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Farmers facing fertiliser sticker shock may cut use
- downrightmike 5y agoConsidering how much is overused and washes into rivers and oceans and creates dead zones. This is a really good thing. We over produce as is.
- throwaway1777 5y agoWhat an odd rationalization. This is NOT a good thing. Aside from empty shelves, prices will rise from lower production if nothing else and that can lead to all kinds of bad consequences from malnutrition to social unrest.
- drbojingle 5y agoHe's not wrong though. What he's describing is a silver lining. Optimizing fertilizer application to reduce waste is going to be part of the response to addressing climate change.
- vorpalhex 5y agoFood prices going up hurts the poor the most, especially base commodities like corn and soy.
- picsao 5y agoThe last cut in american over production resulted in the Arab-spring revolution wave and the Syrian Civil War.
- rmason 5y agoMost of the nitrogen in our rivers and lakes causing problems isn't from farmers use of fertilizer. Farmers are in a low margin business and if they use too much nitrogen they make less money. A lot of it used to be caused by manure runoff from large animal operations. But twenty or more years ago laws were changed and regulators focused their attention on correcting this problem. There are always exceptions but mostly this problem is fixed. Farmers have to file plans on which lands gets manure, complete with soil tests showing they're not overdoing it. I helped farmers in the late nineties fill out these reports in my former career as an agronomist. Back then some larger farmers were either moving to composting or using the manure to power plants creating electricity. So where is it coming from now? Lawn fertilizer! People over fertilizing their lawns.
- frenchyatwork 5y agoSo humanity's stupidest form of cultivation strikes again.
- jakear 5y agoYou seem to know what you’re talking about so I have a question. Is it possible that leaving fallen leaves on a lawn for a period of time can help to fertilize that lawn? I experimented with that on my lawn this past fall and while it’s too early to make any conclusions I wonder if there’s any prior art here?
- xyzzyz 5y agoComposted leaves will fertilize it somewhat, but if you just let leaves fall on your lawn, it tends to kill the lawn. I recommend raking into pile, and letting it sit for a year or so (fallen brown leaves compost rather slowly), then you can spread resulting compost. But, unless you have lots of trees, the amount of nitrogen in fallen leaves will be minimal (trees don’t like parting with valuable nutrients either).
- aesch 5y agoNot an expert, just a gardener. Short answer: just letting leaves fall on your lawn for a period of time is unlikely to provide fertilization, in fact it may hurt your lawn, because the leaves will not break down fast enough and will instead cut off your lawn's access to air and sunlight. Long answer: You need to break down the organic matter in the leaves through composting. To speed up composting you want the right proportions of both brown (carbon - your leaves) and green (nitrogen) matter, the right moisture levels, and access to oxygen, usually in a large pile to create the perfect environment for the microorganisms that break down the matter. Your leaves are a great base for your compost, I always use mine, but you will probably need to put a little sweat equity into it, as well as kitchen scraps, lawn cuttings, etc. to get the right proportion of greens.
- nicoburns 5y ago> Lawn fertilizer! People over fertilizing their lawns. Lawn fertilizer!? I didn't even know that was a thing! Why would you fertilize a lawn. Won't that just make it grow faster and therefore require you to mow it more often?
- shrubble 5y agoA related problem is that seeds for next year's crop has gone up a lot also. For example, last year peas for seed were about $8 per bushel. Now, $25 per bushel. So both fertilizer and seed costs have increased; which changes the calculus of how many acres the farmer can afford to plant.
- anonymouswacker 5y agoThe US Gov needs to act fast, like Trump did in 2020, to subsidize agriculture before this crisis culminates in food shortages.
- GnarfGnarf 5y agoMost people don't understand that fertilizer is made from petrochemicals. It's not old-fashioned manure.
- cheeseomlit 5y agoAnd some of the toxic by-products of that production are then put into our drinking water instead of being properly disposed of https://www.cdc.gov/fluoridation/engineering/engineering-shortages.htm https://www.cdc.gov/fluoridation/engineering/engineering-sho... >The three fluoride additives used for water fluoridation are derived principally from phosphate fertilizer production.
- lovich 5y agoIs fluoride in our drinking water a problem? I happen to like my teeth
- OJFord 5y agoSome locales (all of the USA, I believe) add it for the benefit of teeth. (Like anything there's presumably a poisonous dosage! But) no, not a problem.
