8 ms·

What really raises the most suspicion of the lab leak theory in my mind was how the Chinese government acted towards the rest of the scientific community...well

What really raises the most suspicion of the lab leak theory in my mind was how the Chinese government acted towards the rest of the scientific community...well before it was a theory at all. Not allowing foreign scientists in, destroying evidence, arresting journalists, etc. That just screams cover-up, even if there was none (in terms of a lab leak.) Then Western scientists that rely on grants with Chinese ties, etc trying to cover the asses publicly, while privately saying it's possible...really doesn't inspire a lot of public confidence imo. There is a pretty big monetary incentive from the very people that we'd want to figure this out to say it didn't happen, even if it did.

dehrmann 5y ago
It does feel like there hasn't been a proper airing of exactly what gain of function research has been going on (whether or not it led to this particular virus) and how governments have supported it. I suspect it's because, despite being a "hindsight is 2020" moment, a lot of people would be angry, and at a lot of public policy scientists involved in the response.
- cudgy 5y ago
  Plenty of people had the hindsight in 2020 that the lab leak theory was not only plausible but likely; it’s disingenuous to call this “hindsight is 20/20”.
  - dehrmann 5y ago
    I meant that gain for function research looks like a really bad idea right now, even if that wasn't the origin of covid, and some of the public policy experts making recommendations right now were people who had no problems with game of function research 3 years ago.
    - rasz 5y ago
      It was never a good idea, thats why it was officially rejected and performed in secret, and why Fauci keeps lying.
- zapdrive 5y ago
  If they didn't know for sure back then, why did they actively deny the lab leak theories? Remember the Lancet letter [1]? 1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
mike_d 5y ago
> Not allowing foreign scientists in, destroying evidence, arresting journalists, etc. That is par for the course. The Chinese government would have acted this way regardless of if it was a lab leak, natural event, or space aliens.
- tgv 5y ago
  Although they were hesitant at first, the Chinese government handled the SARS-1 outbreak differently.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    The similarities vastly outweigh the differences. The biggest difference between SARS-CoV and COVID-19 is that the latter takes a bit longer before you get ill but you are already contagious. Other than that it's mostly the same old story. Note that if not for SARS-CoV this would have been a lot more serious because that served as a dress rehearsal and put a lot of mechanisms in place as well as suggested screening for Coronaviruses in cases like these.
    - baja_blast 5y ago
      Another major difference between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is that SARS-CoV-1 took time to gain new adaptions to effectively spread between humans. These mutations that SARS-CoV-1 went through allowed researchers to find the intermediate animal host within months. With SARS-CoV-2 there was no known mutation phase where the virus rapidly gained mutations to more efficiently transmit between humans. SARS-COV2 came out the gate perfectly adapted and did not start mutating extensively until many months after it spread globally. These lack of adaptations are also the reason why it's so hard to trace back to the original intermediate host species.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > SARS-COV2 came out the gate perfectly adapted We actually do not know this for sure. There is a chance that the reservoir is one step removed and that another host in between amplified the virus to the point where it could make the jump. Ebola also has this property, but it is just a bit too lethal to spread far (fortunately). An Ebola with a slightly longer asymptomatic incubation time (while already shedding) would be far worse then the current versions. With Ebola each and every outbreak starts with an interspecies jump, usually bushmeat. The idea that these jumps are extremely rare is in principle incorrect, but it looks like that because pandemics are rare. But those are just the runaway successes (from the viral point of view).
vintermann 5y ago
Thing is, that's what authoritarian organizations seem to do reflexively, whether it's smart or not. Maybe because they have trouble getting reliable information themselves - is a coverup needed, or does it look like no coverup is needed because your subordinates have already covered up to cover their own behinds?
seanmcdirmid 5y ago
> What really raises the most suspicion of the lab leak theory in my mind was how the Chinese government acted towards the rest of the scientific community. That is nothing special for the Chinese government, they would have acted that way regardless. They are extremely adept at creating Streisand effects.
raxxorrax 5y ago
I think the Chinese government would have reacted like this even if it didn't know what they were dealing with, which still is the most likely explanation. I think the general information control we saw around Covid far more concerning.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
China arrests and disappears people for making minor off handed comments about the CCP, the way they handled it really doesn't prove anything other than they were attempting to silence -everyone- involved so they had complete control of how information flows, just like they do on every other issue that has international attention.

