15 ms·

Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine

226 points by simonh 5y ago

perceptronas 5y ago
“If the Western Democracies stand together in strict adherence to the principles of the United Nations charter, their influence for furthering these principles will be immense and no one is likely to molest them,” Churchill remarked in his Iron Curtain speech. “If however they become divided or falter in their duty and if these all-important years are allowed to slip away then indeed catastrophe may overwhelm us all.” Interesting thought, this goes way beyond Europe and Russia.
- baybal2 5y ago
  Decades of the West spoonfeeding dictators, and other "our bastards" after the collapse of USSR came back to roost. The War on Error has made the West completely oblivious to the number of very big elephants in the room while politicians were playing the War on Error as if it was some kind of CounterStrike game, and then wasted time on refugee crisis, Trump, Brexit, and various other piss contests.
  - civilized 5y ago
    Autocracies around the world now know our dirty secret: democracies are stupid. Just wait a while, and even the strongest democracy will chase its own tail to exhaustion. And you will have a free hand to remake the world to your liking. (Of course, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is its own variety of stupid, but not quite the same one.)
    - cafard 5y ago
      When the herald had spoken thus, Cyrus is said to have asked those of the Hellenes whom he had with him, what men the Lacedemonians were and how many in number, that they made this proclamation to him; and hearing their answer he said to the Spartan herald: "Never yet did I fear men such as these, who have a place appointed in the midst of their city where they gather together and deceive one another by false oaths: and if I continue in good health, not the misfortunes of the Ionians will be for them a subject of talk, but rather their own." These words Cyrus threw out scornfully with reference to the Hellenes in general, because they have got for themselves markets and practise buying and selling there; for the Persians themselves are not wont to use markets nor have they any market-place at all. Herodotus (https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2707/pg2707.txt https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2707/pg2707.txt)
    - marcosdumay 5y ago
      Hum... Democracies sure look stupid on the daily news, but those things didn't push any of them into exhaustion. Instead, the enemy is what it always was, corruption and violent subpopulations. Every democracy that falls, goes through both of those. On the autocracies side, it looks like they also are as they always were: blind by subservience. About every single time one of them is tested, the ruler doesn't know up from down and the population don't know (or don't want to know) what to follow.
      - oblio 5y ago
        > Instead, the enemy is what it always was, corruption and violent subpopulations. Every democracy that falls, goes through both of those. Or external threats. Eastern Europe was battling with both the enemies you mentioned, but then the Soviets came and sealed the deal for almost 50 years.
    - anthony_romeo 5y ago
      I prefer to think of a democracy as an unstable fixed point and requires active support and maintenance by its citizens/leadership to remain close to that point.
- newsclues 5y ago
  The history of World War 1 includes England using Germany against Russia. We get a new war with the same objectives a century later.
  - cafard 5y ago
    Not sure what you mean here about WW I.
    - newsclues 5y ago
      World war 1 https://www.corbettreport.com/wwi/ https://www.corbettreport.com/wwi/
  - pjmlp 5y ago
    What I fear is that is slowing coming to us anyway, is like watching the history lessons being replayed, killing in Sarajevo, "liberating" Poland,....
- parthdesai 5y ago
  Pretty ironic coming from Churchill.
ngcc_hk 5y ago
Surprisingly clear and objective. Just no one think the west will react like that. Or the UkrainianS.
- bhaak 5y ago
  You can bully over and over again but at some point the most cowardly person will snap. Still, if the Ukrainians wouldn't have shown tremendous defense capabilities, the West probably wouldn't have shown such a swift reaction.
  - pastacacioepepe 5y ago
    > You can bully over and over again but at some point the most cowardly person will snap. You could use this exact statement to justify what Russia is doing right now, if NATO is the bully. And if we look at recent history, we definitely know that NATO behaves as a bully when things don't go the way they planned.
    - bhaak 5y ago
      You need to be more specific. To my knowledge there were no military operations by NATO forces that were not either sanctioned by the UN or just within the borders of NATO members. If you refer to the fact that sovereign countries applied for NATO membership and got accepted, you have to tell how that is bullying. If Ukraine were part of NATO, it's unlikely that it got attacked.
