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No one died in China of Covid since April 15th 2020

53 points by rep_movsd 5y ago

footlose_3815 5y ago
[dead]
rep_movsd 5y ago
This is a sarcastic post obviously, but I want to know how China gets away with this lies and why a site like worldometer would post this as facts.
- wand3r 5y ago
  > why a site like worldometer would post this as facts. I love worldometers. What would you expect them to do? They aggregate official stats. I don’t expect them to use a statistical model or something, I want the real reported numbers. The only thing they could really do in my opinion is put an asterisk on the numbers that are wildly unbelievable with a small disclaimer or something. I don’t check the Chinese stats there so maybe they have done this already? Other than that, what would you expect them to do? They can’t have country specific heuristics and different methodologies even if we “know” the count is wrong.
- otherme123 5y ago
  Why wouldn't they? Groups more important than worldodometer pledged to China shenanigans. I would do exactly the same: publish the official data and let the user deduce that it's total bullshit. That damages the China image ever more. The past year we were on the brink of buying some lab equipment from a chinese seller, but the numbers were so suspiciously good and their guarantees so thin (in case of underperforming) that we end up buying from a local seller at twice the price. They lie by default and it damages in the long run.
- cxr 5y ago
  > This is a sarcastic post obviously Well, stop. You also submitted an editorialized title. Don't do that, either.
- kunagi7 5y ago
  Well, Worldometer just shows the official data. They can hide the fact that North Korea has no data at all but China is way to big to do it. If the official data is a plain lie there's nothing they can do. If they put a banner warning about it they could end up blocked by the Chinese Firewall, and with a massive DDOS attack against them from a random offended Chinese service.
- iqanq 5y ago
  They post every country data as facts, but they don't do any fact checking themselves. It's not like I believe the western data that much either.
johan_larson 5y ago
I don't for a minute believe this number is actually true. But on the other hand, it seems like a very strange lie to tell, because it's so unbelievable. It would be far easier to believe a claim that COVID deaths are simply very rare but not actually non-existent. That would be the sensible lie, the canny lie. It's tempting to believe that the Chinese government just doesn't give a damn what people think, and are therefore willing to say anything at all. But if they really don't care, why lie in the first place? The only interpretation that I can come up with that makes sense is that a) the government of China is reluctant to admit to any fault at all, b) the actual number of deaths is low but not impressively low, and c) the Chinese press (including social media) is very tightly controlled, and d) by b and c the government can get away with saying there are no deaths without looking like idiots.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  Somehow this hasn't really sunk in in the West, but China basically ended its pandemic by April 2020. There has been no sustained local transmission within China since then. There are small clusters of cases that occur when the virus somehow breaches the border protections (e.g., 3-week quarantine for all incoming passengers). There's a very quick reaction whenever this happens, and the outbreak is ended within days to weeks. The Xi'an outbreak, with 2,000 cases in total, is the most serious outbreak China has had since April 2020. There are small cities in the US with more cases than that every day. Exponential growth is brutal, so China can remain at ultra-low numbers, as long as it detects and contains outbreaks early. That's why there have been only a handful of deaths (contrary to the title of this thread, there have been a few reported deaths) since April 2020. There are plenty of people here on Hacker News who either live in China or have friends/family there. It just seems to be the people who don't have any contact with the country who have a hard time believing what's going on in China. I sort of understand: China's pandemic experience has been so different from that of the West that it can be difficult to accept as reality.
- rwmj 5y ago
  I think it's the Russian tactic of trying to coarsen debate with the aim of people not knowing what to believe so they tune out of politics ("all politicians lie").
throwawaymanbot 5y ago
RspecMAuthortah 5y ago
After so many "conspiracy theories" that later became true, I now tend to put more weight on the idea that this is a bio-weapon or lab leak and China knew the solution or actively even tried spreading it throughout the world. For example to influence the outcome of 2020 election.
- throw3434053 5y ago
  Because the powers at be in the US loved trump? Don't look at China, think about a US leak. China's government structure is built to micromanage viral outbreaks in a successful manner.
nazgulsenpai 5y ago
From what I can surmise, local government has a "zero case" mandate from Beijing where they're supposed to do anything possible to prevent COVID cases, and out of fear of the retribution from the party or the desire to be seen favorably, they find a way to report zero cases.
- yorwba 5y ago
  Only 11 provinces are reporting zero current cases: https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121
  - nazgulsenpai 5y ago
    Apologies, I meant to say zero cases where COVID is the cause of death, but I didn't make that clear.
    - yorwba 5y ago
      Since they announce a handful of cases every day, they might as well also announce the small share of those that end with the patient dying. The last time that happened (on January 25, 2021, so the headline of the submission here is incorrect) it was just one of many statistics in the report the next day: http://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/jlzxd/yqtb/202101/t20210126_7925433.html http://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/jlzxd/yqtb/202101/t20210126_79254...
javagram 5y ago
China’s zero COVID efforts and policy seem to be real, not made up. However given there have been a number of small outbreaks they have either been very lucky it has never spread to a vulnerable person or they have covered up several deaths over the last year. Western journalists and businessmen are on the ground throughout the country (not to mention family ties and communications between expat Chinese and their families) and if there were a major outbreak of COVID killing dozens or hundreds, i dont think they’d be able to cover it up.
