17 ms·

Myocarditis associated with Covid-19 compared to mRNA vaccines

156 points by mderazon 5y ago

docflabby 5y ago
Something else to consider which hasn't been addresses in any studies so far is does the risk of myocarditis change depending on the variant of covid - it's possible omicron is more or less likely to cause it dues to wide range of mutations. This will obviously impact the risk/reward in younger cohorts
HamburgerEmoji 5y ago
Uh oh -- is some stuff from reality actually managing to smash its way into the Hacker News Super Curiosity Zone? Hurry, you better flag it. Here's this, from two months ago. https://rumble.com/vnbv86-winning-the-war-against-therapeutic-nihilism-and-trusted-treatments-vs-unte.html https://rumble.com/vnbv86-winning-the-war-against-therapeuti...
walterbell 5y ago
Ontario, Canada suspended Moderna for 18-24, https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-over-moderna-for-people-18-to-24-effective-immediately-1.5605370 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-1... Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway suspended Moderna for people under 30, https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/11/10/germany-france-restrict-modernas-covid-vaccine-for-under-30s-over-rare-heart-risk-despite-surging-cases/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/11/10/germany-f... Moderna contains 100 mcg of mRNA vs Pfizer's 30 mcg, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/pfizer-moderna-dose-which-vaccine-best/620501/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/pfizer-mo... Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters?
- fabian2k 5y ago
  The Moderna booster is only 50ug RNA. There is a whole bunch of trials now on mixing vaccines, but of course the number of specific combinations is very large. It does look like mixing works well, and there are some indications that mixing leads to a better response, this has been observed in particular for AZ/Biontech. I got three different vaccines, following the recommendations at the time. So at least here in Germany we do freely mix them.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Same here, started with AZ, got BionTech second and the booster was Moderna. One of the good things right now is, that we have quite a large choice of vaccines at the moment.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    > The Moderna booster is only 50ug RNA. Could someone take this Moderna 50ug dose as their 1st/2nd shot?
    - chinathrow 5y ago
      Ask your doctor.
      - throwaway59553 5y ago
        Most regular doctors have no clue about it, as it's not their specialty, they just parrot the governmental institutions official position, such as "take the vaccine". Hence the necessity of long term independent studies on the effect of each vaccine and the combinations of several vaccine, if people mix them when getting a booster.
      - tim333 5y ago
        On of the troubles with anything unconventional is it probably won't be recognised on the various vaccine passes and the like.
  - dablweb 5y ago
    Wouldn't mixing significantly reduce your chance at legal recourse should you have a severe reaction?
    - jktogjfnn 5y ago
      Lawsuits against who? The vaccine producers already have immunity. So that leaves you to sue the local authorities, so if they recommended mix-and-match you have cover.
- viraptor 5y ago
  > Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters? https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/mixing-vaccines-the-study-weve-all https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/mixing-vaccin...
- GistNoesis 5y ago
  >Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters? Why do clinical trials when you can do live trials for free. Just wait a few month and look at the situation in France. France bought a huge stock of Moderna but people there only want Pfizer, so now they have a huge stock of Moderna and a shortage of Pfizer. So to re-balance their inventory they decided that people over 30 can no longer have the choice of what vaccine they get. And they have also recently speed-up vaccination effort by requiring to have a less than 7 month injection/contamination after January the 15th or be severely constrained in daily life. So in about two months, you'll have a huge influx of guinea pigs data. So if you just turned 30 and never vaccinated you are up for the Moderna huge dose that they tell you they consider not safe for people a few days younger than you are, (and the dosage was probably too heavy because it has now been reduced for the boosters).
  - walterbell 5y ago
    Thanks for the field report. Wish we could organize a open-source data collection exercise for live trials and input parameters with regional/policy path dependence. That could enable retroactive analysis across inadvertent cohorts.
  - dablweb 5y ago
    It's astonishing that the majority of people can look at this situation and not recoil. The whole "mix and match" narrative is just so misguided. I do wonder if it's being pushed as a way to dilute possible lawsuits.
    - walterbell 5y ago
      Random choices, permutations and timing of vendors will make it difficult to determine cause and effect. No control groups. If there are future adverse events, they may be attributed to a specific human rather than a cohort of peers. This could justify more observational surveillance and testing, laying the groundwork for future personalized treatments, including unique vaccines. In that hypothetical scenario, rare injuries could lead to more live trials on those humans.
    - deleted 5y ago
nabla9 5y ago
Summary. >We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower than the 40 extra events per million persons observed following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. (risk increased only among those younger than 40).
- funklute 5y ago
  > Vaccination increases the risk of myocarditis. Relative to the base-level in a pre-covid world?
  - eloff 5y ago
    Yes. According to this same study covid-19 has a 4x higher incidence of myocarditis than the "worst" of the mRNA vaccines. So the smart bet is still get the vaccine. That's not even accounting for all the other effects of a covid illness, including death.
    - Thorrez 5y ago
      I think there's a misunderstanding. funklute was asking about the pre-covid world, but your answer is about people who have covid.
  - nabla9 5y ago
    adjusted for calendar time from 1 December 2020 to 24 August 2021
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- trhway 5y ago
  >Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. only when covid gets to 25% of population. Until that the vaccine results in higher risk of myocarditis than covid. And if we use cut-off of 40 years age, then the risk is even more worse with vaccine.
echelon_musk 5y ago
Thank you for posting this. I received my 1st Pfizer vaccine in June and around 3 weeks after the vaccine I started experiencing frequent irregular heartbeats. Sometimes it was every day, then sometimes once or twice a week. I still experience ectopic heartbeat now (although much less frequently) as a result of the vaccine 6 months later. I used to drink lots of coffee, but quit all caffeine in my life due to the risk to my heart! I reported this to the yellow card scheme, but I'm very glad to see more research being done and awareness.
- matsemann 5y ago
  > as a result of the vaccine Can you really know that?
  - arein3 5y ago
    Must have been a coincidence
- stanislavb 5y ago
  Yeah, I think I’m experiencing the same thing :/… I just hope it goes away
- chki 5y ago
  > I received my 1st Pfizer vaccine in June and around 3 weeks after the vaccine I started experiencing frequent irregular heartbeats. Sometimes it was every day, then sometimes once or twice a week. I still experience ectopic heartbeat now (although much less frequently) as a result of the vaccine 6 months later. Way before Covid I had a panic attack which led me to believe that my heart was not working properly. I got everything checked and it was all good but in the following months I regularly noticed irregularities which have since subsided. I'm almost sure that this was not due to any actual change but the main reason was that I was simply observing my heartbeat much more closely, feeling my heart racing etc. which was in turn actually making my heartbeat more irregular. Of course your problem might be more physiological but I just want to point out that mind and body are closely connected and it's very difficult to observe such an effect and pinpoint it to a certain event (for example the vaccination).
jaidan 5y ago
Australia has been reporting 1 in 10000 rate for myocarditis in 11-17 year olds and is ramping up their campaign to get more high school kids vaccinated. Table 2: https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-09-12-2021 https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safe... The article linked in another reply (https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-over-moderna-for-people-18-to-24-effective-immediately-1.5605370 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-1...) for Canada suggested they stopped the Moderna Vaccines at a rate of 1 in 28000. I wonder, what rates determine when action is taken?
