12 ms·

> "The CDC weekly death counts, which reflect the information on death certificates and so have a lag of up to eight weeks or longer, show that for the week end

> "The CDC weekly death counts, which reflect the information on death certificates and so have a lag of up to eight weeks or longer, show that for the week ending Nov. 6, there were far fewer deaths from COVID-19 in Indiana compared to a year ago – 195 verses 336 – but more deaths from other causes – 1,350 versus 1,319." So last year more covid deaths (particularly among the elderly), but while those numbers have declined, the numbers from younger "working age" people have increased more than enough to make up for it. > "Just 8.9% of ICU beds are available at hospitals in the state, a low for the year, and lower than at any time during the pandemic. But the majority of ICU beds are not taken up by COVID-19 patients – just 37% are, while 54% of the ICU beds are being occupied by people with other illnesses or conditions." Well a lot of people were avoiding medical care (precisely because of Covid concerns), so this makes some sense. Couple that with the increased death rate for younger people and something has happened to worsen the health and outcomes generally for that population. Cue wild speculation and theories.

fuckyah 5y ago
ganoushoreilly 5y ago
Within my brothers circle of friends / former friends etc, amongst those that participate in recreational drug use, there have been a crazy number of Fentanyl related deaths. They're all between the ages of 25 - 30. I can't help but wonder how much this has an impact.
- PragmaticPulp 5y ago
  All of the non-COVID deaths I’ve heard of among younger people (<60) from my extended social circle and their family/friends have been drug related. Working from home can remove a lot of the accountability that keeps addicts in check. When your coworkers can’t see you, it’s much easier to be inebriated or otherwise suffering from addiction-related issues without feeling social pressure to correct it.
  - tomcam 5y ago
    Thank you for saying < 60 is young!
  - jeffbee 5y ago
    That's pretty normal, at least for the last few decades of American life. There is not a major natural cause of death for people 18-65. They die of suicide, accidental overdoses, and car crashes.
    - stavros 5y ago
      When we say "overdoses", doesn't it sound like the person's fault, when it was probably that they were sold a poisoned/cut batch? I wonder how many "overdoses" would have been avoided if you could buy drugs at a pharmacy.
      - prirun 5y ago
        A lot of times an overdose occurs if a person got clean for a while then went back to using. They tend to start using at their previous levels even though their body is no longer used to that level, so it's a sudden jolt that kills them. So I've read - I have zero experience with drugs, luckily.
        stavros 5y ago
        Yeah, I've read that too, but I have no idea which is more frequent. I'd assume the tainted drugs are more frequent, just because getting tainted product is more frequent than getting clean and relapsing, but I don't know. I'll definitely recommend LSD or mushrooms, though. They are lots of fun.
      - worik 5y ago
        Almost all, if there were some sensible regulation. People do not die from smoking opium, much. But die a lot from popping pills. Concentrated synthetic opioids are deadly.
  - 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nerdbaggy 5y ago
  Correct! “ The synthetic and highly addictive drug has claimed more lives than COVID-19, auto crashes, gun violence, cancer and suicide in the year 2020.” https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-death-for-adults-18-45-recent-government-data-says/article_ed0bfe28-5f79-11ec-8aa0-af3f6cbff03c.html https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-deat...
  - jeffbee 5y ago
    No byline. No sources. Bad article. The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error.
    - mlyle 5y ago
      > The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error. I don't think it does. Sure, they throw out the 100k overdoses number at the end, which isn't specific to fentanyl, but the other numbers they cite are around 40k/year and a run rate of 64k/year by Deceber 2021. Current data is here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm It's about 62k deaths from synthetic opioids/year (excluding methadone) at the end of the series-- the vast majority of these are fentanyl. Plus a bunch of heroin deaths which are rapidly becoming "really fentanyl" deaths. And that's up to April, not December.
      - jeffbee 5y ago
        That data is for all ages. If you go to WISQARS and filter for ages 18-45, which is the subject of the news site's article, it looks to me like the numbers they are giving in the article are the same as the total number of accidental poisoning.
        mlyle 5y ago
        They're pulling from this fact sheet: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S0szR2Ua9v0Sr91YhDD7gPrXsDkHxDvP/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S0szR2Ua9v0Sr91YhDD7gPrXsDk... Topic 1 is on ages 18-45: more deaths from fentanyl than from... The later topics are on all ages. The fact sheet attributes 24k deaths in the age range to fentanyl in 2019. WISQARS accidental injuries from poisoning in the age range were 38k in 2019. 2/3rds in that age range being fentanyl is totally plausible. https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D157;jsessionid=7A04C7DC8D17F0A5FA2103363BB7 https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D157;jsessioni... has the broken down data. They have 36,907 deaths in 2020 from 18-45 with T40.4-- "other synthetic opioids excluding methadone". FAF is calling all deaths from synthetic opioids fentanyl, which isn't quite true but it's very likely close to true.
