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Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

314 points by user_named 5y ago

Over the past two years there's been smaller regional outbreaks here and there, but they were quickly contained. This current outbreak started about a month ago with cases slowly starting to tick up. About two weeks ago it became clear to me that we would soon be entering lockdown as the omicron cases won't stop increasing, imported as well as local. Last Friday there were about a 1000 new daily cases nationally, higher than at the peak in 2020. Since there is no clear change in policy, and already a lot is being done, there is no reason to believe that infections won't keep increasing exponentially. Today, Sunday, daily new cases reached 2000-3000. Schools, gym, parks, and most other public venues have closed. Education is being done online, and also adult education is shut down if it is offline. WFH is pretty much non-existant in China, even after 2020, but from next week we'll work from home as will many offices. When ordering on Meituan, some select goods are out of stock at some stores , like tomatoes, minced meat. Still, you can get it if you just search it from another store. My neighborhood seems perfectly normal and the supermarket has lots of stock though some beef is sold out. Several supermarkets on Meituan are closed but there's lots still open. I've got food for two months so no issues. Still, I see this as a good thing because: (1) Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized (2) A new policy will emerge as it is already clear that you can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous. In fact what I'm worried about is having to be in quarantine hospital or hotel, that's it. There are officials talking about ending the 0-policy but no clear solution yet. I expect this to last 3 months. Edit: I'm in Shanghai. Types of lockdown vary between cities and even districts and sub-districts. Here, you may get to stay at home for two days if you're a second degree contact; but if you didn't wear a mask it'll be 14 days. If you're a first degree contact it's quarantine hotel for 14. If you're infected I believe you go to a hospital. In Shenzhen, some communities that are under lockdown are not able to order groceries but only get the type of hotel/airplane food you get in quarantine. So I definitely want to have proper food, which is why I'll WFH for a long time, so as to not come into first or something cond degree contact.