      - croes 5y ago
        What about the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_the_War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_the_War_in_Afgha...
        selectodude 5y ago
mensetmanusman 5y ago
This is surprisingly detailed: “ Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw.”
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  That "surprising detail" is a second nature consideration for anyone operating mechanized forces or even just dealing with heavy machinery in that part of the world. It's as "goes without saying" to them as planning work to avoid scorching temperatures is to someone in the tropics. Anyone seeking to predict actions in that part of the world will naturally account for it the same way someone making an investment in a Saudi construction project will base their timelines around an expectation that concrete pads can't be poured 24/7 in summer. Russia knows it. Ukraine knows it. The Ottomans back in the 1400s knew it. Just because some other profession is a black box relative to your knowledge base doesn't mean every detail is one that anyone who begins obtaining knowledge of the field will not instantly pick up. Remember this next time someone on the internet tries to pass themself off as a professional roofer because they know not to peel the plastic off the bottom of the shingle (it literally says not to on it).
  - saiya-jin 5y ago
    reality seems to strongly disagree with your statements
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    Knowledge that comes as second nature can also be referred to as tacit knowledge, and is not usually written down for a variety of reasons. The ‘surprising’ part in my end comes from being jaded with how shallow so much media is today. It was refreshing to see details like this written down because it’s simultaneously obvious and true, and it lends credence to their analysis.
mhils 5y ago
As another pre-war take on the situation, I found this 2014 Chatham House panel discussion to have some really interesting perspectives: https://youtu.be/mxn_DdshwCc https://youtu.be/mxn_DdshwCc. Among the panelists are John Mearsheimer (arguing that NATO behaves irresponsibly by expanding in Eastern Europe) and Michael McFaul (arguing that Mearsheimer's cold war diplomacy does not fit the 21st century). A very interesting exchange.
- cf141q5325 5y ago
  To go 6 more years back, here is todays CIA director (then ambassador) on the issue. https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html >NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES
harryvederci 5y ago
Some interesting parts: > Every Kremlin ruler knows that one of the quickest ways to end a Russian dynasty or regime is to lose a war. > In October, Rasputitsa turns firm ground into mud. In March, the frozen steppes thaw, and the land again becomes at best a bog, and at worst a sea of mud. > The key to thwarting Russian ambitions is to prevent Moscow from having a quick victory and to raise the economic, political, and military costs by imposing economic sanctions, ensuring political isolation from the West, and raising the prospect of a prolonged insurgency that grinds away the Russian military. In this war, Russia might have the watches, but the West and Ukraine may have the time.
- k__ 5y ago
  I knew winter was the gratest defence against the west. I didn't imagine the spring being the best defence against the east.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    It was always both. And General "Winter" is to a huge extend a myth.
    - cynusx 5y ago
      Well, General Winter is much more powerful if your equipment doesn't work in subzero temperatures and you have huge supply chain bottlenecks that make it hard to supply fuel and winter clothing. None of these factors are at play here.
      - baybal2 5y ago
        The easiest direction to attack Moscow is from the south. Woods West of Moscow were intentionally left untouched for centuries to be a deathtrap for potential invasion.
        Tostino 5y ago
        Just like the Ardennes Forest was impenetrable and not worth reinforcing?
graderjs 5y ago
That's some great open-source intelligence. High quality!
bhaak 5y ago
> Once there is a casus belli, cyberattacks will likely follow to degrade Ukraine’s military command and control systems and public communications and electrical grids. Next, kinetic operations will likely begin with air and missile strikes against Ukraine’s air force and air defense systems. Once air superiority is established, Russian ground forces would move forward, slightly preceded by special operations to degrade further command and control capabilities and delay the mobilization of reserves by conducting bombings, assassinations, and sabotage operations. The Russian commandants were so sure about their chances that they didn't wait for air superiority. Or, they didn't want to be seen as an invader but a liberator and as we know that failed terribly.
- risyachka 5y ago