- 3maj 5y ago
  Probably a big one. Drug overdoses have killed more 18-54 year olds in Canada than Covid has. Hell, in British Columbia there have been more drug overdoses than Covid deaths across all ages.
- exdsq 5y ago
  I read fentanyl killed more people than Covid in SF last year - don’t think there were any age brackets on that either
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  And it's not just opiate users. People buying coke & 'molly' are overdosing too from fent and analogues too. Why in the world would a dealer put fent into coke. I guess a speedball feels great but the average weekend partier doing a bump or a pill are not looking to walk that death tightrope. Just sad all around and we still have a long way to go with stigma and science based treatment. If you happen to be in that scene might be a good idea to start carrying naloxone.
  - worik 5y ago
    A very powerful argument for legalising forms of those drugs for recreational use.
    - dillondoyle 5y ago
      Yea please! Decriminalizing would be a great first step but won't cut out the cartels and gangs and adulteration (kind word for poisoning..) Would also love to see over the counter narcan. suboxone for any who wants it without the compliance burden.
      - slapshot 5y ago
        Narcan is available "behind the counter" in most states. You have to ask for it, but a prescription isn't required.[1] [1] https://www.cvs.com/content/prescription-drug-abuse/save-a-life https://www.cvs.com/content/prescription-drug-abuse/save-a-l...
        dillondoyle 5y ago
        I know there were a few people organizing on reddit too where they would ship it if you can't access it easily too! I think it was a lady on /r/opiates
  - Tiktaalik 5y ago
    Yep. It's not an opioid epidemic or crisis, it's a toxic drug crisis. The drugs are poisoned. No one knows what's in them. There's a drug test site in my city that regularly posts examples of what they find on twitter. Totally random ultra dangerous poisons in party drugs. All the time. Here's an example: a drug not safe for humans in a test sample of MDMA. https://twitter.com/GYDTcanada/status/1477444546480984065?s=20 https://twitter.com/GYDTcanada/status/1477444546480984065?s=... People are dying because they're doing some thing and they have no idea what it is. It's impossible to use drugs safely in such a situation.
- joe_the_user 5y ago
  US has had both a drug-addiction epidemic, a diabetes epidemic and an obesity epidemic. Each these conditions doesn't just reduce lifespan. They also put people in a more fragile life-situation where they need more support. And the US hasn't been at maintaining those kinds of support during the epidemic. Edit: The US life expectancy decline relative to other advanced nations is relevant. Take a look at the following chart in detail. US life expectancy was set back twenty years. No other nation was set by more than ten years. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/ https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-lif...
  - throwawayboise 5y ago
    And makes people more vulnerable when they contract other diseases. COVID hits harder if you are diabetic and/or obese, for example. The people who try to promote body positivity are doing a disservice to the overweight. You cannot be healthy and fat, and we should not pretend otherwise to spare hurt feelings.
    - syshum 5y ago
      Body Positivity movement started out with a good goal, but went off the rails with the obesity == healthy BS. However if you want to solve obesity, especially the morbid obesity shamming will never resolve that as chances are the obesity is cased by an underlying metal or medical issue. most often an anxiety disorder of some kind, and socially shaming someone that suffers from anxiety is not going to cure them, and in fact will most likely make their eating disorder worse.
      - thebooktocome 5y ago
        The primary cause of obesity — in my experience, as a midwesterner — is a lack of access to affordable, healthy food. What people can afford (in terms of money/time/opportunity cost) is primarily overprocessed garbage. It’s mostly impossible to maintain a healthy weight in such an environment. Yes, I’m aware of the twinkie diet guy. Most people aren’t the twinkie diet guy.
- reaperducer 5y ago
  At least the people you know are rational enough to admit it. A tangential relative died a couple of months ago from a drug overdose. Her immediate family tells everyone she died from the COVID vaccine. Apparently now it's a thing among families who can't come to grips with a drug death to blame the new vaccines. I wonder if this is where the conspiracy theorists get their ammunition.
- Jansen312 5y ago
  But those died due to illegal drugs won't be elligible for insurance claim. It is strange the article only showing 40% increase in deaths. I would like to see the breakdown. Is it mostly due to heart-related deaths like stroke or cardiac arrest? How many of them has been vaccinated? How many due to natural and unnaturql causes. What I have heard was some deaths due to cardiac arrests in young people. And these are routinely classified as "natural". I like to see numbers backing that. We know vaccine caused heart inflammations and deaths. What we don't see is numbers refuting that and strange for our pharma to wait 75 years to disclose their findings. Do they need to edit the reports that already submitted to FDA?