senectus1 5y ago
china has been doing hard lockdowns for 2 years. just very very targeted very very HARD lockdowns.
- user_named 5y ago
  Yes. But that's different. The West we're doing national or citywide lockdowns which did not happen to the same extent here. Now, we will definitely see general citywide lockdowns soon. That's what's changed.
  - senectus1 5y ago
    I suspect the west did that differently because of : A) our political maps are very different to China's. B) Population density is a lot lower in the west than in China.
NullPrefix 5y ago
How is the vaccination situation in China?
- user_named 5y ago
  90%+ have had two shots. Probably more like 95-99%. You can get third shots now.
  - senectus1 5y ago
    yeah but the effectiveness of the sinovax is hardly reliable information imho
    - tjpnz 5y ago
      Annecdotal but I know a few families in the Philippines where some members got Pfizer and others got Sinovac. The Pfizer group did significantly better when the inevitable occurred (the situation last year was particularly horrific).
WaxedChewbacca 5y ago
gbraad 5y ago
Beijing isn't that bad yet, but no express mailing. The youngest can't go to kindergarten as a classmate had a close contact with a positive case. We all tested negative.
- user_named 5y ago
  It's not bad here yet either. Stuff is closed down but you can still take the subway. Theres probably a hundred communities shut down city wide but that's likely just a fraction of a percent of all communities. But, the number of cases do not stop increasing, so lockdown will certainly come in the next few weeks.
  - gbraad 5y ago
    Most likely, but even among districts the actions they take are different. Our old neighborhood (in Chaoyang) has benn closed multiple times. Here in Dongcheng we have only seen that in 2020 during February till April, though 'lockdown' and no classes had been till the new semester in September. We will see what happens. Anyways, best of luck. Stock up on food and work from home. Luckily for n our family we can easily.
mrintellectual 5y ago
I can sympathize with your situation. I was in an office building in Shanghai last November when it got locked down for 48 hours - nobody in or out. Everybody ended up ordering takeout, and the entire building had to be tested for COVID a total of four times. The most insane part is that they don't even let you take pictures of the lockdown (I almost got my phone confiscated by the police for taking pictures). Also, sleeping in an office chair is a lot harder than it looks.
- user_named 5y ago
  Exactly. This is another situation that everyone wants to avoid getting caught in. Like I mentioned, it is now about not getting hit with control measures rather than avoiding the actual disease. I should also mention that the situation is t actually "bad." I can leave my apartment and walk around, probably take the taxi anywhere in the city. But I think that will change over the next few weeks.
- synergyS 5y ago
  Omg pretty strict procedure, you had to remain in the office for 48 hours?
  - user_named 5y ago
    Yes, offices become quarantine sites if someone test positive.
    - oauea 5y ago
      Sounds like a good way to get everyone there infected.
      - Wowfunhappy 5y ago
        ...yes, that's how quarantines work? Everyone within the quarantine may get infected, but the virus won't spread to anyone outside.
jwong_ 5y ago
Zhejiang seems okay so far for now. Goods availability on Meituan still.
- user_named 5y ago
  We also have good availability overall, it's just that some places are closed and some are sold out of various goods so you have to order from several. Except tomatoes are gone almost everywhere, except some terrible varieties.
fbrncci 5y ago
I probably chose the wrong time to take time off, and travel to SEA for three weeks. Halfway expecting to land there and spend the next few months in lockdown. Wonder how HR will take it.
- user_named 5y ago
  If you can even get in. If you're in SEA I think you still can but you may want to hurry up.
  - fbrncci 5y ago
    Departing within 72 hours, loads of paperwork went into getting approved to get in. Everything seems to be opening up, but while most are calling for things to open up even further; authorities are pointing fingers again to the rising number of infections and the possibility of collapse of the health care systems. However, two weeks ago, all seemed absolutely fine.
- sfifs 5y ago
  South East Asia is pretty much opening up and treating Covid as endemic. You shouldn't have problems.
  - fbrncci 5y ago
    They were very much in line with opening up the past month, but the past few days calls are getting louder to do something about the rising number of infections; along with the strain on the health care systems.
    - thematrixturtle 5y ago
      "They"? It's a whole bunch of independent countries with very different COVID policies, but virtually all are moving towards opening up, not locking down.
      - 5y ago
dehrmann 5y ago
What did prevention measures look like in the months leading up to this? It seemed like aggressive policies were enough up until delta, but omicron is just too contagious.
- user_named 5y ago
  Basically the same as now. People coming in from abroad quarantine for 14 days. Whenever there's a case, they trace and test everyone they've been in contact with, and also the second degree contacts. For one case, they tested more than 10,000 people, off memory. You're exactly right. Even these measures do not work to contain omicron. The only thing that's changed over the past two years is that the new strain is so much more contagious.
anthropodie 5y ago
I am guessing this is because of omicron? It's not clear from the post.
- user_named 5y ago
  Yes, due to omicron.
- twiceaday 5y ago
  > two weeks ago it became clear to me that we would soon be entering lockdown as the omicron cases won't stop increasing
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- trash3 5y ago
  It's from the hybridized omicron
Thorentis 5y ago
Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.
- user_named 5y ago
  I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.
  - a-dub 5y ago
    i imagine that 0-covid is a point of pride for politicians and government officials. do you think there will be no issue in having the agility to completely reverse course?
    - user_named 5y ago
      I think the public will agree with softer measures a few months from now as it becomes clear that getting locked down is worse than getting this strain. There are already mentions in the media about this.
  - em500 5y ago
    Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination rates among the elderly is relatively low. Look at Hong Kong for a sobering example. They've never had any large outbreak during the entire pandemic until two months ago. Now they're averaging almost 200 Covid deaths per day, on a population of 7 million. Per capita this is worse than the peak of the Alpha and Delta waves in the US or UK. If a big outbreak like Hong Kong happens in China, they might be facing 50k+ deaths per day.
captainmuon 5y ago
But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long time until everything is back to normal. So far, the suppression policy seems to pay off for China.
- benjaminwootton 5y ago
  I imagine it’s been a pretty tough few years for the people there, and they still have to go through the full waves when their vaccines wane in effectiveness and the rest of the world gets back to normal. I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.
  - user_named 5y ago
    It's been perfectly fine except you haven't been able to leave the country and come back, except for some exceptions. I mean I know people who left for Christmas and came back but that's a lot of work and risking policy change while you're gone.
    - benjaminwootton 5y ago
      Do you still have to do social distancing, limiting numbers, limiting hospitality, QR checkins etc? Are people living in fear of Covid etc? I’m not saying it’s like that in China, but I would find it pretty hard to live like that plus no international travel to maintain zero Covid.
      - user_named 5y ago
        Social distancing has never been a big thing in China because we've had masks for two years. It's only when for example lining up for a covid test that there's been marked one meter distances you had to pay attention to. Only anti-mask backwards countries have promoted social distancing as a measure. You sometimes check in with qr, but most of the time you just show your green health code which is a qr too, and sign your name, phone number etc on a sheet at the restaurant or such that you enter. But for a long time now you haven't had to show your health code as there haven't been many cases.
benjaminwootton 5y ago
It’s amazing the costs China are willing to bear for this. Inevitably they will lose the war, and when they do it is a mild disease going into what I assume is a well vaccinated population. The UK has been hard at times in 2020 and 2021, but Covid feels like ancient history here now, as it should do.
- user_named 5y ago
  I think it's the opposite. Chinas economy was quickly back to normal in 2020 while other countries suffered. But it's going to be costly this time, for little return.
  - beebmam 5y ago
    It's such an absurd tradeoff for the Omicron variant, which is less deadly than the flu[1]. COVID isn't ever going away. China seems to be willing to pay a giant recurring cost, eternally, for an infection less harmful than the flu. Insane. 1. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1501773203261165570 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1501773203261165570
    - user_named 5y ago
      As I mentioned, policy will change after this as it becomes clear that it is not fit for omicron.
    - rikima_ 5y ago
      > It's such an absurd tradeoff for the Omicron variant, which is less deadly than the flu[1] Apparently the data is only applicable for England, which has already achieved herd immunity
    - goldname 5y ago
      Agreed. It's stupid. Feel bad for the people living their miserable lives there. First locked in school all day for 24/7 and now they're locked in because the government is scared
  - deleted 5y ago
elric 5y ago
Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).
- user_named 5y ago
  - elric 5y ago
    I don't necessarily disagree with that statement, but it'd be nice if you backed it up with some actual examples.
    - user_named 5y ago
      - CorrectHorseBat 5y ago
        Or were they one of the few countries not underreporting?
      - elric 5y ago
        > Did they not tell you that in Belgium? What's up with this pointless snarkiness? You're making it sound like the machinations of an evil propaganda machine, when in reality Belgium has been quite good at overreporting covid stats. Not sure which stats you're referring to as being "some of the worst in the world".
        user_named 5y ago
        You question the reporting in a country, I do the same and you get upset. Belgium has been among the top in every chart I've seen. I can't imagine those charts not having been reported on in Belgium.
samwillis 5y ago