  Imagine how disconnected from the reality Putin must have been if in the modern world where you can get any information, to be so wrong about this. It looks like he really believed rusian army will be welcomed in Ukraine.
  - bhaak 5y ago
    Possibly also assuming that the Ukrainian army would falter like it did in 2014. Totally ignoring (or not even receiving) the intelligence reports about the buildup that happened since then. In any case, it's a surprising display of incompetence on so many levels. Possibly enough that in the end Putin's regime will fall without making Ukraine or the world a wasteland.
  - meigwilym 5y ago
    I read that he's been isolating himself because of Covid, and that he has a very limited circle of people who are allowed to talk to him (see the images of him at the head on a comically long table). If this is true and those people are sycophants, then he's operating in a different reality.
    - hef19898 5y ago
      That could explain a lot. Putin never struck me as the guy taking stupid risks and being prone to rash decisions.
charlchi 5y ago
> with Kremlin propaganda portraying Ukraine as a proto-fascist, neo-Nazi state Kremlin propaganda... I mean the US did (publicly at least)suspend military aid to Ukranian militias over their overt neonazi and white supremacist ties¹(these militias were then simply subsumed into the National Guard). Furthermore, the American military has even published a publicly available analysis of such forces in Ukraine², confirming their existence. [1] wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion [2] ctc.usma.edu/the-nexus-between-far-right-extremists-in-the-united-states-and-ukraine/ Furthermore, see jacobinmags article for more comprehensive analysis of these sources³. [3] jacobinmag.com/2022/01/cia-neo-nazi-training-ukraine-russia-putin-biden-nato None of the sources I've used here are in any way "Russian", they are all by Western sources. If quoting the American military's own reports is spreading "Kremlin propaganda", well then I can't help you. If you think there is no weight to the neonazi presence in Ukraine, you've clearly fell for western propaganda, which the linked article gives itself away as being.
- risyachka 5y ago
  There is is nazi presence in EVERY country in the world. Also in US and EU. And no, Ukraine doesn't have the biggest one. So what is your point?
- Semaphor 5y ago
  As your [2] says > However, the mobilization of far-right groups in Ukraine does not extend to political success; in the 2019 parliamentary elections, they received little over two percent of the vote.
  - charlchi 5y ago
    These groups don't need political success when they are already subsumed into the apparatus of the military, as the sources I have linked to also point out.
    - Semaphor 5y ago
      [0] seems to be the sole source of this, and even it doesn’t make any claim of power within the military outside of being protected. And that is ignoring that there are a lot of words like "ostensibly" or "seemingly" when explaining why the author is correct. Which brings us back to 2%. [0]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-azov-regiment-has-not-depoliticized/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-azov-...
jmyeet 5y ago
- rini17 5y ago
  I fail to see any credible alternative to "dangling NATO membership". It's the eastern european countries themselves with historical experience with Russia that clamored for NATO membership. In the US there are many influential children of eastern european immigrants that saw it as necessity too. Even if it was possible to leave these countries in the cold "stfu we must not anger russia" that would do no good either, many of them would likely fail under such "denied future" circumstances.
  - jmyeet 5y ago
    > I fail to see any credible alternative to "dangling NATO membership". You mean other than a policy of neutrality, much like Switzerland and Finland (and, to a lesser extent, Ireland) have pursued? This would mean training a defensive army with the clear message that the cost of invasion would be so high as to dissuade such imperialist endeavours. The Swiss developed this half a century ago [1]. This is not a new, untried or crazy idea. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Resistance_(book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Resistance_(book)
    - T-A 5y ago
      > You mean other than a policy of neutrality, much like Switzerland and Finland (and, to a lesser extent, Ireland) have pursued? Out of those, only Finland borders Russia. And they are having plenty of second thoughts: https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202 https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202
    - lolinder 5y ago
      The Swiss and Finnish geographies are uniquely suited to holding out against a much larger force. Ukraine has to try to do that now, but that doesn't make it a good strategy for them to have planned on. (The other thing that makes Swiss neutrality work is that the bulk of the resources that they have that matter are human, and therefore hard to claim when conquered.)
celticninja 5y ago
