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$130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours
- moneywoes 5y agoAs someone heavy in tech stocks this past week has been a beating
- mule1 5y agoOkay? And 1.5 trillion was wiped off of the US equity market.
- fullstop 5y agoI looked at my 401k and it wasn't pretty.
- ajross 5y agoAre you making leveraged trades in a retirement account? It's off 9%. If someone told you you'd have to make do with only 91% of your planned income, you'd be OK. This is what markets do.
- fullstop 5y agoI won't touch leverage with a 10 foot pole. With that being said, 9% is a lot depending on how much you have in the account.
- iso1631 5y agoIt's annoying, but it doesn't matter too much unless you're retiring soon. I suspect it will drop another 20% though, back to mid 2020 levels. Fed will start to intervene if it goes beyond that, too many votes. Its like house prices in the UK, the government won't allow them to drop.
- fullstop 5y agoI am paying my daughter's college tuition from a 529 plan, so this affects me even though I am not retiring soon.
- ajross 5y agoTough love: if you are currently making needed payments out of an account invested primarily in volatile assets, you have invested it incorrectly. More likely you left the 529 money in stocks because it's a tax shelter, not because you were actually setting that money aside for tuition. It's the same point above: this is what markets do. Investment strategies are risk management strategies. You can't just dump money into whatever is going up right now and then complain when it goes down.
- fullstop 5y ago> Tough love: if you are currently making needed payments out of an account invested primarily in volatile assets, you have invested it incorrectly. More likely you left the 529 money in stocks because it's a tax shelter, not because you were actually setting that money aside for tuition. Not exactly, so I'm not down 9% in my 529. I set target dates and my financial institution has shifted them to more stable assets based on that. I just checked and it's only 19% stocks. As an aside, using a 529 for a tax shelter wouldn't work very well because of the penalties incurred if it is not used for education. 100% of the funds I have saved here are for tuition purposes -- I started doing this years before we had children.
- jeffwass 5y ago> I won't touch leverage with a 10 foot pole. But with a long enough pole and a firm-enough place to stand, you could move the world! <ducks>
- fullstop 5y agoArchimedes investment strategies?
- KptMarchewa 5y ago9% is a blip on the radar after years of record growth.
- moneywoes 5y agoThoughts on a TMF and UPRO portfolio? Better sharpe ratio than 60/40 stocks index
- akg_67 5y agoThis has been discussed ad nauseam on Bogleheads forum and on several subreddits /r/letf /r/hfea
- llampx 5y agoBoth of those are leveraged and unsuitable for buy and hold. Even TLT trades like a stock and not a cash equivalent. Maybe you're a better trader than me but I would not do that mix unless I was in and out of the market every day.
- ajross 5y agoThe S&P 500 is down about 9% off its high from a month or two ago. BTC just crossed under half of it's peak. It's true that's not captured in the headline, but this is a newsworthy crypto crash. It's not the first or the worst, but it's worth covering.
- mule1 5y agoIt's very standard for bitcoin and won't be going away for a while as the asset is still realizing its value across all global liquidity. It's scary and why the SEC dragging their feet on a spot ETF approval i.e. an investment vehicle that a non-crypto fanboy can use (yours truly) is criminal.
- dpark 5y agoYes, it’s truly criminal that the SEC hasn’t approved more ways for speculation in cryptocurrency. It’s not as if an Average Joe can just go out and buy cryptocurrency or something. Can you imagine what the market volatility would be if cryptocurrency proponents were allowed to convince naïve people to invest their money, too?
- obese44 5y ago
- immibis 5y agoalso, DeFi leverage is not censorable by the SEC
- inter_netuser 5y agoa SEC approved spot ETF is needed for institutional access, not retail. Several countries have already approved such vehicles, and nobody imploded. Retail is already all the way in. Institutions have mandates that restrict them to trading venues, types of instruments, jurisdictions (some can only invest domestically, and so cannot use foreign ETFs), and so on and so on. There is a reason why MSTR was able to raise mountains of debt to buy Bitcoin. It's all institutional money.
- bla3 5y agoOver the last month: VTSAX is down 9%, AMZN (hardest-hit Big 5) is down 16%, BTC is down 34%.
- SeanAnderson 5y agoNetflix is down 35%, not sure why Google would be seen as the hardest-hit FAANG.
- carabiner 5y agoWhat's the catalyst for all this? Did it start with Netflix?