- 18237198371q 5y ago
  How is zero covid an achievable policy for an endemic, highly contagious virus? The whole idea to me seems impossible.
  - javagram 5y ago
    Zero COVID prevented the virus from becoming endemic in China (look up the definition of endemic). Once it does, you’re right that it seems like putting the genie back in the bottle is impossible - once COVID has spread to wildlife like deer and cats it seems hard to imagine a method of wiping it out within that country’s borders. We know several other countries with less strict policies than China maintained zero COVID for quite some time, or states within those countries (Australia for instance had COVID outbreaks they successfully confined to one or two states). Once delta hit, it became too difficult for those countries to continue, but we can see China is more authoritarian and their stricter measures may still be effective for now.
    - maxerickson 5y ago
      Isn't there still a lot of uncertainty about how the virus will look in wildlife? If deer get it and get good immunity when they recover, they won't necessarily be a long term reservoir, and so on.
    - 18237198371q 5y ago
      Short term zero COVID may be achievable. I am not disputing that. However, China must maintain vigilance literally forever. That is why I don't find it a realistic policy.
18237198371q 5y ago
In other news, 98% of Chinese citizens trust their government. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/05/did-pandemic-shake-chinese-citizens-trust-their-government/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/05/did-pande...
- MontyCarloHall 5y ago
  Interviewer: “how do you feel about your government?” Chinese interviewee: “I can’t complain!”
  - hprotagonist 5y ago
    “Everything is fine back home in the old country, except i can’t find a store that sells any green ink!”
    - mijoharas 5y ago
      sorry to ask, as I'm sure it's just me not getting the joke, but are you referring to "green ink" in terms of this[0] or something else? [0] https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Green_ink https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Green_ink
      - fionnoh 5y ago
        It's (I believe) a reference to an old Communist joke. A guy was sent from East Germany to work in Siberia. He knew his mail would be read by censors, so he told his friends: “Let’s establish a code. If a letter you get from me is written in blue ink, it is true what I say. If it is written in red ink, it is false.” After a month, his friends get the first letter. Everything is in blue. It says, this letter: “Everything is wonderful here. Stores are full of good food. Movie theaters show good films from the west. Apartments are large and luxurious. The only thing you cannot buy is red ink.”
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
- 5y ago
greatjack613 5y ago
- dang 5y ago
  I can't imagine that anybody here is taking it seriously. --- Please don't use HN for nationalistic battle. It's not what this site is for, and it destroys what it is for. We've already had to ask you this several times, and you've continued to do it quite badly, e.g.: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29595653 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29595653 (Dec 2021) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29273660 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29273660 (Nov 2021) Continuing like that will get you banned here. I don't want to ban you, so please don't continue like that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
savant_penguin 5y ago
If your job and very possibility freedom depended on a "zero" in a row inside some spreadsheet you'd make goddam sure there's going to be a zero in there
- Arnt 5y ago
  Would you go as far as quarantining entire blocks of 500 apartments based on one positive covid test, and not letting people out even to buy food? What the Chinese are doing there isn't nice. Both of my children attend sports practice this afternoon, and they really need do to that. Shutting up entire families for weeks without even five minutes of fresh air is worse than merely "not nice", it's damned harsh. But I can imagine that it'll stop transmission.
  - krageon 5y ago
    > they really need to do that What you describe in terms of being forced to stay without food would definitely suck. The fact that you follow this up with "my children absolutely need sports" puts a frankly fairly tone-deaf slant on the rest of it. Yes, you are right that what you describe China doing is not nice. No, you are not right that not letting children go to sports practice as a measure to keep people from literally dying is "damned harsh". It's a measure that you can get used to - and I would say not letting others (including perhaps these children) get used to it by being so against it vocally is not helping anyone. Instead we should look for constructive ways to vent our excess energy, which everyone has and children especially do need to do, that don't involve antisocial reasoning.
    - Arnt 5y ago
      I suppose my previous message was easily misunderstood. I'm not trying to say that China's extremely quick escalation and general hashshness is bad overall, or that good. I could argue both sides of that question, and I don't envy the politicians who have to make the choice for each country. China's is a harsh response, but for a neurotropic and highly infections virus maybe the choice is between an immediate harsh response and another bad outcome dictated by the virus. And maybe the other outcome is worse. I wouldn't know. (I think noone knows — several other neurotropic viruses have a knack of putting people in wheelchairs twenty year later, is this one like them?)
peanut_worm 5y ago
You mean China has stopped reporting Covid deaths?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
legofr 5y ago
The Economist claim China have had 140k to 1.9m excess deaths since the pandemic started in Wuhan (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...). It's of course worth noting that China is one of the countries that stopped reporting excess deaths themselves since it would be pretty obvious that if China e.g. reported a million excess deaths then the majority could likely be attributed to SARS2 (whether they die directly from the virus or starve as a result of their brutal lockdowns).
- dirtyid 5y ago
