10 ms·

With a couple of FSRU terminals coming online during the next year, Europe might be OK, but it's going to be a problem. Storage is high for the season, and grow

by iSnow 4y ago

With a couple of FSRU terminals coming online during the next year, Europe might be OK, but it's going to be a problem. Storage is high for the season, and growing, but total gas delivered is very low. When the winter cold comes, storage will be depleted much faster than in the last years, and even if no gas shortages occur, storage will be very empty in spring - maybe too low to refill them till next winter.

nikolay 4y ago
So, once of a sudden, Europe is fine with shale gas as long as it's from another country. Europe seems fine with gas from Qatar as well, which also is waging a cruel war in Yemen with tons of deliberate civilian casulties!
- The_Colonel 4y ago
  1) in the short term Europe is not cutting gas from Russia, it's the other way round 2) in the long term, Europe is trying to get independent from Russian gas so that 1) will not happen again Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons.
  - phh 4y ago
    That being said, I hope we plan on no longer depending on Qatar either, because their stability doesn't seem a given either.
    - MagnumOpus 4y ago
      Dependence only starts at 10%+ of import shares... Europe is now dependent on Russia and Norway, and slightly dependent on Algeria. Any single other source be it Azerbaijan or LNG from US/Qatar/wherever is too small to cause the price jumps we've seen (and therefore not big enough to matter politically)...
      - chitowneats 4y ago
        Yes. The idea behind scaling up LNG is that it decouples Europe from any one supplier.
    - asdajksah2123 4y ago
      That would be the smart move. To greatly increase conservation (heat pumps, better insulation, etc. are low hanging fruits that will more than pay for themselves in a few years), reduce car driving in favor of cheaper and better public transport and/or bikes/ebikes, and to increase wind and solar power, both of which are as cheap if not cheaper than most sources of fossil fuels and can be brought online within months. If Europe does not do this, then they will absolutely deserve the impact of the future geopolitical shocks that will inevitably increase as climate change causes migrations, inflation, increasing natural disasters, and ensuing political instability in fossil fuel providing nations, which are not coincidentally among the most ripe for political revolt.
      - iso1631 4y ago
        How will reducing car driving save gas?
    - bpodgursky 4y ago
      Once you're relying on LNG terminals rather than fixed pipes, you have a lot of source flexibility.
      - elzbardico 4y ago
        And really higher prices that will destroy German industrial competitiveness
  - dnh44 4y ago
    >Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons. I think the truth of this statement increases with a slight modification. The US is trying to get Europe away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons. Western European countries, and Germany especially have had to be pushed into supporting Ukraine.
    - scrollaway 4y ago
      > Western European countries, and Germany especially have had to be pushed into supporting Ukraine. Absolutely untrue of "western countries", only of Germany. The american "push" was welcome as a sign of confidence that we could support Ukraine not merely on our own, but with the backing of the United States. But this is our continent that is under attack. The US wouldn't otherwise care, but taking down Russia is a huge get for them so they care.
- iSnow 4y ago
