13 ms·

Now Monkeypox

118 points by _Microft 4y ago

tamaharbor 4y ago
Appropriately, 2022 is the Year of the Monkey.
walterbell 4y ago
WHO is meeting this week to vote on amendments to international health regulations, https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-far-reaching-us-proposals-to-amend-the-international-health-regulations-at-the-upcoming-75th-world-health-assembly-a-call-for-attention/ https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-far-reaching-us-proposals-to-am... > proposed US amendments to Article 12 IHR will both considerably extend the executive powers of the WHO Director-General to declare global emergency-like situations and centralise this power further by removing the need to consult and find agreement with the respective state party ... Articles 9 and 10 IHR moreover strengthen WHO’s powers to assess alleged global health risks by relying on information received outside official channels, giving the respective states only 24 hours to verify such information. > ... if WHO’s powers are extended in this way, is there a need to also answer the question quis custodiet ipsos custodes (who guards the guards?), and to thus set up mechanisms ensuring that WHO complies with its obligations under the IHR and its Constitution, as well as its responsibilities for human rights deriving from customary international human rights law? WHO's Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) site has videos from their April 2022 meeting: https://inb.who.int https://inb.who.int
- no-dr-onboard 4y ago
  > and centralise this power further by removing the need to consult and find agreement with the respective state party This is discomforting. Genuinely curious how anyone would see this as anything more than a power grab.
  - WalterGR 4y ago
    Is it intended to remove politics from science?
    - at-fates-hands 4y ago
      By replacing it with unilateral power? Yeah, what could go wrong with that?
      - nix23 4y ago
        1984 but instead of televisions with pee-bottles and blood-tests ;))
  - fragsworth 4y ago
    The WHO is not really "powerful" like a nation is, as they do not have a military or enforcement arm, and they do not pass laws. All they can do is decide how their funds get spent. They are granted all these "powers" to spend their funds by the participating states. Furthermore, they are restricted to spending it on things that promote world health. The worst they can do is squander the money, which isn't even all that much. Compare this to people like Jeff Bezos who have vastly more money, 100% centralized, and effectively no restrictions on how they spend it. Whether you should be concerned about that is up for argument, but by contrast, any concerns about the WHO are pretty absurd.
    - no-dr-onboard 4y ago
      > The WHO is not really "powerful" like a nation is, as they do not have a military or enforcement arm, and they do not pass laws. True, but a majority of policy makers and talking heads (that influence and approve laws) carry out their deeds under the guise of "Well, the WHO says so". Consider how frequently the "appeal to authority" tactic was used during the pandemic. This isn't entirely without consequence.
      - runarberg 4y ago
        But still consider the relativity here. The risk of a malicious WHO is insignificant next to the risk of rich industrialists like Jeff Bezos. Very wealthy and powerful entities like Jeff Bezos do lobby and influence governments and media on a totally different scale then international organizations such as WHO. And more often then not these industrialists do succeed in bending policy to their favor at the cost of everyone else. Maybe this isn’t without consequence, but relatively speaking the risk of negative consequences are next to nothing.
- TimTheTinker 4y ago
  > centralise this power That's the part I take issue with. Any time power becomes centralized (including during emergency situations) it leads to loss of individual freedoms, and often increased anthropogenic (=human-caused) suffering.
  - new_stranger 4y ago
    If you were wealthier you would understand the importance of centralized power /s
    - TimTheTinker 4y ago
      There's a big difference between centralized power and coordinated action facilitated by wise leadership. The latter does not require the former, contrary to what some people might say -- those who wish to hold unfettered power, or those who wish to be ruled over by one holding such power.
      - new_stranger 4y ago
        The issue is you and I know this, but they don't
    - slickrick216 4y ago
      Or the opposite.
    - maxbond 4y ago
      ETA: I made this comment before the author clarified they were being sarcastic. I'd propose that if you made more of an effort to be empathetic with people who lack access to wealth and privilege, you'd understand better the criticisms of centralizing power and power structures in general. "You don't understand because you can't see my perspective" goes any which way, and so is not an argument. If their are artifacts of your perspective that we need to form a full and coherent view - then share them with us. If you're just looking to be patronizing and dismissive because you only value a certain perspective - then please reconsider.
- leemelone 4y ago
- codefreeordie 4y ago
  - taylorius 4y ago
    - codefreeordie 4y ago
      or whatever they decide to push next when people stop being afraid of this one
      - taylorius 4y ago
        Take a look at what "simulations" the usual globalist suspects are running at their conferences. Both Covid and Monkeypox were the subject of such simulations in the years before they emerged as "OMG we're so ill prepared" pandemics.
      - Datagenerator 4y ago
        View the report here: https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO...
        codefreeordie 4y ago
        That report presents clearly the reasons why entities like the CDC must be eliminated. They declare the need for the ability to have a single unaccountable bureaucrat with the ability to permanently lock down the entire planet or to take any other freedom-destroying action on a "no regrets" basis. At the first sign of a "threat", real or imagined, it's purge the commoners and don't ask questions later. They have demonstrated that it is unsafe for freedom to have such entities.
  - outworlder 4y ago
    > And what do you know, just in time for them to gain unopposable, unaccountable ability to lock down the entire world whenever they want Who benefits from 'lockdowns'? The economy slows down, workers stop working and lining up powerful people's pockets. Tourism plummets, supply chains gets disrupted. It's not profitable. Even a war brings profits. Lockdowns don't. Mind you, most countries didn't experience any lockdowns at all. Not every organization is conspiring against you. If anything, the media was regularly pushing to reopen business even as hospitals struggle.
- thedrbrian 4y ago
  Fascinating look at their new proposal https://twitter.com/criticalsway/status/1526464386386345984 https://twitter.com/criticalsway/status/1526464386386345984 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526464386386345984.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526464386386345984.html
  - walterbell 4y ago
    Thanks for posting this plain-english summary.
- adrianmonk 4y ago
  > WHO is meeting this week This seems off topic. The article is about monkeypox. The WHO meeting is about regulations. Yes, they are both public health issues, but that's about as close of a connection as there is.
qwerty456127 4y ago
I have always felt angry they stopped smallpox vaccination before I was born. Now all the boomers are immune and we are not.
- seaman1921 4y ago
  - jonplackett 4y ago
    [flagged]
- nix23 4y ago
  Why not just get your smallpox vaccination? Hint it's 35 swiss franks. ...when you visit Switzerland (in the tropical institute) ;)
  - dthul 4y ago
    afaik no smallpox vaccine is currently approved in Switzerland (according to https://www.nau.ch/politik/bundeshaus/affenpocken-swissmedic-hat-impfstoff-nicht-zugelassen-66183103 https://www.nau.ch/politik/bundeshaus/affenpocken-swissmedic...)
    - nix23 4y ago
      Why do you link a monkeypox article? That is smallpox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox And that's the vaccine in 1980: https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co148656/smallpox-vaccine-berne-switzerland-1980-vaccine-smallpox https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co14865... Your article means that the smallpox vaccine is not approved for monkeypox...please read at least your article. https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/krankheiten-im-ueberblick/variola.html https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/krankheiten... >>Unser Land verfügt zudem über einen Notfallplan (Isolierung der Erkrankten, Quarantäne, Impfung exponierter Personen und Dekontamination von Gegenständen) sowie über eine genügende Menge eines Pockenimpfstoffes der 1. Generation, der für die Impfung einzelner Bevölkerungsgruppen bis hin zur Gesamtbevölkerung ausreicht. Zudem werden derzeit antivirale Medikamente entwickelt. >>Our country also has an emergency plan (isolation of the sick, quarantine, vaccination of exposed persons and decontamination of objects) and a sufficient quantity of a 1st generation smallpox vaccine for vaccination of individual population groups up to the entire population. In addition, antiviral drugs are currently being developed.
