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California to ban the sale of new gasoline cars
- nocommandline 4y agoThis will take effect in 2035. From the article ....The decision, to take effect by 2035, will very likely speed a wider transition to electric vehicles because many other states follow California’s lead on tailpipe emissions....
- carride 4y agoRequires 35% of sales to be electric by 2026
- rhacker 4y agoThat's an extremely high percentage, is it possible?
- praestigiare 4y agoIt's almost exactly a linear extension of the trend from 2020 to now.
- rhacker 4y agoEven if that's true, it's just tracking EV availability. At some point if EV availability can't keep up, what happens?
- upupandup 4y agoit simply is not because EV cars are far out of reach for most Americans. Unless they are providing upto 95% subsidy most will not sell their ICE cars and will keep buying used ICE cars In fact this type of virtue signaling only hurts the people on the fringes because now the ICE car market and dealers will just cite this ban to markup their cars even more on top of the supply chain excuse. This is a "let them eat cake" moment on already widened wealth gap. The people at the top sure do care more about these things than their fellow Americans who are barely above the poverty line.
- OccamsMirror 4y agoAs if people who can't afford EVs buy brand new cars. This isn't banning the sale of ICE cars on the secondary market.
- upupandup 4y agoYour comment is classicist. People finance their cars and most EVs are far far above what you would get with an entry level cars. Now those market including secondary market are going to see a rise in prices. Just more wokeness to destroy California.
- praestigiare 4y agoThis is not true where I live. The cheapest electric cars here are only about 20% more than the cheapest entry level cars, and loans have better terms for electric, making the monthly cost almost the same. I am not sure how true it is in California, but even if it is, it clearly doesn't have to be.
- saltcured 4y agoThe proposed regulations are pretty complex, but it appears to also have a transitional strategy where PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) can count as ZEVs for this quota. During the transition years, the rules shift in terms of requiring more battery-only range from the PHEV to count as one ZEV, with a way to have lesser range PHEVs count as a fractional ZEV in the fleet. E.g. they require 70 miles of range for full credits, and partial credits for 43 miles of range. I can't speak to economic feasibility, but with the Toyota RAV4 being one of the most popular cars in the US and already being available as a PHEV, it doesn't seem that far-fetched to have these kinds of vehicles becoming a large portion of those sold.
- iancmceachern 4y agoIn the article it says it's a phased thing, 34% zero emissions vehicles by 2026 and 68% by 2030. 2026 is soon!
- mminer237 4y agoFor reference, ZEVs are so far 16% of sales in 2022, were 12% in 2021, and 8% in 2020. Edit: That makes 2026 almost exactly a linear forecast of the current trend, but 2030 is higher: https://i.imgur.com/J48LULx.png https://i.imgur.com/J48LULx.png
- mikece 4y agoCombined with the recent news item that at least one bank in Australia will cease offering loans for gasoline/diesel vehicles, the trend toward electric seems to be getting more coercive and less up to the consumer.
- xxpor 4y agoNo one ever said it's up to the consumer, it's up to the market. Granted, California banning them isn't the market, but the bank not offering loans is.
- mikece 4y agoConsumer demand -- or lack thereof -- drives the market. There have been massive product flops in the past... no level of supply or price cuts could get consumers to buy items they didn't want. I'm not saying that's the case with electric cars, only that consumers have to want them before it can succeed.
- xxpor 4y agoConsumer demand is shaped by credit availability. Regardless, the issue with electric cars right now is almost entirely supply constraints, not demand. You have to wait months or even over a year depending on which particular car you want.
- krnlpnc 4y agoBanks would only stop offering loans if required by law to stop, how is that different from a state or federal ban?
- mikece 4y agoNo, this was a bank who said they would stop offering loans for gas/diesel cars because of their corporate stand on environmental issues. It's only one bank for now. https://www.thedrive.com/news/australian-bank-wont-offer-loans-for-gas-or-diesel-cars-beyond-2025 https://www.thedrive.com/news/australian-bank-wont-offer-loa...
- twblalock 4y agoThis is aspirational virtue signaling and everyone knows it won't happen by the deadline. If the state government was serious about this, they would be installing chargers all over the place. I think there is a significant chance that a backlash against this kind of coercion will reduce support for climate policy as a whole and will ultimately be counterproductive for efforts to reduce emissions.
- dahart 4y agoI guess that’s one way to label a goal. If they can’t make the deadline, should this be backed off or canceled? FWIW it does seem like chargers are showing up all over the place.
- mimikatz 4y agoI'd vote that is a bad way to govern, I am not in Cali so I have no ability to affect this.
- OccamsMirror 4y agoOnly the impotent have the luxury of purity.
- dahart 4y agoI’m not sure I understand why, can you elaborate? Laws set standards and protect us, and we know they work even when they’re a blunt instrument. Seat belts took mandated action when lawmakers recognized that safety was more important than choice. Emissions and fuel economy standards are valuable. These are all things I agree with as a citizen and I’m glad that the government demands it of car companies. History is as likely to show this new one is as good an idea as the previous laws, and future generations will have the luxury of believing it was inevitable.
