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I'm just sad my stock portfolio took a dive. I started to invest into the market for the first time during the pandemic (thanks to RH). Not sure what I learned

I'm just sad my stock portfolio took a dive. I started to invest into the market for the first time during the pandemic (thanks to RH). Not sure what I learned so far.

ttGpN5Nde3pK 5y ago
Comment I read on here a year or so ago stuck with me. "time in the market beats timing the market"
reducesuffering 5y ago
Stick to VTI and VXUS? VTI is up 12.4% the last year and flat 0% since October. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
- Gobd 5y ago
  The S&P 500 is also flat since October and up 16.3% in the last year. VXUS is down in the last year. If you want a simple strategy buy into an S&P 500 index fund and don't worry until you're closer to retirement.
sokoloff 5y ago
Have a read about the world’s worst market timer: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market... In short: there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. The future isn’t guaranteed, but I’m betting on that record to continue.
- thiele 5y ago
  The linked article only looks at the time period of the last 50 years. If you believe in big cycles (like covered in Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”), expand that perspective to several hundred years and market returns don’t look quite as guaranteed over a given 20 year period. I’m still formulating my own thesis but it’s a good read if you are into such things.
  - doopy1 5y ago
    I mean if there's a big change like that, then we are all kinds of screwed anyway.
- rr808 5y ago
  > there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. Definitely happened in Japan and Europe. France and UK are only just exceeding the large cap index price from 1999 - and likely to drop back down again.
- sydthrowaway 5y ago
  I see this linked all the time. Y’know, time in the market beats timing the market Does any have a rebuttal?
rufus_foreman 5y ago
There's a 15% off sale on stocks. If you are buying stocks in order to invest for the long term, that should make you very happy. You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about. If you invested money in stocks that you need in the short term, you are beginning to learn why you don't do that.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  > You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about. People are increasingly holding their money in stocks even close to when they need it (e.g. retirement) because rates for safer bonds have been mostly below inflation. Of course the market can go down, if you get really unlucky, it can take a few decades to recover, but that hasn't happened for just short of a hundred years now (as long as since the last major pandemic).
- 01100011 5y ago
  > There's a 15% off sale on stocks 15% off from what? 15% off the maximum value achieved during a period of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further. Buying equities now is tantamount to fighting the fed. Timing the market never works, so if you sit out you won't know when to get back in, but the entity with the power to dramatically influence asset prices has broadcast their intentions and is about to undertake actions which will significantly devalue equities over the next 6-12 months.
  - rufus_foreman 5y ago
    >> Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further It sounds like you have information that isn't already priced into the market. That's awesome. You can get rich.
    - 01100011 5y ago
      Yes I appreciate the snark and understand what I'm saying is going to be like water off a duck's back to the average boglehead. It's being priced in over time. The market doesn't immediately price in future events. We've only rolled back the last 2-4 months of gains so far. I've already reacted accordingly. There's a lucky Boglehead or stonks investor who was happy to catch the falling knife when I sold. I feel sorry for them but what can you do? People want to believe simple market themes and not look at the driving forces. I'll go back to buy and hold in 6-12 months depending on the fed.
arielweisberg 5y ago
Latest market moves changed my net worth by 3.5% (from peak). In 12 years of investing I have never had less money than I put in. Granted cherry picking any specific time period is not very predictive. The only two prices that matter are the price you buy at and the price you sell at. Everything in between might as well have never happened.
refurb 5y ago
So less than 2 years? Who cares? Don’t be like the folks who sold off in 2008.
prewett 5y ago
Some days Mr. Market is euphoric will buy at any price; some days Mr. Market is depressed and thinks the world is end and sells for a song; most days Mr. Market is moderately optimistic. But what Mr. Market is willing to pay for your portfolio and what its actual value is are not the same thing. Focusing on the actual value is the important thing (note that the actual value can only be estimated). This pairs well with a long-term outlook. Warren Buffet says "my favorite holding period is forever". If the swings bother you, investing in companies with dividends has the additional upside that they generally pay dividends regardless of the stock price.
- ttunguz 5y ago
  Benjamin Graham is the best