>In addition, Russian annexation of some or all of Ukraine would increase Russian manpower, industrial capacity, and natural resources Right now the only thing from that list it will provide is natural resources. Industrial capacity and cities are being destroyed. Good luck making an army of conscripts from Ukraine that you expect to fight the west (although russia's way of doing things would be to send them east to fight China).
victor106 5y ago
wow!! so detailed and accurate. > In this war, Russia might have the watches, but the West and Ukraine may have the time. Profound and true
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  It's an inside joke, industry circle jerk, trope, whatever you want to call it. That phrase or variations thereof dates to the soviet afghan war and is a general reference to the futility of trying to beat an insurgency of people who are sufficiently dedicated to their cause. I'll see if I can find the OG source but search engines only seem to want to turn up more recent references to the US occupation thereof (it's hard to find unimportant niche things that predate the internet).
- jdrc 5y ago
  also gloomy for ukrainians, or anyone on ukrainian soil
seanw444 5y ago
Am I the only person the caught Putin's "I don't care to occupy Ukraine" in his address a few days ago? Dude goes back on that, he'll have even more problems from untrusting Russian citizens. Everyone assumes his goal is to conquer Ukraine and keep a tight grab on it. We don't know that positively.
- VikingCoder 5y ago
  > Everyone assumes his goal is to conquer Ukraine and keep a tight grab on it. We don't know that positively. There is strong evidence for that. A ‘reporter’ at RIA Russian media accidentally uploaded a preprepared article saying Ukraine had been returned to Russian rule and tried to delete it. [1] Here's some commentary about what that means from a guy I have really come to respect. [2] [1] https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-article-by-the-propaganda-publication-ria-novosti-which-was-to-be-published-after-the-occupation-of-ukraine/ https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-articl... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWIYfKWSAxw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWIYfKWSAxw
  - seanw444 5y ago
    You know what, that's a fair point. It's possible at that scale that that reporter was just writing both outcomes to be prepared for each scenario, while not being aware of what the actual agenda was. Yes, it's state-owned media. That doesn't mean everything they write comes directly from mouths of the top officials. It just means it's generally biased towards the state.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      A map was shown which had Moldavia as 'bonus territory' attached to this campaign.
- tejohnso 5y ago
  Yeah, it seemed it was all about security for the two separatist regions in Ukraine and stopping "genocide". And that seemed to be a somewhat reasonable approach. But what is happening now does not fit. And seems unreasonable and illogical.
Borrible 5y ago
Well, it all came out of the blue. Since about 1995. William J. Burns, you probably remember him from somewhere, back then about this mess: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CRE... And again, who let and why did it happen?
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
wefarrell 5y ago
"Absent a major U.S. and European military deployment to Ukraine, which President Biden has already ruled out since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Ukrainian forces cannot prevent a rapid deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine" So far that statement is proving to be wrong. Perhaps they overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military or underestimated the resolve of the Ukranian people.
- T-A 5y ago
  Rapid deployment, not victory.
dragonwriter 5y ago
I almost feel with the way this is a fast-evolving situation, this needs a (Jan. 13)
ramesh31 5y ago
I've been trying to game this out. The only logical explanation is that Putin has spent the last 20 years installing nuclear dead-man switches for himself across Russia, and has taken the entire populace as hostage. Nothing else really explains it. The amount of backlash and isolation Russia is receiving would be enough to incite a coup otherwise. I'm sure that everyone in his inner circle is made well aware of the dead-man switch, and anyone who even thinks about opening their mouth about it ends up falling from a window.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mickotron 5y ago
The conspiracy theory comments here on Hacker News are very disheartening and not what I expected from this community. Sure, as tech workers we are cynical and pessimistic, and think we know better than the average person. But to think we can translate that knowledge to anything, like say geopolitics, is laughable. If I see written here one more time that civilians being bombed, and small Ukrainian military victories, are just PsyOps campaigns manufactured by the West, I don't be reading any more non-tech comments here on HN.

