17 ms·

China asked Russia to delay war until after Olympics, Biden officials say

344 points by neverminder 5y ago

amai 5y ago
Can’t China then also ask Russia to stop the war?
NFSC-HELP 5y ago
dotdi 5y ago
This is the NY Times article that Reuters cites: https://archive.ph/LOMqw https://archive.ph/LOMqw
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
newsclues 5y ago
Which is interesting because it’s getting warmer and the conditions have proven muddy so roads are being used more which is a choke point. China is the leading superpower I guess.
- csours 5y ago
  China is the superpower they share a land border with, and are least ideologically distant compared to other powers.
  - newsclues 5y ago
    I think it’s interesting that China could dictate the timing to Russia.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > I think it’s interesting that China could dictate the timing to Russia. It's not the 70s anymore. China is far stronger than Russia, and going forward Russia will be extremely dependent on them, because of sanctions for the Ukraine invasion. IMHO, China's likely going to be able to turn Russia into a vassal.
      - jacknews 5y ago
        This would be a very unwelcome development for western countries. But it makes sense for China; why bark yourself, when you have a nuclear poodle?
  - dathinab 5y ago
    > least ideologically distant Far more ideological distant then you might think. The current Russia has nothing to do with communism, it's all about oligarchs and authoritarian capitalism. China's ideology "hates" oligarchs, but they are also authoritarian, and have common opposition so working together makes sense. But that's it. Besides "authoritarian" they share very little in common wrt. there ideology.
- edgyquant 5y ago
  China isn’t a superpower
  - munk-a 5y ago
    Are you arguing that super powers don't exist in the modern world or just that China doesn't qualify as one?
    - ipaddr 5y ago
      I think the poster means China doesn't qualify as one. I'll take that position. China hasn't achieved superpower status. It hasn't chosen to take the necessary risks.
    - soneil 5y ago
      I don't think we really have a good definition of a superpower that fits the modern world. But I think it's a fair claim that China currently lacks (or appears to lack) the force projection required to fit the traditional description.
      - munk-a 5y ago
        I think it's unreasonable to argue that China isn't a regional power since it's bullying its way through the South China Sea without any local resistance - I think the fact that the US isn't opposing China in this in any sort of meaningful way sort of reinforces the argument that they may be a super power. However, I find the strongest argument as to their super-power-ness to be their extreme infrastructure investments in south asia (Gwadar Port in particular but also their various investments in Ceylon and the Red Sea) and Africa. China is working hard to establish a monopoly on rare earth mineral extraction. However, due to the astronomical amount of military spending the US continues to commit to I think it's fair to argue the point. China might have been a super power in the 80 with this level of global investment - but the US is just going into orbit.
        edgyquant 5y ago
- ProAm 5y ago
  China has been the world's superpower for the last 12 years.
  - ipaddr 5y ago
    Why 12 years? By superpower what are you measuring to determine this?
    - ProAm 5y ago
      They are the most powerful and influential country on earth currently. America has economic inertia, but cannot win wars anymore with the most well funded and technically advanced military, and they no longer make things (largely). They had a good run but this is sunset for USA and sunrise for China (which started decades ago but I feel matured after the last fiscal crisis the US had in the late 2000's. America won't be over tomorrow, just like the Britain wasn't forgotten overnight after they lost their global superpower status 100 years ago.
      - ipaddr 5y ago
        Are they the most influential country? Their media exports are extremely small and their cultural influence doesn't extend globally. They don't gather respect by creating peace, they don't gather respect through charity. Militarily they are not the most advance or spend to that level. China isn't the largest economy yet. They say they could overtake the US by 2030
        ProAm 5y ago
        > Are they the most influential country? I believe they are in terms of economy, supply chain, economic future growth. > China isn't the largest economy yet. Personally I think this is done deal and just a matter of time, like global warming, its not complete, but clearly on the path.
      - pixl97 5y ago
        US can win 'wars' just fine. In mere days we wipe every piece of hardware a country has off the map. We cannot win occupations and the police actions we commit to because the win condition is not a military one.
InitialLastName 5y ago
It would be wild if that delay was what turned this war from a route into a quagmire for Russia by delaying them into the thaw season. They already appear to be having issues with mud, and weather forecasts in Kyiv appear to be mostly above freezing for the rest of the week.
- cutenewt 5y ago
  Probably the last time Putin is going to grant any wishes to Xi
  - datavirtue 5y ago
    These guys are tight. China has been migrating into Siberia for years.
    - geoka9 5y ago
      "Digesting" Siberia.
  - kryptiskt 5y ago
    Russia is very much the junior partner in the relationship with China, and now that they have burned their bridges to the West they lack any leverage against China. They are going to have to defer a lot more going forwards.
    - celticninja 5y ago
      Yup, as sole buyer China are going to set the price of Russia's oil and gas.
      - lupire 5y ago
        Does China have other sellers?
    - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
pphysch 5y ago
...according to anonymous intelligence officials.
- adamrezich 5y ago
  ...familiar with the thinking of those involved
- jacobsenscott 5y ago
  This idea that's going around that all sources need to be cited is ridiculous. I is mostly promoted by folks who desire to shut down free media. A good journalist works hard to ensure their source is reliable. If journalists couldn't use anonymous sources all that would be left is govt appointed propagandists. Also, knowing who a source is wouldn't help you evaluate the statement because it would be someone you don't know anyway.
  - Epiphany21 5y ago
