6 ms·

Car wars: Analyst predicts GM, Ford will surpass Tesla EV sales by 2025

38 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

throwawaymanbot 4y ago
MilnerRoute 4y ago
"Tesla's more than 70% market share in EVs could drop to closer to 11% in the next three years, as competition increases from legacy and startup competitors." Also predicts EV adoption will be 20-25% in just a few years.
- MBCook 4y ago
  Now that I have one I get it. EVs are great. Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas I can see a lot of people switching pretty fast, assuming production can keep up.
  - itsoktocry 4y ago
    >Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas This is temporary, and likely why owning an EV now is such a good deal. Do you think the government is just going to give away the tax dollars and energy providers the revenue for nothing? Once the transition to EV is complete, the travel cost per $ will be similar, in my opinion.
    - amanaplanacanal 4y ago
      Did you mean cost per mile? Given that taxes are only a small portion of the cost of driving, costs could come down quite a bit while still giving the government their cut.
    - yazaddaruvala 4y ago
      Many states are already adding additional taxes for EVs[0], its still significantly cheaper than gas annually. $50-$200 per year, vs $50-$200 per tank of gas. Meanwhile, the feeling of driving an EV is so much smoother. The maintenance is so much cheaper. The lack of guilt, noise and smell makes me feel overall better. The only problem with EVs is that they are still too expensive for most people. [0] https://www.myev.com/research/interesting-finds/states-that-charge-extra-fees-to-own-an-electric-vehicle https://www.myev.com/research/interesting-finds/states-that-...
MBCook 4y ago
I’ve long suspected that there is nothing terribly special about Tesla. They were simply the only EV brand. People didn’t have much choice if they wanted an EV. They succeeded so much because they sold EVs. Yes the Leaf and Bolt exist but they’re not exactly close to Model 3 performance. And not well known at all compared to Tesla. Without the edge of being the “only” company with EVs is there any reason to think they’ll be big much longer? I’m not saying they’ll go out of business. But they may end up more Genesis than Ford. They have some advantages like they seems to have the most efficient tech, they’re best at OTA updates, and have a relatively strong battery supply ready. But is that enough given they’ll be competing against EVs from the entire industry? We’re about to find out.
- spaetzleesser 4y ago
  My guess is that Tesla will get bogged down by maintenance of cars that get older. It seems they have saved a lot of money by not setting up a service network but at some point they probably have to provide service and parts.
- echelon 4y ago
  Extremely limited anecdotal evidence: I recently talked to half a dozen contractors and they were much more excited about Rivian than Ford F-150 Lightning, citing a bad track record from Ford's new automotive hardware. They'd be open to F-150 after a few design iterations work out the kinks. What they wouldn't consider was CyberTruck. Electric pickup trucks will be a huge market, and Tesla doesn't seem to have a product for contractors and builders.
  - MBCook 4y ago
    That seems a little odd to me that you would trust a completely brand new company that has no track record over a not-perfect track record from a major manufacturer. Que sera. The CyberTruck thing makes sense. All though at this point I wonder if we ever see it at all (in something similar to its current form/promised specs). But that is a HUGE chunk of the American market. Ford is there, I saw one on the road earlier this week. Others like Chevy are coming.
  - 4y ago
corytheboyd 4y ago
That EV F150 looks badass, I hope it lives up to the hype! I just don't want to invest in something that should last me at LEAST one decade when the company behind it hasn't been around nearly as long as these legacy behemoths. Let alone the antics of Musk, to beat that dead horse some more. There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle. Will there be a Tesla? Even if the service is hard to get, it's there. Idk time to get downvoted by Tesla diehards lol. This isn't a hill I will die on, just how I feel about it all right now.
- helpfulclippy 4y ago
  My experience with each of the Big 3 has been that they produce mediocre cars with awful service. I've never owned a Tesla, and I dunno if I ever will, but I'm certainly not repeating a mistake with Chrysler, GM or Ford no matter WHAT kind of motor they put in there. And it's because of this: > There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle There will likely be a network of dealers who are well-equipped, but probably not well-staffed. And the staff that are there are either not well-trained, or too-well-trained in the art of bullshit.
  - MrMan 4y ago
    I have had a few gm evs and they are really great cars and I never take them to the shop except once for a recall, over 3 Cars. Much better than Porsche and Audis I have had and have, they cost a lot to run and are in the shop alot
mbushey 4y ago
Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in. Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts so they can build the millions and millions of cars that Austin and Berlin will each be making annually. All this while Ford and GM will be producing tens of thousands of EV's, which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for. Ford and GM are claiming to spend billions on battery plants to make batteries that are already obsolete, and have no source for the raw materials to make these out-dated batteries. Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in. Tesla doesn't spend money with traditional advertisers. They have a marketing budget, you can see it in their financials. >Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts What "massive" mining contracts do they have? >which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for. Tesla buys batteries from third parties like everyone else. >Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat. Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention?
  - MarkusQ 4y ago
    > Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention? I see what you did there: comparing Hyundai's current numbers to Tesla's numbers from ten years ago (when they were a startup). I'm sure you could make a similar argument to make it sound like Barns and Nobels was beating the paints off Amazon. For a more realistic comparison, Hyundai sold ~50K EVs in Q1 2022, and Tesla sold ~300K in the same period.
  - hackernewds 4y ago
hitovst 4y ago
It might be that GM, and Ford, will sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025, which would mean people stopped purchasing Teslas. I didn't think it possible for GM or Ford to manufacture more EVs than Tesla by 2025, though.
oneoff786 4y ago
So long as Tesla is still ramping up production rapidly and still selling out as quickly as they can produce cars I don’t think anyone will care. They may lose market share, but that’s hardly a problem if it’s due to other entrants in a rapidly growing market.
aetherson 4y ago
Yeah, we'll see. I'm not a Tesla fanboy, and I actually have a Bolt, which I love. But recent history is littered with, "Oh, as soon as some big company competes with Tesla, Tesla will suddenly lose" predictions. What we actually see is recalls for the Bolt and the Mustang Mach-E. Tesla will clearly lose market share in EVs at some point. Will it fall way behind in the next three years? I personally doubt it.
remontoire 4y ago
So the reason he thinks this is because GM and ford have announced more "models". At no point has the limiting factor been the number of models. The limiting factor is and will be battery cell supply. This article makes no mention of legacy OEMs making any attempt at solving their supply constraints.
- paulmendoza 4y ago
  Yes, exactly!
bhouston 4y ago
Apple was once seen as destined to lose the smartphone market as everyone and their dog brought out an Android phone. Android phones were and are still cheaper and everywhere. But Apple still manages to make the large majority of profit in the smartphone market anyhow. Will Tesla follow the Apple model here with electric cars as the competition heats up? I am not sure.
rasz 4y ago
Tesla has proven battery. >GM, Ford will surpass GM went with LG Chem and had to recall cars burning peoples homes/garages (cost $2 billion). Ford picked SK, good news there considering SK batteries ... are stolen LG technology and will probably also blow up https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/15/itc-sides-with-lg-chem-in-sk-innovation-patent-infringement-case/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/15/itc-sides-with-lg-chem-...
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  Tesla went with Panasonic. If they own their battery technology, that is a recent development. They are a big fan of showing off Panasonic's technology as their own.
rsynnott 4y ago
I mean, they're already third or fourth in Europe; it doesn't seem unreasonable that they'd fall behind in the US as well.

