3pt14159 4y ago
  Yes. There is a but we must try anyway and try as hard as we can type of pessimist that refuses to give into nihilism. I used to be this type of pessimist about the future of technologic warfare before I found reasons for hope.
hoseja 4y ago
Do you not have enough progress? We need like five centuries of stagnation just to consolidate the runaway train of progress in the last ~200 years alone.
- quickthrower2 4y ago
  Human mind hardware has not changed though!
ChrisMarshallNY 4y ago
It’s funny. I tend to take a practical, skeptical approach to Making Things Happen. My work is always colored with thoughts like “What happens when the user does this…” or “The last time I tried that, my toenails fell off,” etc. People call that “pessimism,” and I’m often attacked as a “negative naysayer.” Nothing could be further from the truth. I have a long, long record of Getting Things Done. I ship; regularly and consistently. I do that, by anticipating problems, and architecting designs that are high Quality, secure, localizable, accessible, well-documented, performant, flexible, robust, long-lasting, maintainable, and complete (in a pretty short, predictable, timeframe). I’m also a good problem-solver. Roadblocks don’t tend to last long, when I roll up my sleeves. If you want pie-in-the-sky, shoot-for-the-moon dreams, I may not be the correct person to talk to; mostly because I’m admittedly fairly well-grounded, and less likely to come up with these ideas. But if you’d like to actually make your dream into a reality, then someone like me is a good bet.
- sanitycheck 4y ago
  That's me, too. I think in order to found a startup one needs to be an optimist. The risks are high, chances of success are low, it's a lot of work and a ton of stress. But in order for that startup to achieve anything, it needs realists (optimists call them pessimists, or can't tell the difference) to figure out what might go wrong and and keep it all on track.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  That's realism, not pessimism. Optimists and pessimists are both unrealistic, for different reasons. Optimism is unrealistic because it wants everyone on the happy clappy hype train, and people who aren't on will be resented. Collectively it's quite tribal, even culty. Pessimism is unrealistic because it misses opportunities that have a realistic chance of success. But they're only two broad kinds of unrealism out of many others. For example: Working obsessively on a project that interests you without doing any market testing. Using the latest tech stack just because everyone else is using it. Believing that customers will definitely sign up if you add that one feature they want. It's lack of realism that kills you, not two specific subtypes of it.
hk1337 4y ago
Pessimists push the Optimists to prove they are right. As a pessimist, you need to allow yourself to be proven wrong.
tlarkworthy 4y ago
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." -- Roosevelt I am suprised the author has such a low opinion of optimism. After internalising Roosevelt I have actively tried to temper cynical thought when interacting with others. It's easy to throw stones and find fault but its much more powerful to be in the driving seat of change (which innately requires optimism)
dathinab 4y ago
Worse then pessimism is taking Patents seriously. Because anyone who does can basically no longer innovate anything at all as there is probably a patent about some aspect of you innovation (which should never have been issued). Patents on the level of patenting trivial things like automatically shutting down unneeded resources. In a caring about (such) patents is for innovation like endless pessimism for your live, okay maybe more like being depressed or having an anxiety disorder.
im3w1l 4y ago
About a month ago back I saw an HN submission titled "Just What Is It That Makes Today’s Homes So Different, So Appealing?" And it made me do a double-take, because the positivity of it was so unexpected, almost shocking. And indeed it wasn't made recently, rather it was from 1956.
kingkawn 4y ago
Pessimism is a barrier to fruitless progress
giantg2 4y ago
Wow, there's a lot of labeling and stereotyping going on in the article and comments. I think there's too much absolutism going on about pessimists and optimists - it's really a continuous range that shouldn't be applied as absolutes.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing and so is effectively saying nothing. Like, Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because he thinks some will be needed but not all will work. So he's a pessimist, pessimist, optimist, optimist, pessimist, optimist, optimist/pessimist. And that's one person on one idea. I agree with some of his opinions and methods, but disagree with others. I don't mind him investing in nuclear things, I just wish he'd tone down his 'pessimism' about renewables when pitching them because overall I think that is unhelpful, untrue and unnecessary. He gets many of his downer talking points from Vaclav Smil, who is a grumpy pessimist about both the science and politics of climate change and I think personifies the "Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism sounds dumb" idea. But does that mean "pessimism" is bad in the abstract? I don't think so.
- civilized 4y ago
  > This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing Exactly. The author is stapling all the good qualities onto optimism and all the bad ones onto pessimism so that he can declare one good and the other bad. I'm optimistic we can have a more meaningful conversation about optimism and pessimism if we forget this article.
- orzig 4y ago
  For someone whose user name is “zero gravitas”, you sure seem wise :-)
  - masklinn 4y ago
    GP close to gods, and on the far side, confirmed.
- id 4y ago
  https://twitter.com/GatesJets https://twitter.com/GatesJets Hard to take Gates seriously on climate change. Imagine everyone was living like this.
trabant00 4y ago
Pessimism and optimism imply nothing about action or inaction, active or passive. The entire article is based on a straw man of pessimism that is exactly like the one he's defending optimism from: > people mistake optimism for “blind optimism” — the blinkered faith that things will always get better. Problems will fix themselves. If we just hope things turn out well, they will. [...] If we sit back and do nothing, we will not make progress. That’s not the kind of optimism that I’m talking about > Pessimism blocks solutions. If we always believe that the worst will happen, then what’s the point in starting? If any action will fail, we should stick with the status quo. Follow the pessimists if you want the world to stagnate or regress. You've had enough of people equating passivity with optimism so you decide to equate it to pessimism instead. BIG THINK.
bryanrasmussen 4y ago
Obviously, but I also have a hard time changing my essential nature.
kashyapc 4y ago