    >This idea that's going around that all sources need to be cited is ridiculous. No it isn't. People lie and cheat all the time for all kinds of reasons. If there's no source cited it's effectively an opinion piece. Letting someone write articles from home all day long with the option to use an anonymous source is working out about as well as anyone with half a brain would expect. Journalists are not some pure beacons of morality and honesty and they shouldn't be trusted at all. They're strangers on the internet.
  - waffleiron 5y ago
    So how do we know the anonymous source (such as in this case) isn't a government appointed propagandist?
    - nkrisc 5y ago
      You don’t. So you decide whether to believe it and always keep in your mind the possibility the other version of what you believe is true.
fswd 5y ago
Reuter's isn't a very reliable source of information given they fell for another Sam Hyde hoax Feb 28th, and it's still up.. /s Hyde https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-canadians-answer-ukraine-call-foreign-fighters-2022-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-canadians-answer-ukr...
- planck01 5y ago
  As in: an organization who makes a mistake once is unreliable for everything they say no matter how trustworthy everything else they put out is? And the alternative is what? Something like: let's start believing random facebook posts, or some other systematic biased site?
  - programmarchy 5y ago
    Reuters is obviously systematically biased toward the consensus of Western elites.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- fortuna86 5y ago
  That link is dead for me.
  - filoleg 5y ago
    Try different browser or a VPN. I just checked, and it was alive for me.
- filoleg 5y ago
  I know that some important journalist/publication fell for the Sam Hyde hoax a couple of days ago, and I've seen the original tweet, but the hoax part of it wasn't in the article you linked, so imo it is a bad example. The article just talks about foreigners enlisting to assist Ukrainian military, and it lists a few personal stories of those. The only potential reference to Sam Hyde is this sentence: "Hyde, a 28-year-old from the U.S. Midwest, said he was already in Kyiv and expected to start military training on Tuesday." This is a wild stretch to use this as an example of Reuters being hoaxed in this article. For all we know, it could have been a different person with the last name Hyde, it isn't exactly uncommon. There are no references in the article to the details that could definitely identify it with the Sam Hyde hoax that we saw on Twitter.
baybal2 5y ago
The plans for the war were drafted likely in 2021, and maps printed in Jan 2022. https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t55fov/anonymous_confirm_that_the_invasion_was_approved/ https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t55fov/anonymous_c...
- zthrowaway 5y ago
  Came here to say this. It seems likely that China would've known about the plans around this, and delaying this to post olympics is in China's best interest. I don't see how people are finding this claim to be far-fetched.
  - bostonsre 5y ago
    Yea, it seems obvious that Russia would be extremely dependent on China with their plan. Even if China didn't explicitly ask them to hold off until afterwards, I would assume that putin would have been smart enough to wait for the end of the olympics to avoid stomping on their prestige.
  - dathinab 5y ago
    China also doesn't had to "know" about the plans, telling Russia "just in case" to postpone "potential" plans seems quite reasonable.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
dragonwriter 5y ago
There was also unrest in Kazakhstan early in the year that Russia intervened in; very shortly after the start of the war they publicly called on Kazakhstan for troops and were declined. I wonder if diversion of Russian resources to Kazakhstan and/or Kazakhstan forces that were planned on being available being held back played a role in timing, too. (And if so, of then those Kazakhstan forces not coming through once the invasion was underway caused additional problems.)
- ssijak 5y ago
  Russia has literally 0% dependency on Kazakhstan army.
  - romwell 5y ago
    ...had. With each day, Putin is scrambling to find all the help there is. The only people fighting for him now are psychopaths and conscripts. The latter don't want to be there, and Russia is running out of the former.
    - glfharris 5y ago
      Russia does not need allies to defeat the Ukrainian army. Given enough time they will win, even if sanctions/aid to Ukraine make it a pyhrric victory. Part of the sluggishness has been the desire for the "targeted strike", something that appears to have been reversed with the less discriminate bombing of the last 24 hours.
      - Sammi 5y ago
        How will the Russian army defend their supply lines after encircling a town? Ukrainians are armed to the teeth with handheld western weapons to destroy armed vehicles with, and Ukrainian infantry can just lay behind and wait. We are seeing Russian convoy after convoy be destroyed to surprise attacks. Ukrainians don't have to take the fight head on. They can just wait and take out the supply lines. This is an unwinnable war for Russia, because Ukrainian infantry is armed and not willing to lay down their arms. Russia has learned nothing from e.g. Vietnam.
fortuna86 5y ago
Of course they did, these are two authoritarian nations only concerned with their own image.
duxup 5y ago
“It would be embarrassing if you killed people during our show. Please kill people later.”
- dathinab 5y ago
  Also: "We are your best friend, you surly wouldn't ruin our very important show, right?" And with "best friend" I mean only friend they couldn't afford to offend given that they already had been in a tensed situation with "the west". Like in "the only nation which can still ship you chips and similar if you really mess with the West and the bite back".
- jdrc 5y ago
  there is this idea of a ceasefire during the olympics , which i guess shows some kind of respect for the olympic idea or something. Over the decades i ve grown to hate the olympics and other international sports competitions as they are important instruments of nationalism
  - duxup 5y ago
    > i ve grown to hate the olympics I more worry about how much they push whatever host company to expend as many resources as possible in what is often a wasteful way. I'd rather the Olympics be a nation wide event where a given nation probably has the facilities needed spread out over their country / wouldn't need to waste all that money.
  - hirundo 5y ago
    I've long thought that the athletes should be stripped of nationality from opening to closing ceremonies, and just compete as earthlings. But without the draw of nationalism such an Olympics may wither away.
    - alar44 5y ago
      That defeats the purpose of the Olympics. It's not nationalism, it's a fucking competition, jfc.
xbar 5y ago