  Economist using excess deaths figures from countries that failed contain covid to make upper bound inferences for PRC, which contained covid. Also range starts from MINUS 150K, i.e. excess life. Which makes more sense considering the source Economist used to extrapolate excess deaths for PRC concluded excess deaths was lower outside of Hubei/Wuhan in the months post lockdown [0] and things have been basically normal since due to aggressive covid zero policies. Other countries that aggressively contained covid also has excess life stats. [0] https://archive.is/d0Eo3#selection-1619.2-1619.274 https://archive.is/d0Eo3#selection-1619.2-1619.274
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  They aren't using Chinese excess death data, that shows zero deaths. They are using excess deaths of Western countries, and projecting those death rates to China. I'd you think that this is garbage, it is, and the Economist seriously fell off.
uranusjr 5y ago
Echoing some of the other comments in this thread: Given how they are dealing with outbreaks, having zero Covid deaths is probable. But I don’t blame anyone finding it unbelievable; how extreme they take the term “lockdown” to is unbelievable to begin with. Also, the aggressive lockdown strategies are also actively causing people to be much more susceptive to other fatalities. So while no people die of Covid, many, many are suffering or even dying as a consequence, without a trace in any Covid reports.
h0nd 5y ago
No testing, no deaths attributed. Could not be easier.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  China tests for COVID very aggressively.
  - h0nd 5y ago
    I trust you, but there is no data available or shared with WHO.
Overtonwindow 5y ago
I think at this point, every single thing the Chinese government claims, whether it’s about Covid or invading the independent nation of Taiwan, it should be taken with deep suspicion.
pupppet 5y ago
Total B.S. To those stating China’s strict lockdown policy somehow makes this believable- lockdowns are in response to COVID. If there are still COVID cases triggering lockdowns, there is still COVID out there causing death.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Not if lockdowns are rapid enough, no. If cases are caught immediately, and whole populations are tested, there can only be a few dozen cases, and from there we expect few to no deaths.
  - pupppet 5y ago
    It is not possible to 'catch immediately'. People spread it, government notices, lock-downs go into effect. A few dozen cases in a country of 1.4B is laughable.
    - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
      Every single person in China who seeks medical care and who has fever or respiratory symptoms is tested. Every person who works in a high-risk job (e.g., airport staff, border staff, some types of medical personnel) is regularly tested. Purchases of over-the-counter fever-reducing drugs are monitored. That's how outbreaks are caught early. If you're interested, and if you read Chinese, you can actually learn in great detail how (almost) each outbreak over the last year-plus was detected. There are detailed contact-tracing reports on most of the outbreaks.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      They don't say a few dozen, they say a few hundred. People spread it, sure, but they test the entire city. The majority of cases are caught immediately.
      - pupppet 5y ago
        The CN government doesn't immediately know when any one of their 1.4B citizens has COVID. Even if they did, early detection decreases death rate, it is not a cure. And zero deaths signals cure.
rep_movsd 5y ago
oliwarner 5y ago
I'm sad to be unable to properly cite this memory of a radio documentary but they were talking about the HIV epidemic as significant numbers of people around the world started dying in 1980s. China was quick to boast that they had no cases. None. The WHO liaisons pointed out how unlikely this was, and that they should immediately start testing their gay population. China said they only had two gay men, and neither tested positive. Don't believe China. They are —for any way that matters— above laws and decency. They only say things to make China look good.
birdinforest 5y ago
It is ridiculous to criticize the "zero case" stratergy on one hand and doubt the "zero death" report without any evidence on the other hand. It is just like a craying baby to refuse the reality. To @johan_larson, you don't have to bother to give out a bullet list about your analyses. You should had learned in high school that any case study and analyses should base on data and facts. However all points you listed are based on your subjective judgment. That will be earier to just say NO I DO NOT BELIEVE IT. Just like others comments. BTW, as a chinese living in oversea, I thanks for the chinese government to be serious about "zero case", even that brings me difficulty going back to China. As long as I know my parents are living in the one of a few country which are safe for aged people so far. If you are young or if you are in the middle age, you don't have to care about COVID very much. You can take care about yourself. You probably die if you get it but only in a less chance. However if you have parents and/or grand parents, go to read some article about symptoms or listen to the experience of people who recovered from COVID. Imagine how suffer they were and how they fear in the mid-night when they in the bed alone. (Because the illness could take a turn for the worse very quickly, and it turns to be very dangerous if no proper treat in time.) If it is possible by the sake of your empathy, think about how many the "zero case" stratergy saved aged people in China and praise it abit! If you refuse to admit the above. Just don't bother to doubt unless you do get any evidence. By the sake of humanelity empathy, do your best to stop spread around you. Reduce the risk to aged people in your familty and others beloved!
ykevinator2 5y ago
So they say (they lie a lot)
IdontRememberIt 5y ago
Now it is only politics because they are afraid of the Olympics exposure and to appear weak on TVs worldwide because they are not controlling covid. Let's wait the end of the Beijing Olympic Games. I bet they will change their covid strategy and fully re-open for business because they need it.
uslic001 5y ago
Given how the CCP operates this is a lie. If it is true then China is withholding treatments or vaccines that would have saved millions of lives. Either way the CCP has killed millions of people around the world with the release of this virus from their lab.