(Verbatim re-posting a past comment[+] of mine that seemed to have resonated with HN folks.) Hans Rosling[1] used to call himself a "very serious possibilist": People often call me an optimist, because I show them the enormous progress they didn't know about. That makes me angry. I'm not an optimist. That makes me sound naive. I'm a very serious “possibilist”. That's something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview. As a possibilist, I see all this progress, and it fills me with conviction and hope that further progress is possible. This is not optimistic. It is having a clear and reasonable idea about how things are. It is having a worldview that is constructive and useful. • • • In his book 'Factfulness' (definitely read it), he talks about "bad and better": Think of the world as a premature baby in an incubator. The baby’s health status is extremely bad and her breathing, heart rate, and other important signs are tracked constantly so that changes for better or worse can quickly be seen. After a week, she is getting a lot better. On all the main measures, she is improving, but she still has to stay in the incubator because her health is still critical. Does it make sense to say that the infant’s situation is improving? Yes. Absolutely. Does it make sense to say it is bad? Yes, absolutely. Does saying “things are improving” imply that everything is fine, and we should all relax and not worry? No, not at all. Is it helpful to have to choose between bad and improving? Definitely not. It’s both. It’s both bad and better. Better, and bad, at the same time. That is how we must think about the current state of the world. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling [+] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29550178 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29550178
- wara23arish 4y ago
  I think thats a great book! I’ve read it too. The irony is I learned about it from Bill Gates’s book list recommendations years ago.
papito 4y ago
Pessimism can be just aversion to risk. Those that can afford to fail can be more optimistic - because they can try again. You will be more pessimistic if failure means losing everything, no?
black_13 4y ago
jacooper 4y ago
The reason is the news, period. Nothing positive ever gets covered. What you hear is: - the planet is getting worse - US centered News about how they banning something means the end of the world. - education is getting worse And everything negative, because negativety gets you clicks, its an endless cycle because of algorithmic timelines. While in reality education has massively improved and people are getting out of poverty faster. A huge exception is the current news. Because of the Ukraine War, its obviously why is everyone is negative now, you hear about nuclear war risk, millions facing risk of famine because of wheat and food shortage, and many other things happening currently. So I would say its understandable why everyone is so negative currently, but the negativity that existed before Covid is for sure, caused by News, which caused the divide in America which is unfortunately now spreading to other countries.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
logisticpeach 4y ago
I occasionally struggle with issues around optimism/pessimism. Working in a start-up I'm surrounded by others who are overwhelmingly optimistic (which is such a powerful bulwark against the brutal struggle, especially in the early days). I try my best to be as positive as I can, but on reflection I'm probably a slight optimist, or neutral in my overall outlook. I can't help feeling like some other team members see me as constantly dragging things down when I point out issues etc. I guess I can sometimes feel like a total pessimist when contrasted against individuals who are overwhelmingly optimistic, despite not in-fact having a tendency toward pessimism. Maybe I'm a barrier to progress :) It's a strange relativism that I only encounter in my work environment. In everyday life, I definitely don't feel pessimistic. I wonder if, relatively speaking, the extreme blind optimist can make the more rational, reserved optimist seem negative by comparison. Gaining a good overall perspective is key I guess, although never easy.
6stringmerc 4y ago
In comparing my personal baseline optimism to others, I’m definitely on the “dreamer” side of the spectrum. Most people around me? Pessimistic by default. Some are wired that way, some seem to have been molded by education, family, and/or work. It led me to this tongue in cheek thought: Pessimists definitely played important roles in the early US space program, but it was optimists who suited up and believed they could make it there and back.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
paganel 4y ago
Progress towards what? If it's progress towards having constant news pieces about a potential nuclear attack any day now then I'd say the pessimists were right and we should have sticked to less progress.
boh 4y ago
For the tech industry, "progress" is mostly defined in cost cutting, automation, market concentration, and increased profit margins. Yes I can now take a photo with my phone but my job is less secure, my environment is more polluted, housing is more expensive, and my retirement is less attainable then it was 50 years ago. What happened in between then and now? Progress.
hprotagonist 4y ago
What is the matter with the pessimist? I think it can be stated by saying that he is the cosmic anti-patriot. And what is the matter with the anti-patriot? I think it can be stated, without undue bitterness, by saying that he is the candid friend. And what is the matter with the candid friend? There we strike the rock of real life and immutable human nature. I venture to say that what is bad in the candid friend is simply that he is not candid. He is keeping something back— his own gloomy pleasure in saying unpleasant things. He has a secret desire to hurt, not merely to help. This is certainly, I think, what makes a certain sort of anti-patriot irritating to healthy citizens. I do not speak (of course) of the anti-patriotism which only irritates feverish stockbrokers and gushing actresses; that is only patriotism speaking plainly. A man who says that no patriot should attack the Boer War until it is over is not worth answering intelligently; he is saying that no good son should warn his mother off a cliff until she has fallen over it. But there is an anti-patriot who honestly angers honest men, and the explanation of him is, I think, what I have suggested: he is the uncandid candid friend; the man who says, "I am sorry to say we are ruined," and is not sorry at all. -- Chesterton
lucideer 4y ago
Plenty here talking about the definitions of optimism/pessimism and noone mentioning the definition of progress. Blind optimism leads to blind progress. The purpose of pessimism isn't just to stop progress but to question its direction, and the metrics ("kpis" if you will) that define it.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  Or, blind optimism leads to effort expended on dead ends. We're sure this will work, no negativity in the dojo, everyone charge ahead! And then it goes nowhere, because warnings were suppressed or ignored.
rbanffy 4y ago
I would like to emphasize the importance of fiction on this. We enact the narratives we like. If we all are set into Soylent Green and Blade runner, then this is the world we'll make. I'm more of a Star Trek person - I hope we all become great people, competent, professional, curious, and generous, and that we can create a post-scarcity society that's fair to everyone after taking on our problems in a rational way. Is it possible we'll fail to prevent a major climate crisis? Yes. Is denying climate change, the effectiveness of vaccines, or the results of elections the thing we need to do right now, and does it help? Absolutely not.