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  So glad that drug isn't yet popular in my country. Although last summer it already surfaced to a noticeable degree.
Retric 5y ago
> something has happened Changes in death rates directly relate to relative vaccination rates. Vaccination was initially rolled out to the elderly they where also more willing to get vaccinated. It’s strange to think that 75 year olds grew up in a time period where several horrific diseases disappeared due to vaccination efforts. It it’s clear they have a lot more faith in vaccination. https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-C...
cik2e 5y ago
It's strange that this article doesn't actually mention the number of deaths for each year. They only mention the 40% increase for the younger demographic and the source says "the increase in deaths represents huge, huge numbers". Let's assume deaths for older people haven't changed so the increase is entirely among the younger group. x: younger y: older 1.4x + y = 1350 x + y = 1319 0.4x = 31 x = 77.5 (younger 2020) 1.4x = 108.5 (younger 2021) y = 1241.5 (older 2020 and 20201) So assuming no increase in non-COVID deaths in the older group, we have 77.5 deaths in 2020 and 108.5 deaths in 2021 in the younger demographic. The actual numbers would be even lower since there have obviously been deaths in the older population. Unless I am embarrassingly wrong on the calculation, these figures don't make sense. The source says this 40% increase figure is based on his life insurance customers who are “primarily working-age people 18 to 64”. This being just among his policy holders could explain the tiny absolute figures in the younger group. But where are the numbers for the older group coming from? His statement doesn't exclude the possibility of policies for ages < 18 and > 64. But if that's a small fraction of their customer base, it would imply a huge death rate for the older policy holders. These numbers seem very fishy. Even if his older members are dying at astronomical rates and his numbers are correct, this is about as far from a representative sample as you could get and cannot be extrapolated to the general population. And I assume that's what the source means when he says "the increase in deaths represents huge, huge numbers." By the way, I am not implying that there hasn't been an increase in non-COVID deaths among the young and old in these last two years. We know that's the because there is actually real data on this that the article could have included.
- shrimpx 5y ago
  It could be due to random perturbations in the small data size. Like if 10 people died last year, and 14 people died this year, deaths are up 40%, but the 4 extra deaths could be random. You'd have to look at a long trend to infer meaning from such small data. But I'm not sure how big the data is in this case. Something similar happened in my town when I saw a huge-looking spike in a graph of covid deaths. But when I looked closer, deaths had spiked from 0 to 3 on a particular day, and the average is 0.3/day. So that crazy looking spike is probably meaningless over a longer time window.
redisman 5y ago
Very anecdotal but me and everyone I know is in crappy shape and fallen to different coping mechanisms during Covid
joe_the_user 5y ago
Well a lot of people were avoiding medical care (precisely because of Covid concerns), so this makes some sense. Couple that with the increased death rate for younger people and something has happened to worsen the health and outcomes generally for that population. Cue wild speculation and theories. Not sure how your first two sentences above aren't speculation. It's like you're preemptively attack all the other speculation as "wild".
divbzero 5y ago
> Cue wild speculation and theories. There is uncertainty in many areas of life, but this seems like one thing we don’t have to speculate about. We will not only have definitive data [1] within a couple years, but also annual [2] and weekly [3] provisional data much sooner. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm [3]: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-S/muzy-jte6 https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Provisional-Counts-of-Death...
mcguire 5y ago
"1,350 versus 1,319" Without knowing anything else, I seriously doubt that is statistically significant. The normal pre-COVID ICU bed occupancy rate was somewhere near 57-82% (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/). 54% is quite low. I suspect that the bar for getting into an ICU bed has been raised by the number of COVID patients. BTW, Indiana has ~1,940 ICU beds (https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/indiana-releases-specific-icu-bed-ventilator-numbers https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/indiana-releases-specific...). In numbers, that means * ~173 are unoccupied, * ~718 are occupied by COVID patients, and * ~1048 are occupied by non-COVID patients.
- masswerk 5y ago
  > Without knowing anything else, I seriously doubt that is statistically significant. It's literally the population, not a sample.
  - mcguire 5y ago
    It's also a change of about 2%.