david_l_lin 4y ago
The rise of zoonotic infections should not be surprising at all given the rate of deforestation and general disregard for nature.
- DerArzt 4y ago
  Yeah, but monkeypox isn't a new one. It's been around since the 70's.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  We were averaging a potential pandemic every 3 or so years for the last ~20 years. Original SARS, Bird Flu part 1, MERS, Swine Flu (arguably an actual pandemic), Bird Flu part 2, Covid. No one should be surprised that there's a new possible pandemic 3 years after Covid. If this ends up being another actual pandemic - that would be surprising.
  - johndfsgdgdfg 4y ago
- husainfazel 4y ago
  Add gain of function / deliberate bio-terrorism in there as well. Feb 1992 - a Soviet defector revealed to Western intelligence that he had overseen an extensive, illegal programme to develop smallpox into a highly effective biological weapon: > Ken Alibek believes that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, unemployed or badly-paid scientists are likely to have sold samples of smallpox clandestinely and gone to work in rogue states engaged in illicit biological weapons development. https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/pox_weapon_01.shtml https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/pox_weapon_0... June 1998 - The WHO recommends that all smallpox samples should be destroyed https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199808203390811 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199808203390811 Feb 2002 - WHO says that Russia and US can keep their smallpox samples https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/02/wide-range-smallpox-research-efforts-cited-who-decision-retain-virus-stocks https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/02/wide-ran... Nov 2002 - CIA claims that Russia, France, Iraq and North Korea have "secret" stashes of small pox (erm you already know Russia has them, that's not a secret) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/11/cia-believes-four-nations-have-secret-smallpox-virus-stocks-report-says https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/11/cia-beli... Sep 2019 - Explosion and fire break out at Russian lab known for housing deadly smallpox virus https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/health/russia-lab-explosion-smallpox-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/health/russia-lab-explosion-s... https://www.livescience.com/russia-lab-stores-smallpox-explosion-fire.html https://www.livescience.com/russia-lab-stores-smallpox-explo...
historia_novae 4y ago
>"No one died in the 2003 outbreak" Yet we will be stripped of our rights again for the exclusive benefits of a fews mega-corps and the "news" reportings are preparing the ground for it. At least this time I'll have some money to invest in the company producing the vaccine.
- Vecr 4y ago
  Look up "ACAM2000" and "JYNNEOS", those are the candidate vaccines for widespread use in the US.
RspecMAuthortah 4y ago
I had smallpox growing up in a third world country, how protective would the immunity be going against that?
- jonny_eh 4y ago
  Apparently the smallpox vaccine protects against monkeypox, I imagine recovering from one would protect against the other.
  - mmastrac 4y ago
    Not total but some protection. The last article I read suggested a fully vaxxed person still had a couple of lesions (how it was detected). Definitely better than a full blown attack.
- etiam 4y ago
  As Lowe notes in the blog piece, statements of about 85% protection from the smallpox vaccine are going around. I haven't seen anything in particular about the protection resulting from a full-blown, non-attenuated infection, but as I understand it from discussions apropos another pathogen of fame lately, the rule of thumb is more comprehensive and lasting immunity from going through the disease as compared to vaccinations. That is, I believe you ought to be in great shape compared to most of the world population. What was it like? If it can be meaningfully described...
- retrac 4y ago
  Big caveat: we don't actually know, because it hasn't been studied, because human monkeypox is very rare. Still, some conjecture: You're very probably immune. Recovery from smallpox almost always meant life-long immunity and re-infection was basically unknown when it was common. The orthopoxviruses are known to have a lot of cross-immunity. People who get cowpox are immune to smallpox, and vice versa. The classic smallpox vaccine used widely in the 20th century was just a very mild strain of pox (genetically somewhere between smallpox and cowpox, and of uncertain origin now lost to history) which causes almost no illness in humans.
rogerallen 4y ago
"another less in [sic] real-time virology" A typo in the first sentence? In Science? Wow...
- frogpelt 4y ago
  Yes, but it's a blog.
- _Microft 4y ago
  "In the pipeline" is a blog by Mr. Lowe and was only recently moved to the science.org domain (it could be found at blogs.sciencemag.org before). I wouldn't expect his articles to be proof-read by anyone else but himself to be honest.
  - etiam 4y ago
    Since Science Magazine was also at sciencemag.org until recently, I don't really see that the move indicates anything about change in the relation between it and "In the Pipeline". I pretty much agree about the proof-reading though.
    - _Microft 4y ago
      Was it? I didn't remember that. Thanks for the correction.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- WalterGR 4y ago
  Looks like speech-to-text gone bad. I'd call it an editing error.
- SoftTalker 4y ago
  Yeah, I saw that too, and thought he probably uses a speech-to-text approach to drafting his articles. That seems like the sort of mistake speech recognition would make. But it could also be auto-correct or even a real typo.
rsweeney21 4y ago
tldr: "Overall, I would say that this is in the don't-panic-but-keep-a-close-eye-on category."
latchkey 4y ago
"The scenario (from march 2021) simulates a monkeypox outbreak in starting in 'brinia' on 15 May 2022 that was an engineered strain for vaccine resistance." https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO... It's some coincidence there is an actual outbreak in May 2022 in Britain.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- therein 4y ago
  Kinda funny that you are being downvoted. Even the date was spot on. But you're getting the downvotes from the "oh they do these things all the time" crowd.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    The same post got 12 upvotes so I'll call it even... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31455056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31455056 HN works in mysterious ways, so I just upvoted you. =)
- throwaway821909 4y ago
  "the outbreak takes place during a national holiday with extensive domestic and international travel by Brinians" "population 250 million" Doesn't sound like Britain at the moment
bigmattystyles 4y ago
If not for our COVID-19 reflexive memory would this still be a huge story or does it just get hits? I'm genuinely asking, it's good to be informed and help out those afflicted but is this just an easy way to get eyeballs? (I just realize I may sound like a kook saying `it's the media` but I'm genuinely curious)
- k__ 4y ago
  Probably. As far as I know, they aren't air transmittable, so I don't see the problem.
  - maxerickson 4y ago
    It can spread by droplets (lesions do develop in the mouth).
- DANK_YACHT 4y ago
  SARS, MERS, and Swineflu all garnered attention at the time. An outbreak of a new disease is interesting, regardless of what happened the last 2+ years.
  - AnonCoward4 4y ago
    It's noteworthy for sure, however I am more annoyed by how it is reported. It was always like that for sure, however when the same medium proclaims being the arbiter of truth (fact checkers) I get really disgusted.
- flavius29663 4y ago
  Probably not, there have been countless outbreaks and epidemics in the past, all got some attention and media scare. But we haven't had a pandemic since 1920s, so I would bet on the 99.9% chance of it being just a media scare, rather than a new pandemic.
  - chaosite 4y ago
    You mean, haven't had a pandemic since 2020?
brodouevencode 4y ago