- amelius 5y ago
  When the rates become higher than for the virus itself.
  - teekert 5y ago
    Ideally yes. But keep in mind that many effect (both of the virus and the vaccines) are still not taken into account. Doing that would mean this exact point would move almost constantly, which would be good imho, but I can imagine this does not fly in general.
- eloff 5y ago
  Keep in mind the covid-19 has a myocarditis rate of 1 in 25000 according to this same study. 4x higher than with the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine - and that's not counting all the other risks that come with a covid infection - including death.
  - MarcoZavala 5y ago
  - jcbrand 5y ago
    1 in 10000 isn't much less than 1 in 25000. Also, with the booster regime being implemented, you're going to regularly be taking that risk, whereas people rarely (according to Peter McCullough "never") get reinfected with Covid. People also die from the vaccine. There are 18000 reported deaths from the vaccine in VAERs. Just recently a 12 year old schoolgirl in Cuxhaven, Germany died from the vaccine.
roschdal 5y ago
"We found increased risks of myocarditis associated with the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine over the 1–28 days postvaccination period, and after a SARS-CoV-2 positive test." So the Pfizer gave me increased risk of heart inflammation. Thank you very much.
- GameOfFrowns 5y ago
  At least the manufacturer has immunity.
- roschdal 5y ago
  Why the downvotes HN? Do you not like facts?
- bildung 5y ago
  Read the summary again. Even the vaccine with the highest risk only had 1/4 of the risk of proper SARS-CoV-2.
- antocv 5y ago
  What did you expect, Pfizer wanted to make drug for dealing with a heart problem, hypertension, but made erections by accident instead.
- BirdieNZ 5y ago
  Decreased* risk of heart inflammation compared to catching Covid without the vaccine.
  - Nesco 5y ago
    It seems that the study doesn’t have a control group and everyone studied is _vaccinated_. I don’t know where you found your numbers about the unvaccinated.
    - fsh 5y ago
      This is incorrect. Most of the SARS-CoV-2 positive persons in the study (2,315,669/3,028,867) were unvaccinated at the time of infection.
prohobo 5y ago
Finally, some real information.. Three points of note: 1) The number of Covid infections is likely either over-reported or under-reported. That could push the results in either direction. 2) The end results are an average of men and women; if separated they would show men are more susceptible to myocarditis (higher than 15 per million for <40 in Moderna's case). 3) We don't know how boosters will affect these rates.
- ImaCake 5y ago
  How can COVID infections be over reported? They are obviously underreported in the total population due to the limitations of testing. Is the over-reporting risk a matter of how they adjusted their data in this study?
  - detaro 5y ago
    I could see it happening if your data source works of raw test result statistics, since you don't know how often the same person was tested. But that doesn't sound like it is the case here, since they reference a specific database they use "at individual patient level".
  - me_me_me 5y ago
    I think its a mute point anyway, excess deaths are hard to argue statistic. Also hard to explain with any other means than Covid.
    - trompetenaccoun 5y ago
      Interesting point you're making about excess deaths being hard to argue. Have you looked at the data? Because some countries don't show any significant excess (some even record negative excess during the pandemic) while in some other places we're only seeing access deaths since mass vaccination started. Conveniently, many who want to argue that covid vaccines help only pick places where the data seems to show what they want to see, ignoring all the opposite examples and that correlation doesn't imply causation.
gadders 5y ago
On the, er, spicier ends of Telegram people have been keeping logs of football (soccer) players that have been having heart issues recently. There have also been stories about people having heart issues due to "post-pandemic stress disorder" [1] I'm not saying that I think the vaccine causes heart issues, but I definitely think governments wouldn't tell you the truth if it did. [1] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-disorder-heart-conditions-covid-london-physicians-b969436.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-...
- zpeti 5y ago
  I'd be super interested in the data on this - breaking down these pro athlete issues by - who's vaccinated and hasn't had a positive PCR test - who's vaccinated and has had a positive PCR test - who's unvaccinated Until that is clear, all these stories are basically clickbait. These issues could be caused by covid, the vaccines, or both. We just don't know.
- consp 5y ago
  > but I definitely think governments wouldn't tell you the truth if it did Think a bit more about this. How many countries, how many people, how many hospitals you would have to silence to make that happen. Also with respect to the football player. As far as I can tell it's been going around quite long and people are just noticing it more due to some highly televised event.
  - throwawayacc2 5y ago
    You don’t really need to silence them. Just ignore them and relegate them to the fringes. “What? More and more people are having heart issues after vaccination? Hogwash! It’s post pandemic stress, nothing special, you’re just being a conspiracy theorist! And we all know conspiracy theorist is just one step away from far right and we don’t listen to nazis here”. Sounds familiar?
    - eloff 5y ago
      They can say all that. The old adage about how to tell if a politician is lying - if their lips are moving - applies. But the data cannot simply be hand-waved away by politicians, nor easily controlled in the West. Look at what medical experts say when they publish analysis about the data - and you get as near to the truth as you can reasonably hope.
roschdal 5y ago
"We found increased risks of myocarditis associated with the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine over the 1–28 days postvaccination period, and after a SARS-CoV-2 positive test."
- ImaCake 5y ago
  The much more interesting quote is of the magnitude of events. COVID is much more likely to cause myocarditis: “We estimated an extra two (95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3), one (95% CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million people vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, in the 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million patients in the 28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test”
ppaattrriicckk 5y ago
This probably sounds harsh, but are all vaccine-bashing readers deliberately selectively-illiterate? In the abstract (academic for "TL;DR") it literally states that Covid is between 7 and 40 times more likely to cause Myocarditis. And a lot of you write about palpitations, which can also be caused by stress and anxiety. I'm 30, in good physical shape, and used to have weekly episodes with irregular heartbeats due to severe stress. Now I'm vaccinated (which is for 99.999% of us obviously completely irrelevant to experiencing this, but a lot of commenters draw that conclusion) and the palpitations are gone. Let's not base conclusion on anecdotal evidence, please. For the same reason that my grandpa lived until 85 while smoking since he was 13.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mirker 5y ago
  I’ve had palpitations before from having too much caffeine regularly (yes, while stressed).
- tudorizer 5y ago
  Strange, right? So much focus on edge cases.
- whitepaint 5y ago
  If you already had Covid, should you get vaccinated?
  - y7 5y ago
    Yes. See https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-13 https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-updat...
    - whitepaint 5y ago
      "Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare . " https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe...
intricatedetail 5y ago
I had heart issues, still have shortness of breath and headaches after second dose. I have not reported it but I was close to calling ambulance one night. I lost faith in doctors here. They are laser focused on jabbing everything that moves and apparently they get £15 for each jabbed person. It's disgusting.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  You should report it.
- viraptor 5y ago
  You can find the exact billing per vaccine from NHS, (was £12.57 end of last year) but keep in mind that goes to the doctor, nurse, admin staff handling bookings, disposables budget, and all costs related to running the clinic. Doctors see a small percentage of that. The same thing happens for most of GP services. You don't expect them to work for free, do you? For the NHS itself is still likely cheaper than what a meltdown of hospital services would cost.
