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The elusive future of San Francisco’s fog
- refurb 4y agoWhat is with all these "experts fear this might happen" articles? It's weird. Not enough actual news to cover?
- woodruffw 4y agoNormally we ask experts to give their expert opinions. I don't think the NYT (or anyone, really) is hurting for news to cover either. It's been an exciting year.
- refurb 4y agoSure, but so many articles are about some doomsday scenario that experts "aren't sure will happen, but might". Seems like there is enough stuff happening right now that could fill the pages rather than attempts at predicting the future?
- colinmhayes 4y agoNews is highly undifferentiated. If you want to stand out among the copycat news sources you also need to provide long form articles and a distinctive slant, which NYT has spent the last decade building.
- bobthepanda 4y agoAlso, this kind of long form investigative journalism is what has died out in most newsrooms in an effort to reduce costs. We already pretty much killed local news, no need to reduce everything to an AP feed.
- glerk 4y agohttps://archive.ph/OJYqz https://archive.ph/OJYqz
- carapace 4y agoSurprisingly deep article. A little known fact is that the coastal forests exhale fog. You can watch them breath out drifts of cloudstuff at the right time of day and weather conditions. They are releasing moisture, but also microscopic pollen that act as the nuclei of fog/cloud droplets and actually cause condensation. The California Coastal Commission is more important than you might realize. Keeping the coastal forest intact and operational effectively "air-conditions" the whole state to the Sierras. The Central Valley would be an oven without the coastal forests.
- femiagbabiaka 4y agoYes. Many of my favorite places in the PNW (so far) are the coastal forests and beaches in Mendocino County, around Eureka. A similar phenomenon can also be observed in the forests around Marin/Mill Valley. I always imagine Karl starting the trip from there.
- bitxbitxbitcoin 4y agoThe coastal forests in Northern California are beautiful. One geographical note: Eureka is in Humboldt County.
- femiagbabiaka 4y agoAh thank you! It’s been a while since I made the trip.
- bitxbitxbitcoin 4y agoGotcha! I only know because I very recently made the trip.
- thehappypm 4y agoI don’t think that’s considered the PNW, is it?
- 4y ago
- sammalloy 4y ago> The general consensus among the small cadre of scientists who study coastal fog is that it is decreasing, not just in California, but around the world. It’s true. The last time I saw thick fog in the city, the kind where you almost had to pull your car over because there was a chance you might hit another car, was 1989.
- boringg 4y agoFogust seemed to be getting lighter when I was living there as well. Anecdotal but noticeable.
- prpl 4y agowe would get it in the Richmond. The thickest fog in the bay area right I know if is always around Skyline between Westmoore and Hickey - it still gets that thick there.
- spike021 4y agoYou should visit Daly City; Skyline (35) still gets shrouded in fog fairly often.
- fennecfoxen 4y agoAlso, if you miss the fog, both Skyline and US-1 in that part of the world are absolutely gorgeous.
- dekhn 4y agoI had a nice view from UCSF 1995-2001. Fog came in full and thick nearly every day. When I drive from San Mateo to South SF I frequently see a large offshore flow causing massive fog at Mt San Bruno. Any possibility your data is mainly anecdotal?
- bartread 4y agoConcur: I spent perhaps 10 days in the city in 1995 split into two blocks at end of June and beginning of September. Definitely foggy on multiple days, especially over towards Golden Gate Park and the bridge.
- changoplatanero 4y agoOne good thing about less fog: fewer canceled flights from SFO.
- boringg 4y agoThe cost is greater than the benefit.
- cbhl 4y agoIncreasing the separation between runways would be sufficient to get most of the way there; planes can be landed solely on instruments if the runways are far enough apart.
- acchow 4y agoIs there physical space for this?
- cbhl 4y agoYou may find historical maps of SFO helpful: - https://www.sfomuseum.org/about/blog/interactive-historic-maps-sfo-1930-2021 https://www.sfomuseum.org/about/blog/interactive-historic-ma... - https://millsfield.sfomuseum.org/map/ https://millsfield.sfomuseum.org/map/ Much of the current runways are on what was part of the water in the bay just 100 years ago.
- 4y ago
- diebeforei485 4y agoIt's definitely getting less foggy in the summers. People in the east side of San Francisco are installing AC or wishing they had AC.
- moomoo11 4y agoCould that also be due to transplants? 80% of people in SF apparently don’t stay that long and move out. I can easily imagine someone moving to SF and enjoying the nice temps most of the year. The two weeks of high heat that everyone on California coasts experiences can cause such people to freak out and want an AC instead of dealing with it or going outside. I live in a coastal city where it’s 70 basically every day except for 10 days of the year when it can be high 80s/90s. Just get a fan.