Transmission information according to the CDC: Transmission of monkeypox virus occurs when a person comes into contact with the virus from an animal, human, or materials contaminated with the virus. The virus enters the body through broken skin (even if not visible), respiratory tract, or the mucous membranes (eyes, nose, or mouth). Animal-to-human transmission may occur by bite or scratch, bush meat preparation, direct contact with body fluids or lesion material, or indirect contact with lesion material, such as through contaminated bedding. Human-to-human transmission is thought to occur primarily through large respiratory droplets. Respiratory droplets generally cannot travel more than a few feet, so prolonged face-to-face contact is required. Other human-to-human methods of transmission include direct contact with body fluids or lesion material, and indirect contact with lesion material, such as through contaminated clothing or linens. https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html
- bufferoverflow 4y ago
  So basically you either have to cough into someone's face, or kiss them, or get bitten, or have sex with them to transmit the virus. Stop worrying. This isn't another coronavirus-level pandemic.
  - GekkePrutser 4y ago
    Not to mention most of the identified infections were sex-related, making it even less of an issue. Most people aren't promiscuous so it will be very difficult to spread far that way. There's other transmission routes of course but they seem to be much less potent.
  - tonyg 4y ago
    FTA: "people are poring over the data right now and comparing it to "classic" monkeypox sequences to see if this a new variant, perhaps with enhanced transmissibility. So far there are no glaring signs of that, but this work is very much ongoing; it's just too early to draw any conclusions."
  - at-fates-hands 4y ago
baggy_trough 4y ago
I have read that the outbreak is concentrated in gay men via sexual transmission. The article doesn't say anything about that, which I would say is par for the course for public health communication, if this is indeed the case.
- andrewclunn 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - cardiffspaceman 4y ago
    I'm not sure what you're saying agrees with the fact that people informally called AIDS "gay cancer" before it had an official name that was a little memorable.
  - macintux 4y ago
    I remember when AIDS was spreading and it was described as “gay cancer” and mostly ignored by the U.S. administration because of that.
    - mdp2021 4y ago
      Just found this: > New York Times headline: "Rare cancer seen in 41 homosexuals” http://www.nytimes.com/1981/07/03/us/rare-cancer-seen-in-41-homosexuals.html http://www.nytimes.com/1981/07/03/us/rare-cancer-seen-in-41-...
  - Supermancho 4y ago
    I remember. Homosexuality was still largely taboo and sex was definitely not something mentioned on the news, until some tipping point where it became normalized. People tend to remember the after, not the before for this specific transition.
  - m0a0t0 4y ago
    Here's Reagan's press secretary laughing and joking about "the gay plague" when only a few hundred had died, you homophobic ghoul https://www.vox.com/2015/12/1/9828348/ronald-reagan-hiv-aids https://www.vox.com/2015/12/1/9828348/ronald-reagan-hiv-aids
karaterobot 4y ago
To summarize the linked blog post (emphasis because this is not a news article, an urgent bulletin, or a report on research findings): Cases of Monkeypox have been popping up around the world. Monkeypox is not a new disease, is "not particulary contagious", and is rarely fatal. The provocative thing is that numerous cases are popping up at the same time in different parts of the world.
- h2odragon 4y ago
  Its a blog post from an author with a long history of effectively communicating complex things without extra hype and with entertainment value. Don't miss the "things I wont work with" posts.
tikkun 4y ago
This virus is a great place for effective altruism biosecurity projects to focus. By building up expertise solving real challenges, we'll be in a better spot with future pandemics. Anti-fragility by figuring out small challenges so we're better prepared for the big ones.
- _Microft 4y ago
  You might be happy to learn about CEPI [0][1], the "Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations". They have the goal to ship vaccines 100 days [2] after outbreak of a pandemic by doing a lot of the research and testing in advance. They plan to create "templates" for vaccines for two dozen different viruses that pose a risk of causing a pandemic and test these in advance for safety and dosage, so that they only need to be slightly tweaked for an actual pandemic. [0] https://cepi.net/ https://cepi.net/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Preparedness_Innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Prepare... [2] https://100days.cepi.net/100-days/ https://100days.cepi.net/100-days/
paywallasinbeer 4y ago
Interesting context: WHO officials said: "the most recent surge in cases appears to have been spread among men who have sex with other men" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primar...
- truthwhisperer 4y ago
- twofornone 4y ago
  - m0a0t0 4y ago
    >It was the same with the aids epidemic, the gay community ignored/denied/downplayed the demographic localization of HIV but the truth was that at it's height if you were not a gay male the epidemic was effectively irrelevant to your life. There are a hell of a lot of people - and a hell of a lot of people who have sadly died - who would be very surprised to hear this. It's a pretty accepted view by those that study the AIDS epidemic that calling it a gay plague caused massive problems for people who weren't gay and contracted HIV. Singling out gay men for what you have decided are immoral behaviours is exactly why there is a stigma around HIV and why people continue to fail to seek treatment.
    - adnzzzzZ 4y ago
      This is so true. What really terrifies me is if this new monkeypox became more easily transmissible and killed millions of people. Imagine the backlash against homosexuals?
      - twofornone 4y ago
        ...imagine the millions of dead people? What are you implying exactly, that if behavior from a protected class is the source of a major social issue/catastrophe, that we need to avoid making that link, and allow this class to continue engaging in antisocial practices, because we are worried about stigma? That doesn't seem like a sane ordering of priorities.
lwhi 4y ago
Now this is totally unfounded, and verging on the nutty conspiracy theory side of life .. so please do feel free to cut me down; but is there a possibility that this type of unusual virus / unusual pattern of transition, could be part of a larger terrorist type plot? The western world is currently at loggerheads with Russia. Russia has a track record of subterfuge (e.g. Salisbury poisoning in the UK). Feels like the gay community have been the most affected, which seems odd to me. The Russian government definitely doesn't hold much love for the LGBT community. Many of the people who have become symptomatic haven't been able to be traced to other people who've been similarly infected. Am I nuts for thinking along these lines?
- cpr 4y ago
- newsclues 4y ago
  Or a globalist conspiracy to distract and divide people, while allowing more power to be centralized? Are there mid terms this year?
- danenania 4y ago
  In our globalized world, everyone suffers in a pandemic. This kind of attack would be as likely to devastate the attacker as their opponents, so there's really no motivation for a government to carry out attacks like this. It's another form of MAD deterrence. If it was possible to target people with specific genetics, it might be a slightly more realistic scenario. But considering that viruses regularly evolve enough to jump between species, it could still easily evolve to hurt the 'favored' population group as much as 'enemy' groups. On that note, if there's any silver lining at all to pandemics, they really do align the interests of all humans like no other threat/problem, save perhaps for some sci-fi scenarios like an impending asteroid impact or alien invasion. When it comes to viruses, we're all in the same boat.
  - capitainenemo 4y ago
    But putting further stress on the countries opposing might help a cut-off Russia in the short term... I mean they already have virtually no travel across their borders, and what happens in next few months is probably of greater urgency to them than later.
cma 4y ago
Apparently the initial wide spread may be due to sexual transmission at two raves: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/monkeypox-likely-spread-sex-two-raves-europe-expert-says-rcna30055 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/monkeypox-likely-...
mhb 4y ago