  - intricatedetail 5y ago
    I thought they are paid salary. Isn't giving jabs part of their job?
    - viraptor 5y ago
      A lot are salaried, some aren't, there's a number of models active at the same time. But NHS still has the ability to give incentives for things that are a benefit to everyone, like paying extra for vaccinations, screening for preventable diseases, etc. to give them priority. Also extra pay allows some clinics to run out of hours / weekend vaccination.
antocv 5y ago
Age group 30-39 has higher risk from pfizer than positive covid-19 test, if Im reading this table correctly, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0/tables/1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0/tables/1 ouch.
- zpeti 5y ago
  And with moderna, 16-29 agegroup risk is 41.4 with vaccine vs 24.4 covid. Wow.
  - antocv 5y ago
    But the TL;DR says "take the vaccine its better than covid". Statistics and damn lies.
    - maxerickson 5y ago
      Edit: See comment below, I put the wrong column in. It's still dozens of deaths per case of myocarditis (just not as many dozens). Prior to vaccination being widespread, in the UK, deaths among 30-39 year olds were 185 per 100,000. So dozens of deaths for each case of vaccine induced myocarditis. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported...
      - realreality 5y ago
        That's total deaths, not the death rate, which was 28.9 per 100,000.
  - jb1991 5y ago
    See the sister comment; it seems you (and others) are not reading this chart correctly: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564488
- maxerickson 5y ago
tim333 5y ago
tl;dr hospital cases of myocarditis per million 28 days after: Astra 2 Pfizer 1 Moderna 6 Covid 40
- antocv 5y ago
  Now be a good sport and post the numbers per age group for males
- herbst 5y ago
  Doesn't the COVID number contain people who vaccinated (only) once?
jcbrand 5y ago
> The risks are more evenly balanced in younger persons aged up to 40 years, where we estimated the excess in myocarditis events following SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 10 per million with the excess following a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine being 15 per million So according to this study, if you're under 40 and have taken the Moderna vaccine, you are more likely to develop Myocarditis than after a Covid infection.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  There is also question of severity: > Whilst myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting [0]. The risk observed here is small and confined to the 7-day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. In general, even if you will have very mild infection and you are under 40, COVID-19 can do a lot more damage than vaccine. Long COVID among people that were not hospitalized is quite common (more than 10% after 3 months [1] [2]) with wide ranging symptoms. From loss of smell to being debilitating enough to prevent you from working. And medicine has very little idea what is happening with these people or how to help them. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/
  - native_samples 5y ago
    The claim about 7-day periods is circular: in trials and other studies they tend to assume anything that happens 7 days afterwards isn't related to vaccines, so don't report them, so there's no evidence for anything happening more than 7 days after the vaccines, etc.
  - kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
    How do they know the lifetime risk of Covid-19?
whitepaint 5y ago
I am genuinely curious, if you've had Covid, should you get vaccination? The official source says: "Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare." https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe... So, why is there a need for boosters? And why is there a need for the vaccination if you already had it?
- scotty79 5y ago
  It seems that you should. Check out the chart at the last page of this PDF. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v...
  - peteradio 5y ago
    When I look at that paper and compute for the age group 40-59 I come up with these normalized values: infection severe covid rec 0.614 0.007 boost 0.253 0.002 vacc 2.272 0.014 rec+vacc 0.271 0.006 (No idea how to do a pretty table) Those are normalized values per person-month-at-risk according to whatever definition they use. I don't know if those numbers are high or low in an absolute sense but they should be comparable across rows. They separate the categories of recovered then vaxxed and vaxxed then recovered but I've combined them in sum here because vaxxed then recovered is quite a low statistics. Perhaps this shouldn't be done but the low statistics also would only impact the conclusion in more of a positive direction. That conclusion is, in the case of a recovered person they were 2-3x less likely to get infected if they went to get a shot after recovery than if they didn't. But protection against severe covid didn't really get impacted.
peter_retief 5y ago
I can't figure out what the study found. Is the vaccinated group more likely to develop heart problems?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
scotty79 5y ago
How did they calculate that? What do they take as a baseline for myocarditis? I cant find anywhere any information that they measured how many myocarditis occurences were in people who were not vaccinated and didn't contract covid.
- ImaCake 5y ago
  The study was “self-controlled”. That is, individuals before being exposed to vaccine/covid were their own controls. This is a fairly robust technique if done right. You automatically avoid issues of your controls having different attributes to your test group. But obviously if your whole cohort is a year older after being exposed then the risk of myocarditis is higher purely based on the risk factor of age.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - scotty79 5y ago
    Interesting technique. I'm still not very convinced by this research. That myocarditis is so rare and the increase is so small. People might have changed their behavior in 28 days after getting the vaccine. Younger people especially. They might have started to expose themselves to other people more which might lead to them getting in contact with myriad of other mild viruses that might carry unknown risk of myocarditis.
Argonaut998 5y ago
>People were considered eligible for inclusion in each study cohort if they had received at least one vaccine dose, were at least 16 years old and were admitted to hospital with, or died from, the outcome of interest between 1 December 2020 and 24 August 2021 Am I missing something? There is no control group for unvaccinated people. Who is to say that COVID didn't exacerbate the conditions delivered via the vaccine? Why wouldn't they put an unvaccinated control group? Why is there so much emphasis on myocarditis/pericarditis when the study claims that Cardiac arrhythmias were far more plentiful?
- dablweb 5y ago
  Uh, we don't really have a control group anymore. This whole rollout has been rife with callous disregard for the usual protocols. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... The severity of vaccine-induced myocarditis is far worse than virus-induced too. You have to have a very severe infection for the spike protein to accumulate in your heart, whereas the LNP delivery system gravitates to the heart due to its fat content. We have seen this in various biodistribution studies.
  - fabian2k 5y ago
    The severity of the myocarditis after vaccines was generally described as mild. I also strongly doubt your statements about spike protein distribution, all cells have lipid membranes. The vaccine is injected into the muscle in your arm. Why would it accumulate in the heart? And it is not unusual that you can't do real placebo studies once you have a very effective treatment. Denying effective treatment to people just to be able to do these studies would be extremely unethical.
    - Argonaut998 5y ago
      Myocarditis has an extremely high fatality rate. Why is it considered mild when getting it via COVID/Vaccine as opposed to the usual ways?
tshanmu 5y ago
tl;dr: " Subgroup analyses by age showed that the increased risk of events associated with the two mRNA vaccines was present only in those aged under 40 years. For this age group, we estimated 2 (95% CI 1, 3) and 8 (95%CI 4, 9) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a first dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, and 3 (95% CI 2, 4) and 15 (95%CI 12, 16) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. This compares with ten (95% CI 7, 11) extra cases of myocarditis following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test in those aged under 40 years." "Vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 in adults was associated with a small increase in the risk of myocarditis within a week of receiving the first dose of both adenovirus and mRNA vaccines, and after the second dose of both mRNA vaccines. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a substantial increase in the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis, pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmia."