226 points by simonh 5y ago

“If the Western Democracies stand together in strict adherence to the principles of the United Nations charter, their influence for furthering these principles will be immense and no one is likely to molest them,” Churchill remarked in his Iron Curtain speech. “If however they become divided or falter in their duty and if these all-important years are allowed to slip away then indeed catastrophe may overwhelm us all.” Interesting thought, this goes way beyond Europe and Russia.

baybal2 5y ago
Decades of the West spoonfeeding dictators, and other "our bastards" after the collapse of USSR came back to roost. The War on Error has made the West completely oblivious to the number of very big elephants in the room while politicians were playing the War on Error as if it was some kind of CounterStrike game, and then wasted time on refugee crisis, Trump, Brexit, and various other piss contests.
- civilized 5y ago
  Autocracies around the world now know our dirty secret: democracies are stupid. Just wait a while, and even the strongest democracy will chase its own tail to exhaustion. And you will have a free hand to remake the world to your liking. (Of course, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is its own variety of stupid, but not quite the same one.)
  - cafard 5y ago
    When the herald had spoken thus, Cyrus is said to have asked those of the Hellenes whom he had with him, what men the Lacedemonians were and how many in number, that they made this proclamation to him; and hearing their answer he said to the Spartan herald: "Never yet did I fear men such as these, who have a place appointed in the midst of their city where they gather together and deceive one another by false oaths: and if I continue in good health, not the misfortunes of the Ionians will be for them a subject of talk, but rather their own." These words Cyrus threw out scornfully with reference to the Hellenes in general, because they have got for themselves markets and practise buying and selling there; for the Persians themselves are not wont to use markets nor have they any market-place at all. Herodotus (https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2707/pg2707.txt https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2707/pg2707.txt)
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    Hum... Democracies sure look stupid on the daily news, but those things didn't push any of them into exhaustion. Instead, the enemy is what it always was, corruption and violent subpopulations. Every democracy that falls, goes through both of those. On the autocracies side, it looks like they also are as they always were: blind by subservience. About every single time one of them is tested, the ruler doesn't know up from down and the population don't know (or don't want to know) what to follow.
    - oblio 5y ago
      > Instead, the enemy is what it always was, corruption and violent subpopulations. Every democracy that falls, goes through both of those. Or external threats. Eastern Europe was battling with both the enemies you mentioned, but then the Soviets came and sealed the deal for almost 50 years.
  - anthony_romeo 5y ago
    I prefer to think of a democracy as an unstable fixed point and requires active support and maintenance by its citizens/leadership to remain close to that point.
newsclues 5y ago
The history of World War 1 includes England using Germany against Russia. We get a new war with the same objectives a century later.
- cafard 5y ago
  Not sure what you mean here about WW I.
  - newsclues 5y ago
    World war 1 https://www.corbettreport.com/wwi/ https://www.corbettreport.com/wwi/
- pjmlp 5y ago
  What I fear is that is slowing coming to us anyway, is like watching the history lessons being replayed, killing in Sarajevo, "liberating" Poland,....
parthdesai 5y ago
Pretty ironic coming from Churchill.

ngcc_hk 5y ago

Surprisingly clear and objective. Just no one think the west will react like that. Or the UkrainianS.

bhaak 5y ago
You can bully over and over again but at some point the most cowardly person will snap. Still, if the Ukrainians wouldn't have shown tremendous defense capabilities, the West probably wouldn't have shown such a swift reaction.
- pastacacioepepe 5y ago
  > You can bully over and over again but at some point the most cowardly person will snap. You could use this exact statement to justify what Russia is doing right now, if NATO is the bully. And if we look at recent history, we definitely know that NATO behaves as a bully when things don't go the way they planned.
  - bhaak 5y ago
    You need to be more specific. To my knowledge there were no military operations by NATO forces that were not either sanctioned by the UN or just within the borders of NATO members. If you refer to the fact that sovereign countries applied for NATO membership and got accepted, you have to tell how that is bullying. If Ukraine were part of NATO, it's unlikely that it got attacked.
    - croes 5y ago
      What about the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_the_War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_the_War_in_Afgha...
      - selectodude 5y ago

mensetmanusman 5y ago

This is surprisingly detailed: “ Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw.”