The virus is spread through close contact with people, animals or material infected with the virus. It enters the body through broken skin, the respiratory tract, the eyes, nose and mouth. Though human-to-human transmission is believed to occur through respiratory droplets as well, that method requires prolonged face-to-face contact because the droplets cannot travel more than a few feet, according to the CDC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primar...
cosmiccatnap 4y ago
Typo in the first sentence of an article is never a good sign.
- loopdoend 4y ago
  Too bad it’s your first exposure to this publication/author.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
wonderwonder 4y ago
I think it's a big deal because viruses get clicks now in the age of covid. The articles often include graphic images to drive engagement. It's a hard to spread virus that currently appears to be concentrated in men engaging in homosexual intercourse. No one has died and they respond well to the existing smallpox vaccine. It's currently media driven and nothing to worry about. That could change but currently nothing to do.
- basisword 4y ago
  >> I think it's a big deal because viruses get clicks now in the age of covid. SARS, MERS, bird flu. These were all big news too. >> It's a hard to spread virus that currently appears to be concentrated in men engaging in homosexual intercourse. Do these people not matter? Also, have you forgotten HIV? Really struggling to find your point here.
  - wonderwonder 4y ago
    Sars, mers, etc. were airborne, monkey pox is not. Monkey pox has hit the US before in 2003, not much media hysteria. I am saying that in the age of covid , viral infections generate clicks. I have not forgotten about hiv, this is not hiv. It's an easily cured, well understood virus with an existing effective vaccine. The point was that with the current method of spread already understood and identified as requiring direct intentional contact that this is not a virus we should all be panicking and isolating over.
kkfx 4y ago
Smallpox was an issue, and since we can't really be sure it's eradicated it's still an issue and one of the very few potentially dangerous vaccines worth risking in the childhood, instead of many other risky, useless at best, normally only dangerous but economically interested from the criminals against humanity commonly known as "Big Pharma" and their "public" branches like WHO. So it MIGHT BE true and MIGHT BE a certain danger. However since the n-th commercial pandemic declarations such aforementioned criminal institutions have ZERO credibility, so until their heads got arrested and sentenced to life imprisonment along with their subjects fellow politicians and private top investors NOTHING they say can be credible. So my dear real* scientist you have a social duty: asking for IMMEDIATE incarceration of such criminals for the sake of Democracy and humanity in general. If you keep silent for profit and tranquility beside being held accountable in the not too near future in court for fairness with them you'll probably concur to a such big genocide that nazi crimes will be remembered as a small event in human history. NO, I'm not joking.
ajmarsh 4y ago
From CDC.gov TLDR: Yes the Smallpox vaccine is effective against Monkeypox but it's not generally available. https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/treatment.html https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/treatment....
bitfhacker 4y ago
I think that the world in entering in a mass hysteria mode with virus, pox, flu cow, influenza A, B, C, D etc. Please... start to live more. I see people that are afraid to "go outside" and have a coffee with a friend or that won't go lunch because its afraid to have *put a disease in here**"...
lizardactivist 4y ago
Will there be a new mass-vaccination and contact-tracing on our phones? Will Astra Zeneca's large vaccine factory suddenly burst into flames when they are about to begin production? Will the lion's share of contracts then go to U.S. Big Pharma? Will their prices conveniently go up by 20% the year after? Will we discover once again that Moderna patented specific genetic sequences of this virus a whole year before it was even spoken of in the news? Let's see if there's a repeat of events, and if we can learn something this time around.
- yupper32 4y ago
  > Will the lion's share of contracts then go to U.S. Big Pharma? What is this comment supposed to mean? Do you want the contracts to go to the small mom-and-pop pharma companies? Monkeypox, if it becomes a real big problem, will likely be very different than Covid-19. I think if we learn anything its that we should let the experts do their job and just listen to their advice, and not automatically think that everything we learned from Covid-19 will transfer over. It's pretty straightforward to do that, but we haven't even mastered that yet.
  - lizardactivist 4y ago
    Read the line above, and put one and one together.
    - yupper32 4y ago
      What's your point? Smaller companies have a better chance of success? Why would that be?
- sto_hristo 4y ago
  Will you tell about the aliens and 5G again?
- Izkata 4y ago
  Here's one that's already making the rounds - Wuhan Institute of Virology was experimenting with constructing monkeypox virus last year: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995820X22000414 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995820X2... Meanwhile apparently on Chinese social media the claim is that the US released it intentionally: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10845749/Conspiracy-theories-swirl-China-monkeypox-deliberately-leaked-US.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10845749/Conspiracy... Aaaand their basis for that is remarkably similar to Event 201, a simulation about a coronavirus pandemic that happened in 2019, that originated in bats ( https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.ht... ).
retrac 4y ago
I'm starting to wonder if monkeypox was always a real threat for wide spread in principle, but it never did because the global population was, coincidentally, largely immune to it because of widespread smallpox vaccination. A paper from 2010 suggests that the outbreaks in Nigeria started around the time when herd immunity from the last smallpox vaccination campaigns in the area (1980s) would be substantially fading, with the majority of the population not immunized, having been born after: > Factors associated with increased risk of infection included: living in forested areas, male gender, age < 15, and no prior smallpox vaccination. Vaccinated persons had a 5.2-fold lower risk of monkeypox than unvaccinated persons (0.78 vs. 4.05 per 10,000). Comparison of active surveillance data in the same health zone from the 1980s (0.72 per 10,000) and 2006–07 (14.42 per 10,000) suggests a 20-fold increase in human monkeypox incidence. > [...] > More than 90% of cases identified in our surveillance program were born after mass smallpox vaccination campaigns officially ceased, and less than 4% of infected individuals had evidence of previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, our data suggest that vaccine-induced immunity is long lasting because individuals who were vaccinated against smallpox over 25 y ago still appear to be at significantly reduced risk of monkeypox. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1005769107 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1005769107
Centigonal 4y ago
I'm seeing a lot of conspiratorial thinking on Twitter and elsewhere where people think it's just too suspicious that a new virus has popped up so soon after COVID-19. If you're harboring these suspicions, it might be worth reading a little about the Poisson Distribution[1] and Frequency Illusion[2]. Because the appearance of an emerging disease isn't generally correlated to the appearance of another, different disease (big assumption here), there is no guarantee of even spacing. Furthermore, we've had over 30 emerging infection diseases pop up in the last 30 years[3]. They're much more likely to receive increased attention now however, due to heightened worldwide awareness of infectious disease from COVID-19. I'm not saying that there's definitely no conspiracy, but Occam's Razor says cognitive bias is a much more likely explanation for why monkeypox seems so oddly-timed than Bill Gates's secret world domination plan. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618832/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618832/
timst4 4y ago
You should be FAR more worried about PFAS, micro plastics, environmental estrogens, and their links to cancer. However, DuPont, Dow, 3M, and BASF are very skilled at giving their poisons very innocuous names. Maybe viruses would be wise to have in-house PR teams as well…
benrapscallion 4y ago
Expert: Monkeypox likely spread by sex at 2 raves in Europe [1] https://apnews.com/article/health-world-organization-united-nations-animals-72a9efaaf5b55ace396398b839847505 https://apnews.com/article/health-world-organization-united-...