38 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

"Tesla's more than 70% market share in EVs could drop to closer to 11% in the next three years, as competition increases from legacy and startup competitors." Also predicts EV adoption will be 20-25% in just a few years.

MBCook 4y ago
Now that I have one I get it. EVs are great. Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas I can see a lot of people switching pretty fast, assuming production can keep up.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas This is temporary, and likely why owning an EV now is such a good deal. Do you think the government is just going to give away the tax dollars and energy providers the revenue for nothing? Once the transition to EV is complete, the travel cost per $ will be similar, in my opinion.
  - amanaplanacanal 4y ago
    Did you mean cost per mile? Given that taxes are only a small portion of the cost of driving, costs could come down quite a bit while still giving the government their cut.
  - yazaddaruvala 4y ago
    Many states are already adding additional taxes for EVs[0], its still significantly cheaper than gas annually. $50-$200 per year, vs $50-$200 per tank of gas. Meanwhile, the feeling of driving an EV is so much smoother. The maintenance is so much cheaper. The lack of guilt, noise and smell makes me feel overall better. The only problem with EVs is that they are still too expensive for most people. [0] https://www.myev.com/research/interesting-finds/states-that-charge-extra-fees-to-own-an-electric-vehicle https://www.myev.com/research/interesting-finds/states-that-...

MBCook 4y ago

I’ve long suspected that there is nothing terribly special about Tesla. They were simply the only EV brand. People didn’t have much choice if they wanted an EV. They succeeded so much because they sold EVs. Yes the Leaf and Bolt exist but they’re not exactly close to Model 3 performance. And not well known at all compared to Tesla. Without the edge of being the “only” company with EVs is there any reason to think they’ll be big much longer? I’m not saying they’ll go out of business. But they may end up more Genesis than Ford. They have some advantages like they seems to have the most efficient tech, they’re best at OTA updates, and have a relatively strong battery supply ready. But is that enough given they’ll be competing against EVs from the entire industry? We’re about to find out.