ninjinxo 5y ago
1) There was a hypothesis (reddit comment, not medical) that a degree of myocarditis might be due to people not resting for the few days after vaccination - especially young men and kids, ignoring very mild fatigue/symptoms to play sport or do physical labouring the next day - overly stressing the heart. 2) I'm surprised the dosage for moderna hasn't been reduced to 50 mcg for first and second doses (especially for young men) since it seems to provide similar protection to the full 100mcg doses: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X21001535#f0015 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X2... 3) I'd wager we end up with more frequent, smaller doses as this goes on. Moderna at 25 mcg was shown to have some protective effect, note however pfizer didn't reach marginal gains in antibody response, with dosages instead being limited by side-effects, but still had some effect at even 1 mcg (standard dose 30 mcg) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 4) A longer series of smaller doses might be preferable for the vaccine hesitant also - if you start getting noteworthy side-effects then you can terminate the programme.
soenkeliebau 5y ago
Aren't most responses not addressing the point of that study? I understand the abstract to say that the likelyhood of heart conditions due to contracting Covid is higher than due to vaccination?
nradov 5y ago
An animal study indicated that most cases of myocarditis associated with COVID-19 vaccination could be caused by incorrect injection technique. So the issue is not with the vaccine per se, but with injecting it into a vein instead of a muscle. This research hasn't been reproduced in humans though, so there could be something else going on. https://www.10news.com/news/in-depth/in-depth-can-a-simple-technique-stop-myocarditis-after-covid-vaccination https://www.10news.com/news/in-depth/in-depth-can-a-simple-t...
eggy 5y ago
Given the CDC projected that more than 146 million estimated total infections of Americans with 1 in 4.0 (95% UI* 3.4 – 4.7) COVID–19 infections reported[1] I think the fraction of those vaccinated and developing myocarditis is even larger than the study shows vs. those who have had COVID and not in the 1 in 4.0 figure above (the other 3/4). That peak of myocarditis in the vaccinated would be even more lonelier at the top of the bar chart! The vaccines were first hopefully going to prevent the spread, remember that? Now we know they don't. They prevent serious illness and hospitalizations, however, as someone who had COVID, is unvaccinated, but is relegated to getting tested weekly and wearing a mask, while the vaccinated, who can spread infection as much as I could, is a travesty of fairness. My very healthy nephew developed myocarditis for 6 weeks a few days after getting vaccinated. My colleague at work twenty years younger than me, healthy, with two vaccinations less than a month old, developed a "break through" infection - what does that even mean anymore? He has had unusually high blood pressure for weeks after his infection. Then he just went and got boosted yesterday! There is no long-term, RCT studies, and the original control groups have been eliminated. Yeah, so test the guy every week with natural immunity and ignore that natural immunity because Fauci, the CDC, and big tech tell you to. Everyone is getting fed up. And now NYS passes mandatory masking again for adults, never mind, we have been forcing the least vulnerable, our children to mask up at school 6 hours a day. Don't tell me kids 11 and younger are at any significant risk unless of course they have a BMI over 35 and diabetes or another comorbidity. I hope the scientists of this Nature article aren't beat down by those who profess "Follow the Science" as they bury any narrative contrary to big pharma, big tech, and mainstream media. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  I think anyone considering a mandate with these numbers should be deeply ashamed of himself. Vaccinating children should be completely off the table in my opinion.
  - eggy 5y ago
    I agree. I am not vaccinating my healthy 2 year-old or 6 year-old child. There's no rational reason at this point. Vaccinated and boosted people can get the grandparents sick too. What has caught me off guard these past few years is tracking it all, until I stop and really pay attention. Given the vaccines don't stop the spread, although it's great that they prevent serious illness and hospitalization, and so many are vaccinated or have natural immunity like myself and my family, why all the panic, masking, and boosting still? Why are the least vulnerable, our young children, being masked all day at school, and now mandated to take vaccines in some states? It's almost criminal. History will reveal this seemingly unavoidable folly in hindsight as a great mistake. The majority of serious illnesses and deaths are the elderly and them and others with comorbidities. There is the outlier young person who has no comorbidities, and is perfectly healthy, but it is a very, very small number. It seems a young male 24 years and younger should have the right to self-assess with their doctor on the risks of myocarditis vs. the 3.8e-5 benefits of getting vaccinated, and certainly not being mandated to be vaccinated. There is also a large number of people like myself who have had COVID, but unlike me they did not feel it enough to go get tested or treated. That will only serve to show how much more the risks are for vaccinated myocarditis. My antibodies are still sitting high a year after my infection and recovery at 116 (IgG), when > 15 is considered an indicative amount to give a positive on the test. I have not had a reinfection (that I have felt or know of), and yet I am forced to test weekly and wear a mask to keep my job. At least 10 people in a company of 150 at this location have had a noticeable infection (I refuse to call it a "break through" infection any longer, it no longer make sense). These 10 all had at least 2 shots, mainly Pfizer, and 4 had boosters! I know SARS-COV-1 from 2003 is in the family, but a different animal, however, they are still testing SARS-COV-1 recovered people from 18 years ago who still have immunity in their T-cells![1] Will we ever learn (or Fauci from his 80s AIDS/AZT fiasco [1.1] (I was in my twenties in BKLYN)to now with the COVID crisis), or is natural immunity thrown overboard for the sake of not discouraging vaccinations, which is cruel from my perspective, and now we know this will not stop the spread anyway, so I wage my natural immunity against anyone's 2 vaccines, and I spot you two more boosters ;) Yes, I know the company line is at least one vaccine and natural immunity gives you super immunity. I don't believe it outweighs the risks for me. One of the people of the 10 mentioned above had a horrible bout of COVID after 2 shots and a booster, and he's 20 years younger than me. I don't drink or smoke. I used to exercise daily (BMI 25), but I have since put on a few pounds (BMI 29) switching from manual work at 40% if the time to office work 60% of the time, to almost 95% office work now and COVID comfort food. A lot of the people under 55 that have had serious illness or died had comorbidities such as obesity and/or diabetes and others. Look for yourself on the CDC website. Download and filter by age and comorbidities or not. You will see that this is being buried. Fat shaming etc. I also read an interesting statistical study that said of the vulnerable that died, if COVID had not accelerated it, the flu or pneumonia would have, and they statistically were likely to die within 2 years of their age given their age and pre-existing comorbidities. Temper the 800,000 US deaths with that number and see how bad you think it is after doing some research. Let that sink in. Look at the UK's NHS site for number of people who died within 28 days of their first positive test for COVID-19 [2]. It's sad but their site and they way they present data is so much better than the CDC's site. We focus so much on number of cases here, and it's hard to put together nice comparisons on the CDC site without downloading the CSV data files and doing it yourself. We live with SARS-COV-1 and MERS, so let's get back to normal. America needs to address its obesity, diabetes, and other health issues if you really want to save more lives or have something to panic about. I am an American BTW. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z [1.1] https://aep.lib.rochester.edu/node/49111 https://aep.lib.rochester.edu/node/49111 [2] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-death_rates_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_age_and_sex https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nati...
mrtri 5y ago
"For over 5% of these deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned on the death certificate. " so covid19 also causing Diabetes, Strokes, Cancer, hearthfailures https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