- mimikatz 4y agoBasically laws should be followed, they should be serious, they should be real. A law shouldn't be aspirational and people shouldn't go well that is a good goal to set.
- nprz 4y agoWhere will they get the energy to power all these new electric cars? Is the grid capable of handling the demand necessary to charge everyones car?
- peter422 4y agoThey'll probably upgrade it over the next decade.
- danielrpa 4y agoBecause California has a "great" track record with energy management? The infrastructure needs to be ensured before the mandate kicks in. Could be conditional on infrastructure targets, like X charging station within Y miles for all Californians
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- OccamsMirror 4y agoSo the answer is... do nothing? Aim for nothing? Just give up?
- peter422 4y agoMaybe 50 million people won't notice when the power stops working.
- OccamsMirror 4y agoBecause that's the only possible outcome?
- joshuaheard 4y agoNo, we already have rolling blackouts and they keep shutting down power plants (San Onofre, Klamath River). California is restricting water usage but they refuse permission for private companies to build desalination plants (Huntington Beach). I could see banning gas-powered cars, but after 90% of the people have already switched to electric and it's working great.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- danschumann 4y agoWe need a superhero scientist because I don't think electric cars are a strong enough a replacement in their current manifestation.
- iancmceachern 4y agoI'd argue that the electric cars are there today, it's the infrastructure that's lacking. If every gas station had a few EV chargers it would make all the difference. In the US yout rarely more than 50-100 miles from a gas station.
- yongjik 4y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... Almost all major industrial countries plan to ban ICE car sales by mid-2030s, some as early as 2025 (Norway). California's plan is not particularly ambitious. If anything, America is lagging behind the trend.
- louhike 4y agoYes, the city I'm living in is planning to do so also, it's one of the biggest french cities. My biggest issue with it is there is no plan to help poor people who will need to buy a new car or they won't be able to drive anymore in the city. Those policies must happen fast, but we should not sacrifice poor people to do so.
- mellavora 4y agoFrance is now offering a €4k e-bike subsidy to people who trade in their car (road.cc) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32562475 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32562475 yesterday
- khuey 4y agoI don't know about France but the plan in California is to end sales of new ICE cars. If you have an existing car you can keep using it.
- BitwiseFool 4y agoI wonder if this will end up being like the "Yank Tank" phenomenon in Cuba. If purchasing a replacement ICE automobile is out of the question, people will go to great lengths to keep the grandfathered ones in working condition. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yank_tank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yank_tank
- nradov 4y agoThe old Yank Tanks are simple and easy to service with some basic mechanical skill and tools. Spare parts can even be fabricated if necessary. But ICE vehicles built in the last couple decades have become exponentially more complex. They're more reliable, but also more fragile and harder to repair. This is particularly a problem for proprietary electronic parts such as control modules. Once replacement parts are no longer available from the manufacturer it will become impractical to keep those ICE cars running.
- 0xbadcafebee 4y agoThe article makes it sound like all 17 other states that have similar legislation might not pass it. They are going to pass it, that's not even a question. Because just like California, if 2034 rolls around and they aren't ready, they'll just extend the deadline. The thing that is actually worrying is the fuel economy restrictions by 2026. Most ICE cars will never get 55mpg by then. Mfgs will have to switch to selling hybrids, which most are not ready for (the pandemic pushed any such plans out by at least 3 years). If that doesn't get pulled, it could potentially damage automakers' sales and production plans.
- wffurr 4y agoThey should have all switched to selling nothing but hybrids ten years ago, but the US has a major structural political problem that prevented this.
- drumhead 4y agoDo they have the infrastructure in place to allow this to happen? Charging points, electricity generation capacity? Or is it just an unrealistic aspiration?
- david422 4y agoFWIW I just got an EV - Chevy Bolt. The car is quiet and performant. It probably costs $12 to "fill up". And I realize how little I actually drive- the range of 260+ miles is more than enough unless I'm going to take a large road trip. I've wanted an EV for a while. The Bolt is very competitively priced right now. I hope more people hop on the EV train. Every little bit counts. While I do not like regulation, I see more and more giant cars on the road, and it kindof makes me sad that this is the direction people seem to continue to be going.
- wollsmoth 4y agoYeah, the bolt seems like the good one right now. I truly have no need for a car, but if I did, I'd probably get one.
- darknavi 4y agoThe Mini EV looked like a great, small car if the form factor works for you.
- rahimnathwani 4y agoElectricity is more expensive in California. I pay an average of 35¢/kWh. According to Google, the Chevy Volt battery capacity is 60kWh. So $21 instead of $12.
- wcfields 4y agoIn SoCal I pay, at most, 28¢/kWh, but usually ~20¢/kWh with Time of Use [1]. You configure the car and/or EVSE to only charge at night when electricity is cheapest. [1] https://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/wcnav_externalId/a-fr-elecrate-schel?_adf.ctrl-state=16ubhea6bu_4&_afrLoop=387597917285600 https://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/wcnav_externalId/a-fr-elec... They should also couple a "nationalization" of PG&E with this too. Municipal run power is typically cheaper than investor owned power.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- rcpt 4y agoCities will be so much quieter.