WaitWaitWha 4y ago
I have a disagreement with the article's premise. >Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism sounds dumb. [...] There is an “optimism stigma” that is pervasive throughout society. Does it? Is there? I am thinking you associate with and consume from the wrong circles. To me this is not the case. I find full pessimism (nihilism?) disappointing, and often not thinking situations through. I have yet to find a situation where I had not been able to find some optimism (, and yes I had my share of horrors). If I had a choice between a full pessimist and a full optimist, I would always take the optimist. I think the movie "What Dreams May Come" by Richard Matheson is fitting. That is all about me. As for society (people I come in contact with), most, despite sometimes horrific situations (e.g. cancer, war, torture, starvation, near-death) they mostly have optimistic outlook from small to big pictures, their life situation, to getting that next meal. Even when they get into a pessimist thought, they abandon it. I also do not think it is a binary choice, and realism is on this scale somewhere.
- verisimi 4y ago
  I have a disagreement with a different premise. Define progress. Is it more/better technology? Is that progress something we want?
- jackbravo 4y ago
  I like your take, we need to use proper words for each situation. I agree that full pessimism is a form of nihilism. And for full optimism I think the word is naiveness. Both are extremes that should be avoided. And in any good discussion, you want to hear both the optimist and pessimist takes (the reasonable ones), and plan accordingly.
megaman821 4y ago
My problem with pessimists is that they usually have nothing to offer. There is only so much awareness you can bring to problems while having no solutions. The optimists in society seem like the doers.
- vsareto 4y ago
  Optimists can too easily ignore the potential consequences of their actions chasing success at all costs. We're still in a society where a balance is best. Having a pessimist is great if you don't let them completely stop you.
exodust 4y ago
It might be pessimistic to divide everyone up in such a binary way. I didn't know I needed to pick a side, then convince others to join that side.
photochemsyn 4y ago
Where one sits on the pessimism-to-optimism scale does likely affect one's personal response to difficulties - the optimist might have a survival advantage over the pessimist, who we suspect would be more likely to give up and wait passively for the end. A related notion is that the devout religious believer will do better in dire straits than the cynical atheist would, which is an example of the 'utilitarian' argument for religion. I don't know whether this is actually true in practice. Some people get along through sheer cussedness (which some might interpret as pessimism). I suppose the pessimist more often than not finds reality to be more rewarding than expected - i.e. if you expect the worst, anything even moderately better comes as a pleasant surprise. A similar view is "expect nothing from people, then you'll never be disappointed". Regardless, reality is what it is. The optimist who leaps off a cliff flapping their arms like a bird, visualizing flight, will come to a splattering end. This is called realism, which should probably take precedence over either optimism or pessimism. Here we can answer the question "how do you know it won't work if you don't at least try?" with a one-liner: math and physics, thank you very much. As far as fossil-fueled global warming over the next few centuries, I imagine human beings will survive it, but historic disruptions are steadily coming on, and the tipping point has come and gone - there's no going back to the relatively stable, very-gradually-cooling regime of the past few thousand years. We'll see a steadily warming planet for the next 100 years at the very least, there's just no way out of it. A rapid transition to renewable energy is being blocked by entrenched fossil fuel interests (and has been for the past 40 years), and the only countries ahead of the curve are the net fossil fuel importers (China in particular), but even they are nowhere near anything like a meaningful reduction in fossil emissions. Result? Climate outcomes are heading towards the most extreme of the IPCC predictions. All the bubbling optimism in the world won't change that - it's already here.
sebastianconcpt 4y ago
That's not the best level of analysis. Everybody is pessimistic and optimistic at the same time in different perspectives that can be dialectically changed in regard to what you define as "progress". Progress in terms of what agenda? You have a lot of them, and many are conflicting ones with varying degrees of potential conciliation (dialogue is possible) and some fundamentally irreconciliable (dialogue broken in a culture war, cold civil war, cultic war, hyperwar [1]). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofYWf2SKd_c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofYWf2SKd_c
snapplebobapple 4y ago
This seems like a lot of words and a lot of word games to say something that could have been said in a much simplified form by recognizing that optimism directs effort and pessimism quashes effort and you need a healthy dose of both to be effective because pessimism used correctly (what the other labelled criticism in this piece) cuts off effort on what the person thinks are the worst solutions and focuses it on the best possible solutions. Instead this gets into a lot of words about kinds of optimism and redefining pessimism as criticism if it is used effectly
chaostheory 4y ago
The author can differentiate between different types of optimism. I don’t understand why he can’t do the same for pessimism. Just like with optimism, not everything is blind.
hbrn 4y ago
The only algorithm for progress is evolution. Optimism is mutations - it generates new random ideas. Pessimism is fitness function - it kills bad ideas. You need both for progress. I don't really understand the distinction author makes between pessimism and criticism. The best critics are pessimists.
adamc 4y ago
The discussion here is interesting. In general, I don't think either optimism or pessimism are the issue. Letting your feelings overwhelm data is the issue. It's fine to be optimistic so long as you can realistically assess when the idea isn't panning out. Same about pessimism -- it's fine, so long as you are willing to investigate and get some data. There are lots of bad ideas, so undue optimism needs pruning. There are also lots of good ideas we haven't tried yet -- that is the evidence of history. The big problem I see in life -- including my own life -- is attachment to positions when the data is not in accord with that attachment. In science, it's why you often have to wait for a new generation of scientists who can fully integrate newer results (data) into their thinking. In life, it's why people like me get stuck in the past: it's the lens we understand.
blueprint 4y ago
Pretty sure optimism dominates the headlines because actual pessimism says things are way worse than people are willing to even realize. That's what makes someone pessimistic. "We've tried everything and a few more things and we confirmed that most people are actively trying to destroy themselves and there's a trend of increasing causes of destruction"