fuckyah 5y ago

ganoushoreilly 5y ago

Within my brothers circle of friends / former friends etc, amongst those that participate in recreational drug use, there have been a crazy number of Fentanyl related deaths. They're all between the ages of 25 - 30. I can't help but wonder how much this has an impact.

PragmaticPulp 5y ago
All of the non-COVID deaths I’ve heard of among younger people (<60) from my extended social circle and their family/friends have been drug related. Working from home can remove a lot of the accountability that keeps addicts in check. When your coworkers can’t see you, it’s much easier to be inebriated or otherwise suffering from addiction-related issues without feeling social pressure to correct it.
- tomcam 5y ago
  Thank you for saying < 60 is young!
- jeffbee 5y ago
  That's pretty normal, at least for the last few decades of American life. There is not a major natural cause of death for people 18-65. They die of suicide, accidental overdoses, and car crashes.
  - stavros 5y ago
    When we say "overdoses", doesn't it sound like the person's fault, when it was probably that they were sold a poisoned/cut batch? I wonder how many "overdoses" would have been avoided if you could buy drugs at a pharmacy.
    - prirun 5y ago
      A lot of times an overdose occurs if a person got clean for a while then went back to using. They tend to start using at their previous levels even though their body is no longer used to that level, so it's a sudden jolt that kills them. So I've read - I have zero experience with drugs, luckily.
      - stavros 5y ago
        Yeah, I've read that too, but I have no idea which is more frequent. I'd assume the tainted drugs are more frequent, just because getting tainted product is more frequent than getting clean and relapsing, but I don't know. I'll definitely recommend LSD or mushrooms, though. They are lots of fun.
    - worik 5y ago
      Almost all, if there were some sensible regulation. People do not die from smoking opium, much. But die a lot from popping pills. Concentrated synthetic opioids are deadly.
- 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nerdbaggy 5y ago
Correct! “ The synthetic and highly addictive drug has claimed more lives than COVID-19, auto crashes, gun violence, cancer and suicide in the year 2020.” https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-death-for-adults-18-45-recent-government-data-says/article_ed0bfe28-5f79-11ec-8aa0-af3f6cbff03c.html https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-deat...
- jeffbee 5y ago
  No byline. No sources. Bad article. The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error.
  - mlyle 5y ago
    > The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error. I don't think it does. Sure, they throw out the 100k overdoses number at the end, which isn't specific to fentanyl, but the other numbers they cite are around 40k/year and a run rate of 64k/year by Deceber 2021. Current data is here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm It's about 62k deaths from synthetic opioids/year (excluding methadone) at the end of the series-- the vast majority of these are fentanyl. Plus a bunch of heroin deaths which are rapidly becoming "really fentanyl" deaths. And that's up to April, not December.
    - jeffbee 5y ago
      That data is for all ages. If you go to WISQARS and filter for ages 18-45, which is the subject of the news site's article, it looks to me like the numbers they are giving in the article are the same as the total number of accidental poisoning.
      - mlyle 5y ago
        They're pulling from this fact sheet: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S0szR2Ua9v0Sr91YhDD7gPrXsDkHxDvP/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S0szR2Ua9v0Sr91YhDD7gPrXsDk... Topic 1 is on ages 18-45: more deaths from fentanyl than from... The later topics are on all ages. The fact sheet attributes 24k deaths in the age range to fentanyl in 2019. WISQARS accidental injuries from poisoning in the age range were 38k in 2019. 2/3rds in that age range being fentanyl is totally plausible. https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D157;jsessionid=7A04C7DC8D17F0A5FA2103363BB7 https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D157;jsessioni... has the broken down data. They have 36,907 deaths in 2020 from 18-45 with T40.4-- "other synthetic opioids excluding methadone". FAF is calling all deaths from synthetic opioids fentanyl, which isn't quite true but it's very likely close to true.
3maj 5y ago
Probably a big one. Drug overdoses have killed more 18-54 year olds in Canada than Covid has. Hell, in British Columbia there have been more drug overdoses than Covid deaths across all ages.
exdsq 5y ago
I read fentanyl killed more people than Covid in SF last year - don’t think there were any age brackets on that either
dillondoyle 5y ago