"The claims mentioned in the relevant reports are speculations without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington. Blame-shift from whom? Who else was telling Russia not to invade until after the Olympics that should shoulder this blame?
- munk-a 5y ago
  Blame shift from nobody. I am of the opinion that this leak is probably true, but absent this leak Russia just determined when to begin their assault unilaterally. China isn't an active participant in this conflict from what we've seen - if this story is false then they're (sorta) an uninterested party - this story would paint them as someone who had political leverage who could have possibly defused the situation and instead used that political leverage to score a prestige hit before issuing tacit allowance for the attacks.
  - landemva 5y ago
    Maybe Putin waited until Biden removed the remaining US troops from Ukraine. Biden gave the green flag to Russia here: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/12/us-withdraws-nearly-all-remaining-soldiers-from-ukraine-a76359 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/12/us-withdraws-nearl... ' The troops -- who Kirby said were being withdrawn "with the safety and security of our personnel foremost in mind" -- will be repositioned "elsewhere in Europe." '
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  I doubt that China explicitly made such a request, they tend to be more subtle. Putin would have been well aware that invading during the Olympics would have pissed off the Chinese. He didn't need to be told to wait until the Olympics finished to invade.
jonnycomputer 5y ago
I'm not sure why I'm not seeing more of this sort of thing: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/5-102/Ch6.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/... There are plenty of trees to create abatis, log obstacles, post formations, etc. Even civilians could do a lot of it. Get ahead of the curve, and you can do a lot to slow the advance of armored vehicles. Similarly, for cities... https://mobile.twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504046087 https://mobile.twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504... Of course, I'm not there, nor privy to everything that is going on.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > BRIDGE DEMOLITIONS There were a few well-publicized incidents of this outside of Kiev, very early in the conflict: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war/videos-show-that-key-bridges-were-destroyed-to-protect-kyiv-from-russian-advance https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine...
  - jonnycomputer 5y ago
    Those, yes.
- goalieca 5y ago
  Obstacles make for good ambush points in the movies at least.
  - jonnycomputer 5y ago
    Well they probably do, if they prevent escape, as they very well might. But they also just impede traffic, slow things down. They also assist in controlling enemy approach to your advantage. You can booby trap them too. The document I linked to is a pretty no-nonsense discussion of the uses and limitations of these things in warfare. e.g. ABATIS An abatis is an effective obstacle against tanks and other vehicles in a heavily-wooded area with few roads or trails. An abatis can be constructed rapidly using demolition to fell trees. The trees should be felled at a 45-degree angle to the road or trail. The tree should remain attached to the stump to make the obstacle more effective and difficult to clear. To calculate the amount of explosive necessary for tree cutting, use the formula: D (diameter of the tree trunk, in inches) squared divided by 50, for a test shot. This formula is used to compute the amount of TNT required. The results of the test shot will determine if more or less explosive is necessary for subsequent shots. Place the charges at a height of 5 feet above the ground. The trees will fall toward the side where the explosive is placed. One side of the abatis should be blown, and the other side delayed, until the first row has fallen. If time allows, mines, wire, and booby traps can be added to make clearing more difficult. Modular Pack Mine System (MOPMS) exploded on the obstacle adds an excellent tank "killer" capability. Log posts Posts are among the best antivehicular obstacles because each post presents breaching problems to the attacker. There are no fast methods of breaching a belt of posts. Normally, the attacker will try to bypass such an obstacle. Therefore, post obstacles should be placed where bypass requires much time and effort. Posts should be hardwood with a minimum diameter of 40 centimeters (15.8 inches). All posts are buried 1.5 meters (5 feet) in the ground, either vertically or at a slight angle toward the enemy, and project between 75 to 120 centimeters (30 to 48 inches) above ground level. The height should vary from post to post. The minimum acceptable density for posts is 200 per 100 meters (328 feet) of front. The spacing should be irregular, with at least 1 meter (3.3 feet), and not more than 2 meters (6.6 feet), between posts. The effect of post type obstacles can be improved, and the obstacles made more difficult to breach, by weaving spirals of barbed wire among the posts. Exploding MOPMS into the obstacle after completion greatly increases its effectiveness. Conventional mines can also be used to make the obstacle more difficult to breach.
dang 5y ago
Url changed from https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-russia-delay-ukraine-war-until-after-beijing-2022-03-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-r..., which is reporting on this article but doesn't seem to link to it.
thevagrant 5y ago
As someone with chinese friends and family. It is a weird situation. Some are sad about the situation. Others are sickingly delighted. No amount of discussion will help. The ones who are happy with China and positive toward the Russian action. They are also the first to complain if they perceive any slight or racism towards them. They do not seem to understand that their attitude is causing more skepticism and problems of trust in the western world. Any future disagreement with the west will be explained away as western aggression and that this was the US's plan all along.
- foverzar 5y ago
  Wow, who could have thought that people from the other part of the world could have a different perspective!
- cutemonster 5y ago
  > The ones who are happy with China and positive toward the Russian action In which country are you and they?
- qkhhly 5y ago
  skepticism and problems of trust in the western world will come no matter what -- just because we are different and refuse to do what western world ask of us without considering our own interest. and frankly, we don't care about western skepticism or trust.
  - thevagrant 5y ago