171 points by kiyanwang 4y ago

jschveibinz 4y ago

If I could only upvote this ten thousand times.

dazc 4y ago
What's the point?

amelius 4y ago

But I think pessimists generally have better humor.

gherkinnn 4y ago

As Karl Popper beautifully but it: optimism as a duty.

andrewgleave 4y ago
Followed by Deutsch: All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge.

gw99 4y ago

Conversely optimism can waste resources on unworkable progress which could have been applied to workable progress. Reality is way more nuanced than single perspectives.

chubs 4y ago
Maybe it's both? Say, for some potential project, you rate it X on the pessimism/optimism scale. If you're too pessimistic, you won't attempt it, even though it would have worked out nicely! But if you're too optimistic, you'll waste time attempting it even though it has no chance of success. Perhaps the ideal is to be able to correctly assess the chance of success of projects, and then you can make an accurate allocation of effort :)
have_faith 4y ago
Traversing nuance can be debilitating for many people. I think over-optimism and going gung-ho can be a good strategy. Not a strategy that comes naturally to me of course, I've wasted many hours/days/weeks trying to figure out the optimal way to do something taking into consideration all of the nuances at play.
hardlianotion 4y ago
Reminds me of a version Pandora's Box story. Pandora opens a box of furies on the world, closes it too late in a panic, then hears a little voice in the box, pleading to be let out. In one version, Pandora lets out Hope, who acts as a balm to the pain and trouble caused by the furies. In another version, false Hope is the worst fury of all - a niggling voice that drives you on when there is no possibility of success.
DoctorDabadedoo 4y ago
That's survivorship bias right there. We mostly hear of successful stories, where grinding, blood and tears paid off and have an amazing story to tell. For each one of those there are countless others that didn't work out because the conditions were not there and there is no pride/gain in sharing that to the same extent.
endorphine 4y ago
This doesn't negate the value of optimism though, which is what this article is about. Yes, there's a price to pay for optimism, but the alternative is much more costlier - I think this is the premise of this article. > Reality is way more nuanced than single perspectives. That's a truism, I believe.

kixxauth 4y ago

I've considered myself an optimist for most of my life. But, starting in about 2014 I started to find myself being more of a pessimist more of the time. It got to the point in 2020 where I found myself pessimistic about pretty much everything. You know what I noticed? It takes a lot of energy to be pessimistic and pissed off all the time. So, instead, I'm trying to remain focused and motivated by the wrongs I would like to see made right. I'm picking problems which I think I can positively impact. And while I'm not optimistic about much of it, neither am I succumbing to a pessimistic view which leads to not taking action. It's not binary.

lexapro 4y ago
What has fundamentally changed since 2014? Or is it the lack of change? Or did you just get older?
- kixxauth 4y ago
  Good question. That made me think about it. Why did it start to change for me in 2014? Posted my initial thoughts above
mozey 4y ago
"People mistakenly see optimism as an excuse for inaction. They think that it’s pessimism that drives change, and optimism that keeps us where we are. The opposite is true. Optimists are the ones that move us forward" Exactly, it's not binary. Some pessimism is healthy, "the ones that speak truth to power". However, complaining without offering solutions is pointless. Good on you for following up, and trying to be optimistic about some of your solutions.
TheCapeGreek 4y ago
I've turned to optimism this year as well, after being a lifelong pessimist. I realised the same - it takes up way too much energy and I end up doing nothing. Either not stressing all the time will make me do more, or at least I'll feel better. That's still a win for my mental health if nothing else. I'm still well aware of all the problems around me, and try to help where I can, but beyond that point I maintain some personal distance.

PeterStuer 4y ago

You might want to click through a few times on this. Basically this is WEF propaganda saying how billionaires are good for the world, and urge you not to get in their way with criticism or be labeled a doomsayer, negative Andy or 'pessimist'.

jollybean 4y ago
That is definitely not what this article is.
- PeterStuer 4y ago
  Have you read the Gates foundation funded IPSOS reports it references?
worldsayshi 4y ago
I'm definitely on the left side of the political spectrum. But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. "Speaking truth to power" is not really working because power doesn't care. Organizing seldom leads anywhere because it's just interpreted as more of "speaking truth to power" through protest. More critique. If a power structure is bad and it doesn't listen to you yelling louder doesn't really work. Complaining doesn't work. There needs to be something positive. Something that creates an alternative. But somehow the right owns the idea of entrepreneurship and unions are out of fashion and have maybe stagnated as a concept so the left is stuck protesting. /Rant
- sitkack 4y ago
  > But I am very frustrated by how leftism seems so often be so centred on critique (a negative trait) rather than building ideas/stuff. You realize that this is rhetorical scam to prevent the questioning of action and the suppression of dissent? The left has plenty of good ideas on how to constructively corral the greed and stupidity of the right. And no unions are not out of fashion.

alchemist1e9 4y ago

Pessimism provides reasons not to do something, that’s the real reason it’s popular, it’s intellectual excuses for laziness.

jollybean 4y ago

Just the opposite, I see empathetic, gushing, ridiculous cotton candy optimisim all over places like LinkedIn and the corporate world. Everybody Smile! There isn't nearly enough contention, questioning, satire (notice how SNL never really goes for that) etc.. Marc Benioff spends the entirety of his time virtue signalling about how he is saving LGBT refugees from this or that, while superficially that's nice, it's ultra narcissistic PR and self aggrandization to use those people as tools for corporate branding. Nobody calls him out. On the contrary, I see a lot of dour young people, with kind of a 'lack of faith' in the general sense, which is really odd, and I suggest maybe a new concept in the west. When I was very young we had the 'Cold War' with nukes starring right at us and we were full of ... gumption, positivity, pride, goodwill, hope etc.. Finally - I don't think positivity/pessimism matters that that much - you have to be a 'strong believer' in some capacity to innovate, the rest is head games.

