8 ms·

We all know that most people get COVID and then get over it, but using a few neutral anecdotes to deny the other issues is like trying to invalidate global warm

We all know that most people get COVID and then get over it, but using a few neutral anecdotes to deny the other issues is like trying to invalidate global warming because the weather isn’t hot where you live. It’s not about comparing all of our anecdotes.

munificent 5y ago
As they say, the plural of anecdote is data. Many many many people are getting omicron and having relatively mild infections. It is not the same variant. That doesn't mean it's 100% safe, obviously, but it certainly appears to be safeer.
- PragmaticPulp 5y ago
  > As they say, the plural of anecdote is data. Nobody says that if they know what they’re talking about. The phrase is actually “The plural of anecdote is not evidence”. You can Google it if you don’t believe me. You can’t collect a couple of anecdote and pretend it’s data.
  - exposingtruth 5y ago
  - bumby 5y ago
    >The phrase is actually “The plural of anecdote is not evidence”. I always thought the phrase was "The plural of anecdote is not data" but it looks like that is a misquote: Nelson W. Polsby PS, Vol. 17, No. 4. (Autumn, 1984), pp. 778-781. Pg. 779: Raymond Wolfinger’s brilliant aphorism “the plural of anecdote is data” never inspired a better or more skilled researcher. I e-mailed Wolfinger last year and got the following response from him: “I said ‘The plural of anecdote is data’ some time in the 1969-70 academic year while teaching a graduate seminar at Stanford. The occasion was a student’s dismissal of a simple factual statement–by another student or me–as a mere anecdote. The quotation was my rejoinder. Since then I have missed few opportunities to quote myself. The only appearance in print that I can remember is Nelson Polsby’s accurate quotation and attribution in an article in PS: Political Science and Politics in 1993; I believe it was in the first issue of the year.”
  - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
    So it looks like munificent is right and everyone that has downvoted should upvote and think better next time. To add another link to the one Bumby has http://blog.danwin.com/don-t-forget-the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data/ http://blog.danwin.com/don-t-forget-the-plural-of-anecdote-i... which actually it makes a lot more sense to me this quote than the misquote because >You can’t collect a couple of anecdote and pretend it’s data. sure but you can collect 10000 anecdotes, put them in a spreadsheet with some information about the people who said it, and suddenly you got data. I mean that is basically what I thought to myself every time somebody said the plural of anecdote is not data but bit my tongue because not wanting to get into a war over it, and now I find out the original was actually exactly what I thought it should be. Thanks munificent! Your name certainly applies for me.
    - kibwen 5y ago
      Then allow me to coin an entirely new and original aphorism, let's call it Kibwen's Law: "The plural of anecdote is not data." The methodology of collecting anecdotes matters immensely. Merely collecting anecdotes based on whoever manages to comment in a random thread opens your collection process up to massive selection bias. In fact we even have a name for this process: a filter bubble. Every filter bubble in existence is the result of people assuming that not only is the population of their bubble representative of the average person (it's not), but also that people on either side of an issue will be equally likely to offer their anecdote (they're not). Without rigorous collection methodology, anecdotes do not sum to data. (Note that this comment says nothing about the broader topic of omicron severity; I don't have data, listen to people who do.)
      - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
        maybe it's just the anecdote you wish to share is unlikely to become part of a selection of data. But that's not as pithy.
    - Supermancho 5y ago
      Pedantically, even an anecdote is data...of some sort. > you can collect 10000 anecdotes, put them in a spreadsheet with some information about the people who said it, and suddenly you got data. You can, but that's not a controlled study. The anecdotes can't be verified. So that data is not worth citing. I wish it were, which would make science a lot easier.
  - pvaldes 5y ago
    This depends on the context and the question. Some empiric observations are conclusive and more than enough, other not. Nice slogans fit great into simple problems but not so accurately into more complex ones. Science is more than just a bunch of math.
- HWR_14 5y ago
  Random anecdotes aren't data - at least not useful data. An offhand comment from the 1960's aside, collecting data to ensure it's usable is the subject of a lot of research.
quocanh 5y ago
If you're willing to dismiss an anecdote then you should also dismiss the first anecdote in this thread. If you're willing to listen to an anecdote, then you should also listen to the second anecdote in this thread. This is about more than denying issues. It's about trying to get the whole picture. Ignoring any anecdotes you don't agree with doesn't help you get the whole picture.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- PragmaticPulp 5y ago
  > If you're willing to dismiss an anecdote then you should also dismiss the first anecdote in this thread. If you're willing to listen to an anecdote, then you should also listen to the second anecdote in this thread. I think you misunderstood. The point was that it’s not about picking anecdotes that support your conclusion. You have to look at broader data collection and studies, not just whatever small bits of anecdata are conveniently nearby.
  - rabuse 5y ago
    And the broader data and studies suggest most people will be fine who catch COVID, so what's your point?
    - glenstein 5y ago