    It works both ways. No one cares about someone being different. Chinese culture was heavily embraced. Most would prefer to collaborate for a better planet. People care when someone is a bad actor. Acting in self interest can only get you so far, especially at times like this.
- adhesive_wombat 5y ago
  The other confounding factor to a harmonious discussion is that Western media (taken loosely) has burned a lot of credibility with regards to China. Nearly everything China does is couched in "but at what cost?" terms. This, quite naturally, leads to the belief that criticism of Russia is overblown, and is rather the West attempting to smear another country that doesn't play by the Western rules. "Don't tell a neighbor how to raise their kids", so it goes. Also the parallels between Ukraine and Korea are drawn: some Chinese people can see that Russia doesn't want NATO moving up to the border because they didn't want the US doing the same in Korea. Moreover, Western agitation to provoke the situation is blamed and Ukraine has been tricked by NATO into an alignment that unacceptably threatens Russia but without the commitment to actually defend it. Which, again, doesn't spring from nowhere.
floatinglotus 5y ago
It did really seem like the invasion was scheduled for the middle of the first week of the Olympics for maximum shock value.
dirtyid 5y ago
Interesting shift in US blob narrative, from Xi was embarassed and played by Putin because he's a foreign policy dummy, to now insinuating PRC endorsed invasion because superior US intelligence. As if PRC doesn't have recon sats and cyber abilities to make their own determination. NVM western OSINT of RU build up was sufficient to illustrate that invasion was probable. IMO politburo knew chance of build up turning kinetic but was under no illusion they can sway RU pursuing security interests. RU certainly can't disuade PRC from moving on TW if geopolitical situation dictates. It seems US/NATO has failed to sway PRC (and India, UAE, ASEAN, Brazil) will continue to hedge / stay neutral because frankly they're not going to undermine self interest just because white people are now being shelled. So discord sowing continues to further entrench LIO block and shaming developing countries for buying wheat and fuel, which current sanctions explicitly allow.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >Interesting shift in US blob narrative, from Xi was embarassed and played by Putin because he's a foreign policy dummy, to now insinuating PRC endorsed invasion because superior US intelligence. I dont think anyone is saying Xi is a foreign policy dummy. They have been pretty non-interventionist and Putin is KGB by his own words. Immediately before the invasion Putin screamed to the world about their 'no limit alliance' and then immediately invaded a sovereign nation. If China knew, then their words are lies. Xi Jinping lied to the entire world. Multiple other chinese officials lied to the world. Worse yet, china's 'constructive' help coming soon is not going to be the help the world wants. >s if PRC doesn't have recon sats and cyber abilities to make their own determination. NVM western OSINT of RU build up was sufficient to illustrate that invasion was probable. IMO politburo knew chance of build up turning kinetic but was under no illusion they can sway RU pursuing security interests. That's just it... The idea I have is that China was aware of the new republics to be protected. The build up was to protect those. Not invade and annex all of ukraine. >RU certainly can't disuade PRC from moving on TW if geopolitical situation dictates. Nobody is dissuading anything against taiwan. If China wants it, and my pov is that they already own it... they could just take it. They aren't recognized as a country and have no military alliances. Not unlike ukraine. > It seems US/NATO has failed to sway PRC (and India, UAE, ASEAN, Brazil) will continue to hedge / stay neutral because frankly they're not going to undermine self interest just because white people are now being shelled. So discord sowing continues to further entrench LIO block and shaming developing countries for buying wheat and fuel, which current sanctions explicitly allow. This confuses me. The point of view that Putin embarrassed China is the neutral position. The China knew about this isn't the neutral position, it's the China is taking up and raising their army for various targets. Obviously Taiwan, but Japan, South Korea, India, and Vietnam. Afterall, if there's no limits to China Russia alliance. There is no limit in terms of supporting the efforts in Ukraine. But at least so far... China has basically been sitting back. It implies there are limits.
garou 5y ago
It looks like China is asking for Russia to wait for when China would be able to invade Taiwan.
- ranguna 5y ago
  Taiwan already "belongs" to China, no?
peaceagreement 5y ago
irrational 5y ago
I honestly wondered about this at the time. My biggest surprise is that China didn’t try to attack Taiwan while the world’s attention was divided.
- CheezeIt 5y ago
  Crossing open water is tricky to do on short notice; they were hosting the Olympics; they have all the time in the world; the U.S. isn’t actively fighting in any war; they have domestic financial problems to focus on and a lot of room for domestic growth, which would improve their position even more; their biggest risk is regime collapse, and invading Taiwan worsens that risk.
  - irrational 5y ago
    Short notice? China knew the Ukraine war was coming before we did. They even asked Russia to hold off the start until after the Olympics. They weren’t caught surprised by any of this.
    - CheezeIt 5y ago
      They’d have to have built up troops while the Olympics were being held.
BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 5y ago
There's ground temperature and snow temperature. Warm ground will melt and absorb the water. Snow above inhibits evaporation from the ground;so the soil moisture content increases. Once a considerable depth of soil thaws, you get the same depth of mud until evaporation, and drainage, surface and subsoil dry it out. It can take weeks. A prolonged cold snap can make it drivable depending depending on tires and weight. Out here I see the odd tractor with four or even six tires on an axle in the spring.
publicola1990 5y ago
Isn't it routine for Olympic host nations to appeal for an "Olympic Truce" for the duration of the olympics to various nations which are/may get involved in military combat at that time. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Truce https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Truce From that article: "2004 Athens Summer Games: The Olympic Truce was promoted through Olympic Flame Relay events. The UN supported the IOC in asking the nations of the world to stop all wars for 16 days during the Games."