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
That "surprising detail" is a second nature consideration for anyone operating mechanized forces or even just dealing with heavy machinery in that part of the world. It's as "goes without saying" to them as planning work to avoid scorching temperatures is to someone in the tropics. Anyone seeking to predict actions in that part of the world will naturally account for it the same way someone making an investment in a Saudi construction project will base their timelines around an expectation that concrete pads can't be poured 24/7 in summer. Russia knows it. Ukraine knows it. The Ottomans back in the 1400s knew it. Just because some other profession is a black box relative to your knowledge base doesn't mean every detail is one that anyone who begins obtaining knowledge of the field will not instantly pick up. Remember this next time someone on the internet tries to pass themself off as a professional roofer because they know not to peel the plastic off the bottom of the shingle (it literally says not to on it).
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  reality seems to strongly disagree with your statements
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  Knowledge that comes as second nature can also be referred to as tacit knowledge, and is not usually written down for a variety of reasons. The ‘surprising’ part in my end comes from being jaded with how shallow so much media is today. It was refreshing to see details like this written down because it’s simultaneously obvious and true, and it lends credence to their analysis.

mhils 5y ago

As another pre-war take on the situation, I found this 2014 Chatham House panel discussion to have some really interesting perspectives: https://youtu.be/mxn_DdshwCc https://youtu.be/mxn_DdshwCc. Among the panelists are John Mearsheimer (arguing that NATO behaves irresponsibly by expanding in Eastern Europe) and Michael McFaul (arguing that Mearsheimer's cold war diplomacy does not fit the 21st century). A very interesting exchange.

cf141q5325 5y ago
To go 6 more years back, here is todays CIA director (then ambassador) on the issue. https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html >NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES

harryvederci 5y ago

Some interesting parts: > Every Kremlin ruler knows that one of the quickest ways to end a Russian dynasty or regime is to lose a war. > In October, Rasputitsa turns firm ground into mud. In March, the frozen steppes thaw, and the land again becomes at best a bog, and at worst a sea of mud. > The key to thwarting Russian ambitions is to prevent Moscow from having a quick victory and to raise the economic, political, and military costs by imposing economic sanctions, ensuring political isolation from the West, and raising the prospect of a prolonged insurgency that grinds away the Russian military. In this war, Russia might have the watches, but the West and Ukraine may have the time.

k__ 5y ago
I knew winter was the gratest defence against the west. I didn't imagine the spring being the best defence against the east.
- hef19898 5y ago
  It was always both. And General "Winter" is to a huge extend a myth.
  - cynusx 5y ago
    Well, General Winter is much more powerful if your equipment doesn't work in subzero temperatures and you have huge supply chain bottlenecks that make it hard to supply fuel and winter clothing. None of these factors are at play here.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      The easiest direction to attack Moscow is from the south. Woods West of Moscow were intentionally left untouched for centuries to be a deathtrap for potential invasion.
      - Tostino 5y ago
        Just like the Ardennes Forest was impenetrable and not worth reinforcing?

graderjs 5y ago

That's some great open-source intelligence. High quality!

bhaak 5y ago

> Once there is a casus belli, cyberattacks will likely follow to degrade Ukraine’s military command and control systems and public communications and electrical grids. Next, kinetic operations will likely begin with air and missile strikes against Ukraine’s air force and air defense systems. Once air superiority is established, Russian ground forces would move forward, slightly preceded by special operations to degrade further command and control capabilities and delay the mobilization of reserves by conducting bombings, assassinations, and sabotage operations. The Russian commandants were so sure about their chances that they didn't wait for air superiority. Or, they didn't want to be seen as an invader but a liberator and as we know that failed terribly.