I find this fascinating in comparison with the situation here in the UK where about 70% of the population are triple vaccinated. Omicron is everywhere, literally. Anecdotally I would say 80-90% of households with school aged kids have had Omicron since the beginning of January and it’s still doing the rounds. We now have no restrictions and even during the peak in Jan/Feb it was very very minimal. There will be no more restrictions here at all unless something drastic happens later in the year with a new variant.
- benjaminwootton 5y ago
  Omnicron in particular is so low impact that the response is primarily political, especially when you have vaccines and some pre existing immunity. Countries can choose to pretty much ignore it or go crazy over it as the politicians and Twitter demand. We just got bored of it in the UK and moved onto Boris’s parties and now Ukraine.
  - EGreg 5y ago
    Omicron could be the best thing that happened -- a mild, very infectious variant that gives everyone NATURAL herd immunity to the entire coronavirus family. Why are politicians so afraid of it?
    - JudasGoat 5y ago
      While I agree with your statement. If you look at the present condition of medical facilities in Hong Kong, and imagine that situation reaching 1.4 billion people in a relatively short time. Also these people unlike many Westerner's probably don't have anti bodies from previous Covid-19 infections.
    - edanm 5y ago
      Because a large number of people are dying.
    - didibus 5y ago
      I don't know about politicians, but I can tell you why I'm not rejoicing quite yet. Number 1: While it is milder, it will still kill a lot of people. Yes they're mostly elderly, or they are immunocompromised and have other health issues already, but for those people it still means premature death, and for their families and friends it's still a loss of a loved one. Number 2: Long Covid is still not understood. The prevalence, impact and cause is too nebulous. It can manifest itself 6 to 12 months after first infection, so there's not been data about Omicron for it yet, since we're only starting to approach some people recovering on the 6 month mark. There's conflicting predictions of it affecting 5% to 30% of everyone (all age) who gets COVID. And it looks like sometimes the effect are dehabilitating, where people can't even go to work. So while it's nice Omicron doesn't kill you, it isn't clear if it will make you unhealthy and suffer from chronic problems for the rest of your life, and possibly shorten your lifespan. We also don't know if the chances of long COVID exist each time you get Covid, so even if it were 5% but you get it year over year, and each year it's 5% chance, it might be a matter of time till we all have long COVID. Number 3: Healthcare capacity and supplies. Even though the percentages of cases that need medical care is smaller, if too many people get it at the same.time, the total number of people needing medical care could be quite large and breach the healthcare capacity. Number 4: Cost on the economy. When people say it's mild, it's often still like getting the flu, which means you're off work for 3 to 10 days. If everyone gets it once or twice a year, and if people get it all at the same time, it means supply chain issues, delayed business, it just puts pressure everywhere on the economy.
tootahe45 5y ago
> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized Why would this suddenly happen now considering it didn't happen anywhere over the past 2 years?
- user_named 5y ago
  Because we only had 2-3 months of lockdown before, after that it's been business as usual. But to contain omicron you need literally everyone to stay at home, and also more will need to as I think it will be impossible to not be a second degree contact a month from now.
EGreg 5y ago
Seriously, Omicron is so mild, why is everyone going on lockdown? This is finally how everyone can cheaply get herd immunity!
teruakohatu 5y ago
In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests. In an hour we have as many new cases as we had in total in the first two years of COVID. But life is going on as semi-normal, most people are being reasonably responsible. 96% of the 12 yr+ population is double vaccinated, and about 60% boosted. The government has ruled out more lockdowns. I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand, and would be just as well equipped to deal with a "first" wave in 2022.
- z3t111 5y ago
  "I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand" This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.
  - dehrmann 5y ago
    Hong Kong also had an issue with hesitancy because covid zero worked so well. Not sure if mainland China has the same issue.
- sva_ 5y ago
  > system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests When my social circle finally got COVID, the rapid tests didn't work at all for almost all of us. One friend even tested himself 15 times with them, and he definitely used it right. We used various RATs. PCR showed positive for Omicron though. I don't think those tests are as reliable as they're claimed to be. I would think hospital stats matter more than active cases though.
  - rubatuga 5y ago
    Switch to oropharyngeal swabbing technique, this worked much better for me.
- adastra22 5y ago
petesergeant 5y ago
> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital. This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor handling of the pandemic.
- thecleaner 5y ago
  Sorry but what's the source that mRNA boosters work against Omicron ? I thought it's more like the vaccines neutralize threat from the original 2-3 variants and Omicron isn't deadly in and of itself. Also maybe this is China specific paranoia since neighbouring India doesn't care much and they seem to be doing fine wrt Omicron.
- user_named 5y ago
  Good point. This is going to be tricky.
- refurb 5y ago
  Indeed. I’ve been somewhat amazed at how China has handled it as of late. I get the short-term goal - stop Covid from taking hold by isolating new outbreaks. They have the manpower and the organization to isolate entire cities, do mass testing and lockdown neighborhoods. But: 1. It’s pretty clear with Omnicron the higher infectivity is making that task harder and lockdowns longer 2. The lockdowns have real economic impact that you might be able to weather in the short-term AND while other countries are in the same bucket, but it’s not a long term solution. 3. What is their long-term goal? Maintain zero Covid forever? Impossible unless a highly effective vaccine that prevents transmission is invented. I have family in another authoritarian country that took a similar approach to China. It bit them in the ass when the outbreaks were bigger than they could handle so then it became massive vaccination (by coming hat in hand to the companies/countries that they had earlier told “we have it under control”). Now it’s pretty much endemic, but hospitals aren’t overwhelmed so the government is just forging ahead. I think mostly due to the massive economic hit the country took. My guess is China will end up doing the same as the Western countries - once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals, they’ll just stop restrictions and pretend that was the plan all along and pat themselves on the back on how much better and smarter China handled it.
bdlowery 5y ago
Crazy that every nation other than china has had 3 big “waves” of Covid cases. Yet somehow china has only had the initial wave of Covid back in early 2020 and nothing else until now. Very strange.
- vijaybritto 5y ago
  Why is handling a medical emergency properly, strange?
- user_named 5y ago
  China has had many, many outbreaks in the past two years but they've all been contained locally and haven't spread to the national level.
- phatfish 5y ago
  Not when you look at the restrictions imposed on citizens, there are comments here about office blocks being locked down for 48hrs and everyone tested. Plus all the regional lockdowns where people were forced to stay indoors that were reported widely in western media. China could simply deal with a virus like COVID-19 far better than the west. They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good". Personally I would take western democracy/freedoms over an ideal COVID-19 response, but there is no reason to think it didn't work like that in China.
  - easytiger 5y ago
    > They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good". For a definition of "better" that most sane people wouldn't accept.
ElectronShak 5y ago
I greatly empathize with anyone who lost a loved one to Covid over the past two years. Sorry for your loss. However, I do think that the reason we took lockdowns as a solution is because China did the same in the first place. But I don't think we should do that again. I will speak for myself, and I have no epic reason, I am just tired of it all.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- zarzavat 5y ago
  My recollection is slightly different. The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead. China might have used lockdowns first but it was Italy that changed minds on their acceptability for western countries.
  - daqhris 5y ago
    True. Unbelievable but accurate.
  - logifail 5y ago
    > The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead. I think lockdowns were driven by politicians getting pressured and then scared and wanting to "do something", even without evidence that that "something" is necessary or will be effective against the problem. We're spent decades planning for pandemics. I have contacts who've worked in that field, yet none of them recall plans ever including the need for lockdowns. Instead they report that plans assumed schools would be forced to close due to lack of healthy staff, not due to government mandate. Then China started welding people in their apartments...[0] [0] https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/05/how-not-to-handle-a-pandemic/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/05/how-not-to-ha...
- 71a54xd 5y ago
  I strongly identify with this. I followed all of the rules for the past two years in downtown manhattan and I'm just done. If this strain happens to be pervasive and everyone freaks out again I'm just done with pretending cities are a thing / anything in person is a thing anymore.
wheresmycraisin 5y ago
"China is Entering Lockdown" seems like a massive overstatement. A couple of Tier 1 cities != China.
- user_named 5y ago
  Sure. Not yet. But this is the direction it's going in because there is nothing stopping it. One or two weeks from now that will be clear.
- nathansherburn 5y ago
  Thank you! As someone considering flying my family out of China soon I had a rush of fear reading that headline!
  - user_named 5y ago
    If you want them to avoid lockdown you better fly them out now and not in two weeks.
    - Kon-Peki 5y ago
      It may be too late. My family members decided to leave 3 weeks ago, and just arrived at O’Hare last night. International flights are very limited, but they generally do not go where you need them to go. So you have an additional layer of finding connections to where you need to go. You may have to wait weeks for available seats on the multiple airplanes you will have to use. One thing that I didn’t realize is that getting back into China/HK is not easy either. My brother will spend 2 weeks here in the US getting his wife and kids set up and then go back to work. But before he can get back in and spend 3 weeks in quarantine, he will have to go spend 2 weeks in Germany to “decontaminate” himself from spending time in the US!!!
  - ZYinMD 5y ago