      The problem posed by a pandemic is that harms affecting a small percentage of overall cases are nevertheless staggering in absolute terms. Moreover, those who get better nevertheless contribute to the stresses that are stretching health care system and economy to its limits. These stresses cause second order harms to those having to go without care as resources are mobilized to support those who "will be fine."
      - drjasonharrison 5y ago
        In other words, hospital beds and other resources don't scale with infection rates.
xkbarkar 5y ago
Ane yet that is what forums like these are mostly about. Sharing stories and receive validation. No reason to undermine a response that clearly was comparing one anecdote with another. Considering how children have been amazingly spared the effects of sars-cov-2 it is hard to see that they seem to have held the lions share of the mandates to slow the inevitable spread. And still do as the vaccined did not provide the high immuinty they initially promised. The vaccines do an amazing job reducing hospitalizations among the vulnerable, it is not clear they have much benefit for the toddlers, and may even be harmful. Lets move on.
- kimmeld 5y ago
  My children’s health are a risk you are willing to take. That’s what you are trying to say.
  - austhrow743 5y ago
    We risk your children’s health for all sorts of things and it would be absurd if we didn’t.
  - DiggyJohnson 5y ago
    Yes, literally. We do the same when we discuss traffic laws. We're all part of the same society, you have the right to take whatever action is in your child's best interest, but that DOES NOT necessarily imply that everyone else must get in alignment with what you think is best. The city doesn't need to install roundabouts at every intersection on your school route because you knows it to be safer than the traffic lights. That's ridiculous. Maybe they should, but its a discussion that will require you to think about resources and about risk. Externalities are real, and as such the discussion is about acceptable risk. So yes, in the most ridiculous and obvious sense it includes your kids, but you're assuming a lot too, and I question whether you're willing to reason critically - rather than emotionally - about school policy.
    - notch656a 5y ago
      That's true, but rarely are kids thrown in the woodchipper for the survival of old people. And I worry that's what has happened to my toddler (infant when covid started) as a result of mask mandates and lessened social exposure during the most neuroplastic years of her life where speech and socialization starts forming. I do legitimately think some old/vulnerable lives were saved at the expense of suppressing childhoods, but it's certainly an anachronistic prioritization of life.
meatsauce 5y ago
I mean 98% recover and many don't even have symptoms. The outliers are the ones getting seriously ill.
- Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
  I think the better statistic that is often ignored are how many end up in the ICU.
  - gilbetron 5y ago
    Which looks to be between 0.025%-0.4% putting these two sites together, depending on the state: https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/ https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19... https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm
    - skyde 5y ago
      then why are all ICU at 100% capacity right now ?
      - Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
        The odds of getting put into the ICU might be low, but the total number of cases is extremely high. The alpha variant peaked at 300,000 cases/day with a highest 7-day average of 260,000 cases in the USA. Omicron has hit over 1 million cases in a day with a 7-day average of 900,000. Roll a 100-sided die enough times, and eventually you will get a LOT of ones.
      - _-david-_ 5y ago
        All the ICUs are not at 100% right now.
      - freewinz 5y ago
        Are people really this misinformed? Get a reality check and stop believing the clickbait. There is zero chance that 100% of ICUs are at 100% capacity.
gilbetron 5y ago
It's the opposite, actually. People worried about Covid with kids are the ones saying that there is no global warming because it isn't hot by them. Statistics are backing up how little effect Covid has on kids (fortunately) - it is anecdotes that are scaring people.
- neuronic 5y ago
  ? Consider that SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to increase risk for newly diagnosed diabetes in children: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm It's clearly a very systemic disease affecting almost all organs and long term effects are impossible to tell right now (as opposed to the vaccine btw which cannot by definition create random effects some years later).
  - jdminhbg 5y ago
    > Consider that SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to increase risk for newly diagnosed diabetes in children This hasn't been shown at all, that study can only show that diabetes and Covid are correlated. There's no reason to think the causation doesn't run in the opposite direction.
    - neuronic 5y ago
      You saying "it hasn't been shown" doesn't mean it hasn't been shown. > What are the implications for public health practice? > The increased diabetes risk among persons aged <18 years following COVID-19 highlights the importance of COVID-19 prevention strategies in this age group, including vaccination for all eligible persons and chronic disease prevention and treatment.
      - jdminhbg 5y ago
        Please note the word “following,” which does not mean “caused by.” The study was not designed to show causation, and it does not do so, the CDC’s irresponsible communication strategy notwithstanding.

munificent 5y ago

As they say, the plural of anecdote is data. Many many many people are getting omicron and having relatively mild infections. It is not the same variant. That doesn't mean it's 100% safe, obviously, but it certainly appears to be safeer.