344 points by neverminder 5y ago

amai 5y ago

Can’t China then also ask Russia to stop the war?

NFSC-HELP 5y ago

dotdi 5y ago

This is the NY Times article that Reuters cites: https://archive.ph/LOMqw https://archive.ph/LOMqw

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

newsclues 5y ago

Which is interesting because it’s getting warmer and the conditions have proven muddy so roads are being used more which is a choke point. China is the leading superpower I guess.

csours 5y ago
China is the superpower they share a land border with, and are least ideologically distant compared to other powers.
- newsclues 5y ago
  I think it’s interesting that China could dictate the timing to Russia.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > I think it’s interesting that China could dictate the timing to Russia. It's not the 70s anymore. China is far stronger than Russia, and going forward Russia will be extremely dependent on them, because of sanctions for the Ukraine invasion. IMHO, China's likely going to be able to turn Russia into a vassal.
    - jacknews 5y ago
      This would be a very unwelcome development for western countries. But it makes sense for China; why bark yourself, when you have a nuclear poodle?
- dathinab 5y ago
  > least ideologically distant Far more ideological distant then you might think. The current Russia has nothing to do with communism, it's all about oligarchs and authoritarian capitalism. China's ideology "hates" oligarchs, but they are also authoritarian, and have common opposition so working together makes sense. But that's it. Besides "authoritarian" they share very little in common wrt. there ideology.
edgyquant 5y ago
China isn’t a superpower
- munk-a 5y ago
  Are you arguing that super powers don't exist in the modern world or just that China doesn't qualify as one?
  - ipaddr 5y ago
    I think the poster means China doesn't qualify as one. I'll take that position. China hasn't achieved superpower status. It hasn't chosen to take the necessary risks.
  - soneil 5y ago
    I don't think we really have a good definition of a superpower that fits the modern world. But I think it's a fair claim that China currently lacks (or appears to lack) the force projection required to fit the traditional description.
    - munk-a 5y ago
      I think it's unreasonable to argue that China isn't a regional power since it's bullying its way through the South China Sea without any local resistance - I think the fact that the US isn't opposing China in this in any sort of meaningful way sort of reinforces the argument that they may be a super power. However, I find the strongest argument as to their super-power-ness to be their extreme infrastructure investments in south asia (Gwadar Port in particular but also their various investments in Ceylon and the Red Sea) and Africa. China is working hard to establish a monopoly on rare earth mineral extraction. However, due to the astronomical amount of military spending the US continues to commit to I think it's fair to argue the point. China might have been a super power in the 80 with this level of global investment - but the US is just going into orbit.
      - edgyquant 5y ago
ProAm 5y ago
China has been the world's superpower for the last 12 years.
- ipaddr 5y ago
  Why 12 years? By superpower what are you measuring to determine this?
  - ProAm 5y ago
    They are the most powerful and influential country on earth currently. America has economic inertia, but cannot win wars anymore with the most well funded and technically advanced military, and they no longer make things (largely). They had a good run but this is sunset for USA and sunrise for China (which started decades ago but I feel matured after the last fiscal crisis the US had in the late 2000's. America won't be over tomorrow, just like the Britain wasn't forgotten overnight after they lost their global superpower status 100 years ago.
    - ipaddr 5y ago
      Are they the most influential country? Their media exports are extremely small and their cultural influence doesn't extend globally. They don't gather respect by creating peace, they don't gather respect through charity. Militarily they are not the most advance or spend to that level. China isn't the largest economy yet. They say they could overtake the US by 2030
      - ProAm 5y ago
        > Are they the most influential country? I believe they are in terms of economy, supply chain, economic future growth. > China isn't the largest economy yet. Personally I think this is done deal and just a matter of time, like global warming, its not complete, but clearly on the path.
    - pixl97 5y ago
      US can win 'wars' just fine. In mere days we wipe every piece of hardware a country has off the map. We cannot win occupations and the police actions we commit to because the win condition is not a military one.

InitialLastName 5y ago

It would be wild if that delay was what turned this war from a route into a quagmire for Russia by delaying them into the thaw season. They already appear to be having issues with mud, and weather forecasts in Kyiv appear to be mostly above freezing for the rest of the week.

cutenewt 5y ago
Probably the last time Putin is going to grant any wishes to Xi
- datavirtue 5y ago
  These guys are tight. China has been migrating into Siberia for years.
  - geoka9 5y ago
    "Digesting" Siberia.
- kryptiskt 5y ago
  Russia is very much the junior partner in the relationship with China, and now that they have burned their bridges to the West they lack any leverage against China. They are going to have to defer a lot more going forwards.
  - celticninja 5y ago
    Yup, as sole buyer China are going to set the price of Russia's oil and gas.
    - lupire 5y ago
      Does China have other sellers?
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago

pphysch 5y ago

...according to anonymous intelligence officials.

adamrezich 5y ago
...familiar with the thinking of those involved
jacobsenscott 5y ago
This idea that's going around that all sources need to be cited is ridiculous. I is mostly promoted by folks who desire to shut down free media. A good journalist works hard to ensure their source is reliable. If journalists couldn't use anonymous sources all that would be left is govt appointed propagandists. Also, knowing who a source is wouldn't help you evaluate the statement because it would be someone you don't know anyway.
- Epiphany21 5y ago
  >This idea that's going around that all sources need to be cited is ridiculous. No it isn't. People lie and cheat all the time for all kinds of reasons. If there's no source cited it's effectively an opinion piece. Letting someone write articles from home all day long with the option to use an anonymous source is working out about as well as anyone with half a brain would expect. Journalists are not some pure beacons of morality and honesty and they shouldn't be trusted at all. They're strangers on the internet.
- waffleiron 5y ago
  So how do we know the anonymous source (such as in this case) isn't a government appointed propagandist?
  - nkrisc 5y ago
    You don’t. So you decide whether to believe it and always keep in your mind the possibility the other version of what you believe is true.