    You should do it sooner than later if you have decided to go anyway. The numbers are not looking good: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml. It's like 200 200 200 200, then 500 500 500 500, then 2000 yesterday. But they're mostly in Jilin, so use your own judgement.
throwaway73838 5y ago
The pandemic response globally has been a case study in what not to do. A perfect storm of misinformation and fear, plus a healthy dose of opportunism. Now the CDC is straight up withholding data in case we “misinterpret” it. [1] [1] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220222/report-cdc-not-publishing-large-amounts-of-covid-19-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220222/report-cdc-not-publ...
- sergiomattei 5y ago
  No, just no. Yes, there’s been hiccups. Yes, misinformation made rounds. But we formulated safe and effective vaccines in months for it, rolled them out in ridiculous speeds and saved many lives. In contrast to past pandemics, we’ve handled this ridiculously well and we owe our butts to recent advancements in mRNA tech. So no, historically speaking, it’s been a case study of “there’s been problems, but an overwhelming success”.
  - theduder99 5y ago
    CDC changing the definition of the word vaccine to suit their ageneda is not simple 'misinformation'
    - sergiomattei 5y ago
      What agenda? What are you even going on about.
  - throwaway73838 5y ago
    So how many lives were saved by vaccines (to the nearest thousand)? And how many by lockdowns?
a_square_peg 5y ago
It's crazy seeing the numbers in Hong Kong and South Korea in the last couple of weeks and have been wondering if and when Omicron would eventually make its way into China. I would imagine the Chinese health authorities to be very nervous at the moment. Currently in Hong Kong and most people seem to be more concerned about the inconvenience that comes with a positive test than the risk.
imron 5y ago
So thoughtful of omicron to wait until after the Olympics!
Renaud 5y ago
If Hong Kong is any indicator of what's coming in China, the scale of that wave will have serious consequences on the country if they continue to insist on enforcing their stringent (and heartless) zero-covid policy. Be ready for even more supply-chain disruption.
- logicchains 5y ago
  >If Hong Kong is any indicator of what's coming in China, the scale of that wave will have serious consequences on the country if they continue to insist on enforcing their stringent (and heartless) zero-covid policy. Imagine how funny it'd be if China really had deliberately released covid from a lab, but it ended up screwing up China more than any other countries.
  - Proven 5y ago
logifail 5y ago
> Last Friday there were about a 1000 new daily cases nationally, higher than at the peak in 2020 In the last 7 days the city of Vienna alone has reported over 50k additional Covid cases, Austria as a whole reported 284k.[0] We're long past the point where we should be counting and worrying about daily new cases, at this point it's just not helpful. The virus has changed, our treatments have changed, our ability to vaccinate has changed. When will our thinking change? [0] https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/ https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/
sdfsasdgearg 5y ago
tommiegannert 5y ago
> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized Would you expect this to continue being the new normal? From what I've seen in the US, it seems big companies are eager to have people back in offices, and the NYC mayor really want people to come back, because coffee shops suffer.
- mathverse 5y ago
  WFH will never be normalized in China. It goes against every cultural trait of Chinese people.
simonhorlick 5y ago
Over time, the effects of covid19 on heart, brain, lungs, vascular system, sensory system, kidneys & more will become better understood. Until then, any reassurance that massive levels of infection are ‘ok’ for society is a gamble—a gamble with unknown long-term costs. (quote from stanford infectious disease doctor Abraar Karan)
- tchoff 5y ago
- Lascaille 5y ago
  This is academic thinking. The infections will occur because nothing can be done about them. Omicron is too transmissible to contain. Everyone understands that now. There is no 'gambling' here because there is no dice to throw. The die is cast by nature.
windex 5y ago
>omicron when it is not dangerous Not true. There are cardiac complications long after you have had any version of COVID.
nikkinana 5y ago
pinetlk 5y ago
It seems the 0-covid policy is a negative consequence of having so many people so close together. It changes the dynamic of infectious diseases so that you suddenly have 100k people die instead of 100. Still, I am strongly against lockdowns and mandates and so on. The cure is much worse than the disease from my perspective. I have no concern over covid, all of my concern is over what the government will do next. Will I be allowed to go to the gym, which is essentially a life-line for me? They closed those for months last time.
- dennis_jeeves1 5y ago
  .I am strongly against lockdowns and mandates and so on. The cure is much worse than the disease from my perspective. I have no concern over covid, all of my concern is over what the government will do next. Thanks for stating that. Even if a disease killed everyone there should never be a lockdown in a truly free society. It follows that no society is free...
  - qsdf38100 5y ago
    Freedom isn’t about being allowed to do _anything_
  - 8note 5y ago
    What did it do next after the Spanish flu lock downs? This isn't uncharted territory
- logicchains 5y ago
  >It seems the 0-covid policy is a negative consequence of having so many people so close together If you look at cities by population density, China isn't even in the top ten: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_proper_by_population_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_proper_by_popul... . Some Indian cities have higher population density than any in China, but they did fine without lockdown.
  - lobstey 5y ago
    Did fine means 500k death in COVID?
kken 5y ago
I wonder how that compares to South Korea? They also managed to keep the number low for a long time. During Decomber 2021 there was a huge panic because suddenly there was a peak above 5000, but it subsided again. Now with Omikron it appears that there is no limit anymore. Currently they have more than 350000 new cases per day, the highest in any country.
rsync 5y ago
Anecdote: we have a Hong Kong location (hkcolo, TKO) and suddenly, in the last 2-3 weeks we are seeing email notifications about positive tests and exposures and contact alerts at the datacenter. This is new. They were not having these positive test results nor having these exposures at any time prior. From the outside (thank god) it appears that c19 is running through HK much faster than at any point prior …
- sketch242 5y ago
  [dead]
  - rsync 5y ago
    Thank you for sharing all of this - appreciated.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    mRNA is basically as worthless as inactivated viruses in preventing omicron spread as well, seeing how omicron has burned through most of the west. Difference in efficacy will buy a few days before exponential curve takes over. Reality is Omicron has closed the gap in performance between different vaccines, which is to say, render them woefully insufficient in preventing medical systems from being overwhelmed. Preventing severe cases is about the only utility for vaccines now, the major epidemiological intervention is back to crushing the curve / maintaining covid zero for population with low covid exposure. Or else PRC would be as / more screwed than countries that depend on mRNA.
user_named 5y ago
Why is this thread being sent back several pages?
- lobstey 5y ago
  because the low quality Poli trash talk is unrelated to hn
narrator 5y ago
The level of control of people in China is only made possible by their huge use of AI. George Soros complained about AI in China and it's political ramifications there in a recent speech at Stanford in January that went over this and other topics in U.S China relations. Below is an excerpt. Btw, this is his official site with the whole speech transcript. https://www.georgesoros.com/2022/01/31/george-soros-on-china-remarks-delivered-at-the-hoover-institution/ https://www.georgesoros.com/2022/01/31/george-soros-on-china... " In theory, AI is morally and ethically neutral; it can be used for good or bad. But in practice, its effect is asymmetric. AI is particularly good at producing instruments of control that help repressive regimes and endanger open societies. Interestingly, the Coronavirus reinforced the advantage repressive regimes enjoy by legitimizing the use of personal data for public control purposes. With these advantages, one might think that Xi Jinping, who collects personal data for the surveillance of his citizens more aggressively than any other ruler in history, is bound to be successful. He certainly thinks so, and many people believe him. " Anyway, it's a good one to read in full when thinking about the future of AI and how it will interact with society and government.
nuc1e0n 5y ago
Try to get an external computer monitor, keyboard and mouse for your laptop and good quality office chair. Make the desk and working environment as comfortable as possible as you may be working there for months. I like to have a blanket to put over my legs. Also try to have your desk in a separate room from where you relax in the evening and where you sleep as well.
contingencies 5y ago
As of yesterday after vacillating for some weeks with temporary local lockdowns and transport service suspensions, Shenzhen is now under near-total lockdown. All non-essential/infrastructure businesses must close ("WFH"). Cars cannot move freely in or out until the 18th (yesterday this was announced as a single one-way transit per vehicle only, perhaps today no transit). Buses and metro are shut down until the 20th. Unclear policy regarding domestic courier services, but most likely temporarily shut. One person per family may leave a house once per day for food purchasing. Panic food purchasing reportedly began yesterday. The food situation will surely be fine, but businesses should anticipate immediate electronics supply chain and manufacturing delays as a result of the lockdown.
berdario 5y ago
> you can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous ??? More than 6000 (6 thousands!) People die every day from Covid. And this doesn't even take into account long covid, and the wider impact on society. Sure, if you're young and vaccinated you're probably going to be fine, but if they let Covid spread freely the damage will be immense
goldname 5y ago
Such an awful idea. In order to save a few lives they're hurting everyone.
71a54xd 5y ago
If another covid strain hits, I'm leaving new york permanently and just living remotely in CO. I've re-tooled my life two times in the past three years and I'm just ready to check out at this point from social bullshit. Anyone else in this boat? Modern life is broken, I held out for office / sort of social culture to come back since I know it's better for me (as an introverted person) but at this point in my mid-late 20s I'm just sort of done. I probably wasn't good enough to really leverage opportunities in NYC anyways... Cheers.
T3RMINATED 5y ago