- machinerychorus 5y agoWhile it is typically railed against by crackpots, it also shouldn't be assumed to be safe/correct. We've been adding flouride to water for a long time, without much understanding of the risks, benefits, or proper dosage. Here's an article from the atlantic (not a crackpot news source) which goes into detail: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/04/why-fluoride-water/606784/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/04/why-flu...
- worik 5y agohttps://www.cochrane.org/CD010856/ORAL_water-fluoridation-prevent-tooth-decay https://www.cochrane.org/CD010856/ORAL_water-fluoridation-pr... Key results Our review found that water fluoridation is effective at reducing levels of tooth decay among children. The introduction of water fluoridation resulted in children having 35% fewer decayed, missing and filled baby teeth and 26% fewer decayed, missing and filled permanent teeth. We also found that fluoridation led to a 15% increase in children with no decay in their baby teeth and a 14% increase in children with no decay in their permanent teeth. These results are based predominantly on old studies and may not be applicable today.
- bigthymer 5y agoThey could also switch to less fertilizer intensive crops. I think soybeans require less than corn. Farmers commonly switch between the two depending on market prices. Not a farmer but I think I read it somewhere...maybe 80% sure of this...
- opinion-is-bad 5y agoSoybeans and corn can often be grown in the same areas, and corn uses more fertilizer than soybeans so your logic checks out. The problem is that corn produces more calories per acre than soybeans (or any other crop), so changing over large amounts of production could still result in a food shortage even if the total acres remains the same.
- zdragnar 5y agoWe could also cut the mandates for ethanol produced from corn- roughly 40% of corn grown goes into making it.
- throwawayboise 5y agoA lot of corn also goes to animal feed.
- Scoundreller 5y agoWhen I worked out the numbers, it was about 75% of US corn production going to ethanol and animal feed. A lot of the other 25% is probably corn syrup. Burning natural gas to make fertilizer to grow corn (a 2% efficient solar panel) to eventually blend with gasoline is uhhhhh, dumb.
- djrogers 5y agoThe article, and the problems it references, aren't really expected to be a US thing - it's developing nations, and places where food is already harder to come by...
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- akeck 5y ago"Dirt to Soil" by Gabe Brown might start getting more popular. He started investigating no-till, etc. after several successive years of crop failures and thus not being able to afford the normal inputs for industrial farming.
- rmason 5y agoAdopting no-till techniques will save soil but won't appreciably reduce your fertilizer use. I'd even go so far as to say if you do it right the soil will be healthier. But if you use cover crops and especially rotate out of alfalfa you can safely reduce nitrogen use because of the carryover of nitrogen in the soil.
- TaylorAlexander 5y agoAll the no till people I follow don’t use chemical fertilizer(eg JM Fortier). They do add compost to their soil but that’s not fertilizer.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- throwawaylinux 5y agoZero till is a mainstream commercial cropping technique and has been for decades.
- TaylorAlexander 5y agoI guess I am referring to regenerative organic no-till in particular.
- throwawaylinux 5y agoOkay. Cropping requires nutrient inputs though, and there's not much way around that. Nitrogen fixing and such are helpful but not able to supply all requirements. Composting and this kind of organic farming is a nice boutique niche, but realistically it would be unable to sustain the food requirements of the world without being prohibitively expensive. Fertilizers based on petroleum and other mined minerals is the only options for that.
- sremani 5y agoThis is a serious problem. Developing world and food insecure nations will see heads roll and experience famine. Worried about global inflation on food.
- doitLP 5y agoThis was my first thought after I understood what locking down the world meant. I wonder if the death toll with be worth it in the final analysis.
- _rpd 5y agoA more in depth look at the factors causing high fertilizer prices: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-many-to-count-factors-driving-fertilizer-prices-higher-and-higher https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-many-to-count-factors-dr... tl;dr: high natural gas prices, weather caused production delays, COVID caused production/shipping delays, power shortages in China (a major exporter) resulting in lower production
- thowaway97351 5y ago
- bee_rider 5y agoThis website was originally about startups. I bet if your farm can produce anything near as much as the competition without using modern fertilizers, you could pick up some investors here by detailing your process and results.