risyachka 5y ago
Imagine how disconnected from the reality Putin must have been if in the modern world where you can get any information, to be so wrong about this. It looks like he really believed rusian army will be welcomed in Ukraine.
- bhaak 5y ago
  Possibly also assuming that the Ukrainian army would falter like it did in 2014. Totally ignoring (or not even receiving) the intelligence reports about the buildup that happened since then. In any case, it's a surprising display of incompetence on so many levels. Possibly enough that in the end Putin's regime will fall without making Ukraine or the world a wasteland.
- meigwilym 5y ago
  I read that he's been isolating himself because of Covid, and that he has a very limited circle of people who are allowed to talk to him (see the images of him at the head on a comically long table). If this is true and those people are sycophants, then he's operating in a different reality.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    That could explain a lot. Putin never struck me as the guy taking stupid risks and being prone to rash decisions.

charlchi 5y ago

> with Kremlin propaganda portraying Ukraine as a proto-fascist, neo-Nazi state Kremlin propaganda... I mean the US did (publicly at least)suspend military aid to Ukranian militias over their overt neonazi and white supremacist ties¹(these militias were then simply subsumed into the National Guard). Furthermore, the American military has even published a publicly available analysis of such forces in Ukraine², confirming their existence. [1] wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion [2] ctc.usma.edu/the-nexus-between-far-right-extremists-in-the-united-states-and-ukraine/ Furthermore, see jacobinmags article for more comprehensive analysis of these sources³. [3] jacobinmag.com/2022/01/cia-neo-nazi-training-ukraine-russia-putin-biden-nato None of the sources I've used here are in any way "Russian", they are all by Western sources. If quoting the American military's own reports is spreading "Kremlin propaganda", well then I can't help you. If you think there is no weight to the neonazi presence in Ukraine, you've clearly fell for western propaganda, which the linked article gives itself away as being.

risyachka 5y ago
There is is nazi presence in EVERY country in the world. Also in US and EU. And no, Ukraine doesn't have the biggest one. So what is your point?
Semaphor 5y ago
As your [2] says > However, the mobilization of far-right groups in Ukraine does not extend to political success; in the 2019 parliamentary elections, they received little over two percent of the vote.
- charlchi 5y ago
  These groups don't need political success when they are already subsumed into the apparatus of the military, as the sources I have linked to also point out.
  - Semaphor 5y ago
    [0] seems to be the sole source of this, and even it doesn’t make any claim of power within the military outside of being protected. And that is ignoring that there are a lot of words like "ostensibly" or "seemingly" when explaining why the author is correct. Which brings us back to 2%. [0]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-azov-regiment-has-not-depoliticized/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-azov-...

jmyeet 5y ago

rini17 5y ago
I fail to see any credible alternative to "dangling NATO membership". It's the eastern european countries themselves with historical experience with Russia that clamored for NATO membership. In the US there are many influential children of eastern european immigrants that saw it as necessity too. Even if it was possible to leave these countries in the cold "stfu we must not anger russia" that would do no good either, many of them would likely fail under such "denied future" circumstances.
- jmyeet 5y ago
  > I fail to see any credible alternative to "dangling NATO membership". You mean other than a policy of neutrality, much like Switzerland and Finland (and, to a lesser extent, Ireland) have pursued? This would mean training a defensive army with the clear message that the cost of invasion would be so high as to dissuade such imperialist endeavours. The Swiss developed this half a century ago [1]. This is not a new, untried or crazy idea. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Resistance_(book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Resistance_(book)
  - T-A 5y ago
    > You mean other than a policy of neutrality, much like Switzerland and Finland (and, to a lesser extent, Ireland) have pursued? Out of those, only Finland borders Russia. And they are having plenty of second thoughts: https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202 https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202
  - lolinder 5y ago
    The Swiss and Finnish geographies are uniquely suited to holding out against a much larger force. Ukraine has to try to do that now, but that doesn't make it a good strategy for them to have planned on. (The other thing that makes Swiss neutrality work is that the bulk of the resources that they have that matter are human, and therefore hard to claim when conquered.)