fswd 5y ago

Reuter's isn't a very reliable source of information given they fell for another Sam Hyde hoax Feb 28th, and it's still up.. /s Hyde https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-canadians-answer-ukraine-call-foreign-fighters-2022-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-canadians-answer-ukr...

planck01 5y ago
As in: an organization who makes a mistake once is unreliable for everything they say no matter how trustworthy everything else they put out is? And the alternative is what? Something like: let's start believing random facebook posts, or some other systematic biased site?
- programmarchy 5y ago
  Reuters is obviously systematically biased toward the consensus of Western elites.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
fortuna86 5y ago
That link is dead for me.
- filoleg 5y ago
  Try different browser or a VPN. I just checked, and it was alive for me.
filoleg 5y ago
I know that some important journalist/publication fell for the Sam Hyde hoax a couple of days ago, and I've seen the original tweet, but the hoax part of it wasn't in the article you linked, so imo it is a bad example. The article just talks about foreigners enlisting to assist Ukrainian military, and it lists a few personal stories of those. The only potential reference to Sam Hyde is this sentence: "Hyde, a 28-year-old from the U.S. Midwest, said he was already in Kyiv and expected to start military training on Tuesday." This is a wild stretch to use this as an example of Reuters being hoaxed in this article. For all we know, it could have been a different person with the last name Hyde, it isn't exactly uncommon. There are no references in the article to the details that could definitely identify it with the Sam Hyde hoax that we saw on Twitter.

baybal2 5y ago

The plans for the war were drafted likely in 2021, and maps printed in Jan 2022. https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t55fov/anonymous_confirm_that_the_invasion_was_approved/ https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t55fov/anonymous_c...

zthrowaway 5y ago
Came here to say this. It seems likely that China would've known about the plans around this, and delaying this to post olympics is in China's best interest. I don't see how people are finding this claim to be far-fetched.
- bostonsre 5y ago
  Yea, it seems obvious that Russia would be extremely dependent on China with their plan. Even if China didn't explicitly ask them to hold off until afterwards, I would assume that putin would have been smart enough to wait for the end of the olympics to avoid stomping on their prestige.
- dathinab 5y ago
  China also doesn't had to "know" about the plans, telling Russia "just in case" to postpone "potential" plans seems quite reasonable.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

dragonwriter 5y ago

There was also unrest in Kazakhstan early in the year that Russia intervened in; very shortly after the start of the war they publicly called on Kazakhstan for troops and were declined. I wonder if diversion of Russian resources to Kazakhstan and/or Kazakhstan forces that were planned on being available being held back played a role in timing, too. (And if so, of then those Kazakhstan forces not coming through once the invasion was underway caused additional problems.)

ssijak 5y ago
Russia has literally 0% dependency on Kazakhstan army.
- romwell 5y ago
  ...had. With each day, Putin is scrambling to find all the help there is. The only people fighting for him now are psychopaths and conscripts. The latter don't want to be there, and Russia is running out of the former.
  - glfharris 5y ago
    Russia does not need allies to defeat the Ukrainian army. Given enough time they will win, even if sanctions/aid to Ukraine make it a pyhrric victory. Part of the sluggishness has been the desire for the "targeted strike", something that appears to have been reversed with the less discriminate bombing of the last 24 hours.
    - Sammi 5y ago
      How will the Russian army defend their supply lines after encircling a town? Ukrainians are armed to the teeth with handheld western weapons to destroy armed vehicles with, and Ukrainian infantry can just lay behind and wait. We are seeing Russian convoy after convoy be destroyed to surprise attacks. Ukrainians don't have to take the fight head on. They can just wait and take out the supply lines. This is an unwinnable war for Russia, because Ukrainian infantry is armed and not willing to lay down their arms. Russia has learned nothing from e.g. Vietnam.

fortuna86 5y ago

Of course they did, these are two authoritarian nations only concerned with their own image.

duxup 5y ago

“It would be embarrassing if you killed people during our show. Please kill people later.”

dathinab 5y ago
Also: "We are your best friend, you surly wouldn't ruin our very important show, right?" And with "best friend" I mean only friend they couldn't afford to offend given that they already had been in a tensed situation with "the west". Like in "the only nation which can still ship you chips and similar if you really mess with the West and the bite back".
jdrc 5y ago
there is this idea of a ceasefire during the olympics , which i guess shows some kind of respect for the olympic idea or something. Over the decades i ve grown to hate the olympics and other international sports competitions as they are important instruments of nationalism
- duxup 5y ago
  > i ve grown to hate the olympics I more worry about how much they push whatever host company to expend as many resources as possible in what is often a wasteful way. I'd rather the Olympics be a nation wide event where a given nation probably has the facilities needed spread out over their country / wouldn't need to waste all that money.
- hirundo 5y ago
  I've long thought that the athletes should be stripped of nationality from opening to closing ceremonies, and just compete as earthlings. But without the draw of nationalism such an Olympics may wither away.
  - alar44 5y ago
    That defeats the purpose of the Olympics. It's not nationalism, it's a fucking competition, jfc.