314 points by user_named 5y ago

senectus1 5y ago

china has been doing hard lockdowns for 2 years. just very very targeted very very HARD lockdowns.

user_named 5y ago
Yes. But that's different. The West we're doing national or citywide lockdowns which did not happen to the same extent here. Now, we will definitely see general citywide lockdowns soon. That's what's changed.
- senectus1 5y ago
  I suspect the west did that differently because of : A) our political maps are very different to China's. B) Population density is a lot lower in the west than in China.

NullPrefix 5y ago

How is the vaccination situation in China?

user_named 5y ago
90%+ have had two shots. Probably more like 95-99%. You can get third shots now.
- senectus1 5y ago
  yeah but the effectiveness of the sinovax is hardly reliable information imho
  - tjpnz 5y ago
    Annecdotal but I know a few families in the Philippines where some members got Pfizer and others got Sinovac. The Pfizer group did significantly better when the inevitable occurred (the situation last year was particularly horrific).

WaxedChewbacca 5y ago

gbraad 5y ago

Beijing isn't that bad yet, but no express mailing. The youngest can't go to kindergarten as a classmate had a close contact with a positive case. We all tested negative.

user_named 5y ago
It's not bad here yet either. Stuff is closed down but you can still take the subway. Theres probably a hundred communities shut down city wide but that's likely just a fraction of a percent of all communities. But, the number of cases do not stop increasing, so lockdown will certainly come in the next few weeks.
- gbraad 5y ago
  Most likely, but even among districts the actions they take are different. Our old neighborhood (in Chaoyang) has benn closed multiple times. Here in Dongcheng we have only seen that in 2020 during February till April, though 'lockdown' and no classes had been till the new semester in September. We will see what happens. Anyways, best of luck. Stock up on food and work from home. Luckily for n our family we can easily.

mrintellectual 5y ago

I can sympathize with your situation. I was in an office building in Shanghai last November when it got locked down for 48 hours - nobody in or out. Everybody ended up ordering takeout, and the entire building had to be tested for COVID a total of four times. The most insane part is that they don't even let you take pictures of the lockdown (I almost got my phone confiscated by the police for taking pictures). Also, sleeping in an office chair is a lot harder than it looks.

user_named 5y ago
Exactly. This is another situation that everyone wants to avoid getting caught in. Like I mentioned, it is now about not getting hit with control measures rather than avoiding the actual disease. I should also mention that the situation is t actually "bad." I can leave my apartment and walk around, probably take the taxi anywhere in the city. But I think that will change over the next few weeks.
synergyS 5y ago
Omg pretty strict procedure, you had to remain in the office for 48 hours?
- user_named 5y ago
  Yes, offices become quarantine sites if someone test positive.
  - oauea 5y ago
    Sounds like a good way to get everyone there infected.
    - Wowfunhappy 5y ago
      ...yes, that's how quarantines work? Everyone within the quarantine may get infected, but the virus won't spread to anyone outside.

jwong_ 5y ago

Zhejiang seems okay so far for now. Goods availability on Meituan still.

user_named 5y ago
We also have good availability overall, it's just that some places are closed and some are sold out of various goods so you have to order from several. Except tomatoes are gone almost everywhere, except some terrible varieties.

fbrncci 5y ago

I probably chose the wrong time to take time off, and travel to SEA for three weeks. Halfway expecting to land there and spend the next few months in lockdown. Wonder how HR will take it.

user_named 5y ago
If you can even get in. If you're in SEA I think you still can but you may want to hurry up.
- fbrncci 5y ago
  Departing within 72 hours, loads of paperwork went into getting approved to get in. Everything seems to be opening up, but while most are calling for things to open up even further; authorities are pointing fingers again to the rising number of infections and the possibility of collapse of the health care systems. However, two weeks ago, all seemed absolutely fine.
sfifs 5y ago
South East Asia is pretty much opening up and treating Covid as endemic. You shouldn't have problems.
- fbrncci 5y ago
  They were very much in line with opening up the past month, but the past few days calls are getting louder to do something about the rising number of infections; along with the strain on the health care systems.
  - thematrixturtle 5y ago
    "They"? It's a whole bunch of independent countries with very different COVID policies, but virtually all are moving towards opening up, not locking down.
    - 5y ago

dehrmann 5y ago

What did prevention measures look like in the months leading up to this? It seemed like aggressive policies were enough up until delta, but omicron is just too contagious.

user_named 5y ago
Basically the same as now. People coming in from abroad quarantine for 14 days. Whenever there's a case, they trace and test everyone they've been in contact with, and also the second degree contacts. For one case, they tested more than 10,000 people, off memory. You're exactly right. Even these measures do not work to contain omicron. The only thing that's changed over the past two years is that the new strain is so much more contagious.

anthropodie 5y ago

I am guessing this is because of omicron? It's not clear from the post.

user_named 5y ago
Yes, due to omicron.
twiceaday 5y ago
> two weeks ago it became clear to me that we would soon be entering lockdown as the omicron cases won't stop increasing
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
trash3 5y ago
It's from the hybridized omicron

Thorentis 5y ago

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

user_named 5y ago
I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.
- a-dub 5y ago
  i imagine that 0-covid is a point of pride for politicians and government officials. do you think there will be no issue in having the agility to completely reverse course?
  - user_named 5y ago
    I think the public will agree with softer measures a few months from now as it becomes clear that getting locked down is worse than getting this strain. There are already mentions in the media about this.
- em500 5y ago
  Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination rates among the elderly is relatively low. Look at Hong Kong for a sobering example. They've never had any large outbreak during the entire pandemic until two months ago. Now they're averaging almost 200 Covid deaths per day, on a population of 7 million. Per capita this is worse than the peak of the Alpha and Delta waves in the US or UK. If a big outbreak like Hong Kong happens in China, they might be facing 50k+ deaths per day.

captainmuon 5y ago

But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long time until everything is back to normal. So far, the suppression policy seems to pay off for China.