53 points by rep_movsd 5y ago

[dead]

This is a sarcastic post obviously, but I want to know how China gets away with this lies and why a site like worldometer would post this as facts.

wand3r 5y ago
> why a site like worldometer would post this as facts. I love worldometers. What would you expect them to do? They aggregate official stats. I don’t expect them to use a statistical model or something, I want the real reported numbers. The only thing they could really do in my opinion is put an asterisk on the numbers that are wildly unbelievable with a small disclaimer or something. I don’t check the Chinese stats there so maybe they have done this already? Other than that, what would you expect them to do? They can’t have country specific heuristics and different methodologies even if we “know” the count is wrong.
otherme123 5y ago
Why wouldn't they? Groups more important than worldodometer pledged to China shenanigans. I would do exactly the same: publish the official data and let the user deduce that it's total bullshit. That damages the China image ever more. The past year we were on the brink of buying some lab equipment from a chinese seller, but the numbers were so suspiciously good and their guarantees so thin (in case of underperforming) that we end up buying from a local seller at twice the price. They lie by default and it damages in the long run.
cxr 5y ago
> This is a sarcastic post obviously Well, stop. You also submitted an editorialized title. Don't do that, either.
kunagi7 5y ago
Well, Worldometer just shows the official data. They can hide the fact that North Korea has no data at all but China is way to big to do it. If the official data is a plain lie there's nothing they can do. If they put a banner warning about it they could end up blocked by the Chinese Firewall, and with a massive DDOS attack against them from a random offended Chinese service.
iqanq 5y ago
They post every country data as facts, but they don't do any fact checking themselves. It's not like I believe the western data that much either.

johan_larson 5y ago

I don't for a minute believe this number is actually true. But on the other hand, it seems like a very strange lie to tell, because it's so unbelievable. It would be far easier to believe a claim that COVID deaths are simply very rare but not actually non-existent. That would be the sensible lie, the canny lie. It's tempting to believe that the Chinese government just doesn't give a damn what people think, and are therefore willing to say anything at all. But if they really don't care, why lie in the first place? The only interpretation that I can come up with that makes sense is that a) the government of China is reluctant to admit to any fault at all, b) the actual number of deaths is low but not impressively low, and c) the Chinese press (including social media) is very tightly controlled, and d) by b and c the government can get away with saying there are no deaths without looking like idiots.

