6 ms·

> Some departments such as Snap Minis & games, snap originals, and a few other things like that pixy will be cut heavily/stopped entirely. I wonder how much fa

> Some departments such as Snap Minis & games, snap originals, and a few other things like that pixy will be cut heavily/stopped entirely. I wonder how much fat is being debated to be trimmed at GOOG/AAPL.

SteveNuts 4y ago
The Google graveyard will probably double in size
Brystephor 4y ago
I imagine their businesses are more resilient due to more income streams. Snap is pretty dependent on advertising income. I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income is, but I'd assume the ratio is less. Apple has multiple sources of income and I would be surprised to see them do layoffs. I'm more curious about other companies such as Meta. Especially since Zuckerberg has openly stated there's probably people who shouldn't be there.
- dmitrygr 4y ago
  > I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income is basically 100%. Cloud makes a little, but mostly it is all paid for by ads
  - sitkack 4y ago
    Cloud has yet to turn a profit, but they are on the path to extract blood from stone.
    - Rastonbury 4y ago
      Cloud is high margin, its just that the battle with Azure and AWS is really bloody
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  > I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income Over 80% of Google's revenues are from advertising [0] Also, I can't find a source for it now, but I remember reading from a trusted industry journalist that roughly 25% of this advertising revenue is from startups and high-growth businesses. Seems too high to me, but I would expect at least 10% to be from startups. 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093781/distribution-of-googles-revenues-by-segment/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093781/distribution-of-...
  - Retric 4y ago
    Investing in stuff like self driving cars should be independent of current market conditions due to the size of their war chest. The profitable parts of the business are so profitable that would would take massive drops in advertising to really impact the bottom line.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      That's been true for every big company that faded away into obscurity. Or at least lost its erstwhile dominance. They usually have a product or division that does so well that it completely dominates the organization. Every part of the business becomes designed, organically or intentionally, to support this division. Innovation falters and new trends catch the incumbent off guard. While its not even close to dire straits for Google yet, the Gen-Z shift away from search is clearly a red flag and a sign that there's an entirely new trend that has caught Google off guard. Luckily they have YouTube, otherwise I'd be way more bearish on Google's future. Text-based search isn't going to grow by leaps and bounds, at least not in developed markets.
      - Retric 4y ago
        Google seems fairly diversified compared to many large companies. At least if you separate Search, YouTube, and other web properties from AdWords. Android and Chromebook is largely self sufficient via the play store, it’s really just Chrome that’s designed to support the rest of the business. https://fourweekmba.com/google-subsidiaries/ https://fourweekmba.com/google-subsidiaries/
- ssharp 4y ago
  I hypothesize that Google's Ad business is much less prone to fluctuation than Snap's as well as Meta's. With Google's ads targeted so heavily towards search and remarketing, there is significantly more purchase intent baked into the audience compared to social ads. It's also able to have more diversity since Facebook and Instagram are a lot more similar than Google Search and YouTube are. There's so much D2C on social and those types of businesses have really rode the COVID economy rollercoaster.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    Would you agree that you and I are "aware" of growth projects Apple is working on, but not necessarily aware of what growth projects Google is working on?
nekoashide 4y ago
As soon as they can quantify remote work as a metric that they can make personal decisions on.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  I'm sorry, I don't understand, can you expand?
peppertree 4y ago
Snap and Meta are getting their lunch eaten by TikTok. Google Apple Amazon are fine.
- bushbaba 4y ago
  Google still is an ads company. It’s not as well diversified as apple (hardware, services, ads) and amazon (cloud, retail, consumer electronics, logistics, healthcare,…etc)
  - paxys 4y ago
    iPhone hardware sales account for 50% of Apple's revenue, and that number goes up significantly when you allocate revenue from Apple Care, services, ads, App Store and more that are directly driven by iPhone. The entire company is reliant on that one device, so not quite as diversified as people think.
    - wiremine 4y ago
      True. I think it's also fair to say it's more of an ecosystem than a single product. The switching costs to another similar ecosystem are high.
    - matwood 4y ago
      It's better to say Apple is becoming less reliant on selling every iPhone user a new iPhone every year.
    - asdajksah2123 4y ago
      Apple can deploy several levers to increase non-iPhone revenue which they haven't yet. First party games. Ads. Increase first party paid app costs (final cut pro goes back to being a pro service). Developer services. All on the mac side. They also have cloud infrastructure they haven't focused on yet, but can potentially be a major source of revenue with the right hires and focus.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    Is Google trying to be anything other than an ads company? If so, what? I know they are famous for spinning up projects and killing them super quickly. If not, what are they doing? They have 140k+ employees worldwide. Is that what is needed to maintain their core ad business without focusing on growth of any kind (ad related or not)? If not... how many engineers/managers/whatever positions could they afford to "layoff" if we were to see US recessionary pressures/consumer spending pullback?
babypuncher 4y ago
Based on the increase in daily recruiting attempts I receive from those companies, I would guess that they are not looking to trim fat.
avrionov 4y ago
I can't predict the future, but there is one big difference between Snap and the FAANG companies. Snap hasn't been profitable for the last 5 years.
jbigelow76 4y ago
I wonder how much fat is being debated to be trimmed at GOOG/AAPL I bet Apple is going to let the mini-revolt over the return to office policy naturally thin its herd.
smugma 4y ago
Google were around in the Great Recession of 2009 so you can look there to see how they may react to a slowdown/recession. I recall at the time there were reports of something like 200 job cuts at each, <1% of their workforces at the time. I think both will have hiring slowdowns/freezes and of course Google will continue to shutter loved projects, but I'll be surprised if we see any significant (>1%) job cuts from either.