benjaminwootton 5y ago
I imagine it’s been a pretty tough few years for the people there, and they still have to go through the full waves when their vaccines wane in effectiveness and the rest of the world gets back to normal. I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.
- user_named 5y ago
  It's been perfectly fine except you haven't been able to leave the country and come back, except for some exceptions. I mean I know people who left for Christmas and came back but that's a lot of work and risking policy change while you're gone.
  - benjaminwootton 5y ago
    Do you still have to do social distancing, limiting numbers, limiting hospitality, QR checkins etc? Are people living in fear of Covid etc? I’m not saying it’s like that in China, but I would find it pretty hard to live like that plus no international travel to maintain zero Covid.
    - user_named 5y ago
      Social distancing has never been a big thing in China because we've had masks for two years. It's only when for example lining up for a covid test that there's been marked one meter distances you had to pay attention to. Only anti-mask backwards countries have promoted social distancing as a measure. You sometimes check in with qr, but most of the time you just show your green health code which is a qr too, and sign your name, phone number etc on a sheet at the restaurant or such that you enter. But for a long time now you haven't had to show your health code as there haven't been many cases.

benjaminwootton 5y ago

It’s amazing the costs China are willing to bear for this. Inevitably they will lose the war, and when they do it is a mild disease going into what I assume is a well vaccinated population. The UK has been hard at times in 2020 and 2021, but Covid feels like ancient history here now, as it should do.

user_named 5y ago
I think it's the opposite. Chinas economy was quickly back to normal in 2020 while other countries suffered. But it's going to be costly this time, for little return.
- beebmam 5y ago
  It's such an absurd tradeoff for the Omicron variant, which is less deadly than the flu[1]. COVID isn't ever going away. China seems to be willing to pay a giant recurring cost, eternally, for an infection less harmful than the flu. Insane. 1. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1501773203261165570 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1501773203261165570
  - user_named 5y ago
    As I mentioned, policy will change after this as it becomes clear that it is not fit for omicron.
  - rikima_ 5y ago
    > It's such an absurd tradeoff for the Omicron variant, which is less deadly than the flu[1] Apparently the data is only applicable for England, which has already achieved herd immunity
  - goldname 5y ago
    Agreed. It's stupid. Feel bad for the people living their miserable lives there. First locked in school all day for 24/7 and now they're locked in because the government is scared
- deleted 5y ago

elric 5y ago

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

user_named 5y ago
- elric 5y ago
  I don't necessarily disagree with that statement, but it'd be nice if you backed it up with some actual examples.
  - user_named 5y ago
    - CorrectHorseBat 5y ago
      Or were they one of the few countries not underreporting?
    - elric 5y ago
      > Did they not tell you that in Belgium? What's up with this pointless snarkiness? You're making it sound like the machinations of an evil propaganda machine, when in reality Belgium has been quite good at overreporting covid stats. Not sure which stats you're referring to as being "some of the worst in the world".
      - user_named 5y ago
        You question the reporting in a country, I do the same and you get upset. Belgium has been among the top in every chart I've seen. I can't imagine those charts not having been reported on in Belgium.

samwillis 5y ago

I find this fascinating in comparison with the situation here in the UK where about 70% of the population are triple vaccinated. Omicron is everywhere, literally. Anecdotally I would say 80-90% of households with school aged kids have had Omicron since the beginning of January and it’s still doing the rounds. We now have no restrictions and even during the peak in Jan/Feb it was very very minimal. There will be no more restrictions here at all unless something drastic happens later in the year with a new variant.

benjaminwootton 5y ago
Omnicron in particular is so low impact that the response is primarily political, especially when you have vaccines and some pre existing immunity. Countries can choose to pretty much ignore it or go crazy over it as the politicians and Twitter demand. We just got bored of it in the UK and moved onto Boris’s parties and now Ukraine.
- EGreg 5y ago
  Omicron could be the best thing that happened -- a mild, very infectious variant that gives everyone NATURAL herd immunity to the entire coronavirus family. Why are politicians so afraid of it?
  - JudasGoat 5y ago
    While I agree with your statement. If you look at the present condition of medical facilities in Hong Kong, and imagine that situation reaching 1.4 billion people in a relatively short time. Also these people unlike many Westerner's probably don't have anti bodies from previous Covid-19 infections.
  - edanm 5y ago
    Because a large number of people are dying.
  - didibus 5y ago
    I don't know about politicians, but I can tell you why I'm not rejoicing quite yet. Number 1: While it is milder, it will still kill a lot of people. Yes they're mostly elderly, or they are immunocompromised and have other health issues already, but for those people it still means premature death, and for their families and friends it's still a loss of a loved one. Number 2: Long Covid is still not understood. The prevalence, impact and cause is too nebulous. It can manifest itself 6 to 12 months after first infection, so there's not been data about Omicron for it yet, since we're only starting to approach some people recovering on the 6 month mark. There's conflicting predictions of it affecting 5% to 30% of everyone (all age) who gets COVID. And it looks like sometimes the effect are dehabilitating, where people can't even go to work. So while it's nice Omicron doesn't kill you, it isn't clear if it will make you unhealthy and suffer from chronic problems for the rest of your life, and possibly shorten your lifespan. We also don't know if the chances of long COVID exist each time you get Covid, so even if it were 5% but you get it year over year, and each year it's 5% chance, it might be a matter of time till we all have long COVID. Number 3: Healthcare capacity and supplies. Even though the percentages of cases that need medical care is smaller, if too many people get it at the same.time, the total number of people needing medical care could be quite large and breach the healthcare capacity. Number 4: Cost on the economy. When people say it's mild, it's often still like getting the flu, which means you're off work for 3 to 10 days. If everyone gets it once or twice a year, and if people get it all at the same time, it means supply chain issues, delayed business, it just puts pressure everywhere on the economy.

tootahe45 5y ago

> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized Why would this suddenly happen now considering it didn't happen anywhere over the past 2 years?

user_named 5y ago
Because we only had 2-3 months of lockdown before, after that it's been business as usual. But to contain omicron you need literally everyone to stay at home, and also more will need to as I think it will be impossible to not be a second degree contact a month from now.

EGreg 5y ago

Seriously, Omicron is so mild, why is everyone going on lockdown? This is finally how everyone can cheaply get herd immunity!

teruakohatu 5y ago

In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests. In an hour we have as many new cases as we had in total in the first two years of COVID. But life is going on as semi-normal, most people are being reasonably responsible. 96% of the 12 yr+ population is double vaccinated, and about 60% boosted. The government has ruled out more lockdowns. I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand, and would be just as well equipped to deal with a "first" wave in 2022.

z3t111 5y ago
"I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand" This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.
- dehrmann 5y ago
  Hong Kong also had an issue with hesitancy because covid zero worked so well. Not sure if mainland China has the same issue.
sva_ 5y ago
> system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests When my social circle finally got COVID, the rapid tests didn't work at all for almost all of us. One friend even tested himself 15 times with them, and he definitely used it right. We used various RATs. PCR showed positive for Omicron though. I don't think those tests are as reliable as they're claimed to be. I would think hospital stats matter more than active cases though.
- rubatuga 5y ago
  Switch to oropharyngeal swabbing technique, this worked much better for me.
adastra22 5y ago

petesergeant 5y ago

> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital. This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor handling of the pandemic.

