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In the sci-fi novel Dune there is the Space Guild that became so advanced with shipbuilding that no other entity can possibly compete with them, and they intern
by seibelj 5y ago
In the sci-fi novel Dune there is the Space Guild that became so advanced with shipbuilding that no other entity can possibly compete with them, and they internalized all the knowledge. This made all the noble houses have to deal with them.
Perhaps some technologies are just so advanced and difficult, with so many people and specialized knowledge, that firms like TSMC are unbeatable. No one can compete and their global power is assured.
- halpert 5y agoThere are many examples of such phenomenon throughout history. However, there are always economic incentives for those with knowledge to strike out on their own to increase their personal gain. That’s generally why such knowledge-monopolies end. An example of this is how textile machines were built in the US by memorizing plans from Britain.
- e4e78a06 5y agoMaking a textile factory is a lot less capital intensive than a semiconductor fab.
- barry-cotter 5y agoThink in terms of available capital at the time, and availability of the requisite skilled labour and technical knowledge.
- roenxi 5y agoThat lacks something of the "so what" follow up. TSMC is in the usual economic vice. 1) If they charge a lot and don't innovate, then there will be a huge reward waiting for whoever invests capital to compete with them. 2) If they are innovative and cheap, then they can fend off competition and nobody cares because they are innovative and cheap.
- hn_throwaway_99 5y ago> Perhaps some technologies are just so advanced and difficult, with so many people and specialized knowledge, that firms like TSMC are unbeatable. Except that modern chipmaking is so complicated that even one company can't contain all the specialized knowledge. My understanding is that the Dutch company ASML is the only producer of EUV lithography machines in the world, which the chipmakers depend on to make their most advanced chips.
- jve 5y ago> Except that modern chipmaking is so complicated that even one company can't contain all the specialized knowledge. (And capital intensive). But then again, these words could have been said about wannabe private rocket companies (SpaceX) or squeezing inside car market (Tesla), that actually turned out to be possible. So I wonder if any startup/billionaire will start to serve some niche chip market, be it capital intensive, but with some clever tactics... Falcon 1 vs currently flying F9 rocket and potential Starship is a huge difference after all.
- modo_mario 5y agoThing to not is that both examples wouldn't have been possible or where they are today without notable government projects/tax credits/etc. With TSMC i think we'll see government churning up the market the moment the US expects it to be at risk from China or the like.
- chii 5y ago> No one can compete and their global power is assured. until they get disrupted. For example, a wholly new approach to CPU design using lazers and light, instead of silicon, or quantum computing perhaps.
- piyh 5y agoOr say a next door global superpower decides to get testy
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- nradov 5y agoOver a long enough time horizon eventually every dominant technology gets disrupted. But I'll bet that we'll all be retired before a credible alternative to semiconductor chips comes along for general purpose computing. Even if quantum computers can be made to work at scale they'll always remain niche devices for running specialized algorithms. No one is ever going to calculate their income taxes on a quantum computer.
- xvilka 5y agoYes, likely they will become something like the modern GPU card.
- chasil 5y agoBecause these semiconductors are approaching fundamental limits of physics, it is unlikely that TSMC can achieve this status with anything like the current technology. I think that Sophie Wilson said that cost-per-part is rising since we surpassed 22nm, heat is more of a problem because finfet can't dissipate as well as planar, and reliability is declining at smaller nodes. If I needed a 20-year service life, I would not choose 7nm. Sophie addresses the cost rise at 22:00. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zX4ZNfvw1cw https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zX4ZNfvw1cw
- deltaonefour 5y agoIt's much more complicated then that. TSMC relies on a company called ASML which itself relies on a company called Carl Ziess. ASML makes the EUV etchers, and carl ziess makes the optical components needed to focus the light... both companies hold exclusive technological monopolies on their respective products. In addition to this, Samsung and Intel are not that far behind the technology curve for making these chips... with Intel quickly shifting to include the capability of being a global foundry for making chips outside of their own designs. Historically the landscape in the chip industry changes very quickly. I'm sure your analogy fits some technology in the world, but semiconductors is not it.
- mgfist 5y agoASML has 4750 suppliers. The supply chain in the chip world is probably the most complex system in existence. Both astounding and frightening.
- riffraff 5y ago> the most complex system in existence And by definition, anything that uses a chip will depend on this, I think? Cars, airplanes, game consoles, mobile phones... Heck, we have chips in pregnancy pee sticks these days. So, I think all supply chains for "modern" things are insanely complex and effectively incomprehensible. And this is not new, see the classic "I, Pencil"[0]. > Since only God can make a tree, I insist that only God could make me. Man can no more direct these millions of know-hows to bring me into being than he can put molecules together to create a tree. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil
- iszomer 5y agoTSMC made the long term investments in R&D and expertise and are reaping it's rewards. Just like the short scene spoken by the Bene Gesserit in the 2021 film: B.G: "..our plans are measured in centuries; we have other prospects if he fails his promise." .. "On Arrakis we have done all we can for you. The path has been laid, let's hope he doesn't squander it."
- basch 5y agoOne thing that gets overlooked in pop semiconductor talk, and casual tech discussion in general, is that not everybody needs the latest and greatest. There may be one or multiple companies making the futuristic chips, but there is also market room for smaller firms to produce last gen products and clones of older tech. As long as it is cheap and commoditized and available, there will be consumers. Think of Small Soldiers, when surplus missile cpu's find there way into toys because they are technically available and nobody wants them. At some point, things are good enough, small enough, and cheap enough to get mass produced by shoddier and shoddier participants. The market can support more than TSMC.
- Robotbeat 5y agoThe thing with semiconductor tech, though, is that not only are new nodes faster, they also use less power and (eventually) are cheaper as well. Don't invest in new nodes, and it'll cost more money for the same number of transistors.
- terafo 5y agoIt's not as simple as that. You wouldn't make chip with less than a 100 million transistors on TSMC N5. Chips have not only maximal size, but minimal size as well. And you shouldn't forget about horrendous cost of masks. If you need a lot of very small chips for something simple you are better off using something like 28nm or older node. At the end total cost per chip is what matters for such customers, even if cost per transistor is higher. And, IIRC, cost for transistor is currently lower on N6 than on N5.
- basch 5y agoPower usage gets passed onto the consumer. People buying $25 tablets probably aren’t evaluating yearly power costs. Or are you saying less power in manufacturing? Like I said, at some point cheap enough is cheap enough.
- Robotbeat 5y agoBattery life. Thermal constraints.
- fatbird 5y agoIn Dune, the Spacing Guild held a monopoly on space travel because their navigators knew how to use the Spice to fold spacetime. Later in Frank Herbert's books, the Ixians replicate this ability technologically, ending their monopoly and the guild as an entity. The lesson from Dune is that even the widest moat can be crossed.
- philistine 5y agoThe Dune saga ends with Paul gaining the throne. No one knows what happened after that. Herbert spent years improving Dune since no one wanted to publish it. He shined it to a perfect diamond. When Dune was published, it was a good enough success to warrant sequels. Herbert wrote those sequels quickly, and they did not get any polish. They are not diamonds, and no one ought to extract lessons from them.
- barry-cotter 5y agoYou have reinvented the economic theory of the natural monopoly. Notice that it's still possible to come (close) to the technological frontier, just not economically rational, and that if it costs under a billion dollars it's definitely not a natural monopoly.
- everyone 5y agoThat is one of the purposes of actual medieval guilds. To keep specialised manufacturing knowledge secret so the guild members can charge more.