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
Somehow this hasn't really sunk in in the West, but China basically ended its pandemic by April 2020. There has been no sustained local transmission within China since then. There are small clusters of cases that occur when the virus somehow breaches the border protections (e.g., 3-week quarantine for all incoming passengers). There's a very quick reaction whenever this happens, and the outbreak is ended within days to weeks. The Xi'an outbreak, with 2,000 cases in total, is the most serious outbreak China has had since April 2020. There are small cities in the US with more cases than that every day. Exponential growth is brutal, so China can remain at ultra-low numbers, as long as it detects and contains outbreaks early. That's why there have been only a handful of deaths (contrary to the title of this thread, there have been a few reported deaths) since April 2020. There are plenty of people here on Hacker News who either live in China or have friends/family there. It just seems to be the people who don't have any contact with the country who have a hard time believing what's going on in China. I sort of understand: China's pandemic experience has been so different from that of the West that it can be difficult to accept as reality.
rwmj 5y ago
I think it's the Russian tactic of trying to coarsen debate with the aim of people not knowing what to believe so they tune out of politics ("all politicians lie").

throwawaymanbot 5y ago

RspecMAuthortah 5y ago

After so many "conspiracy theories" that later became true, I now tend to put more weight on the idea that this is a bio-weapon or lab leak and China knew the solution or actively even tried spreading it throughout the world. For example to influence the outcome of 2020 election.

throw3434053 5y ago
Because the powers at be in the US loved trump? Don't look at China, think about a US leak. China's government structure is built to micromanage viral outbreaks in a successful manner.

nazgulsenpai 5y ago

From what I can surmise, local government has a "zero case" mandate from Beijing where they're supposed to do anything possible to prevent COVID cases, and out of fear of the retribution from the party or the desire to be seen favorably, they find a way to report zero cases.

yorwba 5y ago
Only 11 provinces are reporting zero current cases: https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121
- nazgulsenpai 5y ago
  Apologies, I meant to say zero cases where COVID is the cause of death, but I didn't make that clear.
  - yorwba 5y ago
    Since they announce a handful of cases every day, they might as well also announce the small share of those that end with the patient dying. The last time that happened (on January 25, 2021, so the headline of the submission here is incorrect) it was just one of many statistics in the report the next day: http://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/jlzxd/yqtb/202101/t20210126_7925433.html http://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/jlzxd/yqtb/202101/t20210126_79254...

javagram 5y ago

China’s zero COVID efforts and policy seem to be real, not made up. However given there have been a number of small outbreaks they have either been very lucky it has never spread to a vulnerable person or they have covered up several deaths over the last year. Western journalists and businessmen are on the ground throughout the country (not to mention family ties and communications between expat Chinese and their families) and if there were a major outbreak of COVID killing dozens or hundreds, i dont think they’d be able to cover it up.

18237198371q 5y ago
How is zero covid an achievable policy for an endemic, highly contagious virus? The whole idea to me seems impossible.
- javagram 5y ago
  Zero COVID prevented the virus from becoming endemic in China (look up the definition of endemic). Once it does, you’re right that it seems like putting the genie back in the bottle is impossible - once COVID has spread to wildlife like deer and cats it seems hard to imagine a method of wiping it out within that country’s borders. We know several other countries with less strict policies than China maintained zero COVID for quite some time, or states within those countries (Australia for instance had COVID outbreaks they successfully confined to one or two states). Once delta hit, it became too difficult for those countries to continue, but we can see China is more authoritarian and their stricter measures may still be effective for now.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Isn't there still a lot of uncertainty about how the virus will look in wildlife? If deer get it and get good immunity when they recover, they won't necessarily be a long term reservoir, and so on.
  - 18237198371q 5y ago
    Short term zero COVID may be achievable. I am not disputing that. However, China must maintain vigilance literally forever. That is why I don't find it a realistic policy.

18237198371q 5y ago

In other news, 98% of Chinese citizens trust their government. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/05/did-pandemic-shake-chinese-citizens-trust-their-government/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/05/did-pande...