thecleaner 5y ago
Sorry but what's the source that mRNA boosters work against Omicron ? I thought it's more like the vaccines neutralize threat from the original 2-3 variants and Omicron isn't deadly in and of itself. Also maybe this is China specific paranoia since neighbouring India doesn't care much and they seem to be doing fine wrt Omicron.
user_named 5y ago
Good point. This is going to be tricky.
refurb 5y ago
Indeed. I’ve been somewhat amazed at how China has handled it as of late. I get the short-term goal - stop Covid from taking hold by isolating new outbreaks. They have the manpower and the organization to isolate entire cities, do mass testing and lockdown neighborhoods. But: 1. It’s pretty clear with Omnicron the higher infectivity is making that task harder and lockdowns longer 2. The lockdowns have real economic impact that you might be able to weather in the short-term AND while other countries are in the same bucket, but it’s not a long term solution. 3. What is their long-term goal? Maintain zero Covid forever? Impossible unless a highly effective vaccine that prevents transmission is invented. I have family in another authoritarian country that took a similar approach to China. It bit them in the ass when the outbreaks were bigger than they could handle so then it became massive vaccination (by coming hat in hand to the companies/countries that they had earlier told “we have it under control”). Now it’s pretty much endemic, but hospitals aren’t overwhelmed so the government is just forging ahead. I think mostly due to the massive economic hit the country took. My guess is China will end up doing the same as the Western countries - once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals, they’ll just stop restrictions and pretend that was the plan all along and pat themselves on the back on how much better and smarter China handled it.

bdlowery 5y ago

Crazy that every nation other than china has had 3 big “waves” of Covid cases. Yet somehow china has only had the initial wave of Covid back in early 2020 and nothing else until now. Very strange.

vijaybritto 5y ago
Why is handling a medical emergency properly, strange?
user_named 5y ago
China has had many, many outbreaks in the past two years but they've all been contained locally and haven't spread to the national level.
phatfish 5y ago
Not when you look at the restrictions imposed on citizens, there are comments here about office blocks being locked down for 48hrs and everyone tested. Plus all the regional lockdowns where people were forced to stay indoors that were reported widely in western media. China could simply deal with a virus like COVID-19 far better than the west. They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good". Personally I would take western democracy/freedoms over an ideal COVID-19 response, but there is no reason to think it didn't work like that in China.
- easytiger 5y ago
  > They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good". For a definition of "better" that most sane people wouldn't accept.

ElectronShak 5y ago

I greatly empathize with anyone who lost a loved one to Covid over the past two years. Sorry for your loss. However, I do think that the reason we took lockdowns as a solution is because China did the same in the first place. But I don't think we should do that again. I will speak for myself, and I have no epic reason, I am just tired of it all.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
zarzavat 5y ago
My recollection is slightly different. The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead. China might have used lockdowns first but it was Italy that changed minds on their acceptability for western countries.
- daqhris 5y ago
  True. Unbelievable but accurate.
- logifail 5y ago
  > The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead. I think lockdowns were driven by politicians getting pressured and then scared and wanting to "do something", even without evidence that that "something" is necessary or will be effective against the problem. We're spent decades planning for pandemics. I have contacts who've worked in that field, yet none of them recall plans ever including the need for lockdowns. Instead they report that plans assumed schools would be forced to close due to lack of healthy staff, not due to government mandate. Then China started welding people in their apartments...[0] [0] https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/05/how-not-to-handle-a-pandemic/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/05/how-not-to-ha...
71a54xd 5y ago
I strongly identify with this. I followed all of the rules for the past two years in downtown manhattan and I'm just done. If this strain happens to be pervasive and everyone freaks out again I'm just done with pretending cities are a thing / anything in person is a thing anymore.

wheresmycraisin 5y ago

"China is Entering Lockdown" seems like a massive overstatement. A couple of Tier 1 cities != China.

user_named 5y ago
Sure. Not yet. But this is the direction it's going in because there is nothing stopping it. One or two weeks from now that will be clear.
nathansherburn 5y ago
Thank you! As someone considering flying my family out of China soon I had a rush of fear reading that headline!
- user_named 5y ago
  If you want them to avoid lockdown you better fly them out now and not in two weeks.
  - Kon-Peki 5y ago
    It may be too late. My family members decided to leave 3 weeks ago, and just arrived at O’Hare last night. International flights are very limited, but they generally do not go where you need them to go. So you have an additional layer of finding connections to where you need to go. You may have to wait weeks for available seats on the multiple airplanes you will have to use. One thing that I didn’t realize is that getting back into China/HK is not easy either. My brother will spend 2 weeks here in the US getting his wife and kids set up and then go back to work. But before he can get back in and spend 3 weeks in quarantine, he will have to go spend 2 weeks in Germany to “decontaminate” himself from spending time in the US!!!
- ZYinMD 5y ago
  You should do it sooner than later if you have decided to go anyway. The numbers are not looking good: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml. It's like 200 200 200 200, then 500 500 500 500, then 2000 yesterday. But they're mostly in Jilin, so use your own judgement.

throwaway73838 5y ago

The pandemic response globally has been a case study in what not to do. A perfect storm of misinformation and fear, plus a healthy dose of opportunism. Now the CDC is straight up withholding data in case we “misinterpret” it. [1] [1] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220222/report-cdc-not-publishing-large-amounts-of-covid-19-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220222/report-cdc-not-publ...

sergiomattei 5y ago
No, just no. Yes, there’s been hiccups. Yes, misinformation made rounds. But we formulated safe and effective vaccines in months for it, rolled them out in ridiculous speeds and saved many lives. In contrast to past pandemics, we’ve handled this ridiculously well and we owe our butts to recent advancements in mRNA tech. So no, historically speaking, it’s been a case study of “there’s been problems, but an overwhelming success”.
- theduder99 5y ago
  CDC changing the definition of the word vaccine to suit their ageneda is not simple 'misinformation'
  - sergiomattei 5y ago
    What agenda? What are you even going on about.
- throwaway73838 5y ago
  So how many lives were saved by vaccines (to the nearest thousand)? And how many by lockdowns?

a_square_peg 5y ago

It's crazy seeing the numbers in Hong Kong and South Korea in the last couple of weeks and have been wondering if and when Omicron would eventually make its way into China. I would imagine the Chinese health authorities to be very nervous at the moment. Currently in Hong Kong and most people seem to be more concerned about the inconvenience that comes with a positive test than the risk.

imron 5y ago

So thoughtful of omicron to wait until after the Olympics!