PragmaticPulp 5y ago
> As they say, the plural of anecdote is data. Nobody says that if they know what they’re talking about. The phrase is actually “The plural of anecdote is not evidence”. You can Google it if you don’t believe me. You can’t collect a couple of anecdote and pretend it’s data.
- exposingtruth 5y ago
- bumby 5y ago
  >The phrase is actually “The plural of anecdote is not evidence”. I always thought the phrase was "The plural of anecdote is not data" but it looks like that is a misquote: Nelson W. Polsby PS, Vol. 17, No. 4. (Autumn, 1984), pp. 778-781. Pg. 779: Raymond Wolfinger’s brilliant aphorism “the plural of anecdote is data” never inspired a better or more skilled researcher. I e-mailed Wolfinger last year and got the following response from him: “I said ‘The plural of anecdote is data’ some time in the 1969-70 academic year while teaching a graduate seminar at Stanford. The occasion was a student’s dismissal of a simple factual statement–by another student or me–as a mere anecdote. The quotation was my rejoinder. Since then I have missed few opportunities to quote myself. The only appearance in print that I can remember is Nelson Polsby’s accurate quotation and attribution in an article in PS: Political Science and Politics in 1993; I believe it was in the first issue of the year.”
- bryanrasmussen 5y ago
  So it looks like munificent is right and everyone that has downvoted should upvote and think better next time. To add another link to the one Bumby has http://blog.danwin.com/don-t-forget-the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data/ http://blog.danwin.com/don-t-forget-the-plural-of-anecdote-i... which actually it makes a lot more sense to me this quote than the misquote because >You can’t collect a couple of anecdote and pretend it’s data. sure but you can collect 10000 anecdotes, put them in a spreadsheet with some information about the people who said it, and suddenly you got data. I mean that is basically what I thought to myself every time somebody said the plural of anecdote is not data but bit my tongue because not wanting to get into a war over it, and now I find out the original was actually exactly what I thought it should be. Thanks munificent! Your name certainly applies for me.
  - kibwen 5y ago
    Then allow me to coin an entirely new and original aphorism, let's call it Kibwen's Law: "The plural of anecdote is not data." The methodology of collecting anecdotes matters immensely. Merely collecting anecdotes based on whoever manages to comment in a random thread opens your collection process up to massive selection bias. In fact we even have a name for this process: a filter bubble. Every filter bubble in existence is the result of people assuming that not only is the population of their bubble representative of the average person (it's not), but also that people on either side of an issue will be equally likely to offer their anecdote (they're not). Without rigorous collection methodology, anecdotes do not sum to data. (Note that this comment says nothing about the broader topic of omicron severity; I don't have data, listen to people who do.)
    - bryanrasmussen 5y ago
      maybe it's just the anecdote you wish to share is unlikely to become part of a selection of data. But that's not as pithy.
  - Supermancho 5y ago
    Pedantically, even an anecdote is data...of some sort. > you can collect 10000 anecdotes, put them in a spreadsheet with some information about the people who said it, and suddenly you got data. You can, but that's not a controlled study. The anecdotes can't be verified. So that data is not worth citing. I wish it were, which would make science a lot easier.
- pvaldes 5y ago
  This depends on the context and the question. Some empiric observations are conclusive and more than enough, other not. Nice slogans fit great into simple problems but not so accurately into more complex ones. Science is more than just a bunch of math.
HWR_14 5y ago
Random anecdotes aren't data - at least not useful data. An offhand comment from the 1960's aside, collecting data to ensure it's usable is the subject of a lot of research.

quocanh 5y ago

If you're willing to dismiss an anecdote then you should also dismiss the first anecdote in this thread. If you're willing to listen to an anecdote, then you should also listen to the second anecdote in this thread. This is about more than denying issues. It's about trying to get the whole picture. Ignoring any anecdotes you don't agree with doesn't help you get the whole picture.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
PragmaticPulp 5y ago
> If you're willing to dismiss an anecdote then you should also dismiss the first anecdote in this thread. If you're willing to listen to an anecdote, then you should also listen to the second anecdote in this thread. I think you misunderstood. The point was that it’s not about picking anecdotes that support your conclusion. You have to look at broader data collection and studies, not just whatever small bits of anecdata are conveniently nearby.
- rabuse 5y ago
  And the broader data and studies suggest most people will be fine who catch COVID, so what's your point?
  - glenstein 5y ago
    The problem posed by a pandemic is that harms affecting a small percentage of overall cases are nevertheless staggering in absolute terms. Moreover, those who get better nevertheless contribute to the stresses that are stretching health care system and economy to its limits. These stresses cause second order harms to those having to go without care as resources are mobilized to support those who "will be fine."
    - drjasonharrison 5y ago
      In other words, hospital beds and other resources don't scale with infection rates.