- akmarinov 5y agoRates are going up, so stocks are being cashed out to be invested in better yielding bonds
- carlivar 5y agoFed rate policy
- tim333 5y agoPersonally I sold all my crypto after reading Grantham's thing on Friday. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30036797 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30036797
- 5y ago
- dragontamer 5y agoUS equity doesn't pretend to be a low risk investment vehicle resistant to inflation worries.
- mule1 5y agoExcept it does
- simonh 5y agoIt historically has grown reliably overall at the market level, but individual equities are not that at all. BTC specifically was supposed to be that, and it isn't.
- endisneigh 5y agoHow?
- mule1 5y agoIt's common financial advice if you invest in the US equity market index you will get a 7% return a year
- endisneigh 5y agoOver long periods, on average, historically - no one is saying you will always get that in any given year.
- mule1 5y agoSame with crypto. We have 10 years of data so far.
- obese44 5y ago[flagged]
- 5y ago
- endisneigh 5y agoIs Bitcoin a currency or an equity? I forget.
- tootie 5y agoThe US equity market is behaving predictably. Assets were overvalued per their fundamentals and Fed actions are being taken to cool them off. A correction was widely predicted as is the eventual recovery. Crypto is meant to be immune to these effects yet it had an even more dramatic reaction than traditional equities. And while it's recovery seems likely there's still no fundamentals on which you can hang your hat and say what will drive it. It could keep dropping, it could stay flat, it could hit $100k and there's nothing you can point to as evidence it will do any of those.
- _xnmw 5y agoWhy? Did something happen that I missed? Is this in reaction to Russia's proposed ban on crypto?
- dboreham 5y agoReaction to people selling because they fear the price will go down more. Also USG are making noises about "regulating crypto".
- Dma54rhs 5y agoAll the markets are down to be honest and these swings are so common in crypto that while it makes a good headline its nothing new.
- mountainriver 5y agoBecause crypto is a stable asset to put your money into
- Dma54rhs 5y agoI haven't made this claim? I don't know what you wanted add with this snark to the discussion, I don't even own any crypto assets myself.
- ipnon 5y agoThe one qualm I have with this line of thinking is that: 1) Buying crypto is optional, and 2) It is a mainstream view now that crypto is extremely volatile, a risky investment, and yes, even a "ponzi scheme". Given all this, and assuming adults are free to accept their own risk tolerance, what is the problem? If these are the assumptions, there is none. The problem comes from the belief that there is some limit to acceptable risk tolerance for the general public, beyond which it is so risky as to be definitely detrimental to the public's finances. I claim that there are many riskier stocks already than the mainstream crypto. Outright fraudulent crypto are also already illegal under current securities law. Is it really just the concept of a tokenized, distributed public ledger (re: blockchain) that rubs people the wrong way?
- gerikson 5y agoIt's fine, it's just tethers.
- llampx 5y agoThis is on top of all the carnage the market has seen in the last few months. Everything is on sale.
- lilSebastian 5y ago> Everything is on sale. Such meaningless phrasing. If something wasn't on sale, nobody could buy it. The crypto meme of dips in the price being 'a sale' is key to hooking the uniformed new fish into the great ponzi scheme.
- xboxnolifes 5y agoIt's not just a crypto meme to call price dips a sale. Same language has been used on stocks prior to the existence of crypto.
- llampx 5y agoExactly, and is a little ironic because when it really does go on sale, people become afraid to buy meanwhile deep pockets accumulate.
- lilSebastian 5y agoIn what sense can it ever go on "sale" in the context you keep using? It has no RRP.
- llampx 5y agoSale in the context I am referring to is comparing to previous prices and future (expected) prices.
- lilSebastian 5y agoYou're clearly really into this planet destroying ponzi scheme. You keep referring to something as a "sale". You have no way to compare the current price to the future price. Perhaps you portfolio is still tulip/beanie baby heavy too. Bitcoin last year required something in the region of 134TWhs to maintain, for 4 transaction per second (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29769892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29769892). Some nuclear pose stations generate over that in 20 years of production. The world is burning, but so long as you get more people to join the ponzi scheme, who cares, right, it's a "sale".
- Hokusai 5y agoThat's all the point of crypto-currencies, they need to go up and down to enable speculation. Pump and make it go up. Dump and it goes down. Someone is cashing the difference. A stable crypto-currency will not attract so much speculative investment.