118 points by _Microft 4y ago

Appropriately, 2022 is the Year of the Monkey.

WHO is meeting this week to vote on amendments to international health regulations, https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-far-reaching-us-proposals-to-amend-the-international-health-regulations-at-the-upcoming-75th-world-health-assembly-a-call-for-attention/ https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-far-reaching-us-proposals-to-am... > proposed US amendments to Article 12 IHR will both considerably extend the executive powers of the WHO Director-General to declare global emergency-like situations and centralise this power further by removing the need to consult and find agreement with the respective state party ... Articles 9 and 10 IHR moreover strengthen WHO’s powers to assess alleged global health risks by relying on information received outside official channels, giving the respective states only 24 hours to verify such information. > ... if WHO’s powers are extended in this way, is there a need to also answer the question quis custodiet ipsos custodes (who guards the guards?), and to thus set up mechanisms ensuring that WHO complies with its obligations under the IHR and its Constitution, as well as its responsibilities for human rights deriving from customary international human rights law? WHO's Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) site has videos from their April 2022 meeting: https://inb.who.int https://inb.who.int

no-dr-onboard 4y ago
> and centralise this power further by removing the need to consult and find agreement with the respective state party This is discomforting. Genuinely curious how anyone would see this as anything more than a power grab.
- WalterGR 4y ago
  Is it intended to remove politics from science?
  - at-fates-hands 4y ago
    By replacing it with unilateral power? Yeah, what could go wrong with that?
    - nix23 4y ago
      1984 but instead of televisions with pee-bottles and blood-tests ;))
- fragsworth 4y ago
  The WHO is not really "powerful" like a nation is, as they do not have a military or enforcement arm, and they do not pass laws. All they can do is decide how their funds get spent. They are granted all these "powers" to spend their funds by the participating states. Furthermore, they are restricted to spending it on things that promote world health. The worst they can do is squander the money, which isn't even all that much. Compare this to people like Jeff Bezos who have vastly more money, 100% centralized, and effectively no restrictions on how they spend it. Whether you should be concerned about that is up for argument, but by contrast, any concerns about the WHO are pretty absurd.
  - no-dr-onboard 4y ago
    > The WHO is not really "powerful" like a nation is, as they do not have a military or enforcement arm, and they do not pass laws. True, but a majority of policy makers and talking heads (that influence and approve laws) carry out their deeds under the guise of "Well, the WHO says so". Consider how frequently the "appeal to authority" tactic was used during the pandemic. This isn't entirely without consequence.
    - runarberg 4y ago
      But still consider the relativity here. The risk of a malicious WHO is insignificant next to the risk of rich industrialists like Jeff Bezos. Very wealthy and powerful entities like Jeff Bezos do lobby and influence governments and media on a totally different scale then international organizations such as WHO. And more often then not these industrialists do succeed in bending policy to their favor at the cost of everyone else. Maybe this isn’t without consequence, but relatively speaking the risk of negative consequences are next to nothing.
TimTheTinker 4y ago
> centralise this power That's the part I take issue with. Any time power becomes centralized (including during emergency situations) it leads to loss of individual freedoms, and often increased anthropogenic (=human-caused) suffering.
- new_stranger 4y ago
  If you were wealthier you would understand the importance of centralized power /s
  - TimTheTinker 4y ago
    There's a big difference between centralized power and coordinated action facilitated by wise leadership. The latter does not require the former, contrary to what some people might say -- those who wish to hold unfettered power, or those who wish to be ruled over by one holding such power.
    - new_stranger 4y ago
      The issue is you and I know this, but they don't
  - slickrick216 4y ago
    Or the opposite.
  - maxbond 4y ago
    ETA: I made this comment before the author clarified they were being sarcastic. I'd propose that if you made more of an effort to be empathetic with people who lack access to wealth and privilege, you'd understand better the criticisms of centralizing power and power structures in general. "You don't understand because you can't see my perspective" goes any which way, and so is not an argument. If their are artifacts of your perspective that we need to form a full and coherent view - then share them with us. If you're just looking to be patronizing and dismissive because you only value a certain perspective - then please reconsider.
leemelone 4y ago
codefreeordie 4y ago
- taylorius 4y ago
  - codefreeordie 4y ago
    or whatever they decide to push next when people stop being afraid of this one
    - taylorius 4y ago
      Take a look at what "simulations" the usual globalist suspects are running at their conferences. Both Covid and Monkeypox were the subject of such simulations in the years before they emerged as "OMG we're so ill prepared" pandemics.
    - Datagenerator 4y ago
      View the report here: https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO...
      - codefreeordie 4y ago
        That report presents clearly the reasons why entities like the CDC must be eliminated. They declare the need for the ability to have a single unaccountable bureaucrat with the ability to permanently lock down the entire planet or to take any other freedom-destroying action on a "no regrets" basis. At the first sign of a "threat", real or imagined, it's purge the commoners and don't ask questions later. They have demonstrated that it is unsafe for freedom to have such entities.
- outworlder 4y ago
  > And what do you know, just in time for them to gain unopposable, unaccountable ability to lock down the entire world whenever they want Who benefits from 'lockdowns'? The economy slows down, workers stop working and lining up powerful people's pockets. Tourism plummets, supply chains gets disrupted. It's not profitable. Even a war brings profits. Lockdowns don't. Mind you, most countries didn't experience any lockdowns at all. Not every organization is conspiring against you. If anything, the media was regularly pushing to reopen business even as hospitals struggle.
thedrbrian 4y ago
Fascinating look at their new proposal https://twitter.com/criticalsway/status/1526464386386345984 https://twitter.com/criticalsway/status/1526464386386345984 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526464386386345984.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526464386386345984.html
- walterbell 4y ago
  Thanks for posting this plain-english summary.
adrianmonk 4y ago
> WHO is meeting this week This seems off topic. The article is about monkeypox. The WHO meeting is about regulations. Yes, they are both public health issues, but that's about as close of a connection as there is.

qwerty456127 4y ago

I have always felt angry they stopped smallpox vaccination before I was born. Now all the boomers are immune and we are not.

seaman1921 4y ago
- jonplackett 4y ago
  [flagged]
nix23 4y ago
Why not just get your smallpox vaccination? Hint it's 35 swiss franks. ...when you visit Switzerland (in the tropical institute) ;)
- dthul 4y ago
  afaik no smallpox vaccine is currently approved in Switzerland (according to https://www.nau.ch/politik/bundeshaus/affenpocken-swissmedic-hat-impfstoff-nicht-zugelassen-66183103 https://www.nau.ch/politik/bundeshaus/affenpocken-swissmedic...)
  - nix23 4y ago
    Why do you link a monkeypox article? That is smallpox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox And that's the vaccine in 1980: https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co148656/smallpox-vaccine-berne-switzerland-1980-vaccine-smallpox https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co14865... Your article means that the smallpox vaccine is not approved for monkeypox...please read at least your article. https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/krankheiten-im-ueberblick/variola.html https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/krankheiten... >>Unser Land verfügt zudem über einen Notfallplan (Isolierung der Erkrankten, Quarantäne, Impfung exponierter Personen und Dekontamination von Gegenständen) sowie über eine genügende Menge eines Pockenimpfstoffes der 1. Generation, der für die Impfung einzelner Bevölkerungsgruppen bis hin zur Gesamtbevölkerung ausreicht. Zudem werden derzeit antivirale Medikamente entwickelt. >>Our country also has an emergency plan (isolation of the sick, quarantine, vaccination of exposed persons and decontamination of objects) and a sufficient quantity of a 1st generation smallpox vaccine for vaccination of individual population groups up to the entire population. In addition, antiviral drugs are currently being developed.

david_l_lin 4y ago

The rise of zoonotic infections should not be surprising at all given the rate of deforestation and general disregard for nature.