- jelliclesfarm 5y agoPlayground Global was looking at fertilizer making by skipping Haber Bosch process entirely…I don’t know how far along they are but there are a few companies/startups that are looking at this space. Perhaps quantum computing might catch on sooner than we hope and new breakthroughs in material science?
- 99_00 5y agoMore "surprises" like this is coming in the future. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment
- jelliclesfarm 5y agoMost people are not aware that we have less than 60 years of phosphate reserves left. It’s not a renewable resource.
- lambdaba 5y agoWikipedia says 260 years: > In 2021, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that economically extractable phosphate rock reserves worldwide are 71 billion tons, while world mining production in 2020 was 223 million tons. Assuming zero growth, the reserves would thus last for 260 years.
- philipkglass 5y agoPhosphorus is one of the more common elements on Earth. It's more common than carbon, sulfur, or nitrogen (to name 3 other elements essential to life): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth... Lower grade phosphorus-bearing minerals could also be refined to concentrate the phosphorus. But there's little current incentive to do so when the tried-and-true process starting with phosphate rock will be adequate for a couple more centuries.
- kashkhan 5y agohave we ever "run out" of a non-renewable resource? Non-renewables just become more expensive when easily found reserves are exhausted.
- kmeisthax 5y agoThat's a distinction without a difference. The end result is the same; we lose the ability to make use of the resource in question and have to design alternatives.
- bryanlarsen 5y agoBy that measure we ran out of copper a long time ago, yet I can still buy it at Home Depot. It's just crazy expensive.
- Reichhardt 5y agoChina already suspended Phosphate exports in July 2021: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-exports-fertilisers/chinas-major-fertiliser-makers-to-suspend-exports-amid-tight-supplies-idUSKBN2F007W https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-exports-fertilisers...
- DavidPeiffer 5y agoWhile not the focus of this article, I'm curious how much of a reduction in fertilizer use we'll see in Iowa and the ramifications for water quality. Overapplication and lack of buffers has lead to incredibly high levels of nitrates making it into the rivers. Because of this, Des Moines is starting on a new $30M well because every year the algae and nitrate levels become too high for safe consumption. It's gone to the Iowa Supreme Court, but no remedy has been required of the communities upstream. The most of the last two summers the local lake has had an advisory to not swim or do water sports because of the algae. Another article interviewed a water quality professor who basically said "There's no other comparable city that has this issue. Not being able to use the river as the full water supply because of nitrate levels is unheard of." https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr-news/2021-04-22/des-moines-water-works-advances-plans-to-build-new-wells-in-light-of-river-pollutants https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr-news/2021-04-22/des-moin...
- Scoundreller 5y agoI guess the Toledo (the Ohio one) Water Crisis was lost on them. Could happen to any city on the Great Lakes. > Lake Erie, which is a source of drinking water for the Toledo water system may have been impacted by a harmful algal bloom (HAB). These organisms are capable of producing a number of toxins that may pose a risk to human and animal health. HABs occur when excess nitrogen and phosphorus are present in lakes and streams. Such nutrients can come from runoff of over-fertilized fields and lawns, from malfunctioning septic systems and from livestock pens. https://neiwpcc.org/information-center/neiwpcc-reprint-series/a-study-in-cyan/toledo-water-crisis/ https://neiwpcc.org/information-center/neiwpcc-reprint-serie... > It took a serendipitous slug of toxins and the loss of drinking water for a half-million residents to bring home what scientists and government officials in this part of the country have been saying for years: Lake Erie is in trouble, and getting worse by the year. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/05/us/lifting-ban-toledo-says-its-water-is-safe-to-drink-again.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/05/us/lifting-ban-toledo-say...
- mattferderer 5y agoThis has become a huge issue all over the country where there is a lot of farm land next to lakes & rivers. Another big issue is salt from water softeners & products dumped on roads & driveways to remove ice in the winter. I'm curious if there exists any companies working on some type of large water supply cleaning method as I don't see people slowing down or reducing any of the above.
- mwattsun 5y agoI remember this from awhile back about how food insecurity sparked instability in N. African and Middle Eastern countries Lack of access to affordable food has proven to trigger revolutions and spark unrest across the world https://www.csis.org/analysis/food-insecurity-conflict-and-stability https://www.csis.org/analysis/food-insecurity-conflict-and-s...