foldr 4y ago
>Marc Benioff spends the entirety of his time virtue signalling about how he is saving LGBT refugees from this or that, while superficially that's nice, it's ultra narcissistic PR and self aggrandization to use those people as tools for corporate branding. Nobody calls him out. I don't think this sort of cynicism about LGBT rights activism is helpful. If we want to make progress in this area, we need support from all sectors of society. That definitely includes people who aren't saints and who don't act from wholly disinterested and pure motives. Whatever his motives (and I can't read his mind – can you?), Marc Benioff did something substantial to support LGBT rights when many other CEOs did not. There's no objective content to the accusation of "virtue signalling". It's a zero-effort means of objecting to whatever kind of activism someone doesn't like. Instead of making a substantive criticism of the activism itself, just jump to uncharitable conclusions about the person's inner motivations.
- hoseja 4y ago
  Why do we want that? We're well past the point of diminishing returns on that particular obsession.

cercatrova 4y ago

This is why I worry about the doomerism, especially by young people, I see online so often. Thankfully, stepping out of the bubbles that are Twitter and Reddit, it's not nearly as common to see in the real world. Just one more reason not to (unproductively) use these platforms.

johnaspden 4y ago
But muh perfectly predictable catastrophe a moderately intelligent twelve year old could see coming and that we could avoid by just not doing that, that we're blundering into because our short-term and long-term incentives are not well aligned, that will destroy the world without a shadow of a doubt!
- cercatrova 4y ago
  For real. So much of their thought process is predicated on wanting to tear down entirely the system and build something new, without even considering why it's like that in the first place. It leads me to think they don't have much real world experience, which, being young people, is accurate. It's the societal version of Chesterton's fence.

davidork 4y ago

hope for the best, plan for the worst.

js8 4y ago
Be pesimistic in your predictions but optimistic in your actions.

janmarsal 4y ago

>People mistakenly see optimism as an excuse for inaction. They think that it’s pessimism that drives change, and optimism that keeps us where we are. The opposite is true. Optimists are the ones that move us forward. Wait, what? Who thinks that way? This part is even highlighted in the article. Even blind optimism is seen as something that gives results. Sure it fails 99% of the time and a pessimist would think he will be part of the 99% but throwing things at the wall to see what sticks is a valid strategy for progress. I can't be the only pessimist who thinks that most successful people are just lucky idiots who went along with their foolishly risky idea and somehow managed to make it work. Isn't that the most common coping strategy for the average Joe? I can't be a black sheep, right? Optimists get all the chicks, and pessimists are bitter about it.

mupuff1234 4y ago

> There's an "optimism stigma" that's pervasive throughout society. Funny, I'd say it's quite the opposite, you aren't allowed to say anything negative or you'd be labeled as a "downer". Everything nowadays is "amazing" and "transformative".

Version467 4y ago
Soo maybe it's neither and just heavily dependent on a) the social circles you are a part of, and b) your personal bias towards pessimism/optimism? It's pure speculation, but it feels much more plausible than a society wide bias towards one or the other.
blooalien 4y ago
My own personal experience is that every single time I try to be positive about changing anything for the better in any way, the vast majority of humans I voice any "optimism" to are hell-bent on beating that "naïvety" out of me. The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all, but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone. All the technology in the world does only harm if the only thing people want to do with it is "weaponize" it in the service of greed and power-lust. There's nothing "amazing" or "transformative" about repeating the same old mistakes humanity's been guilty of since pretty much the dawn of "civilization". Perhaps instead of actively trying to find excuses to dissuade "optimists" from even trying, society might be better off trying to teach that supporting good ideas that benefit everyone is a good thing, not bad…
- v-erne 4y ago
  I am low energy person (at least for now - its a medical thing that perhaps will be fixed some day). When I hear "positive" people that force a change for the sake of change I know that this will probably mean that I will have to spend the last of my depleted energy resources on this naive persons dummy ideas that are not backed up by experience and insight. And this instantly changes me into pesimist that tries to test the other person if he thought it out, did due dilligence and spend his own energy first before he tries to use my. This is simply a defense mechanism that protects me from people that have aboundance of energy and do no understands that other are not like them. And most good ideas is shit - in real world only execution and timing matters.

foldr 4y ago

We're an emotionally obsessed culture. You see this in management culture too. Everything is thought to hang on people having the right attitude and the right emotional state. I suspect that on a large scale these emotional states don't make much difference to anything (although of course they're very important on the level of individual people).

Gravityloss 4y ago

It's like the caricature roles in a football team. Offense is optimists, they run to good shooting positions in case the ball comes there. Most of their running is in vain, yet they have to do it every time. They get praise if they make a goal, and if the opponent scores, it doesn't make a difference to them personally or affect their career. Defense is pessimists, they try to prevent the opponent from scoring. They for example have to sometimes commit a tactical fault in order to prevent the opponent from getting to a dangerous position where they could score a goal. They have to guard opponent offense players, even if the ball never comes near. They are criticized if the opponent makes a goal and they don't get credit for their team's offense scoring goals. So, one thinks a good thing might happen and tries to seize the opportunity. The other one thinks a bad thing might happen and tries to make sure it is prevented. Both are estimating an uncertain future and a lot of their work goes to waste - but only in hindsight. Both are needed for a team to win the championships.

kirab 4y ago

Optimism and Pessimism are viewed very differently in different Countries (Germany vs USA) and even Regions (Silicon Valley vs idk Utah). Apart from that I think the article is mostly wrong. To make progress you need agency and self-confidence. The effects of Optimism and Pessimism are very context-dependent. Just one example: A very driven and confident pessimist might be much more motivated to find a solution for Climate Change, because he knows for sure otherwise Earth is Doomed. While a very driven and confident optimist in Politics might reduce Carbon Tax, because he knows for sure that Technology Companies will find solutions for Climate Change and they'll find it faster if they have more money.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ordu 4y ago
The article talks not about "personal" optimism/pessimism, but about a social one. It compares an optimistic society with a pessimistic one. What this choice brings to a society? > A very driven and confident pessimist might be much more motivated to find a solution for Climate Change, because he knows for sure otherwise Earth is Doomed. Not so driven pessimists might tell that it is a waste of time, because Earth is Doomed.
- kirab 4y ago
  Yes of course! What I'm saying is that neither is better in all contexts. There's a lot of nuance.
- peoplefromibiza 4y ago
  > Not so driven pessimists might tell that it is a waste of time, because Earth is Doomed or kill himself because Earth is Doomed and effectively be part of the solution. The reason why people do things it's mostly irrelevant, it's what they do that counts.
3pt14159 4y ago
Yes. There is a but we must try anyway and try as hard as we can type of pessimist that refuses to give into nihilism. I used to be this type of pessimist about the future of technologic warfare before I found reasons for hope.

hoseja 4y ago

Do you not have enough progress? We need like five centuries of stagnation just to consolidate the runaway train of progress in the last ~200 years alone.

quickthrower2 4y ago
Human mind hardware has not changed though!