Renaud 5y ago

If Hong Kong is any indicator of what's coming in China, the scale of that wave will have serious consequences on the country if they continue to insist on enforcing their stringent (and heartless) zero-covid policy. Be ready for even more supply-chain disruption.

logicchains 5y ago
>If Hong Kong is any indicator of what's coming in China, the scale of that wave will have serious consequences on the country if they continue to insist on enforcing their stringent (and heartless) zero-covid policy. Imagine how funny it'd be if China really had deliberately released covid from a lab, but it ended up screwing up China more than any other countries.
- Proven 5y ago

logifail 5y ago

> Last Friday there were about a 1000 new daily cases nationally, higher than at the peak in 2020 In the last 7 days the city of Vienna alone has reported over 50k additional Covid cases, Austria as a whole reported 284k.[0] We're long past the point where we should be counting and worrying about daily new cases, at this point it's just not helpful. The virus has changed, our treatments have changed, our ability to vaccinate has changed. When will our thinking change? [0] https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/ https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/

sdfsasdgearg 5y ago

tommiegannert 5y ago

> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized Would you expect this to continue being the new normal? From what I've seen in the US, it seems big companies are eager to have people back in offices, and the NYC mayor really want people to come back, because coffee shops suffer.

mathverse 5y ago
WFH will never be normalized in China. It goes against every cultural trait of Chinese people.

simonhorlick 5y ago

Over time, the effects of covid19 on heart, brain, lungs, vascular system, sensory system, kidneys & more will become better understood. Until then, any reassurance that massive levels of infection are ‘ok’ for society is a gamble—a gamble with unknown long-term costs. (quote from stanford infectious disease doctor Abraar Karan)

tchoff 5y ago
Lascaille 5y ago
This is academic thinking. The infections will occur because nothing can be done about them. Omicron is too transmissible to contain. Everyone understands that now. There is no 'gambling' here because there is no dice to throw. The die is cast by nature.

windex 5y ago

>omicron when it is not dangerous Not true. There are cardiac complications long after you have had any version of COVID.

nikkinana 5y ago

pinetlk 5y ago

It seems the 0-covid policy is a negative consequence of having so many people so close together. It changes the dynamic of infectious diseases so that you suddenly have 100k people die instead of 100. Still, I am strongly against lockdowns and mandates and so on. The cure is much worse than the disease from my perspective. I have no concern over covid, all of my concern is over what the government will do next. Will I be allowed to go to the gym, which is essentially a life-line for me? They closed those for months last time.

dennis_jeeves1 5y ago
.I am strongly against lockdowns and mandates and so on. The cure is much worse than the disease from my perspective. I have no concern over covid, all of my concern is over what the government will do next. Thanks for stating that. Even if a disease killed everyone there should never be a lockdown in a truly free society. It follows that no society is free...
- qsdf38100 5y ago
  Freedom isn’t about being allowed to do _anything_
- 8note 5y ago
  What did it do next after the Spanish flu lock downs? This isn't uncharted territory
logicchains 5y ago
>It seems the 0-covid policy is a negative consequence of having so many people so close together If you look at cities by population density, China isn't even in the top ten: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_proper_by_population_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_proper_by_popul... . Some Indian cities have higher population density than any in China, but they did fine without lockdown.
- lobstey 5y ago
  Did fine means 500k death in COVID?

kken 5y ago

I wonder how that compares to South Korea? They also managed to keep the number low for a long time. During Decomber 2021 there was a huge panic because suddenly there was a peak above 5000, but it subsided again. Now with Omikron it appears that there is no limit anymore. Currently they have more than 350000 new cases per day, the highest in any country.

rsync 5y ago

Anecdote: we have a Hong Kong location (hkcolo, TKO) and suddenly, in the last 2-3 weeks we are seeing email notifications about positive tests and exposures and contact alerts at the datacenter. This is new. They were not having these positive test results nor having these exposures at any time prior. From the outside (thank god) it appears that c19 is running through HK much faster than at any point prior …

sketch242 5y ago
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- rsync 5y ago
  Thank you for sharing all of this - appreciated.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  mRNA is basically as worthless as inactivated viruses in preventing omicron spread as well, seeing how omicron has burned through most of the west. Difference in efficacy will buy a few days before exponential curve takes over. Reality is Omicron has closed the gap in performance between different vaccines, which is to say, render them woefully insufficient in preventing medical systems from being overwhelmed. Preventing severe cases is about the only utility for vaccines now, the major epidemiological intervention is back to crushing the curve / maintaining covid zero for population with low covid exposure. Or else PRC would be as / more screwed than countries that depend on mRNA.

user_named 5y ago

Why is this thread being sent back several pages?

lobstey 5y ago
because the low quality Poli trash talk is unrelated to hn

narrator 5y ago

The level of control of people in China is only made possible by their huge use of AI. George Soros complained about AI in China and it's political ramifications there in a recent speech at Stanford in January that went over this and other topics in U.S China relations. Below is an excerpt. Btw, this is his official site with the whole speech transcript. https://www.georgesoros.com/2022/01/31/george-soros-on-china-remarks-delivered-at-the-hoover-institution/ https://www.georgesoros.com/2022/01/31/george-soros-on-china... " In theory, AI is morally and ethically neutral; it can be used for good or bad. But in practice, its effect is asymmetric. AI is particularly good at producing instruments of control that help repressive regimes and endanger open societies. Interestingly, the Coronavirus reinforced the advantage repressive regimes enjoy by legitimizing the use of personal data for public control purposes. With these advantages, one might think that Xi Jinping, who collects personal data for the surveillance of his citizens more aggressively than any other ruler in history, is bound to be successful. He certainly thinks so, and many people believe him. " Anyway, it's a good one to read in full when thinking about the future of AI and how it will interact with society and government.

nuc1e0n 5y ago

Try to get an external computer monitor, keyboard and mouse for your laptop and good quality office chair. Make the desk and working environment as comfortable as possible as you may be working there for months. I like to have a blanket to put over my legs. Also try to have your desk in a separate room from where you relax in the evening and where you sleep as well.

contingencies 5y ago

As of yesterday after vacillating for some weeks with temporary local lockdowns and transport service suspensions, Shenzhen is now under near-total lockdown. All non-essential/infrastructure businesses must close ("WFH"). Cars cannot move freely in or out until the 18th (yesterday this was announced as a single one-way transit per vehicle only, perhaps today no transit). Buses and metro are shut down until the 20th. Unclear policy regarding domestic courier services, but most likely temporarily shut. One person per family may leave a house once per day for food purchasing. Panic food purchasing reportedly began yesterday. The food situation will surely be fine, but businesses should anticipate immediate electronics supply chain and manufacturing delays as a result of the lockdown.

berdario 5y ago

> you can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous ??? More than 6000 (6 thousands!) People die every day from Covid. And this doesn't even take into account long covid, and the wider impact on society. Sure, if you're young and vaccinated you're probably going to be fine, but if they let Covid spread freely the damage will be immense

goldname 5y ago

Such an awful idea. In order to save a few lives they're hurting everyone.

71a54xd 5y ago

If another covid strain hits, I'm leaving new york permanently and just living remotely in CO. I've re-tooled my life two times in the past three years and I'm just ready to check out at this point from social bullshit. Anyone else in this boat? Modern life is broken, I held out for office / sort of social culture to come back since I know it's better for me (as an introverted person) but at this point in my mid-late 20s I'm just sort of done. I probably wasn't good enough to really leverage opportunities in NYC anyways... Cheers.

T3RMINATED 5y ago