DerArzt 4y ago
Yeah, but monkeypox isn't a new one. It's been around since the 70's.
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
We were averaging a potential pandemic every 3 or so years for the last ~20 years. Original SARS, Bird Flu part 1, MERS, Swine Flu (arguably an actual pandemic), Bird Flu part 2, Covid. No one should be surprised that there's a new possible pandemic 3 years after Covid. If this ends up being another actual pandemic - that would be surprising.
- johndfsgdgdfg 4y ago
husainfazel 4y ago
Add gain of function / deliberate bio-terrorism in there as well. Feb 1992 - a Soviet defector revealed to Western intelligence that he had overseen an extensive, illegal programme to develop smallpox into a highly effective biological weapon: > Ken Alibek believes that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, unemployed or badly-paid scientists are likely to have sold samples of smallpox clandestinely and gone to work in rogue states engaged in illicit biological weapons development. https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/pox_weapon_01.shtml https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/pox_weapon_0... June 1998 - The WHO recommends that all smallpox samples should be destroyed https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199808203390811 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199808203390811 Feb 2002 - WHO says that Russia and US can keep their smallpox samples https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/02/wide-range-smallpox-research-efforts-cited-who-decision-retain-virus-stocks https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/02/wide-ran... Nov 2002 - CIA claims that Russia, France, Iraq and North Korea have "secret" stashes of small pox (erm you already know Russia has them, that's not a secret) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/11/cia-believes-four-nations-have-secret-smallpox-virus-stocks-report-says https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/11/cia-beli... Sep 2019 - Explosion and fire break out at Russian lab known for housing deadly smallpox virus https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/health/russia-lab-explosion-smallpox-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/health/russia-lab-explosion-s... https://www.livescience.com/russia-lab-stores-smallpox-explosion-fire.html https://www.livescience.com/russia-lab-stores-smallpox-explo...

historia_novae 4y ago

>"No one died in the 2003 outbreak" Yet we will be stripped of our rights again for the exclusive benefits of a fews mega-corps and the "news" reportings are preparing the ground for it. At least this time I'll have some money to invest in the company producing the vaccine.

Vecr 4y ago
Look up "ACAM2000" and "JYNNEOS", those are the candidate vaccines for widespread use in the US.

RspecMAuthortah 4y ago

I had smallpox growing up in a third world country, how protective would the immunity be going against that?

jonny_eh 4y ago
Apparently the smallpox vaccine protects against monkeypox, I imagine recovering from one would protect against the other.
- mmastrac 4y ago
  Not total but some protection. The last article I read suggested a fully vaxxed person still had a couple of lesions (how it was detected). Definitely better than a full blown attack.
etiam 4y ago
As Lowe notes in the blog piece, statements of about 85% protection from the smallpox vaccine are going around. I haven't seen anything in particular about the protection resulting from a full-blown, non-attenuated infection, but as I understand it from discussions apropos another pathogen of fame lately, the rule of thumb is more comprehensive and lasting immunity from going through the disease as compared to vaccinations. That is, I believe you ought to be in great shape compared to most of the world population. What was it like? If it can be meaningfully described...
retrac 4y ago
Big caveat: we don't actually know, because it hasn't been studied, because human monkeypox is very rare. Still, some conjecture: You're very probably immune. Recovery from smallpox almost always meant life-long immunity and re-infection was basically unknown when it was common. The orthopoxviruses are known to have a lot of cross-immunity. People who get cowpox are immune to smallpox, and vice versa. The classic smallpox vaccine used widely in the 20th century was just a very mild strain of pox (genetically somewhere between smallpox and cowpox, and of uncertain origin now lost to history) which causes almost no illness in humans.

rogerallen 4y ago

"another less in [sic] real-time virology" A typo in the first sentence? In Science? Wow...

frogpelt 4y ago
Yes, but it's a blog.
_Microft 4y ago
"In the pipeline" is a blog by Mr. Lowe and was only recently moved to the science.org domain (it could be found at blogs.sciencemag.org before). I wouldn't expect his articles to be proof-read by anyone else but himself to be honest.
- etiam 4y ago
  Since Science Magazine was also at sciencemag.org until recently, I don't really see that the move indicates anything about change in the relation between it and "In the Pipeline". I pretty much agree about the proof-reading though.
  - _Microft 4y ago
    Was it? I didn't remember that. Thanks for the correction.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
WalterGR 4y ago
Looks like speech-to-text gone bad. I'd call it an editing error.
SoftTalker 4y ago
Yeah, I saw that too, and thought he probably uses a speech-to-text approach to drafting his articles. That seems like the sort of mistake speech recognition would make. But it could also be auto-correct or even a real typo.

rsweeney21 4y ago

tldr: "Overall, I would say that this is in the don't-panic-but-keep-a-close-eye-on category."

latchkey 4y ago

"The scenario (from march 2021) simulates a monkeypox outbreak in starting in 'brinia' on 15 May 2022 that was an engineered strain for vaccine resistance." https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO... It's some coincidence there is an actual outbreak in May 2022 in Britain.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
therein 4y ago
Kinda funny that you are being downvoted. Even the date was spot on. But you're getting the downvotes from the "oh they do these things all the time" crowd.
- latchkey 4y ago
  The same post got 12 upvotes so I'll call it even... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31455056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31455056 HN works in mysterious ways, so I just upvoted you. =)
throwaway821909 4y ago
"the outbreak takes place during a national holiday with extensive domestic and international travel by Brinians" "population 250 million" Doesn't sound like Britain at the moment

bigmattystyles 4y ago

If not for our COVID-19 reflexive memory would this still be a huge story or does it just get hits? I'm genuinely asking, it's good to be informed and help out those afflicted but is this just an easy way to get eyeballs? (I just realize I may sound like a kook saying `it's the media` but I'm genuinely curious)

k__ 4y ago
Probably. As far as I know, they aren't air transmittable, so I don't see the problem.
- maxerickson 4y ago
  It can spread by droplets (lesions do develop in the mouth).
DANK_YACHT 4y ago
SARS, MERS, and Swineflu all garnered attention at the time. An outbreak of a new disease is interesting, regardless of what happened the last 2+ years.
- AnonCoward4 4y ago
  It's noteworthy for sure, however I am more annoyed by how it is reported. It was always like that for sure, however when the same medium proclaims being the arbiter of truth (fact checkers) I get really disgusted.
flavius29663 4y ago
Probably not, there have been countless outbreaks and epidemics in the past, all got some attention and media scare. But we haven't had a pandemic since 1920s, so I would bet on the 99.9% chance of it being just a media scare, rather than a new pandemic.
- chaosite 4y ago
  You mean, haven't had a pandemic since 2020?