celticninja 5y ago

>In addition, Russian annexation of some or all of Ukraine would increase Russian manpower, industrial capacity, and natural resources Right now the only thing from that list it will provide is natural resources. Industrial capacity and cities are being destroyed. Good luck making an army of conscripts from Ukraine that you expect to fight the west (although russia's way of doing things would be to send them east to fight China).

victor106 5y ago

wow!! so detailed and accurate. > In this war, Russia might have the watches, but the West and Ukraine may have the time. Profound and true

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
It's an inside joke, industry circle jerk, trope, whatever you want to call it. That phrase or variations thereof dates to the soviet afghan war and is a general reference to the futility of trying to beat an insurgency of people who are sufficiently dedicated to their cause. I'll see if I can find the OG source but search engines only seem to want to turn up more recent references to the US occupation thereof (it's hard to find unimportant niche things that predate the internet).
jdrc 5y ago
also gloomy for ukrainians, or anyone on ukrainian soil

seanw444 5y ago

Am I the only person the caught Putin's "I don't care to occupy Ukraine" in his address a few days ago? Dude goes back on that, he'll have even more problems from untrusting Russian citizens. Everyone assumes his goal is to conquer Ukraine and keep a tight grab on it. We don't know that positively.

VikingCoder 5y ago
> Everyone assumes his goal is to conquer Ukraine and keep a tight grab on it. We don't know that positively. There is strong evidence for that. A ‘reporter’ at RIA Russian media accidentally uploaded a preprepared article saying Ukraine had been returned to Russian rule and tried to delete it. [1] Here's some commentary about what that means from a guy I have really come to respect. [2] [1] https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-article-by-the-propaganda-publication-ria-novosti-which-was-to-be-published-after-the-occupation-of-ukraine/ https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-articl... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWIYfKWSAxw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWIYfKWSAxw
- seanw444 5y ago
  You know what, that's a fair point. It's possible at that scale that that reporter was just writing both outcomes to be prepared for each scenario, while not being aware of what the actual agenda was. Yes, it's state-owned media. That doesn't mean everything they write comes directly from mouths of the top officials. It just means it's generally biased towards the state.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    A map was shown which had Moldavia as 'bonus territory' attached to this campaign.
tejohnso 5y ago
Yeah, it seemed it was all about security for the two separatist regions in Ukraine and stopping "genocide". And that seemed to be a somewhat reasonable approach. But what is happening now does not fit. And seems unreasonable and illogical.

Borrible 5y ago

Well, it all came out of the blue. Since about 1995. William J. Burns, you probably remember him from somewhere, back then about this mess: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CRE... And again, who let and why did it happen?

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

wefarrell 5y ago

"Absent a major U.S. and European military deployment to Ukraine, which President Biden has already ruled out since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Ukrainian forces cannot prevent a rapid deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine" So far that statement is proving to be wrong. Perhaps they overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military or underestimated the resolve of the Ukranian people.

T-A 5y ago
Rapid deployment, not victory.

dragonwriter 5y ago

I almost feel with the way this is a fast-evolving situation, this needs a (Jan. 13)

ramesh31 5y ago

I've been trying to game this out. The only logical explanation is that Putin has spent the last 20 years installing nuclear dead-man switches for himself across Russia, and has taken the entire populace as hostage. Nothing else really explains it. The amount of backlash and isolation Russia is receiving would be enough to incite a coup otherwise. I'm sure that everyone in his inner circle is made well aware of the dead-man switch, and anyone who even thinks about opening their mouth about it ends up falling from a window.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

mickotron 5y ago

The conspiracy theory comments here on Hacker News are very disheartening and not what I expected from this community. Sure, as tech workers we are cynical and pessimistic, and think we know better than the average person. But to think we can translate that knowledge to anything, like say geopolitics, is laughable. If I see written here one more time that civilians being bombed, and small Ukrainian military victories, are just PsyOps campaigns manufactured by the West, I don't be reading any more non-tech comments here on HN.