dehrmann 5y ago

It does feel like there hasn't been a proper airing of exactly what gain of function research has been going on (whether or not it led to this particular virus) and how governments have supported it. I suspect it's because, despite being a "hindsight is 2020" moment, a lot of people would be angry, and at a lot of public policy scientists involved in the response.

cudgy 5y ago
Plenty of people had the hindsight in 2020 that the lab leak theory was not only plausible but likely; it’s disingenuous to call this “hindsight is 20/20”.
- dehrmann 5y ago
  I meant that gain for function research looks like a really bad idea right now, even if that wasn't the origin of covid, and some of the public policy experts making recommendations right now were people who had no problems with game of function research 3 years ago.
  - rasz 5y ago
    It was never a good idea, thats why it was officially rejected and performed in secret, and why Fauci keeps lying.
zapdrive 5y ago
If they didn't know for sure back then, why did they actively deny the lab leak theories? Remember the Lancet letter [1]? 1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

mike_d 5y ago

> Not allowing foreign scientists in, destroying evidence, arresting journalists, etc. That is par for the course. The Chinese government would have acted this way regardless of if it was a lab leak, natural event, or space aliens.

tgv 5y ago
Although they were hesitant at first, the Chinese government handled the SARS-1 outbreak differently.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  The similarities vastly outweigh the differences. The biggest difference between SARS-CoV and COVID-19 is that the latter takes a bit longer before you get ill but you are already contagious. Other than that it's mostly the same old story. Note that if not for SARS-CoV this would have been a lot more serious because that served as a dress rehearsal and put a lot of mechanisms in place as well as suggested screening for Coronaviruses in cases like these.
  - baja_blast 5y ago
    Another major difference between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is that SARS-CoV-1 took time to gain new adaptions to effectively spread between humans. These mutations that SARS-CoV-1 went through allowed researchers to find the intermediate animal host within months. With SARS-CoV-2 there was no known mutation phase where the virus rapidly gained mutations to more efficiently transmit between humans. SARS-COV2 came out the gate perfectly adapted and did not start mutating extensively until many months after it spread globally. These lack of adaptations are also the reason why it's so hard to trace back to the original intermediate host species.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > SARS-COV2 came out the gate perfectly adapted We actually do not know this for sure. There is a chance that the reservoir is one step removed and that another host in between amplified the virus to the point where it could make the jump. Ebola also has this property, but it is just a bit too lethal to spread far (fortunately). An Ebola with a slightly longer asymptomatic incubation time (while already shedding) would be far worse then the current versions. With Ebola each and every outbreak starts with an interspecies jump, usually bushmeat. The idea that these jumps are extremely rare is in principle incorrect, but it looks like that because pandemics are rare. But those are just the runaway successes (from the viral point of view).

vintermann 5y ago

Thing is, that's what authoritarian organizations seem to do reflexively, whether it's smart or not. Maybe because they have trouble getting reliable information themselves - is a coverup needed, or does it look like no coverup is needed because your subordinates have already covered up to cover their own behinds?

seanmcdirmid 5y ago

> What really raises the most suspicion of the lab leak theory in my mind was how the Chinese government acted towards the rest of the scientific community. That is nothing special for the Chinese government, they would have acted that way regardless. They are extremely adept at creating Streisand effects.

raxxorrax 5y ago

I think the Chinese government would have reacted like this even if it didn't know what they were dealing with, which still is the most likely explanation. I think the general information control we saw around Covid far more concerning.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

China arrests and disappears people for making minor off handed comments about the CCP, the way they handled it really doesn't prove anything other than they were attempting to silence -everyone- involved so they had complete control of how information flows, just like they do on every other issue that has international attention.