ChrisMarshallNY 4y ago

It’s funny. I tend to take a practical, skeptical approach to Making Things Happen. My work is always colored with thoughts like “What happens when the user does this…” or “The last time I tried that, my toenails fell off,” etc. People call that “pessimism,” and I’m often attacked as a “negative naysayer.” Nothing could be further from the truth. I have a long, long record of Getting Things Done. I ship; regularly and consistently. I do that, by anticipating problems, and architecting designs that are high Quality, secure, localizable, accessible, well-documented, performant, flexible, robust, long-lasting, maintainable, and complete (in a pretty short, predictable, timeframe). I’m also a good problem-solver. Roadblocks don’t tend to last long, when I roll up my sleeves. If you want pie-in-the-sky, shoot-for-the-moon dreams, I may not be the correct person to talk to; mostly because I’m admittedly fairly well-grounded, and less likely to come up with these ideas. But if you’d like to actually make your dream into a reality, then someone like me is a good bet.

sanitycheck 4y ago
That's me, too. I think in order to found a startup one needs to be an optimist. The risks are high, chances of success are low, it's a lot of work and a ton of stress. But in order for that startup to achieve anything, it needs realists (optimists call them pessimists, or can't tell the difference) to figure out what might go wrong and and keep it all on track.
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
That's realism, not pessimism. Optimists and pessimists are both unrealistic, for different reasons. Optimism is unrealistic because it wants everyone on the happy clappy hype train, and people who aren't on will be resented. Collectively it's quite tribal, even culty. Pessimism is unrealistic because it misses opportunities that have a realistic chance of success. But they're only two broad kinds of unrealism out of many others. For example: Working obsessively on a project that interests you without doing any market testing. Using the latest tech stack just because everyone else is using it. Believing that customers will definitely sign up if you add that one feature they want. It's lack of realism that kills you, not two specific subtypes of it.

hk1337 4y ago

Pessimists push the Optimists to prove they are right. As a pessimist, you need to allow yourself to be proven wrong.

tlarkworthy 4y ago

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." -- Roosevelt I am suprised the author has such a low opinion of optimism. After internalising Roosevelt I have actively tried to temper cynical thought when interacting with others. It's easy to throw stones and find fault but its much more powerful to be in the driving seat of change (which innately requires optimism)

dathinab 4y ago

Worse then pessimism is taking Patents seriously. Because anyone who does can basically no longer innovate anything at all as there is probably a patent about some aspect of you innovation (which should never have been issued). Patents on the level of patenting trivial things like automatically shutting down unneeded resources. In a caring about (such) patents is for innovation like endless pessimism for your live, okay maybe more like being depressed or having an anxiety disorder.

im3w1l 4y ago

About a month ago back I saw an HN submission titled "Just What Is It That Makes Today’s Homes So Different, So Appealing?" And it made me do a double-take, because the positivity of it was so unexpected, almost shocking. And indeed it wasn't made recently, rather it was from 1956.

kingkawn 4y ago

Pessimism is a barrier to fruitless progress

giantg2 4y ago

Wow, there's a lot of labeling and stereotyping going on in the article and comments. I think there's too much absolutism going on about pessimists and optimists - it's really a continuous range that shouldn't be applied as absolutes.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing and so is effectively saying nothing. Like, Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because he thinks some will be needed but not all will work. So he's a pessimist, pessimist, optimist, optimist, pessimist, optimist, optimist/pessimist. And that's one person on one idea. I agree with some of his opinions and methods, but disagree with others. I don't mind him investing in nuclear things, I just wish he'd tone down his 'pessimism' about renewables when pitching them because overall I think that is unhelpful, untrue and unnecessary. He gets many of his downer talking points from Vaclav Smil, who is a grumpy pessimist about both the science and politics of climate change and I think personifies the "Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism sounds dumb" idea. But does that mean "pessimism" is bad in the abstract? I don't think so.

civilized 4y ago
> This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing Exactly. The author is stapling all the good qualities onto optimism and all the bad ones onto pessimism so that he can declare one good and the other bad. I'm optimistic we can have a more meaningful conversation about optimism and pessimism if we forget this article.
orzig 4y ago
For someone whose user name is “zero gravitas”, you sure seem wise :-)
- masklinn 4y ago
  GP close to gods, and on the far side, confirmed.
id 4y ago
https://twitter.com/GatesJets https://twitter.com/GatesJets Hard to take Gates seriously on climate change. Imagine everyone was living like this.

trabant00 4y ago

Pessimism and optimism imply nothing about action or inaction, active or passive. The entire article is based on a straw man of pessimism that is exactly like the one he's defending optimism from: > people mistake optimism for “blind optimism” — the blinkered faith that things will always get better. Problems will fix themselves. If we just hope things turn out well, they will. [...] If we sit back and do nothing, we will not make progress. That’s not the kind of optimism that I’m talking about > Pessimism blocks solutions. If we always believe that the worst will happen, then what’s the point in starting? If any action will fail, we should stick with the status quo. Follow the pessimists if you want the world to stagnate or regress. You've had enough of people equating passivity with optimism so you decide to equate it to pessimism instead. BIG THINK.

bryanrasmussen 4y ago

Obviously, but I also have a hard time changing my essential nature.