- _jal 4y agoI moved here in '93. I'm not a native, but I don't think I can be considered transient. I got an AC unit for the first time two years ago. Following tradition, it didn't arrive until I didn't need it, but I ran it last year, and then a lot this year. I live in SOMA, it is usually a couple degrees warmer here than the city average. But that doesn't account for the 99F reading on my outside thermometer last week.
- moomoo11 4y agoI’m not talking about you because you’ve been there for years now. I meant that most people move to SF for a couple years and then move out due to costs or whatever reason. I read somewhere that 80% or so of SF is this way. Students, job hoppers, workers, etc. How was SF in the 90s?
- rconti 4y agoRedwood City here, just bought my first (window) A/C for my house this summer. It went from "if I'm going to buy one, I should do it now before it gets really hot" to "I'm buying one today". So thankfully I had it for all of the hot days this year, including the record high 107 last week.
- Helmut10001 4y agoI once did a film about the fog and its fundamental importance to Windsufing in San Francisco [1]. I hope it stays. [1]: https://vimeo.com/77666233 https://vimeo.com/77666233
- spatulon 4y agoOne of the more memorable and surreal experiences I had on my visit to SF was walking around Golden Gate Park, and suddenly seeing what looked like the mast of an alien sailing ship looming out of the fog in the distance. It turned out to be Sutro Tower.
- mertd 4y agoHad you acquired chocolate bars from some hippies by any chance?
- azinman2 4y agoYou know you can just go to a store for that now, and they’re not run or frequented by hippies.
- FutureZeitgeist 4y ago
- baby 4y agoDepends if it has mushroom in it
- azinman2 4y agoFair enough
- cheriot 4y agoYou'll be able to go to a store for that soon as well! https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/10/us/san-francisco-decriminalization-psychedelics-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/10/us/san-francisco-decriminaliz...
- baby 4y agoIt’s weird because everyone in SF has been saying that these have been decriminalized when the news says that nothing has happened yet AND it’s not about decriminalization: > It calls for San Francisco police to give investigation and arrests related to use of such substances “the lowest priority.”
- keepquestioning 4y agoIs it possible to destroy the fog completely via weather engineering?
- trillic 4y agoIf the land and the ocean are the same temperature there won't be fog so just make the ocean 100 degrees problem solved.
- shagie 4y agoThe archive.ph link for the article lacks much of the interactive experience. The gift link for it - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/14/climate/san-francisco-fog.html?unlocked_article_code=FeffvwJ7Dv-TapIJ3FsLOWiislcdUdfWqiUSz9JhLfqLHckg_Kaensvx1DEZZFtwFrhy_9UX9KDpqRlkW4vzSBmPB5ouh7zWW5oNrxL48d77ouKxTnNK74-5jeLe9TNSUhWpf_60gEhhAFsmR9hl-r6qxMdhhMi18OLJ8OErSW0uI8behH6baUHatg5JoDfxcmmXQXPCXQUP1lQ1m7aWcK1-eGmTkeSk6M4CTZSTEoPgcsdvNKIIYFD1IJnZh1WW0yjVEjmx2JU6D1PNhV29AdJISWS-qzj0GzWObzcaopyILBiaUpCJjkl23SWaMi5A5vDlz0WO19Bm2a06svlHLIfhuGlV-rSkMx4k&smid=share-url https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/14/climate/san-f...
- subsubzero 4y agoWho knows, dense fog could be an artifact of the abnormally wet 20th century that California has seen, looking back 2000 years the typical state for California is very dry. Back 1200 years there were a few megadroughts that lasted centuries, here is an article that shows history of drought/rain in California, (on the infographic showing wet and dry periods) notice the huge peaks in the 20th century, and the steep drop in the 21st century. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeats.html https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-histo...
- trillic 4y agoI assume this consistent fog is an function of higher latitudes with dry hot inlands and cool oceans. Especially in the desert, fog will form near the coast. As SF Bay adds a lot of coast line, meaning more cool ocean closer to more hot land than most coastal cities, I'd imagine that has a large effect on why fog forms. If ocean temps rise faster than average land temps, the average difference between them will shrink, perhaps bringing on average less fog? Interesting reading: https://ggweather.com/sf/narrative.html https://ggweather.com/sf/narrative.html
- mellavora 4y agoyes, but also look at the age of the trees in the coastal forest (or the age of the trees which didn't get cut down by us). Suggests that they might be a different "micro" climate; also note the earlier comments that they create fog.