156 points by mderazon 5y ago

Something else to consider which hasn't been addresses in any studies so far is does the risk of myocarditis change depending on the variant of covid - it's possible omicron is more or less likely to cause it dues to wide range of mutations. This will obviously impact the risk/reward in younger cohorts

HamburgerEmoji 5y ago

Uh oh -- is some stuff from reality actually managing to smash its way into the Hacker News Super Curiosity Zone? Hurry, you better flag it. Here's this, from two months ago. https://rumble.com/vnbv86-winning-the-war-against-therapeutic-nihilism-and-trusted-treatments-vs-unte.html https://rumble.com/vnbv86-winning-the-war-against-therapeuti...

walterbell 5y ago

Ontario, Canada suspended Moderna for 18-24, https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-over-moderna-for-people-18-to-24-effective-immediately-1.5605370 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-1... Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway suspended Moderna for people under 30, https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/11/10/germany-france-restrict-modernas-covid-vaccine-for-under-30s-over-rare-heart-risk-despite-surging-cases/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/11/10/germany-f... Moderna contains 100 mcg of mRNA vs Pfizer's 30 mcg, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/pfizer-moderna-dose-which-vaccine-best/620501/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/pfizer-mo... Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters?

fabian2k 5y ago
The Moderna booster is only 50ug RNA. There is a whole bunch of trials now on mixing vaccines, but of course the number of specific combinations is very large. It does look like mixing works well, and there are some indications that mixing leads to a better response, this has been observed in particular for AZ/Biontech. I got three different vaccines, following the recommendations at the time. So at least here in Germany we do freely mix them.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Same here, started with AZ, got BionTech second and the booster was Moderna. One of the good things right now is, that we have quite a large choice of vaccines at the moment.
- walterbell 5y ago
  > The Moderna booster is only 50ug RNA. Could someone take this Moderna 50ug dose as their 1st/2nd shot?
  - chinathrow 5y ago
    Ask your doctor.
    - throwaway59553 5y ago
      Most regular doctors have no clue about it, as it's not their specialty, they just parrot the governmental institutions official position, such as "take the vaccine". Hence the necessity of long term independent studies on the effect of each vaccine and the combinations of several vaccine, if people mix them when getting a booster.
    - tim333 5y ago
      On of the troubles with anything unconventional is it probably won't be recognised on the various vaccine passes and the like.
- dablweb 5y ago
  Wouldn't mixing significantly reduce your chance at legal recourse should you have a severe reaction?
  - jktogjfnn 5y ago
    Lawsuits against who? The vaccine producers already have immunity. So that leaves you to sue the local authorities, so if they recommended mix-and-match you have cover.
viraptor 5y ago
> Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters? https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/mixing-vaccines-the-study-weve-all https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/mixing-vaccin...
GistNoesis 5y ago
>Are there clinical trials which mix and match vaccines, e.g. as boosters? Why do clinical trials when you can do live trials for free. Just wait a few month and look at the situation in France. France bought a huge stock of Moderna but people there only want Pfizer, so now they have a huge stock of Moderna and a shortage of Pfizer. So to re-balance their inventory they decided that people over 30 can no longer have the choice of what vaccine they get. And they have also recently speed-up vaccination effort by requiring to have a less than 7 month injection/contamination after January the 15th or be severely constrained in daily life. So in about two months, you'll have a huge influx of guinea pigs data. So if you just turned 30 and never vaccinated you are up for the Moderna huge dose that they tell you they consider not safe for people a few days younger than you are, (and the dosage was probably too heavy because it has now been reduced for the boosters).
- walterbell 5y ago
  Thanks for the field report. Wish we could organize a open-source data collection exercise for live trials and input parameters with regional/policy path dependence. That could enable retroactive analysis across inadvertent cohorts.
- dablweb 5y ago
  It's astonishing that the majority of people can look at this situation and not recoil. The whole "mix and match" narrative is just so misguided. I do wonder if it's being pushed as a way to dilute possible lawsuits.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    Random choices, permutations and timing of vendors will make it difficult to determine cause and effect. No control groups. If there are future adverse events, they may be attributed to a specific human rather than a cohort of peers. This could justify more observational surveillance and testing, laying the groundwork for future personalized treatments, including unique vaccines. In that hypothetical scenario, rare injuries could lead to more live trials on those humans.
  - deleted 5y ago

nabla9 5y ago

Summary. >We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower than the 40 extra events per million persons observed following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. (risk increased only among those younger than 40).

funklute 5y ago
> Vaccination increases the risk of myocarditis. Relative to the base-level in a pre-covid world?
- eloff 5y ago
  Yes. According to this same study covid-19 has a 4x higher incidence of myocarditis than the "worst" of the mRNA vaccines. So the smart bet is still get the vaccine. That's not even accounting for all the other effects of a covid illness, including death.
  - Thorrez 5y ago
    I think there's a misunderstanding. funklute was asking about the pre-covid world, but your answer is about people who have covid.
- nabla9 5y ago
  adjusted for calendar time from 1 December 2020 to 24 August 2021
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
trhway 5y ago
>Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. only when covid gets to 25% of population. Until that the vaccine results in higher risk of myocarditis than covid. And if we use cut-off of 40 years age, then the risk is even more worse with vaccine.

echelon_musk 5y ago

Thank you for posting this. I received my 1st Pfizer vaccine in June and around 3 weeks after the vaccine I started experiencing frequent irregular heartbeats. Sometimes it was every day, then sometimes once or twice a week. I still experience ectopic heartbeat now (although much less frequently) as a result of the vaccine 6 months later. I used to drink lots of coffee, but quit all caffeine in my life due to the risk to my heart! I reported this to the yellow card scheme, but I'm very glad to see more research being done and awareness.

matsemann 5y ago
> as a result of the vaccine Can you really know that?
- arein3 5y ago
  Must have been a coincidence
stanislavb 5y ago
Yeah, I think I’m experiencing the same thing :/… I just hope it goes away
chki 5y ago
> I received my 1st Pfizer vaccine in June and around 3 weeks after the vaccine I started experiencing frequent irregular heartbeats. Sometimes it was every day, then sometimes once or twice a week. I still experience ectopic heartbeat now (although much less frequently) as a result of the vaccine 6 months later. Way before Covid I had a panic attack which led me to believe that my heart was not working properly. I got everything checked and it was all good but in the following months I regularly noticed irregularities which have since subsided. I'm almost sure that this was not due to any actual change but the main reason was that I was simply observing my heartbeat much more closely, feeling my heart racing etc. which was in turn actually making my heartbeat more irregular. Of course your problem might be more physiological but I just want to point out that mind and body are closely connected and it's very difficult to observe such an effect and pinpoint it to a certain event (for example the vaccination).

jaidan 5y ago

Australia has been reporting 1 in 10000 rate for myocarditis in 11-17 year olds and is ramping up their campaign to get more high school kids vaccinated. Table 2: https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-09-12-2021 https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safe... The article linked in another reply (https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-over-moderna-for-people-18-to-24-effective-immediately-1.5605370 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-1...) for Canada suggested they stopped the Moderna Vaccines at a rate of 1 in 28000. I wonder, what rates determine when action is taken?

