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Surging supply and softening demand weigh on chipmakers
- christkv 4y agoThis is good for everything relying on chips, hopefully it will help slow down costs.
- baxtr 4y agoIndependently from each other, two exile Chinese told me that China will go for Taiwan if they face severe economic problems at home. With that in mind it might be a good idea to stack up some chip supplies. PS: no clue why anyone would downvote something like that :)
- throwaway4good 4y agoI think it is much more likely that China will succeed in its chip production self sufficiency efforts, generating oversupply, indirectly contributing to an economic crisis in Taiwan (whos economy is overdependent on semi), and changing the winds back towards peaceful reunification.
- zeroth32 4y agoUS officials said they would recognize Taiwan, no matter of consequences. For China that is a readline. If there are sanctions or war with China, we will have much bigger problem. Current regime may even go nuclear.
- baxtr 4y agoNuclear against who? The US?
- zeroth32 4y agoAgainst China!
- baxtr 4y agoOk, just to get it right: You think it is possible that the US would go to war against China (in defense of Taiwan). And, that they would go so far to bomb mainland China with nukes?
- zeroth32 4y ago
- kristianov 4y agoI think they will bomb the Fabs in Taiwan. After all the Fabs are what they care about.
- bigDinosaur 4y agoThe US will not be bombing fabs in Taiwan.
- pjc50 4y agoIf the war starts with Taiwan, everybody will bomb the fabs. The Taiwanese probably have units detailed to do that to prevent their intact capture, just as Switzerland have mined every bridge and tunnel in the country. China will not capture the fabs.
- 7speter 4y agoEveryday tsmc and intel are closer to opening fabs in Arizona. Also Samsung proved they have some chops at producing decently cutting edge silicon with Nvidia’s ampere chips, if China does invade taiwan before the plants in Arizona open.
- beebmam 4y agoGood luck with that invasion! Say goodbye to anything resembling a Chinese state if that happens.
- throwaway0x7E6 4y agoyeah, I bet Ukraine had something like that in mind too
- christophilus 4y agoEeeh. I think there’s a decent chance that TSM is destroyed early in any campaign, and that the West gives Xi a stern letter saying, “You better not attack Japan.”
- anovikov 4y agoThis is what Putin just tried to do. Failed spectacularly. I'm honestly of better opinion of the CCP. Last time when they fucked up things that badly, was the Great Leap Forward and that was 65 years ago.
- pharmakom 4y agoAnd Russia is relatively self sufficient. No way could China follow this path.
- bipson 4y agoI don't think that's true anymore.
- paganel 4y agoThey will definitely follow that path if China can depend on Russia for mineral resources, and at this point it seems like it can depend. You don't need to control the seaways to bring iron, coal, gas or oil from Siberia and the Russian Far East into China. Mongolia next door has some of the biggest copper mines in the world that has just opened. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyu_Tolgoi_mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyu_Tolgoi_mine
- adrianN 4y agoHow self sufficient is Russia? I heard that they have plenty of natural resources, but not enough engineering to exploit them effectively without importing the necessary technology.
- christophilus 4y agoSounds like China and Russia are a match made in heaven, then.
- pharmakom 4y agoChina also imports expertise at the high end. Real value that Russia can bring to table for China is wheat production.
- hunglee2 4y agocommentary from exiles is the least reliable source of information, Iraq should've taught us this. The PRC policy on Taiwan has been consistent since 1949 - one china principle, otherwise renewal of hostilities. Chips have very little to do with it
- roenxi 4y agoWell, after what Russia did anything is possible. But the interesting question here is "why would they do that?". AFAIK Taiwan doesn't have any resources like Ukraine does. It has an amazing strategic presence militarily, but strengthening their military position in the Pacific doesn't immidiately help with an economic problem unless the US is trying to blockade them by sea.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> the interesting question here is "why would they do that?" China is not Russia. But Xi is weak. There was no reason to rush on Hong Kong when it was going to, without controversy, revert to Chinese law in a few decades. By being impatient, Xi undermined Chinese interests there, in Taiwan and internationally in favour of his personal political interests. If China invades Taiwan, it will be in recapitulation of Galtieri’s junta in the Falklands.
- hef19898 4y agoAnd militarily, as well as economically, an invasion of Taiwan is a lot less clear cut than it was before the war in Ukraine started. Plus, Taiwn would be an amphibious invasion, against a very well prepared and supported defender.
- unmole 4y agoInstead of letting democracy fester, potentially spreading the sentiment to the mainland, Xi has effectively neutralised the opposition in Hong Kong. Reading this as weakness is wishful thinking.
- christophilus 4y agoHistory suggests that countries go to war during economically challenging times. A dictator whose power is slipping also tends towards war. Sovereignty at sea is also a big attraction. Taiwan being a perennial thorn in the side of the Chinese regime is another. China has been getting more aggressive lately— flying military jets deep into Taiwanese air space. I would not be surprised if China made a move in the next 18 months.
- vosper 4y ago> two exile Chinese told me […] > PS: no clue why anyone would downvote something like that :) Because there’s no way of knowing whether these unamed exiles exist or, if they do, there’s any reason to think they would have any insight on the matter? This being the internet, it’s safer to assume you’re making the whole thing up (no offense intended ;) )
- baxtr 4y agoThanks for explaining :) ofc I’m not lying. But hey, you’re right anyone could say anything here!
- whatever1 4y agoIf they go for Taiwan, then storing chips will be my last priority. Potato chips and iodine will be much higher on my list.
- mycelia 4y agohttps://web.archive.org/web/20220710191240/https://www.economist.com/business/2022/07/10/after-a-turbocharged-boom-are-chipmakers-in-for-a-supersized-bust https://web.archive.org/web/20220710191240/https://www.econo...
- andrewstuart 4y agoI still can't buy Raspberry Pis.
- megous 4y agoOne of the downsides of having a large "community" and a great mindhsare around a single SBC manufacturer.
- lordnacho 4y agoIs this true? Pihut says they have them in stock, ready to ship. I've already got enough of them so I won't try ordering it.
- Cipater 4y agoThey're sold out on PiHut. >More boards are on order with our suppliers - select 'Notify Me' below and we'll email you as soon as stock is available.
- birdyrooster 4y agoJust spend 5X the price on eBay and you can have one.
- akmarinov 4y agoSo we’re finally through the chip shortage?
- willis936 4y agoThis has been the headline the past week. Why are prices lagging? There's been a modest decrease, but far from a crash. More critically: availability and lead times are still historically awful. I can't make business strategies on vaporware.
- hamilyon2 4y agoThe prices will fall and Jevon's paradox will kick in swiftly. If anything, world will see even more microcontrollers, memory, and CPUs used everywhere for decades to come.