kashyapc 4y ago

(Verbatim re-posting a past comment[+] of mine that seemed to have resonated with HN folks.) Hans Rosling[1] used to call himself a "very serious possibilist": People often call me an optimist, because I show them the enormous progress they didn't know about. That makes me angry. I'm not an optimist. That makes me sound naive. I'm a very serious “possibilist”. That's something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview. As a possibilist, I see all this progress, and it fills me with conviction and hope that further progress is possible. This is not optimistic. It is having a clear and reasonable idea about how things are. It is having a worldview that is constructive and useful. • • • In his book 'Factfulness' (definitely read it), he talks about "bad and better": Think of the world as a premature baby in an incubator. The baby’s health status is extremely bad and her breathing, heart rate, and other important signs are tracked constantly so that changes for better or worse can quickly be seen. After a week, she is getting a lot better. On all the main measures, she is improving, but she still has to stay in the incubator because her health is still critical. Does it make sense to say that the infant’s situation is improving? Yes. Absolutely. Does it make sense to say it is bad? Yes, absolutely. Does saying “things are improving” imply that everything is fine, and we should all relax and not worry? No, not at all. Is it helpful to have to choose between bad and improving? Definitely not. It’s both. It’s both bad and better. Better, and bad, at the same time. That is how we must think about the current state of the world. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling [+] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29550178 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29550178

wara23arish 4y ago
I think thats a great book! I’ve read it too. The irony is I learned about it from Bill Gates’s book list recommendations years ago.

papito 4y ago

Pessimism can be just aversion to risk. Those that can afford to fail can be more optimistic - because they can try again. You will be more pessimistic if failure means losing everything, no?

black_13 4y ago

jacooper 4y ago

The reason is the news, period. Nothing positive ever gets covered. What you hear is: - the planet is getting worse - US centered News about how they banning something means the end of the world. - education is getting worse And everything negative, because negativety gets you clicks, its an endless cycle because of algorithmic timelines. While in reality education has massively improved and people are getting out of poverty faster. A huge exception is the current news. Because of the Ukraine War, its obviously why is everyone is negative now, you hear about nuclear war risk, millions facing risk of famine because of wheat and food shortage, and many other things happening currently. So I would say its understandable why everyone is so negative currently, but the negativity that existed before Covid is for sure, caused by News, which caused the divide in America which is unfortunately now spreading to other countries.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

logisticpeach 4y ago

I occasionally struggle with issues around optimism/pessimism. Working in a start-up I'm surrounded by others who are overwhelmingly optimistic (which is such a powerful bulwark against the brutal struggle, especially in the early days). I try my best to be as positive as I can, but on reflection I'm probably a slight optimist, or neutral in my overall outlook. I can't help feeling like some other team members see me as constantly dragging things down when I point out issues etc. I guess I can sometimes feel like a total pessimist when contrasted against individuals who are overwhelmingly optimistic, despite not in-fact having a tendency toward pessimism. Maybe I'm a barrier to progress :) It's a strange relativism that I only encounter in my work environment. In everyday life, I definitely don't feel pessimistic. I wonder if, relatively speaking, the extreme blind optimist can make the more rational, reserved optimist seem negative by comparison. Gaining a good overall perspective is key I guess, although never easy.

6stringmerc 4y ago

In comparing my personal baseline optimism to others, I’m definitely on the “dreamer” side of the spectrum. Most people around me? Pessimistic by default. Some are wired that way, some seem to have been molded by education, family, and/or work. It led me to this tongue in cheek thought: Pessimists definitely played important roles in the early US space program, but it was optimists who suited up and believed they could make it there and back.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

paganel 4y ago

Progress towards what? If it's progress towards having constant news pieces about a potential nuclear attack any day now then I'd say the pessimists were right and we should have sticked to less progress.

boh 4y ago

For the tech industry, "progress" is mostly defined in cost cutting, automation, market concentration, and increased profit margins. Yes I can now take a photo with my phone but my job is less secure, my environment is more polluted, housing is more expensive, and my retirement is less attainable then it was 50 years ago. What happened in between then and now? Progress.

hprotagonist 4y ago

What is the matter with the pessimist? I think it can be stated by saying that he is the cosmic anti-patriot. And what is the matter with the anti-patriot? I think it can be stated, without undue bitterness, by saying that he is the candid friend. And what is the matter with the candid friend? There we strike the rock of real life and immutable human nature. I venture to say that what is bad in the candid friend is simply that he is not candid. He is keeping something back— his own gloomy pleasure in saying unpleasant things. He has a secret desire to hurt, not merely to help. This is certainly, I think, what makes a certain sort of anti-patriot irritating to healthy citizens. I do not speak (of course) of the anti-patriotism which only irritates feverish stockbrokers and gushing actresses; that is only patriotism speaking plainly. A man who says that no patriot should attack the Boer War until it is over is not worth answering intelligently; he is saying that no good son should warn his mother off a cliff until she has fallen over it. But there is an anti-patriot who honestly angers honest men, and the explanation of him is, I think, what I have suggested: he is the uncandid candid friend; the man who says, "I am sorry to say we are ruined," and is not sorry at all. -- Chesterton

lucideer 4y ago

Plenty here talking about the definitions of optimism/pessimism and noone mentioning the definition of progress. Blind optimism leads to blind progress. The purpose of pessimism isn't just to stop progress but to question its direction, and the metrics ("kpis" if you will) that define it.

pfdietz 4y ago
Or, blind optimism leads to effort expended on dead ends. We're sure this will work, no negativity in the dojo, everyone charge ahead! And then it goes nowhere, because warnings were suppressed or ignored.

rbanffy 4y ago

I would like to emphasize the importance of fiction on this. We enact the narratives we like. If we all are set into Soylent Green and Blade runner, then this is the world we'll make. I'm more of a Star Trek person - I hope we all become great people, competent, professional, curious, and generous, and that we can create a post-scarcity society that's fair to everyone after taking on our problems in a rational way. Is it possible we'll fail to prevent a major climate crisis? Yes. Is denying climate change, the effectiveness of vaccines, or the results of elections the thing we need to do right now, and does it help? Absolutely not.