brodouevencode 4y ago

Transmission information according to the CDC: Transmission of monkeypox virus occurs when a person comes into contact with the virus from an animal, human, or materials contaminated with the virus. The virus enters the body through broken skin (even if not visible), respiratory tract, or the mucous membranes (eyes, nose, or mouth). Animal-to-human transmission may occur by bite or scratch, bush meat preparation, direct contact with body fluids or lesion material, or indirect contact with lesion material, such as through contaminated bedding. Human-to-human transmission is thought to occur primarily through large respiratory droplets. Respiratory droplets generally cannot travel more than a few feet, so prolonged face-to-face contact is required. Other human-to-human methods of transmission include direct contact with body fluids or lesion material, and indirect contact with lesion material, such as through contaminated clothing or linens. https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html

bufferoverflow 4y ago
So basically you either have to cough into someone's face, or kiss them, or get bitten, or have sex with them to transmit the virus. Stop worrying. This isn't another coronavirus-level pandemic.
- GekkePrutser 4y ago
  Not to mention most of the identified infections were sex-related, making it even less of an issue. Most people aren't promiscuous so it will be very difficult to spread far that way. There's other transmission routes of course but they seem to be much less potent.
- tonyg 4y ago
  FTA: "people are poring over the data right now and comparing it to "classic" monkeypox sequences to see if this a new variant, perhaps with enhanced transmissibility. So far there are no glaring signs of that, but this work is very much ongoing; it's just too early to draw any conclusions."
- at-fates-hands 4y ago

baggy_trough 4y ago

I have read that the outbreak is concentrated in gay men via sexual transmission. The article doesn't say anything about that, which I would say is par for the course for public health communication, if this is indeed the case.

andrewclunn 4y ago
[flagged]
- cardiffspaceman 4y ago
  I'm not sure what you're saying agrees with the fact that people informally called AIDS "gay cancer" before it had an official name that was a little memorable.
- macintux 4y ago
  I remember when AIDS was spreading and it was described as “gay cancer” and mostly ignored by the U.S. administration because of that.
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    Just found this: > New York Times headline: "Rare cancer seen in 41 homosexuals” http://www.nytimes.com/1981/07/03/us/rare-cancer-seen-in-41-homosexuals.html http://www.nytimes.com/1981/07/03/us/rare-cancer-seen-in-41-...
- Supermancho 4y ago
  I remember. Homosexuality was still largely taboo and sex was definitely not something mentioned on the news, until some tipping point where it became normalized. People tend to remember the after, not the before for this specific transition.
- m0a0t0 4y ago
  Here's Reagan's press secretary laughing and joking about "the gay plague" when only a few hundred had died, you homophobic ghoul https://www.vox.com/2015/12/1/9828348/ronald-reagan-hiv-aids https://www.vox.com/2015/12/1/9828348/ronald-reagan-hiv-aids

karaterobot 4y ago

To summarize the linked blog post (emphasis because this is not a news article, an urgent bulletin, or a report on research findings): Cases of Monkeypox have been popping up around the world. Monkeypox is not a new disease, is "not particulary contagious", and is rarely fatal. The provocative thing is that numerous cases are popping up at the same time in different parts of the world.

h2odragon 4y ago
Its a blog post from an author with a long history of effectively communicating complex things without extra hype and with entertainment value. Don't miss the "things I wont work with" posts.

tikkun 4y ago

This virus is a great place for effective altruism biosecurity projects to focus. By building up expertise solving real challenges, we'll be in a better spot with future pandemics. Anti-fragility by figuring out small challenges so we're better prepared for the big ones.

_Microft 4y ago
You might be happy to learn about CEPI [0][1], the "Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations". They have the goal to ship vaccines 100 days [2] after outbreak of a pandemic by doing a lot of the research and testing in advance. They plan to create "templates" for vaccines for two dozen different viruses that pose a risk of causing a pandemic and test these in advance for safety and dosage, so that they only need to be slightly tweaked for an actual pandemic. [0] https://cepi.net/ https://cepi.net/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Preparedness_Innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Prepare... [2] https://100days.cepi.net/100-days/ https://100days.cepi.net/100-days/

paywallasinbeer 4y ago

Interesting context: WHO officials said: "the most recent surge in cases appears to have been spread among men who have sex with other men" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primar...

truthwhisperer 4y ago
twofornone 4y ago
- m0a0t0 4y ago
  >It was the same with the aids epidemic, the gay community ignored/denied/downplayed the demographic localization of HIV but the truth was that at it's height if you were not a gay male the epidemic was effectively irrelevant to your life. There are a hell of a lot of people - and a hell of a lot of people who have sadly died - who would be very surprised to hear this. It's a pretty accepted view by those that study the AIDS epidemic that calling it a gay plague caused massive problems for people who weren't gay and contracted HIV. Singling out gay men for what you have decided are immoral behaviours is exactly why there is a stigma around HIV and why people continue to fail to seek treatment.
  - adnzzzzZ 4y ago
    This is so true. What really terrifies me is if this new monkeypox became more easily transmissible and killed millions of people. Imagine the backlash against homosexuals?
    - twofornone 4y ago
      ...imagine the millions of dead people? What are you implying exactly, that if behavior from a protected class is the source of a major social issue/catastrophe, that we need to avoid making that link, and allow this class to continue engaging in antisocial practices, because we are worried about stigma? That doesn't seem like a sane ordering of priorities.

lwhi 4y ago

Now this is totally unfounded, and verging on the nutty conspiracy theory side of life .. so please do feel free to cut me down; but is there a possibility that this type of unusual virus / unusual pattern of transition, could be part of a larger terrorist type plot? The western world is currently at loggerheads with Russia. Russia has a track record of subterfuge (e.g. Salisbury poisoning in the UK). Feels like the gay community have been the most affected, which seems odd to me. The Russian government definitely doesn't hold much love for the LGBT community. Many of the people who have become symptomatic haven't been able to be traced to other people who've been similarly infected. Am I nuts for thinking along these lines?

cpr 4y ago
newsclues 4y ago
Or a globalist conspiracy to distract and divide people, while allowing more power to be centralized? Are there mid terms this year?
danenania 4y ago
In our globalized world, everyone suffers in a pandemic. This kind of attack would be as likely to devastate the attacker as their opponents, so there's really no motivation for a government to carry out attacks like this. It's another form of MAD deterrence. If it was possible to target people with specific genetics, it might be a slightly more realistic scenario. But considering that viruses regularly evolve enough to jump between species, it could still easily evolve to hurt the 'favored' population group as much as 'enemy' groups. On that note, if there's any silver lining at all to pandemics, they really do align the interests of all humans like no other threat/problem, save perhaps for some sci-fi scenarios like an impending asteroid impact or alien invasion. When it comes to viruses, we're all in the same boat.
- capitainenemo 4y ago
  But putting further stress on the countries opposing might help a cut-off Russia in the short term... I mean they already have virtually no travel across their borders, and what happens in next few months is probably of greater urgency to them than later.

cma 4y ago

Apparently the initial wide spread may be due to sexual transmission at two raves: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/monkeypox-likely-spread-sex-two-raves-europe-expert-says-rcna30055 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/monkeypox-likely-...