- annoyingnoob 4y agoRedwood trees need the moisture in the air. Some of those trees are a couple thousand years old. Is this the end for Redwoods? https://www.nps.gov/redw/learn/nature/about-the-trees.htm https://www.nps.gov/redw/learn/nature/about-the-trees.htm
- hedora 4y agoThe redwood forests around south bay / santa cruz are showing stress. There are many dead ones in parks in silicon valley. Here's an article about drought and albino redwoods from last year: https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/California-albino-redwood-forest-drought-16250517.php https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/California-a... This year was even drier.
- annoyingnoob 4y agoOur forests are in really sad shape in 2022. Nothing like what I remember as kid, so many dead trees now.
- julianeon 4y agoThere's also the "fog 2.0" we're seeing now, which is really smoggy air which is visible because of the particulate matter from wildfires. I'd say we see this type of "fog" more often than real fog in SF today.
- clpm4j 4y agoI can't recall a single day this year during which we've had what you've described. Certainly the "more often than real fog" statement is completely false.
- julianeon 4y agoI'm not sure what we're disagreeing about here. Do you doubt there's been smoggy air here in SF, which you can see due to particulate matter from the wildfires? This happens often. I mean it's basically just slightly thicker than normal smog. And there have been many fires. It's an unremarkable, common occurrence in the Bay Area today, this smog that is made worse by fires. When it's moist out - not enough for real fog, mind you - it can pass for a fake fog. Due to the heat, there's also been much less real fog. So all I'm saying is that there have been more days w/visible smog than fog in SF in 2022. Which I stand by, as something I've observed, which is also something you'd expect, given 1) number of fires increasing smog and 2) heat wave decreasing real fog.
- rconti 4y agoCorrect, we've had a really mild wildfire season so far, Mosquito fire notwithstanding.
- shagie 4y agohttps://fire.airnow.gov https://fire.airnow.gov has the map of the smoke plumes, locations of fires, and air quality sensors. For a given sensor, you can pull up the hourly data for the past 7 days.
- jhu247 4y agoBiking across the golden gate bridge when the fog and wind is blowing through from the Pacific is one of the most immersive (and scary) experiences ever. Highly recommend!
- whiplash451 4y agoTry doing it from the top of a Big Bus too! Amazing!
- cammikebrown 4y agoI grew up in Sacramento. The fog has gone from ubiquitous to nearly completely gone.
- photochemsyn 4y agoThe offshore california current transports cold surface water from the Gulf of Alaska down coast, and there's wind- and current-forced upwelling of deep, cold nutrient-rich water from the deep Pacific Basin. The interaction of cold water and warm air leads to condensation at the near-ocean surface, aka fog (marine layer) formation. This effect persists as far south as Point Conception north of the Los Angeles basin. A warmer climate implies an atmosphere capable of holding more water vapor before condensation takes place, but the transition from clear moist air to opaque cloud is complicated and hard to model precisely: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/western-geographic-science-center/science/pacific-coastal-fog-project https://www.usgs.gov/centers/western-geographic-science-cent... > "Fog pushes against, over, and through gaps in the coastal mountains, transporting water and other aerosol materials into coastal ecosystems. If the temperature or pressure differences (gradients) are too strong, winds will be generated and the additional turbulent mixing will dissipate the fog." Across most of California the Coast Ranges block the inland movement of the offshore marine layer in summer, with the break in the ranges at the San Francisco Bay the marine layer can flow in and out without having to climb the ranges and waterfall down the other side (that's an impressive sight when it does). As far as climate, the physical flow of the California Current is driven by planetary rotation, but the Gulf of Alaska has been generally warming and experiencing heatwaves, so perhaps some warming of the California Current is expected: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/central-gulf-alaska-marine-heatwave-watch https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/central-gulf-al... Sometimes the atmospheric outflow from the hot Central Valley through the Bay gap is strong enough to keep the fog bank well offshore (or dissolve it altogether). It comes down to the dynamics of local winds, the temperature differential (colder ocean = more fog, hotter valley air outflow = less onshore fog). Climate-wise, the California Central Valley is getting warmer with more extreme heat days: https://blog.ucsusa.org/pablo-ortiz/climate-change-impacts-on-california-central-valley-the-warning-shot-the-us-is-ignoring/ https://blog.ucsusa.org/pablo-ortiz/climate-change-impacts-o... Thus, less fog coming into the SF Bay is a reasonable prediction.