- wise0wl 4y agoPerhaps because of trucks, yes---but I've found the majority of car noise is from the tires and not the engines. Most modern ICE cars are exceptionally quiet.
- darknavi 4y agoTrue, although parking lots will be spooky. Our 2018 Tesla Model 3 (pre-external speaker) is so quiet in parking lots/neighborhoods that people don't hear it sneaking up behind them. Really reminds me of this clip from The Office (US): https://youtu.be/HAIzFIOJA2c?t=59 https://youtu.be/HAIzFIOJA2c?t=59
- liquidise 4y agoTangential to the article: i've never understood how the EV transition will work for renters and high-density livers (high rises,etc). If you are in an apartment complex, how will charging look? Is it realistic to have charging ports at every (or even a majority of) reserved parking spots? It feels like there are some obvious logistical concerns for condo parking garages.
- gizmo686 4y agoIt's a capital expense to make the upgrade, and a political question of what should be done to require/encourage it. All you really need is a standard 120V outdoor outlet at each spot. Consider that for every one or two cars that need a single outlet (even if you put it on a dedicated circut), there is an entire apartment with about a dozen circuts, multiple outlets per circut, likely a mixture of 120 and 240 outlets, and several appliances that switch between 0 and 100% load unpredictably. If we can figure out the electrical engineering to make that work, I don't see the problem with wiring a garage for charging.
- wcfields 4y agoMy prediction is that there'll be a growing business of vulchers putting in pay-per-use chargers in large apartment buildings that the landlord gets a kickback on, much like overpriced washer/dryers.
- darknavi 4y ago> All you really need is a standard 120V outdoor outlet at each spot. 1) While that does technically work, it will be pretty slow. My Tesla Model Y charges 3-5 miles of range per hours on a 120V outlet. Perhaps fast enough for most though. 2) I was just in the Canadian Rockies (with said Tesla) and all outdoor parking spaces had outlets. AFAIK they were for the block heaters for harsh winters. It made charged over night slow but nice. Any parking space had them. Cold climates accidentally made it super convenient to park and charge for long stops.
- gizmo686 4y ago
- illuminerdy 4y agoMeh, I predict there will be a rise in 3rd party OEMs, resellers and restorers of "classic" gas cars. More annoying than the push for electric is the trend towards computers in cars. Cars used to be fairly easy to diagnose and maintain yourself. But nowadays you need more and more sophisticated troubleshooting equipment. I'll probably end up having one cool 90s car and one cool 60s car.
- addisonl 4y ago"3rd party OEMs" is a bit of a oxymoron.
- sleton38234234 4y agoThe arguments against EV cars is that they're too expensive. But an E-bike capable of 28mph (and seats 1) can be bought for just 800$ (i know because I bought one and use it to commute to work -> and it is fantastic!). The cheapest EV car costs 35K and can go 95mph+ (not that you would), and seats 5. Why is there nothing in between? Regulation. If we allowed the EV industries to innovate and create new products without such restrictive regulations, I think we'd see a ton of cheaper EV mobility options. I would venture to bet, you could even create 4 seaters capable of 50mph well under 10K$. You can always add more regulations later on, if you really need to, but without even allowing the innovation to take place in the first place, we'll never know what's possible.
- acejam 4y ago>The cheapest EV car costs 35K Chevy Bolt is $25k, before a bunch of credits. After it can get down to $16k or so.
- ssalka 4y agoUnless there will be further subsidies or EV prices come down by a lot, I just feel like this is going to end up with 1/2 the population being priced out of owning a car.
- GoodJokes 4y ago
- cpr 4y agoOh, this'll go well, in the state that can barely keep the power on, requiring millions of new electric cars to charge from same grid.
- ur-whale 4y agoI anticipate the birth of an entire Cuba-like industry of keeping old cars running by all means necessary [1] as well as means of producing gasoline from anything organic you can get your hands on. Reason: many people simply won't be able to buy a new electric car and will pay as they go to keep the old clunker going (especially given where the economy is headed). Fun times ahead. [1] https://discovercorps.com/blog/why-is-cuba-filled-with-classic-cars/ https://discovercorps.com/blog/why-is-cuba-filled-with-class...
- toomanyrichies 4y agohttps://archive.ph/AC08g https://archive.ph/AC08g
- rconti 4y agoTangential rant: What will it take to get the major media outlets to stop referring to Federal rules / Washington, D.C. colloquially as "Washington"? I think this is one of the most jarring examples I've seen recently. Even knowing what they're trying say, it reads wrong. > Experts said the new California rule, in both its stringency and reach, could stand alongside the Washington law as one of the world’s most important climate change policies, and could help take another significant bite out of the nation’s emissions of carbon dioxide. The new rule is also expected to influence new policies in Washington and around the world to promote electric vehicles and cut auto pollution.
- throw10920 4y agoGreat, now where's the regulation banning car manufacturers from charging you a recurring subscription for features with a fixed cost, which happens more often with electric cars than ICE vehicles? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32580027 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32580027
- perryizgr8 4y agoIf it requires banking, that means electric cars don't make sense yet, compared to internal combustion cars. If they were good enough, people would automatically switch without any need for a ban.