xbar 5y ago

"The claims mentioned in the relevant reports are speculations without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington. Blame-shift from whom? Who else was telling Russia not to invade until after the Olympics that should shoulder this blame?

munk-a 5y ago
Blame shift from nobody. I am of the opinion that this leak is probably true, but absent this leak Russia just determined when to begin their assault unilaterally. China isn't an active participant in this conflict from what we've seen - if this story is false then they're (sorta) an uninterested party - this story would paint them as someone who had political leverage who could have possibly defused the situation and instead used that political leverage to score a prestige hit before issuing tacit allowance for the attacks.
- landemva 5y ago
  Maybe Putin waited until Biden removed the remaining US troops from Ukraine. Biden gave the green flag to Russia here: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/12/us-withdraws-nearly-all-remaining-soldiers-from-ukraine-a76359 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/12/us-withdraws-nearl... ' The troops -- who Kirby said were being withdrawn "with the safety and security of our personnel foremost in mind" -- will be repositioned "elsewhere in Europe." '
bryanlarsen 5y ago
I doubt that China explicitly made such a request, they tend to be more subtle. Putin would have been well aware that invading during the Olympics would have pissed off the Chinese. He didn't need to be told to wait until the Olympics finished to invade.

jonnycomputer 5y ago

I'm not sure why I'm not seeing more of this sort of thing: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/5-102/Ch6.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/... There are plenty of trees to create abatis, log obstacles, post formations, etc. Even civilians could do a lot of it. Get ahead of the curve, and you can do a lot to slow the advance of armored vehicles. Similarly, for cities... https://mobile.twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504046087 https://mobile.twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504... Of course, I'm not there, nor privy to everything that is going on.

tablespoon 5y ago
> BRIDGE DEMOLITIONS There were a few well-publicized incidents of this outside of Kiev, very early in the conflict: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war/videos-show-that-key-bridges-were-destroyed-to-protect-kyiv-from-russian-advance https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine...
- jonnycomputer 5y ago
  Those, yes.
goalieca 5y ago
Obstacles make for good ambush points in the movies at least.
- jonnycomputer 5y ago
  Well they probably do, if they prevent escape, as they very well might. But they also just impede traffic, slow things down. They also assist in controlling enemy approach to your advantage. You can booby trap them too. The document I linked to is a pretty no-nonsense discussion of the uses and limitations of these things in warfare. e.g. ABATIS An abatis is an effective obstacle against tanks and other vehicles in a heavily-wooded area with few roads or trails. An abatis can be constructed rapidly using demolition to fell trees. The trees should be felled at a 45-degree angle to the road or trail. The tree should remain attached to the stump to make the obstacle more effective and difficult to clear. To calculate the amount of explosive necessary for tree cutting, use the formula: D (diameter of the tree trunk, in inches) squared divided by 50, for a test shot. This formula is used to compute the amount of TNT required. The results of the test shot will determine if more or less explosive is necessary for subsequent shots. Place the charges at a height of 5 feet above the ground. The trees will fall toward the side where the explosive is placed. One side of the abatis should be blown, and the other side delayed, until the first row has fallen. If time allows, mines, wire, and booby traps can be added to make clearing more difficult. Modular Pack Mine System (MOPMS) exploded on the obstacle adds an excellent tank "killer" capability. Log posts Posts are among the best antivehicular obstacles because each post presents breaching problems to the attacker. There are no fast methods of breaching a belt of posts. Normally, the attacker will try to bypass such an obstacle. Therefore, post obstacles should be placed where bypass requires much time and effort. Posts should be hardwood with a minimum diameter of 40 centimeters (15.8 inches). All posts are buried 1.5 meters (5 feet) in the ground, either vertically or at a slight angle toward the enemy, and project between 75 to 120 centimeters (30 to 48 inches) above ground level. The height should vary from post to post. The minimum acceptable density for posts is 200 per 100 meters (328 feet) of front. The spacing should be irregular, with at least 1 meter (3.3 feet), and not more than 2 meters (6.6 feet), between posts. The effect of post type obstacles can be improved, and the obstacles made more difficult to breach, by weaving spirals of barbed wire among the posts. Exploding MOPMS into the obstacle after completion greatly increases its effectiveness. Conventional mines can also be used to make the obstacle more difficult to breach.

dang 5y ago

Url changed from https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-russia-delay-ukraine-war-until-after-beijing-2022-03-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-say-china-asked-r..., which is reporting on this article but doesn't seem to link to it.

thevagrant 5y ago

As someone with chinese friends and family. It is a weird situation. Some are sad about the situation. Others are sickingly delighted. No amount of discussion will help. The ones who are happy with China and positive toward the Russian action. They are also the first to complain if they perceive any slight or racism towards them. They do not seem to understand that their attitude is causing more skepticism and problems of trust in the western world. Any future disagreement with the west will be explained away as western aggression and that this was the US's plan all along.