amelius 5y ago
When the rates become higher than for the virus itself.
- teekert 5y ago
  Ideally yes. But keep in mind that many effect (both of the virus and the vaccines) are still not taken into account. Doing that would mean this exact point would move almost constantly, which would be good imho, but I can imagine this does not fly in general.
eloff 5y ago
Keep in mind the covid-19 has a myocarditis rate of 1 in 25000 according to this same study. 4x higher than with the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine - and that's not counting all the other risks that come with a covid infection - including death.
- MarcoZavala 5y ago
- jcbrand 5y ago
  1 in 10000 isn't much less than 1 in 25000. Also, with the booster regime being implemented, you're going to regularly be taking that risk, whereas people rarely (according to Peter McCullough "never") get reinfected with Covid. People also die from the vaccine. There are 18000 reported deaths from the vaccine in VAERs. Just recently a 12 year old schoolgirl in Cuxhaven, Germany died from the vaccine.

roschdal 5y ago

"We found increased risks of myocarditis associated with the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the mRNA-1273 vaccine over the 1–28 days postvaccination period, and after a SARS-CoV-2 positive test." So the Pfizer gave me increased risk of heart inflammation. Thank you very much.

GameOfFrowns 5y ago
At least the manufacturer has immunity.
roschdal 5y ago
Why the downvotes HN? Do you not like facts?
bildung 5y ago
Read the summary again. Even the vaccine with the highest risk only had 1/4 of the risk of proper SARS-CoV-2.
antocv 5y ago
What did you expect, Pfizer wanted to make drug for dealing with a heart problem, hypertension, but made erections by accident instead.
BirdieNZ 5y ago
Decreased* risk of heart inflammation compared to catching Covid without the vaccine.
- Nesco 5y ago
  It seems that the study doesn’t have a control group and everyone studied is _vaccinated_. I don’t know where you found your numbers about the unvaccinated.
  - fsh 5y ago
    This is incorrect. Most of the SARS-CoV-2 positive persons in the study (2,315,669/3,028,867) were unvaccinated at the time of infection.

prohobo 5y ago

Finally, some real information.. Three points of note: 1) The number of Covid infections is likely either over-reported or under-reported. That could push the results in either direction. 2) The end results are an average of men and women; if separated they would show men are more susceptible to myocarditis (higher than 15 per million for <40 in Moderna's case). 3) We don't know how boosters will affect these rates.

ImaCake 5y ago
How can COVID infections be over reported? They are obviously underreported in the total population due to the limitations of testing. Is the over-reporting risk a matter of how they adjusted their data in this study?
- detaro 5y ago
  I could see it happening if your data source works of raw test result statistics, since you don't know how often the same person was tested. But that doesn't sound like it is the case here, since they reference a specific database they use "at individual patient level".
- me_me_me 5y ago
  I think its a mute point anyway, excess deaths are hard to argue statistic. Also hard to explain with any other means than Covid.
  - trompetenaccoun 5y ago
    Interesting point you're making about excess deaths being hard to argue. Have you looked at the data? Because some countries don't show any significant excess (some even record negative excess during the pandemic) while in some other places we're only seeing access deaths since mass vaccination started. Conveniently, many who want to argue that covid vaccines help only pick places where the data seems to show what they want to see, ignoring all the opposite examples and that correlation doesn't imply causation.

gadders 5y ago

On the, er, spicier ends of Telegram people have been keeping logs of football (soccer) players that have been having heart issues recently. There have also been stories about people having heart issues due to "post-pandemic stress disorder" [1] I'm not saying that I think the vaccine causes heart issues, but I definitely think governments wouldn't tell you the truth if it did. [1] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-disorder-heart-conditions-covid-london-physicians-b969436.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-...

zpeti 5y ago
I'd be super interested in the data on this - breaking down these pro athlete issues by - who's vaccinated and hasn't had a positive PCR test - who's vaccinated and has had a positive PCR test - who's unvaccinated Until that is clear, all these stories are basically clickbait. These issues could be caused by covid, the vaccines, or both. We just don't know.
consp 5y ago
> but I definitely think governments wouldn't tell you the truth if it did Think a bit more about this. How many countries, how many people, how many hospitals you would have to silence to make that happen. Also with respect to the football player. As far as I can tell it's been going around quite long and people are just noticing it more due to some highly televised event.
- throwawayacc2 5y ago
  You don’t really need to silence them. Just ignore them and relegate them to the fringes. “What? More and more people are having heart issues after vaccination? Hogwash! It’s post pandemic stress, nothing special, you’re just being a conspiracy theorist! And we all know conspiracy theorist is just one step away from far right and we don’t listen to nazis here”. Sounds familiar?
  - eloff 5y ago
    They can say all that. The old adage about how to tell if a politician is lying - if their lips are moving - applies. But the data cannot simply be hand-waved away by politicians, nor easily controlled in the West. Look at what medical experts say when they publish analysis about the data - and you get as near to the truth as you can reasonably hope.

roschdal 5y ago

ImaCake 5y ago
The much more interesting quote is of the magnitude of events. COVID is much more likely to cause myocarditis: “We estimated an extra two (95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3), one (95% CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million people vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, in the 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million patients in the 28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test”

ppaattrriicckk 5y ago

This probably sounds harsh, but are all vaccine-bashing readers deliberately selectively-illiterate? In the abstract (academic for "TL;DR") it literally states that Covid is between 7 and 40 times more likely to cause Myocarditis. And a lot of you write about palpitations, which can also be caused by stress and anxiety. I'm 30, in good physical shape, and used to have weekly episodes with irregular heartbeats due to severe stress. Now I'm vaccinated (which is for 99.999% of us obviously completely irrelevant to experiencing this, but a lot of commenters draw that conclusion) and the palpitations are gone. Let's not base conclusion on anecdotal evidence, please. For the same reason that my grandpa lived until 85 while smoking since he was 13.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mirker 5y ago
I’ve had palpitations before from having too much caffeine regularly (yes, while stressed).
tudorizer 5y ago
Strange, right? So much focus on edge cases.
whitepaint 5y ago
If you already had Covid, should you get vaccinated?
- y7 5y ago
  Yes. See https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-13 https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-updat...
  - whitepaint 5y ago
    "Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare . " https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe...

intricatedetail 5y ago

I had heart issues, still have shortness of breath and headaches after second dose. I have not reported it but I was close to calling ambulance one night. I lost faith in doctors here. They are laser focused on jabbing everything that moves and apparently they get £15 for each jabbed person. It's disgusting.