And it's not just opiate users. People buying coke & 'molly' are overdosing too from fent and analogues too. Why in the world would a dealer put fent into coke. I guess a speedball feels great but the average weekend partier doing a bump or a pill are not looking to walk that death tightrope. Just sad all around and we still have a long way to go with stigma and science based treatment. If you happen to be in that scene might be a good idea to start carrying naloxone.
- worik 5y ago
  A very powerful argument for legalising forms of those drugs for recreational use.
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    Yea please! Decriminalizing would be a great first step but won't cut out the cartels and gangs and adulteration (kind word for poisoning..) Would also love to see over the counter narcan. suboxone for any who wants it without the compliance burden.
    - slapshot 5y ago
      Narcan is available "behind the counter" in most states. You have to ask for it, but a prescription isn't required.[1] [1] https://www.cvs.com/content/prescription-drug-abuse/save-a-life https://www.cvs.com/content/prescription-drug-abuse/save-a-l...
      - dillondoyle 5y ago
        I know there were a few people organizing on reddit too where they would ship it if you can't access it easily too! I think it was a lady on /r/opiates
- Tiktaalik 5y ago
  Yep. It's not an opioid epidemic or crisis, it's a toxic drug crisis. The drugs are poisoned. No one knows what's in them. There's a drug test site in my city that regularly posts examples of what they find on twitter. Totally random ultra dangerous poisons in party drugs. All the time. Here's an example: a drug not safe for humans in a test sample of MDMA. https://twitter.com/GYDTcanada/status/1477444546480984065?s=20 https://twitter.com/GYDTcanada/status/1477444546480984065?s=... People are dying because they're doing some thing and they have no idea what it is. It's impossible to use drugs safely in such a situation.
joe_the_user 5y ago
US has had both a drug-addiction epidemic, a diabetes epidemic and an obesity epidemic. Each these conditions doesn't just reduce lifespan. They also put people in a more fragile life-situation where they need more support. And the US hasn't been at maintaining those kinds of support during the epidemic. Edit: The US life expectancy decline relative to other advanced nations is relevant. Take a look at the following chart in detail. US life expectancy was set back twenty years. No other nation was set by more than ten years. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/ https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-lif...
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  And makes people more vulnerable when they contract other diseases. COVID hits harder if you are diabetic and/or obese, for example. The people who try to promote body positivity are doing a disservice to the overweight. You cannot be healthy and fat, and we should not pretend otherwise to spare hurt feelings.
  - syshum 5y ago
    Body Positivity movement started out with a good goal, but went off the rails with the obesity == healthy BS. However if you want to solve obesity, especially the morbid obesity shamming will never resolve that as chances are the obesity is cased by an underlying metal or medical issue. most often an anxiety disorder of some kind, and socially shaming someone that suffers from anxiety is not going to cure them, and in fact will most likely make their eating disorder worse.
    - thebooktocome 5y ago
      The primary cause of obesity — in my experience, as a midwesterner — is a lack of access to affordable, healthy food. What people can afford (in terms of money/time/opportunity cost) is primarily overprocessed garbage. It’s mostly impossible to maintain a healthy weight in such an environment. Yes, I’m aware of the twinkie diet guy. Most people aren’t the twinkie diet guy.
reaperducer 5y ago
At least the people you know are rational enough to admit it. A tangential relative died a couple of months ago from a drug overdose. Her immediate family tells everyone she died from the COVID vaccine. Apparently now it's a thing among families who can't come to grips with a drug death to blame the new vaccines. I wonder if this is where the conspiracy theorists get their ammunition.
Jansen312 5y ago
But those died due to illegal drugs won't be elligible for insurance claim. It is strange the article only showing 40% increase in deaths. I would like to see the breakdown. Is it mostly due to heart-related deaths like stroke or cardiac arrest? How many of them has been vaccinated? How many due to natural and unnaturql causes. What I have heard was some deaths due to cardiac arrests in young people. And these are routinely classified as "natural". I like to see numbers backing that. We know vaccine caused heart inflammations and deaths. What we don't see is numbers refuting that and strange for our pharma to wait 75 years to disclose their findings. Do they need to edit the reports that already submitted to FDA?
raxxorrax 5y ago
So glad that drug isn't yet popular in my country. Although last summer it already surfaced to a noticeable degree.