- lotsofpulp 5y agoThat seems like an obvious truth.
- mwattsun 5y agoI thought the same thing, but I like to fact check
- switch007 5y agoIt’s a huge reason why food is relatively cheap in most of the EU, I believe.
- mardifoufs 5y agoI can't speak for all of the Middle East, but it is known that morocco buys enormous amounts of grain and stockpiles huge reserves for exactly that reason. Everyone knows that once bread starts missing, there's no going back. So while the state is very very bad at doing a lot of stuff, and is plagued with corruption at all levels, it's been reliably very good at getting grain and making sure the prices are fine no matter the costs. I've had family members who were more or less in charge of the state procurement of grains, and they have always always put an emphasis on how seriously the whole thing is dealt with. I wonder how the current price swings are hurting the state coffer, though. But, once governments can't afford the subsidies, you get situations like what's currently happening in Kazakhstan.
- aussiegreenie 5y agoFarmers are facing countless "sticker shocks" with the most important being water. Most farming is not either ecologically or financially sustainable. Major changes are need to farming.
- Robotbeat 5y agoBy the way, ammonia is basically the easiest market for clean hydrogen (makes WAY more sense than hydrogen for transportation). Ammonia actually doesn’t use hydrocarbons for feedstock at all; it uses nitrogen from the air and hydrogen (usually produced via steam reforming of natural gas, but can be made easily with electricity, as was common before the 1950s when steam reforming took off). It takes about 1kg of hydrogen per 5.7kg of anhydrous ammonia. So if you can make clean hydrogen for $2.5-3/kg, you can make clean ammonia for under $500/tonne in feedstock costs. The current price of anhydrous ammonia has reached above $1300/tonne in some areas of the US in the last few months. Companies looking into making synthetic natural gas or hydrogen for transport really ought to be focusing on this as near-term low-hanging fruit where you have the option of actually eliminating steam reforming needed for fossil fuels and use electrically synthesized hydrogen as a direct feedstock instead.
- nradov 5y agoAmmonia may be a good option for fueling merchant ships. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54511743 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54511743
- philipkglass 5y agoElectrolytic hydrogen projects for this purpose are popping up now. "Scatec partners with Fertiglobe and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt to develop green hydrogen as feedstock for ammonia production in Egypt" https://scatec.com/2021/10/14/scatec-partners-with-fertiglobe-and-the-sovereign-fund-of-egypt-to-develop-green-hydrogen-as-feedstock-for-ammonia-production-in-egypt/ https://scatec.com/2021/10/14/scatec-partners-with-fertiglob... In 1960 Egypt built a large electrolytic hydrogen plant powered by hydroelectricity from the Aswan Dam, also for making fertilizer. Now renewable electricity from other sources is reviving electricity-to-ammonia systems. In energy terms, the [fertilizer] industry is dominated by the Kima plant at Aswan which at full production would use 7.6 x 10^15 joules of energy per annum to produce 112,000 tonnes of nitrogen as prilled calcium ammonium nitrate. The plant was built in 1960 to utilize the spare hydropower available from the Aswan Dam to produce hydrogen by electrolysis for ammonia manufacture. The plant has operated successfully since its inception and is currently one of the largest plants in the country. From U.S. Department of Energy report, "An Assessment of the Energy Requirements and Selected Options Facing Major Consumers Within the Eyptian Industrial and Agricultural Sectors", 1978 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5610349 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5610349 One interesting side effect of these electrolytic hydrogen projects may be cheaper heavy water (deuterated water) and deuterium. The Norwegian heavy water plant that was famously sabotaged during World War II [1] was primarily a fertilizer plant that made electrolytic hydrogen using hydroelectricity. Electrolysis concentrates deuterium in the water left behind in the production cells, due to ordinary light hydrogen being liberated from water faster (kinetic isotope effect). Electrolysis is a very expensive way to make heavy water alone, but if you need to electrolyze a lot of water for hydrogen anyway, heavy water can be a much lower cost co-product. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_heavy_water_sabotage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_heavy_water_sabotage
- aaron695 5y ago
- mp3k 5y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalypse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalyps...
- vondur 5y agoThis won’t be good for food prices.