MontyCarloHall 5y ago
Interviewer: “how do you feel about your government?” Chinese interviewee: “I can’t complain!”
- hprotagonist 5y ago
  “Everything is fine back home in the old country, except i can’t find a store that sells any green ink!”
  - mijoharas 5y ago
    sorry to ask, as I'm sure it's just me not getting the joke, but are you referring to "green ink" in terms of this[0] or something else? [0] https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Green_ink https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Green_ink
    - fionnoh 5y ago
      It's (I believe) a reference to an old Communist joke. A guy was sent from East Germany to work in Siberia. He knew his mail would be read by censors, so he told his friends: “Let’s establish a code. If a letter you get from me is written in blue ink, it is true what I say. If it is written in red ink, it is false.” After a month, his friends get the first letter. Everything is in blue. It says, this letter: “Everything is wonderful here. Stores are full of good food. Movie theaters show good films from the west. Apartments are large and luxurious. The only thing you cannot buy is red ink.”
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
5y ago

greatjack613 5y ago

dang 5y ago
I can't imagine that anybody here is taking it seriously. --- Please don't use HN for nationalistic battle. It's not what this site is for, and it destroys what it is for. We've already had to ask you this several times, and you've continued to do it quite badly, e.g.: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29595653 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29595653 (Dec 2021) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29273660 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29273660 (Nov 2021) Continuing like that will get you banned here. I don't want to ban you, so please don't continue like that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

savant_penguin 5y ago

If your job and very possibility freedom depended on a "zero" in a row inside some spreadsheet you'd make goddam sure there's going to be a zero in there

Arnt 5y ago
Would you go as far as quarantining entire blocks of 500 apartments based on one positive covid test, and not letting people out even to buy food? What the Chinese are doing there isn't nice. Both of my children attend sports practice this afternoon, and they really need do to that. Shutting up entire families for weeks without even five minutes of fresh air is worse than merely "not nice", it's damned harsh. But I can imagine that it'll stop transmission.
- krageon 5y ago
  > they really need to do that What you describe in terms of being forced to stay without food would definitely suck. The fact that you follow this up with "my children absolutely need sports" puts a frankly fairly tone-deaf slant on the rest of it. Yes, you are right that what you describe China doing is not nice. No, you are not right that not letting children go to sports practice as a measure to keep people from literally dying is "damned harsh". It's a measure that you can get used to - and I would say not letting others (including perhaps these children) get used to it by being so against it vocally is not helping anyone. Instead we should look for constructive ways to vent our excess energy, which everyone has and children especially do need to do, that don't involve antisocial reasoning.
  - Arnt 5y ago
    I suppose my previous message was easily misunderstood. I'm not trying to say that China's extremely quick escalation and general hashshness is bad overall, or that good. I could argue both sides of that question, and I don't envy the politicians who have to make the choice for each country. China's is a harsh response, but for a neurotropic and highly infections virus maybe the choice is between an immediate harsh response and another bad outcome dictated by the virus. And maybe the other outcome is worse. I wouldn't know. (I think noone knows — several other neurotropic viruses have a knack of putting people in wheelchairs twenty year later, is this one like them?)

peanut_worm 5y ago

You mean China has stopped reporting Covid deaths?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

legofr 5y ago

The Economist claim China have had 140k to 1.9m excess deaths since the pandemic started in Wuhan (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...). It's of course worth noting that China is one of the countries that stopped reporting excess deaths themselves since it would be pretty obvious that if China e.g. reported a million excess deaths then the majority could likely be attributed to SARS2 (whether they die directly from the virus or starve as a result of their brutal lockdowns).

dirtyid 5y ago
Economist using excess deaths figures from countries that failed contain covid to make upper bound inferences for PRC, which contained covid. Also range starts from MINUS 150K, i.e. excess life. Which makes more sense considering the source Economist used to extrapolate excess deaths for PRC concluded excess deaths was lower outside of Hubei/Wuhan in the months post lockdown [0] and things have been basically normal since due to aggressive covid zero policies. Other countries that aggressively contained covid also has excess life stats. [0] https://archive.is/d0Eo3#selection-1619.2-1619.274 https://archive.is/d0Eo3#selection-1619.2-1619.274
sudosysgen 5y ago
They aren't using Chinese excess death data, that shows zero deaths. They are using excess deaths of Western countries, and projecting those death rates to China. I'd you think that this is garbage, it is, and the Economist seriously fell off.

uranusjr 5y ago

Echoing some of the other comments in this thread: Given how they are dealing with outbreaks, having zero Covid deaths is probable. But I don’t blame anyone finding it unbelievable; how extreme they take the term “lockdown” to is unbelievable to begin with. Also, the aggressive lockdown strategies are also actively causing people to be much more susceptive to other fatalities. So while no people die of Covid, many, many are suffering or even dying as a consequence, without a trace in any Covid reports.

h0nd 5y ago

No testing, no deaths attributed. Could not be easier.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
China tests for COVID very aggressively.
- h0nd 5y ago
  I trust you, but there is no data available or shared with WHO.