- dandare 5y agoA stable crypto-currency will not attract any investment. Crypto is useless for anything but money laundering and speculation.
- ashtonkem 5y agoThe idea of a "currency"[0] attracting investment is kinda crazy in its own right. Normally currencies don't attract investment; you can bet on the difference between them, but you usually "invest" (buy) large amounts of it specifically to do business with the country or economic entity that issued it. You buy Euros to do business in the EU, not to "invest" in the currency itself. 0 - Which crypto currencies actually function as currencies is a matter of debate.
- kasey_junk 5y agoModern treasury operations for large cash holders absolutely “invest” in currencies. They do so in the form of what cash they hold outside of their immediate needs and in what cash “equivalents” they keep on their books.
- melenaboija 5y agoWhat’s the difference between “investing” and investing? Maybe that will help me to better understand cryptocurrencies “investors”.
- kasey_junk 5y agoThe only difference in investing in currency than other asset classes is that the value of currencies is entirely relative to other currencies in ways other asset classes aren’t. In practice that doesn’t make a difference because all the mechanics are the same as any other form of investment decision.
- filed 5y agoWhere are the lawsuits? A lot of people induced to buy crypto as investment that will be sued for fraud.
- 323 5y agoWhen price goes up, the conspiracy theory is that it's all fake, because it's just Tether printing. So where is the Tether printing now? Since everybody agrees that Tether is unbacked and their printer can go brrr at will, why don't they just print more billions to prop the market up?
- dimgl 5y agoIt's there. It continues to happen almost hourly. https://twitter.com/whale_alert https://twitter.com/whale_alert https://twitter.com/usdcoinprinter https://twitter.com/usdcoinprinter Two hours ago $100m USDC went into circulation. Almost another $100m two hours before that.
- ulzeraj 5y agoUSDC is not Tether
- scottiebarnes 5y agoUSDC = Tether now?
- dimgl 5y agoI'm not sure if you're being facetious, but they're both stablecoins and the principles are the same.
- edf13 5y agoNot really - USDC is backed/owned by Coinbase with more stability (and hopefully more USD backing)… Tether - we’ll tether is not
- Yizahi 5y agoAlways has been (c) meme. They never had an independent audit, just like Tethers. They were lower on the radar because previously they were much smaller fish. They are still smaller, but catching up while Giancarlo and Paolo aren't printing.
- throwoutway 5y agoDidn’t Tether, during the last precipitous fall, just print more Tethers and prop the house of cards back up? I wonder if that will work again..
- phpnode 5y agoYes, they're busily printing away right now, as are USDC, and it will likely work just as well as before because everyone involved in crypto is incentivised to look the other way in the face of this blatant and massive fraud.
- dragontamer 5y agoWill that work if say... Tesla has to sell their BTC to you know, pay their bills? Some time ago, Tesla entered into $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin. They need that money to build cars and factories in the long term, they had the money raised from stock offerings and bond offerings. --------- Someone out there wants actual dollars, not this USDT or USDC fake dollar crap. Sure, my financially illiterate coworkers who can't tell the difference from USD, USDT, or USDC may not care, but the people who actually use USD on a large scale care.
- skrebbel 5y agoI own no crypto and I think it's a ridiculous piece of hype, but I think all that reporting (and, on twitter, all that schadenfreude) about bitcoin (etc) going down is nonsense. If you look at a 5 year chart of the BTC value, it's still super insane high and it's been going down hard once before (summer 2021). If I were a crypto fan I'd just tweet HODL like every previous time.
- Liron 5y agoYeah if you’re just looking at the graph trend, you might only start panicking if BTC drops below the previous 2017 cycle’s peak of $19k.
- Fnoord 5y agoOnly for people who invested (I mean, speculated) before 2017. Those who started to speculate when BTC was 50k stepped right into the big pile of poo, and they have the choice to take their losses for current price, or to keep their assets ('HODL'). Either way, it remains speculation.
- Suchos 5y agoI jumped in right at 60k fully knowing it will either go to 500k or to zero. I will wait this out whatever happens.
- Fnoord 5y agoDepending on how much you went into, aside from HODL, that's called YOLO. In general, people spread their assets. So for example, you could speculate some on the stock market, some in cryptocurrencies, etc. If you put all your savings in, and it goes to zero, I feel sorry for your children. Cause there goes their scholarship.
- Suchos 5y agoChildless and European here :). But I put like 3 months of salary there. Really nothing that could financially ruin me. I went YOLO on housing though... That shit is expensive.