SteveNuts 4y ago

The Google graveyard will probably double in size

Brystephor 4y ago

I imagine their businesses are more resilient due to more income streams. Snap is pretty dependent on advertising income. I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income is, but I'd assume the ratio is less. Apple has multiple sources of income and I would be surprised to see them do layoffs. I'm more curious about other companies such as Meta. Especially since Zuckerberg has openly stated there's probably people who shouldn't be there.

dmitrygr 4y ago
> I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income is basically 100%. Cloud makes a little, but mostly it is all paid for by ads
- sitkack 4y ago
  Cloud has yet to turn a profit, but they are on the path to extract blood from stone.
  - Rastonbury 4y ago
    Cloud is high margin, its just that the battle with Azure and AWS is really bloody
spaceman_2020 4y ago
> I have no idea what Google's dependence on advertising income Over 80% of Google's revenues are from advertising [0] Also, I can't find a source for it now, but I remember reading from a trusted industry journalist that roughly 25% of this advertising revenue is from startups and high-growth businesses. Seems too high to me, but I would expect at least 10% to be from startups. 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093781/distribution-of-googles-revenues-by-segment/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093781/distribution-of-...
- Retric 4y ago
  Investing in stuff like self driving cars should be independent of current market conditions due to the size of their war chest. The profitable parts of the business are so profitable that would would take massive drops in advertising to really impact the bottom line.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    That's been true for every big company that faded away into obscurity. Or at least lost its erstwhile dominance. They usually have a product or division that does so well that it completely dominates the organization. Every part of the business becomes designed, organically or intentionally, to support this division. Innovation falters and new trends catch the incumbent off guard. While its not even close to dire straits for Google yet, the Gen-Z shift away from search is clearly a red flag and a sign that there's an entirely new trend that has caught Google off guard. Luckily they have YouTube, otherwise I'd be way more bearish on Google's future. Text-based search isn't going to grow by leaps and bounds, at least not in developed markets.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Google seems fairly diversified compared to many large companies. At least if you separate Search, YouTube, and other web properties from AdWords. Android and Chromebook is largely self sufficient via the play store, it’s really just Chrome that’s designed to support the rest of the business. https://fourweekmba.com/google-subsidiaries/ https://fourweekmba.com/google-subsidiaries/
ssharp 4y ago
I hypothesize that Google's Ad business is much less prone to fluctuation than Snap's as well as Meta's. With Google's ads targeted so heavily towards search and remarketing, there is significantly more purchase intent baked into the audience compared to social ads. It's also able to have more diversity since Facebook and Instagram are a lot more similar than Google Search and YouTube are. There's so much D2C on social and those types of businesses have really rode the COVID economy rollercoaster.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  Would you agree that you and I are "aware" of growth projects Apple is working on, but not necessarily aware of what growth projects Google is working on?

nekoashide 4y ago

As soon as they can quantify remote work as a metric that they can make personal decisions on.

MuffinFlavored 4y ago
I'm sorry, I don't understand, can you expand?

peppertree 4y ago

Snap and Meta are getting their lunch eaten by TikTok. Google Apple Amazon are fine.

bushbaba 4y ago
Google still is an ads company. It’s not as well diversified as apple (hardware, services, ads) and amazon (cloud, retail, consumer electronics, logistics, healthcare,…etc)
- paxys 4y ago
  iPhone hardware sales account for 50% of Apple's revenue, and that number goes up significantly when you allocate revenue from Apple Care, services, ads, App Store and more that are directly driven by iPhone. The entire company is reliant on that one device, so not quite as diversified as people think.
  - wiremine 4y ago
    True. I think it's also fair to say it's more of an ecosystem than a single product. The switching costs to another similar ecosystem are high.
  - matwood 4y ago
    It's better to say Apple is becoming less reliant on selling every iPhone user a new iPhone every year.
  - asdajksah2123 4y ago
    Apple can deploy several levers to increase non-iPhone revenue which they haven't yet. First party games. Ads. Increase first party paid app costs (final cut pro goes back to being a pro service). Developer services. All on the mac side. They also have cloud infrastructure they haven't focused on yet, but can potentially be a major source of revenue with the right hires and focus.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  Is Google trying to be anything other than an ads company? If so, what? I know they are famous for spinning up projects and killing them super quickly. If not, what are they doing? They have 140k+ employees worldwide. Is that what is needed to maintain their core ad business without focusing on growth of any kind (ad related or not)? If not... how many engineers/managers/whatever positions could they afford to "layoff" if we were to see US recessionary pressures/consumer spending pullback?

babypuncher 4y ago

Based on the increase in daily recruiting attempts I receive from those companies, I would guess that they are not looking to trim fat.

avrionov 4y ago

I can't predict the future, but there is one big difference between Snap and the FAANG companies. Snap hasn't been profitable for the last 5 years.

jbigelow76 4y ago

I wonder how much fat is being debated to be trimmed at GOOG/AAPL I bet Apple is going to let the mini-revolt over the return to office policy naturally thin its herd.

smugma 4y ago

Google were around in the Great Recession of 2009 so you can look there to see how they may react to a slowdown/recession. I recall at the time there were reports of something like 200 job cuts at each, <1% of their workforces at the time. I think both will have hiring slowdowns/freezes and of course Google will continue to shutter loved projects, but I'll be surprised if we see any significant (>1%) job cuts from either.