foverzar 5y ago
Wow, who could have thought that people from the other part of the world could have a different perspective!
cutemonster 5y ago
> The ones who are happy with China and positive toward the Russian action In which country are you and they?
qkhhly 5y ago
skepticism and problems of trust in the western world will come no matter what -- just because we are different and refuse to do what western world ask of us without considering our own interest. and frankly, we don't care about western skepticism or trust.
- thevagrant 5y ago
  It works both ways. No one cares about someone being different. Chinese culture was heavily embraced. Most would prefer to collaborate for a better planet. People care when someone is a bad actor. Acting in self interest can only get you so far, especially at times like this.
adhesive_wombat 5y ago
The other confounding factor to a harmonious discussion is that Western media (taken loosely) has burned a lot of credibility with regards to China. Nearly everything China does is couched in "but at what cost?" terms. This, quite naturally, leads to the belief that criticism of Russia is overblown, and is rather the West attempting to smear another country that doesn't play by the Western rules. "Don't tell a neighbor how to raise their kids", so it goes. Also the parallels between Ukraine and Korea are drawn: some Chinese people can see that Russia doesn't want NATO moving up to the border because they didn't want the US doing the same in Korea. Moreover, Western agitation to provoke the situation is blamed and Ukraine has been tricked by NATO into an alignment that unacceptably threatens Russia but without the commitment to actually defend it. Which, again, doesn't spring from nowhere.

floatinglotus 5y ago

It did really seem like the invasion was scheduled for the middle of the first week of the Olympics for maximum shock value.

dirtyid 5y ago

Interesting shift in US blob narrative, from Xi was embarassed and played by Putin because he's a foreign policy dummy, to now insinuating PRC endorsed invasion because superior US intelligence. As if PRC doesn't have recon sats and cyber abilities to make their own determination. NVM western OSINT of RU build up was sufficient to illustrate that invasion was probable. IMO politburo knew chance of build up turning kinetic but was under no illusion they can sway RU pursuing security interests. RU certainly can't disuade PRC from moving on TW if geopolitical situation dictates. It seems US/NATO has failed to sway PRC (and India, UAE, ASEAN, Brazil) will continue to hedge / stay neutral because frankly they're not going to undermine self interest just because white people are now being shelled. So discord sowing continues to further entrench LIO block and shaming developing countries for buying wheat and fuel, which current sanctions explicitly allow.

ukraineally 5y ago
>Interesting shift in US blob narrative, from Xi was embarassed and played by Putin because he's a foreign policy dummy, to now insinuating PRC endorsed invasion because superior US intelligence. I dont think anyone is saying Xi is a foreign policy dummy. They have been pretty non-interventionist and Putin is KGB by his own words. Immediately before the invasion Putin screamed to the world about their 'no limit alliance' and then immediately invaded a sovereign nation. If China knew, then their words are lies. Xi Jinping lied to the entire world. Multiple other chinese officials lied to the world. Worse yet, china's 'constructive' help coming soon is not going to be the help the world wants. >s if PRC doesn't have recon sats and cyber abilities to make their own determination. NVM western OSINT of RU build up was sufficient to illustrate that invasion was probable. IMO politburo knew chance of build up turning kinetic but was under no illusion they can sway RU pursuing security interests. That's just it... The idea I have is that China was aware of the new republics to be protected. The build up was to protect those. Not invade and annex all of ukraine. >RU certainly can't disuade PRC from moving on TW if geopolitical situation dictates. Nobody is dissuading anything against taiwan. If China wants it, and my pov is that they already own it... they could just take it. They aren't recognized as a country and have no military alliances. Not unlike ukraine. > It seems US/NATO has failed to sway PRC (and India, UAE, ASEAN, Brazil) will continue to hedge / stay neutral because frankly they're not going to undermine self interest just because white people are now being shelled. So discord sowing continues to further entrench LIO block and shaming developing countries for buying wheat and fuel, which current sanctions explicitly allow. This confuses me. The point of view that Putin embarrassed China is the neutral position. The China knew about this isn't the neutral position, it's the China is taking up and raising their army for various targets. Obviously Taiwan, but Japan, South Korea, India, and Vietnam. Afterall, if there's no limits to China Russia alliance. There is no limit in terms of supporting the efforts in Ukraine. But at least so far... China has basically been sitting back. It implies there are limits.

garou 5y ago

It looks like China is asking for Russia to wait for when China would be able to invade Taiwan.

ranguna 5y ago
Taiwan already "belongs" to China, no?

peaceagreement 5y ago

irrational 5y ago

I honestly wondered about this at the time. My biggest surprise is that China didn’t try to attack Taiwan while the world’s attention was divided.

CheezeIt 5y ago
Crossing open water is tricky to do on short notice; they were hosting the Olympics; they have all the time in the world; the U.S. isn’t actively fighting in any war; they have domestic financial problems to focus on and a lot of room for domestic growth, which would improve their position even more; their biggest risk is regime collapse, and invading Taiwan worsens that risk.
- irrational 5y ago
  Short notice? China knew the Ukraine war was coming before we did. They even asked Russia to hold off the start until after the Olympics. They weren’t caught surprised by any of this.
  - CheezeIt 5y ago
    They’d have to have built up troops while the Olympics were being held.

BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 5y ago

There's ground temperature and snow temperature. Warm ground will melt and absorb the water. Snow above inhibits evaporation from the ground;so the soil moisture content increases. Once a considerable depth of soil thaws, you get the same depth of mud until evaporation, and drainage, surface and subsoil dry it out. It can take weeks. A prolonged cold snap can make it drivable depending depending on tires and weight. Out here I see the odd tractor with four or even six tires on an axle in the spring.

publicola1990 5y ago

Isn't it routine for Olympic host nations to appeal for an "Olympic Truce" for the duration of the olympics to various nations which are/may get involved in military combat at that time. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Truce https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Truce From that article: "2004 Athens Summer Games: The Olympic Truce was promoted through Olympic Flame Relay events. The UN supported the IOC in asking the nations of the world to stop all wars for 16 days during the Games."