mhb 4y ago

The virus is spread through close contact with people, animals or material infected with the virus. It enters the body through broken skin, the respiratory tract, the eyes, nose and mouth. Though human-to-human transmission is believed to occur through respiratory droplets as well, that method requires prolonged face-to-face contact because the droplets cannot travel more than a few feet, according to the CDC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primarily-spreading-through-sex-who-officials-say.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/monkeypox-outbreak-is-primar...

cosmiccatnap 4y ago

Typo in the first sentence of an article is never a good sign.

loopdoend 4y ago
Too bad it’s your first exposure to this publication/author.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

wonderwonder 4y ago

I think it's a big deal because viruses get clicks now in the age of covid. The articles often include graphic images to drive engagement. It's a hard to spread virus that currently appears to be concentrated in men engaging in homosexual intercourse. No one has died and they respond well to the existing smallpox vaccine. It's currently media driven and nothing to worry about. That could change but currently nothing to do.

basisword 4y ago
>> I think it's a big deal because viruses get clicks now in the age of covid. SARS, MERS, bird flu. These were all big news too. >> It's a hard to spread virus that currently appears to be concentrated in men engaging in homosexual intercourse. Do these people not matter? Also, have you forgotten HIV? Really struggling to find your point here.
- wonderwonder 4y ago
  Sars, mers, etc. were airborne, monkey pox is not. Monkey pox has hit the US before in 2003, not much media hysteria. I am saying that in the age of covid , viral infections generate clicks. I have not forgotten about hiv, this is not hiv. It's an easily cured, well understood virus with an existing effective vaccine. The point was that with the current method of spread already understood and identified as requiring direct intentional contact that this is not a virus we should all be panicking and isolating over.

kkfx 4y ago

Smallpox was an issue, and since we can't really be sure it's eradicated it's still an issue and one of the very few potentially dangerous vaccines worth risking in the childhood, instead of many other risky, useless at best, normally only dangerous but economically interested from the criminals against humanity commonly known as "Big Pharma" and their "public" branches like WHO. So it MIGHT BE true and MIGHT BE a certain danger. However since the n-th commercial pandemic declarations such aforementioned criminal institutions have ZERO credibility, so until their heads got arrested and sentenced to life imprisonment along with their subjects fellow politicians and private top investors NOTHING they say can be credible. So my dear real* scientist you have a social duty: asking for IMMEDIATE incarceration of such criminals for the sake of Democracy and humanity in general. If you keep silent for profit and tranquility beside being held accountable in the not too near future in court for fairness with them you'll probably concur to a such big genocide that nazi crimes will be remembered as a small event in human history. NO, I'm not joking.

ajmarsh 4y ago

From CDC.gov TLDR: Yes the Smallpox vaccine is effective against Monkeypox but it's not generally available. https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/treatment.html https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/treatment....

bitfhacker 4y ago

I think that the world in entering in a mass hysteria mode with virus, pox, flu cow, influenza A, B, C, D etc. Please... start to live more. I see people that are afraid to "go outside" and have a coffee with a friend or that won't go lunch because its afraid to have *put a disease in here**"...

lizardactivist 4y ago

Will there be a new mass-vaccination and contact-tracing on our phones? Will Astra Zeneca's large vaccine factory suddenly burst into flames when they are about to begin production? Will the lion's share of contracts then go to U.S. Big Pharma? Will their prices conveniently go up by 20% the year after? Will we discover once again that Moderna patented specific genetic sequences of this virus a whole year before it was even spoken of in the news? Let's see if there's a repeat of events, and if we can learn something this time around.

yupper32 4y ago
> Will the lion's share of contracts then go to U.S. Big Pharma? What is this comment supposed to mean? Do you want the contracts to go to the small mom-and-pop pharma companies? Monkeypox, if it becomes a real big problem, will likely be very different than Covid-19. I think if we learn anything its that we should let the experts do their job and just listen to their advice, and not automatically think that everything we learned from Covid-19 will transfer over. It's pretty straightforward to do that, but we haven't even mastered that yet.
- lizardactivist 4y ago
  Read the line above, and put one and one together.
  - yupper32 4y ago
    What's your point? Smaller companies have a better chance of success? Why would that be?
sto_hristo 4y ago
Will you tell about the aliens and 5G again?
Izkata 4y ago
Here's one that's already making the rounds - Wuhan Institute of Virology was experimenting with constructing monkeypox virus last year: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995820X22000414 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995820X2... Meanwhile apparently on Chinese social media the claim is that the US released it intentionally: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10845749/Conspiracy-theories-swirl-China-monkeypox-deliberately-leaked-US.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10845749/Conspiracy... Aaaand their basis for that is remarkably similar to Event 201, a simulation about a coronavirus pandemic that happened in 2019, that originated in bats ( https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.ht... ).

retrac 4y ago

I'm starting to wonder if monkeypox was always a real threat for wide spread in principle, but it never did because the global population was, coincidentally, largely immune to it because of widespread smallpox vaccination. A paper from 2010 suggests that the outbreaks in Nigeria started around the time when herd immunity from the last smallpox vaccination campaigns in the area (1980s) would be substantially fading, with the majority of the population not immunized, having been born after: > Factors associated with increased risk of infection included: living in forested areas, male gender, age < 15, and no prior smallpox vaccination. Vaccinated persons had a 5.2-fold lower risk of monkeypox than unvaccinated persons (0.78 vs. 4.05 per 10,000). Comparison of active surveillance data in the same health zone from the 1980s (0.72 per 10,000) and 2006–07 (14.42 per 10,000) suggests a 20-fold increase in human monkeypox incidence. > [...] > More than 90% of cases identified in our surveillance program were born after mass smallpox vaccination campaigns officially ceased, and less than 4% of infected individuals had evidence of previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, our data suggest that vaccine-induced immunity is long lasting because individuals who were vaccinated against smallpox over 25 y ago still appear to be at significantly reduced risk of monkeypox. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1005769107 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1005769107

Centigonal 4y ago

I'm seeing a lot of conspiratorial thinking on Twitter and elsewhere where people think it's just too suspicious that a new virus has popped up so soon after COVID-19. If you're harboring these suspicions, it might be worth reading a little about the Poisson Distribution[1] and Frequency Illusion[2]. Because the appearance of an emerging disease isn't generally correlated to the appearance of another, different disease (big assumption here), there is no guarantee of even spacing. Furthermore, we've had over 30 emerging infection diseases pop up in the last 30 years[3]. They're much more likely to receive increased attention now however, due to heightened worldwide awareness of infectious disease from COVID-19. I'm not saying that there's definitely no conspiracy, but Occam's Razor says cognitive bias is a much more likely explanation for why monkeypox seems so oddly-timed than Bill Gates's secret world domination plan. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618832/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618832/

timst4 4y ago

You should be FAR more worried about PFAS, micro plastics, environmental estrogens, and their links to cancer. However, DuPont, Dow, 3M, and BASF are very skilled at giving their poisons very innocuous names. Maybe viruses would be wise to have in-house PR teams as well…

benrapscallion 4y ago

Expert: Monkeypox likely spread by sex at 2 raves in Europe [1] https://apnews.com/article/health-world-organization-united-nations-animals-72a9efaaf5b55ace396398b839847505 https://apnews.com/article/health-world-organization-united-...