Isinlor 5y ago
You should report it.
viraptor 5y ago
You can find the exact billing per vaccine from NHS, (was £12.57 end of last year) but keep in mind that goes to the doctor, nurse, admin staff handling bookings, disposables budget, and all costs related to running the clinic. Doctors see a small percentage of that. The same thing happens for most of GP services. You don't expect them to work for free, do you? For the NHS itself is still likely cheaper than what a meltdown of hospital services would cost.
- intricatedetail 5y ago
  I thought they are paid salary. Isn't giving jabs part of their job?
  - viraptor 5y ago
    A lot are salaried, some aren't, there's a number of models active at the same time. But NHS still has the ability to give incentives for things that are a benefit to everyone, like paying extra for vaccinations, screening for preventable diseases, etc. to give them priority. Also extra pay allows some clinics to run out of hours / weekend vaccination.

antocv 5y ago

Age group 30-39 has higher risk from pfizer than positive covid-19 test, if Im reading this table correctly, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0/tables/1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0/tables/1 ouch.

zpeti 5y ago
And with moderna, 16-29 agegroup risk is 41.4 with vaccine vs 24.4 covid. Wow.
- antocv 5y ago
  But the TL;DR says "take the vaccine its better than covid". Statistics and damn lies.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Edit: See comment below, I put the wrong column in. It's still dozens of deaths per case of myocarditis (just not as many dozens). Prior to vaccination being widespread, in the UK, deaths among 30-39 year olds were 185 per 100,000. So dozens of deaths for each case of vaccine induced myocarditis. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported...
    - realreality 5y ago
      That's total deaths, not the death rate, which was 28.9 per 100,000.
- jb1991 5y ago
  See the sister comment; it seems you (and others) are not reading this chart correctly: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564488
maxerickson 5y ago

tim333 5y ago

tl;dr hospital cases of myocarditis per million 28 days after: Astra 2 Pfizer 1 Moderna 6 Covid 40

antocv 5y ago
Now be a good sport and post the numbers per age group for males
herbst 5y ago
Doesn't the COVID number contain people who vaccinated (only) once?

jcbrand 5y ago

> The risks are more evenly balanced in younger persons aged up to 40 years, where we estimated the excess in myocarditis events following SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 10 per million with the excess following a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine being 15 per million So according to this study, if you're under 40 and have taken the Moderna vaccine, you are more likely to develop Myocarditis than after a Covid infection.

Isinlor 5y ago
There is also question of severity: > Whilst myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting [0]. The risk observed here is small and confined to the 7-day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. In general, even if you will have very mild infection and you are under 40, COVID-19 can do a lot more damage than vaccine. Long COVID among people that were not hospitalized is quite common (more than 10% after 3 months [1] [2]) with wide ranging symptoms. From loss of smell to being debilitating enough to prevent you from working. And medicine has very little idea what is happening with these people or how to help them. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29564815 [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8478214/
- native_samples 5y ago
  The claim about 7-day periods is circular: in trials and other studies they tend to assume anything that happens 7 days afterwards isn't related to vaccines, so don't report them, so there's no evidence for anything happening more than 7 days after the vaccines, etc.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  How do they know the lifetime risk of Covid-19?

whitepaint 5y ago

I am genuinely curious, if you've had Covid, should you get vaccination? The official source says: "Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare." https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe... So, why is there a need for boosters? And why is there a need for the vaccination if you already had it?

scotty79 5y ago
It seems that you should. Check out the chart at the last page of this PDF. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v...
- peteradio 5y ago
  When I look at that paper and compute for the age group 40-59 I come up with these normalized values: infection severe covid rec 0.614 0.007 boost 0.253 0.002 vacc 2.272 0.014 rec+vacc 0.271 0.006 (No idea how to do a pretty table) Those are normalized values per person-month-at-risk according to whatever definition they use. I don't know if those numbers are high or low in an absolute sense but they should be comparable across rows. They separate the categories of recovered then vaxxed and vaxxed then recovered but I've combined them in sum here because vaxxed then recovered is quite a low statistics. Perhaps this shouldn't be done but the low statistics also would only impact the conclusion in more of a positive direction. That conclusion is, in the case of a recovered person they were 2-3x less likely to get infected if they went to get a shot after recovery than if they didn't. But protection against severe covid didn't really get impacted.

peter_retief 5y ago

I can't figure out what the study found. Is the vaccinated group more likely to develop heart problems?

deleted 5y ago
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scotty79 5y ago

How did they calculate that? What do they take as a baseline for myocarditis? I cant find anywhere any information that they measured how many myocarditis occurences were in people who were not vaccinated and didn't contract covid.

ImaCake 5y ago
The study was “self-controlled”. That is, individuals before being exposed to vaccine/covid were their own controls. This is a fairly robust technique if done right. You automatically avoid issues of your controls having different attributes to your test group. But obviously if your whole cohort is a year older after being exposed then the risk of myocarditis is higher purely based on the risk factor of age.
- deleted 5y ago
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- scotty79 5y ago
  Interesting technique. I'm still not very convinced by this research. That myocarditis is so rare and the increase is so small. People might have changed their behavior in 28 days after getting the vaccine. Younger people especially. They might have started to expose themselves to other people more which might lead to them getting in contact with myriad of other mild viruses that might carry unknown risk of myocarditis.

Argonaut998 5y ago

>People were considered eligible for inclusion in each study cohort if they had received at least one vaccine dose, were at least 16 years old and were admitted to hospital with, or died from, the outcome of interest between 1 December 2020 and 24 August 2021 Am I missing something? There is no control group for unvaccinated people. Who is to say that COVID didn't exacerbate the conditions delivered via the vaccine? Why wouldn't they put an unvaccinated control group? Why is there so much emphasis on myocarditis/pericarditis when the study claims that Cardiac arrhythmias were far more plentiful?

dablweb 5y ago
Uh, we don't really have a control group anymore. This whole rollout has been rife with callous disregard for the usual protocols. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/969143015/long-term-studies-of-covid-19-vaccines-hurt-by-placebo-recipients-getting-immuni https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430... The severity of vaccine-induced myocarditis is far worse than virus-induced too. You have to have a very severe infection for the spike protein to accumulate in your heart, whereas the LNP delivery system gravitates to the heart due to its fat content. We have seen this in various biodistribution studies.
- fabian2k 5y ago
  The severity of the myocarditis after vaccines was generally described as mild. I also strongly doubt your statements about spike protein distribution, all cells have lipid membranes. The vaccine is injected into the muscle in your arm. Why would it accumulate in the heart? And it is not unusual that you can't do real placebo studies once you have a very effective treatment. Denying effective treatment to people just to be able to do these studies would be extremely unethical.
  - Argonaut998 5y ago
    Myocarditis has an extremely high fatality rate. Why is it considered mild when getting it via COVID/Vaccine as opposed to the usual ways?

tshanmu 5y ago

tl;dr: " Subgroup analyses by age showed that the increased risk of events associated with the two mRNA vaccines was present only in those aged under 40 years. For this age group, we estimated 2 (95% CI 1, 3) and 8 (95%CI 4, 9) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a first dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, and 3 (95% CI 2, 4) and 15 (95%CI 12, 16) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. This compares with ten (95% CI 7, 11) extra cases of myocarditis following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test in those aged under 40 years." "Vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 in adults was associated with a small increase in the risk of myocarditis within a week of receiving the first dose of both adenovirus and mRNA vaccines, and after the second dose of both mRNA vaccines. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a substantial increase in the risk of hospitalization or death from myocarditis, pericarditis and cardiac arrhythmia."