Retric 5y ago

> something has happened Changes in death rates directly relate to relative vaccination rates. Vaccination was initially rolled out to the elderly they where also more willing to get vaccinated. It’s strange to think that 75 year olds grew up in a time period where several horrific diseases disappeared due to vaccination efforts. It it’s clear they have a lot more faith in vaccination. https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-C...

cik2e 5y ago

It's strange that this article doesn't actually mention the number of deaths for each year. They only mention the 40% increase for the younger demographic and the source says "the increase in deaths represents huge, huge numbers". Let's assume deaths for older people haven't changed so the increase is entirely among the younger group. x: younger y: older 1.4x + y = 1350 x + y = 1319 0.4x = 31 x = 77.5 (younger 2020) 1.4x = 108.5 (younger 2021) y = 1241.5 (older 2020 and 20201) So assuming no increase in non-COVID deaths in the older group, we have 77.5 deaths in 2020 and 108.5 deaths in 2021 in the younger demographic. The actual numbers would be even lower since there have obviously been deaths in the older population. Unless I am embarrassingly wrong on the calculation, these figures don't make sense. The source says this 40% increase figure is based on his life insurance customers who are “primarily working-age people 18 to 64”. This being just among his policy holders could explain the tiny absolute figures in the younger group. But where are the numbers for the older group coming from? His statement doesn't exclude the possibility of policies for ages < 18 and > 64. But if that's a small fraction of their customer base, it would imply a huge death rate for the older policy holders. These numbers seem very fishy. Even if his older members are dying at astronomical rates and his numbers are correct, this is about as far from a representative sample as you could get and cannot be extrapolated to the general population. And I assume that's what the source means when he says "the increase in deaths represents huge, huge numbers." By the way, I am not implying that there hasn't been an increase in non-COVID deaths among the young and old in these last two years. We know that's the because there is actually real data on this that the article could have included.

shrimpx 5y ago
It could be due to random perturbations in the small data size. Like if 10 people died last year, and 14 people died this year, deaths are up 40%, but the 4 extra deaths could be random. You'd have to look at a long trend to infer meaning from such small data. But I'm not sure how big the data is in this case. Something similar happened in my town when I saw a huge-looking spike in a graph of covid deaths. But when I looked closer, deaths had spiked from 0 to 3 on a particular day, and the average is 0.3/day. So that crazy looking spike is probably meaningless over a longer time window.

redisman 5y ago

Very anecdotal but me and everyone I know is in crappy shape and fallen to different coping mechanisms during Covid

joe_the_user 5y ago

Well a lot of people were avoiding medical care (precisely because of Covid concerns), so this makes some sense. Couple that with the increased death rate for younger people and something has happened to worsen the health and outcomes generally for that population. Cue wild speculation and theories. Not sure how your first two sentences above aren't speculation. It's like you're preemptively attack all the other speculation as "wild".

divbzero 5y ago

> Cue wild speculation and theories. There is uncertainty in many areas of life, but this seems like one thing we don’t have to speculate about. We will not only have definitive data [1] within a couple years, but also annual [2] and weekly [3] provisional data much sooner. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm [2]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm [3]: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-S/muzy-jte6 https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Provisional-Counts-of-Death...

mcguire 5y ago

"1,350 versus 1,319" Without knowing anything else, I seriously doubt that is statistically significant. The normal pre-COVID ICU bed occupancy rate was somewhere near 57-82% (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/). 54% is quite low. I suspect that the bar for getting into an ICU bed has been raised by the number of COVID patients. BTW, Indiana has ~1,940 ICU beds (https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/indiana-releases-specific-icu-bed-ventilator-numbers https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/indiana-releases-specific...). In numbers, that means * ~173 are unoccupied, * ~718 are occupied by COVID patients, and * ~1048 are occupied by non-COVID patients.

masswerk 5y ago
> Without knowing anything else, I seriously doubt that is statistically significant. It's literally the population, not a sample.
- mcguire 5y ago
  It's also a change of about 2%.