WaitWaitWha 4y ago

I have a disagreement with the article's premise. >Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism sounds dumb. [...] There is an “optimism stigma” that is pervasive throughout society. Does it? Is there? I am thinking you associate with and consume from the wrong circles. To me this is not the case. I find full pessimism (nihilism?) disappointing, and often not thinking situations through. I have yet to find a situation where I had not been able to find some optimism (, and yes I had my share of horrors). If I had a choice between a full pessimist and a full optimist, I would always take the optimist. I think the movie "What Dreams May Come" by Richard Matheson is fitting. That is all about me. As for society (people I come in contact with), most, despite sometimes horrific situations (e.g. cancer, war, torture, starvation, near-death) they mostly have optimistic outlook from small to big pictures, their life situation, to getting that next meal. Even when they get into a pessimist thought, they abandon it. I also do not think it is a binary choice, and realism is on this scale somewhere.

verisimi 4y ago
I have a disagreement with a different premise. Define progress. Is it more/better technology? Is that progress something we want?
jackbravo 4y ago
I like your take, we need to use proper words for each situation. I agree that full pessimism is a form of nihilism. And for full optimism I think the word is naiveness. Both are extremes that should be avoided. And in any good discussion, you want to hear both the optimist and pessimist takes (the reasonable ones), and plan accordingly.

megaman821 4y ago

My problem with pessimists is that they usually have nothing to offer. There is only so much awareness you can bring to problems while having no solutions. The optimists in society seem like the doers.

vsareto 4y ago
Optimists can too easily ignore the potential consequences of their actions chasing success at all costs. We're still in a society where a balance is best. Having a pessimist is great if you don't let them completely stop you.

exodust 4y ago

It might be pessimistic to divide everyone up in such a binary way. I didn't know I needed to pick a side, then convince others to join that side.

photochemsyn 4y ago

Where one sits on the pessimism-to-optimism scale does likely affect one's personal response to difficulties - the optimist might have a survival advantage over the pessimist, who we suspect would be more likely to give up and wait passively for the end. A related notion is that the devout religious believer will do better in dire straits than the cynical atheist would, which is an example of the 'utilitarian' argument for religion. I don't know whether this is actually true in practice. Some people get along through sheer cussedness (which some might interpret as pessimism). I suppose the pessimist more often than not finds reality to be more rewarding than expected - i.e. if you expect the worst, anything even moderately better comes as a pleasant surprise. A similar view is "expect nothing from people, then you'll never be disappointed". Regardless, reality is what it is. The optimist who leaps off a cliff flapping their arms like a bird, visualizing flight, will come to a splattering end. This is called realism, which should probably take precedence over either optimism or pessimism. Here we can answer the question "how do you know it won't work if you don't at least try?" with a one-liner: math and physics, thank you very much. As far as fossil-fueled global warming over the next few centuries, I imagine human beings will survive it, but historic disruptions are steadily coming on, and the tipping point has come and gone - there's no going back to the relatively stable, very-gradually-cooling regime of the past few thousand years. We'll see a steadily warming planet for the next 100 years at the very least, there's just no way out of it. A rapid transition to renewable energy is being blocked by entrenched fossil fuel interests (and has been for the past 40 years), and the only countries ahead of the curve are the net fossil fuel importers (China in particular), but even they are nowhere near anything like a meaningful reduction in fossil emissions. Result? Climate outcomes are heading towards the most extreme of the IPCC predictions. All the bubbling optimism in the world won't change that - it's already here.

sebastianconcpt 4y ago

That's not the best level of analysis. Everybody is pessimistic and optimistic at the same time in different perspectives that can be dialectically changed in regard to what you define as "progress". Progress in terms of what agenda? You have a lot of them, and many are conflicting ones with varying degrees of potential conciliation (dialogue is possible) and some fundamentally irreconciliable (dialogue broken in a culture war, cold civil war, cultic war, hyperwar [1]). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofYWf2SKd_c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofYWf2SKd_c

snapplebobapple 4y ago

This seems like a lot of words and a lot of word games to say something that could have been said in a much simplified form by recognizing that optimism directs effort and pessimism quashes effort and you need a healthy dose of both to be effective because pessimism used correctly (what the other labelled criticism in this piece) cuts off effort on what the person thinks are the worst solutions and focuses it on the best possible solutions. Instead this gets into a lot of words about kinds of optimism and redefining pessimism as criticism if it is used effectly

chaostheory 4y ago

The author can differentiate between different types of optimism. I don’t understand why he can’t do the same for pessimism. Just like with optimism, not everything is blind.

hbrn 4y ago

The only algorithm for progress is evolution. Optimism is mutations - it generates new random ideas. Pessimism is fitness function - it kills bad ideas. You need both for progress. I don't really understand the distinction author makes between pessimism and criticism. The best critics are pessimists.

adamc 4y ago

The discussion here is interesting. In general, I don't think either optimism or pessimism are the issue. Letting your feelings overwhelm data is the issue. It's fine to be optimistic so long as you can realistically assess when the idea isn't panning out. Same about pessimism -- it's fine, so long as you are willing to investigate and get some data. There are lots of bad ideas, so undue optimism needs pruning. There are also lots of good ideas we haven't tried yet -- that is the evidence of history. The big problem I see in life -- including my own life -- is attachment to positions when the data is not in accord with that attachment. In science, it's why you often have to wait for a new generation of scientists who can fully integrate newer results (data) into their thinking. In life, it's why people like me get stuck in the past: it's the lens we understand.

blueprint 4y ago

Pretty sure optimism dominates the headlines because actual pessimism says things are way worse than people are willing to even realize. That's what makes someone pessimistic. "We've tried everything and a few more things and we confirmed that most people are actively trying to destroy themselves and there's a trend of increasing causes of destruction"