- sliken 4y agoNot sure how the Tule fog related to the SF fog, but: https://news.berkeley.edu/2019/04/10/falling-levels-of-air-pollution-drove-decline-in-californias-tule-fog/ https://news.berkeley.edu/2019/04/10/falling-levels-of-air-p...
- hindsightbias 4y agoNot sure if there would be anyone old enough here - but all the old San Francisco Film Noirs from the 40s and 50s show SF and pouring rain. Was that real or just a Hollywood thing?
- xvedejas 4y agoSF does pour rain fairly often between January and March, those films could have chosen the time of year for the desired atmosphere.
- tristanb 4y agoNot anymore. It used too every year, hardly ever now.
- Melatonic 4y agoI grewup in the bay area (peninsula) and was in SF a lot. It definitely rained a hell of a lot more. The weather now is practically like what people used to think of as Santa Monica weather half the year (or maybe Santa Barbara)
- hindsightbias 4y agoThey say SF will be San Diego in 50 years, so perhaps still liveable.
- bragr 4y agoI grew up in the central valley in California and it is already very noticeable how much less tule fog [1] there is from just a few decades ago. It just doesn't get as cool at night and humidity is lower on average and that significantly reduces the fog formation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tule_fog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tule_fog
- annoyingnoob 4y agoI once drove through Dinuba with my head out the window to try to see past the hood of my car, it was crazy.
- hondo77 4y agoAgreed. We did get a few days of the real thing this past winter, which was a nice surprise, but it used to happen a lot. Ah, the days of driving home from a date in that fog. Had to drive with your head out the window because of the fog outside and inside. :-)
- jlmendezbonini 4y agoSomeone else posted this below https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32858258 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32858258 that is not mentioned in the wikipedia page: > Falling levels of air pollution drove decline in California’s tule fog
- encoderer 4y agoYes it would be sad if it were totally gone but let’s not imagine that it’s great living in a super foggy place where you lose the ability to appreciate the natural beauty of your neighborhood. The foggiest parts of the city also generally have the worst weather overall. I’m sure there are some people that really like it but generally speaking it’s not desirable to have high winds and dense fog.
- Sirened 4y agothe fog is part of the natural beauty
- encoderer 4y agoYes and it looks great from a distance but it can be foggy like all day, for days at a time, you want to raise kids there? Where I lived the sun would usually come out (thankfully) but it would take until 3pm.
- rconti 4y agoMy sister-in-law moved to SF from Chicago, and every time we met up with them further south on the Peninsula, she'd remark "oh, it turned into a nice day!"
- BurritoAlPastor 4y agoThe fog doesn’t hide the beauty; the fog is the beauty.
- encoderer 4y agoNice to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there.
- BurritoAlPastor 4y agoI do live there. I can hear the foghorns from the bridge at night. It’s nice!
- rconti 4y agoOne of my most magical bike rides was along Skyline Boulevard on the coast range on the SF Peninsula. It was a summer day as the fog moved in; there was a moderate wind out of the west, pushing clouds from west to east. In the less densely-forested areas, it was windy and cold, but every time we went through a patch of trees, the wind died down, and it was raining. The way the trees caught the blowing fog meant it was more than the drips you get off of trees some days, but it felt like actual, natural rain. And I imagine on some level it's difficult to truly parse out the difference between which droplets came from fog hitting tree branches, and which were forced out of the cloud by the slowing and densifying moist air as it hit a thick grove of trees.
- freetime2 4y agoI realize this is pretty subjective, but there is not a single time that I have appreciated being in the fog on a bike ride or hike. It can be pretty to watch rolling in over the hills, but once I am in it, I always feel cold and miserable. I'd almost prefer that it just rain, because at least then I would have a valid excuse to stay home.
- whalesalad 4y agoDifferent strokes. I feel most alive when Mother Nature is giving me spooky wicked weather.
- stevenhubertron 4y agoAgree. Something primal about it I think.
- rconti 4y agoIt's been a few years, so my memory might be rosier than the experience was at the time. I grew up in the PNW and it was a solid 10 years in the Bay Area before I could actually appreciate rain again. And I still hate it when bad weather ruins my plans. However, one of my favorite scenic things here on the Peninsula is watching the clouds/fog crash over the coast range every afternoon in the summer. From a safe distance in my 70 degree neighborhood, of course.
- bfung 4y agoWe can’t all live forever, right Karl? https://twitter.com/KarlTheFog/status/1570499729813012480?s=20 https://twitter.com/KarlTheFog/status/1570499729813012480?s=...