- papito 5y agoAnd a major land war in Europe hasn't even started yet.
- streetcat1 5y agoDo not worry, there will be no war. A war require the players to show their cards, which is in nobody interest. Also, there is a chance they you might lose.
- rvz 5y agoMagnificent and as expected. We needed a 'crash'. It is what we need to remove all the useless cryptocurrencies and projects that are only there to pump each other bags and exit scam retail investors. This is why you have people telling others to 'HODL' or 'never sell' with wild predictions of BTC going to 100K or DOGE going over $1. [0]. This is nothing. This is before the banning, and crackdowns of the other useless cryptocurrencies and the tether scam. So let us sit back and watch it go even lower. One more thing for those who bought BTC at the top with their life savings: [1] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314
- moneywoes 5y agoHow do you see crypto reacting once the fed hikes rates? Shouldn’t btc be deflationary
- kickout 5y agoCrypto had its original run-up in 2017...when the fed raised rates 3x...
- iso1631 5y agoLike you I've predicted 20 of the last 3 crashes. I know people that bought at the peak in 2019 at $20k despite me laughing at them. They sold them last year, more than doubled their money and had a nice holiday. Don't know many that bought last year other than those that just buy every month come rain-or-shine. Everyone knows bitcoin is nothing more than greater-fool gambling with a side effect of enabling a lot of criminal computer activity (ransomware, sextortion, etc).
- kickout 5y agoThank goodness criminal computer activity didn't exist before cryptocurrency--had me worried. But once we get rid of cryptocurrency (soon), those problems are solved thankfully.
- andrewfromx 5y agoI can’t stop thinking about the points Daniel Schmachtenberger https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4NlLuNj0v8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4NlLuNj0v8 made in this pod cast. TLDL: after WWII we setup this system of no more global wars BUT exponential growth and the system self terminates in 2024. So the panic is getting very real now.
- Fnoord 5y agoOh, I thought it would end in 2012 according to the Maya theory? I still have sleepless nights over that. What year are we in again? Please, this doomsday stuff is just cult. Besides, we had a global war after WWII. It was called cold war, and it was fought via various proxy wars.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y agoWhat is special about 2024, what is supposed to happen then?
- andrewfromx 5y agocollapse. US Presidential election will have no clear winner.
- Yizahi 5y agoUSDC totally "audited" printing press is going full tilt to save the day. Paolo and Giancarlo are a little bit late to the party, maybe scared by ongoing investigations and biding time for now.
- mirages 5y agoMaybe the market cap will go back to it's pre-covid values From 2018 to 2020 cap was stable at around 200B$ Covid propelled it to over 2600B$ just on 2021 Now a decrease seems pretty normal
- newaccount2021 5y ago
- flippyhead 5y agoSo... what's the best place for someone in the US to invest in crypto currencies?
- solotronics 5y agoCash app, Gemini, Strike
- tim333 5y agoCoinbase? Kraken? Binance US? If you're going to "invest" I'd wait a year for it to all bottom out first.
- karpierz 5y agoI suspect that the crypto markets absorb excess investment money that the stock market cannot, because its saturated. Essentially, there are no other high potential yield investments to speculate on. So when the stock market goes down by a small amount, crypto will swing down by a larger amount, as investors pivot from crypto to the (now) underpriced stocks. But this is a just-so story, and would be hard to validate, given that there are going to be a lot of confounding factors.
- soared 5y agoWith options there is no saturation of a market, since you don’t actually need to purchase/sell a stock in order to profit from it. Supply is effectively unlimited (I’m not following the gme debacle, but this is what registering shares was also about - trading in shares that don’t exist)
- endisneigh 5y agoIs there a way to know what percentage of buys and sells for btc are for which prices? I suspect most people have lost money on Bitcoin.
- streamofdigits 5y agoThere is no much point in arguing with a cult. This phenomenon will have to work its way through the susceptible demographic, meaning that the large majority of "speculators" will have transferred their disposable wealth to a minority of shrewd operators. The masses will subsequently be "seasoned", or immunized and will no longer participate, at best disappointed, disgusted and mildly embarrassed, at worst suffering serious financial setbacks. It happened in all previous bubbles, it will happen again. "crypto" could have been literally anything. Its not pretty, it does not reflect well on society that it can be so abusive of its more gullible members. But I guess we didn't need this particular pathology to figure that out.