spaetzleesser 4y ago
My guess is that Tesla will get bogged down by maintenance of cars that get older. It seems they have saved a lot of money by not setting up a service network but at some point they probably have to provide service and parts.
echelon 4y ago
Extremely limited anecdotal evidence: I recently talked to half a dozen contractors and they were much more excited about Rivian than Ford F-150 Lightning, citing a bad track record from Ford's new automotive hardware. They'd be open to F-150 after a few design iterations work out the kinks. What they wouldn't consider was CyberTruck. Electric pickup trucks will be a huge market, and Tesla doesn't seem to have a product for contractors and builders.
- MBCook 4y ago
  That seems a little odd to me that you would trust a completely brand new company that has no track record over a not-perfect track record from a major manufacturer. Que sera. The CyberTruck thing makes sense. All though at this point I wonder if we ever see it at all (in something similar to its current form/promised specs). But that is a HUGE chunk of the American market. Ford is there, I saw one on the road earlier this week. Others like Chevy are coming.
- 4y ago

corytheboyd 4y ago

That EV F150 looks badass, I hope it lives up to the hype! I just don't want to invest in something that should last me at LEAST one decade when the company behind it hasn't been around nearly as long as these legacy behemoths. Let alone the antics of Musk, to beat that dead horse some more. There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle. Will there be a Tesla? Even if the service is hard to get, it's there. Idk time to get downvoted by Tesla diehards lol. This isn't a hill I will die on, just how I feel about it all right now.

helpfulclippy 4y ago
My experience with each of the Big 3 has been that they produce mediocre cars with awful service. I've never owned a Tesla, and I dunno if I ever will, but I'm certainly not repeating a mistake with Chrysler, GM or Ford no matter WHAT kind of motor they put in there. And it's because of this: > There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle There will likely be a network of dealers who are well-equipped, but probably not well-staffed. And the staff that are there are either not well-trained, or too-well-trained in the art of bullshit.
- MrMan 4y ago
  I have had a few gm evs and they are really great cars and I never take them to the shop except once for a recall, over 3 Cars. Much better than Porsche and Audis I have had and have, they cost a lot to run and are in the shop alot

mbushey 4y ago

Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in. Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts so they can build the millions and millions of cars that Austin and Berlin will each be making annually. All this while Ford and GM will be producing tens of thousands of EV's, which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for. Ford and GM are claiming to spend billions on battery plants to make batteries that are already obsolete, and have no source for the raw materials to make these out-dated batteries. Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat.

itsoktocry 4y ago
>Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in. Tesla doesn't spend money with traditional advertisers. They have a marketing budget, you can see it in their financials. >Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts What "massive" mining contracts do they have? >which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for. Tesla buys batteries from third parties like everyone else. >Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat. Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention?
- MarkusQ 4y ago
  > Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention? I see what you did there: comparing Hyundai's current numbers to Tesla's numbers from ten years ago (when they were a startup). I'm sure you could make a similar argument to make it sound like Barns and Nobels was beating the paints off Amazon. For a more realistic comparison, Hyundai sold ~50K EVs in Q1 2022, and Tesla sold ~300K in the same period.
- hackernewds 4y ago

hitovst 4y ago

It might be that GM, and Ford, will sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025, which would mean people stopped purchasing Teslas. I didn't think it possible for GM or Ford to manufacture more EVs than Tesla by 2025, though.

oneoff786 4y ago

So long as Tesla is still ramping up production rapidly and still selling out as quickly as they can produce cars I don’t think anyone will care. They may lose market share, but that’s hardly a problem if it’s due to other entrants in a rapidly growing market.

aetherson 4y ago

Yeah, we'll see. I'm not a Tesla fanboy, and I actually have a Bolt, which I love. But recent history is littered with, "Oh, as soon as some big company competes with Tesla, Tesla will suddenly lose" predictions. What we actually see is recalls for the Bolt and the Mustang Mach-E. Tesla will clearly lose market share in EVs at some point. Will it fall way behind in the next three years? I personally doubt it.

remontoire 4y ago

So the reason he thinks this is because GM and ford have announced more "models". At no point has the limiting factor been the number of models. The limiting factor is and will be battery cell supply. This article makes no mention of legacy OEMs making any attempt at solving their supply constraints.

paulmendoza 4y ago
Yes, exactly!

bhouston 4y ago

Apple was once seen as destined to lose the smartphone market as everyone and their dog brought out an Android phone. Android phones were and are still cheaper and everywhere. But Apple still manages to make the large majority of profit in the smartphone market anyhow. Will Tesla follow the Apple model here with electric cars as the competition heats up? I am not sure.

rasz 4y ago

Tesla has proven battery. >GM, Ford will surpass GM went with LG Chem and had to recall cars burning peoples homes/garages (cost $2 billion). Ford picked SK, good news there considering SK batteries ... are stolen LG technology and will probably also blow up https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/15/itc-sides-with-lg-chem-in-sk-innovation-patent-infringement-case/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/15/itc-sides-with-lg-chem-...

pclmulqdq 4y ago
Tesla went with Panasonic. If they own their battery technology, that is a recent development. They are a big fan of showing off Panasonic's technology as their own.

rsynnott 4y ago

I mean, they're already third or fourth in Europe; it doesn't seem unreasonable that they'd fall behind in the US as well.