  And what's wrong with stop-gap measures to prevent an energy crisis?
  - nikolay 4y ago
    As we can see, sanctions and arm-twisting are not stopping the war, not weakening Russia. Not even politically given the recent elections in Russia! Even Ukraine keeps buying Russian gas and I can't recall any comment from otherwise very vocal Zenesky about it! If there are supply issues, is due to all the nonsense coming from EU, which only hurts it, not Russia. Even if EU deversifies from Russia, it will be at a dear price and it will take time and will only replace one dependency with another.
    - tjoff 4y ago
      How can we see that? Sanctions are long term. We are not long term yet.
    - kspacewalk2 4y ago
      - Sanctions are most definitely weakening Russia, by demolishing its economy in the medium- and long-term. - Russia has no elections since it's a near-totalitarian autocracy with usurpers firmly in charge by force. - Ukraine hasn't been buying Russian gas for about 5 years now. Russian gas is transited via Ukraine, even during the war, since it's a rare situation that's in the best interest of all parties to the conflict, but 0 gas is purchased by Ukraine from Russia. - Supply issues are due to a war of aggression and attempts to deprive the aggressor of a major revenue source (which no one claimed will stop the war immediately, it's a long-term/punitive move). - EU has no choice but to diversify from Russia, since the only alternative is neutering of the EU and vassalage in all foreign policy matters that Putin chooses. (A significant percentage of the people expressing concern about supply issues and advocating a reversal are in fact concern-trolling and probably want this to happen. Are you one of those?) Russia uses energy as a weapon, so it must be deprived of this weapon.
      - postsantum 4y ago
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  Yemen isn't in Europe's backyard, and it isn't culturally European. If it was, you'd probably get a similar reaction.
  - yabqk 4y ago
    Ukraine is as culturally European as Qatar.
    - i_no_can_eat 4y ago
      That's a very ridiculous thing to say.
      - yabqk 4y ago
        It’s hyperbolic, but yes, Ukraine is much more similar to Russia than to Western Europe.
        kspacewalk2 4y ago
        Sneak "western" in there and move the goalposts, why don't you. Ukraine is culturally, geographically and geopolitically a European nation.
        chitowneats 4y ago
        Russia and Ukraine are historically and culturally European. Russian expansion deep into Siberia is a relatively recent phenomenon. Sure, they're not Western European, but that's not what you said in your original comment.
        onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
        Moscow and St. Petersburg - which make up a huge chunk of Russia economically, politically, and in terms of population - are very European historically and culturally. But Russia is a gigantic country with a lot of population that isn't particularly European in any sense. Ukraine on the other hand is basically 100% European any way you want to slice it beside Putin's revisionist history.
- nivenkos 4y ago
  And Azerbaijan...
- axus 4y ago
  I'd heard that Qatar withdrew in 2017 and was perhaps supporting the Houthis now, could you point me to some sources about the situation in 2022 so I could get up to date? I thought it was Saudi Arabia and UAE who were actively waging war.
01100011 4y ago
It's going to be a tough winter. 100% storage still doesn't last very long relative to historical usage. Cutbacks will have to be dramatic and a lot of industry will need to be shuttered(and already is, see metal refining).