- elif 5y agobetter than the cult of USD. how's that doing this year? or last year? or the year before? or ever? does it even have a THEORETICAL path to value? I'll take my currently existing and computationally reinforced and yes bubbly increase of value.
- belval 5y agoIf inflation makes the USD worthless, there will be significant social instability and most likely chaos at the GLOBAL level. This is why we can all be part of the cult of USD. If Bitcoin falls to 0$ tomorrow, the vast majority of people would shrug and move on with their lives.
- elif 5y agoIt doesnt take USD going to 0 to cause social instability. i'm pretty sure we're already there in 2022. If you take the 7% inflation of 2021 at face value, and apply it to the M1 money supply, the headline of this article (130B lost) played out for USD eleven times in 2021 without recovering.
- danaris 5y agoThe issues we're having in 2022 have nearly nothing to do with the value of the USD.
- LeanderK 5y agoIn the past, I've thought of bitcoin as worthless hype but the persistence is impressive. I mean bitcoin just doesn't represent anything and can't be used much, it can just go out in flames and nobody would step up to help those poor crypto-holders. But thinking about other things like gold. Nobody uses gold to pay and while it's used as a resources, people who invest in gold just trust gold to be valuable. Maybe crypto is like gold, it passed the critical mass of people thinking it's valuable and now it stays valuable. It will go up, it will go down, like gold. You don't buy gold to use it, it's just to park some money in something you trust.
- herbturbo 5y agoDifference is that gold is useful/desirable in of itself. That's why it gained value in the first place.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y agoIt's not just people thinking it's valuable, it is people wanting it to be valuable.
- endisneigh 5y agoNow we can see how Bitcoin performs during a bear market.
- immibis 5y agoDuring a bear market, it goes down. ... was that a surprise? It's the definition of a bear market.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 5y agoBitcoin is up 2.5% today. The NASDAQ, on the other hand ...
- mmaunder 5y agoThis isn’t a crash in historical terms. It’s simply repeating previous patterns. If we do have a true crash that wipes out most of the stored value and takes a decade to recover, like the dot-com crash, the effect on tech sector wealth in particular will be profound. Right now, this is just the usual ebb and flow. What I think is interesting about crypto is that it has the potential to go to zero because it has zero intrinsic value, unlike for example dot-com stocks, many of which had some value in the form of cashflow. The two most likely scenarios that could cause a crash to zero, in my mind, are an unrecoverable vulnerability in a blockchain, or a brutal and global regulatory clampdown. The latter may not cause a crash to zero if some underground activity remains. The probability of the globe simply falling out of love and discarding this new value store like a wilting tulip is unlikely in my opinion.
- eganist 5y ago> like a wilting tulip context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
- fallat 5y agoI wonder if anyone is watching the fiat markets. The whole world is dumping their assets. China-US problems are about to become worse.
- siva7 5y agoBesides drug (a trillion dollar market) and money laundering, is there a serious legal use of cryptocurrency?
- matheusmoreira 5y agoI've accepted XMR payments for code. All you have to do is choose to use it.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 5y agoFor example, the only way for Russian citizens to contribute to Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund, is using cryptocurrencies. All the other ways require KYC and AML, and will land you in Gulag.
- paulus_magnus2 5y ago>> Investors are also assessing the impact of further regulation on the cryptocurrency market. Last week, Russia’s central bank proposed banning the use and mining of cryptocurrencies. Being a cautious optimist of decentralised money I think it's safe to say we've not achieved the main goal of having our currencies shielded from (rougue) government actions with the current designs (ETH, Bitcoin)
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 5y ago$30,000 is plenty of value for Bitcoin to fulfill it's main function - that of electronic cash. And this is going pretty good for it, I pay small amounts of $1, $10 using Wallet of Satoshi all the time - instant, free and global. Maybe at some remote later stage, when everyone wants to have $1000 in their Bitcoin wallet, will it need $300k price level.
- hffftz 5y ago
- syspec 5y agoThose crypto.com commercials with Matt Daemon have been airing the last few days while BTC has been tanking. In the commercial Matt, walks past dioramas of past explorations / failed attempts then in the end he mentions that fortune favors the brave. Gotta wonder it was a warning all along
- lilSebastian 5y agoA reminder that the world is burning: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29769892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29769892 134TWh to maintain the blockchain last year, for 4 transactions per second. Some nuclear power stations generate slightly more than that in 20 years.