xkbarkar 5y ago

Ane yet that is what forums like these are mostly about. Sharing stories and receive validation. No reason to undermine a response that clearly was comparing one anecdote with another. Considering how children have been amazingly spared the effects of sars-cov-2 it is hard to see that they seem to have held the lions share of the mandates to slow the inevitable spread. And still do as the vaccined did not provide the high immuinty they initially promised. The vaccines do an amazing job reducing hospitalizations among the vulnerable, it is not clear they have much benefit for the toddlers, and may even be harmful. Lets move on.

kimmeld 5y ago
My children’s health are a risk you are willing to take. That’s what you are trying to say.
- austhrow743 5y ago
  We risk your children’s health for all sorts of things and it would be absurd if we didn’t.
- DiggyJohnson 5y ago
  Yes, literally. We do the same when we discuss traffic laws. We're all part of the same society, you have the right to take whatever action is in your child's best interest, but that DOES NOT necessarily imply that everyone else must get in alignment with what you think is best. The city doesn't need to install roundabouts at every intersection on your school route because you knows it to be safer than the traffic lights. That's ridiculous. Maybe they should, but its a discussion that will require you to think about resources and about risk. Externalities are real, and as such the discussion is about acceptable risk. So yes, in the most ridiculous and obvious sense it includes your kids, but you're assuming a lot too, and I question whether you're willing to reason critically - rather than emotionally - about school policy.
  - notch656a 5y ago
    That's true, but rarely are kids thrown in the woodchipper for the survival of old people. And I worry that's what has happened to my toddler (infant when covid started) as a result of mask mandates and lessened social exposure during the most neuroplastic years of her life where speech and socialization starts forming. I do legitimately think some old/vulnerable lives were saved at the expense of suppressing childhoods, but it's certainly an anachronistic prioritization of life.

meatsauce 5y ago

I mean 98% recover and many don't even have symptoms. The outliers are the ones getting seriously ill.

Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
I think the better statistic that is often ignored are how many end up in the ICU.
- gilbetron 5y ago
  Which looks to be between 0.025%-0.4% putting these two sites together, depending on the state: https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/ https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19... https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm
  - skyde 5y ago
    then why are all ICU at 100% capacity right now ?
    - Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
      The odds of getting put into the ICU might be low, but the total number of cases is extremely high. The alpha variant peaked at 300,000 cases/day with a highest 7-day average of 260,000 cases in the USA. Omicron has hit over 1 million cases in a day with a 7-day average of 900,000. Roll a 100-sided die enough times, and eventually you will get a LOT of ones.
    - _-david-_ 5y ago
      All the ICUs are not at 100% right now.
    - freewinz 5y ago
      Are people really this misinformed? Get a reality check and stop believing the clickbait. There is zero chance that 100% of ICUs are at 100% capacity.

gilbetron 5y ago

It's the opposite, actually. People worried about Covid with kids are the ones saying that there is no global warming because it isn't hot by them. Statistics are backing up how little effect Covid has on kids (fortunately) - it is anecdotes that are scaring people.

neuronic 5y ago
? Consider that SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to increase risk for newly diagnosed diabetes in children: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e2.htm It's clearly a very systemic disease affecting almost all organs and long term effects are impossible to tell right now (as opposed to the vaccine btw which cannot by definition create random effects some years later).
- jdminhbg 5y ago
  > Consider that SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to increase risk for newly diagnosed diabetes in children This hasn't been shown at all, that study can only show that diabetes and Covid are correlated. There's no reason to think the causation doesn't run in the opposite direction.
  - neuronic 5y ago
    You saying "it hasn't been shown" doesn't mean it hasn't been shown. > What are the implications for public health practice? > The increased diabetes risk among persons aged <18 years following COVID-19 highlights the importance of COVID-19 prevention strategies in this age group, including vaccination for all eligible persons and chronic disease prevention and treatment.
    - jdminhbg 5y ago
      Please note the word “following,” which does not mean “caused by.” The study was not designed to show causation, and it does not do so, the CDC’s irresponsible communication strategy notwithstanding.