by iSnow 4y ago

nikolay 4y ago

So, once of a sudden, Europe is fine with shale gas as long as it's from another country. Europe seems fine with gas from Qatar as well, which also is waging a cruel war in Yemen with tons of deliberate civilian casulties!

The_Colonel 4y ago
1) in the short term Europe is not cutting gas from Russia, it's the other way round 2) in the long term, Europe is trying to get independent from Russian gas so that 1) will not happen again Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons.
- phh 4y ago
  That being said, I hope we plan on no longer depending on Qatar either, because their stability doesn't seem a given either.
  - MagnumOpus 4y ago
    Dependence only starts at 10%+ of import shares... Europe is now dependent on Russia and Norway, and slightly dependent on Algeria. Any single other source be it Azerbaijan or LNG from US/Qatar/wherever is too small to cause the price jumps we've seen (and therefore not big enough to matter politically)...
    - chitowneats 4y ago
      Yes. The idea behind scaling up LNG is that it decouples Europe from any one supplier.
  - asdajksah2123 4y ago
    That would be the smart move. To greatly increase conservation (heat pumps, better insulation, etc. are low hanging fruits that will more than pay for themselves in a few years), reduce car driving in favor of cheaper and better public transport and/or bikes/ebikes, and to increase wind and solar power, both of which are as cheap if not cheaper than most sources of fossil fuels and can be brought online within months. If Europe does not do this, then they will absolutely deserve the impact of the future geopolitical shocks that will inevitably increase as climate change causes migrations, inflation, increasing natural disasters, and ensuing political instability in fossil fuel providing nations, which are not coincidentally among the most ripe for political revolt.
    - iso1631 4y ago
      How will reducing car driving save gas?
  - bpodgursky 4y ago
    Once you're relying on LNG terminals rather than fixed pipes, you have a lot of source flexibility.
    - elzbardico 4y ago
      And really higher prices that will destroy German industrial competitiveness
- dnh44 4y ago
  >Europe is trying to get away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons. I think the truth of this statement increases with a slight modification. The US is trying to get Europe away from being dependent from Russian gas for strategic, not humanistic reasons. Western European countries, and Germany especially have had to be pushed into supporting Ukraine.
  - scrollaway 4y ago
    > Western European countries, and Germany especially have had to be pushed into supporting Ukraine. Absolutely untrue of "western countries", only of Germany. The american "push" was welcome as a sign of confidence that we could support Ukraine not merely on our own, but with the backing of the United States. But this is our continent that is under attack. The US wouldn't otherwise care, but taking down Russia is a huge get for them so they care.
iSnow 4y ago
And what's wrong with stop-gap measures to prevent an energy crisis?
- nikolay 4y ago
  As we can see, sanctions and arm-twisting are not stopping the war, not weakening Russia. Not even politically given the recent elections in Russia! Even Ukraine keeps buying Russian gas and I can't recall any comment from otherwise very vocal Zenesky about it! If there are supply issues, is due to all the nonsense coming from EU, which only hurts it, not Russia. Even if EU deversifies from Russia, it will be at a dear price and it will take time and will only replace one dependency with another.
  - tjoff 4y ago
    How can we see that? Sanctions are long term. We are not long term yet.
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    - Sanctions are most definitely weakening Russia, by demolishing its economy in the medium- and long-term. - Russia has no elections since it's a near-totalitarian autocracy with usurpers firmly in charge by force. - Ukraine hasn't been buying Russian gas for about 5 years now. Russian gas is transited via Ukraine, even during the war, since it's a rare situation that's in the best interest of all parties to the conflict, but 0 gas is purchased by Ukraine from Russia. - Supply issues are due to a war of aggression and attempts to deprive the aggressor of a major revenue source (which no one claimed will stop the war immediately, it's a long-term/punitive move). - EU has no choice but to diversify from Russia, since the only alternative is neutering of the EU and vassalage in all foreign policy matters that Putin chooses. (A significant percentage of the people expressing concern about supply issues and advocating a reversal are in fact concern-trolling and probably want this to happen. Are you one of those?) Russia uses energy as a weapon, so it must be deprived of this weapon.
    - postsantum 4y ago
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Yemen isn't in Europe's backyard, and it isn't culturally European. If it was, you'd probably get a similar reaction.
- yabqk 4y ago
  Ukraine is as culturally European as Qatar.
  - i_no_can_eat 4y ago
    That's a very ridiculous thing to say.
    - yabqk 4y ago
      It’s hyperbolic, but yes, Ukraine is much more similar to Russia than to Western Europe.
      - kspacewalk2 4y ago
        Sneak "western" in there and move the goalposts, why don't you. Ukraine is culturally, geographically and geopolitically a European nation.
      - chitowneats 4y ago
        Russia and Ukraine are historically and culturally European. Russian expansion deep into Siberia is a relatively recent phenomenon. Sure, they're not Western European, but that's not what you said in your original comment.
        onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
        Moscow and St. Petersburg - which make up a huge chunk of Russia economically, politically, and in terms of population - are very European historically and culturally. But Russia is a gigantic country with a lot of population that isn't particularly European in any sense. Ukraine on the other hand is basically 100% European any way you want to slice it beside Putin's revisionist history.
nivenkos 4y ago
And Azerbaijan...
axus 4y ago
I'd heard that Qatar withdrew in 2017 and was perhaps supporting the Houthis now, could you point me to some sources about the situation in 2022 so I could get up to date? I thought it was Saudi Arabia and UAE who were actively waging war.

01100011 4y ago

It's going to be a tough winter. 100% storage still doesn't last very long relative to historical usage. Cutbacks will have to be dramatic and a lot of industry will need to be shuttered(and already is, see metal refining).