8 ms·

80% of SA has already been infected and thus has some measure of immunity and prior culling, as well as an average age 1-2 decades younger than most developed n

80% of SA has already been infected and thus has some measure of immunity and prior culling, as well as an average age 1-2 decades younger than most developed nations https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/deaths-data-shows-80-of-south-africans-may-have-had-covid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/deaths-da...

walterbell 5y ago
Nice to see natural immunity being recognized as a talking point, although the Danish sample shows prior infection is much more protective against Delta than Omicron. What percentage of US and UK have already been infected?
- nyolfen 5y ago
  1/3 of americans as of a few months ago https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-2020 https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news...
  - runako 5y ago
    That's as of end of 2020, before the big waves this year (IIRC more people have died of Covid in the US in 2021 than in 2020). More recent CDC estimate suggests the total number of infections is closer to 146 million[1]. I'm not sure how they are handling repeat infections, but nonetheless it sounds like their model has the US population at higher than 1/3 infected. 1 - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html#est-infections https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- ericmay 5y ago
  We know that natural immunity (don’t forget it’s not forever - it doesn’t protect against sufficient mutations) is going to happen so the idea that it isn’t recognize or wasn’t recognized is incorrect. What we are concerned about is how many people have to die from a preventable disease while this herd immunity naturally comes to bear.
  - WillPostForFood 5y ago
    It isn’t recognized in the sense that you can show a vax card to get in a restaurant or on a flight, but not proof of previous infection.
    - monopoledance 5y ago
      In Germany you can. I am sure that's true for many regions. However, the granted protection status doesn't last as long as full vaccination.
    - zorpner 5y ago
      First, this is not totally accurate -- you can board flights with literally no proof of anything, and international travel often does permit an affidavit of prior infection. Second, just get a vaccine, jfc. Been infected? Great, now you're even more immune. Do one easy thing for your fellow humans. Can't? Plenty of documentable, obtainable exceptions. Won't? Fine. Don't avail yourself of the luxuries which are the result of humans working together to build something. Easy.
      - colordrops 5y ago
        Why not base policy on science and data rather than an apeal to "unity"
    - lovecg 5y ago
      I believe some countries do recognize it (Germany maybe?)
      - brazzy 5y ago
        Yes, definitely the case in Germany.
      - ulric260 5y ago
        Yes, in EU people who have recovered from Covid get the EU digital certificate. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/eu-digital-covid-certificate/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/eu-d...
- nradov 5y ago
  The CDC estimated that 45% of Americans had been infected as of September 2021, so probably closer to 50% by now. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    That's insane. The # here in Ontario, Canada is just over 4%.
    - geerlingguy 5y ago
      To the coronavirus, that sounds like an opportunity.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        To a suitably changed virus any population of a certain size and density is an opportunity.
    - kube-system 5y ago
      4% is the estimate or known cases?
      - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
        Known cases, positive test results only. But even if you doubled or tripled you'd be nowhere near 45%.
        kube-system 5y ago
        Assuming 2x or 3x is a reasonable factor between reported cases and total infections. US current official CDC estimates are 4x, and Canada has a lower testing rate (almost half) than the US. Earlier on, US estimated infections were 10x the reported count. Some studies for other developed countries have estimates that approach 30x. IMO, 8x doesn't seem like an unreasonable WAG given this. I searched Canada's official resources, but I couldn't find anywhere that they publish their own estimates.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Also in Guateng, ~75% of adults are vaccinated. That's better than most parts of the US and even a lot of places in Europe. There's just more <18 year olds in SA.
wesleywt 5y ago
You are making an assumption that is dubious . Please link to the study or statistic by a reputable source that we, South African have had 80% infection rates.
- nyolfen 5y ago
  i literally linked a citation at the bottom of the post

walterbell 5y ago

Nice to see natural immunity being recognized as a talking point, although the Danish sample shows prior infection is much more protective against Delta than Omicron. What percentage of US and UK have already been infected?

nyolfen 5y ago
1/3 of americans as of a few months ago https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-2020 https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news...
- runako 5y ago
  That's as of end of 2020, before the big waves this year (IIRC more people have died of Covid in the US in 2021 than in 2020). More recent CDC estimate suggests the total number of infections is closer to 146 million[1]. I'm not sure how they are handling repeat infections, but nonetheless it sounds like their model has the US population at higher than 1/3 infected. 1 - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html#est-infections https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
ericmay 5y ago
We know that natural immunity (don’t forget it’s not forever - it doesn’t protect against sufficient mutations) is going to happen so the idea that it isn’t recognize or wasn’t recognized is incorrect. What we are concerned about is how many people have to die from a preventable disease while this herd immunity naturally comes to bear.
- WillPostForFood 5y ago
  It isn’t recognized in the sense that you can show a vax card to get in a restaurant or on a flight, but not proof of previous infection.
  - monopoledance 5y ago
    In Germany you can. I am sure that's true for many regions. However, the granted protection status doesn't last as long as full vaccination.
  - zorpner 5y ago
    First, this is not totally accurate -- you can board flights with literally no proof of anything, and international travel often does permit an affidavit of prior infection. Second, just get a vaccine, jfc. Been infected? Great, now you're even more immune. Do one easy thing for your fellow humans. Can't? Plenty of documentable, obtainable exceptions. Won't? Fine. Don't avail yourself of the luxuries which are the result of humans working together to build something. Easy.
    - colordrops 5y ago
      Why not base policy on science and data rather than an apeal to "unity"
  - lovecg 5y ago
    I believe some countries do recognize it (Germany maybe?)
    - brazzy 5y ago
      Yes, definitely the case in Germany.
    - ulric260 5y ago
      Yes, in EU people who have recovered from Covid get the EU digital certificate. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/eu-digital-covid-certificate/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/eu-d...
nradov 5y ago
The CDC estimated that 45% of Americans had been infected as of September 2021, so probably closer to 50% by now. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  That's insane. The # here in Ontario, Canada is just over 4%.
  - geerlingguy 5y ago
    To the coronavirus, that sounds like an opportunity.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      To a suitably changed virus any population of a certain size and density is an opportunity.
  - kube-system 5y ago
    4% is the estimate or known cases?
    - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
      Known cases, positive test results only. But even if you doubled or tripled you'd be nowhere near 45%.
      - kube-system 5y ago
        Assuming 2x or 3x is a reasonable factor between reported cases and total infections. US current official CDC estimates are 4x, and Canada has a lower testing rate (almost half) than the US. Earlier on, US estimated infections were 10x the reported count. Some studies for other developed countries have estimates that approach 30x. IMO, 8x doesn't seem like an unreasonable WAG given this. I searched Canada's official resources, but I couldn't find anywhere that they publish their own estimates.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Also in Guateng, ~75% of adults are vaccinated. That's better than most parts of the US and even a lot of places in Europe. There's just more <18 year olds in SA.

wesleywt 5y ago

You are making an assumption that is dubious . Please link to the study or statistic by a reputable source that we, South African have had 80% infection rates.

nyolfen 5y ago
i literally linked a citation at the bottom of the post