Overtonwindow 5y ago

I think at this point, every single thing the Chinese government claims, whether it’s about Covid or invading the independent nation of Taiwan, it should be taken with deep suspicion.

pupppet 5y ago

Total B.S. To those stating China’s strict lockdown policy somehow makes this believable- lockdowns are in response to COVID. If there are still COVID cases triggering lockdowns, there is still COVID out there causing death.

sudosysgen 5y ago
Not if lockdowns are rapid enough, no. If cases are caught immediately, and whole populations are tested, there can only be a few dozen cases, and from there we expect few to no deaths.
- pupppet 5y ago
  It is not possible to 'catch immediately'. People spread it, government notices, lock-downs go into effect. A few dozen cases in a country of 1.4B is laughable.
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    Every single person in China who seeks medical care and who has fever or respiratory symptoms is tested. Every person who works in a high-risk job (e.g., airport staff, border staff, some types of medical personnel) is regularly tested. Purchases of over-the-counter fever-reducing drugs are monitored. That's how outbreaks are caught early. If you're interested, and if you read Chinese, you can actually learn in great detail how (almost) each outbreak over the last year-plus was detected. There are detailed contact-tracing reports on most of the outbreaks.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    They don't say a few dozen, they say a few hundred. People spread it, sure, but they test the entire city. The majority of cases are caught immediately.
    - pupppet 5y ago
      The CN government doesn't immediately know when any one of their 1.4B citizens has COVID. Even if they did, early detection decreases death rate, it is not a cure. And zero deaths signals cure.

rep_movsd 5y ago

oliwarner 5y ago

I'm sad to be unable to properly cite this memory of a radio documentary but they were talking about the HIV epidemic as significant numbers of people around the world started dying in 1980s. China was quick to boast that they had no cases. None. The WHO liaisons pointed out how unlikely this was, and that they should immediately start testing their gay population. China said they only had two gay men, and neither tested positive. Don't believe China. They are —for any way that matters— above laws and decency. They only say things to make China look good.

birdinforest 5y ago

It is ridiculous to criticize the "zero case" stratergy on one hand and doubt the "zero death" report without any evidence on the other hand. It is just like a craying baby to refuse the reality. To @johan_larson, you don't have to bother to give out a bullet list about your analyses. You should had learned in high school that any case study and analyses should base on data and facts. However all points you listed are based on your subjective judgment. That will be earier to just say NO I DO NOT BELIEVE IT. Just like others comments. BTW, as a chinese living in oversea, I thanks for the chinese government to be serious about "zero case", even that brings me difficulty going back to China. As long as I know my parents are living in the one of a few country which are safe for aged people so far. If you are young or if you are in the middle age, you don't have to care about COVID very much. You can take care about yourself. You probably die if you get it but only in a less chance. However if you have parents and/or grand parents, go to read some article about symptoms or listen to the experience of people who recovered from COVID. Imagine how suffer they were and how they fear in the mid-night when they in the bed alone. (Because the illness could take a turn for the worse very quickly, and it turns to be very dangerous if no proper treat in time.) If it is possible by the sake of your empathy, think about how many the "zero case" stratergy saved aged people in China and praise it abit! If you refuse to admit the above. Just don't bother to doubt unless you do get any evidence. By the sake of humanelity empathy, do your best to stop spread around you. Reduce the risk to aged people in your familty and others beloved!

ykevinator2 5y ago

So they say (they lie a lot)

IdontRememberIt 5y ago

Now it is only politics because they are afraid of the Olympics exposure and to appear weak on TVs worldwide because they are not controlling covid. Let's wait the end of the Beijing Olympic Games. I bet they will change their covid strategy and fully re-open for business because they need it.

uslic001 5y ago

Given how the CCP operates this is a lie. If it is true then China is withholding treatments or vaccines that would have saved millions of lives. Either way the CCP has killed millions of people around the world with the release of this virus from their lab.