I'm just sad my stock portfolio took a dive. I started to invest into the market for the first time during the pandemic (thanks to RH). Not sure what I learned so far.

ttGpN5Nde3pK 5y ago

Comment I read on here a year or so ago stuck with me. "time in the market beats timing the market"

reducesuffering 5y ago

Stick to VTI and VXUS? VTI is up 12.4% the last year and flat 0% since October. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

Gobd 5y ago
The S&P 500 is also flat since October and up 16.3% in the last year. VXUS is down in the last year. If you want a simple strategy buy into an S&P 500 index fund and don't worry until you're closer to retirement.

sokoloff 5y ago

Have a read about the world’s worst market timer: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market... In short: there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. The future isn’t guaranteed, but I’m betting on that record to continue.

thiele 5y ago
The linked article only looks at the time period of the last 50 years. If you believe in big cycles (like covered in Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”), expand that perspective to several hundred years and market returns don’t look quite as guaranteed over a given 20 year period. I’m still formulating my own thesis but it’s a good read if you are into such things.
- doopy1 5y ago
  I mean if there's a big change like that, then we are all kinds of screwed anyway.
rr808 5y ago
> there’s never been a 20 year period where the broad-based US large-cap equities index have lost money. Definitely happened in Japan and Europe. France and UK are only just exceeding the large cap index price from 1999 - and likely to drop back down again.
sydthrowaway 5y ago
I see this linked all the time. Y’know, time in the market beats timing the market Does any have a rebuttal?

rufus_foreman 5y ago

There's a 15% off sale on stocks. If you are buying stocks in order to invest for the long term, that should make you very happy. You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about. If you invested money in stocks that you need in the short term, you are beginning to learn why you don't do that.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
> You should be learning that stock market corrections or bear markets are normal and nothing to worry about. People are increasingly holding their money in stocks even close to when they need it (e.g. retirement) because rates for safer bonds have been mostly below inflation. Of course the market can go down, if you get really unlucky, it can take a few decades to recover, but that hasn't happened for just short of a hundred years now (as long as since the last major pandemic).
01100011 5y ago
> There's a 15% off sale on stocks 15% off from what? 15% off the maximum value achieved during a period of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further. Buying equities now is tantamount to fighting the fed. Timing the market never works, so if you sit out you won't know when to get back in, but the entity with the power to dramatically influence asset prices has broadcast their intentions and is about to undertake actions which will significantly devalue equities over the next 6-12 months.
- rufus_foreman 5y ago
  >> Given the fed reversal, it's looking pretty clear that stocks will fall quite a bit further It sounds like you have information that isn't already priced into the market. That's awesome. You can get rich.
  - 01100011 5y ago
    Yes I appreciate the snark and understand what I'm saying is going to be like water off a duck's back to the average boglehead. It's being priced in over time. The market doesn't immediately price in future events. We've only rolled back the last 2-4 months of gains so far. I've already reacted accordingly. There's a lucky Boglehead or stonks investor who was happy to catch the falling knife when I sold. I feel sorry for them but what can you do? People want to believe simple market themes and not look at the driving forces. I'll go back to buy and hold in 6-12 months depending on the fed.

arielweisberg 5y ago

Latest market moves changed my net worth by 3.5% (from peak). In 12 years of investing I have never had less money than I put in. Granted cherry picking any specific time period is not very predictive. The only two prices that matter are the price you buy at and the price you sell at. Everything in between might as well have never happened.

refurb 5y ago

So less than 2 years? Who cares? Don’t be like the folks who sold off in 2008.

prewett 5y ago

Some days Mr. Market is euphoric will buy at any price; some days Mr. Market is depressed and thinks the world is end and sells for a song; most days Mr. Market is moderately optimistic. But what Mr. Market is willing to pay for your portfolio and what its actual value is are not the same thing. Focusing on the actual value is the important thing (note that the actual value can only be estimated). This pairs well with a long-term outlook. Warren Buffet says "my favorite holding period is forever". If the swings bother you, investing in companies with dividends has the additional upside that they generally pay dividends regardless of the stock price.

ttunguz 5y ago
Benjamin Graham is the best