ninjinxo 5y ago

1) There was a hypothesis (reddit comment, not medical) that a degree of myocarditis might be due to people not resting for the few days after vaccination - especially young men and kids, ignoring very mild fatigue/symptoms to play sport or do physical labouring the next day - overly stressing the heart. 2) I'm surprised the dosage for moderna hasn't been reduced to 50 mcg for first and second doses (especially for young men) since it seems to provide similar protection to the full 100mcg doses: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X21001535#f0015 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X2... 3) I'd wager we end up with more frequent, smaller doses as this goes on. Moderna at 25 mcg was shown to have some protective effect, note however pfizer didn't reach marginal gains in antibody response, with dosages instead being limited by side-effects, but still had some effect at even 1 mcg (standard dose 30 mcg) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 4) A longer series of smaller doses might be preferable for the vaccine hesitant also - if you start getting noteworthy side-effects then you can terminate the programme.

soenkeliebau 5y ago

Aren't most responses not addressing the point of that study? I understand the abstract to say that the likelyhood of heart conditions due to contracting Covid is higher than due to vaccination?

nradov 5y ago

An animal study indicated that most cases of myocarditis associated with COVID-19 vaccination could be caused by incorrect injection technique. So the issue is not with the vaccine per se, but with injecting it into a vein instead of a muscle. This research hasn't been reproduced in humans though, so there could be something else going on. https://www.10news.com/news/in-depth/in-depth-can-a-simple-technique-stop-myocarditis-after-covid-vaccination https://www.10news.com/news/in-depth/in-depth-can-a-simple-t...

eggy 5y ago

Given the CDC projected that more than 146 million estimated total infections of Americans with 1 in 4.0 (95% UI* 3.4 – 4.7) COVID–19 infections reported[1] I think the fraction of those vaccinated and developing myocarditis is even larger than the study shows vs. those who have had COVID and not in the 1 in 4.0 figure above (the other 3/4). That peak of myocarditis in the vaccinated would be even more lonelier at the top of the bar chart! The vaccines were first hopefully going to prevent the spread, remember that? Now we know they don't. They prevent serious illness and hospitalizations, however, as someone who had COVID, is unvaccinated, but is relegated to getting tested weekly and wearing a mask, while the vaccinated, who can spread infection as much as I could, is a travesty of fairness. My very healthy nephew developed myocarditis for 6 weeks a few days after getting vaccinated. My colleague at work twenty years younger than me, healthy, with two vaccinations less than a month old, developed a "break through" infection - what does that even mean anymore? He has had unusually high blood pressure for weeks after his infection. Then he just went and got boosted yesterday! There is no long-term, RCT studies, and the original control groups have been eliminated. Yeah, so test the guy every week with natural immunity and ignore that natural immunity because Fauci, the CDC, and big tech tell you to. Everyone is getting fed up. And now NYS passes mandatory masking again for adults, never mind, we have been forcing the least vulnerable, our children to mask up at school 6 hours a day. Don't tell me kids 11 and younger are at any significant risk unless of course they have a BMI over 35 and diabetes or another comorbidity. I hope the scientists of this Nature article aren't beat down by those who profess "Follow the Science" as they bury any narrative contrary to big pharma, big tech, and mainstream media. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

raxxorrax 5y ago
I think anyone considering a mandate with these numbers should be deeply ashamed of himself. Vaccinating children should be completely off the table in my opinion.
- eggy 5y ago
  I agree. I am not vaccinating my healthy 2 year-old or 6 year-old child. There's no rational reason at this point. Vaccinated and boosted people can get the grandparents sick too. What has caught me off guard these past few years is tracking it all, until I stop and really pay attention. Given the vaccines don't stop the spread, although it's great that they prevent serious illness and hospitalization, and so many are vaccinated or have natural immunity like myself and my family, why all the panic, masking, and boosting still? Why are the least vulnerable, our young children, being masked all day at school, and now mandated to take vaccines in some states? It's almost criminal. History will reveal this seemingly unavoidable folly in hindsight as a great mistake. The majority of serious illnesses and deaths are the elderly and them and others with comorbidities. There is the outlier young person who has no comorbidities, and is perfectly healthy, but it is a very, very small number. It seems a young male 24 years and younger should have the right to self-assess with their doctor on the risks of myocarditis vs. the 3.8e-5 benefits of getting vaccinated, and certainly not being mandated to be vaccinated. There is also a large number of people like myself who have had COVID, but unlike me they did not feel it enough to go get tested or treated. That will only serve to show how much more the risks are for vaccinated myocarditis. My antibodies are still sitting high a year after my infection and recovery at 116 (IgG), when > 15 is considered an indicative amount to give a positive on the test. I have not had a reinfection (that I have felt or know of), and yet I am forced to test weekly and wear a mask to keep my job. At least 10 people in a company of 150 at this location have had a noticeable infection (I refuse to call it a "break through" infection any longer, it no longer make sense). These 10 all had at least 2 shots, mainly Pfizer, and 4 had boosters! I know SARS-COV-1 from 2003 is in the family, but a different animal, however, they are still testing SARS-COV-1 recovered people from 18 years ago who still have immunity in their T-cells![1] Will we ever learn (or Fauci from his 80s AIDS/AZT fiasco [1.1] (I was in my twenties in BKLYN)to now with the COVID crisis), or is natural immunity thrown overboard for the sake of not discouraging vaccinations, which is cruel from my perspective, and now we know this will not stop the spread anyway, so I wage my natural immunity against anyone's 2 vaccines, and I spot you two more boosters ;) Yes, I know the company line is at least one vaccine and natural immunity gives you super immunity. I don't believe it outweighs the risks for me. One of the people of the 10 mentioned above had a horrible bout of COVID after 2 shots and a booster, and he's 20 years younger than me. I don't drink or smoke. I used to exercise daily (BMI 25), but I have since put on a few pounds (BMI 29) switching from manual work at 40% if the time to office work 60% of the time, to almost 95% office work now and COVID comfort food. A lot of the people under 55 that have had serious illness or died had comorbidities such as obesity and/or diabetes and others. Look for yourself on the CDC website. Download and filter by age and comorbidities or not. You will see that this is being buried. Fat shaming etc. I also read an interesting statistical study that said of the vulnerable that died, if COVID had not accelerated it, the flu or pneumonia would have, and they statistically were likely to die within 2 years of their age given their age and pre-existing comorbidities. Temper the 800,000 US deaths with that number and see how bad you think it is after doing some research. Let that sink in. Look at the UK's NHS site for number of people who died within 28 days of their first positive test for COVID-19 [2]. It's sad but their site and they way they present data is so much better than the CDC's site. We focus so much on number of cases here, and it's hard to put together nice comparisons on the CDC site without downloading the CSV data files and doing it yourself. We live with SARS-COV-1 and MERS, so let's get back to normal. America needs to address its obesity, diabetes, and other health issues if you really want to save more lives or have something to panic about. I am an American BTW. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z [1.1] https://aep.lib.rochester.edu/node/49111 https://aep.lib.rochester.edu/node/49111 [2] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-death_rates_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_age_and_sex https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nati...

mrtri 5y ago

"For over 5% of these deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned on the death certificate. " so covid19 also causing Diabetes, Strokes, Cancer, hearthfailures https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm